Article: HOU 5, MIN 2: Rough Opener, Strong Stewart Homecoming

[Seth Stohs]

When facing an opposing pitcher such as Justin Verlander, falling behind early is not an ideal strategy. For the second time this week (and ever), the Twins employed the “Opener” concept in Tuesday night’s game. This time, it was Trevor May who started and was replaced in the second inning by the “primary” pitcher, Kohl Stewart, who went to high school at St. Pius X high school, a ten mile commute from Minute Maid Park.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

May: 18 Game Score, 1.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 K, 0 BB, 69.2% strikes (18 of 26 pitches)

Home Runs: Polanco (4)

Multi-Hit Games: Grossman (2-for-3)

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Grossman (.154), Stewart (.101)

WPA of -0.1 or lower: May -0.302

 

 

The Sample Size is just two, so making any grand statements about the Opener concept at this point would be silly. The “Openers” have been non-good, but the young pitchers who have come after them have been pretty solid.

 

 

Sano left the game on a cart. Fortunately, x-rays were negative, which is positive for Sano and Twins fans. Instead of likely being done for the year, he could be back in the lineup in the not-too-distant future, though they will certainly be cautious.

 

This is likely the first time that Sano has felt any sort of pain through his left leg, the titanium rod-filled one. Molitor noted after the game that he felt pain up and down his leg, down even to his ankle. He probably got a bit scared, I know I would, and wisely stayed off of it as a precaution. Looking at the video, his leg and knee just stopped at the bag, so if it’s truly just a bruise, it is very lucky.

 

 

While Tom has stopped doing the daily reliever pitch count chart, I figured that I would at least update you on the Twins who pitched on Tuesday. In the “Opener” role, Trevor May threw 26 pitches. Oliver Drake came in for the seventh inning and needed 19 pitches. Tyler Duffey had a very nice, tidy, nine-pitch eighth inning.

 

By the way, Ryan Pressly was really good for the Astros. He was throwing hard, spinning it well, and putting up numbers. But he struck out the side against the Twins in the eighth inning. He struck out the pinch-hitting Mitch Garver, Joe Mauer and Logan Forsythe. While the radar gun looked the same, Pressly appeared so much more confident on the mound. He looked smoother, more in control. In his time with the Astros, he has 22 strikeouts without issuing a walk.

 

 

Next Three Games

Wed at HOU, 7:10 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Framber Valdez

Thu: Off

Fri vs. KC, 7:10 pm CT: TBD (meaning, Opener to go with “primary” Stephen Gonsalves)

Sat vs KC, 6:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs Somebody

 

 

Last Three Games

TEX 18, MIN 4: Speechless

TEX 7, MIN 4: Is Jose OK?

MIN 10, TEX 7: Tex-plosion!

HOU 4, MIN 1: Astros Take Advantage of Pivotal Polanco Error

 

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[Jacksson]

More interesting was the way that Houston used Pressly. He used the fastball to set up the slider and curve. He threw strikes, throwing 12 pitches and 9 of them strikes. HE NEVER THREW A CHANGE. Too bad the Twins: Manager, Pitching Coach, Bullpen Coach and assorted catchers could NEVER figure out how to properly use him. Check his stats since going over to Houston.

[clutterheart]

?

Pressly was pretty good with the Twins this year. I think Houston is just using him less. Molly rode him hard in June.

[h2oface]

That was one horrible slide by Sano.

 

Just because our guys choked in the first inning doesn't mean the game play of an opener is a bad evolution. Other than the ninth, or perhaps in a tie game in extras, an inning is an inning is an inning. Especially if they enter the game at the beginning of the inning. May just blew it. 

 

Trading Pressly was ill-advised. Prospects. A dime a dozen. Stories littered with hopes and dreams, when you already have what you want.

[Jacksson]

Why limit it to an inning? Go ahead and go through the order once, then go on to the next pitcher,

[Nine of twelve]

I didn't watch any of either opener games, but here's what I like about it in the Twins' current situation. As is true with most teams at this time of year, we are in fall training. Out of fairness to the game, teams need to try to win when facing an opponent that is in the running for the postseason. But the rest of the games should be devoted to player development. When it comes to pitchers, it's a lot like spring training. The decision about who pitches should be made in large part based on whom the manager, coaches, and front office want to evaluate and prepare for the future. That means shorter appearances by some pitchers so that others get a chance to get in to games.

[Bill Brown69]

I agree with both of the above posts. 

 

I can't believe how many of MLB players can't run the bases or slide properly!

 

If you are going to use the opener concept it should be for 2 innings. I get the part about giving the "primary" a clean inning but the opener has to give you 2 for me to think it works.

[mikelink45]

As a person who thinks the Opener stinks, I want to thank the Twins for demonstrating why I do not like it.  The Opener has the same issue that the Starter would - facing the best bats first.  It is not like our Opener options are lights out, nor that BP pitchers are used to the starter routine.  For my enjoyment I think we should start with Belisle and call it our fireworks opener - might draw a crowd.

 

I agree with the notes on Grossman too.  He has truly been the most steady bat for us the past week.  That says a lot about Grossman, but it also says a lot about the rest of the lineup.

[Vanimal46]

There's plenty of reason to give up on the opener this season. The Twins don't have good enough pitchers to make it work.

 

While the Twins are putzing around with this gimmick, good teams like the Astros rely on work horse SPs to get the job done.

[Tomj14]

Hey if baseball wants to continue to drive fans away, by all mean continue using the opener strategy.

I can understand in the Twins and other terrible teams case of wanting to see what they have in young pitchers, but  I am not sure this does that.

 

I agree with Bill above, why limit it to one inning.

[blindeke]

IMO almost nobody goes to a game to see a particular starting pitcher, unless it's someone who has just won a Cy Young or is on a crazy streak or something. Given the way that pitching is evolving to be such an irregular cluster, the opener seems worth a try. Probably takes some getting used to for somoene like May

[lukeduke1980]

I'm annoyed by the Opener concept because it's emulating a team that's trying to be different because of obvious fiscal constraints in Tampa, especially relative to their divisional competition.  It's like we're saying 'ooh we want to be really cheap too because that's how we baseball'.

 

Make it relevant to your talent if you're going to do it - use Odorizzi and Stewart for 3 inning starts, and have a unique strategy to follow him - build up May and Magill as 3 inning middle men or something

[gunnarthor]

Ignoring the opener bull****, Stewart really looked good  yesterday. He had some periods where he was just dealing. There certainly is talent there. I'm not sure the Twins will be able to get all of it out of him but he's had flashes. 

 

For those old enough to remember Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey, Stewart seems like he has better stuff but doesn't yet know how to pitch like they did when they were on. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

when the Twins do the opener idea, can we use the game score from the real starter, not the reliever starting the 1st?

[Vanimal46]

IMO almost nobody goes to a game to see a particular starting pitcher, unless it's someone who has just won a Cy Young or is on a crazy streak or something. Given the way that pitching is evolving to be such an irregular cluster, the opener seems worth a try. Probably takes some getting used to for somoene like May

I disagree. In my experience I watch games specifically for the starting pitcher. Jose Berrios is appointment TV for me. When I lived in Minnesota I'd look to see who was pitching that day and buy cheap tickets if Chris Sale was on the mound.

[Dantes929]

Small ball, Power ball, Closer, Opener, Pitch to miss bats, Pitch to contact.   Take nearly any approach you want and if you do it well you will likely succeed.    In this case, May did not do his part and it failed.   If he throws a good 1st inning maybe we win 2-1.   Its like being green side in golf.   You can putt it, you can chip it, you can pitch it, you can flop it but if you choose any of those options and chunk it or shank it you fail.   Now I know odds are involved in all of it but the execution is still the key. 

[Tomj14]

 

IMO almost nobody goes to a game to see a particular starting pitcher, unless it's someone who has just won a Cy Young or is on a crazy streak or something. Given the way that pitching is evolving to be such an irregular cluster, the opener seems worth a try. Probably takes some getting used to for somoene like May

I disagree, I was at that Tampa game that lasted 5+ hours in heat with my Son (10).

Everybody around us was annoyed with the pitching changes, not knowing who was even pitching.

I won't go to another game that is has that strategy.

[Squirrel]

I’m fine with letting this experiment run its course to the end of this season, but I just think it’s not ... right ... to all of a sudden make your relievers starters. While I know that all relievers were basically failed starters, they are relievers now. They are accustomed, both physically and mentally, to relieve, not start. Yes, let’s just drop the ‘opener’ name; you are asking these relief pitchers to start. It doesn’t matter if it’s only an inning or two. And doesn’t the ‘need’ for this strategy send a message to your actual starters, that they aren’t good enough to get through Innings like they should? Or, if you need an ‘opener’, shouldn’t that be an indication to you that maybe you need better starting pitching? Or is this baseball evolving to have entire games pitched by relievers? Or maybe this is the strategy trying to compete when you don’t have a Kershaw or a Verlander? Or maybe I just don’t fully grasp the concept? (Which, to be honest, is probably the most likely.) So many questions which is why I am uncomfortably okay with riding out this experiment.

[pbrezeasap]

 

I disagree. In my experience I watch games specifically for the starting pitcher. Jose Berrios is appointment TV for me. When I lived in Minnesota I'd look to see who was pitching that day and buy cheap tickets if Chris Sale was on the mound.

 

Definitely, I'm headed to Minnesota on Saturday for the Vikings game and the first couple Twins-Yankees games and was planning on going to the Gophers football game on Saturday night, but now that Berrios is pitching I'll be going to the Twins game instead.

[wsnydes]

 

I disagree. In my experience I watch games specifically for the starting pitcher. Jose Berrios is appointment TV for me. When I lived in Minnesota I'd look to see who was pitching that day and buy cheap tickets if Chris Sale was on the mound.

Concur. I'm certainly more interested if there's a good pitching matchup. Even better if I have tickets for said matchup or even if a guy is on the bump for a team we don't see often from an NL team. I rarely go to games to see individual players, but a good starting pitcher is a bit different in my mind.

[Squirrel]

Ignoring the opener bull****, Stewart really looked good  yesterday. He had some periods where he was just dealing. There certainly is talent there. I'm not sure the Twins will be able to get all of it out of him but he's had flashes. 

 

For those old enough to remember Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey, Stewart seems like he has better stuff but doesn't yet know how to pitch like they did when they were on.

 

Yes. Even though I can’t say for sure where he’ll end up in the org, I’ve liked the progress I’ve seen so far. It’s very good to see, and against a true, MLB lineup.

[chaderic20]

Even if you are going to a game to see a certain pitcher, why does it matter if that pitcher pitches innings 2-7 instead of 1-6?  You still are seeing them the same amount.  The opener strategy shouldn't have any effect on whether you watch a game based on the pitcher.

 

Also, while ideally your opener would do well, I don't think that's the focus of this experiment.  The result I'm sure they are most interested in is the effect it has on the primary pitcher, especially in their last one or two innings.  Does it improve their numbers in those innings?  If so, then the strategy might have some merit, and you just need to find the right guys to be the openers.

 

As the article said, two games with bad results from the openers (which isn't the focus of the experiment) isn't nearly enough to scrap the idea.

[108Stitches]

The opener sucks. Period. It ruins the game. It ruins stats. It ruins the star pitcher/fan relationship. People like to see their stars play, not a platoon. Tampa is getting lucky. It’s not the opener doing it.

[jmlease1]

I don't mind them playing around with the "opener" concept. It's an opportunity in a lost season to try out some new concepts, try some people in some different roles and see how they react. It may not be a keeper, but I actually like the idea of pushing relievers  & starters to do things outside of the regimented and hyper-defined roles they have been formed into over the last 30 years.

 

Glad to see Kohl Stewart have a good outing. Not sure what his future is yet, but if he can throw strikes and finish off ABs with some efficiency he could be a good innings-eater with the weak contact he induces.

[108Stitches]

This opener crap makes it where I can’t even check Stewart’s game score. Instead I have to see May’s stinkshow 18 game score. I’m telling you, fans come out to see their favorite players. And develop relationships with their favorite players. They do not want to see Joe blow come out and stink at the place up for two innings, followed by the guy they wanted to see for 4 innings, then another guy for 1 inning then lefty specialist for one inning then maybe a closer if the first guy didn’t already blow it in the first inning. Meanwhile the other side has a Chris Sale or Kluber in for 8 innings and their fans are happy. Get better pitching. And there’s no need for this stupid experiment invented by academic nerds who likely never even played the damn game.

[clutterheart]

The opener sucks. Period. It ruins the game. It ruins stats. It ruins the star pitcher/fan relationship. People like to see their stars play, not a platoon. Tampa is getting lucky. It’s not the opener doing it.

People said similar things when Oakland was getting all the good OB% guys.

Time will tell. Baseball is a long season. Its hard to be lucky over the course of the season. And its really hard to be lucky 2 years in a row.

In a few years openers might have their own opening music and be just as overhyped as closers.

[SwainZag]

 

The opener sucks. Period. It ruins the game. It ruins stats. It ruins the star pitcher/fan relationship. People like to see their stars play, not a platoon. Tampa is getting lucky. It’s not the opener doing it.

 

It ruins the game? It ruins stats?  So everyone that went to the game to see Kohl Strewart pitch today was ruined because he threw innings 2-6 instead of starting with inning 1?  What's the difference if May threw the 1st instead of say the 7th?  I think it's an interesting concept and have no qualms with them trying it out here late in this season.

[108Stitches]

People said similar things when Oakland was getting all the good OB% guys.

Time will tell. Baseball is a long season. Its hard to be lucky over the course of the season. And its really hard to be lucky 2 years in a row.

In a few years openers might have their own opening music and be just as overhyped as closers.

not a chance. And you can’t compare Oakland’s OBP moneyball to this. THAT didn’t fundamentally change everything about the history of a particular position. Eggheads need to leave baseball alone. Fans don’t like it. Pitchers don’t like it. Tampa has LESS attendance this year than the last 13 years! Fans want their Verlanders and Sherzers and in Tampa’s case, Archer. They don’t like platoons. No matter if they’re winning. In my opinion, the opener strategy is simply a move by the front office bean counters to attempt to minimize the necessity for a $20 million a year star if they can find a way to get by with a few 2-3 million dollar guys. It won’t work.

[108Stitches]

It ruins the game? It ruins stats?  So everyone that went to the game to see Kohl Strewart pitch today was ruined because he threw innings 2-6 instead of starting with inning 1?  What's the difference if May threw the 1st instead of say the 7th?  I think it's an interesting concept and have no qualms with them trying it out here late in this season.

Well if Kohl threw what he did 1-5 instead of 2-6 he wouldn’t have a 4 run deficit.

[jkcarew]

Stewart's stuff looks major-league quality.  Or maybe, it's just me.

 

There will be some pretty decent data by the end of the year, when looking at opener results across the league.

 

I think it's still a fact that the best pitchers are your starters....at least 1-3 in the rotation are better pitchers than all but maybe your 8th and 9th inning guys who posses maybe one ++ pitch.  So, more often than not, you're opener is going to be your 6th, 7th, 8th best pitcher pitching against the top of the other teams order.  To make it worse, the other team knows who the opener is going to be.

 

Meanwhile, it does no good to reduce the number of runs surrendered in the second and third innings (or sixth), if you give up even more in the first.

 

Admittedly, I'm hoping it fails.  Only because it will be another reason to carry additional pitchers on the 25-man.  No mater how you figure it, it's one additional pitcher burned before the game gets into the middle stages.  Managers will still want the protection on the back-side for specific match-ups and extra-innings.  Guaranteed.