Article: 5 Things the Twins Absolutely Must Accomplish This Offseason

[jimbo92107]

Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Zack Littell, Lewis Thorpe, Adalberto Mejia. Those are the main internal candidates for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. 

 

We all saw Romero flash stuff that could dominate. We have seen Mejia look like a good mid rotation starter. Meanwhile, Gonsalves and Stewart appear to be shaking off their rookie nerves, and both look like viable future starters. I haven't seen Thorpe pitch, and Littell didn't impress me, but I guess the team likes him. 

 

I don't see a problem here. Four guys look ready to fill spots 1 through 4, and at least six guys are lined up to fill the fifth spot. This seems like enough pitching depth to eschew expensive free-agent deals, at least before the mid-season deadline in 2019. 

[Winston Smith]

Trade for an ace easy, most teams that have one can't wait to trade them away....

[mlhouse]

 

I don't take issue with much of the rest you said, but I don't like accepting major league losses at this stage of the rebuild that started way back in 2012. If AA or AAA isn't preparing the near-ready players for life in the majors, then address THAT. The minors are where players belong until they prove ready. If the competition there isn't quite stiff enough, it's the duty of the coaching staff to gently (or not so gently) point out to the stud prospect the ways he's sliding by and not doing what's necessary to succeed at the next level.

 

Other teams seem to have players come up and perform. I've been bothered a long time by the need for our youngsters to suffer through rookie jitters like May, Berrios and now Gonsalves demonstrated. Maybe Gonsalves has been stubborn and didn't listen when his AAA coach tried to tell him - if so, that's partly on the player but partly on the coach. I'm guilty of making assumptions and extrapolations here, but I don't think I'm way off base in this. Kohl Stewart expressed surprise at coming out from way out in the bullpen to make his second-inning start the other day - they've been doing the Opener in Rochester too - so where is the preparation, for all the quotidian little things that make up a major-leaguer's experience? It's more of a stretch to guess that Gonsalves is shocked to discover that major league hitters are less likely to go fishing at mediocre breaking pitches way down in the dirt, but all the evidence seems to point that way.

 

The problem is that is what you have to accept.  Way back in 2012 the team should have made the commitment I am speaking of.  Instead, they trotted guys like Jamey Carroll and Clete Thomas out there in a desperate attempt to be mediocre. ANd the team still lost while delaying the inevitable transition of their prospects that have been, for the most part, brought in piecemeal.  

 

Instead, COMMIT for the first time to rebuilding.    Find out who can play and who cannot play.  Think about that.  THis far into "rebuild" do we really have answers on a lot of players?

 

Take your lumps.  If the talent of our prospects is there, it will take some time and some losses but they will eventually become competitive and the rebuild and losses will more quickly go away.

 

 

[twinfan]

The infield a mess? Are you kidding? That's the best part of this team. We need starters (2) that we can count on. We need relievers (2) that we can count on. We need an outfielder or two who can hit the damn ball. If anything, we have too many infielders but most of them are decent. Not great (but who is) but decent. I expect Sano to bounce back with 25-30 homers. I think Buxton can catch anything near him and throw anyone out. But can he hit- even with all that speed. The other outfielders are mediocre at best and you need offense from your outfielders. We need a DH (unless Mauer comes back). I think they should try Moya as the closer. Or maybe even Mejia. Gonsalves? Not for me- and I'm a lefty. 

[twinfan]

Addison Russell on the Cubs might be available in trade and he would top my wish list if the Twins' minor league depth in pitching would be of interest.

 

Russell is suspended pending wife beating charges. I don't think anyone will touch him.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree with the ideas, executing them will be tough.

[jtkoupal]

 

So, then, what...a 14 man staff??

No. 4 regular starters. Skip the #5 starter spot (at least some of the time). When there needs to be a 5th starter, use two guys (i.e. Gonsalves and De Jong) and have one pitch 3-4 innings, then the next guy pitches 3-4 innings. 

 

One of the guys can get optioned after the game and the other can serve as the long man until his spot in the rotation is needed again. 

 

As I said, it's wonky, and I like the idea of signing an established starter more, but the Twins have enough depth to possibly make it work as well as an abundance of pitching prospects that could use some innings.

[Vanimal46]

Addison Russell on the Cubs might be available in trade and he would top my wish list if the Twins' minor league depth in pitching would be of interest.

 

Russell is suspended pending wife beating charges. I don't think anyone will touch him.

Way too early to say that definitively in this case...

[ashbury]

Instead, COMMIT for the first time to rebuilding. 

We have different definitions of rebuilding, so I think I'll confine myself to describing that difference and then move on. To me, the rebuild was committed to, the moment when Denard Span was traded for a low-minors pitcher in November 2012. Other moves in that vein came soon afterward. Terry Ryan would never utter the word "rebuild", but the plan was clear - acquire established major league talent for a 3 year interim period to tide the team over until a new wave of young players could begin to make their presence felt.

 

As long as the focus is on the future, making no moves that mortgage anything in favor of current results, that's a rebuild. The old front office and the new one have both operated generally along those lines.

 

In that light, it's not necessary to have a major league roster be devoid of established veterans for a certain period of time, to qualify as a rebuild. To me, that's a "Charlie Hustle" type of move by a front office, to showily demonstrate that they really are rebuilding - but using Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit types suffices, as an alternate means of covering that span of time. The hard work is always the acquisition of the young talent - how they get integrated at the major league level is a secondary consideration. As I said above, I don't see a lengthy period of bad results by top-end prospects when they reach the majors as particularly necessary, nor desirable, if AAA is firing on all cylinders.

 

Different teams do it differently.

[S.]

 

No. 4 regular starters. Skip the #5 starter spot (at least some of the time). When there needs to be a 5th starter, use two guys (i.e. Gonsalves and De Jong) and have one pitch 3-4 innings, then the next guy pitches 3-4 innings. 

 

One of the guys can get optioned after the game and the other can serve as the long man until his spot in the rotation is needed again. 

 

As I said, it's wonky, and I like the idea of signing an established starter more, but the Twins have enough depth to possibly make it work as well as an abundance of pitching prospects that could use some innings.

This kinda just seems like planning for your starter to have a bad start where they can only go 3-4 innings, and then using a long reliever to wrap up the game. It also seems like a bad use for rookies who you intend to be actual starters at some point, because their total innings are going to be crazy low and it'd be unreasonable to expect them to double their innings the next year or whenever you want them to be an actual starter. You also are really screwing with their game prep when you're having them be a starter 1/3 of the time, a 2nd string "starter" that comes in in the 3rd or 4th inning 1/3 of the time, and a long reliever mop up guy 1/3 of the time.

[MABB1959]

I would be happy next year having a consistent line-up.  Instead of a mix-match every single game.  I think getting a power hitting 1st and DH would fill most gaps.  We need to let Sano and Buxton improve or fail on a whole year of playing before we let them go.  Infield: Sano, Polanco, Lewis, at least and all star worthy 1st or DH or best both.  OF can be Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.  Starting pitching Berrios, Romero, Gibson, keep Santana, and find 2 more.  I don't think it should be Odorizzi.  Bullpen is hard to determine Rogers is the only memorable pitcher there.  

 

It has been years since they sent out the same line-up I miss those days. 

[stringer bell]

I'll scattergun here a bit--yes drop some dead wood on the 40-man! Granite,Petit, Duffey, Slegers, perhaps Curtiss or Busenitz, although I like the latter two's live arms. I like Meija, and think he definitely should be kept. Berrios is now an "All-Star" to me. I think it was borderline that he was named in the first place, and he's been lackluster most of the second half. That said, he's young and could become dominant. Sure, extend him, but don't expect an ace, at least not yet. Add a 1-3 starter, absolutely, and that will cost either money or talent. Corner infield depth--absolutely. I personally think Austin is a better hitter than what Sano has become and I don't know what happened to the guy who came up in mid-2015 (or the first third of 2017). There should be all kinds of doubts about Sano's durability as well as his ability after this year. We've seen more than glimpses, but less than sustained excellence. As for Buxton, how about a decent guaranteed contract (maybe two years) with performance bonuses that are good rewards for staying on the field. Again a half season (second half of '17) showed that he can do it.

[Mike Sixel]

Addison Russell on the Cubs might be available in trade and he would top my wish list if the Twins' minor league depth in pitching would be of interest.

 

Russell is suspended pending wife beating charges. I don't think anyone will touch him.

You want to root for a wife beater? I don't. If they trade for him, they lose me.

[jtkoupal]

 

This kinda just seems like planning for your starter to have a bad start where they can only go 3-4 innings, and then using a long reliever to wrap up the game. It also seems like a bad use for rookies who you intend to be actual starters at some point, because their total innings are going to be crazy low and it'd be unreasonable to expect them to double their innings the next year or whenever you want them to be an actual starter. You also are really screwing with their game prep when you're having them be a starter 1/3 of the time, a 2nd string "starter" that comes in in the 3rd or 4th inning 1/3 of the time, and a long reliever mop up guy 1/3 of the time.

That is a disadvantage to the strategy. It was proposed in Russell A. Carleton's "The Shift" in Chapter 4. The strategy exists in theory because many argue that there are not 150 guys that can be effective starting pitchers. Factor in injuries, and that number increases substantially over the course of a season, maybe to 180+. Those guys may be too highly-touted to experiment with this, which is why I prefer to target an established guy, but if that gets too expensive, I figured it would be logical to at least consider alternatives.

 

More realistically, The Opener could be used with some of these guys into next year. It has been working better as of late and I would like to see them continue with it.

[mlhouse]

 

We have different definitions of rebuilding, so I think I'll confine myself to describing that difference and then move on. To me, the rebuild was committed to, the moment when Denard Span was traded for a low-minors pitcher in November 2012. Other moves in that vein came soon afterward. Terry Ryan would never utter the word "rebuild", but the plan was clear - acquire established major league talent for a 3 year interim period to tide the team over until a new wave of young players could begin to make their presence felt.

 

As long as the focus is on the future, making no moves that mortgage anything in favor of current results, that's a rebuild. The old front office and the new one have both operated generally along those lines.

 

In that light, it's not necessary to have a major league roster be devoid of established veterans for a certain period of time, to qualify as a rebuild. To me, that's a "Charlie Hustle" type of move by a front office, to showily demonstrate that they really are rebuilding - but using Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit types suffices, as an alternate means of covering that span of time. The hard work is always the acquisition of the young talent - how they get integrated at the major league level is a secondary consideration. As I said above, I don't see a lengthy period of bad results by top-end prospects when they reach the majors as particularly necessary, nor desirable, if AAA is firing on all cylinders.

 

Different teams do it differently.

 

No, I think that we have a different definition of "commit".  Lets look at the Twins rebuild.  In 2010 the Twins finished with a 94-69 record, and with the exception of a single game wild card, the last playoff appearance.

 

In 2011, the Twins fell off the board, going 63-99.  To most, this significant fall off was unexpected, but it was real. 

 

In the offseason, the team should have concentrated on trying to rebuild.  Instead. they added 31 year old Ryan Doumit,  33 year old Josh Willingham, 38 year old Jamey Carroll.  The Twins finished 66-96 with just a single regular position player under the age of 25 (Ben Revere) and just two positional players with at least 200 abs under the age of 25 (Revere and Chris Parmelee).  On the staff, they had one starter start more than 10 games under 25 (Liam Hendricks) and 2 relievers with at least 40 appearances (Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson).

 

IN 2013, anthother 66-96 season, using these parameters the Twins had one posititional starter under 25 (Aaron Hicks) and two players with at least 200 abs (HIcks and Oswaldo Arcia).  One starter under 25 with at least 10 starts (Pedro Hernandez) and one reliever with at least 40 appearances (Ryan Pressley).

 

In 2014, the 4th consecutive season with at least 92 losses, 70-92, the team moved Arcia into the starting lineup as the only under 25 player and added Danny Santana as a starter.    They had 4 players under 25 with at least 200 abs (Arcia, Santana, Hicks, and Kennys Vargas).  Not a single starter was under hte age of 25  (Kyle Gibson became a full time starter in the rotation at the age of 26 this season).  They did not have a reliever under the age of 25 have over 40 appearances, and only had two pitchers under the age of 25 make appearances (Trevor May (24) and Michael Tonkins (24).

 

2015 was Molitor's first year and they finally had a brief blip above 500 at 83-79.  This was finally the year that the heralded prospects arrived with Sano, Buxton, and Rosario with brief glimpses of Kepler (7 abs) and Polonco (12 abs).  But only Sano and Rosario had over 200 at bats.  Only ONE pitcher under the age of 25 pitched for the Twins that season, Tyler Duffey in 10 starts.

 

2016 was a 103 loss season as the younger players stepped in.  Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Rosario all had at least 245 at bats.  But, only JJ Berrios was the only pitcher under 25 to start at least 10 starts in his poor initial MLB experience.  

 

I will admit that some prospects like Kyle Gibson, Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers came up to the team after the age of 25, and other prospects followed similar paths like JT Chargois and Alex Meyer.  But given the rest of the staff and the Twins record, why did it take so long to move these guys along?

 

Regardless, not until 2015, after 4 consecutive 90+ loss seasons did the Twins really do any rebuilding.  THEN, they had a solid record but bringing the full complement of young players made the Twins step back the following year.  THe blip in 2017 was done at the expense of keeping other prospects from making their transition to the big leagues and 2018 is obviosuly a year of disaster.

 

Putting in mediocre veterans like Logan Morrison that were signedin 2018 are not going to make your team competitive.  They may stave off 95+ loss seasons, but they will not make your team comeptitive int he future.  All through these "rebuilding" seasons the team seemed to prefer these mediocre veterans in the hope they could put out a mediocre team rather than biting the bullet and bringing up the prospect, and the losses.  Of course, when they finally did, the prospects (at least initially) were better than the mediocrities and they actually won games.  

 

Unfortunaltey because the FO has continuously delayed biting the bullet and (lets call it) the 2015 group of prospects have plateaued, the talent in this organization is in the low minors and they need to be brought up en masse.  Bite the fn bullet.  Lost the games (get a year or two of top draft picks again).  Develop the team and if the talent is there they will develop and be comeptitive.  

 

[Danchat]

My responses:

 

1. (Overpay Buxton) Fine.

 

2. Definitely trade for a starter, I think I've had my fill of FA starters and that's not just from Lynn and Nolasco, it's from seeing other teams sign deals like for Darvish, Cobb, Chatwood (and those are just the recent ones). Not very often are you going to come out with a positive like the Arrieta deal... Corbin's stats look great but I'm feeling like it's a trap. Not going to give him a $100M+ deal. Try to do something like the Gerrit Cole trade.

 

3. Yes, definitely. Berrios should keep getting better and he hasn't had health problems. Give him more $$$ now for more control down the road.

 

4. It goes without saying. I don't think I can consider Sano a starting 3B anymore, Mauer might retire, and Adrianza better not be our starting 2B (or starting at any other position).

 

5. Well sure, but I'm afraid this FO is going to fill it up with more fodder. They added Belisle, Field, Petit, and other non-MLB caliber players, so what's stopping them from doing it again in 2019? I would make sure not to give up on the higher upside players (Curtiss and Mejia are hold-ons to me) but remove the chaff (Slegers, Duffey, Busenitz).

[wickedslider]

 

The Twins are not, repeat NOT, going to attract any major free agents. Sure, they might get guys like Lynn, Rodney, and Reed- basically players their original team did not want to keep- but when was the last time a real stud came to Minnesota? Butler, with the Wolves, is a great example. Major stars want the limelight of NewYork, Chicago, or LA., or a warm weather established franchise. Our team will always be comprised of a few of our homegrown guys, and castoffs from other teams. I loved your article, Nick, but the only way good players come to Minnesota will be via the trade route, with prospects nobody wants to trade being dealt the other way!

"but when was the last time a real stud came to Minnesota?"

 

I'd say it was Jack Morris for the 1991 season.

[rv78]

1. Overpay Byron Buxton in arbitration
2. Sign or trade for a top three starter in the rotation
3. Extend Jose Berrios
4. Build corner infield depth
5. Clear 40-man flotsam

 

1. Wrong. Buxton hasn't proven he's a complete player. Right now I'd bank on Cave winning more games with his bat than what Buxton can win with his glove.

 

2.No. Tried that this year and we got Lynn version #2. You know what a #2 is right?

 

3.Yes, Berrios is the best young player the Twins have on their roster with the most potential going forward. Reward him and retain him for as long as you can.

 

4.Ok. I'm assuming Mauer retires. Put Sano and Austin in a battle for 1B/DH. Find a good 3B. At the very least bring back Escobar if someone else who is better is too expensive.

 

5. Shouldn't be a problem. Lots of worthless arms in the bullpen that can go bye bye, like Duffey, Drake, Belisle, Busenitz, Slegers, along with deadwood players like Petit, Gimenez, Granite, Field. 

[yarnivek1972]

You want to root for a wife beater? I don't. If they trade for him, they lose me.

You ever cheer for Kirby Puckett?

[yarnivek1972]

"but when was the last time a real stud came to Minnesota?"

 

I'd say it was Jack Morris for the 1991 season.

Jack Morris was coming off the two worst seasons of his career and was 36.

 

Low threshold for “studs”.

 

 

IMO, Erv at the point in his career when he came to the Twins was better than Morris’ expectations.

Edited September 22, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Elliot]

1. Defense

2. Defense

3. Defense

It starts up he middle.  Catcher will be improved with the return of Castro and growth of Garver.  Centerfield specifically, and the outfield overall, is buoyed by the return of Buxton.  Molitor needs to resist the urge to be impressed by early ST success and keep Buxton hitting 8th or 9th for at least the first half of the season.

 

The biggest challenge is SS and 2nd base; and the infield overall.  Infield defense starts with SS.  I don't think Polanco is the SS of a successful major league team.  However; he has certainly shown much more offensively that most expected, so there is a place for him. It appears that the Twins believe that Lewis can be an MLB SS, but that is probably not until 2020 at the earliest.  They need a solid defensive SS on a short term deal; preferably a veteran that can add a little stability to the clubhouse (Iglesias???).  Sano should not be at 3rd, but I still have faith that he can return to his early offensive success at 1B or DH.  Along with Austin, Grossman, and an occasional Kepler appearance at first, they should be set at the 1B/DH slot (if Mauer returns he bumps Grossman).  That leaves 2nd and 3rd base.  My first preference is Polanco at 3rd and Forsythe at second on a one year deal.  If Gordon can beat him out so be it.  If Polanco cannot play third then he becomes part of the 2nd base mix.

 

FA NOTE- it is not only the Twins, but the FA route overall in MLB is a crapshoot at best.  Last offseason these pages were filled with passionate pleas for the FO to sign a starting pitcher; generally for somewhere in the 4 year $70M range.  The names varied, but it was almost always Lynn, Cobb, Arietta, or Darvish at half again as much.  Falvine suceeded in getting Lynn at a steal which was still too much. And he may have been the best of the group. Year in and year out it is the same story.  Hope that you are the one in 10 that strikes gold in the FA market, and not part of the 90% that gets burned badly.  The risk of course is that unlike the Red Sox/Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs, a miscalculation on a long term contract that pays out $20M/yr can devastate a team like the Twins.

[Einheri]

I suspect very few of the Twins prospects starters/relievers used in the bigs this year and last are going to make it.  They are okay, but they are the okay-sort of pitchers that the Twins normally send out there year after year because we don't have better.

But here's the deal:  due to trades last year (mainly) we have more of them than usual.  It's time for the Twins to "trade up."  Move three or more of them for a Number 3 pitcher.

[bighat]

I am baffled and confused by the blind faith in Buxton here. He's a good dude, but he's never hit and he's 25 years old. What am I missing here?

[USAFChief]

1. Defense

2. Defense

3. Defense

It starts up he middle.  Catcher will be improved with the return of Castro and growth of Garver.  Centerfield specifically, and the outfield overall, is buoyed by the return of Buxton.  Molitor needs to resist the urge to be impressed by early ST success and keep Buxton hitting 8th or 9th for at least the first half of the season.

 

The biggest challenge is SS and 2nd base; and the infield overall.  Infield defense starts with SS.  I don't think Polanco is the SS of a successful major league team.  However; he has certainly shown much more offensively that most expected, so there is a place for him. It appears that the Twins believe that Lewis can be an MLB SS, but that is probably not until 2020 at the earliest.  They need a solid defensive SS on a short term deal; preferably a veteran that can add a little stability to the clubhouse (Iglesias???).  Sano should not be at 3rd, but I still have faith that he can return to his early offensive success at 1B or DH.  Along with Austin, Grossman, and an occasional Kepler appearance at first, they should be set at the 1B/DH slot (if Mauer returns he bumps Grossman).  That leaves 2nd and 3rd base.  My first preference is Polanco at 3rd and Forsythe at second on a one year deal.  If Gordon can beat him out so be it.  If Polanco cannot play third then he becomes part of the 2nd base mix.

 

FA NOTE- it is not only the Twins, but the FA route overall in MLB is a crapshoot at best.  Last offseason these pages were filled with passionate pleas for the FO to sign a starting pitcher; generally for somewhere in the 4 year $70M range.  The names varied, but it was almost always Lynn, Cobb, Arietta, or Darvish at half again as much.  Falvine suceeded in getting Lynn at a steal which was still too much. And he may have been the best of the group. Year in and year out it is the same story.  Hope that you are the one in 10 that strikes gold in the FA market, and not part of the 90% that gets burned badly.  The risk of course is that unlike the Red Sox/Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs, a miscalculation on a long term contract that pays out $20M/yr can devastate a team like the Twins.

I’m confused by your last paragraph. How were the Twins hurt in any way by spending “too much” on Lynn? Why would the Twins be “devastated” had they signed a long term contract? Since you advocate never signing such deals, the money will simply stay with ownership.

 

If the options are potentially waste money on a player, or absolutely spend less on payroll, I don’t see the benefit baseball-wise to lower payroll.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Lynn didn't hurt the Twins at all. Other than April, he pitched reasonably well and then got turned into a prospect and what looks like a legit major leaguer. Those are great signings for a team that thinks they contend, as that trade is a worthwhile plan B if they don't. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No, I think that we have a different definition of "commit".  Lets look at the Twins rebuild.  In 2010 the Twins finished with a 94-69 record, and with the exception of a single game wild card, the last playoff appearance.

 

In 2011, the Twins fell off the board, going 63-99.  To most, this significant fall off was unexpected, but it was real. 

 

In the offseason, the team should have concentrated on trying to rebuild.  Instead. they added 31 year old Ryan Doumit,  33 year old Josh Willingham, 38 year old Jamey Carroll.  The Twins finished 66-96 with just a single regular position player under the age of 25 (Ben Revere) and just two positional players with at least 200 abs under the age of 25 (Revere and Chris Parmelee).  On the staff, they had one starter start more than 10 games under 25 (Liam Hendricks) and 2 relievers with at least 40 appearances (Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson).

 

IN 2013, anthother 66-96 season, using these parameters the Twins had one posititional starter under 25 (Aaron Hicks) and two players with at least 200 abs (HIcks and Oswaldo Arcia).  One starter under 25 with at least 10 starts (Pedro Hernandez) and one reliever with at least 40 appearances (Ryan Pressley).

 

In 2014, the 4th consecutive season with at least 92 losses, 70-92, the team moved Arcia into the starting lineup as the only under 25 player and added Danny Santana as a starter.    They had 4 players under 25 with at least 200 abs (Arcia, Santana, Hicks, and Kennys Vargas).  Not a single starter was under hte age of 25  (Kyle Gibson became a full time starter in the rotation at the age of 26 this season).  They did not have a reliever under the age of 25 have over 40 appearances, and only had two pitchers under the age of 25 make appearances (Trevor May (24) and Michael Tonkins (24).

 

2015 was Molitor's first year and they finally had a brief blip above 500 at 83-79.  This was finally the year that the heralded prospects arrived with Sano, Buxton, and Rosario with brief glimpses of Kepler (7 abs) and Polonco (12 abs).  But only Sano and Rosario had over 200 at bats.  Only ONE pitcher under the age of 25 pitched for the Twins that season, Tyler Duffey in 10 starts.

 

2016 was a 103 loss season as the younger players stepped in.  Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Rosario all had at least 245 at bats.  But, only JJ Berrios was the only pitcher under 25 to start at least 10 starts in his poor initial MLB experience.  

 

I will admit that some prospects like Kyle Gibson, Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers came up to the team after the age of 25, and other prospects followed similar paths like JT Chargois and Alex Meyer.  But given the rest of the staff and the Twins record, why did it take so long to move these guys along?

 

Regardless, not until 2015, after 4 consecutive 90+ loss seasons did the Twins really do any rebuilding.  THEN, they had a solid record but bringing the full complement of young players made the Twins step back the following year.  THe blip in 2017 was done at the expense of keeping other prospects from making their transition to the big leagues and 2018 is obviosuly a year of disaster.

 

Putting in mediocre veterans like Logan Morrison that were signedin 2018 are not going to make your team competitive.  They may stave off 95+ loss seasons, but they will not make your team comeptitive int he future.  All through these "rebuilding" seasons the team seemed to prefer these mediocre veterans in the hope they could put out a mediocre team rather than biting the bullet and bringing up the prospect, and the losses.  Of course, when they finally did, the prospects (at least initially) were better than the mediocrities and they actually won games.  

 

Unfortunaltey because the FO has continuously delayed biting the bullet and (lets call it) the 2015 group of prospects have plateaued, the talent in this organization is in the low minors and they need to be brought up en masse.  Bite the fn bullet.  Lost the games (get a year or two of top draft picks again).  Develop the team and if the talent is there they will develop and be comeptitive.  

 

I think the choice to try again in 2013 wasn't necessarily a bad one. The 2012 team also dealt with a lot of injuries if I remember right, so taking another shot 1 year removed  wasn't a bad decision. The bad decision (in my opinion) was choosing to not acquire talent when it was obvious that 2013 was bad. Instead, they extended Perkins and Suzuki. I'm not sure they were going to get much for Hammer since he was in the first year of his deal, but there really wasn't an excuse in my opinion for not flipping Suzuki and Perkins. Their other failure was not getting a bunch of the 1 year make good type deals that could be flipped for  more talent if they didn't do well. Ryan was always dumpster diving. 

 

My other big beef is that you're making the assumption that once we commit to a rebuild, we should just bring up the prospects, whether they are ready or not. On that, I'm not going to agree with you. There's a pretty big learning curve between the low minors where our best prospects were and the majors, and the notable young ones that were brought up early clearly needed more seasoning. Hicks and Buxton are perfect examples. It's not as simple as saying sink or swim. You need to have a guy knows how to do more than tread water. That's what the minor leagues are for. In Hicks case, the Yankees have benefited from him figuring it out, and all we have to show for it is Gabriel Moya. 

[mlhouse]

 

I think the choice to try again in 2013 wasn't necessarily a bad one. The 2012 team also dealt with a lot of injuries if I remember right, so taking another shot 1 year removed  wasn't a bad decision. The bad decision (in my opinion) was choosing to not acquire talent when it was obvious that 2013 was bad. Instead, they extended Perkins and Suzuki. I'm not sure they were going to get much for Hammer since he was in the first year of his deal, but there really wasn't an excuse in my opinion for not flipping Suzuki and Perkins. Their other failure was not getting a bunch of the 1 year make good type deals that could be flipped for  more talent if they didn't do well. Ryan was always dumpster diving. 

 

My other big beef is that you're making the assumption that once we commit to a rebuild, we should just bring up the prospects, whether they are ready or not. On that, I'm not going to agree with you. There's a pretty big learning curve between the low minors where our best prospects were and the majors, and the notable young ones that were brought up early clearly needed more seasoning. Hicks and Buxton are perfect examples. It's not as simple as saying sink or swim. You need to have a guy knows how to do more than tread water. That's what the minor leagues are for. In Hicks case, the Yankees have benefited from him figuring it out, and all we have to show for it is Gabriel Moya. 

 

1.  The "try again" approach was also done in 2018.  Did it work?   

 

2.  The Suzukia/Perkins signings were just part of the pattern I demonstrated.  Although we have been a terrible team since 2011, with 2 100+ loss seasons, 3 additional 96+ loss seasons, (counting this season) 2 additional seasons with at least 82 losses, the team has never really committed to rebuilding and has, throughout this period of time over two front offices, seemingly preferred to put in 28+ year old mediocrities over bringing up and developing their own prospects.

 

3.  The term "ready or not" is mentioned in the Twins Daily forums continuously.  Let me ask this question:  "Ready for what"?   Playing in the World Series?  Making the playoffs?  Losing 100 games?  When you bring up young players you have to expect some adjustment time and if you bring up a slew of young prospects those adjustments are going to cause you to lose a lot of games as they will make a lot of mistakes.  The fact is, players can develop at the major league level.  This is proven over and over again.  You need a manager that is committed to rebuilding the team and patient enough to put up with losing.  

 

4.  AS I have pointed out several times, the Twins Way of developing players has obviously failed.  Again, "ready or not", despite plodding almost all of our prospects conservatively, one rung at a time through the minors, Twins prospects arrive at the big league level poorly prepared with huge learning curves needed to get them ready.  There is something wrong in our development system and it is being demonstrated with the win-loss record.

 

5.  Again, as I have pointed out, it would be different if we had quality players to play instead of our minor league prospects.  In 2018 the Twins played the following players in the field:   Chris GIminez, Taylor Motter, Bobby WIlson, Johnny Field, Gregorio Petit, Ryan LaMarre, and Logan Morrison.  1392 plate appearances of absolute ineptitude.  Most of that list is on the other side of 30, and if not, close to it.  And the fact that Matt Belisle is on the pitching staff has to make any fan cringe.  How can a FO convince themselves that signing him off of waivers is a better idea than promoting just about ANY relief prospect currently in the minor leagues?   I would rather lose a game with Luke Bard, given his last chance of making it posting a 9.97 ERA, than a 38 year old player posting the same?  Not Luke Bard, how about Andrew Vasquez?  Give him Belisle's 22 appearances, plus the 5 he has made since his callup, and from that we could have gotten a good read on his abilities.  

 

Basically, that is what it all comes down to.  We can lose with these old, non-entitites or we can lose using the time to develop our prospects and get answers on who is going to be a player that can contribute and who cannot.  

[Mike Sixel]

You ever cheer for Kirby Puckett?

Not after we knew, no.

[dbminn]

A fine article, Nick. Between your ideas and Sixel's comments, you have covered a lot of good ground.

 

One opinion on SP - I think Mejia still has a chance to become a very good #3 SP. He should definitely remain on the 40-man roster.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Taking my shot at the whole "re-build" idea:

 

1] We have to remember that the re-buikd stretches over two different FO. That is not an excuse, it's a fact. And each FO has made moves toward that end. Has there been some "dumpster diving" here and there...(And I don't like that term)...yes. But you also have to field a team. Let's use Suzuki, just for an example. What kther catcher was available to rush, promote, and let develop? Trade for one? With what assets? The young players in the system you want to develop for said re-build?

 

2] I am NOT saying anyone/everyone is performing to expected/hoped standards...at least not yet...but Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Sano and Polanco are all young players, (still young players), promoted very aggressively. And we have seen performance, flashes of performance, along with some very bad play. Isn't this collection of talent part of a committed re-build? Wasn't the best promotion of Romero yet another indication?

 

The new FO has signed some vets. They've even cycled a few guys back through that have frustrated us and left us scratching our heads. And I'm not excusing them for some of these moves. But they have been pretty aggressive with acquiring young talent to stock the system in a variety of ways and have been quite aggressive with promotions of many of these players. Rooker played half this season in AA, in only his first full season. Khiriloff and Lewis and Rortvedt were moved aggressively. This was Thorpe's first full season back, I believe, and be even got a brief taste of AAA ball.

 

There is talent and depth in the system. There have been indications of strong promotions. There is enough depth to even make a trade or two to augment the roster with guys that aren't "dumpster diving". And no, the 1 year deals the FO handed out last off season don't qualify. They were short deals for guys with some track record that just didn't work out. But they resulted in some net gains as well.

 

3] Part of rebuilding requires development and patience. Nobody wants to hear that. They all want the Twins to have a couple 19-20yo come up and look really good because a couple of other guys on different teams have done that. In all my years of watching baseball, I've seen very very few guys who ever did that.

 

A couple years ago, Berrios and Rosario were called potential busts by many because they didn't dominate immediately. Berrios was deserving of his All Star selection, has tons of potential still, and could/should develop in to a legitimate #1-2 SP. Rosario is one of the best and most exciting OF out there and deserved to go to the All Star game. Before his leg injury and screwed up off season, Sano was an All Star just last year. By all reports, FWIW, he took his demotion and new plan to heart and is saying all the right things about his approach to finishing this season and getting ready for next season. Kepler showed he could hit RH and teased us with his potential despite practically skipping AAA ball. He reversed his splits this year. Why can't he even out his numbers against both sides in 2019? And second half last season and since coming off his suspension, we've been seeing the potential in Polanco's bat.

 

Despite a sudden bad stretch, Hildenberger has turned in to a quality part of the pen. Rogers, just as much. Remember last season when many claimed he was just a LOOGY? Stewart, Littell and Gonsalves in the rotation, Moya and Vasquez (along with Busenitz who may be done) have received looks now. They are, at least getting their feet wet.

 

I have real conflicts with a couple guys not up, some of whom need to be added to the 40 man anyway, but each player and each situation is different.

 

4] There have been additional non-Twins prospects who have received real opportunities. Cave was acquired after probably his best milb season as a WTH move and looks like a real keeper. Austin, still only 26,has big time power, a solid milb track record, and has thrived since getting his first extended opportunity with the Twins. I have no idea his ceiling, but he's at least an interesting piece who appears to be at least complimentary. While perhaps mis-handled at Rochester, (perhaps because they didn't really know what they had), Astudillo is getting an extended loom instead of just riding veteran Giminez to the finish line.

 

Yes, promotions need to take place, and some of the most talented of which should be pushed some. And yes, there are some holes to be filled yet, whether by said promotions, trade, FA, or even a filler piece or two. But this team absolutely bas been, and still is in, a rebuild mode.