Non-Twins Off-season news, tidbits and transactions

[USAFChief]

Why wouldn't Gonsalves be a reasonable comp for Sheffield? Both roughly MLB ready, top 100 prospects but not top, top 100. Young and cheap, and if you squint you can see a path to success, but with enough warts to make it equally as likely they never amount to anything but rotation filler.

 

And I'd trade Gonsalves plus filler for 2 yrs of Paxton every day, twice on Sunday.

 

Honestly, if this kind of trade is beyond the Twins ability to make, or too scary, I fear we are no better off then we were under Ryan, which is so risk averse as to be virtually paralyzed.

 

I admit to being the total opposite to what might be termed a "prospect hound." I think prospects are the most overrated thing in baseball.

 

But in this case, I don't understand the opposition. What are we trying to accomplish here?

[Vanimal46]

The MLB team is an absolute mess. The only league average offensive players they have are Rosario and Garver. They only have two players who can work a count and one of them is Robbie Grossman. The entire infield is a question mark; are any of their starting 2020 infielders even on their roster at the moment? They have no right handed bats and the bullpen is quite possibly the worst in the league.

 

Just a guess, not my preference, but this team is probably closer to trading Kyle Gibson than trading for James Paxton.

 

I was having different thoughts about this stuff at the end of the season, but after looking at the 40 man and realizing I want less than half of those players anymore, I've kind of had to change my view. I'd prefer shrewd trades and free agent signings, but man, they're going to have to hit on at minimum a half dozen on them to fix this disaster of a roster.

One way to fix an absolute mess is to chip away one item at a time. In your example with the Padres, they have a consensus top 2 farm system. Guess what? They have Hosmer and Myers locked in when they start calling up their young studs. They didn't wait for all of the stars to align before signing good players.

[Steve Lein]

 

And that's assuming the Mariners would have accepted quantity over quality. Seems to me when the Twins are talking about trading a vet, we want the best possible prospects, not the most prospects.

 

Yes. That is exactly what my last paragraph is stating.

[nicksaviking]

 

Why wouldn't Gonsalves be a reasonable comp for Sheffield? Both roughly MLB ready, top 100 prospects but not top, top 100. Young and cheap, and if you squint you can see a path to success, but with enough warts to make it equally as likely they never amount to anything but rotation filler.

 

And I'd trade Gonsalves plus filler for 2 yrs of Paxton every day, twice on Sunday.

 

Honestly, if this kind of trade is beyond the Twins ability to make, or too scary, I fear we are no better off then we were under Ryan, which is so risk averse as to be virtually paralyzed.

 

I admit to being the total opposite to what might be termed a "prospect hound." I think prospects are the most overrated thing in baseball.

 

But in this case, I don't understand the opposition. What are we trying to accomplish here?

 

I'd trade Gonsalves for much, much less than Paxton, I've never been a believer in him. But Sheffield throws 95 MPH, misses bats and is a top 40-ish prospect and likely moving higher this offseason while Gonsalves is a soft-tossing junkballer who only makes about 1/3 of the top 100 lists and will probably be off all of them after he looked lost and without control in his debut.

[nicksaviking]

 

One way to fix an absolute mess is to chip away one item at a time. In your example with the Padres, they have a consensus top 2 farm system. Guess what? They have Hosmer and Myers locked in when they start calling up their young studs. They didn't wait for all of the stars to align before signing good players.

 

They would undoubtedly ship off Hosmer and Myers if anyone even hinted at taking those terrible contracts off of their books. Hosmer was a free agent, Myers they traded for four years ago when the team was awful and the team has been awful the whole time since. They might be less awful had they not traded Trea Turner for Wil Myers.

[Vanimal46]

Why wouldn't Gonsalves be a reasonable comp for Sheffield? Both roughly MLB ready, top 100 prospects but not top, top 100. Young and cheap, and if you squint you can see a path to success, but with enough warts to make it equally as likely they never amount to anything but rotation filler.

 

And I'd trade Gonsalves plus filler for 2 yrs of Paxton every day, twice on Sunday.

 

Honestly, if this kind of trade is beyond the Twins ability to make, or too scary, I fear we are no better off then we were under Ryan, which is so risk averse as to be virtually paralyzed.

 

I admit to being the total opposite to what might be termed a "prospect hound." I think prospects are the most overrated thing in baseball.

 

But in this case, I don't understand the opposition. What are we trying to accomplish here?

Prospects are without a doubt the most overvalued commodity in baseball. We talk about taking advantage of market inefficiencies, and I can't think of a bigger inefficiency in the game than hoarding prospects.

 

The Twins could have filled out a nice MLB squad by now if they traded 'valuable' prospects for established MLB talent. Instead there's an irrational need to keep all of these guys and watch over 50% of them fail.

[Vanimal46]

They would undoubtedly ship off Hosmer and Myers if anyone even hinted at taking those terrible contracts off of their books. Hosmer was a free agent, Myers they traded for four years ago when the team was awful and the team has been awful the whole time since.

You don't know that. What if they're competitive next year once they start calling up Tatis Jr., Gore, etc? Now they have 2 quality MLB hitters already on roster and locked up to compliment the rookies.

[Steve Lein]

 

Why wouldn't Gonsalves be a reasonable comp for Sheffield? Both roughly MLB ready, top 100 prospects but not top, top 100. Young and cheap, and if you squint you can see a path to success, but with enough warts to make it equally as likely they never amount to anything but rotation filler.

 

And I'd trade Gonsalves plus filler for 2 yrs of Paxton every day, twice on Sunday.

 

Honestly, if this kind of trade is beyond the Twins ability to make, or too scary, I fear we are no better off then we were under Ryan, which is so risk averse as to be virtually paralyzed.

 

I admit to being the total opposite to what might be termed a "prospect hound." I think prospects are the most overrated thing in baseball.

 

But in this case, I don't understand the opposition. What are we trying to accomplish here?

 

Sheffield is a way better prospect than Gonsalves at this point. Sheffield is Top 50 easy, Gonsalves is probably more like top 150.

 

I know when you look at stats you can see similar results, but the difference is in stuff and Sheffield is 2 years younger.

 

Sheffield could have three plus pitches when it's all said and done, and they're strikeout repertoire pitches (fastball, slider, changeup). Sheffield's fastball sits where Gonsalves can touch velocity wise. Gonsalves best pitch is his changeup, and that won't rack up K's on it's own in the majors. Both have control and command issues but I'd take the younger guy with bigger stuff every day and twice on Sundays in a trade over the other one in this scenario.

 

I agree with your overall point on timidness to make such a trade. I would trade the assets the Twins have that I think could match this (though Mariners would still opt for the package with the best one overall in their eyes), but not on the idea that Gonsalves would be a roughly equal starting point.

[cmoss84]

I'm going to half to agree with Nick on most of this. 

1) the price to pay to get (an injury prone) Paxson was too high

2) Sheffield way better prospect than Gonsalves (and probably even Graterol)

3) The Padres made a huge mistake in trading away Turner (who was MLB ready when they traded him)

 

That being said, I agree with most of the rest of you that we do need to start making some trades and not worrying about holding onto our precious prospects.

 

I've been going on forever how I would give up Gordon/Gonsalves/Romero/Kepler for Realmuto and would give up anything to get Syndergaard.

 

Just didn't feel the heartbreak or frustration most of you did by not getting Paxson. 

[Han Joelo]

I'd lay even odds that this trade ends up as "meh" as the last big Mariners/Yankees trade, the last key player still standing from that one is currently a Twin.  Good for the Mariners trying to sell high on Paxton--he's one good season away from being the embodiment of TINSTAAP, and 30 years old.   Good for the Yankees selling high on Sheffield, he is a TINSTAAP; twice traded no less.  The Yankees wouldn't trade him if he was about to go all Walker Buehler, and neither would the Indians.

[Vanimal46]

I'm going to half to agree with Nick on most of this.

1) the price to pay to get (an injury prone) Paxson was too high

2) Sheffield way better prospect than Gonsalves (and probably even Graterol)

3) The Padres made a huge mistake in trading away Turner (who was MLB ready when they traded him)

 

That being said, I agree with most of the rest of you that we do need to start making some trades and not worrying about holding onto our precious prospects.

 

I've been going on forever how I would give up Gordon/Gonsalves/Romero/Kepler for Realmuto and would give up anything to get Syndergaard.

 

Just didn't feel the heartbreak or frustration most of you did by not getting Paxson.

Good post. And just to be clear, for me, I'm not heartbroken or frustrated the Twins didn't trade specifically for Paxton. I'm frustrated that there are excuses (mostly needing to keep our own prospects) every time a notable player is put on the trade block. All I want is one trade to show that the Twins are making an effort to field a quality MLB team. I couldn't care less about Fort Myers' record...

[USAFChief]

 

I'd trade Gonsalves for much, much less than Paxton, I've never been a believer in him. But Sheffield throws 95 MPH, misses bats and is a top 40-ish prospect and likely moving higher this offseason while Gonsalves is a soft-tossing junkballer who only makes about 1/3 of the top 100 lists and will probably be off all of them after he looked lost and without control in his debut.

Sheffield ranged from 41-57 on 2018 lists. Gonsalves in the 90s. Gonsalves misses bats, too: 8.6 K/9 in AAA, over 9 for his MiLB career.

 

You'd have to up the level of the filler. 

 

Neither Sheffield nor Gonsalves is much to worry about losing. That's the point. For that matter, if Seattle wanted Romero, I pull the trigger before they can hang up the phone.

 

Honestly, this is a perfect example of the type of trade the Twins should be constantly looking to make, IMO. When a team, for some reason, wants to rid itself of talent (Yelich, Realmuto, Paxton, etc etc etc), help them. You'll miss sometimes, but almost certainly less then you'll miss on the minor leaguers you give up.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sheffield ranged from 41-57 on 2018 lists. Gonsalves in the 90s. Gonsalves misses bats, too: 8.6 K/9 in AAA, over 9 for his MiLB career.

 

You'd have to up the level of the filler. 

 

Neither Sheffield nor Gonsalves is much to worry about losing. That's the point. For that matter, if Seattle wanted Romero, I pull the trigger before they can hang up the phone.

 

Honestly, this is a perfect example of the type of trade the Twins should be constantly looking to make, IMO. When a team, for some reason, wants to rid itself of talent (Yelich, Realmuto, Paxton, etc etc etc), help them. You'll miss sometimes, but almost certainly less then you'll miss on the minor leaguers you give up.

 

I'm not against trading any of the prospects; I am however pretty skeptical that a guy with two years left on his contract will be around to make a difference when the team needs him to make a difference. And he just can't stay healthy.

 

I'm also not sure about the leveling up factor with prospects. When we have discussions about the Twins trading vets, we almost all want the best prospect available, not the most prospects. I think if people around the game were polled, Sheffield would be higher than anything the Twins could offer individually outside of Lewis and Kirilloff. I'd guess a Gonsalves led deal for Paxton would get universal acclaim on this site, which probably means it's increadibly lopsided in the Twins favor.

[nicksaviking]

 

Good post. And just to be clear, for me, I'm not heartbroken or frustrated the Twins didn't trade specifically for Paxton. I'm frustrated that there are excuses (mostly needing to keep our own prospects) every time a notable player is put on the trade block. All I want is one trade to show that the Twins are making an effort to field a quality MLB team. I couldn't care less about Fort Myers' record...

 

I understand this completely. However, the feelings around here would probably be different if the Twins had actually been developing prospects lately. Frankly they've been just awful at it for well over a decade. I think prospects being over-valued is a symptom of our environment, other teams show that this isn't true at all; Boston, Houston, New York and Cleveland are crushing it with their prospects lately. They only made big trades after their development cycle started paying off.

[Mike Sixel]

The fact that they had highly rated prospects that didn't work out is kind of Chief's point.... I'd rather have the Brewers approach. I guess some knew Sano and Buxton would provide no value, but then why not trade them?

 

Otoh, if you thought they'd be good last year, they should have added long term talent, not a series of bad one year deals. Aim low, achieve low.

[Mike Sixel]

In any event, I look forward to this thread being about moves made, and maybe there being one about a real Twins signing, not bargain, one year, who cares, moves....

[Vanimal46]

I understand this completely. However, the feelings around here would probably be different if the Twins had actually been developing prospects lately. Frankly they've been just awful at it for well over a decade. I think prospects being over-valued is a symptom of our environment, other teams show that this isn't true at all; Boston, Houston, New York and Cleveland are crushing it with their prospects lately. They only made big trades after their development cycle started paying off.

We're entering year 3 of Falvine and there hasn't been a high number of development successes either.

 

What are they supposed to do? Wait 2-3 more years to see if the new wave contributes something at the MLB level before making a move? Why keep relying on prospects to develop when they have an extended track record of not being good at it?

[Vanimal46]

 

What I'll remember most about Beltre... He did not like to be touched on his head.

[nicksaviking]

 

We're entering year 3 of Falvine and there hasn't been a high number of development successes either.

What are they supposed to do? Wait 2-3 more years to see if the new wave contributes something at the MLB level before making a move? Why keep relying on prospects to develop when they have an extended track record of not being good at it?

 

I'd say because they were very poor at drafting and developing for a long time and it takes longer than 2 years to fix that.

 

Sorry I've been a buzzkill about trades, I was gung ho to move prospects for vets at the end of the season but became less so watching the young studs of the AL's big four teams carry their clubs. Then who they hired as manager and coaches really indicated that this team plans on fixing this ship from the inside out, not the outside in. The rebound will certainly be quicker if they can remedy the players who haven't lived up to the hype and not just develop their own guys, so here's hoping to that.

[Vanimal46]

I'd say because they were very poor at drafting and developing for a long time and it takes longer than 2 years to fix that.

 

Sorry I've been a buzzkill about trades, I was gung ho to move prospects for vets at the end of the season but became less so watching the young studs of the AL's big four teams carry their clubs. Then who they hired as manager and coaches really indicated that this team plans on fixing this ship from the inside out, not the outside in. The rebound will certainly be quicker if they can remedy the players who haven't lived up to the hype and not just develop their own guys, so here's hoping to that.

I've got to say you're all over the map today Nick... In your previous posts you said the MLB roster is a mess. Now this post you want to keep the mess together and see if it can be better without making a trade? Im... Lost in this conversation.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd say because they were very poor at drafting and developing for a long time and it takes longer than 2 years to fix that.

 

Sorry I've been a buzzkill about trades, I was gung ho to move prospects for vets at the end of the season but became less so watching the young studs of the AL's big four teams carry their clubs. Then who they hired as manager and coaches really indicated that this team plans on fixing this ship from the inside out, not the outside in. The rebound will certainly be quicker if they can remedy the players who haven't lived up to the hype and not just develop their own guys, so here's hoping to that.

 

If they add no one this off season, it is another year of Buxton and Sano down the drain. I'll say this, if they aren't going to add, they should 100% trade Gibson. And Reed. And Castro. And cut Grossman.

[nicksaviking]

 

What I'll remember most about Beltre... He did not like to be touched on his head.

 

Him being on the same first ballot as Mauer sure isn't going to help the optics on Mauer.

 

Great player, I always wondered what happened with those Seattle years, they all look like outliers. Was it the ballpark? It wasn't at all hitter friendly when it first opened.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I've got to say you're all over the map today Nick... In your previous posts you said the MLB roster is a mess. Now this post you want to keep the mess together and see if it can be better without making a trade? Im... Lost in this conversation.

 

It is a mess, I want them to cut half of the roster, salvage what they can. I don't think they're close though unless they can fix what's left. They need to develop their Betts and Bogaerts, Lindor and Rameriz, Correa and Bregman. It was supposed to be Buxton and Sano. If that's somehow still possible great, if it's not, it better be Lewis and Kirilloff, if it's not them either we as fans will just continue to be screwed over. They have to figure out how to create their own star players.

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

 

Because the last time they traded prospects for an established MLB player was what... Kielty for Shannon Stewart in 2003?

I'm not asking for the Twins to drain the farm for every player on the trade block. I want one trade... Just one trade.

Well, how about Ramos for Capps: 2010    

[Vanimal46]

It is a mess, I want them to cut half of the roster, salvage what they can. I don't think they're close though unless they can fix what's left. They need to develop their Betts and Bogaerts, Lindor and Rameriz, Correa and Bregman. It was supposed to be Buxton and Sano. If that's somehow still possible great, if it's not, it better be Lewis and Kirilloff, if it's not them either we as fans will just continue to be screwed over. They have to figure out how to create their own star players.

There's nothing stopping them from trying to create their own stars and field a quality MLB team. The stars you mentioned weren't all #1 overall picks. Their farm is littered with 20-30 45 FV players. Use some of those darts to acquire MLB players that will generate interest in the team and show us that they care about winning.

[nicksaviking]

 

There's nothing stopping them from trying to create their own stars and field a quality MLB team. The stars you mentioned weren't all #1 overall picks. Their farm is littered with 20-30 45 FV players. Use some of those darts to acquire MLB players that will generate interest in the team and show us that they care about winning.

 

I'd like to do that for other teams' good young players, I don't care how the Twins get their sustainable core. I guess I don't see Paxton being a building block type of player. He might make for a nice free agent target in two years should the Twins have those building block players though.

[Monkeypaws]

Levine dropped the key word in the Rundown thread - sustainability. 

 

Dropping top prospects for established stars is fine when you:

 

a. have a good team of high-end players

b. draft, develop, and trade well

 

None of those is the Twins. Until they develop some stars on this team, why bother? There is no surplus of anything sitting idly by while these deals fly elsewhere. The MLB roster needs help everywhere, and the system ain't exactly full of folks knocking down the door, at least right now.

 

The Twins don't have enough at the major league level to deal away top prospects, especially for injury prone guys. Unsustainable until they develop better, and have a more star-quality MLB roster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

For years we were told mid market teams can't sustain long term success, because they get later picks and the team becomes too expensive. Now a new FO comes in, and claims the 100% opposite is true.....and people buy it as an excuse to not get better at the MLB level. 

[Vanimal46]

Levine dropped the key word in the Rundown thread - sustainability.

 

Dropping top prospects for established stars is fine when you:

 

a. have a good team of high-end players

b. draft, develop, and trade well

 

None of those is the Twins. Until they develop some stars on this team, why bother? There is no surplus of anything sitting idly by while these deals fly elsewhere. The MLB roster needs help everywhere, and the system ain't exactly full of folks knocking down the door, at least right now.

 

The Twins don't have enough at the major league level to deal away top prospects, especially for injury prone guys. Unsustainable until they develop better, and have a more star-quality MLB roster.

That's their prerogative to do so I guess. They may not be around to see the 'sustainability' if the MLB team continues to lose. Not to mention they're taking the risk that casual fans will still be around and care whenever they do have a core of young players they believe in.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure Pax is the hill I want to die on about the FO being aggressive.  I get why people would be gun-shy about him.  

 

But this team is building a good farm system, within the next calendar year (and much sooner than later would be my preference) - it's time to go out and add some serious talent to this team.

 

I hope they're creative and aggressive, but I can understand not being in on this particular sweepstakes.