Article: Offseason Primer: Who Needs a First Baseman Anyways?

[yarnivek1972]

So, what is important for a first baseman...a BIG BAT (homers) or a great glove.

 

They do have a need to hit, either for an above average average, or be a slugger of sorts.

 

But what do you really need? First, you have to have a good idea of who is on second and what is at shortstop. What kind of glove do you need (and stretching power) to field plays from those positions at the bag...some of the time. Also, urability for the same reasons is a plus. For that reason alone, a first baseman needs to hold down the bag on a more than regular basis. Plus, so pitchers know how the guy will field the occasional pickoff throw, too.

 

The Twins have: No one. Tyler Austin CAN play first, he's a good temporary fix. The Twins need to roster him in 2019. He can also DH and play some outfield. So look for him to make the team. Still not sure if he can hold down the position for the long haul.

 

Same with Miguel Sano. The guy IS comfortable at third base, moving to first puts you in the game a lot more. Does he have it to do that, or will he be best served being a designated hitter where he can spend ALL his time on working on hitting and studying the pitchers.

 

I ahd a thought of Max Kepler being the first baseman of the future. But at what point does a guy need time in training. He hits enough homers, his average is below average. But he has the make to be Dougie Baseball, which is fine unless you have a Justin Morneau in the wings.

 

Is Brent Rooker that guy, or better served as a corner outfielder in place of Kepler out there. Rooker is the question.

 

All of the above guys should be Minnesota Twins players in 2019. Probably all back in the fold the following season, too. So, barring a terrible terrible downslide (again) by Sano, Tyler AUstin being the Return of Kevin Maas or Chris Parmelee, and Max Kepler just being okay...we patch things for 2019 and look to see what Lewin Diaz and Luke Raley can offer to the mox.

 

But then, we still have the question...I don't know, third base!

 

I don’t give a darn.

[Winston Smith]

The only reason Kepler plays now is his OF defense his bat doesn't by itself and certainly doesn't play at 1B. No to Myers just another mediocre player we have plenty of them. Anyone thinking about Myers look at his contract coming up.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Who is the best DEFENSIVE 1B in the organization? Or available via trade? Or available via free agency?

I disagree with posters who seemingly dismiss the value of a strong defensive 1B. !B handles the ball more often than anyone aside from the pitcher and catcher. A good one digs hurried throws out of the dirt and makes it look easy. I hope Mauer returns for this reason.

And don't move Sano from 3B. He is much better at 3B than anywhere else. He has a string arm, and has made some very nice plays there. 

Personally, I hope Mauer comes back and plays at least half-time at 1B.

[nicksaviking]

 

Didn't we get a new stadium so we could afford a few high level talented players?  Maybe there is no one to get or no one that will come to MN.

 

Well the free agent class is highlighted by Lucas Duda and Matt Adams. It's just not a strong position any longer. 

 

I'd guess it's because with today's technology and training the best athletes are typically the best hitters, and the best athletes don't waste their defensive talents at 1B. I'd think the fact that 1B has become a bit of a stale position is very correlated to the fact that shortstop is no longer an offensive black hole.

[Mike Sixel]

Who is the best DEFENSIVE 1B in the organization? Or available via trade? Or available via free agency?

I disagree with posters who seemingly dismiss the value of a strong defensive 1B. !B handles the ball more often than anyone aside from the pitcher and catcher. A good one digs hurried throws out of the dirt and makes it look easy. I hope Mauer returns for this reason.

And don't move Sano from 3B. He is much better at 3B than anywhere else. He has a string arm, and has made some very nice plays there.

Personally, I hope Mauer comes back and plays at least half-time at 1B.

People that watch every play, and every throw and dig, year after year, disagree with you. This isn't random posters....

[wabene]

People that watch every play, and every throw and dig, year after year, disagree with you. This isn't random posters....

This random poster likes watching Joe play first. TE size catch radius! His fellow infielders probably would agree. I like good defense in all sports nothing worse than those college football games where the last team with the ball wins. All that said this low A poster can't back that up with analytics

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

People that watch every play, and every throw and dig, year after year, disagree with you. This isn't random posters....

This random poster likes watching Joe play first. TE size catch radius! His fellow infielders probably would agree. I like good defense in all sports nothing worse than those college football games where the last team with the ball wins. All that said this low A poster can't back that up with analytics

Because they don't exist. At least not readily or publicly.

[Platoon]

I echo Rosterman in that it makes a difference who you have in the IF in how good a first base glove you should have. Yes, it's a bat first position without a doubt. But in the existing possibility that someone in Twins management still thinks Polanco is a MLB SS, the glove part of the postion does grow somewhat. Hopefully everyone remembers Vargas' play at that corner, and how accepting everyone was of his leather shortcomings. And while his bat never did carry his glove, the comments on his defensive play will likely sound familiar come this summer. I am still trying to get the idea of Robbie Grossman at 1B out of my head. It's doubtful I will be able to sleep tonight, the thought is that disturbing!

[Danchat]

 

Who is the best DEFENSIVE 1B in the organization? Or available via trade? Or available via free agency?

I disagree with posters who seemingly dismiss the value of a strong defensive 1B. !B handles the ball more often than anyone aside from the pitcher and catcher. A good one digs hurried throws out of the dirt and makes it look easy. I hope Mauer returns for this reason.

And don't move Sano from 3B. He is much better at 3B than anywhere else. He has a string arm, and has made some very nice plays there. 

Personally, I hope Mauer comes back and plays at least half-time at 1B.

Gonna be honest here, when it comes to 1B, I really don't think defense should be much of a factor. The Twins badly needed somebody to power the offense from that spot and Morrison couldn't do it... plus with below-average bats like Buxton's and Kepler's in the lineup who are very good defensively, they could use a position to skimp on defense but pick up gains on offense.

 

We haven't seen Sano much at 1B, how can we say for sure that he's "much better" at 3B? He grades below average according to most defensive metrics I've seen, so he'd have to be pretty terrible at every other position.

[Kelly Vance]

Keps runs too well to waste his defensive OF skills on first base. Austin can play most of the games with Sano and others spelling him.  We need a solid new IF stud at middle infield somewhere and a solid RBI/Homer guy for DH.  Plus pitchers

[Mike Sixel]

Because they don't exist. At least not readily or publicly.

What doesn't exist?

 

Defense is calculated for first base. There just aren't that many opportunities to make plays others rarely do. The data is readily available.

[ChrisKnutson]

Keps runs too well to waste his defensive OF skills on first base. Austin can play most of the games with Sano and others spelling him.  We need a solid new IF stud at middle infield somewhere and a solid RBI/Homer guy for DH.  Plus pitchers

 

I agree with you on Kepler, getting a new middle infielder, and adding more pitching, but in disagreement, I’d prefer that we move Sano to 1st, sign Nelson Cruz to DH, and then find a new 3rd basemen because I really don’t wanna see Austin starting on a regular basis at 1st unless someone gets hurt (likely Sano).

[USAFChief]

What doesn't exist?

 

Defense is calculated for first base. There just aren't that many opportunities to make plays others rarely do. The data is readily available.

Data is available.

 

"THE" data is open to interpretation. Some of us are pretty skeptical of publicly available defensive stats.

[Tom Froemming]

Last season Joe Mauer had 20 scoops in 753 2/3 innings played at first base, per FanGraphs. That's basically one scoop per every four games he played there.

 

Copy/pasted this over from the comments of the Polanco article I recently wrote. Sorry to those who already saw it, but I feel like it's worth mentioning again.

 

Yes, you'd much rather have a good defensive player at first, but I'd certainly be willing to sacrifice on defense if it meant more offensive production. While first basemen are involved in a great number of plays throughout a game, the vast majority of them are routine.

[Wizard11]

I like the idea of an impact player to help get this team going. Paul Goldschmidt is likely available and checks a lot of boxes. D-Backs need to rebuild their farm. I think we should help them with that endeavor.

[Platoon]

Last season Joe Mauer had 20 scoops in 753 2/3 innings played at first base, per FanGraphs. That's basically one scoop per every four games he played there.

 

Copy/pasted this over from the comments of the Polanco article I recently wrote. Sorry to those who already saw it, but I feel like it's worth mentioning again.

 

Yes, you'd much rather have a good defensive player at first, but I'd certainly be willing to sacrifice on defense if it meant more offensive production. While first basemen are involved in a great number of plays throughout a game, the vast majority of them are routine.

I don't have any specific data to argue yours on the "scoops". But I wondered what a "scoop" is? Any ball in the dirt? And it just does not seem possible that the Twins IF only throw one ball every 4 games into the dirt? I am not saying the data is wrong, but that number seems extraordinary low.

[Kelly Vance]

 

People that watch every play, and every throw and dig, year after year, disagree with you. This isn't random posters....

Wait a minute.... really? "People disagree with you?"  Sorry, but that is something that I would challenge. 

What people?  

[Tom Froemming]

 

I don't have any specific data to argue yours on the "scoops". But I wondered what a "scoop" is? Any ball in the dirt? And it just does not seem possible that the Twins IF only throw one ball every 4 games into the dirt? I am not saying the data is wrong, but that number seems extraordinary low.

Correct, it's any throw that hits the dirt prior to reaching the first baseman. I get what you're saying, I think if you were to ask me to predict how many balls Mauer dug out of the dirt last season I'd probably have guessed double what their number is. But that data comes from Baseball Info Solutions, who assign someone to track that kind of stuff for every MLB game.

 

I have not been able to audit that information myself/didn't track scoops, so that's the best I've got to go off of. I'll be working on some defensive stuff for a future installment of the 2018 highlights series I've been running. I know I've got a bunch of Mauer scoops in those, I'm interested in tallying them up.

 

After thinking about how few plays there are on the infield these days, however, that low frequency of scoops doesn't really surprise me all too much. I think on average there are only 10 or 11 ground balls hit per team per game and a couple of those are going to go for hits. That doesn't leave a whole lotta plays to be made in the first place.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What doesn't exist?

 

Data on bounced throws to first base. We just don't have that data (we the public) other than that "scoops" column, which doesn't tell us much. Absent the stat cast data, maybe a "scoops missed" column is the next step.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Data on bounced throws to first base. We just don't have that data (we the public) other than that "scoops" column, which doesn't tell us much. Absent the stat cast data, maybe a "scoops missed" column is the next step.

Scoop runs saved is what you're looking for, it's essentially successful scoop percentage. I don't believe that's available online, though I could be wrong. I think it's in the Fielding Bible, which is available in print each year. Scoop runs saved is a component of Defensive Runs Saved, which is available at FanGraphs.

 

I'm not out to debate with anybody on whether or not Joe Mauer is a good defensive first baseman. He is. No doubt in my mind. And the metrics back that up, rating him a +3 in DRS last season, so above average. He didn't rank among the top guys in the league at the position, but a big part of that was because he only made 85 starts at first.

 

My question is how much more valuable is a good defensive player at first base compared to one that may be slightly below average? I'm not sure what the exact answer would be, but there's certainly a point in where a guy can provide enough with the bat to make up for any defensive shortcomings.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Scoop runs saved is what you're looking for, it's essentially successful scoop percentage. I don't believe that's available online, though I could be wrong. I think it's in the Fielding Bible, which is available in print each year. Scoop runs saved is a component of Defensive Runs Saved, which is available at FanGraphs.

 

I'm not out to debate with anybody on whether or not Joe Mauer is a good defensive first baseman. He is. No doubt in my mind. And the metrics back that up, rating him a +3 in DRS last season, so above average. He didn't rank among the top guys in the league at the position, but a big part of that was because he only made 85 starts at first.

 

My question is how much more valuable is a good defensive player at first base compared to one that may be slightly below average? I'm not sure what the exact answer would be, but there's certainly a point in where a guy can provide enough with the bat to make up for any defensive shortcomings.

And I'm not arguing Mauer is irreplaceable at first base, or that a lot of offense at first base can't make up for subpar fielding there.

 

My belief is that first base defense matters. As far as scoop data, I think it would be interesting to see the speed of throws, spin of bounce, distance from bag, that sort of thing, and then be able to compare similar throws with how other first baseman picked those, before having all that scoop data interpreted or rolled into another stat category.

 

I think Mauer was one of the best, but maybe most good first baseman are pretty close. Don't know. I think moving Sano to first base is now under real consideration; he had throwing problems in the minors and to correct that I think he was instructed to throw low. And he throws hard. Mauer could pick his throws better than Morrison could.

 

I think scooping throws is both an underappreciated skill but also something a first baseman is never charged an error for failing to do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

They need a bat there. The team's failing this year was mostly on offense, a year prior to being one of the better offensive teams in baseball. I have no problems plugging Austin in and seeing if he can drop that K rate over time, but I think the team needs a big bopper. I'm on record saynig to get Nelson Cruz. I still would.

 

I'd probably go out and get Escobar too, which between him, Garver, and Cave, could probably give Austin days off against tough righties. I'd still want another 2B and CF though.

[ashbury]

My belief is that first base defense matters.

Defense matters at every position. I appreciate a slick play at 1B as well as the next fan.

 

But there's a reason a lumbering DH-type is played at 1B - it's the best place to hide him. Guys like Kennys Vargas make scoops too. The differential between what Mauer can do on top of that is pretty small. And not every baserunner from a failed scoop turns into a run. And not every un-prevented run turns into a win.

 

You need a whale of a lot of defense at 1B to even move the needle.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Defense matters at every position. I appreciate a slick play at 1B as well as the next fan.

 

But there's a reason a lumbering DH-type is played at 1B - it's the best place to hide him. Guys like Kennys Vargas make scoops too,. The differential between what Mauer can do on top of that is pretty small. And not every baserunner from a failed scoop turns into a run. And not every un-prevented run turns into a win.

 

You need a whale of a lot of defense at 1B to even move the needle.

maybe so, but it might be nice to have that granular data I was mentioning before we decide we can dismiss it. Otherwise it's just a hunch, as hunchy as my hunch or anyone else's

 

This scoop thing came to light right away in April 2018 in Yankee Stadium when Morrison missed a not too difficult short hop throw by Sano in the 9th, which eventually led to the Yankees winning the game. That one helped move the needle the wrong direction.

[nicksaviking]

 

Keps runs too well to waste his defensive OF skills on first base. Austin can play most of the games with Sano and others spelling him.  We need a solid new IF stud at middle infield somewhere and a solid RBI/Homer guy for DH.  Plus pitchers

 

I'd say that Target Field's small RF dimensions minimize the benefits of Kepler's speed. In fact, if a groundball pitcher like Gibson is on the mound, his added range covering the infield may be more beneficial than in RF.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Correct, it's any throw that hits the dirt prior to reaching the first baseman. I get what you're saying, I think if you were to ask me to predict how many balls Mauer dug out of the dirt last season I'd probably have guessed double what their number is. But that data comes from Baseball Info Solutions, who assign someone to track that kind of stuff for every MLB game.

 

I have not been able to audit that information myself/didn't track scoops, so that's the best I've got to go off of. I'll be working on some defensive stuff for a future installment of the 2018 highlights series I've been running. I know I've got a bunch of Mauer scoops in those, I'm interested in tallying them up.

 

After thinking about how few plays there are on the infield these days, however, that low frequency of scoops doesn't really surprise me all too much. I think on average there are only 10 or 11 ground balls hit per team per game and a couple of those are going to go for hits. That doesn't leave a whole lotta plays to be made in the first place.

 

seems like the "Scoop" definition could be a little narrow to answer the question asked. The quality of a first baseman's fielding play would be similar to that of a hockey goalie - how many thrown balls did the first baseman stop from getting past them? What was their "save percentage"? What is the WPA to the first baseman standing on their head? How many runs does save failures at first base cost you over a season?

 

Frequently errors get attributed to the 3B/SS/2B, but what we want to know is how often does the first baseman stop things from getting out of hand.

 

As Mike said, the data is out there, but the analysis is tricky.

 

Scoops may be a solid leading indicator. Much like OPS is a leading indicator to contribution to runs created, Scoops might be a leading indicator to runs prevented. I wish I had time to dig in....

[Kelly Vance]

 

I'd say that Target Field's small RF dimensions minimize the benefits of Kepler's speed. In fact, if a groundball pitcher like Gibson is on the mound, his added range covering the infield may be more beneficial than in RF.

Doubt it

[Mr. Brooks]

When a first baseman can carry a Drew Butera like bat, and still carve out a long MLB career, then I'll believe that elite first base defense is much more valuable than average first base defense.

[Sarah]

 

I'd say that Target Field's small RF dimensions minimize the benefits of Kepler's speed. In fact, if a groundball pitcher like Gibson is on the mound, his added range covering the infield may be more beneficial than in RF.

 

Yes but he filled in at center field too when Buxton was injured and he is a good defensive outfielder in general. He has long, athletic strides that would be wasted at first base. Stop the madness! :-) 

[Platoon]

I used to play ball with a first baseman I referred to as "The Refridgerator". Not only because he was the same size, but also the same mobility. If you hit him with a throw, he caught it. Off target by a couple feet? Not a chance. While no one in MLB is on that level, like everything else, it simply based on a sliding scale.