Article: Orioles Provide Hope for the Hopeless

[JB_Iowa]

Teams have won in the past with less than perfect teams. The question is whether you rely on that?

 

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

[JP3700]

I thought this was a great article. I had mentioned in another thread that I would take the Orioles blueprint and use it for 2013 because I felt it was the closest route to possible contention. Obviously there is some luck involved but I think the Orioles have a sound blueprint. They do two things very well. They shorten games with their bullpen and they hit the ball out of the park. The reason they have a negative run differential is because they have an inconsistent rotation which causes them to get blown out, Like we did to them 19-7 earlier this year. They will obviously also try to improve their rotation this offseason.

 

Couple stats I wanted to bring up. The 4 division leaders (with the Orioles and Yankees being tied) are 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th in the AL in home runs. They are 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th in team ERA in the AL. 4 of the 5 worst records in the AL (Twins, Royals, Indians and Mariners) have hit the least home runs in the AL (significant margin).

 

I think our bullpen is pretty close but we need to have more power in the lineup. The fact that 4-5 spots in the lineup for most of the season showed zero to little power hurt the team almost as much as the pitching did.

[mnjon]

DPJ - You're clearly very good at conveying your thoughts and you are very understanding of others opinions. Good job not being negative.

You can't say that luck is a one-time event that can only happen under specific circumstances and then apply that same logic to 140+ games on a team with 25+ players. It's not just luck. Say what you want to convince yourself otherwise but not everyone on the Orioles is having a career year and winning all games by the slimmest of margins.

[DPJ]

DPJ - You're clearly very good at conveying your thoughts and you are very understanding of others opinions. Good job not being negative.

You can't say that luck is a one-time event that can only happen under specific circumstances and then apply that same logic to 140+ games on a team with 25+ players. It's not just luck. Say what you want to convince yourself otherwise but not everyone on the Orioles is having a career year and winning all games by the slimmest of margins.

 

You really don't get this do you? You understand that being outscored by your opponents is bad, being outscored by your opponents over 140 games is very bad. If you are somehow winning or contending for a division with that bad a run differential...that means your team is very very lucky.It's not about career years or whatever garbage you're spewing.

[Riverbrian]

You lose on Monday 12 to 1 and you win Tuesday and Wednesday 3 to 2 both nights. You are Negative 10 in run differential and 2 and 1.

 

 

If anyone is looking at run differential and saying that proves luck. I'd say it proves nothing. To me it says that they got pounded every once in awhile.

 

A win is a win and a loss is a loss. Luck is a factor for teams like the Orioles and luck is a factor for Teams like the Yankees. Both teams also contend with elements of bad luck from time to time.

 

I agree with Nick 100 Percent... The Orioles do indeed give me hope and so do the Pirates. The 2011 D-Backs give me hope. The 2010 Padres give me hope. The 2009 Rockies give me hope. The 2008 Astros Give me Hope. The 2007 Indians give me hope... I Could keep going... But it's safe to say... That no one is going to take that hope from me because I watched every one of those teams defy the odds.

 

We all like to play the game on Paper but it is always played on the field. We have access to the dollar figures and we have access to the metrics and we all like to try and add the pieces together but the game is always played on the field. You can take your WAR and try to make it all make sense but every once in awhile, a guy hitting .196 ropes one into the Gap and clears the bases with two outs in the 9th.

 

That's the beauty of baseball.

 

In the end... The Difference between Ben Revere .304 Average and Trevor Plouffe .234 Average is 50 hits over 100 games.

 

One hit every two games and that's the thesis that makes teams looks good "on paper". An extra hit every two games and that thesis is blown out the window.

 

It's the freeking little things and the timing of when you make that play (hit, catch, throw) that determines if you are a contending baseball team.

 

If you are good enough to make a major league roster... You are good enough to help your team win and contend. This includes Taylor Teagarden... Everyone has a chance and teams like the Orioles should inspire all of us. Writing it off as luck is just bad form.

 

You make your own luck sometimes. The harder you work... The Luckier you Get...

 

Sidenote... On Paper... I would feel luckier if we improved our pitching!!!

[Nick Nelson]

You really don't get this do you?

I think you're the one that doesn't get it. Your diatribes are tiring and completely off-topic.

 

Getting outscored by your opponents is not a great recipe for fielding a winning team. We got it. Thank you for that spectacular piece of baseball wisdom. No one is suggesting that to be the case. Contrary to what you believe, the Orioles have done some good things to improve their club, things that the Twins should take note of moving forward.

 

If the Twins can move to the middle of the pack in pitching while maintaining a productive lineup, they'll have a chance to contend next year. Countless teams have made the playoffs or come close despite lacking upper-echelon offenses & pitching staffs. Getting caught up in the Orioles' run differential is pointless, and derailing the potential for a quality discussion.

[JP3700]

 

You really don't get this do you? You understand that being outscored by your opponents is bad, being outscored by your opponents over 140 games is very bad. If you are somehow winning or contending for a division with that bad a run differential...that means your team is very very lucky.It's not about career years or whatever garbage you're spewing.

 

As I mentioned above, there is a reason for their run differential, but I'll add to it. They had inconsistent starting pitching for much of the year when they had Arrietta, Hunter and Matusz in the rotation. That's why they called up Gonzalez, Britton, and Tillman as the article mentioned. Their blueprint makes perfect sense, they win close games due to their ability to shorten the game or keep it close and hit timely home runs. They win close games and lose blow outs and that makes their run differential look bad.

 

Let me give you an easy example of why run differential can be deceiving. Last night in a 4-0 game we put in Perdomo and Burnett. This caused the game to end 9-1, an additional -4 to our run differential. If Gardy put in Burton and Perkins instead or even Fien and Duensing, wouldn't the game have ended more likely in the 4-1 or 5-1 range?

 

Instead of just looking at numbers and saying it's luck why not actually understand why it's happening.

[Mike Sixel]

There us a pretty good correlation between run differential and win loss record.....putting that aside, the twins should not plan for luck. Their strategy should be about getting 2 good to very good pitchers by trade or free agency. The twins minor league and major league pitchers are not likely to get them to the middle of the pack at this point.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I just joined the thread--skimmed the 30plus comments--looking for 3 names that I never saw. I live in MD (closer to Nats than Os). Os improvement is more than luck. It is built around middle of the diamond nucleus that will be around for years. The three names are Adam Jones (stolen from Seattle--if memory is correct for Bedard) who is the Os Morneau of a couple of years ago, JJ Hardy (who the Twins should have kept) and their Mauer (Wieters) who finally developed. Jones is a better OF than anybody the Twins have, Wieters may or may not stay healthy enough to be a star C for the next 10 years. throw in Markakis who I rate highly mainly cause I was at the game he hit three taters vs the Twins...its a fairly young nucleus who could (and would in the AL Central) contend for the next few years.

[Paul]

I think that comparing the O's and Twins potentialwise is very logical on the surface. But if you look closer you will notice a major impediment to the Twins following the O's tracks. The Orioles had a field staff overhaul a couple yrs ago. I'm a huge Gardenhire fan. My opinion, based on results and reports from the players, is he is every bit as good, if not better than, Showwalter. But there needs to be either a field staff overhaul or a player roster overhaul. For various reasons it's infinitely easier to replace the coaching staff.

 

Here's my logic on why personnel has to change. History shows us that payroll matters. But it also shows us it's not the only, or even the most important, factor. There needs to be a synergy for a BB team to rise to the top. Without that synergy the warts really show. In 2010 the 94 win Twins had that synergy. In 2011 the 99 loss Twins didn't. It seemed to me that the team had a much greater mercenary attitude in 2011 than 2010. It stands to reason that the firing of Hardy coupled with the hiring of Nishioka most likely invoked player comments and questions. I think Gardenhire was a good enough people person to placate the players. But Smith was not, and probably retorted something along the lines of "This is a business, you do your job and I'll do mine." I think the clubhouse was too far gone by the time they showed Smith the door. And I think it's too far gone to be repairable with the status quo.

[Nick Nelson]

I tend to think there's a cause-and-effect dynamic at play. Did the 2011 Twins lose because they lacked synergy, or did they lack synergy because they lost?

[SweetOne69]

While I agree that there is a correlation between run differential and won loss record, the reason that Baltimore is performing much better with a -22 RD is because they are 25-7 in 1 run games. They win the close games.

[Mike Sixel]

winning close game is not a repeatable skill. There are studies on the interwebs that show that. Again, I am not saying there is no hope, I am saying you cannot base your company's strategy on hope.

[Brock Beauchamp]

winning close game is not a repeatable skill. There are studies on the interwebs that show that. Again, I am not saying there is no hope, I am saying you cannot base your company's strategy on hope.

 

I don't think it even needs to be hope. If the Twins can somehow magically pull a league average rotation and keep their offense, they'll be in the "thick" of the AL Central, as meager as that can be. Look at Detroit and Chicago. They're both pretty mediocre overall but one of them is going to the playoffs. The Twins can join that club rather easily with one smart FA pickup, one scrapheap guy, and one smart trade this offseason. With a little bit of luck, that rounds out this rotation enough to be "competitive" in the short term.

[Paul]

I tend to think there's a cause-and-effect dynamic at play. Did the 2011 Twins lose because they lacked synergy, or did they lack synergy because they lost?

 

I agree wholeheartedly there's a snowball effect. And that it does work in both directions. But my logic trail seems sound to me. And the assumptions I make are all quite likely. Do you find fault?

[TheLeviathan]

One thing I haven't seen noted is that while the Orioles "plan" may appear to be luck, they were building around a set of prospects. It's just many of their pitching specs have underwhelmed so far.

 

I still think this team's best bet is to build around it's largest collection of controlled talent and not to chase phantoms. Baltimore was doing exactly that and it has worked out, but for different reasons.

[diehardtwinsfan]

winning close game is not a repeatable skill. There are studies on the interwebs that show that. Again, I am not saying there is no hope, I am saying you cannot base your company's strategy on hope.

 

this is true, but let's not forget that the WhiteSox repeated it for a year and even got a ring out of it...

[snepp]

this is true, but let's not forget that the WhiteSox repeated it for a year and even got a ring out of it...

 

The White Sox team that had a pythag record of 91-71 and had a fantastic rotation?

[frightwig]

The O's success this year has depended a lot on luck (which Nick acknowledged in his post), but Nick is right that the Twins would stand a puncher's chance next year if the pitching improves to a league-average level, which probably means eliminating 125-150 runs allowed. (Easier said than done, right?)

 

So what did the O's do in the past year to fix their team? To recap Nick...

 

They signed an inexpensive Asian SP (Chen costs $3.2M this year) who has been a bit better than league-average, unlike Terry Ryan's bargain flyer for the Twins rotation last spring.

 

They swapped league-average-ish SP's with Colorado (and got a good reliever, Matt Lindstrom, in the deal who was later traded for Joe Saunders, another dependably average SP). Freed from Coors Field, Jason Hammel has had a breakout season. (Btw, although Jeremy Guthrie fell apart in Colorado, he's also been very good through 10 starts with Kansas City this season.)

 

They found Miguel Gonzalez, a 28 year-old minor league free agent released by the Red Sox last winter (because he had a 6.17 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 46.2 IP at AA last season), who has, incredibly, posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 79.2 IP (including 11 starts) for Baltimore.

 

One young pitcher, Chris Tillman, who struggled in 3 prior partial-seasons with the O's, suddenly has been very good in 11 starts this year. The other young pitcher Nick mentioned, Zach Britton, has been lit up a number of times this season, but recently he had a string of 4 very nice starts, too.

 

Finally, the bullpen has been very good. Whereas the Baltimore bullpen had a 4.18 ERA last year, it rates 4th in the AL with a 3.15 ERA this season. A few key relievers (Luis Ayala, Darren O'Day, Steve Johnson, Lindstrom) were not part of the team last year.

 

So, those things. Not to mention acquiring Wilson Betemit and Nate McLouth, who have been solid additions to the lineup, and Chris Davis having a minor breakout year at 26, after the O's got him from Texas for Koji Uehara last summer. And of course the lineup core (Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Hardy, Reynolds, all under 30 years old) are all playing well this season.

 

It's true that none of these moves cost a lot of money, or essential talent from the organization. But, at the same time, you'd have to admit that it is quite a few bargain-hunting moves (about 10, plus Tillman making the leap) that have worked out all at once for the O's. Tommy Hunter hasn't panned out, and a few of their pitching prospects besides Tillman have continued to scuffle, but a really high percentage of these bargain deals have paid off for them this year. You might even say that the O's front office has been as lucky as the team on the field. (I mean, Miguel Gonzalez! Come on!)

 

But a reason for Twins fans to hope? OK, sure. If Terry Ryan can pull off 8-10 inexpensive moves that work out, particularly if a few of them fill holes in the rotation, maybe Twins fans will get to enjoy such luck next year, too.

[DaveW]

Posting in a DPJ thread!

[chuchadoro]

The cynic in me sees this article as pre-emptive rationalization for the Twins continuing to cut payroll and sign players players off the scrap heap. The Orioles are giving the Twins org a perfect excuse to stand pat or make minor changes on the periphery. I can't wait for the offseason.

"The lineup is great blah blah blah...Bruce Chen really solidifies the starting rotation... Diamond and Deduno are aces blah blah...are you guys as excited as me about (minor league FA no one has heard of)? He's the next Deduno...Just a tweak here and there and the Twins are blah blah blah..."

Here's to one more year of the Pohlads pissing on your leg and telling you it's raining!

[scottz]

If anyone is looking at run differential and saying that proves luck. I'd say it proves nothing. To me it says that they got pounded every once in awhile.

...

I agree with Nick 100 Percent... The Orioles do indeed give me hope and so do the Pirates. The 2011 D-Backs give me hope. The 2010 Padres give me hope. The 2009 Rockies give me hope. The 2008 Astros Give me Hope. The 2007 Indians give me hope... I Could keep going... But it's safe to say... That no one is going to take that hope from me because I watched every one of those teams defy the odds.

...

Sidenote... On Paper... I would feel luckier if we improved our pitching!!!

 

I do think run differential is important to look at for determining whether a team's record is over or underperforming. Obviously, it isn't the only thing, but go to ESPN or any other site that lists the run differential along with the standings and scroll back historically and it is plainly clear that *in general*, teams with large positive differentials are better, year in and year out. That's not to say that a team with a near-zero or negative differential can't compete, but it is the exception. DPJ chooses to call it luck and that's as accurate as a terminology as any. Call it magic or lightning in a bottle or chemistry or whatever...but it's the exception, and as mike wants win states, he doesn't want hope to be the plan going forward. That said, Nick clearly didn't mean to suggest hope was the path to take, if not in his original post then at least in his follow up responses.

 

Interesting teams you mentioned there as many have strong similarities: most changed managers shortly before their hope-cited seasons.

Team, New Manager, Year Manager took over

2012 Orioles, Showalter, 2011

2012 Pirates, Hurdle, 2011

2011 DBacks, Gibson, Mid-Year 2010

2010 Padres, Black, 2007

2009 Rockies, Tracy, Mid-Year 2009 after 46 games (18-28)

2008 Astros, Cooper, Mid-Year 2007

2007 Indians, Wedge, 2002

 

So of the 7 teams cited - and I'm presuming those were off the top of your head, 5 of them replaced their manager either in the season of hope or in the year before. Sometimes, a new voice can get players to perform better than the old voice. That's not saying that the managers they replaced weren't good. New 2009 Rockies voice Jim Tracy, for example, replaced old voice Clint Hurdle - who later became the new voice for the Pirates. I'm not suggesting that a change at manager absolutely turns the team around; just saying that when teams turn around after struggles, sometimes it is easier to do with a different leader.

 

Finally, I totally agree. I'd feel much luckier with improved pitching. Diamond is not a #1 guy in 2012, nor Deduno, nor DeVries, nor Hendricks, and none of them figure to be in 2013. Pavano is not a #1 guy. A healthy Baker is not a #1 guy. If league average pitching is what is needed, the team needs a #1 and a #2 to go with the #3 (maybe Diamond), #4s, and #5s (the rest) that we have.

[Riverbrian]

If anyone is looking at run differential and saying that proves luck. I'd say it proves nothing. To me it says that they got pounded every once in awhile.

...

I agree with Nick 100 Percent... The Orioles do indeed give me hope and so do the Pirates. The 2011 D-Backs give me hope. The 2010 Padres give me hope. The 2009 Rockies give me hope. The 2008 Astros Give me Hope. The 2007 Indians give me hope... I Could keep going... But it's safe to say... That no one is going to take that hope from me because I watched every one of those teams defy the odds.

...

Sidenote... On Paper... I would feel luckier if we improved our pitching!!!

 

I do think run differential is important to look at for determining whether a team's record is over or underperforming. Obviously, it isn't the only thing, but go to ESPN or any other site that lists the run differential along with the standings and scroll back historically and it is plainly clear that *in general*, teams with large positive differentials are better, year in and year out. That's not to say that a team with a near-zero or negative differential can't compete, but it is the exception. DPJ chooses to call it luck and that's as accurate as a terminology as any. Call it magic or lightning in a bottle or chemistry or whatever...but it's the exception, and as mike wants win states, he doesn't want hope to be the plan going forward. That said, Nick clearly didn't mean to suggest hope was the path to take, if not in his original post then at least in his follow up responses.

 

Interesting teams you mentioned there as many have strong similarities: most changed managers shortly before their hope-cited seasons.

Team, New Manager, Year Manager took over

2012 Orioles, Showalter, 2011

2012 Pirates, Hurdle, 2011

2011 DBacks, Gibson, Mid-Year 2010

2010 Padres, Black, 2007

2009 Rockies, Tracy, Mid-Year 2009 after 46 games (18-28)

2008 Astros, Cooper, Mid-Year 2007

2007 Indians, Wedge, 2002

 

So of the 7 teams cited - and I'm presuming those were off the top of your head, 5 of them replaced their manager either in the season of hope or in the year before. Sometimes, a new voice can get players to perform better than the old voice. That's not saying that the managers they replaced weren't good. New 2009 Rockies voice Jim Tracy, for example, replaced old voice Clint Hurdle - who later became the new voice for the Pirates. I'm not suggesting that a change at manager absolutely turns the team around; just saying that when teams turn around after struggles, sometimes it is easier to do with a different leader.

 

Finally, I totally agree. I'd feel much luckier with improved pitching. Diamond is not a #1 guy in 2012, nor Deduno, nor DeVries, nor Hendricks, and none of them figure to be in 2013. Pavano is not a #1 guy. A healthy Baker is not a #1 guy. If league average pitching is what is needed, the team needs a #1 and a #2 to go with the #3 (maybe Diamond), #4s, and #5s (the rest) that we have.

 

Good post...I agree with your point about run differential but only because it's stands to reason.

 

If you are winning more than you are losing it stands to reason that you are scoring more runs than you are giving up. It wouldn't be surprising if teams with the better records have better run differential... It should be expected. I expect to see that in side by side comparisons.

 

However... A negative run differential and a winning record doesn't mean a team is lucky. It simply suggests that they have lost big on occasion and won a bunch of close games. If I see a team winning a bunch of close games. I see a team playing baseball. If I was an Oriole and someone was writing me off as lucky with the good vibe they have going. I'd have Jim Thome pick up Brian Roberts by the ankles and strike you with him.

 

They did it again today. 3 to 2 in extra innings over Tampa. Tip your cap to them. Don't diminish it with the comment of luck. Key hits, moving runners over, Big pitches, bullpen picking up the starters, Big catches, exgressive base running, smart plays in the field isnt luck. Its baseball being played the right way. They don't deserve being called lucky. Calling them lucky is bad form.

 

As for changing managers. I like Gardy and think he's a good manager. I'd help build a statue in front of Target field but I do think a change in leadership would be a good thing. Good for Gardy and good for the Twins. Gardy can take over the Blue Jays next year and do great things. (They have lots of catchers in the Jays organization). The Twins could have a fresh voice because I believe inspiration is important even if it primarily comes from the players themselves. At least I believe it's the job of the players to inspire each other.

 

Speaking of inspiration. I believe that is correct word to use. The Orioles are inspired right now. Not lucky... Inspired!!! If you are inspired... You work hard... If you work hard... You create some luck.

 

Your list of managers is interesting. I hadn't really thought about that. One explanation is that teams change managers frequently. There are only a couple of managers who have stayed with the same club for a long long time.

 

For a team to come out of nowhere they had to be nowhere. Not many managers survive nowhere. Gardy could be the exception.

 

Decent pitching is the the great equalizer. Pitching can keep you in games and when you are in a game... The guy hitting .180 can drop a game winner in... Please Terry Ryan... Whatever it takes... Brings us some arms next year and defense to support that pitching. At gunpoint if you have to.