Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Biggest Off-Season Need

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Diamondbacks top 4 position players in bWAR right now are controlled for 2019 (and all but Goldschmidt for 2020 or beyond too). On the pitching side, Corbin would be a definite loss, but they've built a pretty deep staff with Greinke too -- they are right next to the Cubs for the top team ERA+ in the NL. I'd be pretty surprised if they went full rebuild right now.

 

That is not what is being hinted at in Arizona.  They have a barren farm, a loaded division, and a number of guys with pretty decent trade value right now.  It's absolutely being discussed.  Whether it happens or not is anyone's guess.

 

If they decide not to rebuild and hope to resign guys, it likely frees up Grienke as a salary dump.  If they rebuild, he gets moved that way too.  I'm guessing he gets dealt sometime this offseason as a way to retain Corbin/Goldschmidt/Pollack.

Edited September 20, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Mike Sixel]

 

Perhaps I could use a history lesson, but wasn't Greinke pushing for a trade out of KC and then wasn't thrilled when it turned out to be Milwaukee? After spending the better part of the last decade in LA and Pheonix I might suspect that mid-western teams make up quite a bit of his no-trade list.

 

But if that's all a load of baloney, cool, I'll take him and his salary, even at that age. They won't be able to spend that money anywhere else.

 

I still want to spend good money on relievers though, and not the kind that have to wait three months to sign and become "bargains" because the other clubs are all weary. They seem to like to sign in groups lately to form a nice back end block, so go get two of Familia, Herrera, Allen, Kimbrel, Britton, Miller, Robertson or Soria. Then get an Adam Warren, David Phelps or Bud Norris for good measure.

 

I too hope we don't hear again next year about what great bargains, and low risk guys, they signed, and how smart it is not to actually improve your team for more than 1 year at a time......

[jtkoupal]

Relief Pitchers. Relief Pitchers. And some more Relief Pitchers, please!

 

Also, another solid starter (1-3 starter) would allow Odorizzi and Pineda to occupy 4-5, which is probably ideal.

 

Some infield insurance is definitely a necessity too. Sanó is not a certainty to return to his All-Star form. Nick Gordon has struggled in AAA. Tyler Austin is a platoon player and Joe Mauer might retire. There only one realistic middle-infield option to start 2019 at the moment, something that will almost certainly be addressed. Certainly, you don't want Eihre Adrianza starting almost every day.

 

A lot needs to be done. There will be money to spend, but there are a lot of holes to fill. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

His offensive numbers are better, granted with considerably fewer at bats. Defensively, where is the change? He was one of the worst shortstops in the league last year and is again this year.

I thought he looked passable last season, and at times pretty good, but if the numbers say he was near at the bottom I won't disagree with that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That is not what is being hinted at in Arizona. They have a barren farm, a loaded division, and a number of guys with pretty decent trade value right now. It's absolutely being discussed. Whether it happens or not is anyone's guess.

 

If they decide not to rebuild and hope to resign guys, it likely frees up Grienke as a salary dump. If they rebuild, he gets moved that way too. I'm guessing he gets dealt sometime this offseason as a way to retain Corbin/Goldschmidt/Pollack.

I think fans / talk radio are quick to discuss extremes like a rebuild in reaction to factors like a poor farm system and falling short of the playoffs, but in practice most teams don't pursue those paths without stronger conditions (like the MLB roster falling apart too). Fans / talk radio seem to underrate the "middle ground" of having a decent MLB roster and being in the contention mix. Their division isn't that loaded -- there is LA, but COL and SF are flawed and SD is still rebuilding. And MIL and STL aren't that scary as wild card competitors either.

 

I could perhaps see them re-signing Corbin, and turning around and offloading Greinke to balance the books. But that's a tricky balancing act -- Corbin might be getting an inflated contract based on this career year, and once they have a deal with Corbin, they will lose a lot of leverage in moving Greinke. And the no-trade clause could really mess with their leverage further -- 15 teams (perhaps including the Twins) might be off the table right away. If they can get nothing back but salary relief for Greinke, or even have to eat some cash, it may not be the best course of action anymore -- letting Corbin walk and keeping Greinke might be better both for their farm system (comp picks for Corbin) and for their long-term financial outlook (Greinke's remaining deal may be shorter than what Corbin gets, and maybe even cheaper in total dollars).

 

I know people have been talking about moving Greinke, but a more realistic target for that kind of salary dump move would proably be a Mike Leake circa 2017 or AJ Burnett circa 2011 type. If I get a moment, I'll look around for some candidates.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perhaps I could use a history lesson, but wasn't Greinke pushing for a trade out of KC and then wasn't thrilled when it turned out to be Milwaukee? After spending the better part of the last decade in LA and Pheonix I might suspect that mid-western teams make up quite a bit of his no-trade list.

 

That's my suspicion too, although it doesn't particularly matter how Greinke felt about his time in KC and MIL. His current salary is high enough that it acts as a de facto no trade clause for a lot of teams near the luxury tax threshold. For example, per this list at Cot's, roughly 12 teams had less "tax space" in 2018 than Greinke's current annual salary:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRghSG2xROOkgctuzj56pUSP6zCxUUQ1i7LND0jnficQ0TPtIY8OhNl3AN_StqMvBCHnO_qOXKZeTbE/pubhtml

 

Not sure how that list will look for 2018, or when/how Greinke's list of 15 teams is set, but it's possible that his no-trade blocks every non-warm-weather team that could take on his salary without too much trouble (like the Twins).

 

The only thing I have read about the clause is that apparently Texas was not included on it last winter, which would conform with this theory (Texas is warm weather and not too close to the luxury tax threshold).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looking for more details on his no-trade, I found this article from 2 years ago: "Diamondbacks Must Admit Defeat This Offseason By Trading Zack Greinke"

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/benberkon/2016/10/11/diamondbacks-must-admit-defeat-trade-zack-greinke/

 

I feel like trading Greinke might be one of those evergreen topics of discussion, regardless of likelihood.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll post this here.....

 

Gus Johnson
1:31 Aside from Kershaw (who will probably resign with the Dodgers?), Patrick Corbin looks like the only high-impact FA pitcher. Would you give him a Yu Darvish-type contract (6 yr/126M)?

 

Keith Law
1:31 I would. I agree on Kershaw, and that Corbin is the best 'real' FA pitcher on the market.

[Battle ur tail off]

You can't do a full teardown, there is nothing left to tear down. 

 

You have to go into next season with the expectation that Sano and Buxton will lead this team. There is really no other way to go about it. If they don't, then figure another 4-5 years to be relevant again. 

 

I'd do whatever it takes to get one of the Mets stud starters. I'd trade any prospect they have other than the SS and the lefthanded outfielder. Twins have a history of ruining kids anyway, what good are they to us? Get a real #1 in here, sign Cruz and pickup the 2 best relievers in free agency. Bam - division title. 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2018 by Battle ur tail off

[Craig Arko]

As much as it pains me to say this, probably a new manager. I also think this could prolong the rebuild another year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think fans / talk radio are quick to discuss extremes like a rebuild in reaction to factors like a poor farm system and falling short of the playoffs, but in practice most teams don't pursue those paths without stronger conditions (like the MLB roster falling apart too). Fans / talk radio seem to underrate the "middle ground" of having a decent MLB roster and being in the contention mix. Their division isn't that loaded -- there is LA, but COL and SF are flawed and SD is still rebuilding. And MIL and STL aren't that scary as wild card competitors either.

 

Your spin is as optimistic as possible.  I'd look at a team that got a lot of career pitching years and a few Nick Ahmed/David Peralta spikes and say things went about as well as humanly possible and they still choked away a playoff spot to a league you say isn't that scary.  

 

There is no immediate help on the way, no budget room, and a near certainty that htey lose either Grienke or Corbin.  Not to mention Pollack or other notable parts.  

 

I agree, talk radio and fans can often be too black and white, but their basis for doing so in this case seems to have some sound footing.  We're all speculating, so I could absolutely turn out to be wrong and Grienke is unavailable, but it's the first phone I'd pick up and try.

Edited September 20, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[nicksaviking]

 

As much as it pains me to say this, probably a new manager. I also think this could prolong the rebuild another year.

 

I actually like the momentum shift that so often accompanies a new manager. It seems to me "surprise" teams commonly have new managers. I'm not even necessarily saying it's the old manger's fault or the new manager's doing, it's just that all-to-often something intangible seems to take place unexpectedly and in a positive direction. It happened with Molitor's first year on the job in fact.

[yarnivek1972]

I actually like the momentum shift that so often accompanies a new manager. It seems to me "surprise" teams commonly have new managers. I'm not even necessarily saying it's the old manger's fault or the new manager's doing, it's just that all-to-often something intangible seems to take place unexpectedly and in a positive direction. It happened with Molitor's first year on the job in fact.

And Tom Kelly’s...

[Physics Guy]

 

Yep just like a trip to Aldi, "aww just toss it in the cart"

I don't disagree that it's picking up quite a bunch, but they have less than 50M in salary even with likely arbitration signings.  They could legitimately come close to affording that list.  I personally would prioritize it as Donaldson, Iglesias, Herera, SP and lastly Pollock.  I really like Pollock since he's a RH and can play CF, but realize OF is pretty low priority.

[ChrisKnutson]

What expiring assets are left? And why not buy one really good free agent, that will be here for the next four or five years, so you aren't trying to fill as many holes when Lewis and kiriloff are here?

And, I don't think I said I'd try to buy a whole team..... That's not going to happen.

By “expiring assets,” I actually meant Castro, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, and Reed, sorry for the misunderstanding.

 

And while I’m against a over paying for the hell of it, I understand that’s how free agency typically goes, so if we are going to hand out a multi-year contract (2-3 yrs), I’d prefer we hand it to proven bats like Wilson Ramos and Nelson Cruz.

[glunn]

 

Tom Froemming
How many times have I got to say this? Willians Astudillo lifetime contract. That's item No. 1.

 

This, plus the same for Escobar, then go from there.

[DocBauer]

1st, keeping with the initial thread, the absolute #1 priority for the Twins in 2019, and going forward, is developing and maximizing what you have NOW.

 

I've read a lot of great posts and ideas here. And on the surface, I understand comments about improving the "talent level" across the board.

 

But that's NOT the problem. Yes, there are question marks all over the place. But pause your angst and frustration from such a mixed up and disappointing season for a moment to look at the "talent" we are talking about!

 

Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in the OF with Cave as the 4th man. Couple of seasons ago, a lot of people wanted to trade Rosario. Would you now? Kepler needs to even out his 3 year splits and he's very, very good! Uber prospect Buxton needs to be healthy, just find a consistent approach where bat meets ball better and hitting .250 he's a borderline stud.

 

Austin is interesting. Polanco has a big bat, loaded with potential, is an OK SS who is better as a 2B, and Sano? You really want to give up on his talent and potential after this weird and crummy season? I sure dont!

 

1] Said it before, will say it again, get Hunter to spend time with Buxton this off season to talk about everything from hard times, to plate approach. To preserving his body.

 

2] Get SOMEONE who you trust, a Latin coach/instructor, to work with Sano and continue the work he put in with Ft Myers this season.

 

3] Examine your ML and milb roster of coaches and make sure a Latin presence of value is at each and every level. As well as instructors. With so much Latin talent in the system, I'm still wondering if we're doing enough in that area.

 

4] Bring in a pair of quality infielders. Bring in a proven SS to allow Polanco to move to 2B. OR, bring in a high quality 2B...like Castro, as has been mentioned elsewhere...and live with offense vs better defense. (I prefer the better defense route). Iglesias is a guy I'd strongly consider.

 

5] Re-sign Escobar if you can. Pay him like a starter because hes going to play almost daily. He can be a super utility player or daily player depending how things shake out.

 

6] Look really hard at adding a high quality SP via trade or FA. I love the Corbin idea, and dont buy the $25M per idea considering the changes in the marketplace.

 

7] Trade or FA, add one dynamite arm for the bullpen.

 

Is this a lot? No. It really isn't when you look deep. A pair of quality INF that does nothing to break the bank. And 2 pitchers, SP and RP, that also dont blow up the payroll

Especially when you look at the state of financial affairs after this season.

 

You're adding 4 players on 2-4 year deals and still probably holding your payroll in 2019 below the 2018 numbers.

 

The rest is infrastructure.

 

And if you really are worried about payroll...again, still lower than 2018 almost without a doubt...Reed and Odorizzi come off the books, potentially, after 2019.

[wabene]

 

I don't disagree that it's picking up quite a bunch, but they have less than 50M in salary even with likely arbitration signings.  They could legitimately come close to affording that list.  I personally would prioritize it as Donaldson, Iglesias, Herera, SP and lastly Pollock.  I really like Pollock since he's a RH and can play CF, but realize OF is pretty low priority.

I think money is just one factor. They definitely have set themselves up well in that department. My reference to a shopping spree is they don't just get to choose what they put in the cart but the products have a say plus there is only one of each on the shelf so you have competition from other shoppers to contend with. It sure is fun to imagine your ultimate FA team but quite another to actually pull it off.

[Doctor Wu]

At this point in time I say no to big contracts and aging free agents. The Twins should try and target the hidden gems out there, players who could thrive if given the opportunity. I'm thinking of players like Max Muncy or Scooter Gennett, or Blake Treinen, or even an older reclamation project like Johnny Venters or Edwin Jackson. Even a Daniel Palka (now with 26 homes!) type can be useful. No sense spending big money on the Logan Morrisons of the world There's gold in them hills! Just have to dig deeper.

[Rosterman]

I'm still with the Front Office and looking at the team as how it might vision out in 2020 and 2021 and what needs to be done to get there and who, from the big list of prospects, may be the impact pieces that can the team to go all-the-way, in 2021.

 

So that means one more hard look at Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Berrios. Also Hildenberger, May and Rogers. Do you extend them all?

 

It is making decisions on Odorizzi and Gibson. Are they pieces to be traded between now and mid-season or worth tendering for 3+ years.

 

It is giving time to a variety of pitchers who COULD be here in 2020 or beyond. John Curtiss, Fernando Romero, Gabriel Moya, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell. Andrew Vasquez, Adalberto Mejia.

 

There are so many prospects that SHOULD make the majors in the next 2-3 years. ortvedt, Lewis, Krilloff, Larnach, Gordon, Graterol, Rooker, Javier, Severino. Alcala, Maciel, Haley, Miranda, Baladozic, Arraez, Baddoo, Celestino, Enlow, Bechtold, Paul and more. The minors look very very good for potential guys who will make a trip to the majors.

 

Oh, Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax, too. Maybe Felix Jorge is still in the mix.

 

Let the front office go with the plan. Maybe supplement the weakness in the infield today with some placeholder signings. But see what the kids can do. It is a weak division. The Twins could actually win and not die (the starting prospects are gems). 

[ChrisKnutson]

That is not what is being hinted at in Arizona.  They have a barren farm, a loaded division, and a number of guys with pretty decent trade value right now.  It's absolutely being discussed.  Whether it happens or not is anyone's guess.

 

If they decide not to rebuild and hope to resign guys, it likely frees up Grienke as a salary dump.  If they rebuild, he gets moved that way too.  I'm guessing he gets dealt sometime this offseason as a way to retain Corbin/Goldschmidt/Pollack.

I gave some thought about the D-Back’s situation, and I believe the only way for them to retain Goldschmidt is to trade Greinke, and maybe even Ketel Marte. And if the Twins were to get involved, I’d rather they pass on Greinke, and offer Gibson and Cave (or Wade) for a SS in Marte, because I think I’d be a good deal for both clubs. The D-Backs get cheap replacements for Corbin and Pollock, along with the financial flexibility to extend Goldschmidt and sign a couple less expensive FA, while the Twins would get a true SS, with potential at the plate, and reason to finally move Polanco to 2nd.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm still with the Front Office and looking at the team as how it might vision out in 2020 and 2021 and what needs to be done to get there and who, from the big list of prospects, may be the impact pieces that can the team to go all-the-way, in 2021.

 

So that means one more hard look at Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Berrios. Also Hildenberger, May and Rogers. Do you extend them all?

 

It is making decisions on Odorizzi and Gibson. Are they pieces to be traded between now and mid-season or worth tendering for 3+ years.

 

It is giving time to a variety of pitchers who COULD be here in 2020 or beyond. John Curtiss, Fernando Romero, Gabriel Moya, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell. Andrew Vasquez, Adalberto Mejia.

 

There are so many prospects that SHOULD make the majors in the next 2-3 years. ortvedt, Lewis, Krilloff, Larnach, Gordon, Graterol, Rooker, Javier, Severino. Alcala, Maciel, Haley, Miranda, Baladozic, Arraez, Baddoo, Celestino, Enlow, Bechtold, Paul and more. The minors look very very good for potential guys who will make a trip to the majors.

 

Oh, Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax, too. Maybe Felix Jorge is still in the mix.

 

Let the front office go with the plan. Maybe supplement the weakness in the infield today with some placeholder signings. But see what the kids can do. It is a weak division. The Twins could actually win and not die (the starting prospects are gems). 

 

two more years of not trying to win? I hope not. I hope that is not the plan. If so, just trade Gibson this off season. 

[DocBauer]

Agree with all of this with one honest question - why does everyone asssume Kepler is a starting OF over Cave? Cave has been seriously better with the bat this year and seems as good a corner OF. Kepler has had an OPS+ below 100 each of the last years and they all look the same - .733, .737, .734 OPS in the last 3 years. Kepler has had a chance to show what he can do and it looks like we now know what that looks like - roughly .235/.315/.420 (.735), 16-20 HRs, 1.5-2:1 K/BB. Not bad I guess, but the definition of a 4th OF/part time DH on a contending team.

 

Cave may be no better or even worse long term but at least he's been better this year in a one half season small sample size. .257/.300/.458 (.758), 11 Hrs, all in half a year's worth of at bats. The 6:1 K/BB ratio is troubling but that's been coming down as he plays more. Hard for me to see much of a defensive difference, they're both strong corner OFs, kind of exposed when they have to play CF.

 

I think 2 of the OF positions for next year are pretty set and it's Rosario and Cave. Not Kepler. I think he's in a fight with Buxton for the 3rd spot and I think he's going to lose that fight to Buxton's glove. He'll stay as the 4th OF over Grossman and/or be part of a 1B/DH/3B/Bench bat group with Austin, Sano Mauer and a FA (Escobar?), with more playing time if Mauer retires. Performance matters. Cave has won a chance to start next year based on performance. Kepler hasn't.

Actually a very interesting question, and one I hadn't thought about. I think the assumption of Kepler over Cave is two fold. 1] He's considered the better defender. 2] POTENTIALLY he's the better hitter, at least in regard to contact and OB. Fair or not, I do see Kepler as the more talented player. But I've been pretty impressed by Cave this far.

[cmoss84]

I agree with those of you who are valuing quality bats AND flexibility. I would love to sign Marwin Gonzalez and Eddie Escobar.

 

I also hope we get in on the Patrick Corbin bidding war. 

Definitely a crazy year for free agents!

[nicksaviking]

 

At this point in time I say no to big contracts and aging free agents. The Twins should try and target the hidden gems out there, players who could thrive if given the opportunity. I'm thinking of players like Max Muncy or Scooter Gennett, or Blake Treinen, or even an older reclamation project like Johnny Venters or Edwin Jackson. Even a Daniel Palka (now with 26 homes!) type can be useful. No sense spending big money on the Logan Morrisons of the world There's gold in them hills! Just have to dig deeper.

 

While I'd love for the Twins to nail the science on these kinds of discoveries, I don't think it's logical to expect it. I Max Muncy could just as easily have been Jordan Schaffer. Scooter Gennett could have been Taylor Motter and Blake Treinen might as well have been Brandon Kintzler.

 

No one's ever too thrilled when they get these guys off of the scrap heap and their success rate has to be 25% tops. And by success, I mean barely justified in sticking on a 40-man.

[yarnivek1972]

Agree with all of this with one honest question - why does everyone asssume Kepler is a starting OF over Cave? Cave has been seriously better with the bat this year and seems as good a corner OF. Kepler has had an OPS+ below 100 each of the last years and they all look the same - .733, .737, .734 OPS in the last 3 years. Kepler has had a chance to show what he can do and it looks like we now know what that looks like - roughly .235/.315/.420 (.735), 16-20 HRs, 1.5-2:1 K/BB. Not bad I guess, but the definition of a 4th OF/part time DH on a contending team.

 

Cave may be no better or even worse long term but at least he's been better this year in a one half season small sample size. .257/.300/.458 (.758), 11 Hrs, all in half a year's worth of at bats. The 6:1 K/BB ratio is troubling but that's been coming down as he plays more. Hard for me to see much of a defensive difference, they're both strong corner OFs, kind of exposed when they have to play CF.

 

I think 2 of the OF positions for next year are pretty set and it's Rosario and Cave. Not Kepler. I think he's in a fight with Buxton for the 3rd spot and I think he's going to lose that fight to Buxton's glove. He'll stay as the 4th OF over Grossman and/or be part of a 1B/DH/3B/Bench bat group with Austin, Sano Mauer and a FA (Escobar?), with more playing time if Mauer retires. Performance matters. Cave has won a chance to start next year based on performance. Kepler hasn't.

You answered your own question in the section I highlighted. 6 to 1 K to BB ratio. Kepler dropped his K rate from 20% to 16% and upped his walk rate from 8 % to almost 12%. Plate discipline and pitch recognition is one of the hardest things for young players to master. Discarding someone who pretty much has at age 25 would be beyond dumb IMO. Is there room for Kepler to improve? Certainly. But he proved this season with his improvement vs LHP that he is capable of making adjustments to improve. I’m not qualified to say what adjustment he needs to make to take the next step. Hopefully, someone employed by the Twins is. But the gifts and the talent and the “savvy” are clearly there. He has a 2.4 bWAR. That is a starter, not a 4th OFer.

[Teflon]

Twins biggest off-season need: Replacement season ticket holders.

[ashbury]

Twins biggest off-season need: Replacement season ticket holders.

I see no reason this can't be addressed within the organization. There are many fans at Rochester who deserve a promotion, and probably quite a few at Chattanooga who could make the jump easily. They have thriving economies and surely some number there can afford $2000 in support of the big league team. Come on, FO, let's make this happen.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I'm still with the Front Office and looking at the team as how it might vision out in 2020 and 2021 and what needs to be done to get there and who, from the big list of prospects, may be the impact pieces that can the team to go all-the-way, in 2021.

 

So that means one more hard look at Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Berrios. Also Hildenberger, May and Rogers. Do you extend them all?

 

It is making decisions on Odorizzi and Gibson. Are they pieces to be traded between now and mid-season or worth tendering for 3+ years.

 

It is giving time to a variety of pitchers who COULD be here in 2020 or beyond. John Curtiss, Fernando Romero, Gabriel Moya, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell. Andrew Vasquez, Adalberto Mejia.

 

There are so many prospects that SHOULD make the majors in the next 2-3 years. ortvedt, Lewis, Krilloff, Larnach, Gordon, Graterol, Rooker, Javier, Severino. Alcala, Maciel, Haley, Miranda, Baladozic, Arraez, Baddoo, Celestino, Enlow, Bechtold, Paul and more. The minors look very very good for potential guys who will make a trip to the majors.

 

Oh, Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax, too. Maybe Felix Jorge is still in the mix.

 

Let the front office go with the plan. Maybe supplement the weakness in the infield today with some placeholder signings. But see what the kids can do. It is a weak division. The Twins could actually win and not die (the starting prospects are gems). 

Go ahead and take your list of minor leaguers there, put the names into a hat and pull out 4 names. That is how many will stick, now put those 4 into a hat and pull out 1 more name. That is how many will be better than league average. Don't let the Twins love of anyone with a pulse in the minor leagues cloud you judgement. They haven't developed any real successful players for YEARS.