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Article: Awkward Decisions


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That is a reasonable alternative to Mauer for sure, but it doesn't really change the composition or usage of our bench either. You still need a starting DH and a utility infielder, same as the Mauer plan.

 

I think the days of a regular, set DH are all but over. This year, there will probably be only 3 or 4 guys that will have a qualifying number of at bats as a DH. Increasingly common is using the DH to rest players from the field. That’s only going to increase as pitching staffs increase. I don’t think teams will even consider DH playing time going forward. They will let it take care of itself.

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If all parties will agree to the distinct possibility of a greatly diminished role, great, re-sign him.

See, I think Mauer in a greatly reduced role is actually *worse* than re-signing him to start. He is pretty useless on a modern MLB bench. Backup 1B/DH? He can pinch hit, probably only for a few guys, and most of the time you will need someone else to take over on defense.

 

Whereas, if he starts, depending on your roster configuration, he doesn't necessarily affect the size or composition of your bench.

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Can Cruz really expect a long term deal? I have to admit, I am intrigued by him...

 

His agent has been saying he wants at least two years.

 

He's an intriguing guy with an almost unparalleled career track - his best run of seasons has been ages 34-37. He'd certainly be a nice bat in the lineup.

 

Issues to me are that he's an everyday DH so there goes spelling Sano/Rosario or working in at bats for four OFers. He also has had steroid issues which leave him open to a big suspension and perhaps cloud his late career numbers. He also seems like he'll get at least $10 million per year so the cost is higher.

 

I wouldn't be averse but there's a lot to unpack with him.

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I think the days of a regular, set DH are all but over. This year, there will probably be only 3 or 4 guys that will have a qualifying number of at bats as a DH. Increasingly common is using the DH to rest players from the field. That’s only going to increase as pitching staffs increase. I don’t think teams will even consider DH playing time going forward. They will let it take care of itself.

Maybe not a full-time, everyday DH, but I think this is an exaggeration. I suspect most teams have a Mauer/Morrison type plan at DH, unless perhaps you are stacked with great position players (which the Twins most certainly are not).

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Unless the front office is convinced that both Mauer and Molitor (or another manager, please) would put Joe on the Bench if better options emerge, you can't bring Mauer back if you're planning on competing next year.

 

It's well within reason that Sano, or Austin, or Rooker or someone else will be both a better overall player AND need to play 1B next year. If the front office knows going into this offseason that Mauer's stature is going to prevent them from replacing him, they just can't re-sign him; it would be completely irresponsible.

 

If all parties will agree to the distinct possibility of a greatly diminished role, great, re-sign him. But let La Velle know too so the news is broken to the fans long before that decision has to be made.

 

I don't see the diminished role.

 

Brent Rooker isn't going to be ready until June 1 at the earliest. He's dipped a bit in AA this year. Nothing awful, he just needs a bit more seasoning as expected. 

 

Sano is 3B next year with a sprinkling of 1B and DH. I don't get the people eager to get him across the diamond. He'll end up there eventually but he's an adequate 3B and the Twins have no internal candidates at 3B. They're already replacing 2B so why have to replace 3B too when you have an acceptable guy there already?

 

Austin will get some time at 1B/DH. But I see him also getting some time as the 5th OF (behind Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Cave) and he's an ideal platoon with Mauer anyway.

 

Mauer isn't going to play 140 games but there's no reason he can't play a more front-loaded 125. There's not a lot better in free agency and Mauer means something to the team. Bring him back.

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I’ve heard lots of people say bring Mauer back in a “more limited role”. He’s going to play fewer than 90 games at first this year and he’s likely going to start fewer than 115 games total.

So, my awkward questions for anyone who cares to answer are

1) How much more limited would you expect his role to be in 2019 (and beyond)?

2) How much do you think that amount of playing time coupled with his subpar offensive production is worth?

3) Perhaps most importantly (and an issue no one advocating for his return has bothered to address), how do you fit essentially a half time player who plays only first base onto a roster that has 3 position players per game that don’t start?

Someone said in one of the Forsythe threads that a championship team doesn’t have Logan Forsythe on it. IMO, a championship team doesn’t have 36 year old Joe Mauer on it.

 

The first Twins championship team had 38-year-old Don Baylor on it for 20 games, with an OPS+ of 89, and everyone thought it was a great decision (except maybe whomever didn't make the playoff roster as a result).  I'd rather see Veteran Quiet Leader Joe Mauer all year.

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Nick, he is our starting center fielder and a platinum glove winner. He is playing in AAA and doing well. He is good to go.  Stop talking like he is a Faberge Egg.

Very good points overall, but even his own family is worried about his all out play style and seeming propensity for getting hurt.   They don't want to see him not play his fullest, but at the same time they are worried about Byron the man and his long term health (just for reference I know his wife's grandmother and she has stated that both her and Byron's wife are always worried about him and his play style).

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His agent has been saying he wants at least two years.

 

He's an intriguing guy with an almost unparalleled career track - his best run of seasons has been ages 34-37. He'd certainly be a nice bat in the lineup.

 

Issues to me are that he's an everyday DH so there goes spelling Sano/Rosario or working in at bats for four OFers. He also has had steroid issues which leave him open to a big suspension and perhaps cloud his late career numbers. He also seems like he'll get at least $10 million per year so the cost is higher.

 

I wouldn't be averse but there's a lot to unpack with him.

Cruz feels like a great low-risk add. The years and money almost certainly won't be enough to preclude cutting him or parking him on the DL if he struggles or gets hurt, but if he succeeds, he could be an ultra-reliable bat that could strengthen our everyday lineup or get flipped for prospects.

 

The suspension risk doesn't worry me at all. He forfeits his salary on a suspension, and as a DH he is relatively easier to replace.

 

It is a little tricky to fit him in as a DH only. But if we are planning on Sano and Austin on the team anyway, maybe not so tough. Or adding a 2B with some versatility.

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Maybe not a full-time, everyday DH, but I think this is an exaggeration. I suspect most teams have a Mauer/Morrison type plan at DH, unless perhaps you are stacked with great position players (which the Twins most certainly are not).

 

Yeah, this is interesting with Cruz. He's a 150 game+ DH and an amazing bat but he does preclude you from the rest day but still get to hit plan.

 

It'd be interesting to hear MLB player and staff talk about how that affects a team. Does it make you play guys in the field more and not get those days off? Does it contribute to continuity to have that same bat every day? Interesting topic with so few true DH's left.

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No not at all. But I'm not sure that any of those guys are an insane upgrade over Mauer. Smoak and Matt Adams are the best of the 1B-playing bunch to me and they're nice players but I'm not sure they move the needle that much. Especially if Mauer is considerably cheaper as an older vet not looking to cash in.

 

It's not about the upgrade, it's about the team not being able to fix a problem if Mauer is on the team. You can't fix 1B if he's re-signed because they'll have to play him there no matter what his production is. 

 

And free agents shouldn't have anything to do with it because there's still the strong possibility that internal options like Sano, Austin or Rooker will need the spot. But if they want a free agent, yes, sign Matt Adams over Mauer, he's a better hitter, can play OF and can be dealt or benched without anyone wringing their hands about it.

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Someone said in one of the Forsythe threads that a championship team doesn’t have Logan Forsythe on it. IMO, a championship team doesn’t have 36 year old Joe Mauer on it.

That was me. And while that is a literal reiteration of what I said, there was a broader point to that. While you can't have the best player in the league at every position, you still try to put the best player you can at every position. You make the upgrades you can and not fill your holes with adequacy. If Mauer, in the role he has, is the best option for the team, you sign him. If he's not, you let him go.

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The first Twins championship team had 38-year-old Don Baylor on it for 20 games, with an OPS+ of 89, and everyone thought it was a great decision (except maybe whomever didn't make the playoff roster as a result). I'd rather see Veteran Quiet Leader Joe Mauer all year.

Of course, the Twins had an unlimited roster in September of 1987, so carrying Baylor didn’t hinder anything. That won’t be the case in 2019 from late March through August.

 

btw, other than catchers Tom Nieto and Mark Salas, the only position players for the Twins in 1987 that didn’t make the postseason roster were Chris Pittaro and, wait for it, Billy Beane. Flip a coin as to which one might have made the playoff roster instead of Baylor I suppose. Unless the Twins went with 10 pitchers instead. That would likely have been Mike Smithson or possibly Allan Anderson.

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I don't see the diminished role.

 

Brent Rooker isn't going to be ready until June 1 at the earliest. He's dipped a bit in AA this year. Nothing awful, he just needs a bit more seasoning as expected. 

 

Sano is 3B next year with a sprinkling of 1B and DH. I don't get the people eager to get him across the diamond. He'll end up there eventually but he's an adequate 3B and the Twins have no internal candidates at 3B. They're already replacing 2B so why have to replace 3B too when you have an acceptable guy there already?

 

Austin will get some time at 1B/DH. But I see him also getting some time as the 5th OF (behind Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Cave) and he's an ideal platoon with Mauer anyway.

 

Mauer isn't going to play 140 games but there's no reason he can't play a more front-loaded 125. There's not a lot better in free agency and Mauer means something to the team. Bring him back.

 

This is all speculation though, what if paragraphs 1,2 and 4 aren't true? You're stuck with a subpar 1B you can't move out of the lineup.

 

What if Rooker is ready June 1? You think Joe is just going to go to the bench? I don't, I think Joe keeps his job and Rooker is more likely to bide his time in Rochester whether he's crushing or not all while TD burns down in frustration.

 

What if Sano can't play 3B, maybe because of futility, maybe just because of physical limitations? Then what, clog up the DH all year?

 

Mauer's played in 75% of the team's games this year. Why would we believe that he'd platoon with Austin or have reduced playing time?

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Yeah, this is interesting with Cruz. He's a 150 game+ DH and an amazing bat but he does preclude you from the rest day but still get to hit plan.

 

It'd be interesting to hear MLB player and staff talk about how that affects a team. Does it make you play guys in the field more and not get those days off? Does it contribute to continuity to have that same bat every day? Interesting topic with so few true DH's left.

I don't know if Cruz would completely preclude it. Aside from Mauer, the Twins have only had a handful of guys use the DH spot in that fashion, mostly since we punted on the season anyway. A benefit of a mostly young lineup. Cruz will need an occasional day off anyway.

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There is so little risk in keeping Buxton down from a FO stand point. But lose the extra year when the late bloomer reaches his potential and you'll be remembered as a the fool who traded 20 games of crap Buxton for a year of MVP.

Byron has no one to blame but his own dismal results for much of 3 wasted seasons for this situation. If he stayed healthy and hit, service time wouldn't be a concern. If he stays healthy and hits, he'll get a fat extension buying out arbitration.

Byron Buxton hasn't done enough to suggest that we owe him anything. I think playing him over Cave or even Grossman at this point would be unfair. What free agent would want to play for a team who's willing to replace you with a guy you're badly outperforming?

Cave deserves his shot, Grossman has earned his spot for this last month.

 

I think it's a major stretch to ever think he's going to be an mvp at this rate.  But i would guess there are still some that hold out hope that he's going to magically become Mike trout next season.  Might take tinkerbell and pixie dust to make it happen though.  

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This is all speculation though, what if paragraphs 1,2 and 4 aren't true? You're stuck with a subpar 1B you can't move out of the lineup.

 

What if Rooker is ready June 1? You think Joe is just going to go to the bench? I don't, I think Joe keeps his job and Rooker is more likely to bide his time in Rochester whether he's crushing or not all while TD burns down in frustration.

 

What if Sano can't play 3B, maybe because of futility, maybe just because of physical limitations? Then what, clog up the DH all year?

 

Mauer's played in 75% of the team's games this year. Why would we believe that he'd platoon with Austin or have reduced playing time?

 

Brett Rooker has a .812 OPS at AA for the year. That ain't bad but it doesn't scream "promote me directly to the majors". He's going to start next year in AAA and he will have to adjust again. I think June 1st is a good target date. When he is ready, there's room for him in the majors. He can play corner OF, 1B, and DH. No reason Joe blocks him. And let's flip it. You don't resign Joe and Rooker isn't ready until September 1st. Are you happy having Kennys Vargas at 1B? Adrianza playing every day at 3B while Sano plays 1B? The Twins need a 1B/DH type to being the year and Joe makes as much sense as anyone.

 

Number 2 is not speculation. Sano has shown nothing to say he's not going to be at 3B next year. If anything it's his bat sending him to the minors that is the problem (BTW, that would make Joe even more necessary).

 

Assuming Joe plays 20 more games this year he's going to end up with around 120 games. His three year average will be 130ish (and that includes games he pinch hits so it's really like 120). I think 120 is a fair guess for Joe. Gets you 42 games for Rooker. Couple that with the inevitable injuries and rest days and you have more than enough time for Rooker or whomever.

 

This thing isn't about internal candidates. It's about if you think there's a better outside option. If the Twins sign Donaldson and Cruz, yeah, Joe doesn't fit. But I don't know that that would be a wise use of funds and really doubt the Twins are going to commit to several long-term deals to guys north of 35. One short term deal to Joe makes way more sense.

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This is all speculation though, what if paragraphs 1,2 and 4 aren't true? You're stuck with a subpar 1B you can't move out of the lineup.

 

What if Rooker is ready June 1? You think Joe is just going to go to the bench? I don't, I think Joe keeps his job and Rooker is more likely to bide his time in Rochester whether he's crushing or not all while TD burns down in frustration.

 

What if Sano can't play 3B, maybe because of futility, maybe just because of physical limitations? Then what, clog up the DH all year?

 

Mauer's played in 75% of the team's games this year. Why would we believe that he'd platoon with Austin or have reduced playing time?

You want a placeholder at 1B? For Rooker? I think Rooker is an interesting prospect, but I am not sure he is quite at that level where you try to keep a short term path clear for him.

 

I think if you sign Mauer to a Morrison or Rondell White type contract, I think it could absolutely come with an expectation that his playing time could be reduced by June if he struggles or is hurt. I'd like to see the front office make that clear and achievable among the stakeholders rather than avoid it entirely out of fear.

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I don't know if Cruz would completely preclude it. Aside from Mauer, the Twins have only had a handful of guys use the DH spot in that fashion, mostly since we punted on the season anyway. A benefit of a mostly young lineup. Cruz will need an occasional day off anyway.

 

2014 to 2017 Cruz averaged 155 games. This year he missed two weeks with a sprained ankle but will still hit 140+ games. He's pretty much an everyday DH.

 

You're right that the Twins won't need it as much next year. Dozier was the guy who used that DH day the most and he's gone. But Rosario has done so on several occasions and it's probably not a bad idea for Sano and some other guys. 

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That's not a bad thing. Logan Morrison is likely the best option in that market. These are the other prominent names available.

 

Matt Adams

Lucas Duda

Nelson Cruz

Evan Gattis

Matt Holliday

 

None of those guys is perfect. Duda and Holliday seem washed up. Gattis is interesting since he also can catch (poorly) but he's logged 34 MLB innings at 1B. Matt Adams is a part-time player at this point. Nelson Cruz is interesting but he's also 38, can only DH, and is looking for a long-term deal.

 

It's not an inspiring market and Joe Mauer would seem to fit nicely in it and be a top option for the Twins, given his history with the team. You can get more pop from Adams and Gattis but the defense and OBP is significantly less.

 

That and the Twins have openings at 1B and DH and any move of Sano to one of those spots would just leave the Twins with holes at 2B and 3B. Austin plays some OF and will likely get some time at 1B/DH but the Twins are going to need someone even when Rooker comes up. Mauer is as good as anyone on that free agent market, especially for the Twins needs.

Maybe you're right, but on the Sano thing, finding infielders should not be an issue in this year's free agent crop. Sign Escobar to play 3B, sign Jed Lowrie to play 2B. Plenty of other options beyond those two, if they don't move the needle for you. 

 

On 1B/DH options, those names you listed are far from the only options available. There's always trades.

 

Anyway, my sincere hope is that Joe Mauer comes back, stays healthy and keeps up his solid play, but I'm worried that wouldn't happen. But if he does return, you've gotta make sure then to mold the roster around him correctly.

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It's not about the upgrade, it's about the team not being able to fix a problem if Mauer is on the team. You can't fix 1B if he's re-signed because they'll have to play him there no matter what his production is. 

 

And free agents shouldn't have anything to do with it because there's still the strong possibility that internal options like Sano, Austin or Rooker will need the spot. But if they want a free agent, yes, sign Matt Adams over Mauer, he's a better hitter, can play OF and can be dealt or benched without anyone wringing their hands about it.

 

How do you want to fix it?

 

Sano is a third baseman. What good does it do to "fix" 1B and then need to fill 3B? Especially when you make Sano significantly less valuable in the process.

 

Rooker has an .812 OPS in AA. He'll be fine but he is going to need at least a half season in AAA. This isn't Kent Hrbek or Joe Mauer blasting out of AA.

 

If you make Austin your 1B everyday, then you need a DH and have to go outside to get it. That means getting a 1B/DH type. That market is limited and Mauer is one of those guys you're looking at anyway.

 

Matt Adams is a reasonable option. So are Cruz and Smoak IMO. But you need to weigh the cost of those guys (no guarantee they want to sign in Minnesota or aren't more likely to stay where they've been) against the benefit of Joe. It comes down to the contract they all want to sign and the intangibles of keeping one of the best players in franchise history. I'd need to see a big upside to moving from Joe to Matt Adams and that would depend on the varying contract demands.

 

It's not a cut and dried thing, there are lots of variables.

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This thing isn't about internal candidates. It's about if you think there's a better outside option. If the Twins sign Donaldson and Cruz, yeah, Joe doesn't fit. But I don't know that that would be a wise use of funds and really doubt the Twins are going to commit to several long-term deals to guys north of 35. One short term deal to Joe makes way more sense.

 

No, no it is absolutely not about that. If you sign Joe, you're stuck with him at 1B, good or bad. If you sign, promote or move literally any other player to 1B, you are not stuck with that option because sentimentality and seniority won't be a factor.

 

 

 

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2014 to 2017 Cruz averaged 155 games. This year he missed two weeks with a sprained ankle but will still hit 140+ games. He's pretty much an everyday DH.

 

You're right that the Twins won't need it as much next year. Dozier was the guy who used that DH day the most and he's gone. But Rosario has done so on several occasions and it's probably not a bad idea for Sano and some other guys.

If Cruz is healthy and hitting, having him start 155 games would be a fantastic problem for the Twins to have! If that means Rosario and Sano each sit a few more days, I have no real issue with that -- neither one is a star right now anyway, with or without a few DH days.

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You want a placeholder at 1B? For Rooker? I think Rooker is an interesting prospect, but I am not sure he is quite at that level where you try to keep a short term path clear for him.

Joe's no-trade situation means that you can't plan the way you usually would: go with a passable veteran and then deal with any good news that comes from a prospect beating the door down, making him expendable.

 

He is No-trade in a couple of ways: his contractual status (which could conceivably be negotiated), but also the negative PR.

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Maybe you're right, but on the Sano thing, finding infielders should not be an issue in this year's free agent crop. Sign Escobar to play 3B, sign Jed Lowrie to play 2B. Plenty of other options beyond those two, if they don't move the needle for you. 

 

On 1B/DH options, those names you listed are far from the only options available. There's always trades.

 

Anyway, my sincere hope is that Joe Mauer comes back, stays healthy and keeps up his solid play, but I'm worried that wouldn't happen. But if he does return, you've gotta make sure then to mold the roster around him correctly.

 

There are trades, though trades cost prospects and have their own cost. Certainly should explore every avenue and I'm sure the Twins have and will.

 

I'm hesitant to sign two middle infielders that will require longer deals. Escobar will get three to four years and Lowrie likely gets at least two and maybe three depending on the market. With Araez, Lewis, and Gordon all relatively near the majors, you're setting up a backlog in the middle infield that I don't relish. I get you can always trade guys but that's never a given if the MLB guy is producing. I'd much prefer the Twins kick the can down the road a year with Mauer (or Adams or Smoak) at 1B, preserve Sano's value at 3B, and fill 2B with Escobar or someone like him. I think getting the extra year to see guys develop is worth it.

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No, no it is absolutely not about that. If you sign Joe, you're stuck with him at 1B, good or bad. If you sign, promote or move literally any other player to 1B, you are not stuck with that option because sentimentality and seniority won't be a factor.

 

Okay Nick. Set your dream Twins position players using only internal options (and Escobar at 2B because that's fun and we all know the Twins are going to need to fill that hole in FA). How are you doing it? Assume 13 pitchers?

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No, no it is absolutely not about that. If you sign Joe, you're stuck with him at 1B, good or bad. If you sign, promote or move literally any other player to 1B, you are not stuck with that option because sentimentality and seniority won't be a factor.

What you fear is actually a good test. If the manager can't reduce Mauer's role if his performance drops, then I don't want him as my manager. Same for my general manager. And if ownership gets involved to make him play, then I wouldn't want to work here as a manager or GM either.

 

I am encouraged that we've already seen Mauer play less, and go to the DL quicker, it seems, even while he is finishing out his mega-contract. I am not too worried about his performance leash if he comes back next year on a 1 year, $5 mil deal or whatever. (That said, I can also see other directions to take the position/lineup/roster.)

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I don't see the diminished role.

 

Brent Rooker isn't going to be ready until June 1 at the earliest. He's dipped a bit in AA this year. Nothing awful, he just needs a bit more seasoning as expected.

 

Sano is 3B next year with a sprinkling of 1B and DH. I don't get the people eager to get him across the diamond. He'll end up there eventually but he's an adequate 3B and the Twins have no internal candidates at 3B. They're already replacing 2B so why have to replace 3B too when you have an acceptable guy there already?

 

Austin will get some time at 1B/DH. But I see him also getting some time as the 5th OF (behind Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Cave) and he's an ideal platoon with Mauer anyway.

 

Mauer isn't going to play 140 games but there's no reason he can't play a more front-loaded 125. There's not a lot better in free agency and Mauer means something to the team. Bring him back.

He won’t start that many games this year. He only started 131 in 2017, easily his most productive season offensively in years. 126 starts in 2016, 154 in 2015, 118 in 2014, his first year as a non catcher. IMO 125 starts in 2019 is extremely unlikely. Even if he doesn’t land on the DL, which is pretty likely to happen given his age and injury history. 110 is a more realistic number I think. And therein lies the problem. You have a wasted roster spot for 50 games, almost 1/3 of the season. Some said he can pinch hit. Sure. The Twins have used a pinch hitter in less than half their games this year. And how many of those were “throw away” at bats in blow outs? The kind Mauer wouldn’t get anyway. Point being, the days of having a dangerous pinch hitter lurking are gone in the AL.

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Okay Nick. Set your dream Twins position players using only internal options (and Escobar at 2B because that's fun and we all know the Twins are going to need to fill that hole in FA). How are you doing it? Assume 13 pitchers?

 

Anybody. I don't care whom. Joe isn't a good offensive player anymore and he is an albatross if you can't bench him or release him.

 

If he and the manager agree to the possibility of a largely reduced role, and if the fans are made aware of it at the time of signing. Great, do it. Otherwise, run away.

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Joe's no-trade situation means that you can't plan the way you usually would: go with a passable veteran and then deal with any good news that comes from a prospect beating the door down, making him expendable.

 

He is No-trade in a couple of ways: his contractual status (which could conceivably be negotiated), but also the negative PR.

Meh. He's not tradeable before late July anyway, if at all, like most players on his expected contract.

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I'd sign Josh Donaldson for third, and Sano is my first baseman (hopefully for the next decade).

 

Right. And moving on from Mauer doesn't just open up the team's ability to sign a better player at 3B because you can move Sano over to 1B.

 

Without Mauer, it's a lot easier to give significant run to a legit right-handed fourth outfielder, with Kepler platooning at first with Austin when he's not in the OF.

 

Without Mauer, it's easier to bring in a new starting/platoon 2B AND sign Escobar or a similar player, because 3B reps open up if Sano can split time between 3B and 1B.

 

Without Mauer, it's easier to bring in a top tier catcher, let Castro and Garver share backup catching duties, and give Garver additional AB at 1B and OF when Kepler is at 1B.

 

You can disagree with the logistics of the above scenarios or come up with your own, these are just ideas off the top of my head, but Mauer doesn't provide enough offensive or defensive value to offset his lack of positional versatility. And that lack of versatility severely limits the team's ability to construct a roster that can consistently optimize matchups.

 

I'm tired of Twins rosters where the bench players are bench players because they provide significantly less value than the starters. I want the players on the bench to consistently provide value when a matchup dictates it, not just play on day games after night games or when a starter needs a break.

 

All of that said, I think Mauer's a G.O.A.T., not a scapegoat, but it's still time for the team to move on from him.

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