Max Kepler: Trade or Keep?

[mikelink45]

I am really curious about the way other teams see him.  We are too close to judge.  His fielding is really good, his bat is so-so, but do others see a potential break out or continued stagnation.  I think we trade him, only if he is part of a package to get something we absolutely need - SS or SP.  Right now I find that it is hard to count on Buxton so we need Cave/Rosario/Kepler in the OF until the other young players emerge.

[Tomj14]

 

I am really curious about the way other teams see him.  We are too close to judge.  His fielding is really good, his bat is so-so, but do others see a potential break out or continued stagnation.  I think we trade him, only if he is part of a package to get something we absolutely need - SS or SP.  Right now I find that it is hard to count on Buxton so we need Cave/Rosario/Kepler in the OF until the other young players emerge.

Or you trade him and others to fill SS or SP, then sign a FA outfielder to a short contract?

[bird]

 

Maybe you are correct, but I was reading between the lines. Lots of people on here have commented about how we can't trade minor league prospects. Take this thread for example with Kepler we can't trade him because maybe someday he will be a 4 - 5 WAR guy or don't trade low? So basically Kepler is UN-touchable, unless somebody way over pays, maybe the Twins should be the ones that over pays a bit to get the guy they want?

 

 

Actually, I think lots of our pals here have expressed frustration with the team's reticence to trade minor leaguers. 

 

The arguments to keep Kepler are more nuanced than you're describing. It's more about creating a hole until Kirilloff is ready to play like a major leaguer, which is not in 2019. It's more about Kepler's potential to give us more production in 2019 than we're seeing today. It's more about settling for a relatively paltry return that won't move the needle anyway.And for me,  it's much more about having a strategy for building a sustainable, competitive club.

 

Trade from surplus, not from areas of need. And right now, the surplus is in #5-6 starters, in fall-back relievers like Busenitz and Duffey, and in prospects with the ceiling of becoming a replacement-level MLB player like Granite and Wade. I just don't see a surplus, anywhere, of players who are going to truly be difference-makers, now or in the near future, with the possible and very remote exceptions of Gordon and Rooker, who I regard as surplus and highly expendable. I'd love to see the FO get a good return in a trade involving them. Unfortunately, most teams have commodity prospects like these.

[mikelink45]

The other part of the equation is Molitor and the coaches plus the opinions of the FO.  I am having a hard time gauging their strategy and perceptions.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

The other part of the equation is Molitor and the coaches plus the opinions of the FO.  I am having a hard time gauging their strategy and perceptions.  

 

The strategy has been hard to see, especially in August when older players were playing, and Astudillo didn't catch the first time he was up.....

[nicksaviking]

 

To trade Kepler, you'd need a team willing to pay for capability, not current performance... kinda like Pressly... except much harder to get, as Pressly's performance was already elite, his numbers just didn't show it yet.

 

I agree that I would want a team to pay for his potential if he's being dealt straight up.

 

However, if the Twins were talking to a team about getting an ace or an in-his-prime elite RH bat and that team wants Kepler as a 2nd or 3rd piece, I wouldn't get too emotional about selling low on him. If the other team gets a bargain in the process, good for them.

[Vanimal46]

I'm surprised by this conversation. Kepler and low value doesn't make sense because he is more valuable this year than the last 2 years. That's why I proposed this in the first place, because he's overall a good player that's progressing in the right direction.

 

I'm also surprised by the move to 1B talk. Some here that have been vocal about moving on from Mauer now want to replace him with an equivalent of Mauer. Seems strange.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm also surprised by the move to 1B talk. Some here that have been vocal about moving on from Mauer now want to replace him with an equivalent of Mauer. Seems strange.

 

I'd just like him to be a rotational guy at 1B so as to be able to rotate others into RF based on matchups. I'd like to see 1B be a quasi DH next year for the Twins; no one has their name written in ink and it's open to anyone capable.

[Twodogs]

Kepler has like a 16.6 K rate which is pretty good, he puts the ball in play as he doesn't strike out much, he also has an 11.2 percent walk rate so he has good plate discipline, and he has a good fly ball rate too, it would seem to me that all of those things would point to fairly big things to come so it seems weird to me that his average is only like .225?  Maybe unlucky??  Anyway, I'd love to see him break out a la Rosario next year.

[Twodogs]

 

Something to think about - if Cave and Kepler are essentially identical hitters when Cave has been in the Majors for 1/2 a season and Kepler for 3 plus seasons, wouldn't it seem logical that Cave has more room/time to improve while Kepler may have hit his potential or close to it? You can't limit the evaluation to where Cave and Kepler are right now. You have to evaluate based on where you think they will be next year and in the years to come. Kepler has had 4 years to hit his ceiling. He may be at it, he may have room to improve; others have taken longer as pointed out by many. Cave is already as good of a hitter. I would say better because he has more power, and the two are roughly equivalent OFs in the field. The evidence suggests that IF Cave is given the same opportunity Kepler has been given that Cave will turn out ot be the better player. 

 

Cave has shown enough to be given the chance to play every day for next year to see if he can get better and cut down on his way too many SOs. Kepler is a nice, average complimentary player. He's exactly the kind of guy who moves ot the bench when someone better comes along. Cave ahs shown enough to think he might be that someone better if given a chance. I think next year is a Battle Royale between Cave, Kepler and Buxton for 2 everyday spots if they all stay in the OF and Cave is the leader in the clubhouse right now. 

 

The solution?  Kepler either beats out Buxton for an OF spot or moves to 1B if Mauer retires. Rosario and Cave start out as the everyday corner OFs (Cave in CF if Buxton can't make it), with Kepler either a 1B/DH/4th OF or the starting RF if Buxton can't make it and Cave has to play CF (Molitor seems to have decided he's better there than Kepler).  My guess is that Mauer retires and Kepler winds up in a 1B/3B/DH group with Austin, Sano and hopefully Escobar coming back from Arizona. No matter what though, Cave plays and is in the lineup almost every day. 

I wonder where the Twins thought Hicks was going to be in a couple of years?  And what did people think of Kepler the first year he was up?

[Battle ur tail off]

I just don't trade the guy when you have a bunch of outfielders, that besides Rosario, look like 4th or 5th outfielder types. Don't put any stock into garbage baseball that Cave is cashing in on. Just watch Kepler take at bats. You should be able to see it with your eyes. He has a plan at the plate and gives you a good at bat every time up. You don't trade that and give the job away to a someone who is at best a 4th outfielder. He costs us very little and would receive very little back for him in a trade. Keep him. It makes zero sense not too. 

You want to trade an outfielder for some real talent, trade the kid in the minors. He would at least net you something decent. Not that I want to do that, but if you wanting to make a move that does something, that is the one. He would get you back some real talent. Kepler gets you another #5 starter prospect. Yippee

[ashbury]

Something to think about - if Cave and Kepler are essentially identical hitters when Cave has been in the Majors for 1/2 a season and Kepler for 3 plus seasons, wouldn't it seem logical that Cave has more room/time to improve while Kepler may have hit his potential or close to it?

It's not an argument I would try to make.

 

It's worth bearing in mind that Kepler is two months younger than Cave. So why does he have more major league experience? Being in the Yankees organization might have robbed Cave of some early opportunity, but if you look at them side by side (since they were in the same age-season each year) when there were near-MLB ready, it's interesting.

 

At age 22, both were playing primarily in AA, and Kepler hit much better there.

 

At age 23, Cave split time between AA and AAA, and put up numbers that were similar to Kepler's in the majors. If Kepler has had more experience in the majors, it's arguable that it's because he earned it. Meanwhile Cave was learning too, just not on the big stage

 

At age 24, Cave again started at AA and got promoted to AAA mid-season, while Kepler was in the majors. Cave's numbers were quite good, but his AAA numbers were even better than at AA, which always raises an eyebrow for me - his batting average when he put the ball in play (BABIP) at AAA was over .400, which is abnormally high, while it had been closer to .300 at AA. I don't believe in luck, in baseball, but some kinds of production don't seem to be sustainable or reproducible consistently, and BABIP far above (or below) .300 is one such thing. Kepler's low BABIP is a long-discussed topic, which I won't belabor now, but his other major league stats, adjusted for the difference in competition level at AA/AAA, were at least as good as Cave's in my opinion.

 

Today, at age 25, Cave has had a nice year splitting between AAA and the majors. Again, his raw numbers look better at the higher league, and again it's built on a somewhat abnormally high BABIP above .350 - he's highest on the team in this odd category, unless you count the departed Ryan LaMarre and a couple of plate appearances by Kyle Gibson. Perhaps he proves to be one of the rare players capable of sustaining that, but I look for his batting line to disappoint somewhat, next season. Kepler by contrast has, no question, stagnated and disappointed this year. Even so, his power production has kept the comparison to Cave close.

 

In this year-by-year comparison, I see less reason to give credit to Cave for having had fewer opportunities at the MLB level. Kepler earned his promotion, Cave lagged by just a little.

 

Forecasting baseball is hard. Anyone really good at it is making a bundle in a major league front office. But I see as much reason to anticipate further professional growth from Max as from Jake.

[yarnivek1972]

It wouldn’t take much of an uptick on Kepler’s part to be a .750 to .800 OPS with 20 plus HR.

 

And as you yourself admit, given Kepler’s very low BABIP and very good plate discipline he’s pretty likely to at least maintain his current level. Cave could easily come crashing down given his peripherals.

[snepp]

The list of players with Cave's current offensive profile is not an impressive one. Cave currently has a 5% walk rate, and a 33.7% strikeout rate.

 

There are only 7 players in the league with a BB rate below 6 and a K rate above 30% with more than 200 plate appearances. Their wRC+ figures (it's like OPS+, 100 being average)...

 

103 - Cave

96

83

73

72

65 - Field (yes, that Field, current Twin)

59

 

Three of those are catchers.

 

Maybe this link will work.

[snepp]

While I'm at it (last time I swear), a couple more sets of figures showing how difficult it is to be on an extreme end of either the walk or strikeout rates and still be even an average hitter, let alone combine both in the same package.

 

Strikeout rate of 30% or higher, 200+ plate appearances, just 11 players above average offensively.

 

Walk rate 5% or lower, 200+ PA's, 10 players.

[h2oface]

Seriously............ it's not that hard.

 

Kirilloff.

 

One r, two l's and two f's.

 

May as learn to spell it right, especially if you are a self proclaimed "real" Twins fan........

[Blackjack]

 

Seriously............ it's not that hard.

 

Kirilloff.

 

One r, two l's and two f's.

 

May as learn to spell it right, especially if you are a self proclaimed "real" Twins fan........

 

Krillo? Kirloft? Cirrilloff? Brillo Cream? Kirtins? Sir Kirloft? Does it really matter? As long as it starts with a K, has an r, an l, an f at the end, and you can tell who the poster is talking about, who cares?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seriously............ it's not that hard.

 

Kirilloff.

 

One r, two l's and two f's.

 

May as learn to spell it right, especially if you are a self proclaimed "real" Twins fan........

 

not sure why it matters all that much.....

[Tomj14]

 

I wonder where the Twins thought Hicks was going to be in a couple of years?  And what did people think of Kepler the first year he was up?

This is the first time in his career that Hicks has played more than 100 games and had a positive WAR He has only played 345 games in three years.

Hicks career WAR 10.5 in 6 years.

Kepler 6.9 in 3 years

 

As good as Hicks has been the last year and a half, I am guessing he would have been traded after 2016 since he was terrible.

[jimmer]

Seriously............ it's not that hard.

 

Kirilloff.

 

One r, two l's and two f's.

 

May as learn to spell it right, especially if you are a self proclaimed "real" Twins fan........

heck, sometimes in here, we see Mauer spelled Mauerer. And he's been with the big club for about 15 years :-)

[h2oface]

 

Krillo? Kirloft? Cirrilloff? Brillo Cream? Kirtins? Sir Kirloft? Does it really matter? As long as it starts with a K, has an r, an l, an f at the end, and you can tell who the poster is talking about, who cares?

You're right. Nevermind. No need to get a guy's name right.

 

It is all about Cepplur on this thread, anyway.

[Tomj14]

 

I don't think you trade any of the OFs. We have one established MLB OF in Rosario and everyone else is a maybe. Cave's in the lead, but no one can predict the outcome. The key is to base playing time on performance and potential and right now that's Cave and Buxton with Kepler slightly behind because he's had more time and has stalled.  

 

All of htis may be moot if Mauer retires. If he does, Kepler probably moves to 1B/DH with Austin unless we get a FA. There isn't much out there so next eyar Kepler goes to 1B and 4th OF. 

I am confused by this logic. The Twins only have one established MLB OF (I think Kepler's three years of 2+ War should be considered established) but you can't trade any of the non-established OF's to upgrade the team? Seems like a good way to have a team stay average?

I am pretty sure the concept of trading Kepler is to upgrade the major league team not for prospects.