Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Biggest Off-Season Need

[Vanimal46]

Arizona may give up Grienke as a partial dump. They simply can't afford Corbin/Pollack/Goldschmidt and to keep him.

 

You'll have to give up something, but if the Twins agree to take his whole contract the price might be pretty reasonable. (I think it may even be cheap)

The Twins should use their financial flexibility to their advantage. Take on the full amount of a contract for a cheaper price. Something to think about with Grienke, or even Scherzer if the Nationals decide to blow everything up.

[ChrisKnutson]

Lots and lots more talent...... 1B, 2B, SS, CF, DH, and at least one more SP they can count on....oh, and 2-3 RPs. So, ya, lots of things..... but if I have to pick one thing to add, it would be a SP that is a 2/3 for the next 4 years.....give or take. That would be huge for this team. Kiriloff and Lewis are coming, as are Rooker and Weil and Gordon. What they really need is a really good starting pitcher (or 2 very good RPs).

Or how about we actually take a step back for one season (maybe half?) and focus on cleansing the roster of expiring assets, along with aquiring young ML talent.

 

Rather than signing 10 FA not named Manny Machado this offseason, I’d prefer the Twins FO to be out in the trade market targeting any one of these guys:

 

(ARI) (SS/2B) Ketel Marte

(BAL) (1B/OF) Trey Mancini

(TBR) (RHP) Yonny Chirinos

(OAK) (RHP) Frankie Montas

(NYY) (LHP) Justus Sheffield

(NYY) (RHP) Chance Adams

(HOU) (C/OF) Garret Stubbs

(PHI) (3B/SS) J.P. Crawford

(TBR) (UTL) Joey Wendle

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Twins should use their financial flexibility to their advantage. Take on the full amount of a contract for a cheaper price. Something to think about with Grienke, or even Scherzer if the Nationals decide to blow everything up.

 

That's the method behind my madness!

[Platoon]

You cannot just go out and get a new team. Therefore I only see one avenue to turn this roster into a competitive team next year. It starts with the players who were supposed to carry us. Sano, Buxton, and Berrios. Assuming Castro is back and healthy, him and Garver are going to have to do. I would hang on to Astudillo this year for insurance, since both Garver and Castro are not a sure thing. I find a defensive SS and move Polanco to second. (He should be there already) if I can field an OF of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler with Cave the fourth man, I would live with that. Plus Austin plays some OF. I am not a fan of Sano's or Austin's gloves, but I think I would start there if Sano shows up IN SHAPE. A good SS and Polanco playing closer to first will mitigated Austins lack of leather. Robbie leaves and we find another decent corner IF to rotate at DH with Sano and Austin. As usual the bull pen will be a crapshoot, and I still don't like Hildy as a closer. I still would prefer May to close in this current group. Finally they will have to,spend some money on SP. I don't know how else to acquire it. I do look for Romero to be in the rotation. I know this looks a lot like a current roster, but we still need Buxton and Sano to produce. If they don't, this whole team basically implodes, yet again. And finally, for goodness sakes, get a new manager. I cannot stress this enough. Anyone who sees Jorge Polanco as a MLB SS, has no business managing a team in this league!

[Vanimal46]

Or how about we actually take a step back for one season (maybe half?) and focus on cleansing the roster of expiring assets, along with aquiring young ML talent

Did you miss the 2018 season? Other than acquiring young ML talent that's exactly what they did. Edit: I take that back, they DID acquire young ML talent too (Austin and Cave)

 

For all of those players you suggested, that's going to take, you know, talent. There's not much of that left at the ML level.

Edited September 19, 2018 by Vanimal46

[ashbury]

The 2018 Twins are below league-average in runs scored.

 

They are also worse than average in runs against.

 

Manny Machado or Clayton Kershaw, alone, would not fix things.

 

I'm unable to address the question as stated. The needs are too vast.

 

Or, maybe I'll address it as: The Twins biggest off-season need is for the new front office to distinguish themselves, after a couple of years of seeming analysis resulting in some hopeful groundwork being laid in the minors, but only so-so results (if that) in the majors.

[Physics Guy]

 

No one else may agree with this, but I would put Lewis at SS and leave him there.

 

 

He's not ready yet. No reason to burn away three years of control while his bat waits to catch up.

I think Buxton would be a strong indicator of this. 

[Physics Guy]

 

On Corbin....MLB.com is predicting around a 150MM or more contract....since he's younger than Darvish....

And it sounds like he is from NY so I heard that the Yankees will probably push to sign him. 

[Physics Guy]

Sign Keuchel or Morton, Herrera, Donaldson, Iglesias and Pollock.

 

SP - Keuchel/Morton, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Romero/Stewart/Pineda/Gonsalves

RP - Herrera, Hildenberger, Rogers, May, Reed, ?,?

C - Castro, Garver (Astudillo in AAA)

1B - Sano, Kepler

2B - Polanco

SS - Iglesias, Adrianza

3B - Donaldson, Sano

OF - Rosario, Buxton, Pollock, Kepler, Cave

DH - Rotation of Donaldson, Sano and OF'ers

 

I don't know if this is feasible salary-wise, but I do know that they are shedding a ton of salary this year.

[Mike Sixel]

Or how about we actually take a step back for one season (maybe half?) and focus on cleansing the roster of expiring assets, along with aquiring young ML talent.

 

Rather than signing 10 FA not named Manny Machado this offseason, I’d prefer the Twins FO to be out in the trade market targeting any one of these guys:

 

(ARI) (SS/2B) Ketel Marte

(BAL) (1B/OF) Trey Mancini

(TBR) (RHP) Yonny Chirinos

(OAK) (RHP) Frankie Montas

(NYY) (LHP) Justus Sheffield

(NYY) (RHP) Chance Adams

(HOU) (C/OF) Garret Stubbs

(PHI) (3B/SS) J.P. Crawford

(TBR) (UTL) Joey Wendle

What expiring assets are left? And why not buy one really good free agent, that will be here for the next four or five years, so you aren't trying to fill as many holes when Lewis and kiriloff are here?

 

And, I don't think I said I'd try to buy a whole team..... That's not going to happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arizona may give up Grienke as a partial dump. They simply can't afford Corbin/Pollack/Goldschmidt and to keep him.

 

You'll have to give up something, but if the Twins agree to take his whole contract the price might be pretty reasonable. (I think it may even be cheap)

Corbin is a FA this winter, and if MLBTR's $150 mil estimate is remotely correct, Arizona may be unable to retain him with or without Greinke, or may decide to let him go -- and Greinke wouldn't seem so bad of an alternative at 3/100. Pollock is going to be 31 next year and is 3 years removed from being a star, so I'm not sure he will get that much. And Goldschmidt isn't a FA until after 2019 -- seems like they could keep Greinke at least for one more year, and of course the 2 remaining years may not be too onerous by that point if they decide to keep him beyond that.

 

FWIW, Greinke has a limited no-trade, able to block deals to 15 clubs, and if the Twins are on that, I'd guess the idea is moot as well.

 

I like the idea in theory, but in practice these deals seem hard to actually pull off. How many good players are salary dumped by good teams? When the Phillies traded Hamels, they were pretty bad and clearly rebuilding. A competitive team may not be so eager to try that maneuver.

 

I like the idea of investigating Greinke, but we should probably be prepared to enact a plan B instead.

[MABB1959]

I would say first a consistent line-up. Guys who know they will play every day and fans can count on.  Starting with a typical power hitting 1st baseman who bats 4th or 5th.  Move Polanco to 2nd and up in the batting order, SS I would go with Lewis and get him started (let's try for once to get them while they are young and learn to play at this level), 3rd Sano.  Catching someone who can call a good game and throw.  Outfield Rosario batting 3rd, Buxton batting 1st.  A real true DH or 2.  One for lefties and one for righties.  Right field Kepler should be fine.  So we have 5 pieces so far?

Edited September 20, 2018 by MABB1959

[USAFChief]

Sign Keuchel or Morton, Herrera, Donaldson, Iglesias and Pollock.

 

SP - Keuchel/Morton, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Romero/Stewart/Pineda/Gonsalves

RP - Herrera, Hildenberger, Rogers, May, Reed, ?,?

C - Castro, Garver (Astudillo in AAA)

1B - Sano, Kepler

2B - Polanco

SS - Iglesias, Adrianza

3B - Donaldson, Sano

OF - Rosario, Buxton, Pollock, Kepler, Cave

DH - Rotation of Donaldson, Sano and OF'ers

 

I don't know if this is feasible salary-wise, but I do know that they are shedding a ton of salary this year.

I could live with that. Morton over Keuchel.

 

Big fan of signing Donaldson and crossing our fingers he turns up healthy. He could end up a bust, or the best signing of the winter. Might as well take a shot at greatness if you’re the Twins. A couple middling FAs won’t do it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sounds like Morton may retire, or just return to the Astros for another year (maybe on a qualifying offer?). Seems doubtful he'd want to come here.

[wabene]

Sign Keuchel or Morton, Herrera, Donaldson, Iglesias and Pollock.

 

SP - Keuchel/Morton, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Romero/Stewart/Pineda/Gonsalves

RP - Herrera, Hildenberger, Rogers, May, Reed, ?,?

C - Castro, Garver (Astudillo in AAA)

1B - Sano, Kepler

2B - Polanco

SS - Iglesias, Adrianza

3B - Donaldson, Sano

OF - Rosario, Buxton, Pollock, Kepler, Cave

DH - Rotation of Donaldson, Sano and OF'ers

 

I don't know if this is feasible salary-wise, but I do know that they are shedding a ton of salary this year.

Yep just like a trip to Aldi, "aww just toss it in the cart"

[Han Joelo]

I'm pretty perplexed, to be honest.  Not sure I'm ready to put my faith in Buxton/Sano again.  Without them emerging as superstars, I guess I'd rather watch a minor 'teardown,' with young players taking their lump, rather than a team of mercenaries.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if saving that extra year of control on Buxton dovetailed with keeping him healthy and underwraps--so as to salvage some trade value.  Trading Buxton and Sano might seem like a ridiculous sell-low proposition, but if there is any tearing down to be done, I would start there.

 

I hate to wait for the future, but maybe that is the way they play this.

[Thrylos]

This is not hard at all.

 

An Ace.  A real one.

 

As it has been the last 10 years or so.

 

The rest shall follow.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yep just like a trip to Aldi, "aww just toss it in the cart"

Was Aldi last offseason? Maybe the Twins need to aim for Lunds and Byerlys this offseason.

 

I wonder if TR still pops into Dollar General every winter, out of habit.

[mikelink45]

Bullpen.  This league has changed the pitching equation.  KC started it, Tampa Bay put a new twist on it and now we have openers and closers, we want our primary pitcher to go 4 good innings, we need to have relief pitchers cover innings 1,6,7,8,9.  That means 5 relief pitchers a game unless things go bad.  Since relief pitchers also need relief we need to let them have off a game or two.  So what we need is a 25 man roster of relief pitchers who can also play other positions like Gimenez!  Or Ohtani.  

 

When I look at the game stats for a 10 day period the relief pitchers are not shut down pitchers day after day.  Hildenberg is stretched for outings and certainly as a closer.  

[Mike Sixel]

What is left to tear down? Gibson? The OF is not old, Sano, Polanco and Garver.... Austin. I mean, what is left to tear down?

[Vanimal46]

Was Aldi last offseason? Maybe the Twins need to aim for Lunds and Byerlys this offseason.

 

I wonder if TR still pops into Dollar General every winter, out of habit.

He left his ultra platinum membership card for the new regime... And they found a couple of bargains like Ryan LaMarre! And Annibal Sanchez!

 

Except they kept the receipt and returned Annibal

Edited September 20, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Kelly Vance]

 

Tangibly, I think they need to identify a reliable big RH bat. I'm not giving up on Sano or Buxton, but they need someone else they can be reasonably confident won't falter. And go crazy on free agent relievers, but unlike last year, get the high velocity variety this time.

 

Intangibly, they need new energy. This team never looked like a confident contender at any point of this season. They need to get someone or do something to kick-start the enthusiasm again. Not with the fans, just with the players. Winning is all you need to breed enthusiasm with the fans.

Sign Rick Dempsey as a backup catcher. Solves both problems. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I like the idea of investigating Greinke, but we should probably be prepared to enact a plan B instead.

 

I would venture to guess this could be said of virtually every post postulating about offseason moves for their favorite baseball team.  Sorta misses the point.

 

I can tell you that AZ sports radio has been talking about the need to deal Grienke for about two years now.  The biggest mark against my thinking is probably that the D-backs may not be retaining any of their key players and about to embark on a serious rebuild.  In that case, Grienke is still available, but perhaps for different reasons and with more willingness by the club to retain salary to improve return.

Edited September 20, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would venture to guess this could be said of virtually every post postulating about offseason moves for their favorite baseball team. Sorta misses the point.

I was just cautioning that getting Greinke right now might look deceptively simple, but in fact it probably has comparable difficulty as signing Machado (especially with that no-trade clause looming). I think that's worth noting, as opposed to a plan that, say, targets a group of 4 mid-tier FA or something.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can tell you that AZ sports radio has been talking about the need to deal Grienke for about two years now. The biggest mark against my thinking is probably that the D-backs may not be retaining any of their key players and about to embark on a serious rebuild. In that case, Grienke is still available, but perhaps for different reasons and with more willingness by the club to retain salary to improve return.

The Diamondbacks top 4 position players in bWAR right now are controlled for 2019 (and all but Goldschmidt for 2020 or beyond too). On the pitching side, Corbin would be a definite loss, but they've built a pretty deep staff with Greinke too -- they are right next to the Cubs for the top team ERA+ in the NL. I'd be pretty surprised if they went full rebuild right now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Expiring deals (off top of my head):

 

Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, eSan, Castro, Reed.

 

Biggest need? Why, another Primary of course; they can't go into 2019 with just Kohl Stewart as the only primary. J/k

 

I'm guessing they decline Ervin and Morrison's option and just roll into 2019 with a league low payroll (certainly bottom 5) and a lot of playing time for youngsters and reclamation projects, along with some more analytic experimentation in mind. Given where they are at this moment, it wouldn't be the worst plan. As someone said, there's just too much to do now. Polanco took a big step backward, Mauer will retire, and aside from Sano and Austin, who are basically part timers in my opinion, the team pretty much needs a whole new infield. Not to mention another middle of the order bat, not to mention getting Buxton straightened out, and most importantly, needing to fill out half of a pitching staff that has no closer or no ace. The front office will trade some guys at the deadline again next year, scratch out another 70-some wins with smoke and mirrors, and the media will heap praise upon them, given their constraints as a small market franchise trying to compete in a division that has a good team like Cleveland in it... but call me an optimist.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins should use their financial flexibility to their advantage. Take on the full amount of a contract for a cheaper price. Something to think about with Grienke, or even Scherzer if the Nationals decide to blow everything up.

Greinke might be a long shot, but Scherzer is a virtual impossibility. Arguably the best pitcher in MLB, could win a 3rd consecutive Cy Young -- I can't even begin to imagine what kind of package they would demand in trade, even if they somehow decided they didn't want to pair him with a young talent like Juan Soto for the foreseeable future. (FWIW, Scherzer also earns full no-trade rights at the end of the 2019 season.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Bullpen.  This league has changed the pitching equation.  KC started it, Tampa Bay put a new twist on it and now we have openers and closers, we want our primary pitcher to go 4 good innings, we need to have relief pitchers cover innings 1,6,7,8,9.  That means 5 relief pitchers a game unless things go bad.  Since relief pitchers also need relief we need to let them have off a game or two.  So what we need is a 25 man roster of relief pitchers who can also play other positions like Gimenez!  Or Ohtani.  

 

When I look at the game stats for a 10 day period the relief pitchers are not shut down pitchers day after day.  Hildenberg is stretched for outings and certainly as a closer.  

 

I personally would argue that our mid 2000s pen started it (though to be fair, I don't think we figured that out)... we were constantly outperforming our pythag during that time. 

[yarnivek1972]

Expiring deals (off top of my head):

 

Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, eSan, Castro, Reed.

 

Biggest need? Why, another Primary of course; they can't go into 2019 with just Kohl Stewart as the only primary. J/k

 

I'm guessing they decline Ervin and Morrison's option and just roll into 2019 with a league low payroll (certainly bottom 5) and a lot of playing time for youngsters and reclamation projects, along with some more analytic experimentation in mind. Given where they are at this moment, it wouldn't be the worst plan. As someone said, there's just too much to do now. Polanco took a big step backward, Mauer will retire, and aside from Sano and Austin, who are basically part timers in my opinion, the team pretty much needs a whole new infield. Not to mention another middle of the order bat, not to mention getting Buxton straightened out, and most importantly, needing to fill out half of a pitching staff that has no closer or no ace. The front office will trade some guys at the deadline again next year, scratch out another 70-some wins with smoke and mirrors, and the media will heap praise upon them, given their constraints as a small market franchise trying to compete in a division that has a good team like Cleveland in it... but call me an optimist.

His offensive numbers are better, granted with considerably fewer at bats. Defensively, where is the change? He was one of the worst shortstops in the league last year and is again this year.

[nicksaviking]

Perhaps I could use a history lesson, but wasn't Greinke pushing for a trade out of KC and then wasn't thrilled when it turned out to be Milwaukee? After spending the better part of the last decade in LA and Pheonix I might suspect that mid-western teams make up quite a bit of his no-trade list.

 

But if that's all a load of baloney, cool, I'll take him and his salary, even at that age. They won't be able to spend that money anywhere else.

 

I still want to spend good money on relievers though, and not the kind that have to wait three months to sign and become "bargains" because the other clubs are all weary. They seem to like to sign in groups lately to form a nice back end block, so go get two of Familia, Herrera, Allen, Kimbrel, Britton, Miller, Robertson or Soria. Then get an Adam Warren, David Phelps or Bud Norris for good measure.