Article: Twins Claim 1B CJ Cron

[PseudoSABR]

 

You don't seem to believe that argument in this thread?

Yes, I do.  When the difference is between 5 and 20 million, or whatever Cruz will get.   

 

What more productive player do you propose for 5 million? 

[DocBauer]

True, it's reasonable to not count on Rooker much at all, let alone to start the season. But he's 24 and in the high minors so I'd be surprised if we didn't see him at some point.

And maybe not at first base, maybe I'm being optimistic.

I am also optimistic about Rooker. There is a reason the Twins drafted him twice. And the early returns have been encouraging and enticing. He's shown a really good bat with power and the ability to make adjustments. And his age doesn't really bother me because of the production be has shown and his adaptability only a season and a half in. AA pitching is way above what anyone sees in college. Especially on a daily basis.

 

Now, if he suddenly stagnated, then I will worry. But I've always felt he was looking at a cup of coffee in 2019 with a possible breakthrough in 2020. They say the biggest adjustment is to AA ball. If that's true, even with a late season slump, he could be ready mid-season 2019. Let the staff work with him and find a place for him at that point.

[Mike Sixel]

While I am not sure I am in love with the move, I would have preferred another OF, and for Austin, Kepler, new OF, Cave, Sano to all play in the field and DH. Now they have two DH/1B only players on the roster. Which, imo, doesn't make much sense for a "meh" team to do.......so, as I think about it more, I like it less. 

 

This is not the Brewers bringing in more OF (that can play LF, RF, DH, even 1B in a pinch)......it's much less flexible than that. 

 

I would bet that Cron outhits Austin, if pressed, so there's that. Maybe Austin is gone. But, I'm not sure that 4.5MM difference is worth it, to a team that watches every penny.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Austin had far fewer at bats.  Cron played more last season than he ever has. 

 

If Cron being DFA'd by TB counts as a strike, so does being traded for Lance Lynn.  /sarcasm-kinda

 

I doubt Cron prevents us from signing a RHed OFer.  Again, we have holes at 1B/DH.  We do not have plenty of corner infield bats.  

 

So, 5 OF and two 1B/DH only players are on your roster? That seems unlikely.

 

Odds Cron outhits Austidillo, and outplays him at catcher, 1B, 2B, OF? 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yes, I do.  When the difference is between 5 and 20 million, or whatever Cruz will get.   

 

What more productive player do you propose for 5 million? 

 

One that plays a different position.  Like outfield.  Or first and third.  

 

We already have a right handed hitting 1B who put up a .782 OPS and makes the league minimum.  Cron is redundant and we paid 5M for that redundancy.  To use your phrase - I'd rather use that 5M to chase wins in the bullpen, outfield, or other positions.  We won't get many wins for that 5M increase over Austin.  

 

MLB teams simply do not have the space on a 25 man roster for redundancy unless the guys are ridiculously good.  And that adjective does not fit Cron.

Edited November 27, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[cmoss84]

At age 28, Cron hit .307 with .929 ops against lefties. For a good team. Most of you are saying Austin did pretty much the same thing...or has potential to do the same thing without spending $5 million.

I'll take my chances on Cron far more than Austin. What has Austin done to make you guys think he is as good as Cron?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, I do.  When the difference is between 5 and 20 million, or whatever Cruz will get.   

 

What more productive player do you propose for 5 million? 

 

Or, they could spend $5MM more on their preferred SP.......

[PseudoSABR]

 

One that plays a different position.  Like outfield.  Or first and third.  

 

We already have a right handed hitting 1B who put up a .782 OPS and makes the league minimum.  Cron is redundant and we paid 5M for that redundancy.  

 

MLB teams simply do not have the space on a 25 man roster for redundancy unless the guys are ridiculously good.  And that adjective does not fit Cron.

Still haven't looked at the splits, I see.  And still making a lot of Austin's short showing of the Twins.  

 

I don't count on Austin for anything, and because of that, Cron is not redundant.

Edited November 27, 2018 by PseudoSABR

[Vanimal46]

It's the end of November! Redundancy will be figured out in March. The money means nothing until sometime in spring training.

Hey now, the money adds up! If they release him in ST they still have to pay him ~$500k for him to go away. That's a lot of dome dogs.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Still haven't looked at the splits, I see.

 

Are the splits worth 5M?  If not, I don't see the point.

 

Take that 5M and add it to a bid for a reliever.  You know, chase wins where you can rather than add redundancy.

[PseudoSABR]

 

So, 5 OF and two 1B/DH only players are on your roster? That seems unlikely.

 

Odds Cron outhits Austidillo, and outplays him at catcher, 1B, 2B, OF? 

There's lots of ways the roster can shake out.  The Twins aren't guaranteeing the contract to Cron or Austin.  Grossman is probably the odd man out, given Cron's splits and similar cost.  Austidillo still has options so he's part of the equation regardless if he's on the opening day roster.  

 

And it's worth emphasizing, this will not be the Twins only move.  

[Vanimal46]

At age 28, Cron hit .307 with .929 ops against lefties. For a good team. Most of you are saying Austin did pretty much the same thing...or has potential to do the same thing without spending $5 million.

I'll take my chances on Cron far more than Austin. What has Austin done to make you guys think he is as good as Cron?

Couldn't this have been said about Cron before he received 500 at-bats last season?

[PseudoSABR]

 

Are the splits worth 5M?  If not, I don't see the point.

 

Take that 5M and add it to a bid for a reliever.  You know, chase wins where you can rather than add redundancy.

Indeed they might be.  Cron hits lefthanders significantly better than Austin.  Want 5M, cut Grossman.   And I don't anticipate 5M relievers being difference makers (without a longer commitment).  

[cmoss84]

.255 34 bombs 105 rbi 18 million

 

.250 28 bombs 80 rbi 5 million

 

.230 25 bombs 70 rbi 550k

 

Who do you choose? To each their own...

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's lots of ways the roster can shake out.  The Twins aren't guaranteeing the contract to Cron or Austin.  Grossman is probably the odd man out, given Cron's splits and similar cost.  Austidillo still has options so he's part of the equation regardless if he's on the opening day roster.  

 

And it's worth emphasizing, this will not be the Twins only move.  

 

Rosario, Buxton, Cave, Kepler, Austin, Cron are all VERY likely to be on this team in April. It seems hard to believe they'll add another OF. I would have preferred another OF, since I have doubts about EVERY single name there.......you seem to think they will still add another OF. If not 5, who from the above is not on the roster?

 

And, how do you have all those players, and Austidillo and Gaver and Castro on the roster at the same time?

[Mike Sixel]

 

.255 34 bombs 105 rbi 18 million

.250 28 bombs 80 rbi 5 million

.230 25 bombs 70 rbi 550k

Who do you choose? To each their own...

 

I need a lot more stats than that, plus playing time, plus positional options to make any comment. Oh, and age, and if there are options left.....lots more data.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Couldn't this have been said about Cron before he received 500 at-bats last season?

Cron has shown similar production as Austin in many more at bats prior to last season's "breakout."  Basically, we're suggesting there's evidence that Austin can do what Cron did last season, without even having Cron's prior production to last season.  

 

In any case, if Cron does prove to be redundant during Spring Training, cut him.  There's very little downside, beyond not signing another 1b/DH type (sorry Chief!).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Cron has shown similar production as Austin in many more at bats prior to last season's "breakout."  Basically, we're suggesting there's evidence that Austin can do what Cron did last season, without even having Cron's prior production to last season.  

 

In any case, if Cron does prove to be redundant during Spring Training, cut him.  There's very little downside, beyond not signing another 1b/DH type (sorry Chief!).

 

You don't think that $5MM is now spent, and coming off what they would spend on other FAs or trades? I do. so, it's not just not signing another 1bDH, it's not spending that $5MM someplace else too.

[Danchat]

Boy, I'm surprised to see how much debate there's been over this move. It just makes too much sense to me to claim this guy for nothing and pay him $5M. The only thing the Twins have at 1B/DH is a post-hype prospect who's out of options... they can rotate at 1B and DH, there's plenty of room for the two of them. They don't have a DH option at the moment and I doubt they're signing Cruz. I think it's smart to have two guys with decently-high upsides.

 

I thought Twins Daily's thoughts on Tyler Austin were that he wasn't ready for a starting job and he strikes out too much... but it seems he has a lot more supporters than I thought. 2019 is going to be a big season for him. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

Or, they could spend $5MM more on their preferred SP.......

What SP worth having is going to get 5MM a year?  I doubt 5MM this year will keep the Twins from spending big on SP if they really intend to.  

[PseudoSABR]

 

You don't think that $5MM is now spent, and coming off what they would spend on other FAs or trades? I do. so, it's not just not signing another 1bDH, it's not spending that $5MM someplace else too.

As I just said, I think 5MM is a pretty marginal cost.  If the Twins will hand out a big contract say a 100MM contract, this would represent a mere 5%.   

 

And again, you can get nearly the savings by cutting Grossman loose.

[Vanimal46]

Cron has shown similar production as Austin in many more at bats prior to last season's "breakout." Basically, we're suggesting there's evidence that Austin can do what Cron did last season, without even having Cron's prior production to last season.

 

In any case, if Cron does prove to be redundant during Spring Training, cut him. There's very little downside, beyond not signing another 1b/DH type (sorry Chief!).

I don't know if it's wrong to project Austin and Cron producing similar numbers in a scenario where they each have 500 ABs...

 

Also, admittedly I'm still a little jaded from the past regime's handling of players without options remaining. Mainly, they stuck like glue, roster construction be damned. I haven't paid as close attention to how Falvine handles players without options. If there's redundancy, I want a quick resolution.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Indeed they might be.  Cron hits lefthanders significantly better than Austin.  Want 5M, cut Grossman.   And I don't anticipate 5M relievers being difference makers (without a longer commitment).  

 

You can cut Grossman irrespective of adding Cron.  So that really doesn't fly.

 

5M against next year's budget is not a marginal cost in adding a bullpen player.  It could be as much as 40-50% of what your offer is per year.  Ditto for many of the MIF guys we might consider.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As I just said, I think 5MM is a pretty marginal cost.  If the Twins will hand out a big contract say a 100MM contract, this would represent a mere 5%.   

 

And again, you can get nearly the savings by cutting Grossman loose.

 

They have about 30-40MM in money available, give or take. $5MM is somewhere between 12 and 17 percent of their entire FA budget. Give or take. 

 

And, they should have cut Grossman anyway, and added $4MM to their FA budget, that's a 10-15% increase in budget.

[PseudoSABR]

 

You can cut Grossman irrespective of adding Cron.  So that really doesn't fly.

 

5M against next year's budget is not a marginal cost in adding a bullpen player.  It could be as much as 40-50% of what your offer is per year.  Ditto for many of the MIF guys we might consider.

And you can cut Cron irrespective of Austin.  Go figure.  We actually have both DH/1B to fill, and so far you're asking us to roll with Austin and who?

Edited November 27, 2018 by PseudoSABR

[PseudoSABR]

 

They have about 30-40MM in money available, give or take. $5MM is somewhere between 12 and 17 percent of their entire FA budget. Give or take. 

 

And, they should have cut Grossman anyway, and added $4MM to their FA budget, that's a 10-15% increase in budget.

So you're literally budgeting zero dollars to 1b/DH?  Awesome.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you're literally budgeting zero dollars to 1b/DH?  Awesome.

 

Austin, Kepler, Garver, Sano, Astudillo.....that's what I've said all off season. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

And you can cut Cron irrespective of Austin.  Go figure.

 

If he's so easy to cut, and offers so little, I don't see the point in adding him.  

 

I don't see how someone can know that roster spots are limited and budgets are finite and make this point?

 

He DOES have real costs.  And 5M is NOT marginal for many of the needs on this roster

Edited November 27, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[cmoss84]

.255 34 bombs 105 rbi 18 million

.250 28 bombs 80 rbi 5 million

.230 25 bombs 70 rbi 550k

Who do you choose? To each their own...

Option A DH only. 140 games.

 

Option B split DH/1B. 140 games. Average defense.

 

Option C split DH/1B. 140 games. Below average defense.

[dgwills]

 

They have a player that many say will be better next year. And, maybe they want to open room for their hybrid player to play 1B sometimes too. Also, maybe they'll spend the money they save. Oh, and they won 90 games last year........in the hardest division in the sport. They must be doing something right.....

Sounds like what the Twin's said when they let go of David Ortiz.  Not that Cron is the same player, but the reasons are the same.