Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 30 Twins Prospect Rankings

[Buddy Holly]

I personally think Gonsalves  is the most over rated player on this site. Watching him at the end of the season, I saw a soft tossing Lefty that had no control. He will need to develop control and vary the speed of his pitches to make it at the Major league level. If he starts getting the ball over the plate, he may be able to be effective in the weak Central division for now. He may be able to develop into a 4 or 5 starter with time but, I think Khol Stewart is better suited to make it in the majors. Gonsalves is a trade candidate before he is exposed more, it may already be to late. I would rate him in the 30's, I know that's may be cruel but he needs to prove to me he is more than a AAAA player. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think that would be a good thing...

 

Only if you look at it wrong. No one says no to having both Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter in the system.

[gunnarthor]

Having seen Littell and Stewart, I think you have to put Littell behind Stewart. Wade and Jeffers should be near Baddoo in some order. Celestino and Alcala aren't top 15 guys for me right now. Rortvedt is easy top 20. He will be in the majors. Jax is too high but prospects 25-40 are probably interchangeable to a degree. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I don't think that would be a good thing...

It could be good if if Lewis and Kirilloff are on the Twins roster.

[Mike Sixel]

Good list. I'd probably make some changes, but they players I'd move around are pretty bunched up.

 

I just want Kiriloff to start in AA, same with Lewis. Let's see what they have, and move them aggressively like other prospects have been across the league.

 

I agree with the poster above that Gonsalves is over rated, and is more likely a stacking/RP type than a starter. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I believe this list will provide some great minor league baseball next year. I want to see the Pensacola stadium. It looks beautiful in a picture I saw...water on the background. Beautiful stadium, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar G., Rortvedt, Jose Miranda, et. al., and the Gulf Coast in the spring.  Sounds like a fun road trip (10 hours from where I live in NC). Are any of the TD contributors familiar with the  Pensacola stadium?

[Thrylos]

Those are always fun.   I still haven't thought about mine (always waiting until the next year in case of trades, cuts etc) but I will definitely have Arraez much higher that this, and so will Jeffers and Wells.  

 

Gordon is too high, so is Gonzalves.  As a matter of fact, when it mattered, Stewart out-pitched Gonsalves and showed much more poise as a major leaguer.  And they are the same age.   I hope both Gordon and Gonsalves are traded while still have some value...

 

Misael Urbina has to be on that list, probably in the top 10 as well...

Edited November 6, 2018 by Thrylos

[rdehring]

Got thinking after reading the above.  Has anyone heard if there was serious damage to the ballpark in Pensacola?  It is right on the water near the point where the hurricane came on shore.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Good list. I'd probably make some changes, but they players I'd move around are pretty bunched up.

 

I just want Kiriloff to start in AA, same with Lewis. Let's see what they have, and move them aggressively like other prospects have been across the league.

 

I agree with the poster above that Gonsalves is over rated, and is more likely a stacking/RP type than a starter. 

 

I'll be surprised if Lewis moves up to AA at the start of the season. I would expect him to spend a month or two in Ft. Myers since he moved up there later. But, it's possible. No doubt that Kirilloff will start in Pensacola. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Those are always fun.   I still haven't thought about mine (always waiting until the next year in case of trades, cuts etc) but I will definitely have Arraez much higher that this, and so will Jeffers and Wells.  

 

Gordon is too high, so is Gonzalves.  As a matter of fact, when it mattered, Stewart out-pitched Gonsalves and showed much more poise as a major leaguer.  And they are the same age.   I hope both Gordon and Gonsalves are traded while still have some value...

 

Misael Urbina has to be on that list, probably in the top 10 as well...

 

I can't argue against Arraez, Jeffers or Wells.

Stewart and Gonsalves both pitched better than Berrios did in his first MLB partial season, so I'm not ready to make too much about 24-36 innings. 

We're going back and forth on whether or not to include Urbina in the prospect handbook.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Got thinking after reading the above.  Has anyone heard if there was serious damage to the ballpark in Pensacola?  It is right on the water near the point where the hurricane came on shore.

 

I've had a chat with someone from the Blue Wahoos recently and nothing was mentioned. We'll cover them more in the near future.

[Tom Froemming]

Just for fun, here are some career numbers. Leader among the group in bold ...

 

MLB

Gonsalves 6.57 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 0.73 K:BB in 24.2 IP

Littell 6.20 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 1.27 K:BB in 20.1 IP

Stewart 3.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.33 K:BB in 36.2 IP

 

AAA

Gonsalves 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.86 K:BB in 123 IP

Thorpe 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.33 K:BB in 21.2 IP

Littell 3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.45 K:BB in 106 IP

Stewart 4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.69 K:BB in 45.2 IP

 

AA

Gonsalves 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 182 IP

Thorpe 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.31 K:BB in 114 IP

Littell 3.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.55 K:BB in 108.2 IP

Stewart 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB in 237 IP

 

Minors (all levels)

Gonsalves 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.66 K:BB in 599 IP

Thorpe 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.53 K:BB in 328.1 IP

Littell 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.41 K:BB in 667.1 IP

Stewart 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.89 K:BB in 570.2 IP

[Thrylos]

 

Just for fun, here are some career numbers. Leader among the group in bold ...

 

MLB

Gonsalves 6.57 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 0.73 K:BB in 24.2 IP

Littell 6.20 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 1.27 K:BB in 20.1 IP

Stewart 3.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.33 K:BB in 36.2 IP

 

AAA

Gonsalves 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.86 K:BB in 123 IP

Thorpe 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.33 K:BB in 21.2 IP

Littell 3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.45 K:BB in 106 IP

Stewart 4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.69 K:BB in 45.2 IP

 

AA

Gonsalves 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 182 IP

Thorpe 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.31 K:BB in 114 IP

Littell 3.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.55 K:BB in 108.2 IP

Stewart 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB in 237 IP

 

Minors (all levels)

Gonsalves 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.66 K:BB in 599 IP

Thorpe 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.53 K:BB in 328.1 IP

Littell 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.41 K:BB in 667.1 IP

Stewart 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.89 K:BB in 570.2 IP

 

 

I'd argue that MLB numbers are a much better indicator for potential future MLB performance (which is what prospects should be ranked accordingly) than any minor league numbers.

 

On the other hand, once in the show, one is not a prospect in my book, since he made it

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Thrylos

[beckmt]

Think Stewart and Arraez are too low and Gonsalves is way too high. Great list.

[clutterheart]

Looking through the list:

 

Twins are finally building some depth at catcher. Hope Jeffers can stick there.

 

3B remains this systems biggest weakness - especially since Blankenhorn isn't likley to stick.

 

Miranda, Betchold & Baddoo didnt have the breakout seasons i thought they would. Charles Mack got paid way over slot but he didnt get going. I thought he had a chance to start out strong.

 

Why isn't Urbina on this list? Id slide him in at 10.

[RedBull34]

 

Only if you look at it wrong. No one says no to having both Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter in the system.

I see what you're saying, but irregardless of the season Javier has, if Royce or Kirolloff keep it up, I don't see them getting dethroned.

 

I also don't see them losing their Rookie eligibility this year either, barring dropoffs in production from Kepler or Rosario (or injuries to the same).

[ChrisKnutson]

Looking through the list:

Twins are finally building some depth at catcher. Hope Jeffers can stick there.

3B remains this systems biggest weakness - especially since Blankenhorn isn't likley to stick.

Miranda, Betchold & Baddoo didnt have the breakout seasons i thought they would. Charles Mack got paid way over slot but he didnt get going. I thought he had a chance to start out strong.

Why isn't Urbina on this list? Id slide him in at 10.

 

Besides the lack of depth at 3B, the system is otherwise looking really good, but with Sano’s health issues being the way they are, I gotta believe the organization is thinking about drafting a college 3B in the early rounds of next year’s draft.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Looking through the list:

Twins are finally building some depth at catcher. Hope Jeffers can stick there.

3B remains this systems biggest weakness - especially since Blankenhorn isn't likley to stick.

Miranda, Betchold & Baddoo didnt have the breakout seasons i thought they would. Charles Mack got paid way over slot but he didnt get going. I thought he had a chance to start out strong.

Why isn't Urbina on this list? Id slide him in at 10.

 

Miranda was terrific and busted out as a prospect, at least for me, in 2018. After a slow start in CR, he took off. He's a legit 3B prospect in my opinion. Bechtold's season was disappointing and ended with a concussion, but I wouldn't give up on him either. Baddoo didn't' have the batting average, but everything else, across the board, was a strong step for his first full season. Mack is a high school kid coming to pro ball, making anything out of his debut is probably not too important. 

 

We're still deciding on whether or not to include Urbina in the prospect handbook. But generally, ,we only include players in the GCL and up. Urbina would probably be Top 10 though, yes. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Besides the lack of depth at 3B, the system is otherwise looking really good, but with Sano’s health issues being the way they are, I gotta believe the organization is thinking about drafting a college 3B in the early rounds of next year’s draft.

 

Unless it's'a Nick Senzel type, I'd much rather that they take shortstops and move them to third base if or when needed. 

[MN_ExPat]

Came across this MLB stat line of some "Soft Tossing" Lefty and it reminded me that we we should all temper our expectations some from the SSS (both good and bad/poor).  

 

- 5.54 ERA / 50.1 IP / 55 H / 34 R / 5 HR / 33 BB / 20 SO / 5.51 FIP / 1.748 WHIP

 

Not the best debut by any stretch.   The player's name... a certain HOF'r by the name of... Tom Glavine.   Who we all know went on to have an "meh" career .

 

Note: I'm not saying the Gonsalves will be a HOF type player, or even have a lengthy career for that matter (Yes, his debut was not pretty).   However, when you break down his appearances, he did do some things well and had some good moments (baby steps, not everybody can be Blake Snell or Walker Buehler).   This gives him something to work on going into ST.  

 

So for now, I'd keep him at least in the Top 15 personally.   That may change, but I'm willing to give him a bit of a longer leash based on his potential.

[caninatl04]

 

Just for fun, here are some career numbers. Leader among the group in bold ...

 

MLB

Gonsalves 6.57 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 0.73 K:BB in 24.2 IP

Littell 6.20 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 1.27 K:BB in 20.1 IP

Stewart 3.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.33 K:BB in 36.2 IP

 

AAA

Gonsalves 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.86 K:BB in 123 IP

Thorpe 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.33 K:BB in 21.2 IP

Littell 3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.45 K:BB in 106 IP

Stewart 4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.69 K:BB in 45.2 IP

 

AA

Gonsalves 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 182 IP

Thorpe 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.31 K:BB in 114 IP

Littell 3.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.55 K:BB in 108.2 IP

Stewart 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB in 237 IP

 

Minors (all levels)

Gonsalves 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.66 K:BB in 599 IP

Thorpe 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.53 K:BB in 328.1 IP

Littell 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.41 K:BB in 667.1 IP

Stewart 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.89 K:BB in 570.2 IP

Just curious-- what would Berrios's numbers look like both in the minors and then after, say, 20-30 MLB innings.

[caninatl04]

Kind of a tangential question, but thinking of the promotions throughout the year, what is the role of AAA?  Is it a development rung above AA or a set of injury replacement players for the Twins (or both?)?

 

Also, any minor league system that has a player like Rooker at #9 must be the envy of at least 25 clubs.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Just curious-- what would Berrios's numbers look like both in the minors and then after, say, 20-30 MLB innings.

Sure. For MLB I cut it off at his first 32 innings.

 

MLB: 9.28 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.78 K:BB in his first 32 IP
AAA: 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.10 K:BB in 229.2 IP
AA: 3.22 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.33 K:BB in 131.1 IP
Minors (all levels): 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.83 K:BB in 591.2 IP

[caninatl04]

Sure. For MLB I cut it off at his first 32 innings.

 

MLB: 9.28 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.78 K:BB in his first 32 IP

AAA: 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.10 K:BB in 229.2 IP

AA: 3.22 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.33 K:BB in 131.1 IP

Minors (all levels): 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.83 K:BB in 591.2 IP

Thank you for doing this. I guess I have two takeaways. First, obviously Berrios had a better minor league career if one concentrates on WHIP. Roughly 1.0 versus 1.2-1.4 for the others.

 

But, and I thank you again for this, we see the inherent difficulty in projecting anything from a pitcher's first 30 innings in the bigs.

 

There is still hope for Gonsalves et al.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd argue that MLB numbers are a much better indicator for potential future MLB performance (which is what prospects should be ranked accordingly) than any minor league numbers.

 

On the other hand, once in the show, one is not a prospect in my book, since he made it

 

There are plenty of guys that did well in their debuts that went on to not have a MLB career.  And there are plenty of guys who did poorly in the MLB debut that went on to have a good career. 

 

Not trashing Stewart per se, but I think we need more than a 30 IP sample size to come to any reasonable conclusion on any of them. 

[ChrisKnutson]

Unless it's'a Nick Senzel type, I'd much rather that they take shortstops and move them to third base if or when needed.

 

100% agree, but in the meantime, ‘if’ he can prove that he can handle ML pitching, I wouldn’t mind seeing Gordon at 3rd. May not be ideal, but I’d find it hard to complain about Matt Duffy-like production.

[Thrylos]

 

Came across this MLB stat line of some "Soft Tossing" Lefty and it reminded me that we we should all temper our expectations some from the SSS (both good and bad/poor).  

 

- 5.54 ERA / 50.1 IP / 55 H / 34 R / 5 HR / 33 BB / 20 SO / 5.51 FIP / 1.748 WHIP

 

Not the best debut by any stretch.   The player's name... a certain HOF'r by the name of... Tom Glavine.   Who we all know went on to have an "meh" career .

 

Note: I'm not saying the Gonsalves will be a HOF type player, or even have a lengthy career for that matter (Yes, his debut was not pretty).   However, when you break down his appearances, he did do some things well and had some good moments (baby steps, not everybody can be Blake Snell or Walker Buehler).   This gives him something to work on going into ST.  

 

So for now, I'd keep him at least in the Top 15 personally.   That may change, but I'm willing to give him a bit of a longer leash based on his potential.

 

Glavine did that in his 3rd pro season, age 21, two years younger and 3 pro season's ahead of Gonsalves.  At Gonsalves's age he went 14-8 with 3.68 ERA, pitched 186 innings, with 1.14 WHIP.  Slightly different outcome there.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I'd argue that MLB numbers are a much better indicator for potential future MLB performance (which is what prospects should be ranked accordingly) than any minor league numbers.

Berrios?

Sure. For MLB I cut it off at his first 32 innings.

 

MLB: 9.28 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.78 K:BB in his first 32 IP
AAA: 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.10 K:BB in 229.2 IP
AA: 3.22 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.33 K:BB in 131.1 IP
Minors (all levels): 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.83 K:BB in 591.2 IP

Point made.

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by tarheeltwinsfan

[ashbury]

Gonsalves is a trade candidate before he is exposed more, it may already be to late.

Other teams don't wait until a player reaches the majors to start scouting him. I think they know too.

[HrbieFan]

Big fan of Arraez. Is he ranked low because of his glove?