Article: Twins Claim OF Michael Reed From Atlanta

[SomeGuy]

 

It also prevents the team from signing someone better in the OF. I'm not gambling on this guy being as lucky in 2019 as he clearly was in 2018.

In my opinion outfield is one of the only positions we don't need to sign someone in.  Our priorities should lie in Relief pitching, Middle Infield, and a DH that can back up 1st or 3rd. 

[Vanimal46]

In my opinion outfield is one of the only positions we don't need to sign someone in. Our priorities should lie in Relief pitching, Middle Infield, and a DH that can back up 1st or 3rd.

I'd prefer to aim higher even if it looks like we're set in the OF... Similar to what Milwaukee did. I respect your take though.

 

I agree they need 2-3 really good bullpen arms, a legit SP, middle IF, and someone who can play both 1B/3B.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He may be a AAAA player, but he's 26 and coming off of a fantastic season at AAA. Seems like a fine depth move as a back-end of the roster pickup to me. He should basically take Zack Granite's roster spot, at least on the 40 man.

Reed might be better than Granite, but Granite has options. We won't be able to shuttle Reed back and forth from AAA. (So he pretty much has to be back end of the 25 man rather than 40 man)

[Mike Sixel]

Out of options? Not interested at all. They don't need another Robbie Grossman (though odds are this guy is worse) they can't move around to AAA and back. 

 

I'm also with van.....get some great players, don't clutter up the 25 man with replacement players. Like, you know, Milwaukee.....

[SomeGuy]

This is kind of funny, according to Baseball reference's WAR metrics, Kepler had a higher 2018 WAR than Bryce Harper,  2.8 to 1.3

 

Fangraphs brings some sanity to the situation with Max at 2.6 and Harper at 3.5.

 

Kepler is average and Rosario is solid... Comes down to if we value Buxton's defense enough to give him the center field job (I do).  Then we have Cave and Grossman in the mix as 4th OF.  I say cut ties with Robbie but he does have the OBP thing going for him. 

 

Another funny fact, Grossman's average dWAR over the last 3 years is worse than Miguel Sano's was the year he played right field (baseballreference dWAR).

[Seth Stohs]

 

vs LHP Reed hit .409/.474/.561  in AAA and .400/.531/.520 in AA last season.  Cave had a.642 OPS vs LHP and .844 OPS vs RHP last season.  

 

I think that between the two of them, you might have a nice outfielder.

Also good to see a righty throwing OF as well (Grossman throws with his left.)

 

Just curious... why would it be nice to have a righty-throwing outfielder... Why would that be a benefit? 

 

I get it that it's nice to have another right-handed hitting outfield option, just not sure why what arm they throw with matters.

[Han Joelo]

I don't know if there is any Max Muncy or Justin Turner in this guy, but maybe there is a little Aaron Hicks in him.  Or maybe it's apples and oranges.  As long as he doesn't preclude signing a surefire improvement somewhere else on the team, I guess I like the move.

[Major League Ready]

I don't quite understand all the Grossman hate. I also don't care if they keep him as he certainly has limitations. However, I like to look at the most recent data, in this case the 2nd half numbers. Grossman was the best hitter on the team with a wRC+ of 128. Rosario's wRC+ was 64 for the 2nd half. The only other above average hitters on the team were Garver (118) Austin (112), Polanco (106). Astudillo had a wRC+ of 158 but only 78 ABs.

 

BTW ... Johnny Field's wRC+ for the 2nd half was only 5 points lower than Adam Jones. Let's not go sign guys because they were great in their prime when they already declining. Before anyone turns this into "are you nuts ... Fields VS Jones", that was not even remotely the point.

Edited November 1, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[mlhouse]

So, while I am not opposed to picking up a guy on waivers that might have a bit of upside, but other than the fact that the Brewers gave him a better shot, how is this guy any better than LaMonte Wade?  

 

Reed was a high school draft pick that made his major league debut in his 4th year after his draft year at 22 years of age.  Wade was a college draft pick  in Rookie ball as a 21 year old.  He finished his 22 year old campaign in A+.  Played a full year of AA ball as a 23 year old.  As a 24 year old he repeated AA to start and got a late season move to AAA.

 

There was not a single level were Reed was a better player statistically than LaMonte Wade.

 

In the A level Midwest League Reed played one full season with a .785 OPS.  Wade has a partial year at Cedar Rapids and had an .805 OPS with virtually identical slash totals.  

 

In the Florida St Advanced A league Reed has a .774 OPS.  In Wade's half season at Ft Myers he had an OPS of .904.  This earned Wade a step up with only a half a season of A+ ball.

 

Then, as a 22 year old Reed advanced from AA with a .802 OPS to AAA and then for a brief appearance with the Brewers in 2015.  Reed also was selected to play in the Arizona Fall League at the end of theseason.  Wade, as a 23 year old had an almost identical .805 OPS and the Twins kept him in AA the entire season.

 

After making his debut, the Brewers sent Reed back to AAA were he had an OPS of .731 and again got a late season call up to the Brewers. Wade was kept back in AA as a 24 year old and after starting the first half of the season there with a .837 OPS played the second part of the season in AAA Rochester were he struggled at the plate and with some injuries. 

 

For those that claim that the Twins are not conservative in their approach to how they move their minor league players, this example is pretty straight forward.  When Michael Reed had a decent start as a 22 year old player in AA they moved him up to AAA and gave him a big league call up.  The Twins kept Wade in AA despite having  the exact same season and then LEFT HIM IN AA TO START THE NEXT SEASON. 

 

Wade has been a better minor league player than Michael Reed, not by much but still the better player. 

 

LaMone Wade has a higher minor league batting average than Michael Reed .284 vs .269.  Wade has a higher minor league on base percentage than Michael Reed .391 vs. .382.  A higher minor league slugging percentage than Michael Reed  .420 vs .395.  Wade has only 3 fewer home runs in the minors 35 vs. 38 in 1,000 fewer minor league at bats.  And Wade has out performed him at every level, most often playing in the same exact leagues.

 

Next season Wade will turn 25 years old and still has not made the major leagues and it is doubtful he will next season because the "Twins Way" means he has to prove his AAA year again.

 

By that same age level,  Michael Reed has had 3 MLB opportunities with two different teams despite being at best an equal player.

 

Again, competition for roster spots is a good thing for a team but there is no doubt in my mind based on how the Twins front office has worked these past couple of years that they will give Reed the first shot over Wade.  I think this demonstrates another example of a tremendous lack of loyalty to the players that are drafted and played throughout the Twins organization.  

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Just curious... why would it be nice to have a righty-throwing outfielder... Why would that be a benefit? 

 

I get it that it's nice to have another right-handed hitting outfield option, just not sure why what arm they throw with matters.

 

It is the arm that has the glove that matters.  A right hand throwing RF can get to balls in the corner or towards the line much better than a lefty throwing RF, and vise-versa for LF., thus turning potential doubles into singles and triples into doubles.

 

Thus the discussion about Molitor switching his two corner OFs, having Rosario at RF and Kepler to LF (where he even admitted was more comfortable;) something that I suspect will happen in 2019.

[rdehring]

 

So, while I am not opposed to picking up a guy on waivers that might have a bit of upside, but other than the fact that the Brewers gave him a better shot, how is this guy any better than LaMonte Wade?  

 

Reed was a high school draft pick that made his major league debut in his 4th year after his draft year at 22 years of age.  Wade was a college draft pick  in Rookie ball as a 21 year old.  He finished his 22 year old campaign in A+.  Played a full year of AA ball as a 23 year old.  As a 24 year old he repeated AA to start and got a late season move to AAA.

 

There was not a single level were Reed was a better player statistically than LaMonte Wade.

 

In the A level Midwest League Reed played one full season with a .785 OPS.  Wade has a partial year at Cedar Rapids and had an .805 OPS with virtually identical slash totals.  

 

In the Florida St Advanced A league Reed has a .774 OPS.  In Wade's half season at Ft Myers he had an OPS of .904.  This earned Wade a step up with only a half a season of A+ ball.

 

Then, as a 22 year old Reed advanced from AA with a .802 OPS to AAA and then for a brief appearance with the Brewers in 2015.  Reed also was selected to play in the Arizona Fall League at the end of theseason.  Wade, as a 23 year old had an almost identical .805 OPS and the Twins kept him in AA the entire season.

 

After making his debut, the Brewers sent Reed back to AAA were he had an OPS of .731 and again got a late season call up to the Brewers. Wade was kept back in AA as a 24 year old and after starting the first half of the season there with a .837 OPS played the second part of the season in AAA Rochester were he struggled at the plate and with some injuries. 

 

For those that claim that the Twins are not conservative in their approach to how they move their minor league players, this example is pretty straight forward.  When Michael Reed had a decent start as a 22 year old player in AA they moved him up to AAA and gave him a big league call up.  The Twins kept Wade in AA despite having  the exact same season and then LEFT HIM IN AA TO START THE NEXT SEASON.

 

Wade has been a better minor league player than Michael Reed, not by much but still the better player. 

 

LaMone Wade has a higher minor league batting average than Michael Reed .284 vs .269.  Wade has a higher minor league on base percentage than Michael Reed .391 vs. .382.  A higher minor league slugging percentage than Michael Reed  .420 vs .395.  Wade has only 3 fewer home runs in the minors 35 vs. 38 in 1,000 fewer minor league at bats.  And Wade has out performed him at every level, most often playing in the same exact leagues.

 

Next season Wade will turn 25 years old and still has not made the major leagues and it is doubtful he will next season because the "Twins Way" means he has to prove his AAA year again.

 

By that same age level,  Michael Reed has had 3 MLB opportunities with two different teams despite being at best an equal player.

 

Again, competition for roster spots is a good thing for a team but there is no doubt in my mind based on how the Twins front office has worked these past couple of years that they will give Reed the first shot over Wade.  I think this demonstrates another example of a tremendous lack of loyalty to the players that are drafted and played throughout the Twins organization.  

And Wade didn't do squat at his first attempt at AAA.  Does he get better next year or beyond, maybe.  But we don't know that AA wasn't as good as he is going to get.  To me at least, he still has to prove it.  As does Gordon.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

Next season Wade will turn 25 years old and still has not made the major leagues and it is doubtful he will next season because the "Twins Way" means he has to prove his AAA year again.

 

By that same age level,  Michael Reed has had 3 MLB opportunities with two different teams despite being at best an equal player.

 

Wade will likely not make his MLB debut with the Twins, pending injuries.  Why?  He is yet another left hand hitting and throwing OF.  Kepler, Cave are ahead of him (Rosario and Buxton are not going anyway) and Kirilloff might surpass him this season.   

 

He is caught in the numbers and the Twins should see him as trade bait this offseason.

[Seth Stohs]

 

It is the arm that has the glove that matters.  A right hand throwing RF can get to balls in the corner or towards the line much better than a lefty throwing RF, and vise-versa for LF., thus turning potential doubles into singles and triples into doubles.

 

Thus the discussion about Molitor switching his two corner OFs, having Rosario at RF and Kepler to LF (where he even admitted was more comfortable;) something that I suspect will happen in 2019.

 

I've always thought Rosario and Kepler should have switched too. Not because of the glove hand, but because of the arms. Kepler has a plus arm, but Rosario has a plus-plus arm (though sometimes a bit wild). 

 

As for the balls toward the corner, I don''t think that''s a huge deal by any means. Maybe it's' a 3-inch difference or so, even somewhat depending on the angle that they're running. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Hey Vanimal, I think your bang on the buck for Jones and McCutchen would be limited. Guys on the wrong side of 30, used to commanding salaries of 14-18 million per, and in steady statistical decline. Jones was only 0.2 WAR last season. Rosario, a healthy reinvigorated BB, and around the corner Max is my wish list. Reed falls in after Cave, maybe alongside Wade in the pecking order. Depth is good.

 

I"d agree with Jones, I think McCutchen might still be pretty useful though. Players with good on base skills seem to age better than guys without them; they tend to have a high floor even if there's a limited ceiling. The Twins could really use a couple .360+ OBP guys at the top of the lineup. I think McCutchen could easily be a Shanon Stewer-esque non-flashy but effective veteran spark for this team.  

[DocBauer]

I"d agree with Jones, I think McCutchen might still be pretty useful though. Players with good on base skills seem to age better than guys without them; they tend to have a high floor even if there's a limited ceiling. The Twins could really use a couple .360+ OBP guys at the top of the lineup. I think McCutchen could easily be a Shanon Stewer-esque non-flashy but effective veteran spark for this team.

Absolutely agree, which is why he's at the top of my wish list

Enough hitting, OB and power to make a difference at the top of the order, or, somewhere in the middle. I just think he's a perfect fit.

 

He can also play defense, is young enough to warrant 2-3 years, and provides even more roster depth and flexibility. (Kepler seeing time at 1B, for example).

[Riverbrian]

Reed is out of options. I support the team in any efforts to find talent wherever it may be found while at the same time worry a little because that’s a 25 man spot that could be used on the next Mike Trout.

 

Here’s to hoping that Reed is given the opportunity to prove himself and become the next Mike Trout.

[Teddy]

I hope this signals the end of Robbie Grossman in a Twins uniform.

[Steve Lein]

 

Just curious... why would it be nice to have a righty-throwing outfielder... Why would that be a benefit? 

 

I get it that it's nice to have another right-handed hitting outfield option, just not sure why what arm they throw with matters.

 

I think it can matter for sure. I would prefer a righty-throwing outfielder in RF, and lefty-throwing one in LF, for instance. 

 

To add onto Thrylos description, it's also in the physics of making the throw back into the infield. As a right-fielder, if I throw right handed that means I can cut a ball off toward the line, plant a foot to spin and uncork a throw into second base using that motions momentum to put something behind it. Same idea as a lefty in left field. 

 

The other hand can't do that action. They have to backhand the ball, stop their momentum, and then step into the throw back toward the infield.

 

I can't remember the link, but I've seen a sports science like thing on this. The release time difference was significant, and that can play as big of a part as throwing velocity in the timing making throws. That's the whole reason the "crow hop" throw isn't actually sound throwing mechanics.

[Thrylos]

 

 

As for the balls toward the corner, I don''t think that''s a huge deal by any means. Maybe it's' a 3-inch difference or so, even somewhat depending on the angle that they're running. 

 

If a ball is hit in the right field line, a lefty throwing OF will have to backhand it with his back to the plate and pivot around his axis for the throw to the plate.   A righty will get his glove facing the plate, transfer and throw without the pivot.

 

Not that much different than what a left hand fielding SS/3B would do to the throw to 1B, but it is acceptable at the OF because it is twice the distance of the throw from the SS/3B where every half second really matters.

[USAFChief]

 

I think it can matter for sure. I would prefer a righty-throwing outfielder in RF, and lefty-throwing one in LF, for instance. 

 

To add onto Thrylos description, it's also in the physics of making the throw back into the infield. As a right-fielder, if I throw right handed that means I can cut a ball off toward the line, plant a foot to spin and uncork a throw into second base using that motions momentum to put something behind it. Same idea as a lefty in left field. 

 

The other hand can't do that action. They have to backhand the ball, stop their momentum, and then step into the throw back toward the infield.

 

I can't remember the link, but I've seen a sports science like thing on this. The release time difference was significant, and that can play as big of a part as throwing velocity in the timing making throws. That's the whole reason the "crow hop" throw isn't actually sound throwing mechanics.

And the issue will be reversed on balls in the gaps, no?

 

This is a non issue.

[Mike Sixel]

What matters is speed and reads and arm strength. Handedness is over rated so much....IMO, of course.

[Steve Lein]

 

If a ball is hit in the right field line, a lefty throwing OF will have to backhand it with his back to the plate and pivot around his axis for the throw to the plate.   A righty will get his glove facing the plate, transfer and throw without the pivot.

 

Not that much different than what a left hand fielding SS/3B would do to the throw to 1B, but it is acceptable at the OF because it is twice the distance of the throw from the SS/3B where every half second really matters.

 

As a righty-thrower playing left field is also how I tore my ACL, because I made a backhand catch and didn't allow my momentum to slow down enough before trying to pivot around as Thrylos mentions here to make the throw toward home.

 

My knee crackled, leg bowed, and I ended up flinging the ball as best as I could toward our shortstop as I crumpled to the ground in the fetal position.

[Steve Lein]

 

And the issue will be reversed on balls in the gaps, no?

 

This is a non issue.

 

Actually, no...And the reason is because balls in the gap are more likely to be doubles anyway, and/or fielded by the center fielder.

 

I won't get into it, but there's statistical probability stuff on this out there if you look for it.

 

Edit: And I could actually put it this way too -> A ball hit 'toward' the gap that the RF or LF cuts off, is a much shorter throw into 2B to prevent a double.

[USAFChief]

 

Actually, no...And the reason is because balls in the gap are more likely to be doubles anyway, and/or fielded by the center fielder.

 

I won't get into it, but there's statistical probability stuff on this out there if you look for it.

 

Edit: And I could actually put it this way too -> A ball hit 'toward' the gap that the RF or LF cuts off, is a much shorter throw into 2B to prevent a double.

The throws are shorter, but more likely to be a double anyway?

 

I'm skeptical.

 

And if I were in charge, I'd lose no sleep over the handedness of my outfielders.

[Steve Lein]

 

The throws are shorter, but more likely to be a double anyway?

 

I'm skeptical.

 

And if I were in charge, I'd lose no sleep over the handedness of my outfielders.

 

No, no, you miss the difference between the two that I could have clarified.

 

1. I'd venture the most common double is one that gets past a LF or RF into the gap, thus balls hit 'toward' that vicinity are more likely to be doubles than any other balls in play. 

 

2. Then to attack the idea of the a LF or RF cutting a ball off hit 'toward' the gap, that throw is shorter.

 

And I wouldn't lose sleep either, but I would have this preference. I've always thought Rosie and Max should be swapped too, like others have said here.

[Riverbrian]

 

The throws are shorter, but more likely to be a double anyway?

 

I'm skeptical.

 

And if I were in charge, I'd lose no sleep over the handedness of my outfielders.

 

Steve is correct, It does matter... however... how much it matters is the question. 

[scottz]

I only want outfielders that can throw with either hand.

[USAFChief]

 

No, no, you miss the difference between the two that I could have clarified.

 

1. I'd venture the most common double is one that gets past a LF or RF into the gap, thus balls hit 'toward' that vicinity are more likely to be doubles than any other balls in play. 

 

2. Then to attack the idea of the a LF or RF cutting a ball off hit 'toward' the gap, that throw is shorter.

 

And I wouldn't lose sleep either, but I would have this preference. I've always thought Rosie and Max should be swapped too, like others have said here.

If it's easier for a LH throwing left fielder to stop a ball down the line and make the throw to second, shouldn't we then look for LH throwing third basemen, for ground balls between them and the line, based on the same reasoning?

[Steve Lein]

 

If it's easier for a LH throwing left fielder to stop a ball down the line and make the throw to second, shouldn't we then look for LH throwing third basemen, for ground balls between them and the line, based on the same reasoning?

 

No.

 

[mlhouse]

 

Wade will likely not make his MLB debut with the Twins, pending injuries.  Why?  He is yet another left hand hitting and throwing OF.  Kepler, Cave are ahead of him (Rosario and Buxton are not going anyway) and Kirilloff might surpass him this season.   

 

He is caught in the numbers and the Twins should see him as trade bait this offseason.

 

Jake Cave, another player whose comparable stats are not as good as LaMonte Wade's.  

 

In A+ Florida St league Cave's career OPS was .749 vs. Wade's .904. 

 

In AA, Cave has a career .742 OPS versus Wade's .815.  In fact, both players have identical career 14 AA home runs but Wade hit 14 in 595 at bats versus Cave's 913.   

 

The difference in careers is that when Jake Cave had a .674 OPS year going in AA the Yankees promoted him to AAA (to be fair he started again in AA the next season) but when Wade had a full season .805 OPS in AA Chattanooga the Twins made him start the next season at the same level instead of promoting him. 

 

In the Yankees system he would have been most probably promoted to AAA during the 2017 season and in the 2018 Spring Training given a good chance to make the majors.  But since Wade spent the entire 2017 season in AA he wasn't really given a chance and a guy like Ryan LaMarre was brought north instead.  Even if he did not make the club out of spring training, In the Yankees system a player that performed in AA like Wade did  would have started the 2018 season in AAA and been available for an in-season call up.  The Twins instead sent Wade back to AA putting him behind Cave to start the season.  Given the "talent" that we had in Rochester this season this move was ridiculous.  

 

If I were an agent for a college player with remaining draft eligibility drafted by the Minnesota I would recommend that they not sign with the Twins.  The reason is that the Twins methodical minor league promotion strategy means you will be delayed in reaching the major leagues.  If you look at the college players drafted by the Twins on their 2018 roster, not a single player made it before the age of 23.  Dozier (25), Garver (26), Gibson (25), Hildenberger(26), and Rogers(25) were all outstanding prospects that the Twins slowly moved through the system even though their big league team was sucking air that did not get a chance until they were 25 years old.  Tyler Duffey (24), Aaron Slegers (24), and Andrew Vasquez (24) were "rushed" based on the Twins system.

 

I have already pointed out the Vasquez example, but Hildenberger followed the essentially same course.  Trevor Hildenberger has a minor league career 1.57 ERA.  Yet, despite success at a level the Twins made him repeat the same level at the start of just about every professional season just like they did with Vasquez.   What is even worse, when your team is going to lose 103 baseball games like the Twins in 2016, you would think a pitcher with a 0.70 ERA and 10.5 K/9 might be a guy you would bring up to see if he is a long term answer instead of the players the Twins brought in.  

 

It makes zero sense and frankly, these types of decisions (or non-decisions) are why the organization is where it is at.