Article: Twins Add Gordon, Wade, Arraez To 40-Man Roster

[bird]

 

Not worthy of being taken isn't exactly high praise.......when other players drafted those years are starring in the majors.....

 

 

You make it sound like there's a whole slew of players from that draft starring in the majors when in fact only two players selected after Jay can be described as such. Two out of 36, mind you.

[Vanimal46]

I've defended the Jay pick plenty, and would continue to from a theoretical standpoint.

 

On the other hand, it was ultimately a big fail. And heads rolled. And now the new guys are ready to move on. As am I. Which likely won't even happen--Jay will remain a Twins farmhand.

 

Instead, take a look at the 2016 draft. Are any of those guys taken before AK ranked higher than he is now? I'm thinking not. Of course, at least on MLB.com, Forrest Whitley, taken two picks later, is ranked higher...

The Kirilloff pick looks really good right now. Still a long ways to go with him. I wish he got his feet wet in AA for the last month of the season. He was making a mockery of A ball. The real test will be mastering AA... If he's just as good after a few months I'll be beating the drum to call him up directly from AA.

[ChrisKnutson]

Loving the youth that’s on the 40 man roster right now, but I’d still like to see someone else in Granite, Grossman, Slegers’ roster spots by the start of ST.

[Han Joelo]

I'm torn on what thread to make this comment in.  Though he is an ex-Twin, he's inextricably linked to Busenitz, who was a part of this thread, so...anyway...Alex Meyer DFA'd.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/angels-designate-alex-meyer-for-assignment.html

[IndianaTwin]

 

I've defended the Jay pick plenty, and would continue to from a theoretical standpoint.

 

On the other hand, it was ultimately a big fail.  And heads rolled.  And now the new guys are ready to move on.  As am I.  Which likely won't even happen--Jay will remain a Twins farmhand.

 

Instead, take a look at the 2016 draft.  Are any of those guys taken before AK ranked higher than he is now?  I'm thinking not.  Of course, at least on MLB.com, Forrest Whitley, taken two picks later, is ranked higher...

 

Also, Nick Senzel. 

 

[Han Joelo]

 

Also, Nick Senzel. 

Derp.  True enough.  But the point still mostly stands.  Whatever the point was.

[Riverbrian]

 

For $100,000 it's foolish not to take a rule 5 player. I haven't looked lately, but at one time Haley was on the best team in baseball. With us he was on the DL twice and couldn't seem to stay healthy. Injuries are part of the game, but the pick was a good one.

 

100 Grand is nothing. The roster spot that he occupies on the other hand is extremely important. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

$100k seems cheap, but in modern Rule 5, you're not buying much. Take a look at the recent results:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

The last couple years, it's like maybe 1 useful guy out of 18 picks.

By comparison, there are quite a few far more successful/valuable guys signed on minor league deals every year -- like Brandon Morrow for the Dodgers a couple years ago, Kintzler for the Twins, etc. Dereck Rodriguez, even. And those guys actually cost LESS than $100k (not to mention not requiring a 25 man roster spot). You'd probably be better off trying to identify those guys and enticing them to sign with the roster spot you would have used on a Rule 5 pick instead.

It comes down to, what's the best 40-man I can assemble in the offseason? And what's the best 25-man I can field to start the season? Talent can be scarce, but not so scarce that Rule 5 picks need to be part of those roster equations, at the low odds of recent Rule 5 results. There's enough potential/talent available, in free agency, trades, etc., that it's easy to see why it's preferable for most teams to opt against drafting/rostering Rule 5 guys.

 

In my opinion... You crushed it with this post. 

 

Well done! 

[Riverbrian]

 

I just think there's no risk... Take a guy, and give him back... or turn him into Ryan Pressly. Either way I just mainly think it's silly to think that the team should just never take that option, whether they are a contender or not. 

 

He's got to be able to contribute immediately... If you got that rare rule 5 guy who can contribute immediately... OK... by all means grab him. The Phillies didn't hide Odubel Herrera. The Rangers didn't hide Darren O' Day. 

 

As it stands today, you can't afford to hide a guy anymore unless you are in a rebuild with absolutely no expectation. Contending teams can't give up the roster spot.

 

And... even if you are in a rebuild, the concept of hiding a guy, burning a roster spot with limited and or toxic production is going to actually slow down your rebuild because that roster spot could be used to audition a guy who is closer to proving himself as future value and those guys become actual value at a much higher frequency than the rule 5 guy does. 

 

We learned nothing from 3.1 Innings of Tyler Kinley. We grabbed him... Molitor didn't play him and we cut players who landed on other major league rosters for the privilage. 

 

There is plenty of risk. 

[Riverbrian]

 

You make it sound like there's a whole slew of players from that draft starring in the majors when in fact only two players selected after Jay can be described as such. Two out of 36, mind you.

 

I don't blame the Twins for missing on Tyler Jay. When you consider how many teams have missed over the years, I would be very uncomfortable blaming the Twins for this single draft pick. 

 

However... When I add Tyler Jay to every 1st round pick we've had since 2005 and the hind sight results that we can all see. I then start feeling comfortable blaming the Twins. 

[bird]

 

I don't blame the Twins for missing on Tyler Jay. When you consider how many teams have missed over the years, I would be very uncomfortable blaming the Twins for this single draft pick. 

 

However... When I add Tyler Jay to every 1st round pick we've had since 2005 and the hind sight results that we can all see. I then start feeling comfortable blaming the Twins. 

 

 

I get this, but I wonder how instructive it is to look at history dating back more than a decade. The 2006 results probably don't answer the silent question that criticism of the selection always asks about the competence of the current decision-makers. Can we have a statute of limitations on this?

 

Does a particular bad result tell you something about the comparative level of prowess involved? Are the same people still earning a W-2? Is it a case of a bad decision, or is it a bad result for other reasons? If the same people who gave you Kirilloff gave you Kohl Stewart, what explains this good decision/bad decision thing?

 

I challenge anyone to randomly pick a franchise and go back ten years with their first-round picks. Compare their results to the Twins. Factor in the value of very early selections versus late ones. Add up WAR, assign "points" or something to prospects based on Sickles grade letters if they're still in the minors. Oh, and pull out the Trout outlier if you randomly pick one of them. In other words, try to be fair and objective about it. Then get back to us to show us all how bad the Twins have done COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING.

 

Tyler Jay appears to be a bad result. IMO, he appears to be one of the infrequent bad decisions too, not just a case of bad luck. But this doesn't suggest to me a problem with talent evaluation. Not with Lewis and Kirilloff both among about the 20 or so prospects earning a straight A grade from Sickles.

Edited November 22, 2018 by birdwatcher

[Riverbrian]

 

I get this, but I wonder how instructive it is to look at history dating back more than a decade. The 2006 results probably don't answer the silent question that criticism of the selection always asks about the competence of the current decision-makers. Can we have a statute of limitations on this?

 

Does a particular bad result tell you something about the comparative level of prowess involved? Are the same people still earning a W-2? Is it a case of a bad decision, or is it a bad result for other reasons? If the same people who gave you Kirilloff gave you Kohl Stewart, what explains this good decision/bad decision thing?

 

I challenge anyone to randomly pick a franchise and go back ten years with their first-round picks. Compare their results to the Twins. Factor in the value of very early selections versus late ones. Add up WAR, assign "points" or something to prospects based on Sickles grade letters if they're still in the minors. Oh, and pull out the Trout outlier if you randomly pick one of them. In other words, try to be fair and objective about it. Then get back to us to show us all how bad the Twins have done COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING.

 

Tyler Jay appears to be a bad result. IMO, he appears to be one of the infrequent bad decisions too, not just a case of bad luck. But this doesn't suggest to me a problem with talent evaluation. Not with Lewis and Kirilloff both among about the 20 or so prospects earning a straight A grade from Sickles.

 

Well, you've ruined my Thanksgiving by giving me a project to complete. 

 

I think you know... or at least I hope you know that I don't attach such things to the current regime. However, such things are attached to the current regime when they took their positions because they are dealing with the aftermath. That aftermath means we haven't reached the statute of limitations in my opinion. The reason we may be looking for a SS is because we didn't do a good job with Levi Michael for example. It matters a bunch. 

[Riverbrian]

I will make no assumptions on Kirilloff, Lewis or anybody currently on the farm until they become actual value instead of projected value. Meaning until Kirilloff swings a bat at the major league level or is traded for someone who swings a bat at the major league value. He is projected value just like Byron Buxton was once "this guy is going to rule the world". 

 

Your question  "bad decision" or "bad result" is a great one and I don't know the answer other than the result hasn't been good. Did the Twins draft the right people and then blow it with the management of the right people or did the Twins draft the wrong people leaving it impossible to produce an asset worth managing. It's a good question I don't know but our bad results are piling up. I don't know what was wrong other than there WAS... (Hopefully WAS... Hopefully corrected by the new regime already or soon)... WAS a serious problem with our production of top of the line talent for personal use by our Twins. 

 

We've had enough chances to produce our own Mookie Betts and we haven't. Draft and development is the easiest way to acquire a Mookie Betts because after the draft Mookie Betts becomes expensive quickly. 

 

Every year... right about this time. Twinsdaily has this same discussion on repeat. 

 

Do the Twins have anybody that interests other teams to the point that they are willing to trade us Michael Kopech and Juan Moncada? Nope 

 

The Mets are throwing Syndergaard out there. Do the Twins have a comparable? Nope. Kluber? Nope. 

 

I'm not suggesting a tear down and selling of assets but I'm suggesting that if we wanted to sell off our assets... what current assets could get the job done? 

 

Where are our Superstars?  We should have one or two by now. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

They got a MLB player for $100,000. I don't follow every other team and really don't care what they do. If the search committee had picked me, I would always take a rule 5 player. Always.

I don’t see it as money, as much as trying to compete with a 24 man roster.

[nicksaviking]

 

I get this, but I wonder how instructive it is to look at history dating back more than a decade. The 2006 results probably don't answer the silent question that criticism of the selection always asks about the competence of the current decision-makers. Can we have a statute of limitations on this?

 

 

I'd prefer to judge the process of talent evaluation instead of the actual talent produced, of course teams aren't going to disclose that willingly. In the case of Mookie Betts though, we do have anecdotal evidence that the Red Sox were doing some kind of video-game type of test to gauge reaction time and/or eye-hand coordination and Betts was off the charts which is why the Red Sox drafted such a small kid in the 5th round instead of letting him get picked after the 10th round which is typical for HS players with perceived low ceilings.

 

I'd like to know if the Twins were doing something similar, the perception of the club would indicate that their evaluation would consist of scouts in the stands, a chat with a coach and perhaps a firm handshake, but that's only an assumption, maybe there was more. Are the Twins now doing the things other clubs do to find elite talent? Are they now doing things other clubs have not thought about to evaluate elite talent? That's really what I want to know. I think if they put in the effort to distance themselves from their competitors, it will pay off in star players in the long run.

[snap4birds]

 

. In the case of Mookie Betts though, we do have anecdotal evidence that the Red Sox were doing some kind of video-game type of test to gauge reaction time and/or eye-hand coordination and Betts was off the charts which is why the Red Sox drafted such a small kid in the 5th round instead of letting him get picked after the 10th round which is typical for HS players with perceived low ceilings.

 

 

 

How much contact do MLB teams have with high school kids, or even college kids, to do this kind of testing?  I didn't think they could have any contact other than with the kids' 'family advisor'?  

[Mike Sixel]

I don’t see it as money, as much as trying to compete with a 24 man roster.

This is so obvious it's hard to understand why this is controversial.

[nicksaviking]

How much contact do MLB teams have with high school kids, or even college kids, to do this kind of testing?  I didn't think they could have any contact other than with the kids' 'family advisor'?

 

I guess you can, the Red Sox had scouts testing Betts in HS during his lunch period I guess:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/how-mlb-teams-are-using-neuroscience-to-try-to-gain-a-competitive-advantage/amp/

 

Different than the NFL for sure. Hope it’s not different than the Twins.

[caninatl04]

$100k seems cheap, but in modern Rule 5, you're not buying much. Take a look at the recent results:

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

 

The last couple years, it's like maybe 1 useful guy out of 18 picks.

Did the Twins get anything from the Miguel Diaz trade to the Padres?

[caninatl04]

 

 

 

Where are our Superstars?  We should have one or two by now.

 

One should be seeing a shrink in Georgia while another should be attending Jenny Craig in the DR.

[Ncgo4]

I think Arraez could be the biggest surprise in the Twin's Minor League system.  His hit tool is very, very good, maybe even special.  He, Alex K and Lewis are the hitters I always look up on the minor league stats every day.  As he's moved up in the minor league system he's had adjustment issues at almost every stop.  But then has hit absolutely lights out.  My guess is that if you take out the first 2 weeks after a promotion, his career BA would be at least 30 points higher.

[beckmt]

I think you have 2 issues here.  Most of the 2000's Twins drafted in the 20s.  You will have a lot more misses in the high teens to 20's than in the top 5.  There are going to be misses, just hope there are not too many.  Some of these are why Twins metrics have changed in the new regime.

Arraez needs to be given a chance this year and see if he can produce at the major league level.  Really feel strongly about this if you are not moving a lot of chips into the table to see if you can win at least a division this year. Gordon does not look ready and Wade still needs at least part of a year at AAA before we bring he up (if Buxton totally becomes a failure this year).  By the end of this year Twins should know what holes they need to fill to get to the next level.

But I am hoping they play to win this year and push some assets into fixing the holes they feel they have this winter.

[Rigby]

 

 in the top 5.  There are going to be misses, just hope there are not too many.  

Interesting and agreed that there would hopefully not be many misses in the top 5. Historically the Twins have had twelve top 5 first round picks. I suppose you could say the jury is still out on the last four - Lewis, Gordon, Stewart and Buxton. Of the remaining eight only Mauer and Belcher (whom they did not sign) had significant careers. Add Travis Lee (also whom they did not sign) if you choose. Had high hopes for a couple others -Banks and McCarty. A few were head scratchers - Adam Johnson, Garbe and Oelkers. I would hope their first round hit rate improves but a look through the Twins' drafts shows how difficult the task is. The draft along with the international market is the foundation of those organizations that have sustained success. Build your assets.....

[twinkiesfan11]

I think Arraez could be the biggest surprise in the Twin's Minor League system. His hit tool is very, very good, maybe even special. He, Alex K and Lewis are the hitters I always look up on the minor league stats every day. As he's moved up in the minor league system he's had adjustment issues at almost every stop. But then has hit absolutely lights out. My guess is that if you take out the first 2 weeks after a promotion, his career BA would be at least 30 points higher.

Not a perfect comp but the player I always think of with Arraez is former Twins minor leaguer Yangervis Solarte. Another very solid bat with very little speed or defensive value who seems to hit everywhere he goes. I’d love to see the Twins emphasize positional flexibility with Arreaz in the upper minors to see if he can eventually be deployed similar to the way Solarte has.

Edited November 29, 2018 by twinkiesfan11