Article: Awkward Decisions

[ThejacKmp]

 

He won’t start that many games this year. He only started 131 in 2017, easily his most productive season offensively in years. 126 starts in 2016, 154 in 2015, 118 in 2014, his first year as a non catcher. IMO 125 starts in 2019 is extremely unlikely. Even if he doesn’t land on the DL, which is pretty likely to happen given his age and injury history. 110 is a more realistic number I think. And therein lies the problem. You have a wasted roster spot for 50 games, almost 1/3 of the season. Some said he can pinch hit. Sure. The Twins have used a pinch hitter in less than half their games this year. And how many of those were “throw away” at bats in blow outs? The kind Mauer wouldn’t get anyway. Point being, the days of having a dangerous pinch hitter lurking are gone in the AL.

 

I think you're undervaluing the benefit of having a good pinch hitter but that's likely something we just disagree on.

 

If he's injured, it's not a wasted roster spot, they can bring someone else up. And I don't see it as a wasted spot either. It's an opportunity for guys like Garver to get in the lineup more. Or a way to get a young guy coming up (Gordon, Rooker) into 2 of the 4-5 times a week you want them to play. A chance to get a backup on a hot streak (Cave) an extra game. It's not a wasted roster spot. You can't have everyone play 160 games. Mauer playing 110 just means 50 extra games to spread around to other guys.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Anybody. I don't care whom. Joe isn't a good offensive player anymore and he is an albatross if you can't bench him or release him.

 

If he and the manager agree to the possibility of a largely reduced role, and if the fans are made aware of it at the time of signing. Great, do it. Otherwise, run away.

 

I can't believe you won't take a shot. C'mon. What's your internal + Escobar 12 man position player roster? Who do you add if you get 13? 

 

You show me yours I'll show you mine! :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

110 is a more realistic number I think. And therein lies the problem. You have a wasted roster spot for 50 games, almost 1/3 of the season.

It's not wasted while Mauer is on the DL. Mauer's non-starting, non-DL time this year is more like 14%, and that doesn't have to change for 2019.

[PseudoSABR]

Buxton turns out to be worth keeping at the age 28 season, I hope we sign him to an extension, making this issue moot.

[ThejacKmp]

 

What you fear is actually a good test. If the manager can't reduce Mauer's role if his performance drops, then I don't want him as my manager. Same for my general manager. And if ownership gets involved to make him play, then I wouldn't want to work here as a manager or GM either.

I am encouraged that we've already seen Mauer play less, and go to the DL quicker, it seems, even while he is finishing out his mega-contract. I am not too worried about his performance leash if he comes back next year on a 1 year, $5 mil deal or whatever. (That said, I can also see other directions to take the position/lineup/roster.)

 

And it's not like Joe Mauer is Matt Harvey or Barry Bonds. He's the nicest guy in the world. If you can't find a way to tell a struggling Joe Mauer that he's going to play a bit less, you shouldn't be a babysitter, let alone a manager/general manager.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Buxton turns out to be worth keeping at the age 28 season, I hope we sign him to an extension, making this issue moot.

It's still not moot. Having control over Buxton for that extra season gives the Twins much more leverage in extension talks. 

[ashbury]

Buxton turns out to be worth keeping at the age 28 season, I hope we sign him to an extension, making this issue moot.

An extra year of control affects the nature of that extension, which in turn has a trickle down effect on other financial decisions made concerning the roster at that time. But, as I said, I'm not inclined to play such transparent games in this situation.

 

_{^{/ ninja'd - great minds think alike, and fools rarely differ.}}

[Kelly Vance]

 

The shrewd move is to shut Buxton down.

 

The shrewd move is to offer Mauer a one year deal at a part-timer salary and let him know his role has changed.

I disagree either act is "shrewd."  I would call them "self defeating" in the long run.  I would also consider calling them "short sighted." or maybe "conniving."   Like saying "Look, we know how to leverage players...ain't we smart?"  Um, no. That's the Calvin Griffith way. 

 

You want good players to want to play here you treat them like family. Baseball is a business, but players like to be appreciated. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

How do you want to fix it?

 

Sano is a third baseman. What good does it do to "fix" 1B and then need to fill 3B? Especially when you make Sano significantly less valuable in the process.

In a vacuum, sure, moving Sano from 3B to 1B makes him a less valuable player. But for the Twins, I'm not sure that's true. Does anyone really think this team is better off in 2019 with Sano at 3B and Mauer at 1B than with, say, Escobar at 3B and Sano at 1B? 

 

The defensive upgrade at third is far more impactful than the downgrade at first. (And I happen to think Miggy can be a fine 1B once he gets acclimated.) Esco is pretty clearly a better hitter than Mauer at this point and he's 5 years younger.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

I'd sign Josh Donaldson for third, and Sano is my first baseman (hopefully for the next decade).

I am confused how this does anything to help anyone who wants to see the Twins compete at the highest levels.  Seems more like a recipe for disaster to me.  But that's what makes a market, I guess.

[Nick Nelson]

Question for the pro "call up Buxton" crowd: What happens if he comes up and hits terribly in September? Frankly, that's a pretty likely scenario in my mind. It's nice that he's crushing Triple-A pitching (as a 24-year-old) while swinging at everything but there is little evidence that approach is gonna work for him in the majors. 

 

If this happens, how could we look back at the decision as anything more than an epic blunder, giving up a year of control so he could come back and struggle for like 40-50 PAs? 

 

Personally, I think the work he puts in during the offseason far outweighs whatever value he'll get from starting sporadically for three weeks in September. And I'd just as soon let him get started early on that. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

In a vacuum, sure, moving Sano from 3B to 1B makes him a less valuable player. But for the Twins, I'm not sure that's true. Does anyone really think this team is better off in 2019 with Sano at 3B and Mauer at 1B than with, say, Escobar at 3B and Sano at 1B?

 

The defensive upgrade at third is far more impactful than the downgrade at first. (And I happen to think Miggy can be a fine 1B once he gets acclimated.) Esco is pretty clearly a better hitter than Mauer at this point and he's 5 years younger.

I know it's mostly a separate issue, but I'm not sure I am comfortable relying on Sano's bat anymore at either position...

[Thebigalguy]

I find myself agreeing with much of what I've read here, both in Nick's article and in the comments section. Mauer's average with RISP hasn't received as much attention as it deserves. He hits when it counts. I'd like to see him come back on a two-year contract that includes not only playing time but also a role as consultant or coach. That would give him and the team a comfortable way to reduce his playing time as part of the plan, depending on his productivity and the productivity of alternatives. We all saw how LoMo worked out. I think Mauer has a place on the 2020 championship Twins. That's when Falvine will own it, for better or worse. After that, no reason not to have Mauer spending the rest of his professional life in some capacity with the Twins.

 

As for Buxton: the Twins got rid of Span (and Ben Revere) too soon. Hicks wasn't ready. Buxton has been Hicks redux, with even more speed and defensive brilliance. Now at 28, Hicks is a .250 hitter with power and speed who has struck out 94 times in about 400 at bats. I see no reason Buxton can't do likewise (at least), with additional seasoning. As for bringing him up in September, why? We need to know if Cave, Granite, Austin (wow, sounds like a powerful archetypal tandem, if it's names alone that count) and a few others can make the nut. I'd keep the extra year of control and let him rest unless doing so creates an emotional chasm between Buxton and the front office. If the guy's heart is set on coming up, then keeping him off the September roster could be more trouble down the line than it's worth. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Question for the pro "call up Buxton" crowd: What happens if he comes up and hits terribly in September? Frankly, that's a pretty likely scenario in my mind. It's nice that he's crushing Triple-A pitching (as a 24-year-old) while swinging at everything but there is little evidence that approach is gonna work for him in the majors.

 

If this happens, how could we look back at the decision as anything more than an epic blunder, giving up a year of control so he could come back and struggle for like 40-50 PAs?

 

Personally, I think the work he puts in during the offseason far outweighs whatever value he'll get from starting sporadically for three weeks in September. And I'd just as soon let him get started early on that.

Buxton can be optioned for ~29 days to start 2019 to get the same extra year of control.

 

The greater chance of an "epic blunder" would seem to be counting on him for opening day 2019, regardless of what you do with him this September.

[Blackjack]

I started reading down thru this thread with the clear idea "keep Buxton down, gain the year of control, he's played and injured himself into this position", screw him. 

 

After reading thru the posts, I've been convinced that having him up for September getting major league at bats and coaching is probably best for his long term development. Especially when someone pointed out that he can be sent down for 29 days next year to gain that extra year of control. Make it clear to Buxton that next spring he is not guaranteed a job, make it clear that we're going to give you the 'Sano' treatment if he's floundering.

 

Somebody also has to get it into his head that thinking hes Superman and can run thru walls is actually hurting his career and the Twins. Save that for the last out in the World Series.

[Blackjack]

As for Mauer, I'm going to be more sentimental here and just say I hope he doesn't come back, just because of the injury risk and long term consequences.  Go read up on Jim Mcmahon or other concussion victims.

 

But if Joe had that concern I think he would have retired mid-season, so I think he'll want to come back, and again being sentimental, I'd say let him. I don't want to see him playing for another team. Theres a place for his defense and good at bats and i don't seriously think the Twins are going to contend next year, he's not holding anyone back.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

I started reading down thru this thread with the clear idea "keep Buxton down, gain the year of control, he's played and injured himself into this position", screw him. 

 

After reading thru the posts, I've been convinced that having him up for September getting major league at bats and coaching is probably best for his long term development. Especially when someone pointed out that he can be sent down for 29 days next year to gain that extra year of control. Make it clear to Buxton that next spring he is not guaranteed a job, make it clear that we're going to give you the 'Sano' treatment if he's floundering.

 

Somebody also has to get it into his head that thinking hes Superman and can run thru walls is actually hurting his career and the Twins. Save that for the last out in the World Series.

 

I agree with this. Bring him up in September and let him hit against MLB pitchers. I feel the Twins are going to be in a much better position next year if Buxton does struggle out of the gate. They can easily send him back down to AAA or wherever and go with an outfield of Rosario, Cave and Kepler. The Twins also have some prospects at both AA and AAA they could bring up in a pinch to get them some at bats.

 

AAA: Wade and Granite

AA: Rooker, Wiel and Davis

[ThejacKmp]

 

In a vacuum, sure, moving Sano from 3B to 1B makes him a less valuable player. But for the Twins, I'm not sure that's true. Does anyone really think this team is better off in 2019 with Sano at 3B and Mauer at 1B than with, say, Escobar at 3B and Sano at 1B? 

 

The defensive upgrade at third is far more impactful than the downgrade at first. (And I happen to think Miggy can be a fine 1B once he gets acclimated.) Esco is pretty clearly a better hitter than Mauer at this point and he's 5 years younger.

Yeah, but then you still need a second baseman. Gordon doesn't seem ready and Adrianza is a nice utility guy but not a starter at 2B. In order to get someone quality, you'd need to likely go at least two years, maybe three. I don't like signing two 2B/SS/3B to multi-year deals because of the talent coming up. Yeah you can trade people but that's always a messy situation.

 

I don't think its as simple as Escobar/Sano vs. Mauer/Sano. It's about 2019 and 2020 and it's about 2B.

[Vanimal46]

Moving Sano from 3B to 1B takes away his valuable arm. His range at the hot corner may be limited, but he makes outs he has no business making using that laser arm.

 

If he continues to lose weight and work on his defense, why can't he play 3B next season?

 

His bat is an entirely different topic and I concur with spycake on that. I don't trust his bat enough right now for either position.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Question for the pro "call up Buxton" crowd: What happens if he comes up and hits terribly in September? Frankly, that's a pretty likely scenario in my mind. It's nice that he's crushing Triple-A pitching (as a 24-year-old) while swinging at everything but there is little evidence that approach is gonna work for him in the majors. 

 

If this happens, how could we look back at the decision as anything more than an epic blunder, giving up a year of control so he could come back and struggle for like 40-50 PAs? 

 

Personally, I think the work he puts in during the offseason far outweighs whatever value he'll get from starting sporadically for three weeks in September. And I'd just as soon let him get started early on that. 

Let him hit .100, who cares, as long as he's hitting .100 because he's trying to make some kind of an adjustment. There's only so much you can do in the cage/over the offseason. At some point you've got to do it against live pitching.

 

He's going to be much better off in the long run for having struggled through those 40-50 PAs as opposed to just sending him home. Also, you wouldn't want to get as many looks at him as possible for evaluation purposes? Maybe even just getting him out there will help him realize how other teams have him scouted/how pitchers are generally going about attacking him at the plate.

 

If there were no service time considerations, I'd imagine sending him home wouldn't even be thrown out as a possibility and he'd probably already have rejoined the big club by now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You could give Sano the Buxton treatment too; he also has an option remaining after this season. A little harder since we already recalled him in 2018, so it would take longer to gain an extra year of control next year -- if we optioned him to start 2019, we probably couldn't call him up until late June. But maybe he could use the work, and the motivation of not being given a job at 3B, 1B, or DH? We've got the money to fill all of those spots externally, if we want.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I can't believe you won't take a shot. C'mon. What's your internal + Escobar 12 man position player roster? Who do you add if you get 13? 

 

You show me yours I'll show you mine! :-)

 

Fine I'll go first. For those not following the chain, we're doing a 12 (and 13) man position player list using only internal + Escobar (because we love Escobar and the Twins will get a FA 2B). The point is to see if Mauer would be one of the Twins best internal options in 2019.

 

​C

1. Castro

2. Garver

 

OF
​3. Buxton

4. Kepler

5. Rosario
6. ​Cave (4th OF)

7. Austin (regular DH, platoon 1B)

​IF

8. Escobar (2B, occasional 3B)

9. Polanco (SS)

10. Sano (occasional DH)

11, Adrianza (fill-in 2B, SS, 3B)

12. Mauer (1B/DH)

 

I don't even know who I'd use for spot #13. Seems like OF is super covered since Adrianza and Garver could also fill in in a pinch so I guess I'd go with Astudillo since he's an emergency IF and you have a third catcher and can use Garver more aggressively at DH if his hitting gets better in his sophomore campaign.

 

Overall I'd say that I don't see a reasonable alternative to Mauer internally. I guess you could go for Wade and make Austin/Kepler your 1B but I'm not sure that Wade is best served being the 5th OF with the emergence of Cave. Granite also seems superfluous. I'd much rather have them in AAA working every day and serving as Buxton insurance.

 

Externally is a different matter. If the Twins go after a 1B/DH, I could see Mauer being the odd man out. But again, not sure who that massive upgrade is barring a pretty significant trade or the Twins making a serious run at Nelson Cruz.

Edited August 30, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[nicksaviking]

 

I can't believe you won't take a shot. C'mon. What's your internal + Escobar 12 man position player roster? Who do you add if you get 13? 

 

You show me yours I'll show you mine! :-)

 

I"d prefer the front office surprise me with a 3B and/or SS and/or 2B and/or corner OF this year in trade or free agency but if this hypothetical is just Escobar, whom I'd also welcome back, I'd role with:

 

C: Garver/Castro

2B: Escobar/Polanco/Adrianza

SS: Polanco/Adrianza

3B: Sano/Escobar/Adrianza

LF: Rosario/Cave

CF: Buxton/Cave/Kepler

RF: Kepler/Cave/Austin

 

1B: Sano/Austin/Kepler

DH: Whomever's turn it is to have a day off from defense

 

Out of those players, and under the hypothetical situation where Escobar is the only offensive addition, Adrianza and Castro would be the only ones who I could care less if they lose at bats.

 

12th bench bat who is internal in this exercise, I don't know, Austudillo? This is the spot I'd welcome Mauer back for, but it's very diminished and I'd think it might be a bit offensive to even offer it to him.

 

 

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I"d prefer the front office surprise me with a 3B and/or SS and/or 2B and/or corner OF this year in trade or free agency but if this hypothetical is just Escobar, whom I'd also welcome back, I'd role with:

 

C: Garver/Castro

2B: Escobar/Polanco

SS: Polanco/Adrianza

3B: Sano/Escobar

LF: Rosario

CF: Buxton/Cave/Kepler

RF: Kepler/Austin

and 1B: Sano/Austin/Kepler

DH: Whomever's turn it is to have a day off from defense

 

12th bench bat who is internal in this exercise, I don't know, Austudillo?

 

Out of those players, and under the hypothetical situation where Escobar is the only offensive addition, Adrianza and Castro would be the only ones who I could care less if they lose at bats.

 

That's only 11 players I think. Who is your #12? Teams don't go with two man benches for long. You'd be one nagging injury from a one man bench.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I"d prefer the front office surprise me with a 3B and/or SS and/or 2B and/or corner OF this year in trade or free agency but if this hypothetical is just Escobar, whom I'd also welcome back, I'd role with:

 

C: Garver/Castro

2B: Escobar/Polanco

SS: Polanco/Adrianza

3B: Sano/Escobar

LF: Rosario

CF: Buxton/Cave/Kepler

RF: Kepler/Austin

and 1B: Sano/Austin/Kepler

DH: Whomever's turn it is to have a day off from defense

 

12th bench bat who is internal in this exercise, I don't know, Austudillo?

 

Out of those players, and under the hypothetical situation where Escobar is the only offensive addition, Adrianza and Castro would be the only ones who I could care less if they lose at bats.

 

Assuming Molitor will not be excited to regularly use the backup C as DH, your DH options most days is going to be chosen from Cave or Adrianza. That's rough. Internally, Mauer makes sense for person #12 and can play 1B and shift Sano/Austin to DH.

 

Agreed that if the Twins go out and sign a 3B or 1B type, Mauer may be the one to go. But not sure who that would be. Point being, Mauer's spot is only taken if the Twins look externally at corner IF or DH. Will they? Time will tell.

[ThejacKmp]

 

You could give Sano the Buxton treatment too; he also has an option remaining after this season. A little harder since we already recalled him in 2018, so it would take longer to gain an extra year of control next year -- if we optioned him to start 2019, we probably couldn't call him up until late June. But maybe he could use the work, and the motivation of not being given a job at 3B, 1B, or DH? We've got the money to fill all of those spots externally, if we want.

 

But will you get external options that are quality on short-term contracts? You don't want to spend a bunch of money to build a log jam if you don't have to.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Moving Sano from 3B to 1B takes away his valuable arm. His range at the hot corner may be limited, but he makes outs he has no business making using that laser arm.

If he continues to lose weight and work on his defense, why can't he play 3B next season?

His bat is an entirely different topic and I concur with spycake on that. I don't trust his bat enough right now for either position.

 

I agree, I see nothing defensively that makes me think he can't play 3B.

 

The real issue is that bat. If he can't hit, it's going to be rough for the Twins. It's really hard to find starter quality backups on short deals - Escobar was the exception and not the rule this year. I think best bet is to get a guy like Escobar who can play 2B and 3B and then hope Sano is acceptable. If he's not, you hope that Gordon is ready to come up and play 2B. That's far from foolproof but if the alternative is multiple infielders on long-term deals (and an immediate log jam if Sano revers to near-All-Star form), I think its the best option.

Edited August 30, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[yarnivek1972]

I think you're undervaluing the benefit of having a good pinch hitter but that's likely something we just disagree on.

 

If he's injured, it's not a wasted roster spot, they can bring someone else up. And I don't see it as a wasted spot either. It's an opportunity for guys like Garver to get in the lineup more. Or a way to get a young guy coming up (Gordon, Rooker) into 2 of the 4-5 times a week you want them to play. A chance to get a backup on a hot streak (Cave) an extra game. It's not a wasted roster spot. You can't have everyone play 160 games. Mauer playing 110 just means 50 extra games to spread around to other guys.

I don’t undervalue having a pinch hitter on the bench. I just don’t see it as a realistic option given the constraints of the roster.

[Boom Boom]

I think it would be best if Mauer chose to retire, and save the Twins from falling over themselves to sign him.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don’t undervalue having a pinch hitter on the bench. I just don’t see it as a realistic option given the constraints of the roster.

 

Its not like he's a full-time pinch hitter. But when he sits, part of the value is having a really nice pinch hitter to put in a late inning situation. He's also an interesting pinch-hitter. I see three roles for pinch hitters:

 

1.) Hit the solo shot when you're down one or tied to win a game late. (Jose Bautista-type)

2.) The guy you want to sub in when you've got runners on and want a good at-bat (Tommy La Stella)

3.) The guy you start an inning off when you're down two and want to get a guy on (Grossman)

 

Joe is not #1 but is a pretty great #2 and #3. There's value in that, much as you'd love to have that #1 type.