Article: DET 4, MIN 2: Mauer Reaches Milestone, Hildenberger Flops

[Tom Froemming]

I have a confession to make: I was rooting against Joe Mauer.

 

In my defense, it was only for a short time. I just really didn’t want him to become the Twins’ all-time leader in times on base while on the road, so I was pulling against him. But it was just one time, OK? And, you know, all the other kids were doing it …

 

Mauer ended up tying Harmon Killebrew for that distinction in Oakland, and wasted little time breaking the record at Target Field, leading off the bottom of the first inning with a single.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Stewart: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 64.0% strikes (48 of 75 pitches)

Home Runs: None

Multi-Hit Games: Mauer (2-for-4, BB), Polanco (2-for-5, 2B), Cave (2-for-4)

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Stewart .431

WPA of -0.1 or lower: Grossman -.134, May -.134, Forsythe -.182, Hildenberger -.507

Download attachment: WinChart925.png

It seems Joe is going to leave us all hanging on the whole retirement thing, but the milestone hit provided a great opportunity for him to be acknowledged by the home crowd.

Mauer ended the night 2-for-4 with a walk and scored both runs for the Twins.

 

Kohl Stewart was very good tonight, and has been really good this month. In four appearances, he’s only given up three earned runs on 10 hits and nine walks over 20 1/3 innings pitched (1.32 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). While it’s not like he’s exactly been dominant over that stretch, recording 13 strikeouts, he’s also only allowed one extra-base-hit, a double.

 

He relied heavily on his two-seamer tonight, as to be expected, and was excellent at getting strikes with that pitch. Of the 41 two-seam fastballs he threw (according to Baseball Savant), 30 were for strikes (73.2 percent). That allowed him to lean on his four other offerings more as show-me/chase pitches. He threw his changeup seven times, all of them ending up out of the strike zone.

 

Yes, a lot of Stewart’s success has come against some of the bottom teams in the league, but seeing his 500-pound fastball be effective against major leaguers and his other four pitches keep guys off balance is a very encouraging sign. He’ll definitely face some stiffer competition than he did tonight, but there’s also so much potential for Stewart to get better.

 

Things have to get better with Trevor Hildenberger, right?

 

He took over for Stewart in the eighth and allowed Detroit to tie the game on a Nicholas Castellanos RBI single, which was followed by a Niko Goodrum go-ahead single. Hildy yielded to Trevor May from there, but two more runs came in on a James McCann double.

 

All four runs were charged to Hildenberger, who has now given up 28 earned runs in his last 27 innings pitched. The fact that Hildy was pitching the eighth in a one-run game would indicate he’s been removed from the closer role.

 

Next Three Games

Wed vs. DET, 7:10 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Matthew Boyd

Thu vs. DET, 7:10 pm CT: TBD vs. Francisco Liriano

Fri vs. CHW, 1:10 pm CT & 7:10 pm CT: TBD

 

Last Three Games

MIN 5, OAK 1: Gibby’s Arm, Cave’s Bat and Adrianza’s Glove Lift Twins to Victory

OAK 3, MIN 2: Willians Astudillo Collects Three More Hits

OAK 7, MIN 6: Khrush Davis Walks Off Twins

 

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[rghrbek]

Love Hildy, but he seems to be very streaky.  Once he goes on one of these streaks maybe pitch in lower leverage situations?  Molitor using him a ton.

 

Count me as one of those who was pretty down on Stewart.  Nice to see improvement from him this year and success at the MLB level.  I am intruiged.

 

[h2oface]

I have always thought the berger was lucky. It seems to have run out. But that doesn't stop Molitor from exposing him over and over and over.... and over and over.

 

May is certainly failing his audition. It appears relief with men on base is not spelled M-A-Y.

 

500-pound fastball. That's funny! Perhaps Stewart just needed it to count - turn it on in the show. Detroit counts, right? But he also did it against Houston. That definitely counts.

 

Does pitching against the current Twins' lineup count for Turnbull?

[108Stitches]

Ok I have pissed on Kohl like a fire hydrant. But I have to hand it to the kid. He’s having a great month. If he can keep it going, he will have a lot of crow to serve those of us who thought he was done.

[Tomj14]

While I am against the opener, if Stewart can keep up this up, I wouldn't be against having him being the 5th starter next year doing this.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

No comment.

[rv78]

Another Manager blunder? Kohl who was pretty much lights out, gets pulled at 75 pitches for Hildenberger who has been awful lately. I don't understand the decision.

[laloesch]

 

Another Manager blunder? Kohl who was pretty much lights out, gets pulled at 75 pitches for Hildenberger who has been awful lately. I don't understand the decision.

 

yeah i don't get it either.  I still don't understand what this team is doing with the pen.  They have a couple of other options in AAA such as Jake Reed who had ANOTHER fine season down there.  The Front office must have forgotten about him or something.

[Linus]

It is strange they aren’t trying some different things in the pen. They have a lot of work to do in this area.

[mazeville]

One definite positive thing to take away from the past month is Kohl Stewart's performance. He's earned himself a shot at the rotation next year for sure. And good for him. 

[dbminn]

 

Another Manager blunder? Kohl who was pretty much lights out, gets pulled at 75 pitches for Hildenberger who has been awful lately. I don't understand the decision.

 

Stewart has thrown 145 innings in 2018, after only 82 IP in 2017. The FO probably doesn't want him to have a high pitch count this late in the season.

[rdehring]

Good to see Stewart get thru a game with no walks.  Was watching on a second tv while catching the opening episodes of all the NCIS programs, saw he was close to walks a few times but didn't put them on.

 

And even though this is another game against Detroit, he should be putting himself into position to battle for that #5 spot in spring.  Wouldn't be surprised if he begins the season at Rochester.  Or maybe he has impressed enough to be part of a package for a very good young starter who battles for the #2 spot in the rotation.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Another Manager blunder? Kohl who was pretty much lights out, gets pulled at 75 pitches for Hildenberger who has been awful lately. I don't understand the decision.

It's weird, Molly seems to have a really difficult time trusting relievers, but then once he does, it's ride or die. He'll keep rolling with that guy even through a big slump.

 

Some of that "stick to your guns" mentality can be productive over the course of a long season, but it's clear this is more than just a blip on the radar for Trevor. He's really fighting it right now.

 

yeah i don't get it either.  I still don't understand what this team is doing with the pen.  They have a couple of other options in AAA such as Jake Reed who had ANOTHER fine season down there.  The Front office must have forgotten about him or something.

I would've liked to see Reed get a look over some of these other guys on the roster, but, it's fair to point out he's had a 4.0 BB/9 rate in the minors the past two seasons and his 2.18 K:BB ratio over that span is not very promising. Still, it'll be a shame if he moves on to another org without at least getting an audition with the Twins.

[Tomj14]

  Or maybe he has impressed enough to be part of a package for a very good young starter who battles for the #2 spot in the rotation.

I like that thinking, wish Gordon and Gonzo would have done the same this year.

[PDX Twin]

Do I remember some discussion that Hildenberger was tipping pitches earlier in the season, or was that someone else? If that's the explanation, it sure seems fixable.

[USAFChief]

Another Manager blunder? Kohl who was pretty much lights out, gets pulled at 75 pitches for Hildenberger who has been awful lately. I don't understand the decision.

I’m as critical of Molitor’s pitching decisions as anyone, but in this case, the Twins used an opener, which is intended to limit the primary pitcher’s exposure to the top of the order, third time through.

 

Moya faced five hitters in the first. Enter Stewart, who faces 21 hitters over six innings. The opener strategy worked to perfection.

 

The problem, as I see it, was Hildenberger. Or, as Tom points out, Molitor’s use of him. They got more than could be expected from Stewart.

[jmlease1]

 

I’m as critical of Molitor’s pitching decisions as anyone, but in this case, the Twins used an opener, which is intended to limit the primary pitcher’s exposure to the top of the order, third time through.

Moya faced five hitters in the first. Enter Stewart, who faces 21 hitters over six innings. The opener strategy worked to perfection.

The problem, as I see it, was Hildenberger. Or, as Tom points out, Molitor’s use of him. They got more than could be expected from Stewart.

 

It's an interesting question: how locked in should you be to the "avoid the 3rd time through" strategy? How do you evaluate how much of a pitcher's struggles the 3rd time through against a team's best hitters is due to fatigue or familiarity? If it's familiarity, then a fairly rigid approach makes sense. If it's due more to fatigue, then you have to think about it a little more, especially if a guy is at 75 pitches and rolling along.

 

nice to see Kohl Stewart have another good outing, though obviously September production is always a little suspect (see also Parmelee, Chris). The decline in BBs is exactly what he needs to be doing and it's nice to see how close his FIP is to his ERA. he's a very interesting case right now, and I think the Twins were fortunate he slipped through Rule 5 last year.

[nicksaviking]

I hope Kyle Gibson has a nice long talk with Stewart this off season about the dangers of getting too comfortable with being a sinkerballer whilst having shaky command. They're very similar pitchers as far as repertoire, velocity and control goes. If they follow the same trajectory, it sure would be nice if the Twins could simply avoid a few of those wasted years and just cut to the good part.

[Doomtints]

Hildy is very feast or famine. I bet if we take the time to look at the matchups we will see the reason why. Molitor should give that a try.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's an interesting question: how locked in should you be to the "avoid the 3rd time through" strategy? How do you evaluate how much of a pitcher's struggles the 3rd time through against a team's best hitters is due to fatigue or familiarity? If it's familiarity, then a fairly rigid approach makes sense. If it's due more to fatigue, then you have to think about it a little more, especially if a guy is at 75 pitches and rolling along.

 

nice to see Kohl Stewart have another good outing, though obviously September production is always a little suspect (see also Parmelee, Chris). The decline in BBs is exactly what he needs to be doing and it's nice to see how close his FIP is to his ERA. he's a very interesting case right now, and I think the Twins were fortunate he slipped through Rule 5 last year.

 

Research shows it is almost totally familiarity, and not fatigue. So, rigid. Plus, they got what they want/need.....6 innings from the primary. 

[jtkoupal]

Gotta wonder if Hildenberger is fighting through an injury. He has had a lot of bad outings in the 2nd half. Really, he hasn't been good at all in the second half (8.65 ERA, 5.92 FIP)

 

On the bright side, his xFIP is 3.76 and K/9 is 9.00 in the second half... so perhaps he's been largely unlucky, but the BB and HR rates have been pretty bad in the second half.

[ashbury]

Last night shows (again) why it's hard to be in favor of Molitor staying as manager. 1-0 game where the primary pitcher is a young guy getting his feet wet. You want to put in your best relievers to give that guy the best chance to feel good about himself and build his confidence.

It would be a lot easier if the offense wasn't making it so that 4 runs will beat you.

 

Research shows it is almost totally familiarity, and not fatigue.

Do you recall what kind of statistical technique they used to separate the two? They are so highly correlated.

[Mike Sixel]

This one seems to show the other!

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/28506/baseball-therapy-is-there-a-times-through-the-order-penalty/

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/22156/baseball-proguestus-everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-the-times-through-the-order-penalty/

 

this one rebuts the first one, politely...

https://mglbaseball.com/2016/02/29/does-familiarity-breed-contempt-or-is-fatigue-not-the-best-pillow/

 

[Number3]

Twins lost and are 9-13 in September. Comparing Mauer to Killebrew is like comparing a goat to a bull. 2 different breeds of animals and I would bet that Killebrew could not have cared less what his total base count for his career was and could not have told you what it was if you asked him.

[ashbury]

Twins lost and are 9-13 in September. Comparing Mauer to Killebrew is like comparing a goat to a bull. 2 different breeds of animals and I would bet that Killebrew could not have cared less what his total base count for his career was and could not have told you what it was if you asked him.

Joe's not the hitter Harmon was, but this is probably going too far. Harmon would get on base at a clip in the high .300s when his leagues' average was in the low .300s, and he was the league leader in walks several times. I suppose one can lead the league in something bad without intending to, but leading the league in something positive indicates purpose.

 

Clearly his walks were due to being pitched extraordinarily carefully, moreso than some superhuman batting eye, but it indicates that he didn't give in to the pitcher when he wasn't being given good pitches to hit.

 

OBP was a known statistic even back in the day. I'd be interested in seeing an interview in which Harmon was asked about his walk totals. I bet his thoughtfulness on the topic would surprise some. I'd be surprised if he didn't feel that his walks were helping his team.

 

And so I bet if he were here, to be asked, he'd praise Joe for getting on base the way he has done.

 

He might also have slipped Joe the needle about power.

[USAFChief]

It's an interesting question: how locked in should you be to the "avoid the 3rd time through" strategy? How do you evaluate how much of a pitcher's struggles the 3rd time through against a team's best hitters is due to fatigue or familiarity? If it's familiarity, then a fairly rigid approach makes sense. If it's due more to fatigue, then you have to think about it a little more, especially if a guy is at 75 pitches and rolling along.

 

nice to see Kohl Stewart have another good outing, though obviously September production is always a little suspect (see also Parmelee, Chris). The decline in BBs is exactly what he needs to be doing and it's nice to see how close his FIP is to his ERA. he's a very interesting case right now, and I think the Twins were fortunate he slipped through Rule 5 last year.

It is an interesting question.

 

My own bias is—and this is long held, and unrelated to the opener/primary pitcher idea—is a strong preference to get the starter out BEFORE he runs into trouble rather than after. So I will say that in this case, with a pitcher such as Stewart, if you get six shutout innings, and he’s given you as much or more than you could have hoped for, turn a clean inning over to the pen, and ask them to do what you have them there for.

 

I don’t know what would have happened in this specific case, but over time, I think that’s the way to go.

[Riverbrian]

 

It's weird, Molly seems to have a really difficult time trusting relievers, but then once he does, it's ride or die. He'll keep rolling with that guy even through a big slump.

 

Some of that "stick to your guns" mentality can be productive over the course of a long season, but it's clear this is more than just a blip on the radar for Trevor. He's really fighting it right now.

 

 

 

You hit the nail on the head. This is my criticism of Paul Molitor. I don't know if this is Paul or a management directive that he has to follow or if it's a collective agreement... but this is my criticism to whomever is making these decisions. I assume it is Molitor because he did the same thing in 2016 when his supervisors were elsewhere... Kepler and Polanco were called up as backups and benched while the chosen starters played the team into a first pick overall in 2017.  

 

Players are allowed to fail for long stretches before adjustments are finally made (if ever). The position players, the bullpen, the rotation, he seems to lock them into roles and then he throws away the key. We went down with the ship.

 

I'm not considering the argument that there is nobody else to turn to because we get the same amount of roster spaces as every other team.If a manager doesn't utilize those roster spaces when the guys he is utilizing are performing woefully that will never be an excuse in my eyes. Even the worm will turn. Put up a fight. We had players that needed some time off and still do. 

 

McGill was being utilized to near full extent until Phil Hughes was traded and then McGill was given the long reliever job and he then became severely under utilized waiting to pitch multiple innings in a lopsided contest. Reed and Pressly were going through a long stretch of struggles and they remain the set-up guys throughout. Hildenberger now going through a long stetch of struggle and he remains a go to guy even though there are multiple September options to try instead. 

 

Astudillo is brought up as a utility guy and never catches... Then he is brought up as a catcher and he is never utility. 

 

Morrison, Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Wilson playing well below replacement level for a long stretch and in the lineup every day while players who were out-performing them are forced to watch them not perform from the bench. 

 

I don't know who is responsible but I do feel that they can change. I've seen Molitor convert to the new concept of using an opener so I know he can convert to something else. If Molitor or whomever in the front office can commit to not going down with the ship. I have no problem with them coming back next year for 2019.

 

If they can't... I will personally want someone else to take over the job.

 

It doesn't mean that you bench Dozier when he is struggling so Petit can play... But it does mean that Dozier has to check the lineup card to see if he is on it until he turns it around. 

 

 

25 Guys who can play and 25 guys who are utilized and 25 guys in honest to god competition for the bulk of the playing time. I'm watching other teams do it successfully so this approach is no longer unprecedented.

 

I'm now watching the Indians add Josh Donaldson to 3B which moved Jose Ramirez to 2B and Jason Kipnis to CF. Ramirez and Kipnis have some experience at 2B and CF (although Kipnis CF experience is pretty limited) but... neither player got reps during the season but they are making the move now to accommodate Josh Donaldson right now during the home stretch. If the Indians would have been committed to flexibility all year long, they could have been preparing for a Josh Donaldson type acquisition all year long but instead... they wait until the end of August to slam it all into place.  

 

25 guys who can play... Roster Flexibility... No tolerance of sub .200 BA or sub .700 OPS numbers.

 

I will settle for nothing less. 

 

Hildenberger is just another example as we close out 2018 and turn our eyes to 2019. 

[Riverbrian]

Kohl Stewart... even when he had the rough start... I could see with my eyeballs that he has stuff. Incredible movement that will make it hard for guys to square him up. I liked him from day one and I believe he has a future. 

 

Gonsalves... still needs to show me something. 

 

Stewart is ahead of Gonsalves on my personal depth chart. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

It is an interesting question.

My own bias is—and this is long held, and unrelated to the opener/primary pitcher idea—is a strong preference to get the starter out BEFORE he runs into trouble rather than after. So I will say that in this case, with a pitcher such as Stewart, if you get six shutout innings, and he’s given you as much or more than you could have hoped for, turn a clean inning over to the pen, and ask them to do what you have them there for.

I don’t know what would have happened in this specific case, but over time, I think that’s the way to go.

 

100% agree.

[TheLeviathan]

I think this conversation should be one people remember in criticizing a manager.  We have two sides on the Stewart decision making rational arguments about a hypothetical situation.

 

It's a tough spot to be in to consistently predict which hypothetical is the one to go with.  I tend to side with Chief's perspective on the macro level, but that doesn't stop people from complaining on the micro.  Maybe it should temper it a bit though.