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Article: Where Are The Twins Getting It Wrong?


Nick Nelson

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Are you saying losing Rodney, Pressley, and Escobar is enough to turn the 40 man from a playoff contender to a tire fire?  If not, then....yes....you are being inconsistent.  If you're saying, yes - those three players are that much of a difference, well then we can talk about that.  Because I think that position is demonstrably misguided.

 

Reality is that this is basically the same group, just swap out Lynn, Pressley, Rodney, Escobar, and Dozier for Austin, Forsythe, Drake, and DeJong.  I don't see that as a terribly meaningful swap.  Certainly not the difference between being awful and being a contender.  

 

If you're going to bash the FO for not being wise enough to see the WS contender they had in July and then turn around a month and a half later and claim the 40 man roster is a Titanic....you're going to have to do better than "But what about Rodney!"  

 

Your views don't mesh.  The only thing consistent is that you want to bash the FO, but your justifications for doing so are basically contradictions.

I think the team took the trade of Escobar pretty hard. I think that could affect their play, absolutely. The edge is gone. Maybe next spring can be a new start.

 

Until Escobar and Pressly were traded that night, I thought the team had the same "team" quality that they had in 2017, and sure, I thought they were good, people can disagree, but I did not think they were on the level of the best teams. Lots of posters here gave up on the team in 2017, too, and I disagreed then as well.

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I think the team took the trade of Escobar pretty hard. I think that could affect their play, absolutely. The edge is gone. Maybe next spring can be a new start.

Until Escobar and Pressly were traded that night, I thought the team had the same "team" quality that they had in 2017, and sure, I thought they were good, people can disagree, but I did not think they were on the level of the best teams. Lots of posters here gave up on the team in 2017, too, and I disagreed then as well.

 

We seem to be talking about two different things. You are talking about the way the team is playing but I'm talking about the talent on the roster. What do you think of the talent on the roster today? What do you think of the talent on the roster July 25th?

Edited by TheLeviathan
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Twins starting pitching will not match Cleveland in the next couple of years, that is a given. However the Cleveland bullpen is no prize and getting worse, unlike a couple of years ago. Trading Pressly (which was the one move I had doubts about) has cost the Twins as they would now be on their way to a shutdown bullpen(if not one close). With Rodgers and Hildenberger and a couple of more pieces, this would be a bullpen you would have to respect in how you manage the game.

Rant warning

This is one of my biggest issues with Molitor. He does not seem to recognize that you have to play a different game against the clubs that have shutdown bullpens, you have to play to score early and often and to be ahead(by as much as possible) after 5 innings. Tampa Bay has figured this out, and their bullpen has masked many other issues with that ballclub. Until Molitor learns to manage differently against different clubs, Twins will never by a well above .500 team(no matter what their talent level. Just change the Twins record in one run ballgames and they would be close to .500 despite all their other issues.

Unlike some of the other posters here, I do feel with some additions in 2019 and some recovery to close to form from some Twins players Twins will be competitive in 2019. Indians outside of their starting rotation and some key regulars are not better than the Twins. I do not underestimate pitching, but given some improvement our offense should be better than Cleveland in 2019.

Twins have the money to spend (between $60 and $80 million) they should be able to accomplish something.

1. Sign one more starting pitcher(but only if #1 or #2 starter), otherwise they may be no better than some of the youngsters the Twins need to try.

2. Find 2 bullpen pieces to help put together a shutdown pen. This will require some money as the better ones will be expensive ($12 - $18 million a year).

3. Find a 1B and a (2B or SS) to play for the next 2 years (1B may only need to be 1 year).

 

This is not an impossible task list. Let's do it.

 

There are exactly six (6) relievers making more than $12 mil per year. Three of them are with the Yankees, who always overpay.

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/relief-pitcher/

 

 

What relievers out there do you think will command $12 to $18 mil per year?

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I just watched interview with Billy Beane of the A's they were asking him on how he rebuilds and his answer may shock some of you. He doesn't have 5 year plan he said he can't afford it he tries to put a winner together every year and adjust from there. They were talking to him about having 3 last place finishing squads and he was even surprised he had 3 because he thought last years team had done much better finishing strong. The general feel I got from him 5 year plans are to long and to many things can go wrong he is philosophy of trying to win as soon as you can. I look at his club he gone from contender to being as poor as were Twins to being a contender again while the Twins have been floundering on putting a 5 year plan together. I am seeing same things with Yankees, Phillies, Arizona, Colorado, and number of other clubs they have rebuilt themselves quickly to win while were on this long term track to rebuild. The questions that need to be asked is why is it these teams farm systems seem to restock so quickly with high end talent where it takes us years to acquire this talent. We sure not spending at the big league level on player talent so what gives do we not spend money signing players like these other clubs must do. Also another point with the A's is that if they are win now mode they value there 40 man roster more than total minor league system saying they use minor league system like cash they improve their roster with prospects and when things don't go as plan they sell pieces that don't fit there roster for minor leaguers to improve their cash position again to trade for people improve their roster again. I am not sure this would work for us but I like idea they want to win now not in future with prospects. In baseball planning to win in the future is pretty shaky because there are too many variables of what can happen to your players plus you don't where or how other teams may be playing when your planning to be a winner. I believe in 2000's we should have signed a player or two that could have given us edge to be winner instead they went with minimum to just win the division or the wild card. Especially when we finally got to playoffs we hurt and worn down from race to just win a playoff spot. I also think last year we had a better shot than we got if we had invested in that team with extra piece or two but we were in five year rebuild mode and winning wasn't part of the plan. 

I keep hearing about the Cubs and Houston how they rebuilt there clubs that is what were doing and I see very little in common with them and where we are now. The difference with us and the Cubs is they had couple of quality drafts and they were able sign end pitching to put together a winning club. They are also big market club they have been and willing to sign high end talent. Houston went with plan of just being terrible to acquire talent through draft and they were able also to sign under old rules international players to also bolster there talent pool. Since then they made the big trade for Verlander to get them a world series title. I also think the way they built there clubs may not be repeatable because of how baseball is changing. 

All I know now is our 40 man roster is weak not in one area but all area's for the coming year. We have shortages of quality players in infield, Catcher, Starting pitching, and Relief pitching and only place we have what I would call were adequate is at outfield positions but still looking at a lot questions if these players can hit at the major league level. Second is that I doubt we sign any major free agents for the coming year this Front Office has been even more unwilling to sign players to long term deals than previous front office. I could see them trade for 40 man roster player that could be ready to graduate to majors but I again have a feeling they may feel is to costly again so we may not see this. So we will see some more one year signings and another lost year and acquiring of more prospects. Cleveland did similar to this but they had empty stadium and took for ever to get the fans to coming back again. We see how that plays in MN.

Beane's comment is full of that stuff that was piled outside the neighbor's barn and as pungent on the first warm day.  You do not trade for Sean Manaea when he did without it being a long term plan.  Sonny Gray would not have been traded for talent down the road  if there was solely planning for the here and now.  That he does not have a specific plan for five years is believable. That he tries to put the best team he can together is believable. That he trades players away long before they are free agents shows bottom line is more important when the win line is low

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The Twins started their dismantling of the roster with the Escobar trade on July 27th. After the games of July 27th, the Twins were 48-53. Cleveland, 56-46. At that point, Cleveland was on pace to win 89 games. The Twins would have need to make up 6 games in the win column over the final two months.

 

The Twins were certainly not in good shape, but not out of it. And it's a bit convenient to use Cleveland's results now, which are known, to shape an argument about what should have been done then.

 

I am pretty sure 56 is 8 more than 48. Granted, it's convenient to have more information now but projecting Cleveland's performance was part of that equation. That pitching staff with a 1-4 of Rameriz, Lindor, Brantley, and Encarcion projected to perform better than they had to date. I would expect the Twins to have factored this into their decisions. There is simply no way to get around the fact that Cleveland's team projected to do significantly better than the Twins with all of the original roster in place much less make up 8 games. 

 

I butchered the math earlier. They would have needed to go 42-24. 

Edited by Major Leauge Ready
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The philosophy going into 2018 seemed to be 'We were pretty good in 2017 and our young core is improving, so let's add some veteran talent on short-term deals and go win our lame division!' It sounded like a good plan, and it probably was.

 

By July the plan was shattered, and the Twins devolved into a bipolar cruise ship. On the bow there was a reasonably orderly abandon ship drill taking place, with Dozier, Esco, Pressley and Co. going over the side. Meanwhile on the stern, seniors like Belisle and Wilson continued to putter along on the shuffleboard court as if nothing were wrong.

 

And in the middle of it all, the crew of the S.S Twins wandered around assuring everyone that the cruise line was handling it and everything would be fine.

 

To be honest, I've not really the foggiest idea where the TwIns are getting it wrong. But I'm fairly certain of where they're NOT getting it wrong:

 

1. They're not playing in either a market or a stadium that dooms them to bottom-five revenue like the teams mentioned at the top of the article.

 

2. They're not being grossly mismanaged by a chronic incompetent on the field.

 

3. They've had injury issues, but it's not like the frigging team charter went Marshall on them, either.

 

What's that leave? Ownership isn't allowing the needed payroll, the front office may be struggling to acquire talent, their on-field staff throughout the organization is failing to develop it, or it's a combination.

 

In spite of that, Molitor will be jettisoned before Falvine. They'll get another year at minimum to sort things out, and I wish them well. They still seem like sharp guys, and maybe they'll get the cruise ship righted.

 

On the other hand, while the Twins are 'only' 12 below .500 and 'just' a -70 run differential, they're playing in the worst division in baseball.  Against AL teams with winning records, the Twins are sporting a .375 win pct., which would work out to a 100 loss season.

 

In other words, even with Buxton and Sano healthy and back on track, there's a metric **** ton of work to be done.

 

 

 

Edited by ashburyjohn
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We seem to be talking about two different things. You are talking about the way the team is playing but I'm talking about the talent on the roster. What do you think of the talent on the roster today? What do you think of the talent on the roster July 25th?

ok i was kind of seeing your point until you said that Dozier, Escobar, Lynn, Pressly, and Rodney were same as having Austin, Forsythe, Drake, DeJong and Who else?...Wait a minute What????. Yes those five are way WAY better than (name any five) currently on the Twins 40 man. This season was TANKED because somebody somewhere did not believe in them or for some other ulterior motive. The 40 man roster is what it is BECAUSE of those moves and YES before the gutting of the team's heart and soul they had a puncher's chance to catch and pass Cleveland. We all know who made the decisions but that is not part of my point and I dont want anyone to say i am attacking whoever traded our teams leadership. Austin has done nothing in his career to show me he will ever be more than a big slow guy that is a defensive liability anywhere you put him and gets hurt and strikes out way too much. (we already have a guy like that). If he is so good then why did the Yankees dump him on us and trade for the Cardinal's Luke Voit the next day. If you want to debate with me more why was the Yankees first base job won by NEIL WALKER out of spring training when Bird was hurt and Austin was healthy? Thats the only one of our fearsome fivesome that i even need to elaborate on, unless you really Do think Forsythe is as good as Dozier and Drake is as good as Duke and DeJong could carry Lynn's gear. thanks for the take though...it is what it is. Instead of cheering for our team we are discussing this and that shouldnt be the way it is. They should have let em' settle it on the field. Edited by Channing1964
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ok i was kind of seeing your point until you said that Dozier, Escobar, Lynn, Pressly, and Rodney were same as having Austin, Forsythe, Drake, DeJong and Who else?...Wait a minute What????. Yes those five are way WAY better than (name any five) currently on the Twins 40 man. This season was TANKED because somebody somewhere did not believe in them or for some other ulterior motive. The 40 man roster is what it is BECAUSE of those moves

 

In terms of talent, it might be true that those players are better.  In terms of production since the deadline it's really not.  (Quick comparison here only)

 

Austin - .783 OPS, Forsythe - .679 OPS/ Dozier - .631 and Escobar .738.  There is very little difference there.  And what difference there is favors the Twins.

 

May and Drake 3.99 and 3.83 in FIP replaced Pressley and Rodney (1.49 and 4.19)  Clearly Pressley is a good player, but even that from a bullpen is not a hugely different outcome.

 

Lynn has been lights out for the Yankees....but tell me one person that saw that coming.  I doubt even the Yankees expected what they got from him.

 

Of course, there can be an emotional impact from selling at the deadline, I wouldn't disagree with that.  But in terms of the talent being shuffled on the 25/40 man roster as a result of the moves made at the deadline, it's hard to see how the overall talent level and production were radically changed.  Even for 2019, only Pressley and Rodney were even counted officially as part of that group.  The rest of the players dealt were all on expiring contracts.  

 

I just don't see how anyone can make a cogent argument that dealing expiring deals cripples the 2019 40 man (as suggested earlier) or how the overall talent of the team was radically changed.  This wasn't a terribly talented team all year due to a confluence of issues that the FO does share blame for.  So it really feels like unfair criticism to hammer the FO for selling on a talented playoff team and then hammer them a month later for having the organization in shambles for dealing a handful of meaningful players.  (Most of whom are older and/or on expiring deals)

Edited by TheLeviathan
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There are exactly six (6) relievers making more than $12 mil per year. Three of them are with the Yankees, who always overpay.


https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/relief-pitcher/


What relievers out there do you think will command $12 to $18 mil per year?

I do not have the list I saw in front of me, but I believe Kimbal and Andrew Miller are available.  Also Dolittle, Herrera, and some othere.  I do believe Kimball and Andrew Miller will be in that range (assuming Miller can prove he's healthy).  Doolittle, Herrera, Famela and some of the other will be between $9 and $12 million a year.  If you have not looked relief pitching prices are going up.  Clubs are learning the value of great relief pitching (they are cheaper than starters and can affect many more games when you are ahead).  Twins need to get with the program.

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Lynn has been lights out for the Yankees....but tell me one person that saw that coming.  I doubt even the Yankees expected what they got from him.

Just FYI, Lynn was great in his first three starts but is sporting a 7.66 ERA in his last five. His FIP is pretty good in that time, but I think the Yanks would rather have actual results.
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Just FYI, Lynn was great in his first three starts but is sporting a 7.66 ERA in his last five. His FIP is pretty good in that time, but I think the Yanks would rather have actual results.

 

What I think is weird is that anyone thought his suckiness is anything other than a fluke.

 

Fans around here never liked his signing and I don't see why. Baseball-reference says his similar pitchers include:

 

- Corey Kluber

- Jake Arrieta

- Clay Buchholz

 

etc...

 

No hall of famers, but some pitchers who were or are very good. This is based on numbers, not opinions.

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I don't understand how you judge the moves the Twins made this summer and fall have improved this team for next year. We gutted the 40 man roster and just added players that other organizations had determined didn't fit into their plans or they had better aternatives in their system. The trades for Dozier, Escobar, and Pressely we recieved no prospect higher than advanced A ball. This means were still at less than 50% chance of never seeing these kids in the majors. WE have very few high end prospects in either triple A or Double A that could advance to the majors. Our highest prospect in those levels is now struggling wasn't good enough to be called up this fall in Gordon. Second this gutting has been planed for some time because the proof is how they handled Buxton with his injuries they had plan to save a year of team control long before they made any trades of the above players. If you haven't figured it out were to just go through at least 2 more seasons of 90+ losses to acquire more prospects. They are not going to sign any quality free agents next year it will be low cost one year deal people to just fill out lineup. Gibson, Ordorizzi, and Sano are going to be traded next year with only exception being Sano if he continues to struggle for more Prospects. Any Trades will be for closer prospect ready to majors like might be called up next year and will play the following year. All you people out there that think were going to be contenders next year is a dream. Also for all you Molitor haters with type of team he will have to manage they will have plenty of loosing to base letting him go. I also hate to see what type of club house they will have because there will no thinking of team but wondering if i have a job or where are they going to move me for their next prospect. I like to see what ownership and Dave St.Peter think of this when they are trying to sell tickets in next few years. I could see attendance drop from 2 million mark down to 1.5 million mark pretty easily if the Twins put poor team out there from the begining of spring training with little for fan draw. I am waiting for all you that supported this gutting see your reactions are when we are experiencing poor baseball on the field. I will still be fan always looking for the hope but i am afraid were going to experience what Cub fan experienced for many years utter futility on the field.

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We should be able to tell where the Twins are going next year by the end of the year.  If next year is sort them out, then Oderizzi should be send packing and Gibson either extended or traded.  You have 8 candidates for one starting slot and that is unworkable.

Otherwise you should package a few of them for a better midrange pitcher and sign a #1 or #2 starter plus a least a couple very good relievers.  We will know soon.

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This will be a make or break off season for the FO. For better or worse they have chosen a direction, the future is now in their hands. The question really isn't if they can put a contending product on the field next year, the question is can they put an improved product on the field next year? Can they clear the 40 man of some chaff? Can they somehow field a team capable of fundamental baseball. Can they solve the Sano and Buxton dilemma? And can they keep moving legitimate prospects up the chain. Something tells me this is going to be an unsettling year for players currently on the 40 and 25 man rosters. So unsettling that I would not be extremely surprised to see Sano traded.

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What I think is weird is that anyone thought his suckiness is anything other than a fluke.

 

Fans around here never liked his signing and I don't see why. Baseball-reference says his similar pitchers include:

 

- Corey Kluber

- Jake Arrieta

- Clay Buchholz

 

etc...

 

No hall of famers, but some pitchers who were or are very good. This is based on numbers, not opinions.

I was fine with the signing because it was a one year deal. And I thought he'd be the Twins best pitcher (pretty sure I put that in one of those prediction threads before the season).

 

That being said, the Lance Lynn from 2017 to now is nowhere near as good as the Lance Lynn from 2011-2015. It usually takes most guys years to get their mojo back after Tommy John surgery (if they do at all) and he's already near the age decline.

 

Lynn is a 4/5 starter now. Expecting anything more out of him is foolish. Those pitchers listed are better than him the last year plus.

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I don't understand how you judge the moves the Twins made this summer and fall have improved this team for next year. We gutted the 40 man roster and just added players that other organizations had determined didn't fit into their plans or they had better aternatives in their system. The trades for Dozier, Escobar, and Pressely we recieved no prospect higher than advanced A ball. This means were still at less than 50% chance of never seeing these kids in the majors. WE have very few high end prospects in either triple A or Double A that could advance to the majors. Our highest prospect in those levels is now struggling wasn't good enough to be called up this fall in Gordon. Second this gutting has been planed for some time because the proof is how they handled Buxton with his injuries they had plan to save a year of team control long before they made any trades of the above players. If you haven't figured it out were to just go through at least 2 more seasons of 90+ losses to acquire more prospects. They are not going to sign any quality free agents next year it will be low cost one year deal people to just fill out lineup. Gibson, Ordorizzi, and Sano are going to be traded next year with only exception being Sano if he continues to struggle for more Prospects. Any Trades will be for closer prospect ready to majors like might be called up next year and will play the following year. All you people out there that think were going to be contenders next year is a dream. Also for all you Molitor haters with type of team he will have to manage they will have plenty of loosing to base letting him go. I also hate to see what type of club house they will have because there will no thinking of team but wondering if i have a job or where are they going to move me for their next prospect. I like to see what ownership and Dave St.Peter think of this when they are trying to sell tickets in next few years. I could see attendance drop from 2 million mark down to 1.5 million mark pretty easily if the Twins put poor team out there from the begining of spring training with little for fan draw. I am waiting for all you that supported this gutting see your reactions are when we are experiencing poor baseball on the field. I will still be fan always looking for the hope but i am afraid were going to experience what Cub fan experienced for many years utter futility on the field.

Keeping Dozier and Escobar doesn't help next year at all, or any year, probably. Since they are free agents. How does keeping them help?

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Brian Dozier:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-report-20180908-story.html

 

Logan Morrison:

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/08/12/logan-morrison-to-undergo-season-ending-surgery/

 

Byron Buxton:

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2018/07/byron-buxton-talks-injuries-swing-remains-confident-frustrating-start-season/

 

Playing Hurt and Performing well suggests a toughness that you can be proud of. 

 

Playing Hurt and Not Performing suggests multiple people from the player, to the manager, to the front office getting it wrong. 

 

WIth the addition of Dozier to this list. It has been reported that 3 players were playing hurt, which is admirable unless... you are hurting the team trying to be admirable. 

 

It wasn't the people on the DL who killed us... It was the people who apparently were not placed on the DL.

 

The front office is in charge here. They got this very wrong. 

 

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In terms of talent, it might be true that those players are better. In terms of production since the deadline it's really not. (Quick comparison here only)

 

Austin - .783 OPS, Forsythe - .679 OPS/ Dozier - .631 and Escobar .738. There is very little difference there. And what difference there is favors the Twins.

 

May and Drake 3.99 and 3.83 in FIP replaced Pressley and Rodney (1.49 and 4.19) Clearly Pressley is a good player, but even that from a bullpen is not a hugely different outcome.

 

Lynn has been lights out for the Yankees....but tell me one person that saw that coming. I doubt even the Yankees expected what they got from him.

 

Of course, there can be an emotional impact from selling at the deadline, I wouldn't disagree with that. But in terms of the talent being shuffled on the 25/40 man roster as a result of the moves made at the deadline, it's hard to see how the overall talent level and production were radically changed. Even for 2019, only Pressley and Rodney were even counted officially as part of that group. The rest of the players dealt were all on expiring contracts.

 

I just don't see how anyone can make a cogent argument that dealing expiring deals cripples the 2019 40 man (as suggested earlier) or how the overall talent of the team was radically changed. This wasn't a terribly talented team all year due to a confluence of issues that the FO does share blame for. So it really feels like unfair criticism to hammer the FO for selling on a talented playoff team and then hammer them a month later for having the organization in shambles for dealing a handful of meaningful players. (Most of whom are older and/or on expiring deals)

mark my words, letting Lance Lynn go for , ok i will say it NOTHING, will be known as one of the worst trades we ever made. He was tracking to be just what he always has been...a reliable #3 or maybe even #2 starter with a winner's heart. Spend some time and look up what former St.Louis Cardinal's players do when they leave that organization. I know, but you prolly will be amazed. it is not a joke. i spit real sir.
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You are refusing to look at this objectively. The Indians are on pace to win 91 games. The Twins would have had to have gone 52-14 to catch the Indians. Are you really suggesting it is reasonable to think a team with a winning percentage of .462 was going to win at a .788 pace had they kept the players you mentioned?

 

Cleveland’s 4th best SP has equal or perhaps even better stats than our best SP. Brantley's stats are better than our best offensive player. Their two best position players are significantly better than any of the Twin’s position players. Please explain how Cleveland is not good relative to the Twins. I would love to see what I am missing.

its easy now to look and say Cleveland, my Indians are going to win 95 games. OF COURSE THEY ARE! THEY ARE PLAYING AA competition since the july 27 mark. The whole thing is ....what WOULD have happened? Cleveland has 0...thats Zero chance to win one playoff series. NONE. WE GAVE THEM THE DIVISION. At the very least we should care about the boost to the economy Minneapolis would get from one home playoff game. UNBELIEVABLE!
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its easy now to look and say Cleveland, my Indians are going to win 95 games. OF COURSE THEY ARE! THEY ARE PLAYING AA competition since the july 27 mark. The whole thing is ....what WOULD have happened? Cleveland has 0...thats Zero chance to win one playoff series. NONE. WE GAVE THEM THE DIVISION. At the very least we should care about the boost to the economy Minneapolis would get from one home playoff game. UNBELIEVABLE!

Please forgive me if I'm wrong but haven't you said that the Twins should have tried harder to make the playoffs because anything can happen then. But somehow a Cleveland team that was 7 games better than the Twins around the deadline has no chance in the playoffs?

I get that you wanted to see the team play meaningful games in September. We all did. Some people think the FO was right to pivot when things looked bleak. Some people wanted them to keep fighting and hoped things would turn around.

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Cleveland has 0...thats Zero chance to win one playoff series. NONE.

Hyperbolic much? :)

 

Fangraphs gives Cleveland a 42.4% chance of winning the division series, 21.1% of also winning the ALCS, and a 13.1% of also winning the World Series. I'm not sure what odds I would give them, but it would be a lot closer to those than to your zero.

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mark my words, letting Lance Lynn go for , ok i will say it NOTHING, will be known as one of the worst trades we ever made. He was tracking to be just what he always has been...a reliable #3 or maybe even #2 starter with a winner's heart. Spend some time and look up what former St.Louis Cardinal's players do when they leave that organization. I know, but you prolly will be amazed. it is not a joke. i spit real sir.

He's a free agent.... They can sign him again if they want. Why keep him for a lost season? And, I'm guessing that was the best offer...

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