Article: Awkward Decisions

[yarnivek1972]

haha well, people were climbing on top of each other to praise the Logan Morrison signing, and Morrison was 30 with just one good season, ever, period.

I wasn’t one of them. I’ve always been wary of Tampa hitters. Something seems to inflate their numbers. The actual numbers over the years say it’s a pretty neutral park or even a pitcher’s park, but extremely anecdotal evidence suggests to me, at least, that players leave there and fall off the cliff.

 

I suppose it could be playing tons of games at Yankee Stadium, Fenway and Camden Yards.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They have a hotshot third base prospect. They don't want to have Donaldson in front of him, blocking him.

 

I didn't conjecture this, do some googling. Sources close to the Jays are indicating they won't QO him. I guess you could move him to first if he accepted but maybe the Jays have guys there - don't know them well enough to say.

 

QO would be killer for Donaldson. Really hate that QO, it seems designed to F with the market.

But don't you think you might be over-rating the chances of a 4 year deal, if the Jays aren't even willing to make a QO? How many guys have gotten 4 year deals after their teams declined to make a QO?

[ThejacKmp]

 

But don't you think you might be over-rating the chances of a 4 year deal, if the Jays aren't even willing to make a QO? How many guys have gotten 4 year deals after their teams declined to make a QO?

 

I think this is a pretty unique non-QO deal. Most teams would QO him but because they have Vlad the Impaler II coming up, the Jays are afraid he'll take it. You can't trade guys with the QO without their consent until June 15 and Donaldson might be justifiably upset that the Jays QO'd him only to trade him and muck it up.

 

At least that's what I read, could be off. But assuming he has good medicals, can't see why he wouldn't be a solid second tier free agent. Dude can rake.

[ThejacKmp]

 

haha well, people were climbing on top of each other to praise the Logan Morrison signing, and Morrison was 30 with just one good season, ever, period.

 

Morrison was a good signing. The Twins paid enough that if he was normal LM, it was good. If he kept his 30 HR ways it was a steal. And they even retained an option for a second year, sweetening the pot.

 

Just because something doesn't work out doesn't mean it was a bad signing. I hope they continue to make similar signings.

[S.]

 

Morrison was a good signing. The Twins paid enough that if he was normal LM, it was good. If he kept his 30 HR ways it was a steal. And they even retained an option for a second year, sweetening the pot.

 

Just because something doesn't work out doesn't mean it was a bad signing. I hope they continue to make similar signings.

I think the Morrison signing also looks worse due to the usage of him and our awful lineups. If everyone else was healthy and playing decently, it is likely he would've got less play time and been lower in the lineup when he did play, or at least that is a reasonable assumption. Granted, his numbers look bad anywhere in the lineup, but even still

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Just because something doesn't work out doesn't mean it was a bad signing.

But helps if the player, umm, plays well.  

[Riverbrian]

 

See, I think Mauer in a greatly reduced role is actually *worse* than re-signing him to start. He is pretty useless on a modern MLB bench. Backup 1B/DH? He can pinch hit, probably only for a few guys, and most of the time you will need someone else to take over on defense.

Whereas, if he starts, depending on your roster configuration, he doesn't necessarily affect the size or composition of your bench.

 

You can sign Mauer with the intention of him being the "starting" 1B.

 

What you can't do is let signing Mauer prevent you from bringing in a guy who could be better. 

 

You just need a guy who can play 1B and someplace else. 

 

Prepare for success and Prepare for failure at the same time. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think this is a pretty unique non-QO deal. Most teams would QO him but because they have Vlad the Impaler II coming up, the Jays are afraid he'll take it. You can't trade guys with the QO without their consent until June 15 and Donaldson might be justifiably upset that the Jays QO'd him only to trade him and muck it up.

 

At least that's what I read, could be off. But assuming he has good medicals, can't see why he wouldn't be a solid second tier free agent. Dude can rake.

I googled it, and a few of the top hits were just as skeptical as I am:

 

https://bluejaysnation.com/2018/08/17/apparently-the-jays-are-worried-about-giving-josh-donaldson-a-qualifying-offer/

 

https://jaysjournal.com/2018/08/18/blue-jays-dont-worry-josh-donaldson-qualifying-offer/

 

The top two hits I saw pushing the "no QO" angle were just video/audio. Maybe just media trying to generate interest in a lost season?

 

Do you agree with the no QO idea? Because it seems quite at odds with your assessment of Donaldson's abilities and his market value.

 

Yeah, they have Vlad Jr., but they could pretty easily make more room at 1B/DH. And keep in mind that as good as he is, Vlad Jr. has yet to play a full 162 game season, and spent a month on the DL this summer. And they also have a lot of payroll room (as I mentioned, a QO would be a pay cut for Donaldson) and not a lot of places to spend it.

 

If they actually want to surround Vlad Jr. with a competitive team, they would be pretty foolish to turn down free negotiating leverage with Donaldson. Assuming Donaldson isn't damaged goods, if he accepts they are a demonstrably better team in 2019; if he declines, they have a leg up on resigning him if they want, or they pocket extra draft picks (which could make it easier to trade prospects to help the team too).

[Riverbrian]

 

I think if you sign Mauer to a Morrison or Rondell White type contract, I think it could absolutely come with an expectation that his playing time could be reduced by June if he struggles or is hurt. I'd like to see the front office make that clear and achievable among the stakeholders rather than avoid it entirely out of fear.

 

You are just trying to get me started. 

[Riverbrian]

 

 

I'm tired of Twins rosters where the bench players are bench players because they provide significantly less value than the starters. I want the players on the bench to consistently provide value when a matchup dictates it, not just play on day games after night games or when a starter needs a break.

 

 

 

From your Lips (Fingers) straight to Falvey/Lavine/Moltor Ears(Eyeballs). 

 

A perfect paragraph!!! 

[Riverbrian]

 

If you can't find a way to tell a struggling Joe Mauer that he's going to play a bit less, you shouldn't be a babysitter, let alone a manager/general manager.

 

I apologize but I can't help myself.

 

They might be able to say to someone that they are going to play less... but they don't seem to be able to actually play someone less. 

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Sounds like the Twins won’t be calling Bucton up.

[Jacksson]

I think we are seeing the cumulative effect of concussions on Joe. He is "off" this year because of not being fully recovered from "Concussion Symptoms" earlier this year. He accomplishes nothing by playing beyond this year: no World Series, mo meaningful records, he's not a clubhouse leader, and doesn't need the money - nor the humbling from taking a huge pay cut. If he values his long term health and his family, he should just walk away and let the Twins move on without him.

Edited September 1, 2018 by Jacksson

[Riverbrian]

 

 

You want good players to want to play here you treat them like family. Baseball is a business, but players like to be appreciated. 

 

Dear Byron,

 

We appreciate you so much that we'd like you to stay in Minnesota an extra year. 

 

Sincerely,

 

Twins Front Office 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I know it's mostly a separate issue, but I'm not sure I am comfortable relying on Sano's bat anymore at either position...

 

Yep

 

I'm amazed at the ability of others to just pencil stuff in. 

[DocBauer]

I have expressed my indifference on Mauer in other posts.  I am not bothered with either decision on him, he is near the end, which is when players typically reach milestone numbers. 

 

But Buxton is the one who perplexes me.  What I cannot know and is the crux of the question is - will Buxton in 2019 be better for having September in the majors or will he be better by taking an extra month off?   I know Buxton has physical issues, but I believe that mental approach and thought process have as much to do with his success.  Good luck figuring out this issue.

Absolutely! 100%! The changes that have already taken place within the system thus far, a record payroll and aggressive nature last off season to see if we could build on 2017...this is NOT a post or thread about woulda/coulda/busted expectations...tell me the FO isn't really concerned about an extra year.

 

I say again, what is best for Buxton is also in the best interest of the entire organization. THAT is what is paramount to all parties involved. Despite feasting on AAA pitching in SSS, has he earned additional ML time? I am absolutely NOT knocking the young man for his injuries, nor dismissing his potential. And I have NO IDEA what coaches are seeing from him at Rochester right now.

 

But we, and he, his agent, and everybody else needs to take a step back and just figure out what is best for Byron? What does he really need? Time off and a re-set to get ready for 2019? Or September ML time to work on things?

 

I'm glad I don't have to make the decision. S lot of guys, FO to coaches on down make a lot more money than me to figure this out. On the outside looking in? I'd say bring him up, but don't play him daily. Every other day, or 2of 3, watch video, hit off the T, work with Rowson, work on an approach where he just can identify pitches better and worry about contact and let his natural ability take control. Spend some time in the instructional league, and then get ready for 2019.

[Champuckett]

The great cushioning has commenced. 

 

You will see more of these articles as the team/fanbase/sportswriters slowly and as painlessly as possible, distance themselves from Mauer.  If only they had been written 6-7 years ago.

[beckmt]

I have seen reports that Buxton still is having some problems with the wrist.  That may be enough to let it heal and give him September off.  

Donaldson was traded last night (reported) to the Indians, no QO.  Would want a long look at the medicals before offering him a contract.  Still think he will get 3 years maybe close to $50 million.  Lot of risk here.

 

[beckmt]

Next question, 'How many Twins pitchers would be on a World Series team?'.  Berrios and maybe a couple of the relievers in middle inning roles (Hildenberger, Rogers) and maybe one or 2 others.  Gibson and Oderizzi  may be on the club, but left off of the playoff roster.  Stewart is still an unknown and Romero and Thorpe are possibilities.  With this analysis Twins need to buy some pitching (1- 2 starters and at least 2 relievers).  I would hope they look at the top of the market(they have the money).  Do not think Kershaw will leave LA unless his agent hears of an insane offer, so Twins are out of this, but need to find another top end starter and at least 1 - 2 of the better relievers.  There are risks here, but would rather try and fail than not to try.  

[beckmt]

Twins offense should be OK next year resigning Escobar and or Donaldson (if you are convinced he is healthy) or a short term 1 - 2 years second baseman and Escobar would be OK by me.  Mauer if cheap enough or another LH stick and Austin would be OK for first base.

Spend the money on pitching, you have two models:

1.  Very good starters so so pens (Houston, Cleveland, LA Dodgers, Chicago Cubs)

2.  Good not great starters - shutdown bullpens (NY Yankees, Oakland)

There is a third way and I am very interested in seeing how this plays out in the playoffs,  Great hitting, so-so pitching (Boston Milwaukee, Philadelphia)

Twins do not fit any of the models, so let's get going this offseason.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have seen reports that Buxton still is having some problems with the wrist. That may be enough to let it heal and give him September off.

 

Hmmm... this is the first I head of it. Seems like they are setting up cover for their decision to not call him up:

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/08/31/miguel-sano-wants-to-see-byron-buxton-back-in-the-majors-soon/amp/

 

Twins general manager Thad Levine, while allowing Buxton had “performed well down there,” suggested Buxton is still dealing to some extent with a left wrist issue.

 

“I think he’s still progressing toward being healthy, but to his credit he’s playing through it right now,” Levine said. “I think this was an injury we knew wouldn’t resolve itself immediately. It’s a matter of what he feels comfortable playing through. To his credit, when we’ve asked him to play, he’s stepped up and played.”

Falvey was quoted just a couple days ago in another Berardino article about Buxton and didn't mention any of that about the wrist -- just some generic stuff about doing "the best thing by all the players and ultimately how we build our team":

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/08/29/byron-buxton-doesnt-sound-like-a-lock-for-september-call-up/amp/

 

If they are still honestly asking him to play through an injury, at AAA during a lost season, then that seems pretty foolish in its own right.

[mikelink45]

A question that these posts bring up for me.  How often do players who are traded in season sign back with their original clubs?  I know Chapman signed with the Yankees, but I cannot think of others.   So many postings sound like Escobar is easy to sign, but I do not see it that way. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

A question that these posts bring up for me. How often do players who are traded in season sign back with their original clubs? I know Chapman signed with the Yankees, but I cannot think of others. So many postings sound like Escobar is easy to sign, but I do not see it that way.

Rick Aguilera, back in the day.

 

Cliff Lee was traded by Philly in the 2009-2010 offseason, then signed with them as a FA after 2010.

 

I wouldn't read too much into this -- the population of recently traded players is pretty small, and it's largely comprised of players who are playing well (so they will have a competitive FA market) and they were generally dealt from less competitive teams.

 

I agree that the Twins odds of signing Escobar aren't that high, but at the same time, I don't think we necessarily hurt those odds by trading him either.

[Riverbrian]

 

A question that these posts bring up for me.  How often do players who are traded in season sign back with their original clubs?  I know Chapman signed with the Yankees, but I cannot think of others.   So many postings sound like Escobar is easy to sign, but I do not see it that way. 

 

In my opinion, Escobar will be extremely easy to sign, if the Twins offer him the best deal. 

 

If they don't offer him the best deal... He will be impossible to sign. 

 

This would be the case if the Twins traded him or didn't trade him. 

 

But... All in All... It's going to be difficult to sign him because 29 other teams may also want him. That's why the extra year of Buxton discussion is kinda important.  

 

He is going to be a free agent after 12 years of being told where to play and for how much. He's going to take this moment seriously because he has been waiting 12 years for it and he isn't going to give away leverage and he isn't going to turn down the best deal because he is holding a grudge over being traded to a contender. 

 

I can't speak for everyone... But those of us who list Escobar in our plans for next year... Are hoping... maybe even demanding that the Twins are the team that gives him the best offer. 

[ThejacKmp]

In my opinion, Escobar will be extremely easy to sign, if the Twins offer him the best deal. 

 

If they don't offer him the best deal... He will be impossible to sign. 

 

This would be the case if the Twins traded him or didn't trade him. 

 

But... All in All... It's going to be difficult to sign him because 29 other teams may also want him. That's why the extra year of Buxton discussion is kinda important.  

 

He is going to be a free agent after 12 years of being told where to play and for how much. He's going to take this moment seriously because he has been waiting 12 years for it and he isn't going to give away leverage and he isn't going to turn down the best deal because he is holding a grudge over being traded to a contender. 

 

I can't speak for everyone... But those of us who list Escobar in our plans for next year... Are hoping... maybe even demanding that the Twins are the team that gives him the best offer.

 

I think we also are saying that he loved it here and that the twins may value him more than most teams after having him for so long and having uncertainty at multiple positions.

[ThejacKmp]

But helps if the player, umm, plays well.  

ALways better when they do.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins don't value Escobar more than most teams. Escobar was an "asset" to them that was traded away, for future assets. Said so right here on TwinsDaily

 

He won't want to come back. I doubt the Twins will make him a competitive offer anyway. What makes you think they will?

[Fargoguy]

In the era of 3 man benches, your standard bench players almost have to be a backup catcher, backup infielder, and backup outfielder.  Slotting Mauer into a bench spot requires your backup cf, catcher, or ss into the starting lineup.  Kepler could start and backup Buxton in CF if needed.  Keeping Mauer would mean a bench of Mauer, backup IF (probably Adrianza), and backup catcher.  Adrianza or Garver would need to play in the outfield to give an outfielder a day off and force Cave back to AAA.  Seems like a pretty weak lineup.  That's the real cost of keeping Mauer with a 13 man pitching staff.  

[Riverbrian]

 

I think we also are saying that he loved it here and that the twins may value him more than most teams after having him for so long and having uncertainty at multiple positions.

 

I have no idea how he felt about his time with the Twins. He seemed to be happy and smiling in those commercials. Maybe he liked his teammates and he skipped to work every day or maybe he resented the way Molitor over used his bullpen and it festered. 

 

I've worked with people who were happy after getting the short end of the stick and I've worked with people who got angry over a promotion or bonus. They come in all shapes and sizes and I have no idea if he was happy in Minnesota or not. 

 

I'm also not sure that the Twins will value him more because he can play multiple positions. I know that I would... but the Twins haven't been the team that values that sort of thing yet. I'm hoping they become that sort of team but so far, the organization tends to take the multiple position guy and de-value them as utility backups.

 

Where would Escobar have started the season if Polanco didn't get suspended? He would have been a backup at multiple positions and that wasn't a starting job. 

 

The way the Twins have always done business (I'm hoping they will change)... they will value Escobar as an everyday player at an assigned position. If they sign him (and that is a big if), it will be to an assigned position such as 2B and Escobar will then be our every day 2B removing immediately all flexibility value he has. If Sano gets hurt and we need a 3B... Escobar will stay at 2B and someone else will fill in for Sano at 3B. 

 

I hope and pray that this all changes for 2019 and they see the value in flexibility and take steps to encourage and develop more of it, but I have seen no outward signs of this intention thus far. 

 

I think the Twins will value Escobar more because they know what kind of player and personality he is, and this makes him more of a known quantity than say "Logan Morrison" who had spent a career in opposing dugouts. 

 

I think almost every major league team should have interest in Escobar regardless if they believe in flexibility or not, because, he can play 2B, 3B and SS. This makes him a sensible option for any team looking to fill one of those 3 spots and that just might be everybody and this will make it hard for Minnesota to sign him.  

 

And I think there are a couple of teams, who are ahead of the curve, who will look at Escobar, see that flexibility and go hard after him as a result because he can play multiple positions including OF and then plan to play him every day at multiple positions. (The Twins are not in this couple of teams group and I wish they were). 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

In the era of 3 man benches, your standard bench players almost have to be a backup catcher, backup infielder, and backup outfielder.  Slotting Mauer into a bench spot requires your backup cf, catcher, or ss into the starting lineup.  Kepler could start and backup Buxton in CF if needed.  Keeping Mauer would mean a bench of Mauer, backup IF (probably Adrianza), and backup catcher.  Adrianza or Garver would need to play in the outfield to give an outfielder a day off and force Cave back to AAA.  Seems like a pretty weak lineup.  That's the real cost of keeping Mauer with a 13 man pitching staff.  

 

Exactly

 

I'd love to have Mauer back but we can't have him back handling it like we always handle it.

 

Like Nicksaviking said... If Mauer is the starter and he hits .220 with 1 home run into June, you have screwed up 2019 even with a 1 year contract.

 

-They decided he was the every day 1B, they didn't sign anyone else for the role as a result. 

-Molitor will not bench the legend and they will have no options if they wanted to and it's 2018 all over again. 

-They can't trade him with 10/5 rights. 

-They will not cut him on a one year contract and end his career in Minnesota on a horrible note. 

-He can only play 1B. 

 

Like you said... If they sign Mauer as a backup 1B. 

 

They bring in a better 1B option.

They have to utilize a valuable 25 man roster to spot to hold a guy who can only play 1B when they have someone better at the position and this leaves them short at backup options and it's 2018 all over again. 

 

I think Mauer can still help us win games and I would welcome him back but only under one condition. The team changes it's approach and implements position flexibility to accommodate. Escobar at 3B, SS AND 2B, Sano at 3B and 1B, Mauer at 1B, Austin OF and 1B or Kepler OF and 1B. You got the DH spot to play with and let the best performers get the lions share of playing time. 

 

If they don't do that... we can't take him back. And that would be a shame.