Article: Offseason Blueprint: Changing the Course

[jkcarew]

It's hard to admit as a fan of the Twins that a rebuild would be the best path...especially so seemingly early in the Buxton/Sano era.  But, IMO, past failures can't inhibit future actions.  Just because the last rebuild was so recent and/or didn't work, doesn't mean that rebuild can't be the correct path faced with the current situation.

 

Having said that, I do think that the choice of approach for the Twins in 2019 is NOT easy/obvious.  But I think another year of half-measures is very risky. Going half-way and hedging and hoping...in either direction...is the exact recipe for winning 75-85 games a year and never accomplishing anything meaningful.

Edited November 1, 2018 by jkcarew

[Tomj14]

 

I'm not sure why we'd plan on them not doing so....At some point, the team needs to trust its processes (or drastically change them, which this FO is). Your other option is to pretty much quit, really. 

I am not the one saying to quit, I am one saying the time is now with the current "prospect" guys we have and add to them with FA and supplement with prospects and trading prospects, because quitting on this group and hoping and praying the next group is going even our talent with the best teams is a fools errand.

[Riverbrian]

Yes, we 100% disagree on everything above (Twins relative to top of AL)...

 

Except for that part there at the end!

(Fist Bump)

[nicksaviking]

 

Both of you seem to be saying the same thing so I'm replying to both. 

 

I hope not to be misunderstood... I'm all for loading up the roster with as much quality as you can in the off-season to increase your odds of going all the way through. I am not saying that we should just settle for Jake Cave and pass on Pollock and just try to piranha your way through, all the way to the finish. I've lost count on how many times I've typed... give me 25 guys who can play so hopefully, I'm believable when I say it. Ultimately, I want my Twins to look like the Astros and Dodgers currently look on paper. 

 

But, if you guys are looking at a team in contention in July. A team full of piranha's and it's Jake Cave leading the way... if you are both saying we shouldn't bother trading a prospect to acquire Justin Verlander because the Astros are just so loaded. If you feel there is no point because the roster doesn't compare to what Boston is putting down on paper... therefore let's not sacrifice our future to take a shot when the team you currently have are earning that shot...  We are in 100% disagreement. 

 

The Playoffs are 20 games max. You just got to go 12-8. The Orioles could go 12-8 in their current state at any time and are capable of going 12-8 at any time against the best of the best or the worst of the worst and it just might be Renato Nunez who hits 6 home runs at key moments that leads the way. You never who is going to step up or if the paper tigers on the other side are going to experience the bad timing of stepping down at the absolutely wrong time. 

 

We just got done watching the Brewers take the Dodgers to Game 7 with a rotation of Chacin, Miley and Gio Gonzalez. A rotation that completely shut down the Rockies before doing decently against mighty Dodgers. Was it the Rockies just not hitting as a team at the moment or did Chacin and Miley just kinda find it at the right time? I don't know but it kinda happened to the Dodgers as well and things like this happen every single year. Meanwhile Kershaw and Ryu fronted the Dodgers rotation and finished 3 wins and 5 losses combined while allowing 25 runs in 49 innings. These paper assessments don't mean much in a 20 game sample size. So acquire some additional help if your team has a shot. Energize them the best you can. You never know what player becomes Eovaldi or what player becomes Darvish but you should try. 

 

Never pass on a playoff race because you think you know better. Load up in the off-season... see what happens... If you are contention... load up some more. If you are not... sell off the expiring contracts for more farm options.

 

And even if you don't load up in the off-season and somehow, someway, through voodoo, crazy hops or found light-switches your scrappy team is in contention for a playoff spot... never ever ignore it.  

 

The players will let you know which direction you need to go and if they are telling you by their Wins and Losses to go for it... Join them. 

 

As for this off-season... I see absolutely no reason to look at what we have and look at what Boston, Houston and New York have and then just throw in the towel to focus on 2020 instead. If I was the Orioles... Yeah... I'd sell off and kick that can down the road. The 2019 Twins should enter the season with plenty of pitching depth, players with talent who are cheap, controllable and could collectively find the light switch, with money to spend and minor league talent that can acquire additional talent... plus... what should be another year of a weak AL Central. 

 

Let's go Twins!!! 

 

BTW... To avoid any confusion... I'm not saying we should trade Royce Lewis for David Freese to support the team. I always remain hopeful that the front office has some common sense along those lines when it comes to supporting a team. 

 

I think you have my position all wrong. I want the Twins to get whatever the 2019 Justin Verlander comp is. I want them to throw a suitcase of cash at the dozens of quality free agent relievers. I want them to find the best bats they can and worry about which positions they'll play come spring. I want them to make the moves to be the Astros and the Red Sox. But I want them to do it in the offseason, not in July after they've already farted away any chance at a first round bye.

 

But if they can't do that now, I don't want them to go and start blowing the equity they will need later to get to that point just so they can put together another mid-season dog and pony show that's clearly not up to snuff simply to placate the fans and keep TVs on an extra couple of weeks.

 

I don't want any damn piranhas. Piranhas are for division champs, not World Series champs.

[Platoon]

We're currently "enjoying" the fruits of what was universally called one of the top 3 farm systems in baseball.

 

Why will the next rebuild be better than that one?

And why will the next free agent be better than Morrison? Or (fill in the blank). One can wish until hell freezes over that the Twins will go out and fill all their holes with some of the big names on the market. But if you continue to do that you are ignoring 58? years of history. Not all, but too many FA will not come to this locale, all momentary considerations being close to equal. And neither Calvin or the Pohlads have given any indication they are going to spend money out of their own pockets at the level needed to even begin to entice that level FA. So you can sit and wish for something that won't happen, or at least go a route that is available. I used to want a Lamborghini. I decided if I couldn't have a Lamborghini I wouldn't have anything. One day it dawned on me that refusing to acknowledge not being able to have a Lamborghini wasn't getting me anywhere. Literally. So I bought a Ram pickup.it ain't no Lamborghini, but at least I now have a chance of getting somewhere!

[Riverbrian]

 

I think you have my position all wrong. I want the Twins to get whatever the 2019 Justin Verlander comp is. I want them to throw a suitcase of cash at the dozens of quality free agent relievers. I want them to find the best bats they can and worry about which positions they'll play come spring. I want them to make the moves to be the Astros and the Red Sox. But I want them to do it in the offseason, not in July after they've already farted away any chance at a first round bye.

 

But if they can't do that now, I don't want them to go and start blowing the equity they will need later to get to that point just so they can put together another mid-season dog and pony show that's clearly not up to snuff simply to placate the fans and keep TVs on an extra couple of weeks.

 

I don't want any damn piranhas. Piranhas are for division champs, not World Series champs.

 

That's what I thought you meant. 

 

I agree with most of it. The off-season is for loading up the roster and I want them to load up the roster this off-season. It's much harder to fix your roster once the season is started and everybody has found homes. I'm not looking for piranhas either but... 

 

Where we may differ... if we get piranhas and they in contention... I'm bringing them some more food in full support. 

 

I will never look at a stacked Red Sox roster and say... We can't compete in a 20 game sample size... no sense in trying. 

 

I understand the desire to not mortgage the future and I don't want it mortgaged either but when I look at the prices paid by the Brewers this year to get Moustakas and Schoop... I don't think you have to. 

[tvagle]

A little Preview of the next You Be the GM Tool

 

Here's Tom's Blueprint (didn't remove Ollie Drake for authenticity) with projected salaries and notes from his OP

 

Future payroll does not appear to be much of a concern with this Blueprint

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I am not sure why we think the next set of prospects are going to turn out better than the current ones in the majors.

Because they are entirely different human beings?

 

Not a guarantee, but neither is your logic.

[Tom Froemming]

I don't understand why everybody's making conclusions on this recent group of graduated prospects. The ink is far from dry yet. Some of the guys have proven to be building blocks already, but remember that Buxton is 24 and Sano is 25.

 

Maybe they never amount to what we envisioned, but it's still way, way too early to throw in the towel.

[DocBauer]

My $.02 plus.

 

I think we can all agree on 3 points:

 

1] Whether you state/claim/believe the rebuild has begun or not, there is a lot of young talent/potential on the roster, even though we may have not seen the results we'd like to.

 

2] There remain holes and opportunity on the roster, especially 2B and the bullpen.

 

3] There is indeed a "second wave" of prospects set to arrive in 2019 and 2020 which include, but is not limited to, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Graterol, Rooker, Khirilloff and Lewis.

 

Where the differences reside...if I may...resides in the viewpoints of these 3 points.

 

1] We haven't seen the results wanted and anticipated from the first wave of the rebuild candidates, therefore they should be moved, replaced, traded if possible, etc.

 

2] Said holes of opportunity on the roster should be filled by a "blow up" of the roster, moving on from the players mention in point 1, via trades and major FA signings.

 

3] The next wave coming will be better and bring new hope along with point 2 being implemented.

 

I believe the truth rests somewhere between all of this. To paraphrase the old adage, "there is point A on the left, point B on the right, and the truth is somewhere in the middle."

 

Affixing blame to the young players not yet achieving fully anticipated expectations is fruitless! For the most part, they have played under one manager, but two different FO. Bemoaning "the system" they were developed under is a moot point as they have reached the ML level now. What IS important, is what happens now? Especially with a new manager and at least partially new staff to be in place.

 

Tom Kelly famously stated a player really needs 1,500 to 2,000 AB to really figure things out, and for you to figure out what you have in that player. As someone mentioned in another post with me, that doesn't mean EVERY prospect gets or deserves said number of bats! Some guys deserve it and get it, and some you obviously know quickly they don't/won't.

 

In regard to point #1, and the first wave; believe in them or not, Rosario is the old man of the group at 27. And after a lot of debate he simply wouldn't get it, or do it, he did and has. (Though injury robbed him the second half of 2018). But these guys were highly regarded and top prospects within the Twins system. A couple of them ranked amongst the best prospects in all of baseball. And despite frustration and disappointment, ALL of them have shown flashes of what they can do at the ML level. Sano an All Star in 2017, Buxton earning a handful of MVP votes for his second half in 2017, Polanco performing so well the second half of 2017 and putting up good numbers his half season of 2018, flashes and hit streaks by Kepler, etc, etc. To deny that is short sighted and stubbornness. (Again, not saying expectations have been met as of yet!) NOW, consider talent, potential, rankings, flashes shown, and consider TK's opinion.

 

ML AB's

 

Sano: 1406

Buxton: 979

Rosario: 1889

Kepler: 1446

Polanco: 1051

Garver: 348

Austin: 367

 

*NOTE: I include Garver because he's smack dab in the middle of the first and second wave, and Austin for what should be obvious reasons.

 

What stands out to me is Rosario, the oldest of the "first wave, is the most complete and productive player of the bunch with the most Ad's and has been either the most healthy, or hasn't had a suspension, or missed any appreciable time. (Until his injury in the ,last half of 2018). Kepler could be what he is, a nice piece. Sano and Buxton could each wash out, or one of them make it maybe. But isn't it also just as likely that BOTH of them, especially with a new staff, a new season, and better health begin to tap their potential in 2018?

 

Point #2 isn't even valid, IMO. There is arguement/debate over the history of the FO dumpster diving and signing mediocre FA to simply achieve some competitive status quo. But the current FO has literally been on the job for almost exactly 2 years! Other than changing managers, declining a couple of options and signing a single OF flier, the 2019 off season hasn't even begun yet! What they did last off season, rather obviously IMO, was make some smart, short-term moves to augment a surprising 2017 run without giving up prospects, or handcuffing themselves financially in any way.

 

Yes, injuries happen to all teams. Sometimes they overcome, sometimes their seasons are disrailed, in any sport. But how much better is the rotation with Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi and a healthy Santana? How much better is the lineup with the "normal" Sano we have seen, a healthy Buxton having any kind of season, a healthy Dozier, (who finally admitted to playing hurt), and Morrison just hitting to his career norms? If the Twins do nothing more than just split their absurd 1 run loss record they have a winning record.

 

When things went south, they did what they should have done, which was make moves to add even mkre talent to the system. Though even as I type this, I still feel they made a huge mistake in regard to Pressly!

 

Point #3 IS important! The Twins legitimately, yet again, have a very deep system with a "second wave" of talented players getting oh so very close. And it may be as highly regarded as the players in the "first wave". But NOBODY builds a complete team with a "single wave" of talented prospects. And not every good/top prospect turns out. We all know this. Which is why it takes a couple "waves" of prospects, trades, and smart signings to build a complete roster/team.

 

The talent on hand, still young and inexperienced no matter what, needs to be healthy, coached and developed. That's why we have a new manager and a re-vamped coaching staff still to be named.

 

There is available money to be spend this off season to add a couple 2-4 really nice pieces to build the roster, as is, awaiting the arrival of the "next wave", for 2019, 2020, and beyond. Even the teams with the most "complete" teams you can think of make trades and signings...sometimes short term...to fill holes.

 

It is WAY TOO EARLY to give up on a collection of 27yo and younger players and blow the whole roster up in some sort of re-build when, honestly, the re-build is taking place, and has been taking place the last couple of seasons.

 

There is nothing inherently wrong with the FO taking some fliers on guys. Sometimes they pay off. And I have never believed that just splurging in FA will "buy" a team. There is so much more involved. And yes, sometimes you just get burned on a guy. But the Twins, and the FO, are in an enviable position right now. They have a collection of young talent at the ML level just waiting to be healthy, motivated, and coached to unlock their potential. (Reflect on the young Berrios and all the position pkayers already discussed and their ML time, flashes and AB). They have a very talented second wave of prospects to arrive over the next two seasons. And they have the finances and flexibility to go out right now and make a couple moves for 2-3 year deals...unlike the calculated 1 year deals last year...to augment the roster.

 

Where they are also fortunate, what they need most is a bat, (preferably one who can also play in the field), a 2B, and bullpen help. And with a deep FA field overall, and with depth at all 3 spots available...and I still believe an adjusted/financially restricted market...opportunity awaits.

 

The key is the smart and right guys to sign! And that's where the FO earns their money and reputation this year. Sign McCutchen, or Brantley, and deepen your lineup and OF. Pick the best 2 RP you believe in. Examine the best 2B options available for the next 2 years.

 

No blow up needed right now. Just be smart and aggressive without being stupid. Do your damndest to work with what you have on hand. Make 2019 the best you can, and keep working forward.

[Tomj14]

 

Because they are entirely different human beings?

Not a guarantee, but neither is your logic.

I think people are missing my point. My point is continuing to say the Twins need to tear down and rebuild and wait for the next group of prospects to be better than the best teams is foolish. The current group is one of the best group of prospects the Twins have ever had, the next group looks good, but to think they are guaranteed to turn out let alone be better than the current group is crazy.

So my point is get better players though FA and trading some of the prospects and try to win.

[Tomj14]

 

 

My $.02 plus.
 

Doc, you said and typed up what I was trying to say. You did a way better job!

[USAFChief]

 

And why will the next free agent be better than Morrison? Or (fill in the blank). One can wish until hell freezes over that the Twins will go out and fill all their holes with some of the big names on the market. But if you continue to do that you are ignoring 58? years of history. Not all, but too many FA will not come to this locale, all momentary considerations being close to equal. And neither Calvin or the Pohlads have given any indication they are going to spend money out of their own pockets at the level needed to even begin to entice that level FA. So you can sit and wish for something that won't happen, or at least go a route that is available. I used to want a Lamborghini. I decided if I couldn't have a Lamborghini I wouldn't have anything. One day it dawned on me that refusing to acknowledge not being able to have a Lamborghini wasn't getting me anywhere. Literally. So I bought a Ram pickup.it ain't no Lamborghini, but at least I now have a chance of getting somewhere!

Well if your goal is to get to the end of the road, and you don't care who gets there ahead of you, great.

 

But if you want to get there first, I think you need to find a way to get the Lamborghini.

 

And I want the Twins to get there first.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think people are missing my point. My point is continuing to say the Twins need to tear down and rebuild and wait for the next group of prospects to be better than the best teams is foolish. The current group is one of the best group of prospects the Twins have ever had, the next group looks good, but to think they are guaranteed to turn out let alone be better than the current group is crazy.

So my point is get better players though FA and trading some of the prospects and try to win.

 

And that's fine, I just don't like the logic of "Well X failed, so Y will too"  Because you can apply that to trades, FAs, prospects, or virtually anything the FO might do.  

[jmlease1]

 

Tom, an intelligent and well thought out and argued plan. But I am going to disagree with you none-the-less.

I DO believe the rebuild has begun, which is in the form of Sano, Buxton,Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Garver, etc. Now, we haven't seen the desired results or consistent performances as of yet. Is that the players, the coaching, injuries, or system development, or dumb luck it's taking longer to hone their skills? That's the tricky part! And I dont have an honest answer.

I would add 2 quality bullpen arms. I would roll with Moya, Vasquez or Mejia as a 2nd LH arm with Roger's. Combined with May, hopefully a rebounding Hildenbeger creates a much better pen with auditions for the end spot(s).

I sign McCutchen to play OF and DH. He's productive, has a couple good years in him, and the lineup and roster become deeper and more flexible.

I'm OK with Lowry as a stopgap at 2B. But I'd prefer a trade for someone like Starlin Castro. He's got offense, is much younger, and could have value as a starter even after Lewis arrives.

We have 3 SP who could be gone after this year. But I'd re-sign Gibson. Odorizzi and Pineda could be kept, moved to the pen, or offered up in trade during 2019 if/when Romero, Gonsalves, Thorpe begin to step forward.

This is not a series of 1 year deals. Its 2-3 year deals to augment the current roster, a wait the second wave of prospects, and still have trade flexibility for the next couple of seasons.

Much depends still on continual development for Sano, Buxton and Kepler. (Along with some better health). But I see moves like this adding to the roster, not just fill ins.

 

I dunno if this plan is achievable, but I kinda like it. McCutcheon is actually a pretty good fit for this team, and while he would cost quite a bit more than Grossman...I like him a lot better. Grossman was awful until September, has no defensive value, really and is basically a 1 trick pony. McCutcheon may have faded defensively, but he can still be solid in a corner and should be a consistent hitter. at 31 he's still likely to have a few more good years in him...maybe a 3-year deal?

 

 

[Platoon]

I don't understand why everybody's making conclusions on this recent group of graduated prospects. The ink is far from dry yet. Some of the guys have proven to be building blocks already, but remember that Buxton is 24 and Sano is 25.

 

Maybe they never amount to what we envisioned, but it's still way, way too early to throw in the towel.

It wasn't long ago that Rosario would have been shipped out for a warm left handed pitcher.as for Sano and Buxton? I will keep Buxton, and others who aren't interested may keep Jake Cave. It's a deal I would make any day. Sano is a little more difficult. Talent isn't the issue. Commitment and work ethic appear to be a possible impediment to his reaching his potential. If he figures that out, he will scare MLB pitchers for a decade. While he may well do it, I am not anywhere near as confident of him as Buck!

[Mike Sixel]

People seem to have forgotten Eddie's 2nd half fall off. His hitting was actually slightly worse this year than last.....

 

I'm not criticizing him, btw.....but people really seem to have forgotten. He was league median among LF in terms of offense. Which is fine, btw.....he's a good, if not great, player. 

[Platoon]

Well if your goal is to get to the end of the road, and you don't care who gets there ahead of you, great.

 

But if you want to get there first, I think you need to find a way to get the Lamborghini.

 

And I want the Twins to get there first.

We don't differ in the desire to "get there". But we do differ on the possibilities of how to get there. Since nothing in Twins history indicates they are willing to take the premium FA route to getting there, I personally spend little time imagining the Twins signing a Bryce Harper type FA(s). Nor ahould Falvine. They know the constraints ownership has placed on them. Plus they must fortify themselves with a mood altering beverage or three, when they make the obligatory "JP has assured us we have all the means necessary.....blah blah blah". The Twins can put together a competitive orginisation with a long term basis. It's going to take time, which isn't easy to accept. But that impatience isn't really, as yet, Falvines fault. It's from years of Terry Ryan simply selling the vision of being a "contender" in the generally mediocre central division. That philosophy had its merits. It kept him employed, it kept the turnstiles spinning, and it made the bottom line on JP's P&L black. While Pohlad hasn't actually thrown the vault wide open, he knows he has to do something to reverse the attendance (read revenue) downturn. So while Flavey and Levine won't be given unlimited funds, they will get a chance to build a sustainable and effect operation. But no matter how much wishin and hopin goes on, Harper isn't coming here.

[Riverbrian]

To me it all depends on how you view this current “wave”.

 

If you look at them as inexpensive members of the 25 man roster that give you the payroll space to add talent in addition to them. The doors of possibility open up for you.

 

They don’t cost much more than Ryan LaMarre does. There is no need to trade them. Just roster them and ask them to win a job instead of being handed a job come hell or high water.

 

If you want Sano to get his act together introduce him to your new acquisition Nick Castellanos and make him earn his AB’s.

[gagu]

An interesting, intelligent blueprint, Tom.

I question the Gibson trade. The team should try hard to lock him in at a reasonable price. Easier said than done but on paper today, I'd consider Gibson a guy that could be a suitable #3 starter in a future post-season run.

That said, he shouldn't be off the table. But the return on a trade should be somewhat significant. Erceg is Milwaukee's 4th ranked prospect in a system that only has one player in the top 100. I'd want more. Spitballing here, but maybe package Gibson, Gordon, and a teen-ranked prospect for their top prospect, 30th MLB, 23-year-old Keston Hiura. 

In the reader satisfaction department, my request would be that the age is included when discussing the possible prospects we could trade for. 

Anyway, thanks for a good, thought-provoking read.

[beckmt]

Prospects still have high value if you are not a club with almost unlimited funds.  Twins issue seems to be moving the needle from prospect to (superstar or very good player).  Look at the Red Sox.  THey have a high payroll, but still have plenty of home grown talent there.  That is what the Twins are lacking is getting the players to the next level.  It may take a complete overhaul of the Twins minor league system and coaching to do that.  

Moving a player like Kepler would hurt, but you do not get very good talent in return without giving something that hurts up.  The FO just has to be right.  What I am seeing now is players doing better after leaving the Twins then they did here.  That did not happen much in the Terry Ryan era.  Do not know how the Twins position players will work out, but they have a chance to have a very good to great lineup, however I do know you will not win without a considerly better pitching staff, and I see good, but not great pitchers coming (maybe with the exception of Gastrol).  Twins also have an almost blank payroll sheet after 2019, they can afford to make trades and signings to greatly improve this area (and not all will work, but Twins will fail if they do not try). I am hoping they stretch a little and go for the upper parts of the pitching Free Agents, not the middle and lower tier.  If they do not I am afraid we are back to the Terry Ryan era of being competitive, but not being a real threat to win the World Series.  

[mike8791]

Lots of fat to chew on in this chat, but let's throw a new wrinkle into the discussion.  As reported in MLBTR:

 

The Indians remain in a highly competitive stance coming out of the 2018 season, particularly in an exceedingly weak overall American League Central division. After three-straight divisional titles, the organization still has one of the game’s best — and most affordable — core talent groups.

Still, there are plenty of needs on the roster and seemingly less resources to utilize to fulfill them. The club has in recent years both committed salary and dealt well-regarded prospects to supplement its fantastic bunch of stars.

Given this state of affairs, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link), the Indians “will listen to trade offers” involving key veteran players. He specifically cites top hurlers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, along with pricey veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis, as theoretical trade chips.

 

Ok, just speculation for now, but by seemingly jettisoning Brantley, the Indians seem focused on budgetary constraints going into 2019.  Their major advantage over the Twins is their starting foursome and if they are really looking at trading either Kluber or Carrasco, the balance of power shifts considerably in the AL Central, if the Twins are ready to capitalize.  No, the Indians are not likely to trade one of these pitchers to an interdivision rival but such a possibility should force the Twins FO to concentrate even more on reeling in a #1/#2 starter as their top offseason priority and look at 2019 as a realistic playoff opportunity.

 

My feeling is that Free Agency will not work for this organization for all the reasons cited in this thread, but trading one of our future "stars" should definitely be on the table to have a reasonable chance of landing someone like Baumgartner, Greineke, Matz, etc.  Start with the determination of which one of Buxton/Sano has best chance to rebound and start sending out feelers on the other(I'm in the keep Buxton camp, btw).  While Sano might not fetch the haul he would have a year ago, he still might have significant value to a rebuilding team seeking a talent-heavy package of prospects along with a major league ready power hitting 3B.

 

If the Indians are indeed willing to trade one of their pitching stars, the Twins must jump at the opportunity of a widening window of contention.  Right now as things stand with the two rosters the Twins have too many holes to make up to legitimately compete in 2019 but the combination of Twin additions and Indian losses can narrow that gap in a big hurry.  I doubt whether Falvine will wait for the Cleveland FO to act this offseason but in any case, such news should propel them to greater efforts to add real difference-makers to this team in the offseason.

[Squirrel]

Well if your goal is to get to the end of the road, and you don't care who gets there ahead of you, great.

 

But if you want to get there first, I think you need to find a way to get the Lamborghini.

 

And I want the Twins to get there first.

The tortoise and the hare might disagree with you re the Lamborghini.

[Major League Ready]

 

I dunno if this plan is achievable, but I kinda like it. McCutcheon is actually a pretty good fit for this team, and while he would cost quite a bit more than Grossman...I like him a lot better. Grossman was awful until September, has no defensive value, really and is basically a 1 trick pony. McCutcheon may have faded defensively, but he can still be solid in a corner and should be a consistent hitter. at 31 he's still likely to have a few more good years in him...maybe a 3-year deal?

 

I am not a Grossman fan and McCutchen was once a MUCH better player than Grossman but check you facts before you make these statements. The player who's September stands out the most is MCCutchen. 

 

wRC+ for July / Aug / Sept

 

Grossman --- 116 / 149 / 149

 

McCutchen --- 96 / 123 / 149

 

Sure are a lot of people focused on how good players were in the past as opposed to how good they will be in the future.

 

BTW ... Rosario ------- 67 / 75 / 61 and many are sure he is key. Not if he continues to have an absolutely horrible approach.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[Han Joelo]

 

The tortoise and the hare might disagree with you re the Lamborghini.

Yeah...and are we talking a paved racetrack here, or a dirt road through the jungle?

[Squirrel]

Yeah...and are we talking a paved racetrack here, or a dirt road through the jungle?

Yes.

 

In baseball, I think the path is revealed after you’ve traversed it not before. It seems more often than not we plan for one and get the other.

[Han Joelo]

 

Yes.

In baseball, I think the path is revealed after you’ve traversed it not before. It seems more often than not we plan for one and get the other.

Too true.  And what makes baseball so fun is that even when you've got your Lamborghini floored--see Kenley Jansen in the WS--sometimes it just isn't fast enough.

[Tom Froemming]

 

An interesting, intelligent blueprint, Tom.

I question the Gibson trade. The team should try hard to lock him in at a reasonable price. Easier said than done but on paper today, I'd consider Gibson a guy that could be a suitable #3 starter in a future post-season run.

That said, he shouldn't be off the table. But the return on a trade should be somewhat significant. Erceg is Milwaukee's 4th ranked prospect in a system that only has one player in the top 100. I'd want more. Spitballing here, but maybe package Gibson, Gordon, and a teen-ranked prospect for their top prospect, 30th MLB, 23-year-old Keston Hiura. 

In the reader satisfaction department, my request would be that the age is included when discussing the possible prospects we could trade for. 

Anyway, thanks for a good, thought-provoking read.

Hey that sounds amazing to me ... which also means it's probably unrealistic. If the Brewers decide to move Hiura, they're going to set their sights much higher.

 

Gibby has been very good for a year and a half, but he's still got a 94 ERA+ for his career and only comes with one year of team control. Milwaukee is in a competitive stage right now, so I doubt the Gordon and a mid-teens prospect moves the needle at all for them.

 

What do I think it would take to get Hiura? Gibson plus Polanco ... plus May or Garver? Not even sure that would do it, as Hiura was mentioned as a potential centerpiece deal to get Jacob deGrom, who's both better than Gibby and under multiple years of team control.

[yarnivek1972]

I don't understand why everybody's making conclusions on this recent group of graduated prospects. The ink is far from dry yet. Some of the guys have proven to be building blocks already, but remember that Buxton is 24 and Sano is 25.

 

Maybe they never amount to what we envisioned, but it's still way, way too early to throw in the towel.

25 is no longer considered young in MLB. Look at today’s stars. Mookie Betts just turned 26. He’s a 3 time all star and possible AL MVP this year. He’s at least sure to finish top 6 for the third consecutive year.

 

Sano and Buxton need to stop being coddled and they need to start performing or their careers are done. The time for excuses is over. If they aren’t good enough, move on, period.

Edited November 4, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Doctor Wu]

 

I'm in favor of trading Kepler and one of either Odorizzi or Gibson but not both. I think dumping half of the 'named' starting pitchers would have a longer term negative influence on the players we are keeping. There would be reasonable intrepidation that one of the other starters might go down for a week, a month or for the entire season. This would look bad regardless of the envisioned outcomes--to players and fans.

As for Kepler, he's attractive for other teams. As Tom pointed out, Buxton has such low trade value that it would represent a give-away and Sano might be even worse--you have the hitting problems and the potential attitude problems.

My take on this idea is that Buxton, despite his setbacks last year, still has MUCH more trade value than Kepler. That said, I'd  hang on to both of them at this point.