Article: Rundown: Judy From Big Lake, Baldelli-Buxton Meeting and More

[Riverbrian]

 

How can anyone look at most of the league's elite teams like Houston, Boston, Cleveland , the Yankees or the Dodgers and think that relying on the farm system hasn't worked out?

 

Yeah... That's the real sad part to me. It isn't the money the big boys are spending... it's the players they are developing and acquiring with that development. 

 

This is where they are kicking our butts. Yeah, they can comfortably eat a Matt Kemp contract if they want and still operate full speed ahead... but do they have to have the Bellingers, Seagers and Buehlers too? Why can't we have some of those guys? Do they have to find Max Muncy, Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor and Justin Turner off the scrap heap and get Bellinger, Seager, Buehler plus have the money to eat a Matt Kemp contract. 

 

When I say where are our superstars... This is what I mean and it has nothing to do with money. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I was talking about MN.......of course you need to develop players, but you also need to sign FAs and make trades for long term assets, not just rentals, and not just 1 year deals. 

 

Even the largest markets have recognized the need to build from the farm system and develop players. The fact the Twins have not done a good job of this has absolutely nothing to do with if it is the solution. Do you realize you are suggesting we pursue less effective practices because we did a poor job executing fundamentally better practices. How about if we get better at the most effective practices.

[USAFChief]

How can anyone look at most of the league's elite teams like Houston, Boston, Cleveland , the Yankees or the Dodgers and think that relying on the farm system hasn't worked out?

None of those rely solely on the farm system.

 

All of them take what they can get from the farm, gladly, and then find whatever else they need. They don’t wait until they’re “one player away,” they don’t make excuses about how hard it is, how expensive it is, how inefficient it is.

 

The idea the Twins can rely on the farm system is wishful thinking. Nobody does.

[USAFChief]

Even the largest markets have recognized the need to build from the farm system and develop players. The fact the Twins have not done a good job of this has absolutely nothing to do with if it is the solution. Do you realize you are suggesting we pursue less effective practices because we did a poor job executing fundamentally better practices. How about if we get better at the most effective practices.

We need to get better at all methods of player acquisition. Trades, draft, develop, international talent, and yes, the entire range of free agents, from bargain basement finds to top of the line proven talent.

[mikelink45]

This is depressing.  I guess my Thanksgiving paper on what I am most thankful for will not be Pohlad, Levine, Falvey, the Twins...Way to be a Grinch.  I want to hear that we are going to be smart and we are going to compete..  In fact, if we take the goofy money that Machado and Harper will get and invest it in a lot of secondary FAs we will compete and we will be better.  

 

The Yankees moved on Paxton - I would have offered Sano and hope that they read all his early press clippings.  

 

This is a terrible situation - not tanking, not winning, what are we doing?  Oh ya - we are hiring new coaches.  Big deal.  Is there any evidence that coaches really make that difference in MLB?

 

Thank you Judy, at least one person is refreshing and honest in this winter of our discontent.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Even the largest markets have recognized the need to build from the farm system and develop players. The fact the Twins have not done a good job of this has absolutely nothing to do with if it is the solution. Do you realize you are suggesting we pursue less effective practices because we did a poor job executing fundamentally better practices. How about if we get better at the most effective practices.

 

how about both? I don't think anyone, here or anywhere, has said don't improve drafting and developing players. No one. Not one person. I don't even know why we are having this conversation, of course they can't afford Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart type outcomes any more. That's pretty much assumed, and has nothing to do with signing FAs or trading for players (either direction, acquiring minor or major league talent). If we want, we can start a thread about improving drafting.....and developing....and coaching.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

OK, we know the Pohlad's are crap owners. We've always known that. And Falvey and Levine know it too.

 

Last year, Levine made comments about not being a high-payroll team. Falvey came from Cleveland and saw how the teams were built up without using free agency. These two guys understand the issue and they've both accepted it. It's an open question as to whether they can create something like Terry Ryan managed but I'm not quite ready to give up on them. Yet. But I think we'll have to see some smart trades rather than hope for high priced talent coming in. I'm not going to dump on Levine for his comments about building. It is what it is.

we’re in an 8 year rebuild with no end in site. True, Falvey and Levine were hired because year 6 wasn’t any better than year 1 under TR, but that shouldn’t give the FO license to shoot for the decade.

[nicksaviking]

None of those rely solely on the farm system.

All of them take what they can get from the farm, gladly, and then find whatever else they need. They don’t wait until they’re “one player away,” they don’t make excuses about how hard it is, how expensive it is, how inefficient it is.

The idea the Twins can rely on the farm system is wishful thinking. Nobody does.

Sale, Verlander, Stanton, and Andrew Miller were all acquired when those clubs were front runners, not when those clubs were wallowing in disappointment as we currently find the Twins.

[DocBauer]

Just a few comments to toss out:

 

1] "Building" IS different than "re-building". And this differential is not just semantics. It's what the new FO talked about from the day they were hired. Yes, maybe they were handcuffed initially by keeping Molitor. But they have not only made changes in FO and milb personnel, but they have also replaced Molitor and most of the previous on the field staff. They have had a couple of good to excellent drafts, and have played with finances to obtain players, have eaten portions of contracts, made smart FA signings that didn't work out the way anyone wanted, and then spun those players to acquire additional prospects/players, (though I'm still upset about Escobar and Pressly).

 

They HAVE been aggressive in many areas, and thus far, continue to be so. While we may not like every move made, they are not laid back in comfy seats. So I feel "building" is pretty darn accurate.

 

2] Pohlad may be very, very intelligent. But he is also a very, very poor public speaker. At least off the cuff. The Twins FO didn't sign FA to have a record payroll in 2018 without approval from ownership. But if you have something to say in regard to Mauer's contract being off tbe books...along with others...that you don't feel the $25M is just there to spend because you are looking at extensions, future contracts, the RIGHT FA, a possible BIG mid season trade, etc, then just say so! If you truly believe in the players on hand, the players coming up, and the intelligence in your FO to build the team, then say so! If you can't do that, then get someone to write your material or stay away from public settings.

 

3] Baldelli is going to meet with Buxton. Tremendous! He should! Where is special consultant Hunter in this. He has nothing to offer?

[Jacksson]

Can't wait to get food at the new Bald Deli.

[Jacksson]

The Pohlads have boatloads of money that has been earned off the backs of the unsuspecting

citizens of the Twin Cities, every time they: took a bus, went to a bank, drank a Pepsi or saw the Twins play.

When Carl was alive, he could have opened the purse strings anytime to field a winner for Eloise.

He didn't. Neither will his kid.

The Twins could spend up to the Luxury Tax limit of $206MM without any MLB repercussions.

They won't.

 

The Pohlad family embraces the "Fred Flintstone" philosophy of business,"You're in the business army now, your only friend is a BUCK and the more BUCKs you've GOT, the more FRIENDS you've GOT."

 

They prefer to have the business "pay" for itself, when in reality, the operating loss incurred

by spending in excess of revenues, could be offset against earnings in other businesses they own

so that the operating loss of the Twins would DECREASE the overall income tax bill on all their holdings.

While not "free money", those tax savings would DECREASE the fiscal hit of

overspending in proportion to their effective tax rate.

The over spending on the Twins is subsidized by income tax savings.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Jacksson

[Penthang]

The way I hope Pohlad meant when he answered the question about Joes salary coming off the books is that they were already upswing that money towards a productive player so it wasn’t more money available…it was the same amount of money that was being used that could now be used differently. That’s what I hope he ment and just said very badly.

[mikelink45]

I keep reading that the FO was handcuffed by keeping Molitor.  My BS meter rings everytime I read it.  No they were not.  They hired all the coaches around him and now have left many of them go.  They signed Belisle and Giminez and Wilson.  They struck out on the free agents.  They made some good minor league trades, but we lost Escobar.  

 

Nothing prevented them from making many moves and they made some, but not enough.  Molitor was one piece.  Tell me where the greatness was in the bullpen, tell me where the runs were when we needed them.  A few bunts did not eliminate them, in fact with all the shifts I say bunt like crazy.  

 

Molitor tried the opener and other strategies, but when your best is Moya or Mejia that is not going to do it.  When you have already burned out Hildenberger do you want him to do the same to Rogers?  Who else do you trust.   

 

Molitor was not deserving of MOY nor is he deserving of the constant grumbles and blame. 

[Number3]

It is a shame that anyone who owns,or is considering owning, any sports franchise would do so for any other reason than their love of and appreciation of the sport itself. The objective in ownership SHOULD be nothing other than to put the best team on the field they possibly can period. Beating the other teams (and the other owners) should be the driving force and actually making money in the process should be the result, not the objective. Unfortunately, the "bean counters" ( as we used to call accounting when I was in sales) have taken over, not just the Twins but most professional sports teams. If ROI, not W-L, is the primary consideration, said owner(s) should find some other avenue for their endeavors.

Pohlads...please sell the Minnesota Twins to some one or some group who actually loves the game of baseball. (Ditto Dan Snyder, Washington Redskins, football and many others).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Perhaps contraction is still a viable plan.

If the owner doesn't have the customer (fan) first of mind, then what is the point? just fold up shop... The thing is, the Twins org keeps renovating TF and they did make a change at GM, so clearly St Peter gets it. I'm just not sure JP does.

 

I don't think JP knows the difference between a business and an investment. When he gets asked about his investment by sports media, the media members don't want to know about his ROI, they want to know about the business of the Twins. Successful business delight their customer. Successful investments make money for their shareholders and customer service is entirely out of the equation.

 

So why do we continue to get business questions of the investor instead of the business man? Also, I wonder at what threshold does the approval process for outlays escalate from DSP to JP? Is it functional, or dollar value? Question 3, the deal for Target Field tied the Twins to the stadium for 30 years, negating contraction, why doesn't JP sell? The team was purchased for 44 mil, it's worth 1.1 bil - I don't care who owns the team as long as the lease holds the team to TF.

 

https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

[gunnarthor]

 

we’re in an 8 year rebuild with no end in site. True, Falvey and Levine were hired because year 6 wasn’t any better than year 1 under TR, but that shouldn’t give the FO license to shoot for the decade.

We're not in year 8. The Twins were nearly in the playoffs in 2015 and were in the playoffs in 2017. The rebuild is over. The Twins should be thinking about the AL Central this offseason. Levine is correct when he says they aren't rebuilding. They need to add talent, figure out why some talent hasn't responded like we thought and keep Buxton healthy. 

 

Understanding that ownership isn't going to be part of the solution doesn't mean that the FO can't solve these problems. We should expect them to do so. But it does mean that the FO probably can't rely on large payrolls the way most competitive teams have. They'll probably have to follow the Terry Ryan model in the 2000s and the recent Cleveland Indians model - which is why they hired Falvey in the first place. I'm honestly not sure if Falvey and Levine can do it but I'm not ready to give up on them yet but this should be a big offseason for them. They did a good thing in getting rid of Molitor and Baldeli seems like a guy who might be able to relate to the talent we have. But who knows, maybe we get another total system failure. 

[laloesch]

 

TR said on numerous occasions, anytime he went to the Pohlads with a request he always got it. For those who don't know, we got Sano because we were the only team that would take him, not knowing exactly how old he was at the time. The Pohlads are basically absentee owners. It could be worse.

 

I find most of his statements to be cryptic.  He's not dumb that's for sure.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

We're not in year 8. The Twins were nearly in the playoffs in 2015 and were in the playoffs in 2017. The rebuild is over. The Twins should be thinking about the AL Central this offseason. Levine is correct when he says they aren't rebuilding. They need to add talent, figure out why some talent hasn't responded like we thought and keep Buxton healthy. 

 

Understanding that ownership isn't going to be part of the solution doesn't mean that the FO can't solve these problems. We should expect them to do so. But it does mean that the FO probably can't rely on large payrolls the way most competitive teams have. They'll probably have to follow the Terry Ryan model in the 2000s and the recent Cleveland Indians model - which is why they hired Falvey in the first place. I'm honestly not sure if Falvey and Levine can do it but I'm not ready to give up on them yet but this should be a big offseason for them. They did a good thing in getting rid of Molitor and Baldeli seems like a guy who might be able to relate to the talent we have. But who knows, maybe we get another total system failure. 

As of today, the Twins have 60-65 mil committed for 2019 and to really compete the roster needs to change 30% with significant questions about 2/3 of the cornerstone players. If that's not a rebuild, what is?

[Major League Ready]

 

We need to get better at all methods of player acquisition. Trades, draft, develop, international talent, and yes, the entire range of free agents, from bargain basement finds to top of the line proven talent.

I am not sure of the definition of top of line talent but here is a list of the bottom half of MLB in terms of revenue.  How many top of the line FAs have these teams signed in say the last 5 years which would equate to 80 years for a single team.  The Dbacks signed Greinke, so there is one.  Of course, they had just signed a 1.5B TV contract but let's ignore that for this exercise.  They did manage to get to the playoffs one year and had a 500 record during Greinke's tenure and now he is a detriment for the next 3 years but we can ignore that too.

 

Show me examples of "top of the line" FAs have these teams signed over the past 5 years. That would indicate to me that it is a viable strategy and it's the Twins organization that is the problem. We need to define top of the line. I take that to mean the top 3-5 in total contract dollars each year.

 

Oakland Athletics .... $210
Miami Marlins .......... $219
Tampa Bay Rays ..... $219
Cincinnati Reds ....... $243
Kansas City ............. $245
Baltimore Orioles ..... $252
Milwaukee Brewers .. $255
Az Diamondbacks .... $258
Pittsburgh Pirates .... $258
Minnesota Twins ...... $261
Chic White Sox ........ $266
Colorado Rockies .... $266
San Diego Padres ... $266
Toronto Blue Jays .... $274
Detroit Tigers ........... $277
Cleveland Indians .... $284

 

 

[bird]

 

As of today, the Twins have 60-65 mil committed for 2019 and to really compete the roster needs to change 30% with significant questions about 2/3 of the cornerstone players. If that's not a rebuild, what is?

 

 

Tearing something down first.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Tearing something down first.

about 128 mil opening day to about 65 mil after World Series and turning over 30% of the active roster isn’t a tear down? Edited November 21, 2018 by Sconnie

[gunnarthor]

 

about 128 mil opening day to about 65 mil after World Series...

Payroll is at about 80m right now, assuming arb estimates. That gives the team probably about 40m to play with, assuming payroll will be a little smaller than last year.

 

If the Twins were rebuilding, they'd be trading away Rosario and Gibson and Berrios (25 next year) would bring back a ransom. They aren't moving these guys b/c the FO thinks they can win and should try and compete for the central with them next year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Payroll is at about 80m right now, assuming arb estimates. That gives the team probably about 40m to play with, assuming payroll will be a little smaller than last year.

 

If the Twins were rebuilding, they'd be trading away Rosario and Gibson and Berrios (25 next year) would bring back a ransom. They aren't moving these guys b/c the FO thinks they can win and should try and compete for the central with them next year.

thanks for clarifying payroll with arb estimates. I couldn’t agree with you more. Every trade the FO has done so far has been to bring back prospects, including Pressly who was still under contract for ‘19. Just cuz they haven’t traded the blue chips away yet, doesn’t mean they won’t. They haven’t shown their hand yet for 19, but in the short while they’ve been at the helm the trades have been of the prospect hording variety.

 

All of the improvements to the current team have been of the low wattage free agency variety.

 

I have more confidence in this FO to build a winner, I’m less confident it’ll be in ‘19

[bird]

 

about 128 mil opening day to about 65 mil after World Series and turning over 30% of the active roster isn’t a tear down?

 

No, they're still building. Maybe a half dozen new faces designed to make measurable contributions: two RP's, MI, 1B/DH, maybe one other. All very doable without trading off MLB assets of value that are part of the future. That sounds like a lot, but it's really not. Look at some of the reasonable plans people are submitting.

[Doomtints]

 

 

Here’s what Pohlad said regarding Joe Mauer’s contract coming off the books: “It’s not like ‘OK, we’ve got this money now, and we didn’t have it before, so we can do so much more. I don’t feel that way.”
 

 

He continues to make stupid statements like this. Makes it very hard to continue to be a fan of his ballclub. 

 

 

It's more than a stupid statement ... this is what the FO has to deal with when they try to create a budget. You can bet he said this to them already.

[SomeGuy]

The Mariners have to regroup.  I disagree with that being a bad thing.  They are an old team with what could be the worst minor league system.  It is probably in their best interest to start getting younger.  They have some massive contracts that are currently overpays.  They should be ready with a decent young core when those start ending.

 

Getting Justus Sheffield is a big step in the right direction, Felix and his massive overpay ends next year.  Paxton just set a career high in innings at 160 previously 136 and 121.  He has not been a reliable source of innings and is not that far from FA.  Great time to sell him.

[caninatl04]

We need to get better at all methods of player acquisition. Trades, draft, develop, international talent, and yes, the entire range of free agents, from bargain basement finds to top of the line proven talent.

I expect much criticism for this, but based on a very small sample size, I think the new FO team has improved in many of these areas. To wit:

Trades: Although there were few last off-season, I do like the August trades. I think we got at least fair value.

Draft: I think I am far from alone in liking the results (so far) from that last two drafts.

International: They did well with their money and they picked up some good talent from the Braves' fiasco.

Free Agents: Nope, they didn't work out. But in March of 2018, how many of us liked the moves?

 

If there is one area where the team has continued to fail, its development (Bux and Sano especially, but also SP).

 

I know this is more about the FO than the Pohlads, but I'm so far in favor.

[MABB1959]

 

We're not in year 8. The Twins were nearly in the playoffs in 2015 and were in the playoffs in 2017. The rebuild is over. The Twins should be thinking about the AL Central this offseason. Levine is correct when he says they aren't rebuilding.

 

Understanding that ownership isn't going to be part of the solution doesn't mean that the FO can't solve these problems. We should expect them to do so. But it does mean that the FO probably can't rely on large payrolls the way most competitive teams have. They'll probably have to follow the Terry Ryan model in the 2000s and the recent Cleveland Indians model - which is why they hired Falvey in the first place. I'm honestly not sure if Falvey and Levine can do it but I'm not ready to give up on them yet but this should be a big offseason for them. They did a good thing in getting rid of Molitor and Baldeli seems like a guy who might be able to relate to the talent we have. But who knows, maybe we get another total system failure. 

Nearly in the playoffs in 2015 and a one game wild card is not making it to the play-offs.  A successful play-off would be getting to the WS or a game 7 in the ALCS is what we need. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I expect much criticism for this, but based on a very small sample size, I think the new FO team has improved in many of these areas. To wit:
Trades: Although there were few last off-season, I do like the August trades. I think we got at least fair value.
Draft: I think I am far from alone in liking the results (so far) from that last two drafts.
International: They did well with their money and they picked up some good talent from the Braves' fiasco.
Free Agents: Nope, they didn't work out. But in March of 2018, how many of us liked the moves?

If there is one area where the team has continued to fail, its development (Bux and Sano especially, but also SP).

I know this is more about the FO than the Pohlads, but I'm so far in favor.

 

You'll get no criticism from me. 

 

The front office was active on all fronts... I'll judge the results when the fruit ripens but they were clearly active on all fronts and being active is the only way you can utilize all fronts. (Granted you can fail spectacularly when active, but you can only succeed by being active). 

 

I (many of us) asked for a forward thinking front office... I (we) got it.

 

Now, I'm going to let them crunch those numbers and fill out the roster. (As long as they fill out the ENTIRE roster).