Article: MIN 11, DET 4: Bats Bust Out, Bullpen Shuts Out Detroit

[Tom Froemming]

Jake Odorizzi failed to record an out in the fourth inning for just the second time all season, but he got plenty of support. The bullpen pitched six shutout innings and lineup exploded for 11 runs, all of which were scored in the first five innings.

 

Congrats are in order for Paul Molitor, who picked up his 300th win as manager.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Odorizzi: 27 Game Score, 3.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 K, 54.7% strikes (41 of 75 pitches)

Home Runs: Field 2 (9), Austin (17)

Multi-Hit Games: Astudillo (3-for-5), Polanco (2-for-4, 3B, BB), Grossman (2-for-4, 2B, BB), Field (2-for-4, 2 HR), Gimenez (2-for-4)

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Duffey .212, Field .200, Austin .163, Grossman .152

WPA of -0.1 or lower: Odorizzi -.320

Download attachment: WinChart926.png

This was Odorizzi’s shortest start since June 23 and just the second time all season he failed to at least record an out in the fourth inning. Things got off on the wrong foot right out of the gate, as Odorizzi walked the leadoff man on four pitches then nearly gave up an inside-the-park home run to Christian Stewart. Jorge Polanco made a nice relay throw to nail him at the plate.

 

Odorizzi will end the year with a 4.49 ERA, the worst he’s posted over a full season in his career, but he also recorded 162 strikeouts in 164 1/3 innings pitched. That 8.9 K/9 is his highest rate since his rookie year back in 2014.

 

Odorizzi gives the Twins three pitchers with 160 punchouts this season, joining Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. Coming into tonight, the only three Twins pitchers who’ve reached that mark since Target Field opened are Ervin Santana (2017), Phil Hughes (2014) and Francisco Liriano (2010).

 

The last time the Twins had multiple pitchers reach 160 strikeouts was 1987 (Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven). To find the last time they had at least three pitchers reach that mark was in 1967 when they had four guys accomplish the feat (Dean Chance, Jim Kaat, Dave Boswell and Jim Merritt).

 

As soon as Odorizzi exited, this game turned around. The bullpen held down Detroit, and in the meantime, the Twins’ bats heated up. Tyler Duffey earned the win, pitching two no-hit innings. Andrew Vasquez turned in a perfect inning of his own in the sixth and Addison Reed pitched a scoreless seventh before John Curtiss and Matt Belisle each turned in a perfect inning to finish things off.

 

Tyler Austin hit a two-run home run in the first inning. Johnny Field hit a solo blast in the second and added a two-run homer in the fourth. Jorge Polanco capped the five-run fifth inning with a bases-clearing triple.

 

Next Three Games

Thu vs. DET, 7:10 pm CT: TBD vs. Francisco Liriano

Fri vs. CHW, 1:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Fri vs. CHW, 7:10 pm CT: Chase De Jong vs. Lucas Giolito

 

Last Three Games

DET 4, MIN 2: Mauer Reaches Milestone, Hildenberger Flops

MIN 5, OAK 1: Gibby’s Arm, Cave’s Bat and Adrianza’s Glove Lift Twins to Victory

OAK 3, MIN 2: Willians Astudillo Collects Three More Hits

 

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[DocBauer]

End of the season, and most of us are in a "meh, who cares" attitude. But the truth is, we really do care. I have a few thoughts to toss out:

 

1] Odorizzi's season has been mediocre. Can he be better in 2019? Absolutely. Is he a decent/quality 5th SP. Yes, he is. Could his overall stuff and SO ability play up even better as a set up man and potential closer even? I believe it could, and I wish someone would make that move and convince him that he should make and embrace that move.

 

2] Why I he'll can't Duffey do what he did, and has shown he can do, more often? Scared as he'll We're going to let him go and he'll figure it out somewhere else and become a quality RP for someone else.

 

3] I want to believe in Austin so badly! His milb career says he can hit and produce. Since coming to the Twins, he hasn't hit the best, but we've seen the power and potential. Between his time in N.Y. and Minnesota, he has 17 HR in 233AB. 2018 is his first extended playing time at the ML level. I want to believe he's a really nice piece we acquired in trade. Someone,please, convince me one way or another.

 

4] Very disappointed to see Astudillo wasn't catching tonight until I saw the box and realised he was starting at 3B! See he went 3 for 5 and didn't see or hear the play, but heard Dan and Corey say be made a great defensive play. I am SO on the bandwagon for him being on the 40 man and being the 25th-26th man on the roster.

 

5] Vasquez, Reed and Curtiss each got a full IP? WOW!

[carlito_b]

Matt belisle pitching and taking up a roster spot is hard to stomach..

[rdehring]

I want to see Odorizzi used as part of a big trade to get that top young starter, Doc.  Include he along with one of the four young starters currently getting experience.  Toss in a good upper level prospect and get someone that can be a big part of the staff for many years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Odorizzi will end the year with a 4.49 ERA, the worst he’s posted over a full season in his career, but he also recorded 162 strikeouts in 164 1/3 innings pitched. That 8.9 K/9 is his highest rate since his rookie year back in 2014.

 

Of course, in the context of the league non-pitcher K% jumping 1.8% since 2014, Odorizzi's 2018 increase may not be particularly meaningful.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I want to see Odorizzi used as part of a big trade to get that top young starter, Doc. Include he along with one of the four young starters currently getting experience. Toss in a good upper level prospect and get someone that can be a big part of the staff for many years.

The "good upper level prospect" in this equation would have to be Lewis or maybe Kiriloff. There is no way that Odorizzi, Gonsalves, and, say, Gordon could fetch a "top young starter that can be a big part of the staff for many years." I'm not even sure if that would be enough to rent an old starter.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Of course, in the context of the league non-pitcher K% jumping 1.8% since 2014, Odorizzi's 2018 increase may not be particularly meaningful.

The basic point I was trying to make was that it's not like all his numbers trended in the wrong direction this season.

 

I suppose a better way of doing that would be to say he shaved his FIP down from 5.43 in 2017 to 4.19 this season or that he went from being exactly replacement level per FanGraphs last year to a 2.6 WAR player this year. 

[big dog]

Very glad to see Curtis have a clean inning. That strike 3 curve on the inside corner was a beautiful pitch.

[big dog]

And Goodrum is 2-9 so far with no real harm done. Maybe his ExTwins Curse is lifting.

Danger: Jinx Warning

[Danchat]

1] Odorizzi's season has been mediocre. Can he be better in 2019? Absolutely. Is he a decent/quality 5th SP. Yes, he is. Could his overall stuff and SO ability play up even better as a set up man and potential closer even? I believe it could, and I wish someone would make that move and convince him that he should make and embrace that move.

 

But is a "decent" 5th SP worth about $8M that he's going to get in arbitration? They can afford it, but I feel like they could do better. I think we have enough 5th starters and enough depth, so I'd like to see if they can upgrade at one of those spots. 

 

 

3] I want to believe in Austin so badly! His milb career says he can hit and produce. Since coming to the Twins, he hasn't hit the best, but we've seen the power and potential. Between his time in N.Y. and Minnesota, he has 17 HR in 233AB. 2018 is his first extended playing time at the ML level. I want to believe he's a really nice piece we acquired in trade. Someone,please, convince me one way or another.

He looks like the type of guy who will hit .220-230 with 30-35 HRs a season if he gets enough PAs. It depends if that's the type of guy you're looking for - it'd be quite the departure from Mauer's opposite approach.

[jimmer]

Odorizzi's 2018 season FIP: 4.19.  Gibson's: 4.18.  Both gave us 2.6 fWAR. So many gush over Gibson's season (saying he's turned the corner) and lament Odorizzi's season.

Edited September 27, 2018 by jimmer

[wabene]

Odorizzi's 2018 season FIP: 4.19. Gibson's: 4.18. Both gave us 2.6 fWAR. So many gush over Gibson's season (saying he's turned the corner) and lament Odorizzi's season.

In one fewer start Gibby has 191 innings vs Odo at 164. About an inning a start. 3.6 vs 1.5 war. I would say more was expected of Odo which could impact that impression.

[jimmer]

 

In one fewer start Gibby has 191 innings vs Odo at 164. About an inning a start. 3.6 vs 1.5 war. I would say more was expected of Odo which could impact that impression.

Yeah, IP is included in fWAR. And they were worth the same fWAR.

 

But yeah, no doubt Gibson helped the bullpen by pitching an inning more a game, but that doesn't change the dramatic difference in the perceptions of their respective seasons.  Gushing over own, slamming the other.  Not much difference overall, in how they performed on the mound.

 

And as far as expectations of Odorizzi, this is his 2nd best season ever. He was worth 3 times what he got paid this year. What were people expecting and how realistic were expectations?

Edited September 27, 2018 by jimmer

[puckstopper1]

 

The basic point I was trying to make was that it's not like all his numbers trended in the wrong direction this season.

 

I suppose a better way of doing that would be to say he shaved his FIP down from 5.43 in 2017 to 4.19 this season or that he went from being exactly replacement level per FanGraphs last year to a 2.6 WAR player this year. 

 

Tom:

This clarification is helpful.  Spending three paragraphs in your update singing the praises of our SPs striking out so many guys this year is hollow given the disaster that this season has turned out to be.

 

Disclaimer - I'm not a big K/9 stat fan (can you tell :-))

 

Finally - thanks to you and ALL the T.D. writers for your tireless efforts again this season.  I thoroughly enjoy the daily updates and the articles/blogs/forums.

 

[ashbury]

Odorizzi's 2018 season FIP: 4.19.  Gibson's: 4.18.  Both gave us 2.6 fWAR. So many gush over Gibson's season (saying he's turned the corner) and lament Odorizzi's season.

bWAR doesn't concur, 1.6 vs 3.5. And perhaps it's because Odorizzi put up similar FIP but in 26 fewer innings across 32 starts (actually 1 more start than Gibby). Odo puts approximately an extra inning of burden on the bullpen. That's really quite a differential in value delivered. No lamentation required.

[jimmer]

 

bWAR doesn't concur, 1.6 vs 3.5. And perhaps it's because Odorizzi put up similar FIP but in 26 fewer innings across 32 starts (actually 1 more start than Gibby). Odo puts approximately an extra inning of burden on the bullpen. That's really quite a differential in value delivered. No lamentation required.

bWAR uses runs allowed (earned and unearned), fWAR uses FIP.  There's your main difference.

 

Edited September 27, 2018 by jimmer

[ashbury]

bWAR uses runs allowed (earned and unearned), fWAR uses FIP.  There's your main difference.

You don't think a 15+% greater workload plays a part in a pitcher's value?

[jimmer]

 

You don't think a 15+% greater workload plays a part in a pitcher's value?

Some, but not the one that puts that much difference in WAR calculations.  fWAR takes into account IP difference in it's calculations.

Edited September 27, 2018 by jimmer

[USAFChief]

 

bWAR uses runs allowed (earned and unearned), fWAR uses FIP.  There's your main difference.

The main difference, according to Fangraphs: 

 

190 IP with 78 earned runs allowed

 

is equal to

 

164 IP with 82 earned runs allowed.

 

 

[ashbury]

Some, but not the one that puts that much difference in WAR calculations.  fWAR takes into account IP difference in it's calculations.

WAR = [[([(League “FIP” – “FIP”) / Pitcher Specific Runs Per Win] + Replacement Level) * (IP/9)] * Leverage Multiplier for Relievers] + League Correction

 

When FIP is about the same for two starters, and the innings pitched are very different, I don't quite see how the basic formula (above) would reach the conclusion of equal WAR. So it must be somewhere down in the arcana of the full formula, which is beyond my pay grade and mostly wouldn't differ for two teammates. I didn't spot what that would be. Maybe something screwy in the infield fly count.

[Danchat]

 

Yeah, IP is included in fWAR. And they were worth the same fWAR.

 

But yeah, no doubt Gibson helped the bullpen by pitching an inning more a game, but that doesn't change the dramatic difference in the perceptions of their respective seasons.  Gushing over own, slamming the other.  Not much difference overall, in how they performed on the mound.

 

And as far as expectations of Odorizzi, this is his 2nd best season ever. He was worth 3 times what he got paid this year. What were people expecting and how realistic were expectations?

3 times what he was paid? So Odorizzi's season was worth $18.9M? I've never liked the WAR to $$ model, if that's the one you're using.

 

The final stats aren't that far off from what I was thinking, but the number of short starts and 20+ pitch innings from this guy were brutal IMO. He's part of the reason why the bullpen had to throw more innings, leading to the over-usage of several relievers.

[jimmer]

WAR = [[([(League “FIP” – “FIP”) / Pitcher Specific Runs Per Win] + Replacement Level) * (IP/9)] * Leverage Multiplier for Relievers] + League Correction

 

When FIP is about the same for two starters, and the innings pitched are very different, I don't quite see how the basic formula (above) would reach the conclusion of equal WAR. So it must be somewhere down in the arcana of the full formula, which is beyond my pay grade and mostly wouldn't differ for two teammates. I didn't spot what that would be. Maybe something screwy in the infield fly count.

sorry I was talking about the difference in fWAR and BWAR. You gave bWAR numbers

[ashbury]

sorry I was talking about the difference in fWAR and BWAR. You gave bWAR numbers

Understood, but I was trying to get some kind of intuition about what fWAR values. Because it doesn't seem to be "going deep into games".