But for the will to act

[Teflon]

"The Brewers went into last winter as an 86-win team with a perfectly respectable young outfield and then went ahead and acquired a new and even better one. They signed Lorenzo Cain at a price that was only made possible by a plurality of teams opting to more or less sit the offseason out or pursue bespoke ownership-directed courses of idiocy; they dealt a bunch of promising prospects to a Marlins team once again selling off everything it could and received Christian Yelich in return. These were gambles—Cain’s game is built around speed, a tool that is not at all age-resistant, and Yelich was a good big leaguer who hadn’t developed into the sort of star that scouts had long believed he could be—and ones that the Brewers didn’t strictly need to take. Signing Cain blocked top centerfield prospect Lewis Brinson, so the team made Brinson the centerpiece of its Yelich offer. Yelich in turn squeezed out Domingo Santana, who hit 30 homers for the Brewers as a 24-year-old in 2017 and started this season in Triple-A. The Brewers made these moves because they identified a chance make the team not just better but a lot better, and they worked out."

 

from The Brewers Have Played This All Perfectly by David Roth on Deadspin

 

I enjoyed this article a lot but it also depressed me to realize that there's such a comparative shortfall of ideas and daring-to-do on this side of the river. 

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed. They didn't sit around and hope on prospects.... Big fan.

[Riverbrian]

It is one of the most impressive GM performances that I have ever seen. 

 

This is exactly what the Twins should do... Starting Right now.... this... off season. 

 

Falvey should be calling his old friend from Cleveland David Stearns and have those philosophical discussions just to soak it in. 

 

It isn't just Cain and Yelich. He built a killer bullpen to support a weaker rotation. 

 

 

 

 

[ND-Fan]

 

The opportunity of doing this has past the Twins after this year our prospects and young players value has dropped so significantly we could not get anything in trade to improve this club dramatically. Also last year was one time opportunity when we had Marlins doing fire sale trading away good proven talent last time that really happened was with the Marlins about 10 years ago. I don't see any clubs presently looking to tank in the coming year so getting fire sale for prospects is not in offering this coming year unless its us which it could be. 

The path or plan were on is everything is based on Buxton and Sano and if that fails this coming year look for us to have another gutting of this team for future prospects and hope we are one of the bottom teams to get high draft picks. I believe when ownership changed Front Offices they felt they so farm behind analytical teams they were going to hire leading people to transform this organization to leading analytical team which in theory to many of younger generation made all the sense. I think this has been mistake because now we have lost eye test and people skills of dealing with players from the old school of developing baseball organization. I think we need people from old school that understand analystics but also have the people skills and baseball knowledge to build good organization.  I look at this front office there two years here and the gaffs they have made with handling people were aware of is pretty glaring that they lack people skills. I here people they are saying all right things but look at there moves and how they have handled different players. The examples of Escobar learning he was traded on tv and also the manager learning of the trade same way. The repercussion of veteran players voicing concerns of lack of support. To even now the handling of Molitor firing not something I believe that was handled real well and certainly not well received by press or community. I think the teams that were real analytical are now coming back to more balanced approach. My personal preferences is that changes the analytical and metric people have made to baseball may be downfall to grow baseball in the future. These systems grew out by need of some smallest clubs needing to cut costs they have worked to reduce costs and larger clubs seeing this increase their profit margins. The costs are we getting a game that is real boring to watch, the games are getting longer to watch, and we have lost identity of team with players being dealt like chips in poker game. I would like to explain some my complaints with this new era in baseball. The first big change is that we now have team made up more than half pitchers especially if you look at way these young pitchers are moved up and down from the minors. This use of maximum number of pitchers we end up with at least on average 3 to 4 pitching changes per game. This alone has added at least 45 minutes to the game. Second we have lowered the offensive side of game because of this where there is usually very little offense in latter part of the games especially for the elite clubs. Third we have these young pitchers coming in throwing at max velocity for 3 outs or less but were seeing pitchers that tommy john is just the norm and then they wonder why they more injuries and surgeries today.  All this because ownership doesn't want to pay for starting pitching so they are making up for this young kids at minimum salaries. Then we have had how better philosophy for hitting for power and so we have seen from offensive side strike out rates beyond belief and players don't care. So we have these at bats that take time because it takes more pitches usually to strike some one out and more time wasted and no action not even seeing the players making defensive play.  Then we now have teams destined to fail and clubs that by middle of the year if they are what they determine beyond what they think they can win they just sell of top players for future prospects. This is just another cost cutting program and ensure that you get higher draft pick. The problem nobody seams to care about the fan that wants to come watch the baseball game for team they are rooting for.  When team gives up why should fan come out spend good earned money for a team that has already given up. Well everybody tells me you got to look to the future but doesn't help me now to want to watch your club. Even in past when a club traded away there stars it meant then they would bring up their talent from the farm system see how ready they were to be here in the majors. Today that doesn't happen because your burning up service time on these young players but that was way in past people came to ball park to see what the future held for the club. All these changes have been because of economics but baseball continues to loose fans and people which I don't understand why ownership hasn't addressed this because they are gradually killing the goose that laid golden egg. Also because of these changes were not going have labor peace which we had in last 20 years and were going to have real labor fights again hurting baseball.  But getting back to the Twins I just don't see this front office being able to accomplish what the Brewers have been doing both teams were about equal last year and we regressed with our moves and they have set themselves up for run at the world series.

[h2oface]

The Brewers made all the right moves. Our guys made all the wrong ones, and the "fans" adored them as, dare I say it...... I do....... because it is history....... "crushing it". But the reality is, regardless of whether one wants to take the easy road and say they were the right moves, all the stats said so.... the players just performed horribly - the reality is they were all the wrong moves, and they are now history, and can be viewed not as hindsight, but history, and poor identification. 

 

Very impressive what the Brewers accomplished. I don't call it luck. I call it genius. And they are "killing it!"

[DocBauer]

OK. Tremendous moves! And made at the right time and place, in the right market.

 

Much like the AJ trade to the Giants to place Mauer at catcher and acquire Nathan, Bonser AND Liriano. These kinds of moves just don't happen ever day.

 

Boy do I wish the Twins could pull something like this! But is it reality? Or just smart and lucky opportunity?

 

Does this team need a couple smart FA signings and maybe one smart or lucky trade? Absolutely! But what it also needs is a couple guys to just be healthy and figure some stuff out! No trade will do that!

[Han Joelo]

To have both moves work out is strong.  Easy to see where Cain could stall out in a year or two, but whatever.  Its already worth it in my book.  

 

What would have been an analogous trade for Yelich had the Twins done it?  Buxton+?  Would've seemed like an overpay last winter, but not so much now.

 

This is the kind of thinking I'd like to see, anyway.  Bolder moves that remake the roster, and with it, the club culture.

[big dog]

Trading both Span and Revere could have been these moves, but weren't (though I'd much rather have May now than Revere so...?)..  Trading Hicks definitely wasn't.  I thought signing Reed might have been a move like this, too.

 

I certainly want smarter, or at least luckier, trades and signings.

 

Getting something for Lance Lynn at least seems like a mini-steal right now.

[nicksaviking]

I like how aggressive the Brewers were and I like the example the set.

 

However, I still can't believe that rotation won them 96 games. I think they got lucky in that area and think putting a good but not elite offense around what appeared to be an average at best rotation was a bit reckless and shortsighted.

[Dantes929]

Ok, I get the formula.   In a depressed market go get a solid outfielder at age 32 sign him to a 5 year contract and have him play 10 points better on OPS+ than his career average of 108 and better than any other year save one.

Take a 24 year old guy that just hit 30 homers and had a 126  OPS+  season and start him in the minors.

Trade 4 prospects for a solid outfielder coming off a 120 OPS+ season and have him play to a 1.000 OPS, a  164 OPS+ and likely MVP.   

I really don't know why the Twins didn't sign Cain to a long term deal, start Rosario in AAA and give up Buxton, Kiriloff and Thorpe to get Yelich.

I'm not trying to take credit away from the Brewers but just temper it a little with snark because yeah, they had their share of luck.   

[bighat]

 

Agreed. They didn't sit around and hope on prospects.... Big fan.

 

Yep. "Waiting for Buxton" sounds more and more like the title of a sad ESPN 30-for-30 documentary.

 

I think not calling Buxton up this September was a nice move by Falvine and it should set the tone moving forward. At this point the Twins should be penciling in Cave and Rosario in the OF, and should be looking hard at making moves for another starting OF to join them next year.

[Blackjack]

 

Yep. "Waiting for Buxton" sounds more and more like the title of a sad ESPN 30-for-30 documentary.

 

I think not calling Buxton up this September was a nice move by Falvine and it should set the tone moving forward. At this point the Twins should be penciling in Cave and Rosario in the OF, and should be looking hard at making moves for another starting OF to join them next year.

I think an outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and Cave would be just fine next year.   Make it a competition, the best players play.   Buxton and Kepler are too young to give up on.   Rotate them, see who's best, every starter should be given a day off now and then to refresh and rest. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK. Tremendous moves! And made at the right time and place, in the right market.

Much like the AJ trade to the Giants to place Mauer at catcher and acquire Nathan, Bonser AND Liriano. These kinds of moves just don't happen ever day.

Boy do I wish the Twins could pull something like this! But is it reality? Or just smart and lucky opportunity?

Does this team need a couple smart FA signings and maybe one smart or lucky trade? Absolutely! But what it also needs is a couple guys to just be healthy and figure some stuff out! No trade will do that!

 

There is nothing lucky about signing Cain and trading for another OF.....they didn't sit around and wait on prospects, they got proven MLB players. Players signed for more than 1 year, because they weren't bad or coming off injury or super old, or needing to reestablish value or anything like that. It was 180 degrees from what the Twins tried this off season. 180 degrees.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think an outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and Cave would be just fine next year.   Make it a competition, the best players play.   Buxton and Kepler are too young to give up on.   Rotate them, see who's best, every starter should be given a day off now and then to refresh and rest. 

 

"just fine" is one heck of an endorsement in trying to create a great team.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ok, I get the formula.   In a depressed market go get a solid outfielder at age 32 sign him to a 5 year contract and have him play 10 points better on OPS+ than his career average of 108 and better than any other year save one.

Take a 24 year old guy that just hit 30 homers and had a 126  OPS+  season and start him in the minors.

Trade 4 prospects for a solid outfielder coming off a 120 OPS+ season and have him play to a 1.000 OPS, a  164 OPS+ and likely MVP.   

I really don't know why the Twins didn't sign Cain to a long term deal, start Rosario in AAA and give up Buxton, Kiriloff and Thorpe to get Yelich.

I'm not trying to take credit away from the Brewers but just temper it a little with snark because yeah, they had their share of luck.   

 

You like the plan of only signing bargain FAs and never trading top prospects better? How's that working out the last decade?

[nicksaviking]

 

There is nothing lucky about signing Cain and trading for another OF.....they didn't sit around and wait on prospects, they got proven MLB players. Players signed for more than 1 year, because they weren't bad or coming off injury or super old, or needing to reestablish value or anything like that. It was 180 degrees from what the Twins tried this off season. 180 degrees.

 

I think the lucky part was that both Cain and Yelich had unexpected career years and their extremely underwhelming rotation that they completely failed to address in any meaningful way somehow hung on.

 

I think there's plenty of room to both applaud the Brewers and point out that they probably got quite lucky. It worked out and I'm cheering for them, but I don't think this was some kind of genius masterstroke.

 

Also, while I'd like with a Yelich-type move this offseason for the Twins, I'd be more interested in figuring out what exactly the Brewers did to change Yelich's game. That might be more important than the actual trade. He is a completely different hitter than he was in Miami.

[Dantes929]

 

You like the plan of only signing bargain FAs and never trading top prospects better? How's that working out the last decade?

Not so great.  Worked pretty well the prior decade.  Didn't work out so well in the late 90's.   Worked out really well some of the years in the late 80's and early 90's.  Ask again in 5 years.   I was pretty happy with Odorizzi and ok with Lynn.    Didn't take too much imagination to think Buxton, Kepler, Sano, and Dozier would have good years among others and that the Twins looked much better on paper than the team that made the playoffs last year.   The predictions on this site were uncharacteristically optimistic this spring.    There was a very reasonable basis for it.    Also easy to imagine is Crain and Yelich simply having average seasons and missing the playoffs.   I made fun of the formula but the most basic formula for looking like a genius is to have the players that you think are capable of playing well to actually play well.   

[USAFChief]

Ok, I get the formula. In a depressed market go get a solid outfielder at age 32 sign him to a 5 year contract and have him play 10 points better on OPS+ than his career average of 108 and better than any other year save one.

Take a 24 year old guy that just hit 30 homers and had a 126 OPS+ season and start him in the minors.

Trade 4 prospects for a solid outfielder coming off a 120 OPS+ season and have him play to a 1.000 OPS, a 164 OPS+ and likely MVP.

I really don't know why the Twins didn't sign Cain to a long term deal, start Rosario in AAA and give up Buxton, Kiriloff and Thorpe to get Yelich.

I'm not trying to take credit away from the Brewers but just temper it a little with snark because yeah, they had their share of luck.

I think you're missing the point. It's not the specific players that matter. It's the willingness to take bold action to improve the big league roster, by spending money and prospects for immediate gain.

 

It's having the courage and vision to spend. It's not sitting around too afraid to pull the trigger because, oh my gosh, we're not the Yankees! What about 2022? What if one of these prospects become a MLB player?

 

Huzzah for the Brewers. Seize the day. Take a shot. It might go in.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not so great.  Worked pretty well the prior decade.  Didn't work out so well in the late 90's.   Worked out really well some of the years in the late 80's and early 90's.  Ask again in 5 years.   I was pretty happy with Odorizzi and ok with Lynn.    Didn't take too much imagination to think Buxton, Kepler, Sano, and Dozier would have good years among others and that the Twins looked much better on paper than the team that made the playoffs last year.   The predictions on this site were uncharacteristically optimistic this spring.    There was a very reasonable basis for it.    Also easy to imagine is Crain and Yelich simply having average seasons and missing the playoffs.   I made fun of the formula but the most basic formula for looking like a genius is to have the players that you think are capable of playing well to actually play well.   

 

In the late 80s and early 90s they signed Jack Morris to the largest FA contract ever, and signed Don Baylor (and more).......they didn't shop the bargain bin in 87......there is no coincidence that they did well that year (lucky to win it all, sure).

 

And sure, the Brewers had good fortune this year.....but they partly made that happen by not sitting around and waiting on prospects. 

[jkcarew]

Cain...it's been good so far.  But, we'll see, things have yet to play out.

But to me, the story is Yelich and the bullpen.

 

We know how Yelich was acquired.  To their credit, Milwaukee beat all other clubs in taking further advantage of a historic yard-sale by the Marlins.  But, it was a bit of an anomaly...both in terms of the partner's absolutely historic willingness to dump young, relatively inexpensive, talent...and the ideal result in terms of the player's immediate performance.  IMO, clubs are much more likely to hurt themselves than help themselves if they convince themselves that they 'need' to go out and make a splash with a "Yelich-like" deal.  It's probably a once-a-decade opportunity/result.

 

Does that mean I think the Twins FO has been sufficiently aggressive?  No.  It just means I'd just as soon see a story about how the Brewer's FO developed/acquired the bullpen arms.  That might provide a more realistic and sustainable template to mimic.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 

 

Also, while I'd like with a Yelich-type move this offseason for the Twins, I'd be more interested in figuring out what exactly the Brewers did to change Yelich's game. That might be more important than the actual trade. He is a completely different hitter than he was in Miami.

Agree 100%

[USAFChief]

I like how aggressive the Brewers were and I like the example the set.

 

However, I still can't believe that rotation won them 96 games. I think they got lucky in that area and think putting a good but not elite offense around what appeared to be an average at best rotation was a bit reckless and shortsighted.

Or, an average at best rotation isn’t as important as we’ve been led to believe, when coupled to a good and deep bullpen.

 

And if they were reckless and shortsighted, I hope Falvine suffer from the same affliction.

[Jham]

I think you're missing the point. It's not the specific players that matter. It's the willingness to take bold action to improve the big league roster, by spending money and prospects for immediate gain.

 

It's having the courage and vision to spend. It's not sitting around too afraid to pull the trigger because, oh my gosh, we're not the Yankees! What about 2022? What if one of these prospects become a MLB player?

 

Huzzah for the Brewers. Seize the day. Take a shot. It might go in.

Agreed. There is absolutely nothing lucky about getting identifying places where the team can improve, even if not a problem, and upgrading! If anything, the teams that wait for prospects and work on 3 to 5 year contention plans are the team's going to "get lucky". The royals and pirates and Indians have been mostly terrible for decades. 2 of those teams had true contention windows. There's a hindsight bias involved. Adding some veteran pieces generates expectations of contention. Success is expected and goes unnoticed. Building from within with young talent requires that a lot of things outside of your control go right, and when you hit, you look like a genius. In poker, they call it a "hero call". Low percentage play that makes you look good when it works.

 

I've always said a GMs role is to constantly look to improve overall talent of the roster. Then let the chips fall where they may. Not to assume you're going to be good or bad.

 

There is not a single position that can't be upgraded on our roster. Upgrade where it's easiest and cheapest. Don't worry about a plan or a 3 year old prospect report. Suggesting we have to improve "here" but "here" makes no sense. Improve wherever you can!

 

Also, trading Prospect for Value isn't giving up on them.

[TheLeviathan]

It should be pointed out that in recent memory other teams have tried this and seen very different results.  The Padres a few years back, the White Sox had a few years of doing that, Seattle, etc.

 

I think aggression, like prospect hording, trading, and any other actions a club can take are about timing and approach.  You can't constantly have your foot on the gas any more than you can constantly ride the brake.

 

Smart teams find a way to take their foot off to reload and then press it back down hard when the time is right.

[Tomj14]

I am surprised that people didn't think Yelich would have the year he had. Milwaukee seems like a band box, and last year I would have traded Kepler or Rosario for him. (had this discussion with a guy at work)

 

They went out an upgraded a position, Santana was decent in 2017 but wasn't before that.

[Number3]

To ND-fan:

 

One of the best posts I have seen on any board on any topic. I usually don't read the long posts verbatim because same old same old. You have bulls eyed so many aspects of the Twins and MLB in general and the summation is that the bean counters rule and true baseball people are a thing of the past. I argued on other boards that going over spreadsheets does not replace doing the leg work and the eye test is the ultimate test, not the obp+ analytic. There is a subjective aspect to a true winner (which is what counts) that can't be formulated into a spreadsheet formula and that includes the stupid WAR stat.

Ditto on use of many young pitchers, injuries, too much emphasis on the home run, on and on. Just sign good ball players(I was actually ridiculed for using that term), a GOOD MANAGER and play to win

 

(I assume ND stands for Notre Dame. They did a number on out local VA Tech team last Sat. If that lineman down field penalty hadn't been called early in the game on VT it might have been different but I doubt it.)

[nicksaviking]

 

Or, an average at best rotation isn’t as important as we’ve been led to believe, when coupled to a good and deep bullpen.

And if they were reckless and shortsighted, I hope Falvine suffer from the same affliction.

 

It certainly could be that I over-estimate the need for a strong rotation.

 

I still think that had the Twins done what the Brewers did last off season and won 96 games, that once October arrived many of us (or again, maybe just myself) would have still said great record, fun season, but how the hell is that Twins rotation supposed to get past Sale, Verlander, Kluber and Severino?

[nicksaviking]

 

I am surprised that people didn't think Yelich would have the year he had. Milwaukee seems like a band box, and last year I would have traded Kepler or Rosario for him. (had this discussion with a guy at work)

 

They went out an upgraded a position, Santana was decent in 2017 but wasn't before that.

 

Well Yelich was one of those hitters who seemed to resist the launch angle craze, he hit a ton of groundballs and a good percentage of line drives but his flyball percentage was low. He wasn't unlike Kepler. However, while Kepler actually did change his GB/FB ratios quite a bit in 2017, Yelich really did not, they're similar to last year. What looks different is that Yelich's hard hit percentage jumped 12% while Kepler's only jumped 3%. I'd guess whatever has caused that spike is where we'd find the improvement. I can't imagine that was ballpark related though.

[KirbyDome89]

I think we're assuming this was what the Brewers envisioned. They no doubt saw adding Cain and Yelich as an upgrade but I doubt they knew they were getting the NL MVP. Yelich is a very good, young player on an extremely team friendly deal. Kudos to Milwaukee for taking advantage of Miami's perennial fire sale, but they certainly didn't luck into acquiring him, nor did they get him for a discount. They might have exceeded expectations but as has been mentioned above, the process was sound. They didn't find any pitching so they did the next best thing, and it worked out. 

[Riverbrian]

 

OK. Tremendous moves! And made at the right time and place, in the right market.

Much like the AJ trade to the Giants to place Mauer at catcher and acquire Nathan, Bonser AND Liriano. These kinds of moves just don't happen ever day.

Boy do I wish the Twins could pull something like this! But is it reality? Or just smart and lucky opportunity?

Does this team need a couple smart FA signings and maybe one smart or lucky trade? Absolutely! But what it also needs is a couple guys to just be healthy and figure some stuff out! No trade will do that!

 

Can the Twins add a Cain and Yelich equivalent this off season. Maybe... Maybe Not? It doesn't matter... the Twins just need to move on from the old way and try to improve each roster spot. 

 

The old way was saying we got Trevor Plouffe at 3B and moving on to finding a bullpen guy cheaply. 

 

The old way this off season would be saying we got Rosario, Buxton and Kepler so there is need to trade for Yelich because the OF is set. Or saying Jake Cave did alright this year... He can be the 4th OF and then moving on to find a 2B. 

 

The Brewers had Braun, Broxton, Santana, Phillips plus... Thames, Perez and Villar who could also play OF. They didn't say... We got more than enough OF... They added Cain and Yelich and utilized the options available on Santana and Broxton. They gave Bruan a first base mitt to use in spring training. They improved when and where they got the chance and didn't let players become etched in stone at static positions to block the possibilities.  

 

We don't have to trade for an MVP type like Yelich... We just got to trade or sign someone who has ability and make it work. We can give Kepler a first base mitt to create space. We got the DH position to use. Buxton and Cave have options to stash in AAA for even more depth. 

 

The Brewers, Dodgers and Cubs have figured this out... the rest of the league has to catch up to them now. Gather your assets where you may. The new manager just needs to be able to figure out how to handle the "good problem to have".