Article: Offseason Primer: Twins Need to Be Prepared to Pivot from Buxton and Sano

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Just curious - what is the actual age when "so-and-so is only X years old" stops being a reasonable rationalization? Does the number of consecutive years it is used matter?

 

I'm guessing 27 is still the make or break year, even though some guys break out after that. 

[Riverbrian]

 

 

He was dumped by the Yankees. Not the worst thing, but understand what this means. Most other teams dumping him would mean that his chances of steady contribution anywhere are almost nil. The Yankees dumping him doesn't mean that, because the Yankees have stars and really good players. But there's no way that the Yankees just dump a first division starting outfielder. 

 

 

The A's dumped Max Muncy. They are kicking themselves right now. 

The Cards would love to Voit back. 

The Astros dumped JD Martinez.

The Mets dumped Justin Turner. 

The Brewers dumped Scooter Gennett

The Indians dumped Jesus Aguilar

The Giants threw in Francisco Liriano. 

The Twins dumped David Ortiz and Aaron Hicks(kinda) as you mentioned. 

 

I'm not claiming that Cave will be any of those guys but teams make mistakes like this all the time. I'm not even claiming that Max Muncy will be one of those guys in the future but Max will be given a fair shot to try again next year. 

 

Personally... I am long past the point of believing that any team has this down cold. I no longer believe that causalities of other organizations is some sort of indicator of future. I believe the margins are razor thin and I believe that opportunity is the key to success or failure and I believe that players get blocked watching some guy with potential struggle wayyy too often... especially in Minnesota.  

 

40 man roster pressure forces teams to make these razor thin decisions constantly and sometimes they spit out the wrong guy. 

 

If Cave beats out Buxton... Cave gets the playing time as far as I'm concerned. 

 

[Jacksson]

Each and every Twin who is on the 40 man roster And any Twin projected to the 40 man roster needs to be given an off season to do list. The organization needs to follow-up with each one to ensure that they are indeed working on said list. The Twin's organization needs to have a "PLAN" for each of those players.

[TheLeviathan]

Just curious - what is the actual age when "so-and-so is only X years old" stops being a reasonable rationalization? Does the number of consecutive years it is used matter?

TK used to say 1,000 PA's is the time to make judgements. I think that is a good bar in general.

Edited October 5, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[bird]

 

Sano and Buxton are two different cases and should not be treated the same. 

 

Apples and pineapples.

 

I think everyone understands that their productivity problems differ. I contend that the Twins need to have the same goal for them, which is to identify the barriers to productivity and remove them to the best of their ability, and then pretty much sink or swim with what they give you for 2018.

 

No one has a grip right now on exactly what those obstacles to performance are. Falvey and Levine have said as much. I think you're understating and oversimplifying the problem when you say Sano is just fine when he's healthy and in shape. Despite the overall career numbers mentioned, Sano has been wildly erratic and he's had some stretches at the plate where you're left wondering when he had the frontal lobotomy. I think too many times he'd be the last player you'd want to see come up with a bat in his hand, times when his cluelessness had nothing to do with being out of shape or injured. Although I certainly could be wrong about this, we heard plenty of comments from Paulie and others criticizing his approach that hint that his hitting issues go beyond the physical.

 

Personally, while I agree that Sano's offensive talent is superior to Buxtons when you gauge it by the measurements you used, I'm not sure solving his issues is any less of a challenge than solving Buxton's.

Edited October 5, 2018 by birdwatcher

[USAFChief]

This is the perfect time to move Sano to first base. The position is open, and while we'd all like to see him remain at 3rd, it's time to just bite the bullet, put him somewhere permanently, and let the process work itself out. He'll either hit, or he won't. That's where his value is at anyway.

 

He'll have fewer physical demands (and the rod in his leg isn't going anywhere), and perhaps can just worry about hitting.

 

Perhaps 150 games/yr at first is physically possible. I wonder if we'll ever see that at third. The simple truth is, the Twins need a healthy and productive Sano in the middle of their lineup, there really aren't many decent alternative. Put him there for the next couple years and let it play out. If he fails, that's bad, but at least they'll know, and hopefully there won't be all these other issues on the side. 

 

And truthfully, without both Buxton and Sano performing pretty well, I don't see how the Twins get anywhere over the next few seasons. They need help, of course, but there just aren't enough way above average players on hand to overcome these two failing.

[Thrylos]

 

Career bWAR:
Sano: 5.0
Buxton 6.9

Defense, baserunning, and position matter too.

 

WAR is positional.  It uses different constants for different positions.   Thus comparing centerfielders with third basemen is like comparing applesauce with guacamole.

Edited October 5, 2018 by Thrylos

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Of 458 MLB players who had 90 PA or more, Buxton was 457th in OPS.

He was 458th in wRC+ and wOBA. Dead last.

He is a great fielder, but something extraordinary needs to happen with his bat in order for him to be an asset to this team. No team in the AL can afford to have an automatic out in the lineup.

 

*edit - he was 457th in all 3 categories. Alas...

How about requiring Buxton to learn how to bunt better in spring training and then insist that he do so   at least once a game.? Would that be extraordinary enough? With his speed, I think so.

Edited October 6, 2018 by tarheeltwinsfan

[Riverbrian]

 

How about requiring Buxton to learn how to bunt better in spring training and then insist that he do so   at least once a game.? Would that be extraordinary enough? With his speed, I think so.

 

I don't know about the once a game requirement but he certainly has to let the other team know that the club is in his bag and he knows how to use it. 

 

He's a pull hitter. Making a 3B creep up out of respect will open up more space to shoot balls through. 

 

First and foremost though. Contact... the guy has to improve his contact rate immensely. 

[jorgenswest]

If anyone is projecting Cave based on his OPS and WAR they should add that the sample in his half season is not enough to be reliable.

 

His strike out and walk ratios should be a concern. We have to wonder if he can hit lefties well. Scaling his numbers to a full season makes even less sense when his data is disproportionately skewed to right handed pitching.

 

He is a reasonable fall back option for Kepler or Buxton but his OPS/WAR do not project reliably forward.

[Thrylos]

 

If anyone is projecting Cave based on his OPS and WAR they should add that the sample in his half season is not enough to be reliable.

His strike out and walk ratios should be a concern. We have to wonder if he can hit lefties well. Scaling his numbers to a full season makes even less sense when his data is disproportionately skewed to right handed pitching.

He is a reasonable fall back option for Kepler or Buxton but his OPS/WAR do not project reliably forward.

 

I hope that you realize that the size of Buxton's "good" sample is even smaller than Cave's...

[jorgenswest]

 

I hope that you realize that the size of Buxton's "good" sample is even smaller than Cave's...

I do know that both his strike out rate and walk rates over his full 2017 season were better than Cave's 2018 rates. I do know that he is far superior defensively. I would guess if you could go back and pull a sample from the end of the 2017 season back to match Cave's sample size he would have more WAR but I don't think WAR should support any argument at that sample. I do know that Buxton's sample would not be selective like Cave's where his data is skewed due to sitting disproportionately against left handed pitching.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

If anyone is projecting Cave based on his OPS and WAR they should add that the sample in his half season is not enough to be reliable.

His strike out and walk ratios should be a concern. We have to wonder if he can hit lefties well. Scaling his numbers to a full season makes even less sense when his data is disproportionately skewed to right handed pitching.

He is a reasonable fall back option for Kepler or Buxton but his OPS/WAR do not project reliably forward.

 

This isn't quite fair to Jake Cave. 

 

You are absolutely correct when you say that his sample is not reliable. 

 

But then you go on to say that he does not project reliably forward? Based on an unreliable sample?

 

You were correct... the sample is not reliable. 

 

Buxton on the other hand... 979 AB's... He's entering arbitration. Much more reliable data in my opinion. 

[jorgenswest]

This isn't quite fair to Jake Cave. 

 

You are absolutely correct when you say that his sample is not reliable. 

 

But then you go on to say that he does not project reliably forward? Based on an unreliable sample?

 

You were correct... the sample is not reliable. 

 

Buxton on the other hand... 979 AB's... He's entering arbitration. Much more reliable data in my opinion.

 

My objection is using slash stats and WAR to support an argument for or against Cave’s future value. WAR does a good job of talking about the past but at his sample helps little looking forward.

 

The Twins need to look forward and there are good reasons (strike outs and walks) to be concerned about both bats. The one valuable asset to count on is Buxton’s defense.

[Riverbrian]

 

My objection is using slash stats and WAR to support an argument for or against Cave’s future value. WAR does a good job of talking about the past but at his sample helps little looking forward.

The Twins need to look forward and there are good reasons (strike outs and walks) to be concerned about both bats. The one valuable asset to count on is Buxton’s defense.

 

On that we are agreed. Just making sure you were not trying to have it both ways. 

 

I'm just in a "what are you doing for us right now" mode and Cave is doing much more right now. 

 

Honestly... Cave has options so we have time with him... Rochester would be the perfect place to start 2019.

 

I'd like to see the Twins bring in a bigger splashier OF name.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

I'd be fine with Nelson Cruz for DH... He may be aging, but he's aged quite well. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

This. Hurts... Badly, it hurts. I am not ready to punt on Buxton-Sano. They need at least two more years. There is no other future at third base and Buxton's defense is enough alone to play him every day.

I know, right?   Since when do you pivot from the best defender in baseball and a young bat that made the all star team in 2017 with 28 homers in 2/3 of a season?  I don't get all the hate for two guys that played with injuries and had off seasons. They will be back and those who say they should be ditched will be bragging about having watched them to their grand kids 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[Kelly Vance]

 

I don't know about the once a game requirement but he certainly has to let the other team know that the club is in his bag and he knows how to use it. 

 

He's a pull hitter. Making a 3B creep up out of respect will open up more space to shoot balls through. 

 

First and foremost though. Contact... the guy has to improve his contact rate immensely. 

One of the best ways to increase your contact rate is to stop trying to pull every damn pitch you see. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I know, right?   Since when do you pivot from the best defender in baseball and a young bat that made the all star team in 2017 with 28 homers in 2/3 of a season?  I don't get all the hate for two guys that played with injuries and had off seasons. They will be back and those who say they should be ditched will be bragging about having watched them to their grand kids 

 

No one is hating on them.  No one is suggesting we outright "ditch" them, but the team should be ready to deal with the possibility that 2019 looks like 2018.  

 

If it does, these two are no longer cornerstones.  Or at least can't be counted on in that fashion.

[Riverbrian]

 

One of the best ways to increase your contact rate is to stop trying to pull every damn pitch you see. 

 

I agree with this as well. If Buxton would stop trying to jerk outside breaking pitches into the left field bleachers for a 5 run homer with the bases empty. 

 

I believe he would become immediately the player we want him to be. 

 

That's the light switch in my opinion. 

[ashbury]

but at it's core a development year.  

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BdGLQ_ft7aQ/UMPR5GEB0pI/AAAAAAAASzQ/Ank_qBwpqSI/s400/b5352.gif

 

Oh no - not another development year.

[USAFChief]

I agree with this as well. If Buxton would stop trying to jerk outside breaking pitches into the left field bleachers for a 5 run homer with the bases empty.

 

I believe he would become immediately the player we want him to be.

 

That's the light switch in my opinion.

I dont think that's the problem. If he were hitting 3 hoppers to short on outside pitches, then maybe.

 

His problem is pitch recognition and making ANY kind of contact.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

In view of Sano's most recent "problem", I find the title to this article prophetic.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I agree with this as well. If Buxton would stop trying to jerk outside breaking pitches into the left field bleachers for a 5 run homer with the bases empty. 

 

I believe he would become immediately the player we want him to be. 

 

That's the light switch in my opinion. 

Plus, Riv, he has the speed to hit it in the gap to right and end up with a standing up triple. With his speed, he should lead the league in triples. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

No one is hating on them.  No one is suggesting we outright "ditch" them, but the team should be ready to deal with the possibility that 2019 looks like 2018.  

 

If it does, these two are no longer cornerstones.  Or at least can't be counted on in that fashion.

They are still young, and lost a season to injury. Look back and watch those games where Buck was running hard, with a broken toe.  I'm still all in on these kids. Loyalty is a door that swings both ways. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

In view of Sano's most recent "problem", I find the title to this article prophetic.

Well, we will see.  First reports are often garbled. If he was drunk and disorderly, he should be retroactively named a member of the Cardinals Gas House Gang and suspended for a while on the personal conduct clause. 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[TheLeviathan]

 

They are still young, and lost a season to injury. Look back and watch those games where Buck was running hard, with a broken toe.  I'm still all in on these kids. Loyalty is a door that swings both ways. 

 

Yes - it swings both ways.  They both have been given opportunity - now that loyalty needs to start paying dividends.  Either they can be productive big leaguers or we have to move on.   That's the point of this, please don't build any strawmen out of what people are saying.  

[Platoon]

As I write this, Sanos future is clouded by his late night driving escapades. But to address the original piece by Tom.? A backup plan to replace Sano and Buxton. That's in theory a sound idea, and in practice seemingly possible. But what exactly will we be replacing? You can replace last years Sano and Buxton easily, frankly the Twins did with Astudillo, Cave, LaMarre, Kepler, Grossman, Adrainza, et al. You can even upgrade that group a notch or two if you want. What you cannot do is replace what Sano and Buxton were to be. Generational power at third, and a Mike a Trout clone in CF, with better defense. There is no plan for that. Great teams are built on great young talents maturing and fulfilling their promise. Then you fill in around them. Someone to fill in FOR them is not available. If Jake Cave and EE replace Buxton and Sano, you will have competent MLB players standing at those positions. You will also have yet another, at best .500 baseball team. That's sadly an inescapable reality.

[Riverbrian]

 

I dont think that's the problem. If he were hitting 3 hoppers to short on outside pitches, then maybe.

His problem is pitch recognition and making ANY kind of contact.

 

Actually making contact and pulling off the ball for a 3 hopper would be progress. 

 

If it's pitch recognition... I'm not sure how to fix that. We might as well start auditioning CF's.

 

Getting hot at the end of 2017 gives me hope that he can recognize and be disciplined. 

 

If he's trying to park everything. That can be fixed quickly. Like turning on a light switch. Just stop doing it. 

 

When I watch... His upper cut is pretty severe.

 

Launch Angle might kill him. Kind of like that guy in softball who hit a home run once and then spent the next month popping out to short with those big mighty swings. 

 

I'd like to see him simply level off that swing and try to keep his bat in the zone a little longer. 

 

May or May not work... Thank God we have coaches other than I to work with him. 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

As I write this, Sanos future is clouded by his late night driving escapades. But to address the original piece by Tom.? A backup plan to replace Sano and Buxton. That's in theory a sound idea, and in practice seemingly possible. But what exactly will we be replacing? You can replace last years Sano and Buxton easily, frankly the Twins did with Astudillo, Cave, LaMarre, Kepler, Grossman, Adrainza, et al. You can even upgrade that group a notch or two if you want. What you cannot do is replace what Sano and Buxton were to be. Generational power at third, and a Mike a Trout clone in CF, with better defense. There is no plan for that. Great teams are built on great young talents maturing and fulfilling their promise. Then you fill in around them. Someone to fill in FOR them is not available. If Jake Cave and EE replace Buxton and Sano, you will have competent MLB players standing at those positions. You will also have yet another, at best .500 baseball team. That's sadly an inescapable reality.

Agreed

 

Ball is in their court.