Article: Offseason Primer: Building a Badass Bullpen

[Vanimal46]

While I agree that the bullpen needs to be better and the more good players you have the better your team will be, I disagree with this article's premise that the only way to win a World Series is to imitate other teams' success around the league.

 

The beauty of this sport is it's enormous schedule, which allows for different models to reach that same end goal. Whoever determines the next trend is the one who will likely win the WS.

 

And sometimes you just get lucky. (eg. 1987)

No doubt, there's more than one way to skin a cat over the course of 162 games. Step one, and the only step that really matters, is bringing in more talented players.

[USAFChief]

Been saying this for a long time...the "bullpen guys are easy to find" theory was always wrong, and a dominant pen is the simplest way to gain a significant advantage.

 

Find and acquire at least two legit dominant arms, and another flyer or three.

 

I also believe a manager more adept at managing his pen, and more adept at knowing when to remove his starter, will boost the pens performance all by itself.

[nicksaviking]

 

Agree completely, but I was thinking in terms of finding the Joe Nathan type of guys already on other rosters having years of control but not being utilized to their fullest extent.

 

I hope the team is constantly looking to trade for undervalued guys, but at this point I don't want them pinning the success of 2019's bullpen a diamond in the rough. 

[caninatl04]

Why did no one mention Belisle! I’m sure he’ll be available.

 

On a more serious note, Familia and Ottavino led the majors in WAR per mlb.com

 

And I think Hildenberger will be better next year with more judicious use.

 

I also see nothing wrong with trying out a few of the AAA starters as relievers as an intro to the majors with the thought of promoting them to starter in 2020. Don’t one or two of them have 100 mph fastballs?

[nicksaviking]

 

Been saying this for a long time...the "bullpen guys are easy to find" theory was always wrong, and a dominant pen is the simplest way to gain a significant advantage.

Find and acquire at least two legit dominant arms, and another flyer or three.

I also believe a manager more adept at managing his pen, and more adept at knowing when to remove his starter, will boost the pens performance all by itself.

 

I'd think the third paragraph would be easier should the second paragraph be realized. I'm in no way giving Molior a pass for his bullpen usage, but I'd guess if the manager had more than two relievers at any given time who were reliable it would be easier to play matchups, give quick hooks and not to overwork.

[Kelly Vance]

In other news, Harmon Killebrew Award winner Jake Reed continues to get no love from the FO, despite having better numbers than all other guys called up last month.... and better than everyone not named Rogers on the big staff.

 

What's the deal? Is it a control issue, or do they just not like him?

[Doomtints]

The Twins had a really nice set of relief pitchers in 2018, but for some reason they chose to use arms that were not as good. They didn't know who they had. I'm not sure what metrics they were looking at but it wasn't anything common and each move made the staff worse overall.

 

Maybe Molitor going will fix the problem. I would give caution to the team to not overreact but I suspect overreacting is the plan. They should add two relievers but they don't need a complete overhaul. They still need a top shelf starter and a couple of nice vets to slap the ball around.

Edited October 8, 2018 by Doomtints

[Danchat]

In other news, Harmon Killebrew Award winner Jake Reed continues to get no love from the FO, despite having better numbers than all other guys called up last month.... and better than everyone not named Rogers on the big staff.

 

What's the deal? Is it a control issue, or do they just not like him?

I think the FO just doesn’t see anything in him. They didn’t protect him for the rule 5 draft and didn’t give him a call up, so I think he’ll be pitching more somebody else next year. I guess they’re going with the ‘AAA stats don’t transition to mlb’ theory... hasn’t worked for Busenitz.

[nicksaviking]

 

In other news, Harmon Killebrew Award winner Jake Reed continues to get no love from the FO, despite having better numbers than all other guys called up last month.... and better than everyone not named Rogers on the big staff.

 

What's the deal? Is it a control issue, or do they just not like him?

 

It looks to me like the front office values control with the young arms. Over the last two years Rogers and Hildenberger have gotten very long leashes, Busenitz and Moya get repeated looks throughout the season and Slegers and Stewart have gotten rather surprising promotions.

 

Meanwhile Burdi and Chargois are gone and Bard is only back because the Angels handed him back, he also Reed sits on the sideline with Reed. John Curtis has largely been in the same boat, he's gotten a September call up both of the past two years but was only given a token look both times and never got a mid year promotion despite his options.

[ChrisKnutson]

“Pay up” for Kimbrel, and then “pay down” for Allen.

[Vanimal46]

“Pay up” for Kimbrel, and then “pay down” for Allen.

Allen lost future money after every appearance this post season. Not to mention he was pretty bad throughout the regular season. Certainly a buy low candidate on a 1 year make good deal. 2 years tops.

[TheLeviathan]

What do people think is "buy low" on Allen exactly?

[Doomtints]

 

Agree completely, but I was thinking in terms of finding the Joe Nathan type of guys already on other rosters having years of control but not being utilized to their fullest extent.

 

I imagine every team is always searching for a Joe Nathan, no?

[yarnivek1972]

Been saying this for a long time...the "bullpen guys are easy to find" theory was always wrong, and a dominant pen is the simplest way to gain a significant advantage.

 

Find and acquire at least two legit dominant arms, and another flyer or three.

 

I also believe a manager more adept at managing his pen, and more adept at knowing when to remove his starter, will boost the pens performance all by itself.

Bullpen guys are easy to find. If you aren’t picky as to how good they are.

[DocBauer]

Bad news about Hildenberger and Reed? Bad seasons! The good news? Supposedly nothing physically wrong with either and we've seen what each is clearly capable of previously. At least one bouncing back is huge.

 

Part of the problem is not knowing how the rotation shakes out yet. For example, will they bring someone else on board, or does someone like Mejia get the opportunity and take the 5th spot?

 

Clearly upgrades are needed. But I doubt you will see the farm traded for a couple of RP, nor 2 big contracts, especially with Reed on the books. One big move I'm sure. Then a smaller 1 or 2 for bounce back seasons and the such, but better arms than Drake or Magill to be sure.

 

I'm hoping to go to ST with 4 guys we really feel good about, a couple guys who could be good with a bounce back, and then sort through the rest to find the best 1 or 2 guys for the job. Is it a guaranteed method for success? No, but its practical, doesn't break any financial or prospect bank, allows for opportunity, and could turn out to be very solid.

[caninatl04]

Nick Anderson? In AAA last year he had K/W of 88/19 and a nice whip of 1.13 Might he be a sixth or seventh piece?

[Teflon]

Would this Badass bullpen ultimately be more successful than the Kickass offense of Brad Childress? 

[yarnivek1972]

Nick Anderson? In AAA last year he had K/W of 88/19 and a nice whip of 1.13 Might he be a sixth or seventh piece?

Alan Busenitz had similarly stellar AAA numbers too. He likely will be taken off the 40 man roster at some point prior to the beginning of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

Would this Badass bullpen ultimately be more successful than the Kickass offense of Brad Childress?

Thanks. Thanks a lot

[twinssporto]

 

They need 3 bullpen signings, and at least 1 has to be a dominant arm. I would look to upgrade every "fringe" arm the Twins have. If there's any 40 man crunch problems, the first people I'd cut from the roster is Duffey, Busenitz, Curtiss, and Drake.

How much longer do we need to keep talking about Duffey? Hopefully you are right and we have a 40 man crunch and dump him.

[Vanimal46]

What do people think is "buy low" on Allen exactly?

$6-7 million would be buy low IMO. But if there's a bidding war I could see 3/$27

[TheLeviathan]

 

$6-7 million would be buy low IMO. But if there's a bidding war I could see 3/$27

 

Maybe, but that's what guys like TJ McFarland and Mike Minor got last year.

 

I'm guessing Miller, Allen are 10+ players.

[DocBauer]

I would like to see them be a bit creative as well. I cant recall his first name off the top of my head, but I recall how successful they were several years ago when they signed the LH Martinez, a former SP, who was looking for new life. He converted to the one very well, and I want to say even had a couple good years after he left us.

 

Absolutely nothing wrong with an older pitcher, or a younger one who hasn't lived up to his billing, being brought in for a conversion.

 

But please, not Romero. Even if moves are made and they decide he is best served opening at Rochester, dont convert him.

[gagu]

A good article overall, but I take issue with one statement;

"...but Reed showed nothing to indicate he's capable of being any kind of positive contributor."

While the jury is out on Reed's future arm issues, he certainly was a positive contributor for the first two months of '18, with an ERA of 3.03 on June 6th after 31 appearances. He was on pace for 81 appearances for the season. He got rocked in his next outing and was shut down for a week. 

Reed's troubles on paper started on May 29th. He entered the game, his fourth appearance in five days, with a 2.36 ERA. He was nicked with a blown save and his ERA rose continuously through August. In September, he only gave up one run, four hits, and one walk over 5.1 innings.

Reed posted a 2.84 ERA over 77 appearances in 2017, and 1.97 ERA in 80 appearances in 2016.

He will a 30-year-old next season after seven seasons with 55+ appearances. 

That said, I'd still argue that there is a reasonable chance that Reed will return to form and be an important contributor in 2019. 

 

[DocBauer]

Note: In regard to Anderson and Reed, I think it was Seth, who made a comment he felt they weren't brought up as it may have already been decided they would be protected and weren't brought up due to numbers. Anybody buy that?

[ashbury]

Maybe, but that's what guys like TJ McFarland and Mike Minor got last year.

Unless b-r.com is mistaken, McFarland earns under a million; he might in line for a raise via arbitration. Minor was a starting pitcher until 2017 and was signed by Texas as a starter again, so he doesn't seem like a strong comp. Did you have some other pitchers in mind instead?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Unless b-r.com is mistaken, McFarland earns under a million; he might in line for a raise via arbitration. Minor was a starting pitcher until 2017 and was signed by Texas as a starter again, so he doesn't seem like a strong comp. Did you have some other pitchers in mind instead?

 

Yup, looked at McFarland wrong.  Tommy Hunter, Brandon Morrow, Juan Nicasio, Pat Neshek, and even our own Addison Reed are closer to that 3/27.  I would say Miller and Allen are both superior players in the eyes of GMs.  

 

I'm guessing they are both much closer to what Wade Davis or Greg Holland made.  If I had to guess, Miller probably gets something in the range of 4/50 and Allen maybe a shade under that. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[DocBauer]

My head is turning round and round with this topic! Between a post I made about a week ago, Nicks here, and all the various comments and suggestions...i still don't know that I have the answers. But I think we all realize how important the bullpen is, always, and even more in today's game. I still believe in strong SP, and I think history proves that to be true. But there are different ways to build a strong pitching staff, top to bottom, and even more recent history has shown this as well. Not that building a top bullpen is secondary, but I'm just not sure it's so easy to factor out a bullpen when there are still rotation questions.

 

Presumably, we have 4 SP in place: All Star and STILL improving Berrios, the very solid Gibson, a very nice piece if healthy in Pineda, and the solid Odorizzi, who is still best as the #5 SP due to pitches thrown and IP. My goodness, how much better is the rotation, and staff as a whole, if Romero keeps developing and building on his last two seasons? That's not even considering a major trade or FA signing. To be honest, I'm just not seeing that. (Though I would love it!) I'm seeing Romero, Mejia, and others auditioning for a SP slot, with the idea of an "opener" still a possibility. And who is to say Romero, Mejiam or someone else doesn't earn a spot and run with it? Or a couple months in, someone like Thorpe doesn't just grab the job?

 

My hope is, concentrating on the pen all by itself, is we can get by with a 7 man group. Damnit, but a 13 man staff just limits your roster so much!

 

We can complain all we want to about Molitor, his use of the pen, and the disappointment of the 2018 season and moves made that didn't pan out. But at the end of the day, Rodney wasn't really a bad sign. Neither was Duke. And Reed was our best signing, but as luck would have it, for whatever reason, also the most disappointing.

 

I am going to assume Reed, supposedly structurally sound, simply was bound to have a bad season with previous workload and over use by Molitor. I am also going to assume that what Hildenberger showed in his milb career, and his first 1 1/2 ML career is indicative of his true potential. This allows me to further assume that ONE of them will rebound in 2019.

 

Just throwing money to sign a player has proven no guarantees. But it sure doesn't always hurt either. And I truly believe there has been a shift in terms of FA dollars and years involved. (There will always be exceptions, and we will see a few thjs season for certain). And while I don't disagree with trades of quality prospects, I disdain trades of high ranked prospects for RP. (Really, really dislike the Pressly trade and hope they made the right move in the long term).

 

But the more I think things, I'm seeing one major signing. They just have to! But they need a second arm. Is that a trade for someone maybe about to break out? Or is it a second FA, like Reed last season, in the $7-9M range? (Full confession, I'm hoping for FA because they can afford it, and because I think we may have enough milb depth to make a major trade in the next 1/2 or so to make a deal).

 

I am very content to enter 2019 with (in no particular order):

 

FA

FA

May

Rogers

Reed/Hildenberger rebound

 

That's 5 of 7 spots.

 

We need another LH, I'm presuming, and one additional arm, possibly a long or middle guy.

 

I say again, Mejia deserves a chance at the rotation, and will get a shot. He's in the pen, if not the rotation. Problem is, Moya and Vasquez are behind him. Both show promise, but Mejia just appears to have better stuff. (Is the rotation strong enough to let him relieve)?

 

The long/middle/mop-up guy never gets enough credit. They can actually be valuable, though you always hope they are better than just fodder. Magill has the FB and slider to excell at that spot if he can lower his BB and HR. Ditto for flier Drake.

 

Still discouraged the team didn't take harder, or any, looks at Curtiss, Reed, and maybe Anderson for the close of the season. But if you could tell me one of Hildenberger or Reed would rebound in 2019, and they would make a big and quality FA signing, and our biggest concern would be the 7th RP, I'd have to pinch myself.

[Mike Sixel]

Pineda hasn't pitched in a year, I hope no one is assuming he's there for sure next year.....

 

If all you ever sign is bargain RPs to one year deals, you need to do that year after year...what are the odds you are going to pick right? Move some of these mediocre SPs to RP, and let them loose. Sign a legit RP that you believe in to a multi-year deal. Then sign a flyer. But stop looking for guys trying to re-establish their value. 

[Vanimal46]

Pineda hasn't pitched in a year, I hope no one is assuming he's there for sure next year.....

 

If all you ever sign is bargain RPs to one year deals, you need to do that year after year...what are the odds you are going to pick right? Move some of these mediocre SPs to RP, and let them loose. Sign a legit RP that you believe in to a multi-year deal. Then sign a flyer. But stop looking for guys trying to re-establish their value.

If Pineda isn't healthy and can't be relied on it's a terrible signing. He was on pace to pitch a little in September until he tore his meniscus. Nothing that should affect him long term. 2019 was always the play for him. I'm expecting him to be in the MLB rotation or bullpen.