Article: Awkward Decisions

[Otto von Ballpark]

In addition to the excellent replies above by Fargoguy, Mike, and Carole above, don’t forget Mauer doesn’t play first base once per series. Which is bad enough in itself, but becomes really limiting when someone else isn’t in the lineup.

 

Give Sano a sore hammy, and now what’s the lineup look like, with Mauer not at first?

 

If Mauer is splitting 1B/DH with a guy like Morrison or Austin, it looks pretty much the same, except with your utility infielder in place of Sano at 3B.

 

Admittedly it might make it hard to roster a non-1B DH like, say, Nelson Cruz. Although a guy like Donaldson could probably still fit.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

By the way, for those Jonesing for a return of Dozier, here's his stats with the Twins and with the Dodgers:

 

With Twins - .227/.307/405 (.712), 92 OPS+, 22% SOs, 96/46 K/BB, 16 HRs, 52 RBIs in 462 PAs

With Dodgers - .212/.331/.385(.716), 95 OPS+, 18% SOs, 21/19 K/BB, 4 HRs, 15 RBIS in 124 PAs.

 

Looks like the same guy. A little less on the SOs, a little better K/BB ratio (that could change in a week), a little less power in LA, a mediocre SLG% going to bad. 6 for his last 39, sound familiar? Bottom line, let's NOT get him back.  

Dozier is not coming back, so it's irrelevant whether we want him back or not. A streak of 6-39 would not persuade me in any case. 

 

Yes, I still would have preferred the front office kept the 2017 core together for the remainder of 2018, rather than breaking the team up resulting in the product we are seeing now, and the unmeasurable costs the team is paying for that breakup. 

Edited September 4, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Squirrel]

What's the alternative? Or put better, what''s the alternative assuming we don't sign Machado? I'd love to get him, but I think he will stay in LA or wind up in Chicago. 

 

I'd love to upgrade the linep but there are too many posts which cry for an upgrade without names. I know you don't do that, you've been steadfast in saying we need to sign Machado. I live in LA and can tell you that they want him to stay here. That's a tough battle for the Twins to win with less money (shouldn't be but will), worse weather, and a losing team. I think anyone who's looking to tell Mauer to leave or crying for an upgrade at a position should say who that is and how much it will cost and handicap our chances. Otherwise, it's just air. 

 

I'll even go first. I don't think we will/can get Machado, Kershaw or (unfortunately) Grandal, so I take them off the table. I think we can and should get Patrick Corbin or Garrett Richards as a starting pitcher, and Escobar as an IF. I'd like to get Martin Moldanado as a glove first catcher, but that only makes sense if we trade Castro or if he can't come back. I'm assuming that ESan, Morrison and Forsythe are gone, not to return. I think we trade a AAA pitcher not named Romero or Mejia (yes, that includes Gonsalves) and someone else at a lower level for Starlin Castro of the Marlins to play SS or 2B. I would also sign Blevins, Brach or  Kimbrel for the BP. I'm assuming Mauer comes back for a year. That leaves:

 

1B/3B/DH - Mauer, Sano, Austin

2b/SS/UTL - Polanco, S Castro, 

Super utility - Escobar - plays somewhere or DHs every day

OF - Rosario, Kepler, Cave, Buxton

C - Garver, J Castro

SP - Corbin or Richards, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda (Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart and DeJong in AAA unless traded)

BP - Blevins/Brach, Hildenberger, May, Rogers, Moya, Busenitz, Mejia (also 6th starter), Reed (Vasquez, Curtiss, Magill, Drake in AAA, Duffy anywhere else for God's sake)

 

I go with 8 in the BP and Escobar as the super utility.  The DH is a combo of guys getting days off, Austin, and Escobar. Normal lineup is:

 

Polanco - 2B/SS

Rosario - LF

Castro - 2B/SS

Mauer/Austin - 1B

Escobar - DH/3B

Sano - 3B/DH

Cave - RF

Garver/Castro - C

Kepler/Buxton - CF

 

If Mauer retires, Austin/Sano/Escobar are the everyday 1B/3B/Dh with each of them getting days off replaced by Kepler. We can then add a glove first middle infielder or a LH bench bat - maybe Rooker? This looks like a decent but not great team - 85-90 wins at best, 75-80 wins if things go south - but could be better if 3 of the Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Cave, Garver group really step up and 1 or 2 become all-stars. Not a great chance of that, but I think that's where we are. .

 

I don’t know who right now as I don’t know everyone available on the FA market, nor do I know who all might make good trading partners. But this team needs impact and I don’t think that is coming from in house. I disagree that the Twins can’t compete financially for Machado, but they can’t compete with being on a coast and being a ‘winner’ right now. We have more room financially than anyone to add someone of Machado’s caliber and if we don’t it won’t be because we can’t but because we won’t. And I think there would still be room to add a good SP and a good BP arm or two. And we will still be needing significant turn-around from a couple of our players that will be on the team next year.

[ThejacKmp]

 

We are going to have to agree to disagree. I'm not sure that Escobar is coming back. There is no equivalent option in free agency or anywhere in the organization. Playing Sano at 1B puts a utility infielder at 2nd and 3rd. Austin's best position is probably DH. I don't want to count on him to play much 1B or in the outfield. I think you need to limit your pitching staff to 12 to justify keeping a player like Mauer. I would actually prefer to carry a player like Mauer than an 8th relief pitcher, but I don't see it happening.

 

Oh no one is guaranteeing Escobar comes back, he just makes sense and the Twins have money to spend. I'm confident that Escobar's market isn't going to be insane (he's had 1.5 good years) and he'll be in the Twins range. But regardless, they'll be in the 2B market because Gordon isn't ready.

 

Sano should be an occasional 1B/DH/ His value is playing 3B. I think a strong argument can be made that the Twins should upgrade their utility IF but that's harder to do than it sounds. You tend to get Adrianza's because there's no guaranteed PT. Nick Gordon or Arraez might be a nice midseason upgrade at utility IF (playing 4-5 days a week if the Twins give rest and shift guys around and use defensive subs). 

 

No way you need to limit Mauer, look at that roster above. Yeah you can change out Adrianza or Escobar but assuming the Twins get a 2B and their utility infielder can play the regular utility positions, they have depth at all of the positions. They're perhaps a little heavy at 1B types but that doesn't mean they are deficient elsewhere. Well covered in the OF, decent starters in the IF (could upgrade Adrianza), and a decent amount of 1B/DH types so they can play matchups.

 

If they get Cruz or Donaldson or Macahdo or Harper that's different but those seem unlikely for the most part.

Edited September 4, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

He's too good a hitter to sit around 1/2 the year.

 

Mauer isn't good, compared to other 1B or DH. The lineup you propose is pretty much this year's lineup. I am not interested in this team standing still, not even a little. 

 

He's not too good a hitter to sit half the year. He's got a 102 OPS+, he's an average hitter. The kind who are fringe backups for good teams. However, for a catcher he's a very good hitter. I think the argument should more be getting him to work his way into the lion's share of the catching minutes next year, even though Castro has the platoon advantage.

 

I have no problem with this year's lineup coming back. The Twins had everything go wrong (Morrison injured/bad, Mauer concussed, Polanco 'roiding, Buxton hurt/sucking, Sano out of shape/bad, Castro injured, Dozier terrible) but it still was a good lineup on paper. Buxton almost has to be better, Sano seems more dedicated to being ready to play, Morrison is gone, Polanco will get a full year, Castro/Garver is a nice platoon with some young upside, Austin is a huge upgrade on Grossman and provides righty pop. They need a better 2B (Escobar etc.) and could certainly beef up 1B via trade (free agency seems a dicey proposition) but overall, that's not a bad lineup. 

 

That lineup was great in 2017, just because it was bad in 2018 doesn't mean we should rip it up.

[Mike Sixel]

Average players are fringe backups? What does that make Joe Mauer?

 

Does anyone think Castro will play less than Garver? Not with this manger, imo.

Edited September 5, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Tomj14]

 

Totally guesswork. But it won't be $13-23 million and it won't be $1-2 million. So, I can broaden it to $3-12 million.

If Mauer comes back for one or two years, does it matter what he makes? Even if it is 15 million per, does that stop the Twins from saying anybody because of payroll size. I say No.

[Tomj14]

Is it an awkward decisions for the Twins to start relief pitchers that can't get though the 1st without giving up runs, and still not have the "starter" make it past the 5th?

Of all the things baseball has done, I hate this worse than anything else. If the Twins do this next year, I will not go to a game that isn't started by an actual starter.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If Mauer comes back for one or two years, does it matter what he makes? Even if it is 15 million per, does that stop the Twins from saying anybody because of payroll size. I say No.

 

Doesn't matter to me. 

[Mr. Brooks]

If it doesn't matter what Mauer makes, then I never again want to hear about budgetary constraints when we come in second place for a FA signing.

 

Can't have it both ways. Either the Twins are mid market with budgetary constraints, and need to make every dollar count, or the money doesn't matter and they should be able to top any offer for Machado and/or Kershaw.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I really don't think it's only the money that keeeps away a Kershaw or Machado type - it's the losing. These guys are typically at a point in their careers where they can command a long term contract and want to be on a team in a place where there is a committment to winning and contending yearly. The Twins don't have that reputation right now, the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, etc. all do.  Why go be the bell cow on a losing team that MIGHT contend in the future when you can get the same money or more to be part of a winner? 

 

Well, if it is the same money or more, then it isn't about the money........but that's not the argument. The argument is that if the money is DIFFERENT, then the highest bidder is going to win. 

[Channing1964]

time most certainly will tell. Since we have the FOOY in place already i am sure we will end up with some Cleveland Indian or Texas Rangers retread in place on opening day 2019. WAIT!!! was that Gimenez starting at 1b the other day?? Now i get it...My bad. Not to worry Twins fans we had Mauer's replacement all along.

 

The two of them together contributed close to nothing this year. We could fill their spots with average major leaguers and it would be an upgrade

[Channing1964]

Is there anybody out there that really believes Joe Mauer doesn't deserve a chance to go to Spring Training and compete for a spot on the ROSTER?? After what hes done for us doesnt he DESERVE that? Assuming he wants to play baseball any more, would he ask for anything more than a chance to make the team. If you know Joe, and we do. He'll play for whatever they give him...and play well too. Nobody takes his spot unlessnhe let's em do it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is there anybody out there that really believes Joe Mauer doesn't deserve a chance to go to Spring Training and compete for a spot on the ROSTER?? After what hes done for us doesnt he DESERVE that? Assuming he wants to play baseball any more, would he ask for anything more than a chance to make the team. If you know Joe, and we do. He'll play for whatever they give him...and play well too. Nobody takes his spot unlessnhe let's em do it.

 

How would you decide, based on like 10 spring training games? And, if you do that, you aren't signing a FA or trading for competition for him, are you? So, he kind of wins......

 

No, he doesn't deserve it at all. He got a contract, both sides honored it, and now he should be judged as being more or less valuable than other options. If not, how many years does this go on? Because at some point, everyone here would stop playing him, even if he wanted to play until he was 100.

[Channing1964]

my point is, why are we talking about this. Is Joe Mauer gonna hold the Twins at gun point forba one year 25 million dollar deal. Hell no, where have you been. If he can't perform he will go home from Florida and retire. Go ahead and try to replace him. He will give it all he's got just like he always has. He deserves a chance to make the team. He wouldn't ask for anything more. If he can stand playing for this front office any more.

[ewen21]

 

Is there anybody out there that really believes Joe Mauer doesn't deserve a chance to go toSpring Training and compete for a spot on the ROSTER?? After what hes done for us doesnt he DESERVE that? Assuming he wants to play baseball any more, would he ask for anything more than a chance to make the team. If you know Joe, and we do. He'll play for whatever they give him...and play well too. Nobody takes his spot unlessnhe let's em do it.

So what if he doesn't make the team?  Does he accept an assighment?

 

It doesn't work that way.  The team ultimately decides what dierection it goes.  Why in the world should we sign a concussed 36 year old player who is way past his prime?  What if he gets another concussion?

 

It really is kind of silly thinking about it on those terms.

[Mike Sixel]

 

my point is, why are we talking about this. Is Joe Mauer gonna hold the Twins at gun point forba one year 25 million dollar deal. Hell no, where have you been. If he can't perform he will go home from Florida and retire. Go ahead and try to replace him. He will give it all he's got just like he always has. He deserves a chance to make the team. He wouldn't ask for anything more. If he can stand playing for this front office any more.

 

How good or bad does he have to be to not be on the team for you? He can only play about 100 games a year now.....and only 1B or DH. He's a league average hitter at the easiest defensive positions in the game (league average including pitchers and catchers in the numbers). What does "can't perform" mean to you? I'm just curious.....also, it's not hard to replace him.

 

Austin, Garver, Kepler, Sano, 4th/5th OFer at DH some, free agent, trade. All of those are likely to outhit him next year, and offer position flexibility. 

 

I'm assuming if he was the worst hitter in baseball, people wouldn't want him on the roster....how far up the list do people have to go for him to be on the roster of a very good team, playing 100 games, and only at 1b/DH?

Edited September 5, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[USAFChief]

my point is, why are we talking about this. Is Joe Mauer gonna hold the Twins at gun point forba one year 25 million dollar deal. Hell no, where have you been. If he can't perform he will go home from Florida and retire. Go ahead and try to replace him. He will give it all he's got just like he always has. He deserves a chance to make the team. He wouldn't ask for anything more. If he can stand playing for this front office any more.

He’s going to...what? Come to spring tng on a minor league deal? No guaranteed money?

 

It doesn’t work that way.

[Channing1964]

My bad you guys are exactly right. I am sure we'd be better off with some combination of Morrison, Austin(who couldnt even beat out Neil Walker out for the Yankees 1b job), Garver, and Kepler. I dont see the FO prepared for replacing the people they traded let alone being prepared to push Mauer out the door. I guess that's the answer to my question. They will do the worst, maddening, and unpopular thing available to them. so....bye Joe. 70-92 is prolly a good prediction for the 2019 Twindians.