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Article: Offseason Blueprint: Changing the Course


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Tom, this is definitely something I can back if the FO thinks we’d be better off. However, Cleveland is not a super team, they are slowing falling into the mediocre category and their window is closing, our window opened in 2017 imo. If we do retool, and say spend two more years doing so, Chicago’s window will have probably opened and we’re facing more competition that’s younger than Cleveland and primed for long term success. Fortunately for the Twins, we likely don’t have to worry about the Tigers and Royals till at least mid 2020’s

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Contending for a central title vs. contending for a world series are two very different things. Sure, with a good offseason we could on paper compete for the central but in no way is this team even remotely close to being world series contenders

I’d slightly disagree, I do believe that the best teams are projected to be winners, but typically the hottest teams going into the playoffs are the ones that go the deepest. It’s honestly hard to predict who that’s going to be.

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Buxton was awesomish in 2017, Sano and Castro were good, and the team won a whopping 85 games. With ESan being the best he could possibly be. Oh, and where is the Dozier season coming from on this roster? This team isn't close to being great, not even a little.

 

All I want is a choice, go in some for this year, but with an eye on teh future (stop only signing 1 year FA deals......), or tear down more than they have.

 

Nothing about last off season made me think this FO thought this was close to a very good team....all of their moves were short term, and on the margins.

 

So, I could get behind this practice, under 2 conditions.

 

first: They are SUPER AGGRESSIVE with promotions and letting young players fail so they can learn and get better. If Kiriloff is killing the ball, and not in MN, then this plan is not for me. Because there is talent enough to be really good in 2020, but only if some of it gets experience this year.

 

second: They are aggressive about adding MLB talent in 2020 and 21, in FA and trades, to fix whatever holes exist. If they just sit on the money, well, good luck.....

 

I would be better with this plan if they kept Gibson or signed Corbin (pipe dream, he's going to a huge market with a huge budget). But, I would be ok if they didn't do that, not thrilled, but ok.

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Contending for a central title vs. contending for a world series are two very different things. Sure, with a good offseason we could on paper compete for the central but in no way is this team even remotely close to being world series contenders

I was alive and have vivid memories of 1987. I remember the Cards in 2006 and the Giants and the Royals. Any team that makes the playoffs can win it and have. In not just baseball but Hockey and Football as well. If we keep trying to win the game on paper first... we might as well give up now.

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This front office has not committed to anything yet and if I suspect they are not ready to yet either. While other clubs commit to group of players and build around them to try to put winning team together we have not committed to one player either young or old. Now we are coming to this year we have 2/3 of the rotation that will become free agents next year. we have heard of no talks with any players to extending them contract and only one that was offered longer term contract was Buxton on very team friendly offer last year. I my experience as baseball fan a team needs core of baseball players that you can construct team around not always most talented but nucleus that provides right club house and does thing that make team good. The Twins have not had this now for at least three years or more with the exception of Mauer who has been in last years of his career. The year the Twins signed Tori Hunter with Mauer they started winning what we heard how they led this young group of players. This past year we had Brian Dozier and Escobar but its hard to be club house leader when your Front office is trying to trade you and not committing to you beyond your contract. This brings to me this team now who do the Twins have as leaders for the future my answer is nobody everyone is playing for their next contract or just waiting to be traded. Rosario is probably best hitting player the Twins have but he doesn't appear to me a team leader. Buxton could become a team leader but question there is can he overcome his own problems to ever become that player. Sano is not team leader now and I have my doubts if he will ever become that type of player. Everyone is convinced here on the board we need to trade Kepler because he's at his peak but I think he's going to become monster of player in next few years. He is type of player that could become leader for this club he play's smart, works hard, versatile in where he can play, and his stats should be better than they have been for batting but seems to have been unlucky in getting hits. I think he could be core player and leader for the future of this club but time will only tell on that. But getting back to this front office its time for them to start committing to this team by deciding who and how they are going to build this team around. This where I believe they are very weak as front office they have all these theories but when it comes to building a team they lack experience and baseball eyesight to know how to build a team with a group of players. The analytical people are what somebody said other day on one baseball shows these are people if they were poker players are used to limited poker where the game is limited by statistics but people like Red Sox are playing unlimited poker they are betting even when stats say something else not saying they don't use analytical information but they are also using their baseball and people knowledge to construct their teams and how they play the game. The fault of previous Front office was they were behind on analytics but they did have people skills and eye skills to find baseball players now this front office is just opposite but they are inexperienced in running a club and so far shown they have lack of commitment to their team when they shown they can compete. I will hear how they signed all the free agents this past year but the plan was based on short term where they could sell their signees and still didn't commit to any player long term. We see how that played out and the now were left with no experienced players and whole lot of questions left on remaining players. Now we start with new manager that could be good manager but problem no matter how good manager you are you need a team to manage. Only saving grace for the Twins is there in divisions with three other clubs in the rebuilding mode but we will see of these three teams who rebuilds fastest my guess is by end of next season we will be wondering how were in last place.   

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Tom, an intelligent and well thought out and argued plan. But I am going to disagree with you none-the-less.

 

I DO believe the rebuild has begun, which is in the form of Sano, Buxton,Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Garver, etc. Now, we haven't seen the desired results or consistent performances as of yet. Is that the players, the coaching, injuries, or system development, or dumb luck it's taking longer to hone their skills? That's the tricky part! And I dont have an honest answer.

 

I would add 2 quality bullpen arms. I would roll with Moya, Vasquez or Mejia as a 2nd LH arm with Roger's. Combined with May, hopefully a rebounding Hildenbeger creates a much better pen with auditions for the end spot(s).

 

I sign McCutchen to play OF and DH. He's productive, has a couple good years in him, and the lineup and roster become deeper and more flexible.

 

I'm OK with Lowry as a stopgap at 2B. But I'd prefer a trade for someone like Starlin Castro. He's got offense, is much younger, and could have value as a starter even after Lewis arrives.

 

We have 3 SP who could be gone after this year. But I'd re-sign Gibson. Odorizzi and Pineda could be kept, moved to the pen, or offered up in trade during 2019 if/when Romero, Gonsalves, Thorpe begin to step forward.

 

This is not a series of 1 year deals. Its 2-3 year deals to augment the current roster, a wait the second wave of prospects, and still have trade flexibility for the next couple of seasons.

 

Much depends still on continual development for Sano, Buxton and Kepler. (Along with some better health). But I see moves like this adding to the roster, not just fill ins.

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First, I agree that the target is 2020 and not 2019.  Second, I think resigning Gibson makes a lot of sense. 

 

Finally, and most importantly, a previous poster wrote:  "when the most heralded prospects in recent vintage haven't consistently graduated to become what we thought/hoped they would be."

 

When I look at the Top Prospects list and see expected arrival dates of 2020-22, I, on the one hand, fantasize about a youth oriented, very inexpensive, very competitive team in 2022.  However, given recent history, I have to wonder how many / few won't actually stall out like Gordon, Sano, Bux, Gonlsalves, etc., etc.

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Not interested in trading prospects, or any of our core players just yet, especially with the large amount of quality players available via free agency. Screw signing Machado or Harper, if there’s any offseason to go crazy on FA signings, it’s this one.

 

Here’s to hoping that the FO surprises us and signs Lowrie, Cruz, Freese, Herrera, Kelly, and Allen.

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I can still hear the echoes of years past with a large contingent saying just wait until Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios get here. #1 Ranked Farm System in Baseball and all that. 

 

Now they are here and we have plans being made to wait until the next wave. 

 

giphy.gif

 

The Baseball Gods have a twisted sense of humor. It can't be denied. 

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BTW, I really do have a question about Moya since his name is being bandied about here on the list. His fastball speeds are around 85-87 and he's throwing change-ups and sliders in the 70s and low 80s. Is he like Tommy John or Greg Maddux or something? I would be scared right down to my socks to put him in during a tight game with this type of velocity. Am I wrong? (Remember, I don't get any chance to watch him unless the Twins are playing the Angels and the game is on the weekend, so I really haven't seen him pitch.)

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To me, rebuilding would entail trading Buxton and Sano.  Trading Gibson and Kepler would be close, though.  

 

I agree with Tom, and think Michael Reed might be the biggest move of the offseason (yet.). I've never heard of any of the minor leaguers coming back in the proposed trades, so they aren't good enough.  Instead, of trading guys for other teams prospects that won't pan out, my plan would be playing the prospects we already have that won't pan out.

 

On the other hand, some roster churn might be in order.  

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Buxton was awesomish in 2017, Sano and Castro were good, and the team won a whopping 85 games. With ESan being the best he could possibly be. Oh, and where is the Dozier season coming from on this roster? This team isn't close to being great, not even a little.

and in 2018 they won 7 less games, and got nothing from Sano, Buxton, Castro and Santana.

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Do we have a better bat or glove than Mauer at 1b?

I posted on this thread and mentioned that no where was Mauer's name even mentioned and my post has disappeared. Evidently no one on this thread has heard of Mauer. I also said that the FO is no where near the level of planning expressed on this thread.

 

BTW ND Fan made another great post and he may as well have been peeing in the proverbial wind from any response he got (not). The guy just makes too much sense I guess.

 

It is also a fact that MLB in general, not just the Twins, has big problems as a result of the huge contracts with poor ROI, length of games, and lack of interest of the younger generation(s), and over exposure on TV and other media. The heyday is long gone.

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I am completely with you on the theory that being caught in the middle is worse than either extreme. That was probably Terry Ryans biggest weakness, although he likely preferred the term "competitive"? I don't want the Twins to be able to possibly compete with Cleveland for the Central title, or for the #2 WC slot. I want them to be able to complete for the whole deal. Watching the teams involved this year leaves one with a clear vision of how far away we are from that goal. That is if we could see that far.

 

Don't cobble together something in 2019 for another faux playoff run. Hoping that another year of rebuild won't happen won't make the necessity for one go away. Nor will the Twins ever walk away with a major difference making FA. Wishing for, or operating on, that happenstance is both disappointing and foolhardy.

 

Take the time to build a solid foundation, draft and develop, and move pending FA for something more that lottery choices. That's the sensible process in this market. Which leave this remaining question: Can Falvine acoomplish it? To that matter, the jury is still out.

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I don't buy it.

Red Sox (Benintendi, Devers, Rodriguez)

Astros (Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa)

Yanks ( Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez,Miguel Andujar)

 

The guys over 25 on those team have more talent, sure.

 

If the only option for the Twins is to have the most talent, well then it is time to shut the team down, because that isn't going to happen for multiple reasons. First the top Free Agents don't want to be here and second the ownership is un-willing to pay for the top talent.

 

Every one of those players listed were drafted, signed as an international free agent or traded for. Those all are alleys the Twins have equal access to. Add Betts, Bogaerts, McCullers, Osuna, Torres and Judge, sort them with the Twins young players and the Twins young players will nearly all be at the bottom of the list. I don't know if any of the Twins young players would even crack the top 10 of such a list. 

 

I think things are pointing up, but this team is a long way back talent-wise from competing for a title. I'd think the quickest way to the front would be for the new coaches, instructors and strength and conditioning people to propel the guys we already have to their fullest potential. If that's possible. There's still a considerable gap between them and their peers at the moment though.

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I was alive and have vivid memories of 1987. I remember the Cards in 2006 and the Giants and the Royals. Any team that makes the playoffs can win it and have. In not just baseball but Hockey and Football as well. If we keep trying to win the game on paper first... we might as well give up now.

 

There were only four playoff teams in 1987 though. The 2006 Cardinals which had future HOFers Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen in their primes never had to win a play-in game. Today's game is asking the Twins to win FOUR different series against superior teams to take the crown.

 

I'd rather the team stop settling for the chip-chair-and-a-chance odds and start making their own odds by drafting, developing, signing and trading for an actual elite team so as they don't have to play the part of the scrappy little underdog all the time. In today's game I don't know that a team can do the chip-chair-and-a-chance method while they build for the elite team.

 

And I'm not even saying the team can't make the right moves to become elite this year. I just don't want them to take half measures and sacrifice a legit chance at winning it all in the coming years so we can cross our fingers for a .500 season and a measly AL Central crown this year.

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There were only four playoff teams in 1987 though. The 2006 Cardinals which had future HOFers Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen in their primes never had to win a play-in game. Today's game is asking the Twins to win FOUR different series against superior teams to take the crown.

 

I'd rather the team stop settling for the chip-chair-and-a-chance odds and start making their own odds by drafting, developing, signing and trading for an actual elite team so as they don't have to play the part of the scrappy little underdog all the time. In today's game I don't know that a team can do the chip-chair-and-a-chance method while they build for the elite team.

 

And I'm not even saying the team can't make the right moves to become elite this year. I just don't want them to take half measures and sacrifice a legit chance at winning it all in the coming years so we can cross our fingers for a .500 season and a measly AL Central crown this year.

We agree that we should produce the strongest roster possible to increase the odds of surviving every stage of the playoffs but it sounds like we might disagree a bit on the approach.

 

I believe that if that scrappy team finds themselves in contention for a chip and a chair and a chance, it becomes the obligation of the front office to support those scrappy players at the trade deadline.

 

The players are the primary indicator if Jake Cave is leading us to a playoff berth. We shouldn’t be sitting here saying we have no chance because Jake Cave is not Mookie Betts because once the playoff starts It just might be Willians Astudillo who wins the MVP like Steve Pearce did while Jake Cave hits .210 like Mookie Betts did.

 

A wild card team needs to go 12-8 to win the title. The 2018 Baltimore Orioles were capable of going 12-8 if they were given a chip and a chair and a chance. The playoff are a small sample size.

 

I think it starts in the off-season. Load up the roster and let the players decide who is and who isn’t leading us onward and adjust accordingly.

 

It’s a two step process

 

Step one - Qualify for the playoffs

 

Step Two - Compete like your life depends on it for possibly 20 games.

 

You will never find me saying “we don’t have anybody who matches up to Clayton Kershaw so let’s not trade prospects for renting Someone who MIGHT be the guy who catches fire.

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I am completely with you on the theory that being caught in the middle is worse than either extreme. That was probably Terry Ryans biggest weakness, although he likely preferred the term "competitive"? I don't want the Twins to be able to possibly compete with Cleveland for the Central title, or for the #2 WC slot. I want them to be able to complete for the whole deal. Watching the teams involved this year leaves one with a clear vision of how far away we are from that goal. That is if we could see that far.

Don't cobble together something in 2019 for another faux playoff run. Hoping that another year of rebuild won't happen won't make the necessity for one go away. Nor will the Twins ever walk away with a major difference making FA. Wishing for, or operating on, that happenstance is both disappointing and foolhardy.

Take the time to build a solid foundation, draft and develop, and move pending FA for something more that lottery choices. That's the sensible process in this market. Which leave this remaining question: Can Falvine acoomplish it? To that matter, the jury is still out.

We're currently "enjoying" the fruits of what was universally called one of the top 3 farm systems in baseball.

 

Why will the next rebuild be better than that one?

 

 

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We're currently "enjoying" the fruits of what was universally called one of the top 3 farm systems in baseball.

 

Why will the next rebuild be better than that one?

This organization's had a top 5 farm system for more years than they've been a top 5 MLB team.

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You will never find me saying “we don’t have anybody who matches up to Clayton Kershaw so let’s not trade prospects for renting Someone who MIGHT be the guy who catches fire.

 

That doesn't interest me. I want the Twins to go get their guy who can match up with Kershaw, Sale, Verlander, Kluber, Severino before the season even starts. If none are available, then they better figure out how to get Berrios or Gibson to the next level. This team has been crossing their fingers and doing 'MIGHT win' all this century and it has yet to pay off. They need to start doing 'SHOULD win'.

 

And the pitching angle is only one path, if they're able to get the bats to be an onslaught of destruction that can overcome awesome pitching, fine, I really don't care how they do it, just be an elite team. I'm just so tired of being the cute underdogs and the team and the fans eating it up. 

 

Step 1: Kick *** all year long and avoid the play in game

Step 2: Vegas odds make you one of the favorites giving you zero excuses for failure

Step 3: Just win the WS already

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There were only four playoff teams in 1987 though. The 2006 Cardinals which had future HOFers Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen in their primes never had to win a play-in game. Today's game is asking the Twins to win FOUR different series against superior teams to take the crown.

 

I'd rather the team stop settling for the chip-chair-and-a-chance odds and start making their own odds by drafting, developing, signing and trading for an actual elite team so as they don't have to play the part of the scrappy little underdog all the time. In today's game I don't know that a team can do the chip-chair-and-a-chance method while they build for the elite team.

 

And I'm not even saying the team can't make the right moves to become elite this year. I just don't want them to take half measures and sacrifice a legit chance at winning it all in the coming years so we can cross our fingers for a .500 season and a measly AL Central crown this year.

I am not sure why we think the next set of prospects are going to turn out better than the current ones in the majors.

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I am not sure why we think the next set of prospects are going to turn out better than the current ones in the majors.

 

I'm not sure why we'd plan on them not doing so....At some point, the team needs to trust its processes (or drastically change them, which this FO is). Your other option is to pretty much quit, really. 

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I was alive and have vivid memories of 1987. I remember the Cards in 2006 and the Giants and the Royals. Any team that makes the playoffs can win it and have. In not just baseball but Hockey and Football as well. If we keep trying to win the game on paper first... we might as well give up now.

That's one way of looking at it. But, I'd disagree in this era...or at least at this particular point in AL history.  2019 isn't going to be anything like 1987. Three great teams in the AL and (at least) one extra round to negotiate in the playoffs. The AL was anything but unpredictable in 2018, and will be similar in 2019. Houston, Yankees, Boston, are not good teams, they are championship-caliber teams that are not all going to fall of the table in 2019.

 

Meanwhile, the Twins are not currently in the universe of these 3 teams. Could the Twins go all-in and steal a central-division crown in 2019? Maybe. I'd just as soon see a plan to REALLY compete, and to do so for an extended period of time with young and controllable talent. I'd love it if that plan gave us a chance to win 90 games in 2019. But if it doesn't, it doesn't.

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That doesn't interest me. I want the Twins to go get their guy who can match up with Kershaw, Sale, Verlander, Kluber, Severino before the season even starts. If none are available, then they better figure out how to get Berrios or Gibson to the next level. This team has been crossing their fingers and doing 'MIGHT win' all this century and it has yet to pay off. They need to start doing 'SHOULD win'.

 

And the pitching angle is only one path, if they're able to get the bats to be an onslaught of destruction that can overcome awesome pitching, fine, I really don't care how they do it, just be an elite team. I'm just so tired of being the cute underdogs and the team and the fans eating it up. 

 

Step 1: Kick *** all year long and avoid the play in game

Step 2: Vegas odds make you one of the favorites giving you zero excuses for failure

Step 3: Just win the WS already

 

 

That's one way of looking at it. But, I'd disagree in this era...or at least at this particular point in AL history.  2019 isn't going to be anything like 1987. Three great teams in the AL and (at least) one extra round to negotiate in the playoffs. The AL was anything but unpredictable in 2018, and will be similar in 2019. Houston, Yankees, Boston, are not good teams, they are championship-caliber teams that are not all going to fall of the table in 2019.

 

Meanwhile, the Twins are not currently in the universe of these 3 teams. Could the Twins go all-in and steal a central-division crown in 2019? Maybe. I'd just as soon see a plan to REALLY compete, and to do so for an extended period of time with young and controllable talent. I'd love it if that plan gave us a chance to win 90 games in 2019. But if it doesn't, it doesn't.

 

Both of you seem to be saying the same thing so I'm replying to both. 

 

I hope not to be misunderstood... I'm all for loading up the roster with as much quality as you can in the off-season to increase your odds of going all the way through. I am not saying that we should just settle for Jake Cave and pass on Pollock and just try to piranha your way through, all the way to the finish. I've lost count on how many times I've typed... give me 25 guys who can play so hopefully, I'm believable when I say it. Ultimately, I want my Twins to look like the Astros and Dodgers currently look on paper. 

 

But, if you guys are looking at a team in contention in July. A team full of piranha's and it's Jake Cave leading the way... if you are both saying we shouldn't bother trading a prospect to acquire Justin Verlander because the Astros are just so loaded. If you feel there is no point because the roster doesn't compare to what Boston is putting down on paper... therefore let's not sacrifice our future to take a shot when the team you currently have are earning that shot...  We are in 100% disagreement. 

 

The Playoffs are 20 games max. You just got to go 12-8. The Orioles could go 12-8 in their current state at any time and are capable of going 12-8 at any time against the best of the best or the worst of the worst and it just might be Renato Nunez who hits 6 home runs at key moments that leads the way. You never who is going to step up or if the paper tigers on the other side are going to experience the bad timing of stepping down at the absolutely wrong time. 

 

We just got done watching the Brewers take the Dodgers to Game 7 with a rotation of Chacin, Miley and Gio Gonzalez. A rotation that completely shut down the Rockies before doing decently against mighty Dodgers. Was it the Rockies just not hitting as a team at the moment or did Chacin and Miley just kinda find it at the right time? I don't know but it kinda happened to the Dodgers as well and things like this happen every single year. Meanwhile Kershaw and Ryu fronted the Dodgers rotation and finished 3 wins and 5 losses combined while allowing 25 runs in 49 innings. These paper assessments don't mean much in a 20 game sample size. So acquire some additional help if your team has a shot. Energize them the best you can. You never know what player becomes Eovaldi or what player becomes Darvish but you should try. 

 

Never pass on a playoff race because you think you know better. Load up in the off-season... see what happens... If you are contention... load up some more. If you are not... sell off the expiring contracts for more farm options.

 

And even if you don't load up in the off-season and somehow, someway, through voodoo, crazy hops or found light-switches your scrappy team is in contention for a playoff spot... never ever ignore it.  

 

The players will let you know which direction you need to go and if they are telling you by their Wins and Losses to go for it... Join them. 

 

As for this off-season... I see absolutely no reason to look at what we have and look at what Boston, Houston and New York have and then just throw in the towel to focus on 2020 instead. If I was the Orioles... Yeah... I'd sell off and kick that can down the road. The 2019 Twins should enter the season with plenty of pitching depth, players with talent who are cheap, controllable and could collectively find the light switch, with money to spend and minor league talent that can acquire additional talent... plus... what should be another year of a weak AL Central. 

 

Let's go Twins!!!  :)

 

BTW... To avoid any confusion... I'm not saying we should trade Royce Lewis for David Freese to support the team. I always remain hopeful that the front office has some common sense along those lines when it comes to supporting a team. 

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I just got done listening to Chad Allen on Mike Berandino pod caste his discussion on Buxton which I found very interesting and has given me some hope for this group of players the Twins have now. From what I took from Chad Allen's remarks Buxton needs to have playing time to get himself squared with hitting. Reading between the lines this Front Office has overloaded him with to much information and try to micro manage him until he has lost all confidence in his ability. I wonder if that is not going on with Sano too where they just need to play let them figure things out even if the numbers are poor for awhile and they need to have trust with their coaches. Second he talked about was this group of players just tore up minor leagues won everything but they haven't been able to make this work at major league level. The question I have is this front office of geeks overloading these young players until were not getting any performance out them at all. Soon as they go else where we see this dramatic improvement in performance. I read where Flavey and Levine are down in club house a lot after every game I wonder if we got case of micro managing going on here. Maybe this will change with their own manager but my guts tell me this will probably not change. I wonder if this case of these young stud geeks who did this with their other organization for their jobs now can't let the people they hired do their jobs because they are still doing what they had done before. This could be case where they haven't had experience of being managers let people do the jobs they were hired to do maybe not the exact way you would do but capable of getting the job done. If this case this front office is going to go down in flames because having multiple coaches voicing differences through out the organization creates lack of direction and confusion through out the whole organization. A little more speculation is this why they are firing people through out whole organization because people can't do it exactly how they think they would do it. If this case were going to have players, coaches, and training people who either waiting for directives and players overwhelmed with information and not being helped by people hired to do so because they are waiting for upper management for directives. I guess time will tell here but my feeling is this is like when the Twins hired Ray Miller from Baltimore Orioles we had team that wasn't performing and players and staff were never on same page. But getting back to Chad Allen I was impressed with his remarks and I think its worth listening too.  

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As for this off-season... I see absolutely no reason to look at what we have and look at what Boston, Houston and New York have and then just throw in the towel to focus on 2020 instead. If I was the Orioles... Yeah... I'd sell off and kick that can down the road. The 2019 Twins should enter the season with plenty of pitching depth, players with talent who are cheap, controllable and could collectively find the light switch, with money to spend and minor league talent that can acquire additional talent... plus... what should be another year of a weak AL Central. 

 

Let's go Twins!!!  :)

Yes, we 100% disagree on everything above (Twins relative to top of AL)...

 

Except for that part there at the end! :)

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