Non-Twins Off-season news, tidbits and transactions

[Jim Hahn]

They are forty million under last year, maybe fifty. How many relief pitchers do you think they will sign? But I agree, they should sign some. And yes, there is risk, just as there is risk in doing nothing.

I don't know that they are being allowed to spend to last year's level. Even if they can, I wouldn't be surprised if they keep something in the kitty. If they get off to a decent start, they might want to see where the holes are and patch them as they go. There are a lot of young players on this team with more getting closer to the majors. I expect that once they see if the pieces fit, they might want some money to take on salary during the season.

[SomeGuy]

 

On paper, this looks like a bad deal for the Dodgers... they're sending 3 useful players to the Reds for salary relief and two prospects? I get they want to slash their payroll to try and land Harper/Machado, but still... and now that I've looked up the prospects, it's even worse because they're 19 and 20 years old and don't have very impressive stats/prospect levels from what I can tell. 

I think the trade is weird from the Reds point of view.  They are better yes but how much better?  They might have passed Pittsburgh but they are still 4th or 5th in the NLC in my opinion.  Its a long way to the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals.  If they don't go on some magical run this year, all 3 will be free agents next year.  They just gave away 2 top 30 prospects and saved the Dodgers a few bucks.

 

I wouldn't say the Dodger's necessarily won the trade, it just makes a little more sense from their perspective especially if it alludes to another move.  I don't think the Reds are now 25 wins better than their last season squad and its kind of contend 2019 or bust since all 3 will be Free Agents.  As a fallback 2 of the 3 players could get a nice return at the trade deadline if they are out so maybe they turn 2 prospects into like 4 or 5 prospects.

[TheLeviathan]

From the Reds side...you get out of Bailey's deal after this year, you get Puig longer term, and you just had to give up prospects.

 

And if Wood or Kemp has July value you may recoup that.

 

A bit risky, but lots of upside.

[SomeGuy]

 

From the Reds side...you get out of Bailey's deal after this year, you get Puig longer term, and you just had to give up prospects.

And if Wood or Kemp has July value you may recoup that.

A bit risky, but lots of upside.

Puig is a Free Agent after 2019 like Wood and Kemp.  Plus they traded for Tanner Roark who is also a free agent after this upcoming season.  After 2019 they are right where they were a month ago, minus the prospects.  One of their better other players is also gone after 2019, Scooter Gennett.

 

It seems crazy for a 67 win team to go all in for just one single season like this.  They are hoping to suddenly add 25-30 wins to last years total.  Then what? back to the rebuild?  Take on 5 more rental players and make another 1 year push?

 

Puig and maybe Wood can get a qualifying offer but I think there is a good possibility that they are trying to sell these players at the deadline.

 

Fangraphs has them projected for 79 wins next season.  They still have work to do on their one year stand.

[TheLeviathan]

I disagree with characterizing that move as all-in. It was a calculated gamble on upside.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Puig is a Free Agent after 2019 like Wood and Kemp.  Plus they traded for Tanner Roark who is also a free agent after this upcoming season.  After 2019 they are right where they were a month ago, minus the prospects.  One of their better other players is also gone after 2019, Scooter Gennett.

 

It seems crazy for a 67 win team to go all in for just one single season like this.  They are hoping to suddenly add 25-30 wins to last years total.  Then what? back to the rebuild?  Take on 5 more rental players and make another 1 year push?

 

Puig and maybe Wood can get a qualifying offer but I think there is a good possibility that they are trying to sell these players at the deadline.

 

Fangraphs has them projected for 79 wins next season.  They still have work to do on their one year stand.

They acquired a bunch of tradeable assets who may have more value at the trade deadline, given that there will be less money owed on their contracts, or even the Reds' willingness to eat the contracts.  

 

I imagine they could get better prospects than the ones they gave up.

[SomeGuy]

 

They acquired a bunch of tradeable assets who may have more value at the trade deadline, given that there will be less money owed on their contracts, or even the Reds' willingness to eat the contracts.  

 

I imagine they could get better prospects than the ones they gave up.

They already gave up 3 of their top 30 prospects, two of which are 97MPH pitchers.  Puig and Wood are the 2 big trade pieces, what if Puig gets injured like he has been known to do or Wood underwhelms in a hitter friendly park?   In a best case scenario they recoup more than they gave up but that is not a given.

 

Or they find themselves 5 games back of the 2nd wildcard and selling would be unpopular with fans that were told they are in win-now mode.

[Mike Sixel]

They already gave up 3 of their top 30 prospects, two of which are 97MPH pitchers. Puig and Wood are the 2 big trade pieces, what if Puig gets injured like he has been known to do or Wood underwhelms in a hitter friendly park? In a best case scenario they recoup more than they gave up but that is not a given.

 

Or they find themselves 5 games back of the 2nd wildcard and selling would be unpopular with fans that were told they are in win-now mode.

That's the risk they took. I don't know it will work, but they are trying to win. Good luck to them.

[Vanimal46]

They already gave up 3 of their top 30 prospects, two of which are 97MPH pitchers. Puig and Wood are the 2 big trade pieces, what if Puig gets injured like he has been known to do or Wood underwhelms in a hitter friendly park? In a best case scenario they recoup more than they gave up but that is not a given.

 

Or they find themselves 5 games back of the 2nd wildcard and selling would be unpopular with fans that were told they are in win-now mode.

What if the two 97 MPH prospects blow out their arms and never reach the majors?

 

The Reds got out of a really bad contract (Bailey), got a useful player in Kemp, and 2 upside MLB players. If it fails to work out, they can acquire more players that throw hard at the deadline.

[James]

 

What if the two 97 MPH prospects blow out their arms and never reach the majors?

The Reds got out of a really bad contract (Bailey), got a useful player in Kemp, and 2 upside MLB players. If it fails to work out, they can acquire more players that throw hard at the deadline.

The Reds know about more about those prospects than the Dodgers do.  They can't have liked them too much if they were willing to give them up. 

 

You never know with prospects.  

[TheLeviathan]

That's the risk they took. I don't know it will work, but they are trying to win. Good luck to them.

I don't even think this is a gamble on winning. It's a gamble on flipping prospects and a deadweight contract for known quantities and which adds more long-term value.

 

Come July this may look like a heist.

[old nurse]

 

I don't even think this is a gamble on winning. It's a gamble on flipping prospects and a deadweight contract for known quantities and which adds more long-term value.

Come July this may look like a heist.

A team that is thinking this is there shot will give the Reds a prospect that is more than what they gave up  Then there is the fact that this is the Reds, who turned Cueto and Chapman for less than replacement level players.

[USAFChief]

 

They already gave up 3 of their top 30 prospects, two of which are 97MPH pitchers.  Puig and Wood are the 2 big trade pieces, what if Puig gets injured like he has been known to do or Wood underwhelms in a hitter friendly park?   In a best case scenario they recoup more than they gave up but that is not a given.

 

Or they find themselves 5 games back of the 2nd wildcard and selling would be unpopular with fans that were told they are in win-now mode.

In the Dodger trade, the Reds only gave up two prospects...only one of which is a pitcher.

 

The two traded minor leaguers were Jeter Downs (a middle infielder) and Josiah Gray (a pitcher).

 

They are decent prospects (top 10 and top 20 respectively in the Reds' system), but nothing particularly special. Gray has only a half year of rookie ball under his belt, and Downs hasn't progressed past low A ball.

 

[SomeGuy]

 

In the Dodger trade, the Reds only gave up two prospects...only one of which is a pitcher.

 

The two traded minor leaguers were Jeter Downs (a middle infielder) and Josiah Gray (a pitcher).

 

They are decent prospects (top 10 and top 20 respectively in the Reds' system), but nothing particularly special. Gray has only a half year of rookie ball under his belt, and Downs hasn't progressed past low A ball.

The 3rd top 30 prospect was Tanner Rainey from the Tanner Roark trade who is also a 1 year rental for the 67 win team.

 

It just seems like a team that spent the better part of the last decade rebuilding would be better off adding free agents on 3-5 year deals instead of buying 1 year rentals.  They have a good young core to build around, they could have a nice window coming up but they are choosing to burn prospects on 1 year contracts.

[Vanimal46]

It just seems like a team that spent the better part of the last decade rebuilding would be better off adding free agents on 3-5 year deals instead of buying 1 year rentals. They have a good young core to build around, they could have a nice window coming up but they are choosing to burn prospects on 1 year contracts.

This sounds similar to another team we all follow... Alas, they're also just signing players to 1 year deals.

[USAFChief]

 

The 3rd top 30 prospect was Tanner Rainey from the Tanner Roark trade who is also a 1 year rental for the 67 win team.

 

It just seems like a team that spent the better part of the last decade rebuilding would be better off adding free agents on 3-5 year deals instead of buying 1 year rentals.  They have a good young core to build around, they could have a nice window coming up but they are choosing to burn prospects on 1 year contracts.

 

Neither of the two prospects sent to the Dodgers are very likely to have much MLB impact in the next few years, if ever.

 

They didn't impact the "nice window coming up" at all, other than perhaps help it for one season.

 

 

[old nurse]

 

The 3rd top 30 prospect was Tanner Rainey from the Tanner Roark trade who is also a 1 year rental for the 67 win team.

 

It just seems like a team that spent the better part of the last decade rebuilding would be better off adding free agents on 3-5 year deals instead of buying 1 year rentals.  They have a good young core to build around, they could have a nice window coming up but they are choosing to burn prospects on 1 year contracts.

The time to trade prospects is while somebody else sees value in them.  The 10 or so WAR they gained will be more than the prospects could or will produce

[SomeGuy]

 

The time to trade prospects is while somebody else sees value in them.  The 10 or so WAR they gained will be more than the prospects could or will produce

You're dead wrong on 10 WAR being more than 3 legitimate prospects ever producing.  Add to that the fact that they are still a sub .500 team, what will that 10 WAR actually have been worth when they hit free agency after another losing season?

 

 

Steamer projects Puig, Kemp, Wood, and Roark to be worth a combined 6.6 WAR in 2019 by the way.

[SomeGuy]

 

The Reds know about more about those prospects than the Dodgers do.  They can't have liked them too much if they were willing to give them up. 

 

You never know with prospects.  

I would probably trust the Dodgers scouting abilities more than the Reds, look at how many quality prospects the Dodgers have acquired and developed over the years.  Always seems to be a top payroll and a top farm system in LA.

[biggentleben]

 

This could be a bad deal for the Dodgers if they do not sign either Machaho or Harper. Both Puig and Wood are very useful players.  

 

Not what the deal was about. They're clearing space for a different player...one from the AL Central.

[Han Joelo]

 

Not what the deal was about. They're clearing space for a different player...one from the AL Central.

Kluber?

[biggentleben]

 

On paper, this looks like a bad deal for the Dodgers... they're sending 3 useful players to the Reds for salary relief and two prospects? I get they want to slash their payroll to try and land Harper/Machado, but still... and now that I've looked up the prospects, it's even worse because they're 19 and 20 years old and don't have very impressive stats/prospect levels from what I can tell. 

 

Downs and Gray are very solid prospects, Gray especially so. Gray's the type of guy who 3-4 years from now we will look back and shake our heads at the "Dodgers got another one"

[biggentleben]

 

A team that is thinking this is there shot will give the Reds a prospect that is more than what they gave up  Then there is the fact that this is the Reds, who turned Cueto and Chapman for less than replacement level players.

 

That'd be akin to asserting the Twins would make a certain deal based on the Delmon Young deal.

[biggentleben]

 

Kluber?

 

That's the word on the street, so to speak. Problem is that they still don't have enough room for him alone without moving a bit more cash or having the Indians eat a touch of salary, which would likely mean some heavy prospect return to the Indians, who reportedly were BIG fans of Downs, so he may not finish the offseason in the Dodgers org.

[old nurse]

 

You're dead wrong on 10 WAR being more than 3 legitimate prospects ever producing.  Add to that the fact that they are still a sub .500 team, what will that 10 WAR actually have been worth when they hit free agency after another losing season?

 

 

Steamer projects Puig, Kemp, Wood, and Roark to be worth a combined 6.6 WAR in 2019 by the way.

if steamer is accurate, 6.9 is still more war than you will get out of  middle relievers and 40-50 fv prospects.  you forgot to include Kyle Farmer in what was obtained for a group of non elite prospects.

[old nurse]

 

 

That'd be akin to asserting the Twins would make a certain deal based on the Delmon Young deal.

Walt Jockety was the GM and is now executive adviser with people that were developed by him running the team. Bill Smith and Terry Ryan are long gone

[Vanimal46]

[Mike Sixel]

Philly sitting on it's giant pile of money.....

[Vanimal46]

 

Hmm, does he want more years?

[nicksaviking]

Philly sitting on it's giant pile of money.....

I think Philly is finding out that it’s not as desirable as it thinks.