Heyman: Predicting the Contracts of 131 Free Agents

[Vanimal46]

https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of

 

Jon Heyman and an 'expert' predicted what the top 131 free agents are going to get this offseason.

 

Anyone that you see is way above or below what you think you would pay them?

[Ben Noble]

Just scanned it quick and Grandal at 2 yrs/$10m per seems really light to me. Hope the Twins are in on him regardless.

[Vanimal46]

The expert and Heyman both predict Harper/Machado will receive 10+ year deals. I'm not sure the length is correct, but the AAV sounds about right.

[amjgt]

Daniel Murphy is interesting-ish 

 

"32) Daniel Murphy, 2B-1B: The superb hitter may have to move to first base. Expert: 2 years, $9M per, $18M. Me: 2 years, $20M."

[TNTwinsFan]

Why not Cabrera or Harrison? I haven't looked up their defensive metrics, but, I think either guy would provide better offense than Forsythe or Gordon. Obviously, Marwin Gonzalez is the better fit for the Twins, but, I see a lot of teams trying to sign him.

 

On the pitching side, it seems like there are quite a few decent SPs and RPs the Twins would have a shot at...and with some money to spend this off season, I could see them making a play to drastically improve their pitching staff. Probably won't happen until they figure out who they want coaching said staff though.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think they have any shot (given how they choose to operate, which I am not judging as right or wrong with this post....) until number 7. I see no way they sign any of the top 6.

 

that leaves about 4 or so SP that I would have any interest in, over their existing options. I am going to guess they sign one of those to a 2-3 year deal. 

[cmoss84]

 

Daniel Murphy is interesting-ish 

 

"32) Daniel Murphy, 2B-1B: The superb hitter may have to move to first base. Expert: 2 years, $9M per, $18M. Me: 2 years, $20M."

Man. He is such a solid hitter. I know his defense is sub par but he would almost be worth it. If we ever decide to go to the playoffs again he is also really clutch. 

[USAFChief]

Both Machado and Harper are too high.

 

Dallas Keuchel more total money than Clayton Kershaw? Zero chance of that.

 

Josh Donaldson too low.

 

Eovaldi too low.

 

McCutcheon too high.

 

Andrew Miller too low.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Those relievers prices are what I expect.  It won't be cheap.

[gunnarthor]

I think Heyman and the expert (probably someone close to Boras) are both high. I think the owners are back into collusion and will keep salaries down a second straight year.

[Blake]

 

The expert and Heyman both predict Harper/Machado will receive 10+ year deals. I'm not sure the length is correct, but the AAV sounds about right.

I will be shocked if Machado is offered anything long term. Watching Machado "play" during the Series really soured me on him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, here are Heyman's predicted contracts from last offseason:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20171110221324/https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-how-much-will-the-top-80-free-agents-get/

[nicksaviking]

 

Those relievers prices are what I expect.  It won't be cheap.

 

There are a lot of good ones this year, some will get much less than expected.

 

Of course I don't want those guys (looking at you Addison Reed). 

 

That's OK though, I'd be cool if the team budgeted $40M of next year's payroll to relievers. By these projections that'd get you Familia, Ottavino and Robertson with plenty left over.

[h2oface]

 

FWIW, here are Heyman's predicted contracts from last offseason:

https://web.archive.org/web/20171110221324/https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-how-much-will-the-top-80-free-agents-get/

 

I wish that article was updated to show what contract they actually got... all in one place right there.....

[h2oface]

 

I think Heyman and the expert (probably someone close to Boras) are both high. I think the owners are back into collusion and will keep salaries down a second straight year.

 

Collusion? I think the owners are just getting smarter. Long term/high dollar contracts are horrible for a team. I hope it changes to short (2-4 years) contracts with higher per season earnings. Players want to get paid for nothing these days........ nothing in the sense of getting old and fat or hurt or just incapable of actually deserving the money they get during the contract. High incentives per season. Just because all can see the mistakes of the the past contracts and all don't want to be caught in so much wasted money doesn't mean collusion to me. The players would benefit from the contracts for the year, and the teams can't be hurt by them so much, because they aren't paying someone that ins't worth it. Nobody really deserves to be paid what they don't earn when they start sucking. But they do when they are the best. I don't see reducing the risk for the team as collusion. I see it as smart. I think all contracts should have a high amout of incentives for performance, a bunch of mutual options, and players should get off the idea they should be paid for something if they aren't earning it.  

 

 

[darin617]

This list is trash. I'm waiting for the list with the money and the teams who are going to sign the player.

 

This list is a waste of time.

[caninatl04]

 

The expert and Heyman both predict Harper/Machado will receive 10+ year deals. I'm not sure the length is correct, but the AAV sounds about right.

Does anyone know the last 10+ year contract? 

 

Last years longest was Hosmer's 8 years.  The year before was several 5 years and the year before that was 8 years (Heyward).

[Mike Sixel]

 

I will be shocked if Machado is offered anything long term. Watching Machado "play" during the Series really soured me on him.

 

Teams sign alleged rapists and guys who may have committed manslaughter. The sign players that hit children with sticks. They sign guys with multiple DWIs.....you think no team is signing Machado? I'll bet any amount of money he gets a long term deal if he wants one. 

[ewen21]

 

I will be shocked if Machado is offered anything long term. Watching Machado "play" during the Series really soured me on him.

His actions, statements and antics were embarassing.  HE made it hard for me to watch the WS

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does anyone know the last 10+ year contract?

 

 

Cano, and Pujols before him. Stanton signed a 13 year extension since then.

[Blake]

 

Teams sign alleged rapists and guys who may have committed manslaughter. The sign players that hit children with sticks. They sign guys with multiple DWIs.....you think no team is signing Machado? I'll bet any amount of money he gets a long term deal if he wants one. 

Well, maybe it was wish-casting on my part, but he looked every bit the punk he's been billed as. I would hope teams won't sign that kind of stupidity to a  long term deal. Plus, he looks to me like clubhouse poison. 

 

Wait and see.

 

I was hoping the Twins would take a look at Machado until I watched him. No thanks.

[Blake]

 

Cano, and Pujols before him. Stanton signed a 13 year extension since then.

Interesting.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Teams sign alleged rapists and guys who may have committed manslaughter. The sign players that hit children with sticks. They sign guys with multiple DWIs.....you think no team is signing Machado? I'll bet any amount of money he gets a long term deal if he wants one. 

 

But but but but but he doesn't "play the game the right way!" (sarcasm)

 

Agreed with you. No one is scared off of Manny because he is cocky and arrogant. He's an elite talent and he's going to get paid. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Collusion? I think the owners are just getting smarter. Long term/high dollar contracts are horrible for a team. I hope it changes to short (2-4 years) contracts with higher per season earnings. Players want to get paid for nothing these days........ nothing in the sense of getting old and fat or hurt or just incapable of actually deserving the money they get during the contract. High incentives per season. Just because all can see the mistakes of the the past contracts and all don't want to be caught in so much wasted money doesn't mean collusion to me. The players would benefit from the contracts for the year, and the teams can't be hurt by them so much, because they aren't paying someone that ins't worth it. Nobody really deserves to be paid what they don't earn when they start sucking. But they do when they are the best. I don't see reducing the risk for the team as collusion. I see it as smart. I think all contracts should have a high amout of incentives for performance, a bunch of mutual options, and players should get off the idea they should be paid for something if they aren't earning it.  

 

This is a very obvious outcome of teams employing analysts and practices with advanced metrics. The collusion theory requires we absolutely ignore what these metrics say about the value of FAs. It's actually surprising it took this long.

 

While I agree completely that the players goal is to get paid regardless of how bad they suck, all of the big dollar / low production FAs probably helped the mid and small market teams. Removing this inefficiency will allow the big market teams to gain more production from their FA spending. Of course, the same is true of lesser markets but the relative impact is less when you have less to spend in the first place.

[Squirrel]

Teams sign alleged rapists and guys who may have committed manslaughter. The sign players that hit children with sticks. They sign guys with multiple DWIs.....you think no team is signing Machado? I'll bet any amount of money he gets a long term deal if he wants one.

 

Given this list of ... ‘qualities’ ... that have been given contracts, I’d take Machado any day over that. I still want him. We still won’t sign him, but not because of his ‘behavioral qualities.’

[Riverbrian]

 

I think Heyman and the expert (probably someone close to Boras) are both high. I think the owners are back into collusion and will keep salaries down a second straight year.

 

Collusion isn't the right word... but yeah... they will again. 

 

 

You could prove an argument that despite being under-compensated at a shocking level last off-season, the free agents ended up being over-compensated in terms of production based on the results of 2018. 

 

A couple paid off... most did not. 

 

[nicksaviking]

Teams sign alleged rapists and guys who may have committed manslaughter. The sign players that hit children with sticks. They sign guys with multiple DWIs.....you think no team is signing Machado? I'll bet any amount of money he gets a long term deal if he wants one.

 

I’d guess he still gets paid, but sadly teams tend to make excuses for immoral behavior if the player can help them win on the field. In Machado’s case all of his issues seem to directly cause concern for productivity on the field.

 

Though I’d still bet against it, I could see it still fairly possible that all the teams shy away from a long term deal for him.

[Blake]

 

Given this list of ... ‘qualities’ ... that have been given contracts, I’d take Machado any day over that. I still want him. We still won’t sign him, but not because of his ‘behavioral qualities.’

Carole, I have to argue against signing Machado. His on-field antics during the series were the stuff of someone who's very immature maybe even spoiled.

 

I overlooked a couple of things during the playoffs, because I thought Machado was just pushing things. In the end, though, the amount of bush-league nonsense just became too much for me to ignore.

[Blake]

 

Collusion isn't the right word... but yeah... they will again. 

 

 

You could prove an argument that despite being under-compensated at a shocking level last off-season, the free agents ended up being over-compensated in terms of production based on the results of 2018. 

 

A couple paid off... most did not. 

Yep.

[Squirrel]

 

Carole, I have to argue against signing Machado. His on-field antics during the series were the stuff of someone who's very immature maybe even spoiled.

 

I overlooked a couple of things during the playoffs, because I thought Machado was just pushing things. In the end, though, the amount of bush-league nonsense just became too much for me to ignore.

I get that. And I don't think we have to worry about the Twins signing him. But given the list that Mike gave, I'll take Machado's antics over any of that. While childish and immature, it doesn't compare to the heinous nature of rape, manslaughter, child abuse/molestation or wife battery. He's still a player with a far better talent than anything we have and think that his immaturity can be tempered. I didn't hear reports of these antics being quite as pronounced when he played for Baltimore, but then maybe they were but just not given quite the attention as playing for the Dodgers has given him.