Article: 5 Things the Twins Absolutely Must Accomplish This Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

A little over one week remains in the 2018 campaign. I think we're all about ready to move on and forget about this one. So let's look ahead to the coming pivotal offseason, with a breakdown of five imperatives lying before the front office.In a little over a month, Twins Daily will be putting out its annual Offseason Handbook. I'm really excited about this edition because the coming winter is as ripe for discussion and dissection as any in memory.

 

We'll be featuring plenty of stories here as we build up to the Handbook's release, but today I thought we'd kick things off with a high-level look at some critical priorities. If the Twins don't check all five of these boxes before spring training 2019 gets underway, it's gonna be hard to view their offseason as a real success.

 

1. Overpay Byron Buxton in arbitration

 

Regardless of your feelings on the matter, there's no doubt about this: The Twins damaged their relationship with Buxton by sending him home after the minor-league season ended. His year was clearly a disaster but Buxton remains a centerpiece of the franchise's vision going forward. Creating ill will with such a player is suboptimal, to say the least.

 

General manager Thad Levine acknowledged as much at the time. "From this day forward," he said, "I think we recognize a responsibility to make amends and that we’re going to need to invest in the relationship with Byron Buxton."

 

Well, they'll get their chance to start on that almost immediately.

 

Although the decision not to recall Buxton pushed his free agency back to 2022, he's still eligible for arbitration this offseason as a "Super 2." For the first time, he and his agent will be able to negotiate his salary. The Twins would be wise to ease up a bit.

 

Given his complete lack of output this year (.383 OPS in 94 plate appearances), Minnesota is technically justified in giving Buxton a minimal raise from his $580,000 salary. Doing so would be standard operating procedure. But this might be a time to deviate.

 

When the two sides submit numbers, the Twins should make sure theirs is fairly generous, and as long as Buxton's request is within reason, they should quickly accept it. No pushback. He's surely feeling as though they robbed him of millions by delaying his big payday, and while they can't fully make it up to him at this point, they can at least make a showing of good faith.

 

It's a first step toward mending what will hopefully still be a tight long-term relationship. And given the relative dollars involved, it's a no-brainer.

 

2. Sign or trade for a top three starter in the rotation

 

While some other areas of the roster are riddled with uncertainty, Minnesota's starting rotation is looking pretty solid. Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda are essentially locked in, leaving one vacancy. The Twins could theoretically fill that spot internally, holding a spring competition between the likes of Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Zack Littell and others.

 

But given the uncertainty surrounding Pineda and his perpetual ailments, the club is probably wise to reserve as much minor-league depth as it can. With their considerable stockpile of both available funds and tradable assets, the Twins should be looking to make a bold move on the pitching market.

 

There are some premium names in free agency, as well as some intriguing trade scenarios. You'll find plenty covered in the Handbook. The Twins need to aim high here. It's an opportunity for Levine and Derek Falvey to make a signature splash after smartly bowing out of last year's Darvish Derby.

 

3. Extend Jose Berrios

 

There is zero reason not to do this. Berrios is the player this organization has long been waiting for: a young, dominant, starter with an amazingly clean bill of health. After thoroughly dominating the minor leagues, he has improved in each of his three turns at the majors, and was named an All-Star at age 24 in July.

 

The right-hander has four years of team control remaining, and will be eligible for arbitration next winter. This is the ideal time to strike an extension, leveraging that team control to score a relative bargain on his first years of free agency, and maybe even a team option or two. It's the blueprint Falvey helped execute in Cleveland multiple times.

 

Given his age and almost spotless track record, Berrios will be able to command a hefty sum. But I can't see any reason why the Twins would be reluctant to do whatever it takes to lock him up through 2024 or beyond. He is the definition of a building block.

 

The longer they wait, the more their leverage dissipates.

 

4. Build corner infield depth

 

Joe Mauer's contract is up, and he seems likely to retire. Logan Morrison will be a free agent and probably won't return return. Eduardo Escobar was traded in July. Miguel Sano... well, it's gonna be tough to really count on him in any capacity next year.

 

The Twins find themselves shallow at the infield corners. Tyler Austin looks like he'll be a factor but outside of him and Sano there won't be any incumbency at first or third on next year's roster. The closest legitimate impact help is Brent Rooker in Double-A.

 

Acquiring a starting-caliber corner infielder – whether at first, or at third with Sano going to first or DH – should be a given. The team might even want to think about getting creative to increase its flexibility and options. Max Kepler started 38 games at first base in the minors...

 

5. Clear 40-man flotsam

 

The decisions coming up in late November, as the Winter Meetings and Rule 5 draft approach, are among the toughest of the year for a front office. They'll have to take a hard look at their 40-man roster and decide who's really worth protecting – who they absolutely can't afford to lose.

 

Making room for a new wave of additions, and also hopefully a number of external pickups, will require the Twins to take a hard look at who they need to keep. Some members of the 40-man are already on their way out (Mauer, Chris Gimenez, Logan Forsythe) and others make are fairly obvious cut candidates, but there will be some difficult calls to make.

 

Is there room for Aaron Slegers or Adalberto Mejia anymore? Has Matt Magill shown enough to merit keeping around? What about Oliver Drake? Does it really make sense to keep dedicating spots to John Curtiss or Tyler Duffey or Alan Busenitz?

 

This year's team appears a long way from where it needs to be. A fairly extensive overhaul would be warranted and I suspect we'll see one.

 

Stay tuned for more details on the 2019 Offseason Handbook and, of course, more daily wall-to-wall coverage of your favorite team.

 

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[ND-Fan]

I don't expect the Twins to sign many free agent players except for one year deals for the coming year they have glaring needs at 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base. This front office is not going to sign any quality free agents in the next years business I believe they are going to see where they are with this group of core players. I could see them signing Berios to longer term contract but I have feeling they will have hard time getting this done. The pitching depth will not be there unless they sign Gibson and Ordorizzi to longer contract is not that deep. I could see both being sold at the trading deadline next year for future prospects. I think were being said up to loose to get best higher pick in the draft.  The twins are rebuilding and right now were on mission to have highest draft pick as possible for year after this next year to set up franchise with quality players. The problem with this how do excite people to come out and watch baseball. 

 

[Darius]

I don’t really feel sorry for Buxton, like everyone seems to. He hasn’t really earned anything, and he’s been given ample opportunity.

 

Should he have been called up? Probably. Will this light a fire under his butt? Is he has a pulse, it sure should. Something tells me he’ll have a good spring.

[The Wise One]

I don’t really feel sorry for Buxton, like everyone seems to. He hasn’t really earned anything, and he’s been given ample opportunity.

Should he have been called up? Probably. Will this light a fire under his butt? Is he has a pulse, it sure should. Something tells me he’ll have a good spring.

.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=deB_u-to-IE Is that the kind of fire you meant.

[The Wise One]

Berrrios would follow the lead of other teammates and her on himself

 

September is important to any player. From needing stats for arbitration to proving you belong this time is valuable . Stewart and Gonsalves are rising. Littell is sinking as is Busenitz and Duffey. There are way too many reliever on the 40 man roster.

by the end of the month the FO will have enough data on Austin and Cave to know if the are a short term fix, part of the future, or just another bunch of replacement players. As they are the product of the FO talent acquisition team their ceiling might buy them more tome. Grossman may not be so lucky. His .750 ops should be good enough to keep, but maybe not. Adrianna should have a replacement I am not sure where the corner depth is going to come from. Has Stewart,or Gonsalves looked good against anyone with corner depth?

A top 3 starter is on everyone ‘s wish list

Buxton will get a raise to 2 million. He should also be traded for top of rotation help

[curt1965]

The Twins are not, repeat NOT, going to attract any major free agents. Sure, they might get guys like Lynn, Rodney, and Reed- basically players their original team did not want to keep- but when was the last time a real stud came to Minnesota? Butler, with the Wolves, is a great example. Major stars want the limelight of NewYork, Chicago, or LA., or a warm weather established franchise. Our team will always be comprised of a few of our homegrown guys, and castoffs from other teams.

I loved your article, Nick, but the only way good players come to Minnesota will be via the trade route, with prospects nobody wants to trade being dealt the other way!

[nytwinsfan]

Two words: Patrick Corbin.

[rdehring]

Point on, Nick, thanks.

 

One move you didn't mention is extending Kyle Gibson.  I would put that right up there with Berrios as 3b.  

 

Don't know what to think about Buxton.  And something no one has mentioned, when he was approached for an extension last winter he turned it down.  So his lack of performance and time of service would be a non issue had he negotiated last year.  But the bigger question is whether he will ever be more than a defensive/speed guy?

 

Sano is another question.  To be honest, I don't know how the Twins prepare for next year with both of these guys.  They are likely untradeable and must be penciled into any starting lineup.  Unfortunately, both could be all-stars or busts in 2019.  Can we at least hope for one of each?

 

And as I stated in another article this morning, I have a feeling we are going to see a fairly major trade for a starting pitcher over the winter.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1) Maybe a deal with the Rockies for Jon Gray and Ryan Mcmahon (3B/1B) ?

2) I'd also love the extensions you mention, as well as potentially a strong glove/defensive shortstop. I'll say Jose Iglesias would look great here.

3) Sign a reliever to a 2 year deal (like Reed's contract) and some 1 year minor league contracts for the bullpen and see what plays out.

4) Get everyone healthy and ready to roll. Let's go!

[diehardtwinsfan]

It will be interesting. I think number 4 should be number 1. They need to bring in a guy like Cruz to DH, and I wouldn't mind a guy that can play 1B/3B/DH on top of that to keep Austin, Sano, and the new guy fresh. I'd add that they need a 2B and more flexibility in the IF as well. 

 

They actually do have a surplus of young pitching, and not enough places to put them all.. esepcially if they go out and get someone. I think to some extent, they may have to trade some of it off. I'd consider Romero, Thrope, and Graterol practically untouchable (note, I'd send one of them off, but I'd better be getting someone really good)

 

The other problem is the pen. Lots of options, and a manager that doesn't trust any of them. My biggest disappointment from this season is really not seeing any of those guys truly emerge, and the FO trading off the one guy that did. Don't get me wrong, I liked those prospects, but that trade is the only one that negatively impacted 2019, and we didn't see enough to make me think that the guys we have can step up. 

[mikelink45]

I suspect the team expects Tyler Austin to be at 1B and Sano at 3B next year.  I have my doubts and the number of Ks will drive me crazy.  If we go back to Buxton,Rosario,Kepler in the OF does that make Cave the DH when he is not in the field?  I am not seeing that as a contending lineup.  But right now 2B and SS are the real questions - have they had enough of Forsythe for them to believe in him for next year?  And if they do can Polanco improve his fielding to go with his bat?  Is there a good SS out there or are we waiting for Lewis and Rooker and Kiriloff to answer all these needs?

 

Yes sign Berrios, use caution with Gibson, at his age he can go down as quick as he came up.  Do not trust Pineda to make it through the season, put Romero in the rotation no matter what else happens.  I would also question an extension for Odorizzi, but he would be part of this five man rotation.

 

The BP is number one in terms of needs.  We are in the BP era of baseball, it has become the most important part of most rosters now and we do not have the shutdown guys that teams crave.  That needs to be addressed. 

[hybridbear]

Positional flexibility is key. Kepler could play some 1B, although I feel like his defense is more valuable in the outfield. Rosario used to play 2B in the minors and his OF defense seems to have declined substantially. Would it be a good fit to look at moving him back to the infield? Does he have the athleticism to play other IF positions like 3B or SS on occasion? And what about Astudillo? It sure is fun to watch him play!

[rdehring]

The above comments got me thinking about the middle infield.  Do they need to get a second baseman?  Maybe the best move is to move Polanco to second and pencil Adrianza in as the shortstop.  Although we haven't seen him there a lot, he is supposed to be a defensive first shortstop.  And he has hit better than expected.  That would mean they could go out and sign a utility guy who plays good defense at both spots. 

 

Although none of us knows if Gordon will make it, they would have Gordon and Arraez knocking on the door from AAA.  Then they have Lewis, who could arrive as soon as next September, penciled in as the starting shortstop beginning in 2020. 

[Rosterman]

Let's go backwards here. The 40-man. The Twins need to add Jake Reed, Nick Gordon and Lamonte Wade, according to MLB Trade Rumors. They also need to think about adding Tyler Jay and Luis Arraez, although both performed okay at AA ball, I wouldn't expect anyone to take a flyer on keeping them on a 40-man all season. They should probably think about Nick Anderson. They could also consider if they want to kep names like Brian Navaretto, Luke Bard, D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades in the organization. All have the ability to walk. None are probably necessary to add to the 40-man. Except Navaretto if you want future catching depth, but....

 

Free Agents: Belisle, Santana, Gimenez, Mauer,Morrison, Forsythe. On the Bubble: Granite, Slegers, Field, Petit, Duffey, Busenitz, Magill, Drake. I think Curtiss does have a bit longer lease for the moment. Adrianza is still inexpensive. Grossman is still inexpensive and now adds a veteran feel to the young team. Reed is owed $8 million. Mejia is still a young lefty and did well in his limited time. But that is like 19 names (holy moley) and picture the need to keep NONE of them in 2020. 

 

Remember, you do need names to drop IF you add a free agent. Or a Rule 5 grab (at this point is such a player better than anyone in your high minors). So the Twins only need to lose 4-5 right away and maybe a couple by the first of the year.

 

Corner infield depth. Infield, period. Polanco is still at shortstop. Wasn't he supposed to be better at second? Adrianza and Petit are in the mix as backups, although that doesn't thrill you. Austin can play first. Sano can play third, but wouldn't it be nice to have him rotate, instead, with Austin at 1B/DH instead of keeping Grossman in the DH mix? But then we need someone on third. Escobar is doing okay at Arizona. Could you get him for 3 years at $20-25 million? Would you do it? So if the Twins truly have to add Nick Gordon to the 40-man, then why didn't they bring him up for September and play him. I guess if push comes to shove, they might be able to grab Forsythe for a one year, or better yet look at Dozier again for a one-year rebuild his worth contract, if those bridges haven't been burned. The Twins are a mess in the infield period. And, of course, Joe Mauer could come back.

 

Contracts. The Twins need to see what it would take to keep Jose Berrios for at least five seasons with an option or two. The Twins need to see what it would take to keep Eddie Rosario for the same, although that is a gamble, but you might be lucky to get him to sign a Span-like contract (in today's dollars) and have him continue production and trade him at some point. The Twins also have to look at bullpen arms and decide if May or Hildenberger can be closer material and is it worthwhile to dangle an extension to either.

 

The rotation. Odorizzi has actually pitched well to end the season (think Gibson in 2017). Did you see enough to think of an extension? How much are you going to pay Kyle Gibson? Or do you just play them, trade them in mid-season, and elevate more of the promising arms towards a 2021 success story. No need to buy an arm unless you feel comfortable offering multi-years to some 28-year-old free agent not named Yu.

 

Buxton? If he plays well, he will be richly rewarded. You don't overpay in arbitration because you feel it might be a nice thing to do. All it does is drive up the price you have to pay for the following seasons. You overpay if you wish to extend (or get a good deal if the player themselves wants security over dreams of riches). You can dangle something longterm out there, too. But the question might be...why? If Buxton has a breakout year, you still control him. You have a better look at what is coming up in the system (Krilloff, Larnach). If he has a breakout 2019, you also have a viable player to flip to another team, under control for three more seasons, if he doesn't fit into your long term plans for...well, heaven knows why.

 

Sadly, the team is what we see right now. There is a lot of roster fluff that can be replaced by rookies NOT quite ready for the team, or other roster fluff from other teams.

 

We have Castro coming back. A vet behind-the-plate. Not much with the bat, but a nice mix with Garver. Astudillo is interesting and can be that bench guy who can play 1B/3B/OF and also catch. Deserves another season. Cave will start in center if Buxton doesn't, or work with Kepler in right and be a bench bat, which puts Grossman in limbo. The infield is a total mess. Are future fulltime replacements one or two seasons away is the question there?

 

 

[Winston Smith]

Find a SS and move Polanco to 2B, he is not a SS.

[Tomj14]

I think the #1 thing that needs to be accomplished this off season is does FO think that 2019 is even worth trying or is it just another lost year.

 

[mattjc1983]

I'm not 100% convinced on Gibson, at least not unless we can extend pretty cheap.  It's easy to get excited that we're finally seeing some ok value 9 years after he was drafted, but that's just it.  He's going to be 31 years old next month, and his best seasons have been ERAs in the high 3's.  After 160 career starts he's sitting at a 4.51 career ERA.

 

His age and career #'s are actually alarmingly similar to what Ricky Nolasco was when the Twins signed him to that ridiculous contract.  In fact, in most respects Nolasco was statistically better through age 30 than Gibson has been. 

 

Would you do the Nolasco contract again?

[Nick Nelson]

 

Positional flexibility is key. Kepler could play some 1B, although I feel like his defense is more valuable in the outfield. Rosario used to play 2B in the minors and his OF defense seems to have declined substantially. 

Rosario actually had his best season defensively by most accounts. UZR liked his range and I believe he's among the MLB leaders in OF assists. This matches the eye test for me — I think he's mostly been terrific out there. Kepler's solid but not as much of a difference-maker from my view.

[Mike Sixel]

 

1) Maybe a deal with the Rockies for Jon Gray and Ryan Mcmahon (3B/1B) ?

2) I'd also love the extensions you mention, as well as potentially a strong glove/defensive shortstop. I'll say Jose Iglesias would look great here.

3) Sign a reliever to a 2 year deal (like Reed's contract) and some 1 year minor league contracts for the bullpen and see what plays out.

4) Get everyone healthy and ready to roll. Let's go!

 

The Rockies are not trading Gray. Why would they? I had that dream this year, when they sent him down, but it isn't happening. But I wish it would!

[Mike Sixel]

Very well written and probably mostly correct article. Nicely done.

[jmlease1]

 

Rosario actually had his best season defensively by most accounts. UZR liked his range and I believe he's among the MLB leaders in OF assists. This matches the eye test for me — I think he's mostly been terrific out there. Kepler's solid but not as much of a difference-maker from my view.

 

Rosario seems to have gone back more to the OF we were hoping he'd be in 2015 and rebounded nicely from an awful defensive year in 2017. If he can continue to be the kind of hitter he's been the last two season and the defender he's been in every year other than 2017, he's a very nice corner OF and someone to build with.

 

Kepler had a disappointing season, there's no way around it. He simply did not take a significant step forward on offense, which leaves him in a bad spot. He's an excellent defender in the corners and an acceptable one in center, but without more offense he's profiling as a nice 4th OF, not a starter. 

 

What to do about RF is a little bit of a problem for the Twins. Kirilloff looks like the real deal, but is he 1 year away or 2? And while he's destroyed A-ball, the jump to AA can be a tough one. Betting on him to be the RF of the future in a year is a definite gamble. So do you keep rolling with Kepler as a starter or do you go looking for FA in what should be one of the easier positions fill to protect yourself from having to rush Kirilloff or as insurance in case he actually isn't the sure thing? Lord knows, i don't want to run with Robbie Grossman as a starting RF!

 

Is lamonte wade ready to contribute next year? He didn't hit enough at AAA this year to give you a lot of confidence there.

 

Figuring out RF is something the twins need to do, and I think it's one of the harder decisions.

 

I generally agree with Nick's priorities, but #6 is RF to me.

[Mike Sixel]

Kepler was league median in RF among all teams.....I don't understand why people don't like him as an OF.......Of course, that was largely driven by very good defense, so I understand why people want more hitting......but I'm not sure replacing him with a bad fielder who hits more is a better idea. I'd rather they just let him try to keep hitting.....and he can play CF, just in case Buxton can't hit at all again....

[mlhouse]

Five things the Twins must do this offseason.

 

1.  While I like Paul Molitor, and can even be convinced he is a good manager, I don't think he is a good manager for this rebuilding team.  The team needs to find a manager that is adept at developing young talent and has the patience to work on their mistakes and lose games, this offseason.

 

2.  Instead of fantasies of acquiring, in any manner, a top level starter this team needs to commit to its young core group that isn't even close to the majors today.  Kiriloff, Lewis, Rooker, Gordon amongst others need to get full commitments from the team at the major league level.  These guys need to work in with the other younger players we have on the roster and we need to find the bulk of a lineup and staff we can move forward with AND compete.  Even though this will cost us losses in 2019, doing so sooner rather than later will save losses in the future.

 

3.  THey need to move on from Joe Mauer.  While Mauer is the only semblence to an identity that the Twins have and he is still a serviceable player, he can only play a position that the Twins need to work defensive limited players like Sano and Austin through the lineup.  With Mauer entrenched at first it severely limits what the team can do.

 

4.    Again, with respect to Berrios, the team needs to do the opposite of what the orginal poster suggests.  While I agree that Berrios is a solid player, there is no sense in extending him while the team still has control.  In professional sports, four years is the long run, and many of the variables can change in that time, and the leverage still remains if they want to lock him up next season.  But there are also downside risks.  WHy lock up a guy at a contract value significanly higher than what he would get under team control and then have him encounter an injury.  Instead, the team should maintain their financial flexibility and then HOPE that Berrios deserves a huge contract when the period of team control expires.   

 

5.  WIth respect to Buxton, again, the proper course is just the opposite suggested by the OP.  His performance as a major league baseball player does not warrant anything beyond the minimum contract offer, and an aribitrator is going to see it that way too.  Give him the minimum.  Make him hungry.  Make him inspired.  Push him to EARN more.  If Buxton gets back on the field committed then he can easily earn everything that is due.

[jtkoupal]

I prefer the idea of acquiring a legitimate #2 or #3 starter, but another idea has gotten my attention lately. What if the Twins went with a 4.5 man rotation, and used the "Fifth Starter" days to piggyback with the likes of Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, De Jong, & Littell?

 

The Twins could skip the 5th starter when off days allow (at least some of the time) and then, when the 5th Starter does need to pitch, use two pitchers to piggyback.

There are plenty of options, so they can be sent up and down as team needs dictate. One pitcher can pitch 3-4 innings, and the other can pitch another 3-4. 

 

It's wonky and unconventional, but it could negate the need to spend big on a free agent, which is always a risk. I prefer to sign an established pitcher, but if you can get similar production from a bunch of guys making league-minimum, you might want to think long and hard.

 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

I prefer the idea of acquiring a legitimate #2 or #3 starter, but another idea has gotten my attention lately. What if the Twins went with a 4.5 man rotation, and used the "Fifth Starter" days to piggyback with the likes of Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, De Jong, & Littell?

 

The Twins could skip the 5th starter when off days allow (at least some of the time) and then, when the 5th Starter does need to pitch, use two pitchers to piggyback.

There are plenty of options, so they can be sent up and down as team needs dictate. One pitcher can pitch 3-4 innings, and the other can pitch another 3-4. 

 

It's wonky and unconventional, but it could negate the need to spend big on a free agent, which is always a risk. I prefer to sign an established pitcher, but if you can get similar production from a bunch of guys making league-minimum, you might want to think long and hard.

So, then, what...a 14 man staff??

[Vanimal46]

I don't want to piggy back starters or deal with openers next season. Find 5 good starting pitchers. That should always be the goal. Always.

[ChrisKnutson]

1) Maybe a deal with the Rockies for Jon Gray and Ryan Mcmahon (3B/1B) ?

2) I'd also love the extensions you mention, as well as potentially a strong glove/defensive shortstop. I'll say Jose Iglesias would look great here.

3) Sign a reliever to a 2 year deal (like Reed's contract) and some 1 year minor league contracts for the bullpen and see what plays out.

4) Get everyone healthy and ready to roll. Let's go!

 

Instead of McMahon, how about Wilmer Flores? He’s got some playoff experience, positional flexibility (1st/3rd/SS/2nd), and is a decent bat who’s capable of taking a walk.

[mike8791]

Nick, I always look forward yo your postings.  They are well written, to the point, and lack the "Minnesota nice" slant that too many other posters seem hung up on.  But(there's always a but I'm afraid), in this case I have to strenuously disagree with your conclusions.

 

First of all, the FO has to look at this current roster under the magnifying glass and realistically determine if there is a core worth building upon in the offseason to legitimately compete with Cleveland next year'  If the answer is yes, then Plan A should be implemented. In order of importance, here are the five things they must do:

 

1. Trade for a potential #1 starter who gives the team a legitimate shot at winning the first game of a playoff series.  Berrios is not there yet and from what I've seen in big games, is very unlikely to morph into the ace needed for such competition.  Hope I'm wrong but his dominant performances have been largely against sub-.500 teams.  Potential trade targets: one of the Mets big three, Baumgartner, Greinke, or perhaps even Snell.  We have some depth in our system and could put together a nice package of top prospects, including anyone not named Lewis or Kirillof(and for Snell or DeGrom, yes, I would include either).  Forget FA for an ace - none are available and the Twins don't have it in their DNA to win a bidding war, which is not a bad thing.

 

2.  Second, find a cleanup hitter probably thru FA who can rotate between DH/1B.  This means finding someone who can fill the void left by Sano.  No, I'm not giving up completely on Sano but to count on him to be the cleanup hitter would count as dereliction of duty by the FO.  The Twins lack of a middle of the lineup hitter is a glaring hole and must be filled if they are going to contend next year.  Nelson Cruz could be available, but there are a number of good hit/no field thumpers who are alsways available in the offseason.  All it takes is money, which in the post-Mauer years, the Twins will have in abundance, should they choose to spend it.

 

3.   Find two shutdown relievers who can handle the 8th and 9th innings.  With the possible exception of Rogers who has shown some signs of being more than just a LOOGY, the other bullpen holdovers have shown nothing to indicate they can be counted on in critical game-saving situations.  Lots of middle inning fillers, but a clear lack of closers.  This is one of the most disappointing results of 2018, but it is the reality of the Twins' relief staff this year.  Free agency is the only way to fix this mess and the Twins have to be prepared to be agressive if they are serious about contention.

 

4.  As many have mentioned, finding a slick fielding SS should be on the FO's list.  This would allow them to fill 2B with Polanco whose bat deserves inclusion in the lineup, but whose gl;ove is far too shaky to be the everyday shortstop.  Aside from Iglesias, there should be other contenders so long as fielding, not hitting is the main criteria.  Addison Russell on the Cubs might be available in trade and he would top my wish list if the Twins' minor league depth in pitching would be of interest.

 

5. Addition of a super sub/starting infielder(yes, Escobar would fill the bill nicely so long as his price is reasonable).  There are too many questions in this infield, mainly at 3B, to go into next season without some reinforcement.  It doesn't have to be an all star, but instead a solid veteran like Murphy for example would be a welcome addition.  To rely on Sano to man any position full time is a fool's errand in my opinion(if he surprises with a comeback season, that's a bonus, but the FO should not assume anything).  If they do, shame on them!!

 

If all these needs are addressed in the right way, the Twins could contend again without changes in the OF or behind the plate.  But if the FO feels there are just too many holes on the 25 man roster and cannot see a path to filling the five needs listed above, Plan B would be to go with a youth movement, as follows:

 

1.  Put Buxton in CF and let him sink or swim(see #2 below).

2. Bring up Kiriloff, assuming he has a good spring training, and let him battle it out with Kepler or Buxton for starting outfielder.  May the best man win!

3.  Bring up Royce Lewis or Gordon at midseason(whoever is doing better) and give them the SS or 2B position for the rest of the year.

4.  Give Romero a starting rotation spot out of spring training.  He is the only Twins' minor leaguer who showed some potential as belonging on the major league staff.  At midseason, promote the best minor league starter in the system to the major league rotation.

5. Bring Rooker up (at beginning or within first two months of season) and place him in the DH/1B rotation - assuming he continues to show progress in ST or in AAA.

 

I am sceptical that Falvey and company could accomplish all five needs in Plan A(and let's be clear, all 5 scenarios are needed to adequately fill the holes that appeared in 2018).  From what I have read about this FO, they do not seem inclined to accelerate development of young low minor leaguers, either, so Plan B is unlikely to be implemented and thus, we are probably looking at them to muddle through with half-hearted attempts to plug the glaring holes now present with better players than now on the roster, but by no means - difference-makers.  The one bright spot with this middling approach is that Mollie would be gone some time in 2019 and a full-time rebuild could commence.  In that case, assuming player development has improved, we might look forward to 2021 or 2022 as first years of real contention.

 

In conclusion, as many TDers have said, this offseason is the true test of the FO's acumen and mettle.  To land in the middle here is the worst of the three scenarios but this seems most likely to this observer, thereby dooming this organization to the dreaded middle of the road - neither total rebuild nor go for the brass ring.  Hope I'm wrong, but this current ownership has shown no appetite to shoot any higher.

 

 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

2.  Instead of fantasies of acquiring, in any manner, a top level starter this team needs to commit to its young core group that isn't even close to the majors today.  Kiriloff, Lewis, Rooker, Gordon amongst others need to get full commitments from the team at the major league level.  These guys need to work in with the other younger players we have on the roster and we need to find the bulk of a lineup and staff we can move forward with AND compete.  Even though this will cost us losses in 2019, doing so sooner rather than later will save losses in the future.

I don't take issue with much of the rest you said, but I don't like accepting major league losses at this stage of the rebuild that started way back in 2012. If AA or AAA isn't preparing the near-ready players for life in the majors, then address THAT. The minors are where players belong until they prove ready. If the competition there isn't quite stiff enough, it's the duty of the coaching staff to gently (or not so gently) point out to the stud prospect the ways he's sliding by and not doing what's necessary to succeed at the next level.

 

Other teams seem to have players come up and perform. I've been bothered a long time by the need for our youngsters to suffer through rookie jitters like May, Berrios and now Gonsalves demonstrated. Maybe Gonsalves has been stubborn and didn't listen when his AAA coach tried to tell him - if so, that's partly on the player but partly on the coach. I'm guilty of making assumptions and extrapolations here, but I don't think I'm way off base in this. Kohl Stewart expressed surprise at coming out from way out in the bullpen to make his second-inning start the other day - they've been doing the Opener in Rochester too - so where is the preparation, for all the quotidian little things that make up a major-leaguer's experience? It's more of a stretch to guess that Gonsalves is shocked to discover that major league hitters are less likely to go fishing at mediocre breaking pitches way down in the dirt, but all the evidence seems to point that way.

[Thrylos]

 

1. Overpay Byron Buxton in arbitration
2. Sign or trade for a top three starter in the rotation
3. Extend Jose Berrios
4. Build corner infield depth
5. Clear 40-man flotsam

 

1.  No reason to do that.    Cave is just a year older, and even though he is not as good as Buxton is with the glove, he has been better with the bat.  Even if you like small sample sizes and account Buxton's 2016 second half (.300/.347/.546) Cave bettered it in his first half this season (.312/.346/.558).   The best case scenario for the Twins will be for Buxton to come with a chip on his shoulder in spring training and then:

 

2. Used as the centerpoint for a trade for an Ace.  Not a top 3 pitcher.  They need an Ace.  A real one.  And they can use Buxton (and the likes of Gonsalves. Gordon etc) to get him.  Maybe even 2 top of the rotation pitchers, because:

 

3. I am not convinced that Berrios is better than a number 3 in a championship team.  His 2018 was improved over his 2017 but if one looks at his splits, he/she will see the same difference between home and road games and the same drop off in the second half.  I would love to see the Twins going to a team that screams for rebuilding, like the Mets and go after both of their top starters (DeJong and Syndergaard) and their star outfielder (Cespedes) with a packaged centered on Buxton and Berrios, with players like Gonsalves, Gordon, Kepler etc as add ons.

 

4. Bring back Eduardo Escobar will go long ways here.  Arraez (.310/.361/.397 between A+ and AA) is back.  These two can rotate at second and back up Sano at third if necessary.  Rooker (.254/.333/.465, 22 HR in AA) and Luke Raley (.275/.350/.471, 20 HR in AA) will fight with Austin for the starting position and DH roles, with the loser at AAA.  Enough depth there, esp if you add another utility type like Astrudillo.

 

5.  That eventually will happen if they go hard after top of rotation starters...

Edited September 21, 2018 by Thrylos