Article: Believe in Byron Buxton

[lukeduke1980]

 

I believe Buxton's eyesight is damaged by repeated concussions. It's what I chalk up his poor pitch recognition to. So I am less willing to toss aside a bad season as an outlier - it may be how he is, going forward.

 

OTOH concussion damage often spontaneously heals itself after many months. It's so unpredictable. If my medically unqualified opinion holds water, he's worth keeping, even two more years, as a bounceback candidate.

 

But I'm not willing to give him a multi-year extension at this time - a short year from now such a contract may look like Ricky Nolasco's or Phil Hughes's.

I think the concussion/eyesight/pitch recognition was part of Mauer's issue at times as well.  I think he was able to mostly just react with his hands and therefore wouldn't keep his legs underneath him to drive the ball and would end up rolling everything to 2nd base. It seems as if Buxton has been at bat just trying to react as well and not anticipating anything.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I think you didn't read that right, Nick.

 

One can hope on Buxton, and also not want to sign him to a long term deal......those are two very different things.

 

Also, no way he signs an extension, super stars (or those that think they will be) who have received large bonus checks are no longer signing these types of deals. In almost every case, they've helped the team more than the player. Buxton will be a FA IN HIS PRIME YEARS. Why is he signing that away? 

 

For those saying "patience"....you do realize the Twins control his rights for only a few more years, right? If he's ok this year (which would be huge progress alas), then great...how many great years are they really getting for this patience? If you believe in Buxton and/or Sano, you should want them to be going for it this year or next year, because one or both of them will be gone in three or so years....

[caninatl04]

Thank you for your post.  I think a super-majority of people on this site would love to read a headline something like "Twins ink MVP Buxton to 10 year $400 million deal" in, say, 2021.

 

I know I don't have the right to speak on behalf of "everyone", but, nonetheless, I am guessing that "everyone" wants Buxton to succeed.  The truth is, absent 2 months in 2017, he hasn't.  As I've posted numerous times, an extension now makes zero sense from either side. 

 

If he hits .190 this coming year in 35 games, both sides know what they have-- an injury-prone head case who can't hit a breaking ball.

 

If, however, he wins both golden and platinum) glove and silver slugger, I concur the Twins should back the Brinks truck up to his home.

 

There is just so much uncertainty, I don't understand why either side would want to settle now.

[USAFChief]

Well, if I'm the player, and I'm "uncertain" about my future, I think long and hard about accepting a long term deal that gives me financial security for the rest of my life. $40M guaranteed is a lot of money to turn down, particularly when I've struggled with injury and production, and there is a strong chance I don't earn that if I turn this opportunity down.

 

And if I'm the Twins, gambling $40M over the next 6 years or so is a risk, but one I'm probably willing to take, since if it doesn't work out, it's not a killer contract, and if he succeeds, I'm not going to get him for anything near that.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Also, no way he signs an extension, super stars (or those that think they will be) who have received large bonus checks are no longer signing these types of deals. In almost every case, they've helped the team more than the player. Buxton will be a FA IN HIS PRIME YEARS. Why is he signing that away? 

Because he's getting ~$50 million in guaranteed money, which is like 7x his lifetime earnings up to this point and will take care of his family no matter what happens. And he can still reach FA in his prime. If he develops as he (and we) hope, he should have no trouble procuring another big contract at age 30/31 or so. Frankly, so long as the Twins come correct with the terms, I think it's pretty much a no-brainer for him. 

[laloesch]

I hope they (Twins) have a plan B in the works.  This team can't afford to hedge all it's hopes on two guys (Sano and Buxton) who have been wildly inconsistent.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because he's getting ~$50 million in guaranteed money, which is like 7x his lifetime earnings up to this point and will take care of his family no matter what happens. And he can still reach FA in his prime. If he develops as he (and we) hope, he should have no trouble procuring another big contract at age 30/31 or so. Frankly, so long as the Twins come correct with the terms, I think it's pretty much a no-brainer for him. 

 

You're ignoring that players are no longer doing this.......they just aren't. You can project how you'd feel all you want, but just look at the last three or four years. 

 

30/31 and older is now prime? On a site where people say all the time NOT to sign guys into their mid-30s, now it is a good idea? I'm confused by that sentence. In a league that is getting younger and younger? I don't see that.

[caninatl04]

 

I hope they (Twins) have a plan B in the works.  This team can't afford to hedge all it's hopes on two guys (Sano and Buxton) who have been wildly inconsistent.

I think, which means I am probably wrong, Plan B is the list of great prospects with arrival dates 2020-2023.

[Loops]

I think Buxton might be able to "figure it out".  It is depressing when you look at all the players we gave up on too early and see how they are doing today with other teams.  Hindsight is great!  The major concern to me right now is his health.  Will he be able to play a full season?  This might also be just a fluke and he will never be hurt again.  There is great reason financially to extend him now with all of his question marks.  If you wait until you know for sure we can't afford him!  That is baseball.  A lot of gambling!!

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think anyone has given up on Buxton just yet (and fortunately, I don't think the Twins can afford to give up on him)... I'm not, however, certain that handing him a multi-year deal is wise (unless it's incredibly team friendly). 

 

I'm also not convinced he should be starting 2019 in the majors, and I don't think handing him a job in 2019 is wise either. 

 

Likewise, I think it would be very wise to have a contingency plan in place here. I'm far more worried about Buxton's future than Sano's right now. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

You're ignoring that players are no longer doing this.......they just aren't. You can project how you'd feel all you want, but just look at the last three or four years. 

 

30/31 and older is now prime? On a site where people say all the time NOT to sign guys into their mid-30s, now it is a good idea? I'm confused by that sentence. In a league that is getting younger and younger? I don't see that.

What do other players have to do with Buxton? His circumstances are special and unique, creating perfect conditions for a deal that makes sense both ways. Very few position players with his ability have as much motivation to lock up financial security at this stage. 

 

Also, I don't recall saying anything about signing Buxton into his mid-30s being a "good idea." I said if he hits the market at age 30/31 as a star-caliber player, he'll have no trouble landing another large contract. You're the one talking about market precedent; that happens with numerous players every single offseason.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'm far more worried about Buxton's future than Sano's right now. 

This is hard for me to fathom. Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution. Sano's floor is... I dunno. Chris Carter? Worse? He has nothing to fall back on if he's not an outstanding hitter. Furthermore, only one of those guys has ever given any reason to question his drive, focus and commitment. 

[Kelly Vance]

Buck is a stud. The best defender in all of baseball at any position.  Steals 29 bases in 30 attempts and the time he was out he over slid. With his speed, if he batted left and drag bunted he would likely cross first base before the fielder even reached the ball.

 

But in terms of hitting.  He found it in 2017. He was hot and all star caliber for several months.  He lost it again last year, but he had health issues. I bet he finds it again. 

 

Anybody willing to throw Buck and Miggie out with the bath water don't know what value is. These are potential all starts that played hurt last year. But I want those critics in my fantasy league. They would hand over good players for a handful of magic beans. 

 

These are young talents that need good coaching. You gotta rub the lamp to make the Genie appear. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think Buxton could be a superstar for someone else.

 

If this was even a remote possibility why would Falvey screw around with arbitration timeline/eligibility? The value in an extended arbitration eligibility comes in lower contract, or return on trade. It might have been easier to negotiate a lower extension value after the team proposal being chosen by the Arbiter, and Buxton wouldn’t feel screwed by the Twins.

 

50 mil can fix a lot of things, but is trust one of them? If this is the plan now, why wasn’t it the plan in September? If it was the plan in Sept, why not bring him up to work with Rowson on the side and collect his two weeks?

 

My guess is, the plan was to extend him or trade him, when extension talks failed, Falvey went down the trade route in August.

[IndianaTwin]

 

I've been teaching junior high for 25 years.  I'm nothing if not patient.  By all accounts, Buxton is a tireless worker.  Be patient folks.  Baseball is a hard game.  Some just make it look easy, that's why they are superstars.

 

You get a "like" from me just for teaching junior high for 25 years. It didn't matter what you said after that.

 

But I do agree with you on that part too. 

[Doomtints]

Buxton's 2018 performance would be career ending for 95% of baseball players.  We have to keep that in perspective.

 

I still believe he can be a good player, but another year like this one and he's done. Another below average year and it's time to adjust our expectations.

[nicksaviking]

 

This is hard for me to fathom. Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution. Sano's floor is... I dunno. Chris Carter? Worse? He has nothing to fall back on if he's not an outstanding hitter. Furthermore, only one of those guys has ever given any reason to question his drive, focus and commitment. 

 

I'm still hopeful for both, but isn't Buxton's floor considerably lower than solid regular? Wouldn't his floor be what we've seen most of the past four seasons? I wouldn't say that's a solid regular. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I think Buxton could be a superstar for someone else.

 

If this was even a remote possibility why would Falvey screw around with arbitration timeline/eligibility? The value in an extended arbitration eligibility comes in lower contract, or return on trade. It might have been easier to negotiate a lower extension value after the team proposal being chosen by the Arbiter, and Buxton wouldn’t feel screwed by the Twins.

 

50 mil can fix a lot of things, but is trust one of them? If this is the plan now, why wasn’t it the plan in September? If it was the plan in Sept, why not bring him up to work with Rowson on the side and collect his two weeks?

 

My guess is, the plan was to extend him or trade him, when extension talks failed, Falvey went down the trade route in August.

They sent him down to get an extra year of service time, not for arbitration reasons.

That says they do believe in his potential. Otherwise, why would they want that extra year?

[joefish]

Hicks a superstar? I dont think so.

[Doomtints]

Buxton's floor is off the Twins in a year and out of baseball in two or three.

[USAFChief]

 

Buxton's floor is off the Twins in a year and out of baseball in two or three.

Unless there's additional, major injury...or Buxton quits...there is zero chance he's out of baseball in 2 or 3 years. He'll have a job in AAA, at a minimum, for at least another half decade.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Hicks a superstar? I dont think so.

He tied for the 10th best WAR among AL hitters this year, and led a team that won 100 games. 

[Doomtints]

 

Unless there's additional, major injury...or Buxton quits...there is zero chance he's out of baseball in 2 or 3 years. He'll have a job in AAA, at a minimum, for at least another half decade.

 

Yes. That's not his "floor" though. I would say this scenario is more probable than his "floor" which is what I mentioned.

 

As you say, he could be an AAAA-level guy who gets called up as a short term defensive injury replacement for some team (probably not the Twins), but not if he continues his 5 OPS+ trend.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Doomtints

[Thrylos]

 

 Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution.

 

If that is his floor, he spent last season in the basement. 

 

Nothing "solid" about last season.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Thrylos

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

I remain convinced that the single, biggest difference between the Twins being legitimate contenders and rebuilding is Byron Buxton, because of the difference he makes on defense. And when his bat is going well he scares the hell out of teams because of his speed. 

 

So I'd be OK with an extension. Not my money. 

 

Completely agree.  If the Twins are going to make a championship run in the foreseeable future, it is going to be because Byron Buxton is owning centerfield and the basepaths.   The alternative is mediocrity. 

[Danchat]

This is hard for me to fathom. Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution. Sano's floor is... I dunno. Chris Carter? Worse? He has nothing to fall back on if he's not an outstanding hitter. Furthermore, only one of those guys has ever given any reason to question his drive, focus and commitment.

Buxton’s floor is being constantly injured and hitting .170 which is a pretty low floor even with the defense he brings.

[adorduan]

So, this $50 million dollar extension, what exactly does it look like? I need some details....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is hard for me to fathom. Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution. Sano's floor is... I dunno. Chris Carter? Worse? He has nothing to fall back on if he's not an outstanding hitter. Furthermore, only one of those guys has ever given any reason to question his drive, focus and commitment. 

 

Buxton's floor is a repeat of 2018. There's nothing about that which screams solid regular. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Buxton's floor is a repeat of 2018. There's nothing about that which screams solid regular. 

I think we can all agree that any discussion of "floor" goes out the window when you're talking about seasons utterly demolished by injuries. I recognize that Buxton's style of play makes him more injury-prone than others but I don't expect to see him play 28 MLB games in a season often.

 

 

So, this $50 million dollar extension, what exactly does it look like? I need some details....

I laid out a vision in the blueprint linked in the article. Basically it calls for aggressive early raises, while the Twins have financial flexibility, and then reasonable salaries on the back end. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I guess Herb Score was sending a message to the Cleveland Indians when hit was hit in the face by a line drive? Rookie of the Year in 1955 and only wins 17 games in the rest of his career after being hit in 1956.

Score really wanted to send a strong message.