Article: Across the Meadow: The Buxton Saga

[USAFChief]

 

But the batter is only going to have one outcome in a plate appearance. Walk, strike out or contact.

or HBP.

[ashbury]

But the batter is only going to have one outcome in a plate appearance. Walk, strike out or contact.

Yes, I can see results, same as you. But the worth of a player comes from the succession of (meaningful) decisions and mechanical actions taken. Those on offense outnumber those on defense.

 

Look, a simple back of the envelope calculation tells you that defense can't outweigh offense from a position player. Offense and defense are basically two sides of the same coin - on offense, you are roughly 1/9 of the team contribution, while on defense you are 1/9 of balls put in play. Up-the-middle positions get more than the share of other defenders, but the pitcher's impact on the game soaks up way too much of the defensive side of this coin.

[Blake]

Late to the thread, away from a lot of online because of work, but just going to toss this out there;

 

The FO realized this was a lost season going into the trade deadline. So, the fringe players are getting a look ahead of the players who are clearly better, because, decisions need to be made. Never know when someone might show the experts how wrong they are.

 

The Twins need a fourth outfielder. Who is it? Give those people extended looks, increase the sample size while expecting that Buxton will play next year. Also maybe gives the team a look at alternatives if Buxton flames out again.

 

Just spitballing here, I admit. 

[ewen21]

 

But the batter is only going to have one outcome in a plate appearance. Walk, strike out or contact.

Buxton might see a week or two worth or plays without getting the opportunity to set himself apart with his defensive skills.  I would argue he can go a lot longer before he makes a play only he and a few other playrs could make, so those are few and far between.

 

He gets up four times a game and each time he steps into the box he has a chance to make an impact.

 

Not sure how this is such a foreign concept to those who insist his glove cancels out his bat.  It doesn't.  Not by a longshot

[yarnivek1972]

Buxton might see a week or two worth or plays without getting the opportunity to set himself apart with his defensive skills. I would argue he can go a lot longer before he makes a play only he and a few other playrs could make, so those are few and far between.

 

He gets up four times a game and each time he steps into the box he has a chance to make an impact.

 

Not sure how this is such a foreign concept to those who insist his glove cancels out his bat. It doesn't. Not by a longshot

 

If Buxton were having anything close to a typical season, I’m not sure “setting apart” from others would be a way to indicate offense is more important. The difference between a .250 hitter and a .280 hitter is 15 hits in 500 at bats, less than one a week.

[ewen21]

 

If Buxton were having anything close to a typical season, I’m not sure “setting apart” from others would be a way to indicate offense is more important. The difference between a .250 hitter and a .280 hitter is 15 hits in 500 at bats, less than one a week.

ANd if 15 of those hits are home runs you really have something.

 

Not sure what you are trying to prove here

[Squirrel]

ANd if 15 of those hits are home runs you really have something.

 

Not sure what you are trying to prove here

I don’t think that anyone is arguing that his defense cancels out his not hitting, as he has been this year. I think what people are saying that his elite defensive skills can’t be negated as you and many others seem to be saying by only focusing on his hitting. He doesn’t need to be above or well above average as a hitter to provide good value to the team. But he does need to be at least average, which he isn’t right now.

[Jham]

They activated him from his rehab assignment 6 days early and optioned him to Rochester. It would have been 7 days of service time remaining before hitting 3 years instead of 13 today.

 

They chose not to bring him up in September and Levine admitted service time was a factor in the decision.

 

They called up every living, breathing human position player that played for the Twins this season except Buxton.

 

I stand by my opinion. If you think Levine and Falvey just looked at his service time numbers on August 31, you're fooling yourself. They've thought about this all season. And their decisions reflect that.

The truth is usually somewhere inn the middle, but posters and media keep pushing this narrative without looking at the actual evidence. Buxton was not sent to the DL with a new injury. Hee could habe been optioned instead of DL'd if the main consideration were service time over playing Buck. The rehab scenario you complained of could have easily occurred earlier when he went down with a migraines the first time. If you think the team was planning on Buxton NOT bring an integral part of the team this year, you are a different sort of crazy. You can make your point for Buxton without inventing conspiracy theories. Was service time eventually the main factor? obviously. Was manipulating service time plan A B or C this year, or for 3 years like you said? Sorry, no way.

 

Buck has had a hugely frustrating year. The service time issue want the Sunday, merely the cherry on top. Winning cures everything. If the team is good next season and Buxton is playing well, the relationship with the FO will heal itself.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The truth is usually somewhere inn the middle, but posters and media keep pushing this narrative without looking at the actual evidence. Buxton was not sent to the DL with a new injury. Hee could habe been optioned instead of DL'd if the main consideration were service time over playing Buck. The rehab scenario you complained of could have easily occurred earlier when he went down with a migraines the first time. If you think the team was planning on Buxton NOT bring an integral part of the team this year, you are a different sort of crazy. You can make your point for Buxton without inventing conspiracy theories. Was service time eventually the main factor? obviously. Was manipulating service time plan A B or C this year, or for 3 years like you said? Sorry, no way.

Buck has had a hugely frustrating year. The service time issue want the Sunday, merely the cherry on top. Winning cures everything. If the team is good next season and Buxton is playing well, the relationship with the FO will heal itself.

The post you are replying to seems more reasonable and accurate than your reply to it, unless I am reading your reply incorrectly.

 

Of course the front office planned on Buxton being an integral part of the team this year. That doesn't mean they couldn't have started manipulating his service time about halfway through.

[Jham]

The post you are replying to seems more reasonable and accurate than your reply to it, unless I am reading your reply incorrectly.

 

Of course the front office planned on Buxton being an integral part of the team this year. That doesn't mean they couldn't have started manipulating his service time about halfway through.

Which part was inaccurate? Which part not reasonable?

 

Despite all that, you literally agreed with me. That plan A was probably Buxton being good. Somewhere around halfway through the season, the plan changed. That this is a year or even a 3 year plan as van suggested ignores a lot of evidence to the contrary. There were tons of opportunities to option Buck prior to when he was optioned. In fact, optioning him early could have avoided this awkward September. If you remember, he was recalled from the DL and played, not optioned. Then DL'd a 2ND time instead of optioning. Then rehabbed instead of optioning. Then finally optioned. Keep in mind Buck accrues service while on the DL and rehabbing. And can't be optioned off the DL. If he wasn't ready to come off when his 10 days were up, he could have continued on the DL and accrued more time. He could have manipulated his own service time by milking the migraines or toe and didn't. But not faking an injury isn't really praise worthy... He probably expected the same fair play in return. For that, I'd be mad too, but we'd given him a lot of extra service time already over the last few years including a lot of time on the DL.

[ewen21]

If Buxton is not answering Torii's messages he has issues. This is a kid who has been praised for his great attitude, but this stuff is horribly immature. Torii has been a mentor, a friend and his biggest advocate. For Buxtom to not respond to his messages? That is indefensible. He could be mad at the GMs but Torii did nothing to him.

 

He was lauded as a high character guy. I'm wondering what it is about him that made him that. Maybe he was respectful of authority when he first came into the organization. So what? That's what you're supposed to do. One thing that has become apparent is he doesn't seem to handle adversity very well. Not sure how an athlete can be "high character" and throw a tantrum like this. Never mind that presses every single year out of the gate and seems to have a mental block about that. For him to ignore Torii at this time is out of hand

[Jham]

If Buxton is not answering Torii's messages he has issues. This is a kid who has been praised for his great attitude, but this stuff is horribly immature. Torii has been a mentor, a friend and his biggest advocate. For Buxtom to not respond to his messages? That is indefensible. He could be mad at the GMs but Torii did nothing to him.

 

He was lauded as a high character guy. I'm wondering what it is about him that made him that. Maybe he was respectful of authority when he first came into the organization. So what? That's what you're supposed to do. One thing that has become apparent is he doesn't seem to handle adversity very well. Not sure how an athlete can be "high character" and throw a tantrum like this. Never mind that presses every single year out of the gate and seems to have a mental block about that. For him to ignore Torii at this time is out of hand

You know, this has been a tough year. I hope he takes some time to relax and clear his head. He'll get back with everyone when it's time. Speaking out of anger and frustration probably makes things worse. Winning cures all. If Buck plays well and the team wins next season, he'll be the golden child again.

[Squirrel]

If Buxton is not answering Torii's messages he has issues. This is a kid who has been praised for his great attitude, but this stuff is horribly immature. Torii has been a mentor, a friend and his biggest advocate. For Buxtom to not respond to his messages? That is indefensible. He could be mad at the GMs but Torii did nothing to him.

 

He was lauded as a high character guy. I'm wondering what it is about him that made him that. Maybe he was respectful of authority when he first came into the organization. So what? That's what you're supposed to do. One thing that has become apparent is he doesn't seem to handle adversity very well. Not sure how an athlete can be "high character" and throw a tantrum like this. Never mind that presses every single year out of the gate and seems to have a mental block about that. For him to ignore Torii at this time is out of hand

He may have been advised by his manager not to talk to anyone until they decide if they will file a grievance. It’s been a tough and disappointing year for all of us but likely more so for him. I don’t blame him for taking some time off and away to be with his family. I also think it better for him to take time and not give out immediate responses in anger or disappointment as that really would be immature.

 

Bottom line, we don’t know if this is a character issue or not so maybe it’s best not to jump to conclusions.

[Riverbrian]

 

If Buxton is not answering Torii's messages he has issues. This is a kid who has been praised for his great attitude, but this stuff is horribly immature. Torii has been a mentor, a friend and his biggest advocate. For Buxtom to not respond to his messages? That is indefensible. He could be mad at the GMs but Torii did nothing to him.

He was lauded as a high character guy. I'm wondering what it is about him that made him that. Maybe he was respectful of authority when he first came into the organization. So what? That's what you're supposed to do. One thing that has become apparent is he doesn't seem to handle adversity very well. Not sure how an athlete can be "high character" and throw a tantrum like this. Never mind that presses every single year out of the gate and seems to have a mental block about that. For him to ignore Torii at this time is out of hand

 

Give him time. 

 

My wife is high character and she didn't talk to me for a week when I accidentally mowed over the tulips. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

...Up-the-middle positions get more than the share of other defenders, but the pitcher's impact on the game soaks up way too much of the defensive side of this coin.

Buxton might see a week or two worth or plays without getting the opportunity to set himself apart with his defensive skills...

Since defense was raised here, I will point out a play from just last night.

 

Twins trailing 1-0, two outs, top of seventh, runner on third. Merrifield hits a very shallow fly ball to center-right, just the sort of ball we see Buxton get to frequently, but this one last night lands safely as an RBI single, and then two more runs score later in the inning.

 

Notwithstanding Fangraphs's DRS stat, that single play right there Buxton would have saved three runs making that catch and ending the inning.

 

I will concede that offense is more important than defense, but will go no further than that. I don't know by how much, if by a lot, or if much at all. It may or may not be telling that Levine did not raise the issue of Buxton's defense in explaining the decision to send him home. To deeply discount defense the way some posters want to, especially Buxton's, is counter-productive to the debate, in my opinion. That's all. I apologize if I am mischaracterizing the quoted posters' positions. I just thought that play last night was worth mentioning.

Edited September 9, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[USAFChief]

 

Since defense was raised here, I will point out a play from just last night.

Twins trailing 1-0, two outs, top of seventh, runner on third. Merrifield hits a very shallow fly ball to center-right, just the sort of ball we see Buxton get to frequently, but this one last night lands safely as an RBI single, and then two more runs score later in the inning.

Notwithstanding Fangraphs's DRS stat, that single play right there Buxton would have saved three runs making that catch and ending the inning.

I will concede that offense is more important than defense, but will go no further than that. I don't know by how much, if by a lot, or if much at all. It may or may not be telling that Levine did not raise the issue of Buxton's defense in explaining the decision to send him home. To deeply discount defense the way some posters want to, especially Buxton's, is counter-productive to the debate, in my opinion. That's all. I apologize if I am mischaracterizing the quoted posters' positions. I just thought that play last night was worth mentioning.

And there were multiple PAs by Twins hitters that could have changed the game too.

 

And even that is granting that Buxton makes that catch, which is easy to speculate about, but pretty difficult to guarantee. 

 

Balls fell with Buxton playing CF too.

 

I think everyone agrees defense is important. And Buxton is a very good center fielder.

 

But you cannot hit at his level and be an asset. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Most of what you say is true, in a general sense.

 

However, I am trying to demonstrate with a specific example how Buxton's defense can impact a game. If Buxton is out there, and makes that running catch, the game stays 1-0 and everybody forgets Buxton is even in the game, at least until he comes to bat again and gives people a reason to bitch if he doesn't get a hit. But at least the game is still 1-0. Without Buxton out there, the game becomes 2-0, then 3-0, then 4-0, and out of reach.

[Riverbrian]

 

Most of what you say is true, in a general sense.

However, I am trying to demonstrate with a specific example how Buxton's defense can impact a game. If Buxton is out there, and makes that running catch, the game stays 1-0 and everybody forgets Buxton is even in the game, at least until he comes to bat again and gives people a reason to bitch if he doesn't get a hit. But at least the game is still 1-0. Without Buxton out there, the game becomes 2-0, then 3-0, then 4-0, and out of reach.

 

I agree with you. I think I understand what you are saying. 

 

I believe crooked numbers are often the difference between winning and losing. I also believe that extra outs or stolen hits are major factors in producing or preventing a crooked number. 

 

When Byron Buxton makes a catch that no one else can make it is hard to quantify exactly what he prevented by taking away a triple with nobody out and turning it into one out with nobody on. I personally believe that each time is potentially big. 

 

It's all a matter of sequencing of course but I do agree with you. I've seen it many times while coaching 15 year olds and while watching the Twins nearly every night for going on a hundred years now.

 

From Bartman to Ervin Santana not getting that 3rd strike call against Didi Gregerious before he homered in the 1st inning of our playoff game last year. Each moment that is gained or lost to create an out can be (often is) full of consequence. 

 

However... Peter Bourjos is having a hard time finding a job because he just couldn't hit enough and Buxton has got to hit to avoid being Bourjos because the routine defensive play that nearly all can make is the norm in the major leagues. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

I'll also add that I'm sure the pitchers loved having Buxton in CF saving their butt on occasion. 

 

I've heard that the pitchers preferred to pitch to Bobby Wilson. 

 

Offense was what carried us last year. Buxton and Wilson helped kill our offense this year (not just those two) to a 20th ranking in team OPS and those defensive preferences led our pitching staff to 23rd in Team ERA. I'm not sure I understand what was accomplished in the end other than we ended up selling at the trade deadline. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I agree with you. I think I understand what you are saying. 

 

I believe crooked numbers are often the difference between winning and losing. I also believe that extra outs or stolen hits are major factors in producing or preventing a crooked number. 

 

When Byron Buxton makes a catch that no one else can make it is hard to quantify exactly what he prevented by taking away a triple with nobody out and turning it into one out with nobody on. I personally believe that each time is potentially big. 

 

It's all a matter of sequencing of course but I do agree with you. I've seen it many times while coaching 15 year olds and while watching the Twins nearly every night for going on a hundred years now.

 

From Bartman to Ervin Santana not getting that 3rd strike call against Didi Gregerious before he homered in the 1st inning of our playoff game last year. Each moment that is gained or lost to create an out can be (often is) full of consequence. 

 

However... Peter Bourjos is having a hard time finding a job because he just couldn't hit enough and Buxton has got to hit to avoid being Bourjos because the routine defensive play that nearly all can make is the norm in the major leagues.

 

I appreciate your effort to change the subject or remove this discussion back to the abstract, but I want to take it back to the specific, real-life example I provided. I think Buxton in center saves three runs there.

 

Defense impacts games in subtle ways, that can't always be measured--even by Fangraphs. Good defense is taken for granted, and great defense is under appreciated.

 

Also, Bourjos is 31

[Riverbrian]

 

I appreciate your effort to change the subject or remove this discussion back to the abstract, but I want to take it back to the specific, real-life example I provided. I think Buxton in center saves three runs there.

Defense impacts games in subtle ways, that can't always be measured--even by Fangraphs. Good defense is taken for granted, and great defense is under appreciated.

Also, Bourjos is 31

 

I don't know if Buxton would have caught that specific ball. The ball wasn't in the air that long. He's fast no doubt but that looper looked like it required a whole nother level of fast. 

 

If Buxton would have caught that ball... it would have saved us three runs.  

 

Which would have prevented a crooked number, Which was my way of agreeing with you. 

 

Peter Bourjos was 24 before he turned 31. 

[TheLeviathan]

I never remember this many impassioned pleas for Pedro Florimon.  He put up an 11 WAR defensive effort for us at one point.

 

But most of us folks saw his awful hitting and said "nope".  If Buxton can't hit, we'll have to say "nope" to him too.

[Borealis]

This is horrible optics for the FO, no other way to put it. If I’m a free agent, I want no part of coming here. More importantly, if I’m a prospect, I’m walking on eggshells.

I respect the Twins Daily’s writers quite a bit, but all but one or two of you actually supported your grading with reasoning. Even the incompletes seemed to be copping out a bit.

Is anyone else concerned that Falvey is a flat out phony that most likely doesn’t know a damn thing about baseball? Scary times for this Twins fan.

I don't think anyone does (or should) think that final paragraph. Just because we disagree with a decision he and Thad Levine make doesn't mean they aren't doing what they feel is in the best long-term interests of the organization. 

 

While I think this situation is bad, it doesn't mean they don't know what they're doing or aren't leading the organization in the right direction.

 

He says he wants to build a long term, sustainable organization that will have a chance to compete every year. How can that possibly be done without fostering a culture built on honest and open relationships? The Dozier saga, the Sano saga, the Escobar trade, and now with the handling of Buxton all are communication breakdowns and/or relationship casualties.

 

Now if someone were to argue that lack of communication isn’t phony, I’d give them that. I would disagree, but I would concede to another’s viewpoint. But to me, operating in secret (see T-Wolves lol) is disengenuous and phony.

 

Seth, I get that you were trying to rein me in a bit - I actually appreciate it. When I wrote this, I was ticked and frustrated. The year of service time thingy was sort of the straw that broke the camels back for me and this frustrating season.

 

At the end of the day I hope I’m wrong about this FO. I’d be happy to eat crow and see these guys prove me wrong.

[Borealis]

It's not like many other teams haven't considered service time when making decisions, and players still sign with those teams.  I think everyone, including Buxton, should look at the amount of his controlled service time that got burned while he played horribly.

I think everyone agrees that some of this falls on Buxton. The flip side is that if management shuts him down when his foot was fractured like they should have, it’s quite reasonable to speculate we all wouldn’t even be having this whole Sept service time argument whatsoever. By best guess is that Buxton is most frustrated by how he was used while we were still in the hunt. He tried to be a gamer and play with the fractured foot for the good of the team and this is how he is rewarded.

 

Somewhat relatedly, it’s hard enough to hit with two feet (or two wrists). Now I get there’s a slew of data where he was healthy and didn’t perform, but how they managed his injuries is the crux of my displeasure and likely his.

[yarnivek1972]

I think everyone agrees that some of this falls on Buxton. The flip side is that if management shuts him down when his foot was fractured like they should have, it’s quite reasonable to speculate we all wouldn’t even be having this whole Sept service time argument whatsoever. By best guess is that Buxton is most frustrated by how he was used while we were still in the hunt. He tried to be a gamer and play with the fractured foot for the good of the team and this is how he is rewarded.

 

Somewhat relatedly, it’s hard enough to hit with two feet (or two wrists). Now I get there’s a slew of data where he was healthy and didn’t perform, but how they managed his injuries is the crux of my displeasure and likely his.

There wouldn’t be any argument. He would have collected the entire year of MLB service time ftom the DL. Is that better?

 

As for comments I have seen elsewhere, the Twins only “cheated” Buxton out of millions if he ever hits MLB pitching. Outside of August and September of 2017, he never has. 200 at bats out of over 1000 in his career.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There wouldn’t be any argument. He would have collected the entire year of MLB service time ftom the DL. Is that better?

As for comments I have seen elsewhere, the Twins only “cheated” Buxton out of millions if he ever hits MLB pitching. Outside of August and September of 2017, he never has. 200 at bats out of over 1000 in his career.

I normally side with the players in this type of situation, but I really cannot with Buxton... and this is why. If anything Buxton should have spent more time in the minors in 2016, 2017, and 2018. He didn't, and for the wrong reasons. He's now super 2 eligible because of it. It's not like Byron didn't get plenty of service time that he didn't deserve in the process. 

[ewen21]

 

I normally side with the players in this type of situation, but I really cannot with Buxton... and this is why. If anything Buxton should have spent more time in the minors in 2016, 2017, and 2018. He didn't, and for the wrong reasons. He's now super 2 eligible because of it. It's not like Byron didn't get plenty of service time that he didn't deserve in the process. 

Buxton is supposed to be a high character guy.  Instead of getting mad at the Twins he really needs to look in the mirror.  The Twins have been ultra supportive and very very patient with him.  If he cannot stay healhty then at some point he needs to address that.  It isn't like the Twins made him get injured.  It isn't all their fault he can't hit either..

 

The idea that the Twins somehow screwed Buxton really is mystifying to me.  Sure, they haven't done well developing players, but when is it ever going to be on Buxton?  When is he going to put on the big boy pants and be a major leaguer?

 

I am very disappointed in him and with how he conducted himself at the end of this sesaon.  If he thinks he's an elite player then he is delusional.  

[Borealis]

I think everyone agrees that some of this falls on Buxton. The flip side is that if management shuts him down when his foot was fractured like they should have, it’s quite reasonable to speculate we all wouldn’t even be having this whole Sept service time argument whatsoever. By best guess is that Buxton is most frustrated by how he was used while we were still in the hunt. He tried to be a gamer and play with the fractured foot for the good of the team and this is how he is rewarded.

Somewhat relatedly, it’s hard enough to hit with two feet (or two wrists). Now I get there’s a slew of data where he was healthy and didn’t perform, but how they managed his injuries is the crux of my displeasure and likely his.

There wouldn’t be any argument. He would have collected the entire year of MLB service time ftom the DL. Is that better?

As for comments I have seen elsewhere, the Twins only “cheated” Buxton out of millions if he ever hits MLB pitching. Outside of August and September of 2017, he never has. 200 at bats out of over 1000 in his career.

I suppose I didn’t explain clearly. If the guy is shut down and put on the DL until his foot was healthy, everything plays out differently. He would have had a boatload of more time to work his way back into the lineup (whether starting on rehab assignment, triple A etc).

 

btw..my argument has never really been about the money lost (that’s secondary). This is about relationships, team building, culture for me.

 

At the end of the day the FO has taken a gamble. Levine has even come out and said from here on out they need to repair this fractured relationship (or something to that effect). There are posts out here that say the FO is looking at the big picture. And I say the big big picture could end up being that this mess hurts their ability to sign him to a long term contract down the road. Honestly, if i was him I’d remember this and would be inclined to look at playing for an organization that believed in me and had my back.

 

Funny how all of our opinions on this subject could be mute/in vein if Buxton doesn’t start living up to at least half his potential. He could be a complete bust, but I still have some hope for him. At least a little more hope than I do for Sano at this point.

[Doctor Wu]

Like everyone else I'm disappointed the Buxton has been injured so often and hasn't put up better offensive numbers. But look at the player selected before him in the draft. Carlos Correa of the Astros. After a sizzling start to his career he's battled injuries this year and is only hitting .238. Not the end of the world, but it still shows you that even talented players will have their ups and downs. At this point, i'm just hoping for a healthy Buxton in 2019, and one that can finally put it all together. We need him.

[ewen21]

 

Like everyone else I'm disappointed the Buxton has been injured so often and hasn't put up better offensive numbers. But look at the player selected before him in the draft. Carlos Correa of the Astros. After a sizzling start to his career he's battled injuries this year and is only hitting .238. Not the end of the world, but it still shows you that even talented players will have their ups and downs. At this point, i'm just hoping for a healthy Buxton in 2019, and one that can finally put it all together. We need him.

Correa's liftime batting average is 47 points higher than Buxton's and his OPS is 160 points higher.

 

Not sure when or how Buxton finds himself as a hitter, but if he can't he will be a bust.  I don't like saying that, but I can't spin this one.. Buxton was being compared to Jackie Bradley last year when Bradley hit well in the first half of 2016. Well, Bradley didn't hit last year and he isn't this year.  Still he is hitting better than Buxton.  He is also on par with Buxton in the field. Buxton isn't even Jackie Bradley Jr. at the current moment.