Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading the Front Office

[Mr. Brooks]

It's funny that you should mention that. I was about to go back and edit my statement. He is batting .227 - is it too much to expect a BA of 250? His career BA is 235. Is that really acceptable? His WAR is 2.4 and I am getting dizzy from this STAT - what does that mean - only that since we have won 61 games someone has to get credit for the wins. He averages 14 HR and 45 RBIs - is this what you expected when he came up as the big three - Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler. You might have seen him as an average or below batter, I had hopes of a Rosario take off.

 

Sorry, but Kepler has really fallen short of my hopes and if he represents the future we can expect to be mediocre for a long time.

 

Thanks for setting me off again!

For starters, it's more than a little misleading to include his 7 plate appearances in 2015 to calculate his season averages for counting stats like HR and RBI.

 

His batting average may disappoint you, but I'm just saying that is only one stat. Why focus so much on that one stat?

 

He's improved his OBP and SLG each year. He's taken 55 walks to just 81 strikeouts this year.

And defense matters too. He's a pretty good defensive outfielder, that is why someone might want to look at something that attempts to capture the whole picture, like WAR.

 

And that's fine that you personally had higher expectations, nothing wrong with that. I just wanted to establish that objectively, those expectations weren't shared industry wide. He's lived up to the expectations that his prospect and milb status would have projected.

[mikelink45]

 

For starters, it's more than a little misleading to include his 7 plate appearances in 2015 to calculate his season averages for counting stats like HR and RBI.

His batting average may disappoint you, but I'm just saying that is only one stat. Why focus so much on that one stat?

He's improved his OBP and SLG each year. He's taken 55 walks to just 81 strikeouts this year.
And defense matters too. He's a pretty good defensive outfielder, that is why someone might want to look at something that attempts to capture the whole picture, like WAR.

And that's fine that you personally had higher expectations, nothing wrong with that. I just wanted to establish that objectively, those expectations weren't shared industry wide. He's lived up to the expectations that his prospect and milb status would have projected.

Here is a fangraph comps study - I thought it might be good to bring in another opinion - https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-max-kepler-and-statcast-power-comps/

This was in 2016 - based on his stats not much has changed.  

 

These are the comparable batters in 2018 according to Baseball Reference:

Elijah Dukes (983.2)
Oswaldo Arcia (979.3)
Aaron Guiel (974.6)
Kyle Blanks (971.6)
Brant Alyea (970.3)
Damon Hollins (969.3)
Byron Browne (968.7)
Jorge Soler (968.7)
Ken Hunt (968.7)
Mike Kelly (967.7)

 

Again, this is not the list I anticipated when we brought Kepler up. 

 

[Cast of Thousands]

Interesting how a few arbitrary things out of anyone's control could impact an evaluation like this dramatically one way or the other.

 

The evaluations might look a lot different had Buxton, Sano, E. Santana, Morrison, and even Lance Lynn not all been virtually irrelevant this year for whatever reasons.

 

In many aspects, yes, the grade is probably Incomplete but I have to admit I like what I've seen for the most part.  I'm cautiously optimistic for the future!

[Mr. Brooks]

Here is a fangraph comps study - I thought it might be good to bring in another opinion - https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-max-kepler-and-statcast-power-comps/

This was in 2016 - based on his stats not much has changed.

 

These are the comparable batters in 2018 according to Baseball Reference:

Elijah Dukes (983.2)

Oswaldo Arcia (979.3)

Aaron Guiel (974.6)

Kyle Blanks (971.6)

Brant Alyea (970.3)

Damon Hollins (969.3)

Byron Browne (968.7)

Jorge Soler (968.7)

Ken Hunt (968.7)

Mike Kelly (967.7)

 

Again, this is not the list I anticipated when we brought Kepler up.

That table from bref is comparing his stats to career stats.

Comparable by age is the more relevant table.

They also are offensive stats only, they don't count for his really good defense.

 

And again, that's great if you expected more.

I was simply establishing that those weren't necessarily expectations shared by scouts or his prospect status.

[mikelink45]

 

That table from bref is comparing his stats to career stats.
Comparable by age is the more relevant table.
They also are offensive stats only, they don't count for his really good defense.

And again, that's great if you expected more.
I was simply establishing that those weren't necessarily expectations shared by scouts or his prospect status.

The issue is not what he has done, it is about what we get him to become.  I  think he has a lot more to contribute than what we have seen.

But I have enjoyed this exchange. 

[sftwinsfan]

You can put me in the group, misguided as it may be, that thinks Kepler has more to offer than a league average player.  Not that that's a bad thing as some prospects don't turn into anything.  But, he was the Southern League Player of the Year in 2015 at age 22 and a top 100 prospect.  With his swing and approach I think there's more there.  Frustrating to watch are the seemingly long stretches where offensively he drops into a black hole.  He's still only 25 and has some significant time in at the big league level, so I could see it clicking at a certain point.  I don't think it's crazy to see a reachable ceiling of .260-.280 20-25HR seasons with plus defense.  

[Twins33]

On a related note, I keep reading in different posts that the Twins and Falvine 'will have a boatload of money to spend on free agency'. 

 

I don't see it.

The Twins will have a boatload to spend, whether they ACTUALLY spend it is a different story (and extremely unlikely that they spend it all unless they're getting one of the big boys). I think most realize that.

 

A ton of money is coming off the books though. That's fact.

[jjswol]

You can not grade an organization on what you think will happen in the future, you can only grade on what has transpired. In baseball all that counts is wins and losses, no excuses for injuries, suspensions, bad luck, etc., every team has those. Bottom line, this years Minnesota Twins are a failure and deserve an F. 

[USAFChief]

I can’t be very impressed with an organization that finds itself far out of the race on Sept 1st, but who call up Matt Belisle, Chris Gimenez, and waiver wire fodder when rosters expand.

 

Fine job of adding talent, Misters Falvey and Levine.

[Squirrel]

 

I can’t be very impressed with an organization that finds itself far out of the race on Sept 1st, but who call up Matt Belisle, Chris Gimenez, and waiver wire fodder when rosters expand.

Fine job of adding talent, Misters Falvey and Levine.

Yep ... this is the part of the job that earned them a bad grade from me. Can't know yet what the trades and drafts will yield, though, so ... who knows. But this? Yeah ... why?

[Twodogs]

I think the central could be tougher next year. I believe the White Sox just swept the Yankees??9

[jimmer]

IMO, this organization had a lot of issues when the new FO took over.  I believe it's too early to grade them at all.  

[Riverbrian]

 

You can not grade an organization on what you think will happen in the future, you can only grade on what has transpired. In baseball all that counts is wins and losses, no excuses for injuries, suspensions, bad luck, etc., every team has those. Bottom line, this years Minnesota Twins are a failure and deserve an F. 

 

This is incredibly harsh and somewhat correct at the same time. 

 

I was ready to counter this until I thought about it. 

 

You are kinda right. 

[old nurse]

 

We may have different ideas of what a rebuild is, but this is how I see it, and classify this comparison made:

 

The Cubs burned it to the ground to rebuild if your comparing to the Twins, who maybe started a small campfire.

 

Through Free Agency, Trades, and Drafting, the Cubs added 54 WAR to their team that won the title in 2016. (source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-roster-construction-timeline-gfx-20161007-htmlstory.html#). This...isn't even in the realm of a comparison to where the Twins are now.

 

Epstein traded Ryan Dempster, Steve Clevenger, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Jason Hammel, and Jeff Samardzija to get back Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrietta, Pedro Strop, and Addison Russell. 

 

TR traded Denard Span, Ben Revere, Delmon Young, and Francisco Liriano to get back...Trevor May and Eduardo Escobar.

 

They were trying to stay relevant, not do a true rebuild.

 

If they were doing that:

 

Cuddyer should have been traded. Glen Perkins should have been traded. Oswaldo Arcia should have been traded. Jason Kubel should have been traded. Josh Willingham should have been traded a year sooner. Justin Morneau should have been traded a year sooner...............(I'm probably leaving out others too)

Cuddyer netted the team the draft picks that became JO Berrios and Chargois.  The trade would have had to been made by Smith, not Ryan  Morneau should have been traded in the Bill Smith era,  between the 2012, and the 2013 Morneau there would be little difference in value. Wilingham never had value except in fan fantasies, Kubel was a liability in the field. If there was a market for him after his breakout season it was again a Bill Smith era thing to do. By the time Ryan took over again, Kubel was well known  and down to a slightly above replacement level player. . Yup Arizona gave him a fat contract.  At that time fat contracts were easier for teams to give for a player than a prospect. The prospect turned out to be Luke Bard as the compensation pick.  That pick has not worked out, but a reasonably good  choice. Edwin Diaz would have been better, but every GM passed on him a time or two when they should not have.

 

Epstien got lucky. Right time, right place. Got a better deal than Boston did for worse pitchers. He still has the same job, Cherrington does not. Epstien dealing mediocrity having a great season  for great prospects was about the last time it happened.

Edited September 2, 2018 by old nurse

[old nurse]

 

You can not grade an organization on what you think will happen in the future, you can only grade on what has transpired. In baseball all that counts is wins and losses, no excuses for injuries, suspensions, bad luck, etc., every team has those. Bottom line, this years Minnesota Twins are a failure and deserve an F. 

Short term results are all that matters then? In Ryan's second go around most of his failure was due to trying to fix things with band aids. for the here and now. To look at the success of a team  rather than the organization as a whole is as poor of choice as could be. To expect them to pull elite players out of thin air is unreasonable. To have major league ready available players available for  CF, 3B SS, Ace pitcher as well as tanking 2b, and top set up man who was never injured gets injured is a bit much for any team to absorb.

[Danchat]

 

The Twins will have a boatload to spend, whether they ACTUALLY spend it is a different story (and extremely unlikely that they spend it all unless they're getting one of the big boys). I think most realize that.

A ton of money is coming off the books though. That's fact.

I'm not sure why we're worried about IF they'll spend it when the primary problem has been spending WISELY. They splurged last year, going over what most thought the cap was, and Reed, Morrison, and Odorizzi (not a FA but was traded due to $$$ problems for the Rays) have mostly failed. Signing Darvish would have ended as a travesty in year one of the deal. 

 

Spending money just to spend it isn't a strategy I like. Make wise deals if you can and save your cash if the deals out there are too risky. I want the team to win games, not spend money to appease the fans who can't stand the 'penny-pinching' Pohlads.

[Squirrel]

I'm not sure why we're worried about IF they'll spend it when the primary problem has been spending WISELY. They splurged last year, going over what most thought the cap was, and Reed, Morrison, and Odorizzi (not a FA but was traded due to $$$ problems for the Rays) have mostly failed. Signing Darvish would have ended as a travesty in year one of the deal. 

 

Spending money just to spend it isn't a strategy I like. Make wise deals if you can and save your cash if the deals out there are too risky. I want the team to win games, not spend money to appease the fans who can't stand the 'penny-pinching' Pohlads.

Don’t forget Duke, Rodney and Lynn. And they picked up Cave, too.

 

I don’t think it’s really fair to say their spending last off season was unwise; only in hindsight based on results. While I get that results are the end game, most of us were enthused with what was done in the off season. I gave that a pretty high grade, actually. I don’t think it was spending just to spend. If you call the spending that was done unwise, then I think you have to call not spending to outbid the Cubs on Darvish wise.

[Riverbrian]

 

Short term results are all that matters then? In Ryan's second go around most of his failure was due to trying to fix things with band aids. for the here and now. To look at the success of a team  rather than the organization as a whole is as poor of choice as could be. To expect them to pull elite players out of thin air is unreasonable. To have major league ready available players available for  CF, 3B SS, Ace pitcher as well as tanking 2b, and top set up man who was never injured gets injured is a bit much for any team to absorb.

 

I was going to type something similar but how do you grade on future results? How do we look at the organization as a whole? 

 

That leaves this year and it didn't work out. 

 

The Central was weak, the American League was weak. The Door was open. 

 

So yeah... I was going to respond the same way you did but then I thought about it. 

[Platoon]

i can see an incomplete grade. Falvine was left with a mess. I totally agree with the posters who view Ryans tenure as an effort to stay "middlin"! I think this FO will not use that as a long term approach. I also agree with the disappointment in who were the first call ups yesterday. Good grief. Now I know callups have to be on the 40 man, so the list is in essence only 15 players deep. Some of the players I would like to see get wet feet aren't on that list. Maybe the 40 man roster needs addressing. It certainly doesn't seem to include enough player that will improve the 25 man next year. What I do fear is that if Stewart and Gonsalves are representative of what we consider top MLB pitching prospects, what do those that we don't bring up look like? That said, I would rather lose while sorting out our MiLB depth, or lack thereof, than lose while providing a home for the Belisles, Wilsons, and Drakes of baseball. That would indicate a process. The aforementioned three simply make me think the FO is kowtowing to Molitors veteran preferences.

[mikelink45]

After looking at the September call ups I change my grade to an F as in What the F?

[Channing1964]

yeah, I'd say it's a bit too soon to grade them. What I like is that there seems to be an increased use of analytics and a much more decisive approach. Their drafts have been very good, and they've made some wholesale organizational changes on the development side. Problem is those things take time.

[Channing1964]

If I had to grade them on this year i would expel them from school. Im an O.G. Twins fan. The first game I saw ever saw was in 1970 at The Met vs the Senators.

Coming into 2018 I felt really good but before the season even started the course of events were ominous.

First the Polanco thing. I cant remember exact dates but wasnt he around everybody for awhile at Spring Training? Nobody noticed anything? Nobody reached out to him about this? After Santana, i never thought this would ever happen again to our organization.

Then everybody wanted to complain about Lynn. In my opinion everyone should have known those pitchers that basically got locked out would start slower. I thought it was a great move. Then again i am a fan of proven winners and players that come in from winning organizations a la Lynn, Duke, Rodney etc.

This is kind if old news but then i learned how Derek Shelton came to be the bench coach. I researched his career and needless to say i was not amused nor am i a Derek Shelton fan. If he is being groomed to replace Molitor i will absolutely be mad as hell.

Buxton has something that is prolly going to work out as he reaches a level of maturity that all young men reach at different stages of their lives. We all hope it is sooner rather than later but either way patience will be the key. Messing with his service time and publicly admitting it is one of the most monumental boneheaded moves i have ever seen in my 54 years. How he reacts and who he takes advice from will tell all of us what kind of Twin he either will or won't become.

Oh jeeze then there was not informing the Field Manager about the Escobar trade. This almost stinks horribly like a childish slap in the face to show Molitor who was calling the shots. I felt so bad when I saw the look on Molitor's face as he found out about it on the TV in the media room at Fenway Park. A lot of my people let me know that they never thought they'd see the Minnesota Twins pull such a classless and bush leage stunt like that. i have to agree. It saddened and angered me.

The trading frenzy, when you look at it realistically was a fire sale reminiscent of the dismantling if the '03 Marlins. Out of all those distant prospects and suspects not one of them play any of the positions that the big league club needs desperately such as catcher, middle infielder, closer,team leaders, heart and soul etc, etc,etc.

Somebody and again I dont know who, has to be blamed for the whole Miguel Sano fiasco. Im thrilled that he's doing better , but Really? How did he make it through six weeks of Spring Training and nobody saw this? No wonder the kid is a borderline basket case. Instead of leaving them in Fort Myers you're gonna send him ALL THE WAY DOWN IN JUNE? I get it that it needed to be done. What I don't get is that neither one of our famous dynamic duo could notice this in March rather than June. What a great show of confidence for our starting(and only) third baseman.

I dont know if anyone saw the 5-7 minute video of Dakota Chalmers after he was acquired for Fernando. I did. He is pitching like an inning in low A ball. I could still rake off him. Im not sure what happened there but i assure Billy Beane fell out of his chair laughing at the dynamic dolts after he hung up that phone call.

I am sure the worst is yet to come. The classless way they have treated the coaches, players, and fans is definitely going to hurt them as they go out and spend Pohlads money. The word travels fast around the league and the MLBPA.

I wish i could just go to sleep and wake up finding out it was all a bad dream. I would give anything to see what would have happened if we could have kept the core group intact. If I were a season ticket holder i would be soooo Royally Pi$$ed off i would burn the rest of my 2018 stubs.

Never in my 48 years as a Twins fan have I felt this way. We quit because we hired 2 guys away from our enemies that have no grasp of what tradition and resolve we have as a fan base. The Twins Way is a good place for any team to follow. I have never Ever seen our team throw a season away when there was even one fan left that still Believed. Shutting down a season at the 100 game mark is not what we do around here.

For these reasons i would not grade them i would kick them off the campus and take away their keys.

Edited September 3, 2018 by Channing1964

[Highabove]

Nick Anderson and Jake Reed will not be called up but Matt Belisle continues to hold a roster spot. Please someone tell me it's all about the future. I will wait for my answer.

Edited September 4, 2018 by Highabove

[Vanimal46]

Nick Anderson and Jake Reed will not be called up but Matt Belisle continues to hold a roster spot. Please someone tell me it's all about the future. I will wait for my answer.

It is about the future. Those 3 won't be a part of it very soon.

[twinfan]

I give the front office a C-. I do not fault them for the deals - though I thought they should have kept Pressley and Escobar (and maybe Lynn)- but I don't believe we have received what we could have in return. I see other teams that have traded less for more than we received. Just my opinion.