Article: Twins Fans, Welcome to the Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

What follows is the introduction I wrote for the 2019 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, which you can order here on a name-your-price basis, and receive it right away.

 

This story sets up the Handbook, and the coming offseason at large, which figures to be one of the most interesting in franchise history. We hope you’ll grab your copy of this 70-page ebook and geek out with us over what’s to come.Welcome to the offseason.

 

This is the ninth Offseason Handbook our crew has produced – a tradition that predates even the launch of our website, Twins Daily. When we released the sad-looking first version of this little passion project (see cover below), the Twins had just completed a thrilling 2009 season, their last at the Metrodome.

 

That winter, they signed Joe Mauer – coming off an MVP campaign – to an eight-year, $184 million extension. And in every iteration of the Handbook we’ve churned out since, that contract has been a constant reality, occupying roughly a quarter of the payroll.

 

The objective of these guides is to let you, the reader, put on your GM hat and plot your own course for the offseason (or, predict what the actual front office will do). Now, for the first time, you’re really going to have free rein. Not only is Mauer’s hefty contract off the books; the Twins have almost no firm commitments for 2019 or beyond.

 

You’ve got unprecedented spending flexibility. A deep farm system, chock full of appealing assets and incoming difference-makers. A new manager set to take the reins. And you’ve got an entrenched young core that, while reeling from a series of setbacks, still carries immense promise.

 

In the following pages, you’ll find a comprehensive overview of the offseason landscape laid out through a TwinsCentric lens. Depth charts, free agents of interest, trade scenarios, payroll analysis, arbitration decisions, impact prospects: it’s all ahead.

 

The sky’s the limit. Let your imagination run wild. Can you build a contender for 2019?

 

***

Want to dig into the full 70 pages of in-depth analysis of the offseason that’s about to get underway? Download your copy of the 2019 Offseason Handbook, at any price you see fit.

 

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[Blake]

Maybe we can start with players the Twins should avoid?

I suggested the Twins look at Machado.

 

I completely rescind that suggestion after watching him play in the World Series.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Maybe we can start with players the Twins should avoid?

I suggested the Twins look at Machado.

 

I completely rescind that suggestion after watching him play in the World Series.

This is a good talker.

 

Machado is the one guy who would represent the biggest upgrade for the Twins in my opinion, but it would definitely be difficult to root for him. I think he lost himself a little bit of money with his play and personality in the postseason, but I still think he's going to make plenty enough where we won't have to worry about the Twins signing him.

 

Who would I avoid? Among the guys I could see the Twins pursuing, Dallas Keuchel is the guy who I fear could end up being a poor investment. Where he's at right now reminds me a little bit of Jordan Zimmermann when he signed with Detroit. While the team has money to spend, the Twins still can't afford to make a bad investment like that one.

[Mike Sixel]

Q: Is the handbook being update to reflect the new manager? Will it be updated for the new coaches?

 

An idea....update it as they sign players, and add sections on what might happen next? That is about what you'd do in a blog post.....

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Q: Is the handbook being update to reflect the new manager? Will it be updated for the new coaches?

 

An idea....update it as they sign players, and add sections on what might happen next? That is about what you'd do in a blog post.....

 

Interesting idea, and maybe Nick has some different thoughts... 

 

My thoughts are that the Offseason Handbook is a prep for the offseason. Presents many of the options for the offseason. But rather than update there, we will update with articles here on this site. And hopefully those articles (after signing players, etc) will include some thoughts on what is next. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting idea, and maybe Nick has some different thoughts... 

 

My thoughts are that the Offseason Handbook is a prep for the offseason. Presents many of the options for the offseason. But rather than update there, we will update with articles here on this site. And hopefully those articles (after signing players, etc) will include some thoughts on what is next. 

 

That's probably what I would do also.....as the alternative is a lot of work.....

[USAFChief]

 

This is a good talker.

 

Machado is the one guy who would represent the biggest upgrade for the Twins in my opinion, but it would definitely be difficult to root for him. I think he lost himself a little bit of money with his play and personality in the postseason, but I still think he's going to make plenty enough where we won't have to worry about the Twins signing him.

 

Who would I avoid? Among the guys I could see the Twins pursuing, Dallas Keuchel is the guy who I fear could end up being a poor investment. Where he's at right now reminds me a little bit of Jordan Zimmermann when he signed with Detroit. While the team has money to spend, the Twins still can't afford to make a bad investment like that one.

Concur, and concur.

[Puckett34]

Machado is tempting.  Heck of a talent.   Don't really like him as a person.   And think the Twins would be wise to spend his $30+ million per year on 2-4 different players.  

 

Wonder if Machado is kinda like a Pierzynski type.  Where you like him when he's on your team, but loathe him when he's not.    Oriole fans may have more of a insight on that.

[Danchat]

I wonder if the Twins could trade for Sonny Gray on the cheap and use him as a reliever, potentially a closer, maybe? I think that could be a sneaky good move.

 

Don’t want Machado. We aren’t one player away from contention and I doubt he wants to play in Minnesota.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wonder if the Twins could trade for Sonny Gray on the cheap and use him as a reliever, potentially a closer, maybe? I think that could be a sneaky good move.

Don’t want Machado. We aren’t one player away from contention and I doubt he wants to play in Minnesota.

 

You want Gray, who is only signed for a year or two, but not Machado, who would be signed for 5-8 years? I'm not sure I understand that logic. Signing Machado isn't about just next year, or even 2020.....

 

that said, I don't want a dirty player on this roster, so no to Manny.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

 And think the Twins would be wise to spend his $30+ million per year on 2-4 different players.  

 

 

 No, 100%. Buy a stud, or don't buy at all. Doing what you suggest here is how you end up with Logan Morrison's, or Ricky Nolascos. I'd rather they just fill in with players from their minor leagues than shop in the bargain bin, then aim higher when they identify someone studly they want. Does it have to be this year? No, and it doesn't have to be Machado. But the C level free agent should be a thing of the past for this team unless it is filling a hole that there is no one in their system able to do so.

[Puckett34]

 

 No, 100%. Buy a stud, or don't buy at all. Doing what you suggest here is how you end up with Logan Morrison's, or Ricky Nolascos. I'd rather they just fill in with players from their minor leagues than shop in the bargain bin, then aim higher when they identify someone studly they want. Does it have to be this year? No, and it doesn't have to be Machado. But the C level free agent should be a thing of the past for this team unless it is filling a hole that there is no one in their system able to do so.

I'm not saying you're wrong. What I was trying to say was spend the money on someone(s) not named Machado. I didn't convey that well.

[Major League Ready]

 

 No, 100%. Buy a stud, or don't buy at all. Doing what you suggest here is how you end up with Logan Morrison's, or Ricky Nolascos. I'd rather they just fill in with players from their minor leagues than shop in the bargain bin, then aim higher when they identify someone studly they want. Does it have to be this year? No, and it doesn't have to be Machado. But the C level free agent should be a thing of the past for this team unless it is filling a hole that there is no one in their system able to do so.

 

I don't think you have looked at the production of the "studs" in an objective way. Some of the big name / big spend guys have worked out great. More have been mediocre to downright horrible. The best case scenario with the big dollar guys is you get what you pay for. Over achievement or value is rarely obtained. It does not matter as much if you have the Twins revenue + another $150M to play with but it's a killer for a mid-market team if players with big contracts don't deliver.  There are very few that deliver good value over the course of the entire contract. Let's look at some of the studs from the past couple years.

 

Darvish – 6yrs / $126M – WAR of 0
Arietta – 3 yrs / $75M WAR of 2.0
Cobb – 4yrs / $57M – WAR of 1.0
Chapman 5yrs / $86M – Combined WAR of 3.5 for 2017-18.
Jansen / 5yrs / $80M – Combined WAR of 4 for 2017-18 (.4 for 2018)
Eric Hosmer 8yrs/ $144 – 2018 WAR of -.1
Cespedes – 4yrs / $110M – 2017 WAR of 2.1 2018 – 0 WAR (injured)
Desmond – 5 yrs / $70M – Combined WAR of -1.5 for 2017-18
Fowler – 5yrs / $82M – Combined WAR of 1.3 for 2017-18
Let’s not forget the disastrous contracts of Jason Heyward & Chris Davis.

 

Guys like these can really help a team while keeping enough payroll open to keep our core

 

Mikolas – 2yrs / $15.5 - WAR of 4.3

Hill – 4yrs / $48M – Combined WAR of 4.5 for 2017-18
Morton – 2yrs / $14M – WAR of 6.3 over the 2 years (2017-18)
Lowrie – 3yrs / $23M - Combined WAR of 8.5 for 2017-18

[Battle ur tail off]

You might be right, I have just had enough of the Lance Lynn types, or Logan Morrison's. etc. Just feel as if these spots could be filled from within the organization. At best these types of signings turn into average or slightly below average players for us most times.

 

Maybe you don't have to buy big name free agents. Maybe trading for the type of studs needed and then extending them would be the way to go?

 

I just am of the belief that improving the talent level and getting ballplayers with high ceilings is in order. Is there some risk in that? For sure. But I just don't feel the mid level range type of players are going to get us anywhere.