Article: Welcome to the New School

[Riverbrian]

 

In 2017 when Bogaerts, Betts, Buxton, and Sano were all 24, Buxton had twice the War of either Betts or Bogaerts. Sano had 50 points of OPS on Betts. Neither Betts nor Bogaerts have had particlarly straight roads to their current lofty status.

I have no idea what Buxton and Sano might do in 2019. But if they are healthy, big ifs maybe, I would expect pretty darn good numbers. Probably not what Betts did in 2018, but then Betts will have a hard time duplicating that himself.

Young players don't all follow the same paths to success. Given health, I really expect special things out Buxton. His talents are overwhelming and i believe he will work hard. Sano, is a bit ifier, but their is a lot of talent there too.

Now, I understand your point of not depending on them for 2019. Still, you can't write them out of the plan either. Trading either at this time seems foolish to me. The answer is probably to build some depth, pray for good health, and see what happens.

 

I pay full attention to the ping pong ball nature of player performance year over year. I was the guy who was kicking himself for not grabbing Mookie Betts in 2016 for my fantasy baseball when I had the chance. Was then determined to land him in 2017 when he had his down season at age 24 and then decided not to spend the high draft pick on him in 2018 when he went nuts again.

 

The paths are typically not straight and true and that is why I am in the trust but verify stage with Sano and Buxton. Don't you dare trade them but don't you dare rely on them either. GIve them a roster spot and make them earn their playing time.

 

Actually, the paths for seasoned vets are not straight and true either and frankly after watching Morrison and Dozier... I'm in the trust and verify stage with the vets to.

 

Bottom Line... I absolutely believe in both Sano and Buxton.  

 

However... the Mookie Betts down year at age 24 in 2017 wasn't even close to the down year that Sano and Buxton showed us last year. Also, I am not a WAR guy (I can speak it but I'm not a WAR guy) because the defensive metrics are small sample size half cooked measures in my opinion and when you quote me that Buxton had the twice the WAR that Betts had in 2017 even with better offensive numbers from Betts, it only validates my opinion of WAR and drives further away from using the stats in my player assessment. 

 

Buxton is an amazing defensive player and that has serious value but Betts is also a very good defensive player who hits much better (at the moment). No calculation will ever convince me that Buxton was double anything of Mookie Betts. 

 

Anyway.. last year was a disaster for our dynamic duo of future hope. It punched me in the gut but I survived it. 

[Jim Hahn]

I agree with with your thoughts about war. I was too lazy to do a more comprehensive evaluation. My larger point is if Buxton is healthy and can stay healthy, I really believe he will be the kind of impact player that Betts is, even if it takes a little more time. He has shown enough flashes of that possibility.

 

The other thing is if the FO had not decided to play games to get an extra year of player serfdom, we might of seen 100 AB's of a healthy Buxton and we might not be having this conversation.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Jim Hahn

[Riverbrian]

 

I agree with with your thoughts about war. I was too lazy to do a more comprehensive evaluation. My larger point is if Buxton is healthy and can stay healthy, I really believe he will be the kind of impact player that Betts is, even if it takes a little more time. He has shown enough flashes of that possibility.

The other thing is if the FO had not decided to play games to get an extra year of player serfdom, we might of seen 100 AB's of a healthy Buxton and we might not be having this conversation.

 

Could be health but I believe he just has to stop trying to pull outside sliders into the upper deck and the transformation will be quick. He just needs to put more balls in play. If health helps him put more balls in play. I pray for his health.  

 

However "Play Games" "Serfdom". Those quotes leave the assumption that you were not a fan of the Buxton decision. 

 

If you compare the value of one full year of a healthy more experienced Buxton during a year that we may be in contention (2022) compared to 100 healthy AB's at the end of a year where the team has already failed and not in contention as a result. You are talking about one end of the value spectrum to the other.

 

Trading a productive full year of the Buxton (we both think he could be) for 100 healthy AB's during a lost season would be like trading Mookie Betts for Matt Belisle.