Article: Believe in Byron Buxton

[Riverbrian]

 

it’s not the “if”, it’s the “how”. Harper’s service time was managed on the front side, instead of getting demoted and not brought up for September with two weeks to go.

 

Yeah I get that... But the "how" didn't help or hurt the "If". 

 

Maybe our "How" hurt our "If" but there is a real strong chance that it wouldn't matter in the first place because if Buxton becomes Buxton he will have teams inflating his price and lowering his value at the same time.  

 

What Buxton needs to do now is say "I'll show them". And then go ahead and tren show us all. If he gives us a finger on the way out of town... we still get that extra year of superior play at an affordable price at a time when we could really use it.    

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Yeah I get that... But the "how" didn't help or hurt the "If".

 

Maybe our "How" hurt our "If" but there is a real strong chance that it wouldn't matter in the first place because if Buxton becomes Buxton he will have teams inflating his price and lowering his value at the same time.

 

What Buxton needs to do now is say "I'll show them". And then go ahead show them. If he gives us a finger on the way out of town... we still get that extra year of superior play at an affordable price at a time when we could really use it.

I get the FO side of the service time thing. I agreed with the Oncler when he kept biggering and biggering, that biggering was the right thing to do. However the Onceler failed to heed the Lorax that biggering needs to be sustainable.

 

Consuming human beings’ output without considering their needs much like the other Bill James discussion....

 

James is right, just like Falvey is right, but they’re going about it wrong. Sustainability with human capital requires treating them well.

 

I hope Buxton does a LeBron James and not a LeVeon Bell, but I don’t think Falvey can afford to find out which direction he goes, and will trade him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I guess I'd be OK with that.  Twins wasted close to that much on Ricky Nolasco, without the potential upside.

 

This is off subject a little bit, but I wonder with technology as it is today, if there could be a way to test/improve pitch recognition.  Say with high speed cameras and some sort of device held in the hand,  have the player stand in the batters box, no bat or anything, and just try to recognize the pitch. That way they are not worrying about any swing mechanics or anything like that, just pitch recognition. Have multiple buttons for FB CB CH SL  and have the device synched to the cameras to see how quickly and accurately the player distinguishes the pitch.  Maybe it could pick up that one particular pitch gives them problems or all non FB pitches, or whatever. Just thinking out loud, probably not workable or maybe they have some variation of this already. probably just a another dumb idea by me.

lasic

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I get the FO side of the service time thing. I agreed with the Oncler when he kept biggering and biggering, that biggering was the right thing to do. However the Onceler failed to heed the Lorax that biggering needs to be sustainable.

Consuming human beings’ output without considering their needs much like the other Bill James discussion....

James is right, just like Falvey is right, but they’re going about it wrong. Sustainability with human capital requires treating them well.

I hope Buxton does a LeBron James and not a LeVeon Bell, but I don’t think Falvey can afford to find out which direction he goes, and will trade him.

 

Trees just end up dropping leaves in the yard and I end up spending all day Sunday raking them up. 

 

Also... Deer run out of the forests and crash into my car. Less trees will give me a fighting chance. 

 

 

[wabene]

You're ignoring that players are no longer doing this.......they just aren't. You can project how you'd feel all you want, but just look at the last three or four years.

 

30/31 and older is now prime? On a site where people say all the time NOT to sign guys into their mid-30s, now it is a good idea? I'm confused by that sentence. In a league that is getting younger and younger? I don't see that.

I think this is true and why Buxton would be well served to break out before he signs a mega deal. One may not be waiting when he is in his 30's and has lost a step.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think this is true and why Buxton would be well served to break out before he signs a mega deal. One may not be waiting when he is in his 30's and has lost a step.

And if he doesn't ever break out, a first one won't be waiting for him. I'm sure Buxton believes in himself, and clearly I believe in him too, but he knows all too well that sometimes it's outta your hands. No one can echo that better than his new manager. 

[ewen21]

 

I haven't given up, I'm also not ready to invest long-term.

 

I need to see if this Brittle Buxton continues.  And people are right to point out that his floor is not a major league player.  We've seen almost 1000 ABs at this point and he hasn't been a major leaguer for all but a hundred or two of them.

 

I get being optimistic and wanting to buy low, but I don't get spinning the downside.   It's been dire and injuries are only part of that.

HIs floor is he's out of baseball within five years.  He barely played last year and when did he was overmatched.  His speed isn't making up for it.  His speed gets treated like a security blanket and I don' get that.  His speed and recklessness in the field may well be the thing that ultimately does him in for good.  He's had collisions and has already knocked himself out in the field.  At the rate he is going what is he going to be in three or four years?

 

This is why I don't understand the angle that states...

"He can hit .200 and still have a lot of value"

Really?  No, I don't think so.

Especially since he cannot seem to stay on the field.,

 

An extension now accomplishes notihng.  Have we not been watching?  This is a player who bases his entire game off playing with reckless abandon in the field.  There was an article last sping where he talked in detail about his migraines, concussions and running into walls--AND he was unrepentant.  That was the red flag for me last March.  This last season confirmed all my concerns.

 

Being positive is nice, but when it strays to far from reality I find it troublesome--especially when talking about INVESTMENT

Edited November 11, 2018 by ewen21

[Nick Nelson]

 

HIs floor is he's out of baseball within five years.  He barely played last year and when did he was overmatched.  His speed isn't making up for it.  His speed gets treated like a security blanket and I don' get that.  His speed and recklessness in the field may well be the thing that ultimately does him in for good.  He's had collisions and has already knocked himself out in the field.  At the rate he is going what is he going to be in three or four years?

How is this backed up by evidence? He was healthy enough to play 140 games in 2017 and this year he missed time because of migraines, a broken toe suffered on a foul ball, and a wrist strain that (to my knowledge) was not caused by any reckless collision. 

 

I'm gonna go ahead and say there's zero chance Buxton is out of baseball in five years, barring catastrophic physical issues. He was deemed the most valuable defensive player in the major leagues one year ago! 

[yarnivek1972]

How is this backed up by evidence? He was healthy enough to play 140 games in 2017 and this year he missed time because of migraines, a broken toe suffered on a foul ball, and a wrist strain that (to my knowledge) was not caused by any reckless collision.

 

I'm gonna go ahead and say there's zero chance Buxton is out of baseball in five years, barring catastrophic physical issues. He was deemed the most valuable defensive player in the major leagues one year ago!

I believe “catastrophic physical issues” is exactly what ewen is suggesting. And given the way he plays, his risk of that is higher than that of most.

[PSzalapski]

Great take, Nick, and I agree...my blueprint has the Twins depending on Buxton.  If the Twins do so and it works out along with other moves, the team has a chance to win the division.  If it doesn't work out, or the Twins give up on him or send him to the minors again, they'll have a tough time.

[TheLeviathan]

It’s not just his style of play though. He comes away from situations with debilitating injuries when others would walk away with nothing. When you make a list of fluke injuries....eventually you should consider dropping “fluke” when your list gets long enough.

 

Having a 11.7 WAR for his defense didn’t keep Pedro Florimon on the field at shortstop. It has kept him floating in and out of a job in baseball. If Buxton can’t hit, that is what his future might look like.

[highlander]

I would sign Buck with Pohlad's money. I never understood getting rid of Hicks either. Build from within and use the farm system.

[ewen21]

 

It’s not just his style of play though. He comes away from situations with debilitating injuries when others would walk away with nothing. When you make a list of fluke injuries....eventually you should consider dropping “fluke” when your list gets long enough.

Having a 11.7 WAR for his defense didn’t keep Pedro Florimon on the field at shortstop. It has kept him floating in and out of a job in baseball. If Buxton can’t hit, that is what his future might look like.

Defense for a posiion player is important, but it isn't close to how important offense is.  Not by a longshot.  Every at bat is a chance to make an impact whereas a player might go a week or more before they can make a play only few others can make in the field.  A player can go a long time just having plays that aren't difficult for nomal major leaguers.  The idea that his glove makes up for his horrible offense is absurd.  It takes some of the sting away.  That is all it does.

 

The other thing is, outfield defense does not last forever.  He wasted a year last year because he could not hit, got a migraine and hurt his toe.  This took him out by May.  We all saw what we saw and yet people preach the posiitive and the upside.  Exactly how much longer can we do this?  Further, how is it that it is smart to make an investment in him now?  He has no leverage and he should be concerned about staying with the big club. Not with any kind of contract talk.

 

I just don't get it.  Maybe some folks can see the future and I can't.  I can only go on what I have seen and I am not encouraged at all.  Can this change?  Of course it can.  Would I bet millions and leave other young players in the organization wondering why he got his and they did not??  NO WAY

 

And that is another thing.  We need to build a meritocricy.  Not create an environment where one guy is treated diferently from the rest unnecessarily.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Having a 11.7 WAR for his defense didn’t keep Pedro Florimon on the field at shortstop. It has kept him floating in and out of a job in baseball. If Buxton can’t hit, that is what his future might look like.

Florimon in his best season with the Twins (age 26) had a .611 OPS. Buxton had a .714 OPS at age 22 and a .728 OPS at age 23. He also has an .874 OPS in the minors, 200 pts higher than Florimon. The two aren't comparable offensively. 

 

I think some folks are reeeaallly letting recency bias skew their perception of the realities here. 

[Teflon]

This post assumes Buxton would be the same potential future player here as with another team. While I'm not doubting Buxton's potential I am doubting the Twins ability to help him reach it. They have a garage full of sports cars but can't seem to figure out how to work a clutch. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Florimon in his best season with the Twins (age 26) had a .611 OPS. Buxton had a .714 OPS at age 22 and a .728 OPS at age 23. He also has an .874 OPS in the minors, 200 pts higher than Florimon. The two aren't comparable offensively. 

 

I think some folks are reeeaallly letting recency bias skew their perception of the realities here. 

 

 

2018 was not the only time Buxton has been in the .600 OPS range for this team Nick.  He gave us nearly 300 ABs in 2017 at .583.

 

So, yes, he has been comparable to Florimon.  Worse, even, for significant stretches.  

 

It'd be nice if you'd acknowledge that the floor with him is not nearly as high as you keep indicating.  And that's a demonstrable fact.  As in, hundreds of at-bats/many games, worth of evidence to the contrary.  Doesn't make your desire to sign him to an extension wrong, but it's sure as hell a different context than the one you keep suggesting.

 

[DrNeau]

Buxton will be dominant if he figures out how to hit. 

[DrNeau]

According to the Twins' Depth Chart right now, they are not too high on him. Maybe sending a message to get his you-know-what together. 

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

2018 was not the only time Buxton has been in the .600 OPS range for this team Nick.  He gave us nearly 300 ABs in 2017 at .583.

Huh? He had a .728 OPS in 2017. You can't just cherrypick portions of the season and ignore the MVP-caliber stretch that balanced out the bad. I could just as easily say he had a .780 OPS over nearly 450 ABS in 2017, removing April from the equation.

 

I haven't seen any real evidence that Buxton's floor as a hitter, when healthy, is anywhere near as low as you're making it out to be. As a whole, if you subtract 94 mostly injury-hampered PAs in the majors this year, Buxton has been a solid hitter in the majors since 2016 and a dominant one in Triple-A. And he still. hasn't. turned. 25.

 

 

According to the Twins' Depth Chart right now, they are not too high on him. Maybe sending a message to get his you-know-what together. 

Buxton wasn't on the MLB roster at season's end. I think that's all the meaning there is to be derived from that depth chart, which features only players who ended the year on the active roster (and aren't free agents).

[TheLeviathan]

 

Huh? He had a .728 OPS in 2017. You can't just cherrypick portions of the season and ignore the MVP-caliber stretch that balanced out the bad. I could just as easily say he had a .780 OPS over nearly 450 ABS in 2017, removing April from the equation.

 

I haven't seen any real evidence that Buxton's floor as a hitter, when healthy, is anywhere near as low as you're making it out to be. As a whole, if you subtract 94 mostly injury-hampered PAs in the majors this year, Buxton has been a solid hitter in the majors since 2016 and a dominant one in Triple-A. And he still. hasn't. turned. 25.

 

 

Buxton wasn't on the MLB roster at season's end. I think that's all the meaning there is to be derived from that depth chart, which features only players who ended the year on the active roster (and aren't free agents).

 

I'm not cherry picking when it happens for half a season Nick.  

 

I think you've started with a thesis that is flawed and now you're really reaching to defend it.  You've said Buxton has made steady progress.  That injuries are explaining away his struggles.  That anyone who posts about 3 month stretches is cherry picking.  It's clear none of us can say anything to get you to take a second look at your "floor" talk.  Ok....well, maybe this guy can:

 

Buxton's spring was an extension of his breakthrough September in 2016. Once again, the young outfielder was flashing visible confidence, regularly connecting with good pitches and putting together solid at-bats. His performance was impressive enough to convince Paul Molitor that Buxton was ready to bat third in the lineup.

But in April, the self-assured hitter who finished last season on a blistering hot streak and piled up a team-leading 10 extra-base hits in the ensuing spring has inexplicably gone amiss. Buxton looks as timid and clueless in the box as he did as a green MLB newcomer, if not more so. With each horrendous plate appearance, the issues only seem to further compound and snowball.

The strategy of letting him try to fight through his struggles is yielding no discernible progress. Although the strikeouts have subsided somewhat, Buxton continues to be an exceedingly easy out, with mediocre or worse pitchers consistently having their way. In his first nine games he went 3-for-34. In eight games since, he's 3-for-31. According to FanGraphs, only one ball put in play this year by Buxton has qualified as a line drive. His 47 percent K-rate is 12 points higher than MLB pitchers have produced at the plate.

You would literally expect better from a random Single-A scrub thrown onto the big-league stage. From a player of such immense talent who posted an .880 OPS in the minors, it boggles the mind. And considering Buxton's monumental importance to the franchise, it's a highly disquieting dilemma.

 

 

 

 

 

I disagree that Nick Nelson has not seen Buxton's floor.  Nick Nelson circa 2017 also seems to agree with me.

[USAFChief]

2018 was not the only time Buxton has been in the .600 OPS range for this team Nick.  He gave us nearly 300 ABs in 2017 at .583.

 

So, yes, he has been comparable to Florimon.  Worse, even, for significant stretches.  

 

It'd be nice if you'd acknowledge that the floor with him is not nearly as high as you keep indicating.  And that's a demonstrable fact.  As in, hundreds of at-bats/many games, worth of evidence to the contrary.  Doesn't make your desire to sign him to an extension wrong, but it's sure as hell a different context than the one you keep suggesting.

Florimon is 31 and has a career .588 OPS. Buxton career .672. To say nothing of their minor league history or pedigree.

 

They are not remotely similar. Nobody would have considered a long term deal for Florimon, ever.

 

Certainly Buxton has been massively disappointing, but there is undeniable talent, potential, and pedigree there.

[bird]

 

2018 was not the only time Buxton has been in the .600 OPS range for this team Nick.  He gave us nearly 300 ABs in 2017 at .583.

 

So, yes, he has been comparable to Florimon.  Worse, even, for significant stretches.  

 

It'd be nice if you'd acknowledge that the floor with him is not nearly as high as you keep indicating.  And that's a demonstrable fact.  As in, hundreds of at-bats/many games, worth of evidence to the contrary.  Doesn't make your desire to sign him to an extension wrong, but it's sure as hell a different context than the one you keep suggesting.

 

I get your point, Levi, but I'd make this distinction: Florimon's talent is not comparable to Buxton's. Florimon closed the gap between his talent and his skills when he was with the Twins and that wasn't good enough. Buxton, for a very brief time narrowed the gap between his talent and his skills, but he didn't master his skills by any stretch of the imagination.

 

For me, it comes down to the point of view one takes. Is he more likely to persist in maintaining this gap? Or is he more apt to at least partially close this gap? Because of his immense talent, and probably because the field staff believes in his make-up, they view even the prolonged struggles as correctable. Not a mirage, but correctable.

 

So I agree, his "floor" has been established.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Florimon is 31 and has a career .588 OPS. Buxton career .672. To say nothing of their minor league history or pedigree.

They are not remotely similar. Nobody would have considered a long term deal for Florimon, ever.

Certainly Buxton has been massively disappointing, but there is undeniable talent, potential, and pedigree there.

 

This all misses the point.  Nick has been insinuating Buxton can be a major league player based on defense alone.  I brought up Florimon putting up a 12 WAR defensive effort for the Twins one year as proof that defense alone is not enough.  None of us were singing Florimon's praises that year because he has such an awesome dWAR.  We were all wondering how the hell we were letting a guy with a .600 OPS play every day.  

 

If Buxton can't be more than a .600-.700 OPS player he will have trouble staying in the big leagues.  Regardless of what he brings with the glove.  That's the point.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I get your point, Levi, but I'd make this distinction: Florimon's talent is not comparable to Buxton's. Florimon closed the gap between his talent and his skills when he was with the Twins and that wasn't good enough. Buxton, for a very brief time narrowed the gap between his talent and his skills, but he didn't master his skills by any stretch of the imagination.

 

For me, it comes down to the point of view one takes. Is he more likely to persist in maintaining this gap? Or is he more apt to at least partially close this gap? Because of his immense talent, and probably because the field staff believes in his make-up, they view even the prolonged struggles as correctable. Not a mirage, but correctable.

 

So I agree, his "floor" has been established.

 

Again, I'm not giving up on Buxton.  He's right there in CF in my blueprint.  The talent is obvious, I haven't given up on him.  He's abundantly more talented than Florimon of course.

 

None of that changes the fact that his floor is a guy who can't hit.  And no matter how good your defense is, it won't keep you on the field if you can't hit. 

 

Like me, you sound like you're under no illusions about what the downside is. All I'm pushing back on is what I feel is an unfair counter argument to concerns about him.  The concerns are legit and based on significant samples.

Edited November 12, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Nick Nelson]

 

This all misses the point.  Nick has been insinuating Buxton can be a major league player based on defense alone.  I brought up Florimon putting up a 12 WAR defensive effort for the Twins one year as proof that defense alone is not enough.  None of us were singing Florimon's praises that year because he has such an awesome dWAR.  We were all wondering how the hell we were letting a guy with a .600 OPS play every day.  

 

If Buxton can't be more than a .600-.700 OPS player he will have trouble staying in the big leagues.  Regardless of what he brings with the glove.  That's the point.

That is not the point I've attempted to make, at any point. He HAS hit enough to be valuable, and these Florimon comparisons are extremely off the mark. In the season you're referencing Florimon was a 1.4 WAR player despite his dWAR; in 2017 Buxton was a 3.5 WAR player. That's a top 30 mark in the American League! 

 

You're correct that if Buxton hits like he did in April 2017, or in 90 at-bats this year, his defense won't be enough to make up for it. I just don't think there's any reason to view those stretches as his full-season floor. Not based on precedent, or his talent level, or historical comps. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

That is not the point I've attempted to make, at any point. He HAS hit enough to be valuable, and these Florimon comparisons are extremely off the mark. In the season you're referencing Florimon was a 1.4 WAR player despite his dWAR; in 2017 Buxton was a 3.5 WAR player. That's a top 30 mark in the American League! 

 

You're correct that if Buxton hits like he did in April 2017, or in 90 at-bats this year, his defense won't be enough to make up for it. I just don't think there's any reason to view those stretches as his full-season floor. Not based on precedent, or his talent level, or historical comps. 

 

And this comes back to why WAR may not be all that useful to this discussion.  I doubt most people are going to be thrilled with a .650 OPS player in the every day lineup no matter what his WAR total is.  

 

My point is simply this -we have significant samples in which he has NOT hit.  Most of his time in the big leagues so far, in fact.  And at times, as you said in the post I quoted, it's not just that he's been bad.  He's been historically bad.  With all sorts of serious red flags all over his offensive profile.

 

It is a very real downside that those samples become the reality.  And that should be acknowledged, even if you want to bet on the upside.

[caninatl04]

Wait... What? Minnesota isn't perfect? The sun's almost shining, the temp is just a few degrees north of zero and the wind is howling out of the northwest. And it's only November. No way Minnesotans are fair weather fans... we wouldn't know what to do with any stinkin' fair weather.

"when the gales of November came early"

 

Don't you think it would be intimidating to any visiting club if, instead of America the Beautiful, the Twin had Gordon Lightfoot sing a song letting them know that on a lake, not an ocean, but a lake, well, its Minnesota.

[ewen21]

 

I'm not cherry picking when it happens for half a season Nick.  

 

 

If one is making a case for him getting an extension you literally HAVE TO cherry pick the 37 or 38 games in July and August of 2017.  Subract that out from his career and his OPS is down near .600.  That little run amounts to about one ninth of what he has done as a major leaguer.  We should push that up front and ignore all the other stuff?

 

There is no reason to extend him.  He has been injury prone, he has had major struggles even making contact with the baseball a lot of the time and we have him under team control for a long time anyway.  I don't get the rationale behind an extension.  Even if he does become an all star calibre player he is going to bolt for the most money.  He won't look back and say....."oh gee.  The Twins had faith in me so I have to stay"

Edited November 13, 2018 by ewen21

[USAFChief]

.  I don't get the rationale behind an extension.  Even if he does become an all star calibre player he is going to bolt for the most money.  He won't look back and say....."oh gee.  The Twins had faith in me so I have to stay"

Well, he would if he was signed to an extension. Have to stay.

[DrNeau]

What have you done for me lately, Byron Buxton? 

 

According to 2018, this is the bottom line: 

* 4 DL trips

* Multiple migraines

* Blurred vision

* Broken toe
* 134 games missed
* 28 games played
* 0 HR
* 4 RBI
* .156 BA
* .383 OPS

 

Things that should matter to a player: 

* Health

* Productivity

 

Other things like "super 2 manipulation" are just clutter. This guy needs to be healthy and learn how to hit. If he would (or could) do that, his stock would soar.