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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading the Front Office


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And the fact that we hadn't prepared for a contingency of not having him in the lineup and patrolling center field made things worse.

I thought the minor-league deal for Jake Cave and the signing of Ryan LaMarre was this contingency. Not a starter - Byron Buxton was still Plan A, and either starter on the corner could be tapped for CF duty in a pinch. But "if Buxton goes down", these two were the plan. Something stronger would be akin to having four starting outfielders on the 40-man; hard to do.

 

The jury's out on the front office's drafts, and so I'd combine a B for that with a C- for how they've handled the 40-man overall - if their offseason moves had worked out, it would be better, but process only goes so far and results are results.. Like some others, a Gentlemen's C overall, at this still-early stage. I have yet to see moves that make me say, "wow, something under the hood such as their Analytics team is really strong" - in fact their sifting through the Rule-5 dustbin has been embarrasingly bad.

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I don't think the Twins spend much on free agency this coming year. They will be looking for utility type player where they can fill the holes for second and third and they will be looking for veteran reliever to spot into the bull pen. I would think they will also might sign Mauer but I thinks that's still a big if. I think most people think were  going to compete next year but here's food for thought they may just tear down whole thing again and start over. Meaning if Buxton and Sano have repeat of this year I could see them trading away this core and look to rebuild from scratch with their people but I would say this will be hard one for fans to swallow especially after almost 10 years of loosing. But there are to many ifs for this team to be winner right now.

 

Buxton and Sano have minimal trade value now. The only players the Twins could look to sell would be Berrios, Rosario and Gibson. I don't see the Twins doing that. And it hasn't been 10 years of losing. They made the playoffs. Last year.

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I thought the minor-league deal for Jake Cave and the signing of Ryan LaMarre was this contingency. Not a starter - Byron Buxton was still Plan A, and either starter on the corner could be tapped for CF duty in a pinch. But "if Buxton goes down", these two were the plan. Something stronger would be akin to having four starting outfielders on the 40-man; hard to do.

 

The jury's out on the front office's drafts, and so I'd combine a B for that with a C- for how they've handled the 40-man overall. Like some others, a Gentlemen's C overall, at this still-early stage. I have yet to see moves that make me say, "wow, something under the hood such as their Analytics team is really cooking."

I agree with Cave being a decent 4th outfielder who can play center field in a pinch. However, if Lamarre and Cave were considered viable options, why did they have Buxton play through it? It just seemed like they were having him play because they had no other choice. I believe it hurt the team, and hurt Buxton to do that. Part of having a Plan B is that you use it when Plan A isn't working or isn't available.

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I am happy with both of their drafts = A. I am happy with their trades for the prospects after missing on Ohteni= A. I was happy with both offseasons = A-. I was highly disappointed the team didnt do anything to plug a few holes early in the season when the shiznitt hit the fan but before we fell too far back. We had Lynn, Escobar, and Ehire. We needed a 1B/DH, and a C, and maybe an OF. We could have aquired a few of these pieces at a low to medium cost = F COWARDS... you should get a refund on your season tickets last May when this happened as it was obvious then that the front office gave up on the season before the quarter point. Mid season trades for prospects = C- no teams top 10 prospects and appeared to start quitting on 2019 too with Pressley trade. Nice pick up of Cave in spring training... overall they overall they get a C ....quitting on a season before the quarter point is a fireable offense and should never happen again. Honestly if i spent 130 million off your recommendations, i would prefer to throw a few million more in season to get a return on my investment. It would have helped fan interest.... On the future/ prospect side they get an A.

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Twins Daily Contributor

 

I'd love to hear your argument. Note, circa 2009, BA did a long article by their standards on how a mid-market team rebuilds. It's pretty much what TR did. Tear down, play for draft choices, don't encumber yourself with long term commitments, etc. 

 

We may have different ideas of what a rebuild is, but this is how I see it, and classify this comparison made:

 

The Cubs burned it to the ground to rebuild if your comparing to the Twins, who maybe started a small campfire.

 

Through Free Agency, Trades, and Drafting, the Cubs added 54 WAR to their team that won the title in 2016. (source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-roster-construction-timeline-gfx-20161007-htmlstory.html#). This...isn't even in the realm of a comparison to where the Twins are now.

 

Epstein traded Ryan Dempster, Steve Clevenger, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Jason Hammel, and Jeff Samardzija to get back Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrietta, Pedro Strop, and Addison Russell. 

 

TR traded Denard Span, Ben Revere, Delmon Young, and Francisco Liriano to get back...Trevor May and Eduardo Escobar.

 

They were trying to stay relevant, not do a true rebuild.

 

If they were doing that:

 

Cuddyer should have been traded. Glen Perkins should have been traded. Oswaldo Arcia should have been traded. Jason Kubel should have been traded. Josh Willingham should have been traded a year sooner. Justin Morneau should have been traded a year sooner...............(I'm probably leaving out others too)

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Signing past their prime veterans to fill in a veteran roster mostly void of young talent while languishing at the bottom of a bad division and not trading away the few assets that they do have for most of a decade does not constitute a rebuild in my view. It may fit yours, but it doesn't fit mine.

 

Also exactly this.

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D - I am unimpressed and those who read my posts know I am a critic.  They had a wildcard team and almost blew it because it shocked them.  They were in the sell mode and suddenly the team was doing so well something needed to be done.  

 

These are not men without MLB experience.  They hired a ton of coaches and so far I am unable to see what Pickler, Rowson, Alston and numerous others have done to help Molitor or change the culture.

 

I was a naysayer about free agents and I remain a naysayer.  I wanted to give the young players a chance instead of the mercenaries.  Can anyone tell me that bringing Kennys would not have at least matched Morrison and I am not even a Vargas fan.

 

Buxton and Sano needed a reset, why did it take so long to see it?

 

The BP is below league standards so we sign Belisle.  Give me a break.  I was against Darvish - check it out - and than god we did not succeed or imagine where we would be.

 

The minor league BP prospects are as questionable as ever, shouldn't we have figured that out by now?  

 

Since Kepler continues to under produce will we have him follow Buxton and Sano for a reset?  

 

We lost Castro and filled in with Wilson - does anyone see that as a positive?

 

Escobar was our shining light and he is gone - can we get him back?

 

No resolution on Mauer leaves us with a blocking decision before we take new steps.

 

We have some really good players in the minors - we said the same thing when TR left.  How do we make them major leaguers>

 

No I do not see a plan, a pattern, a success to build on.  Let me be wrong, let the team surge next year.  I think Romero, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson can do it.  And hopefully we will start to see some hitters come up and contribute, but do not tell me that they are better than TR.  I was not a TR fan, but more than changing nametags is needed to improve.

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Compared to Terry Ryan they get a AAA+. I just can't disagree with much that they've done. They evaluate the team better and appear to be trying to build a team that can win a World Series. Ryan just seemed happy with attempting to be a middle of the road team, even when it was obvious a full rebuild was necessary or they were close to being a championship club. Not to mention he didn't do much with a lot of fairly high draft picks ( not as high as the cubs and astros who were actually trying to rebuild).

I would like them to choose their own manager. It just doesn't seem like Molitor sees things the same way as the front office. Could be wrong about that though.

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D - I am unimpressed and those who read my posts know I am a critic. They had a wildcard team and almost blew it because it shocked them. They were in the sell mode and suddenly the team was doing so well something needed to be done.

 

These are not men without MLB experience. They hired a ton of coaches and so far I am unable to see what Pickler, Rowson, Alston and numerous others have done to help Molitor or change the culture.

 

I was a naysayer about free agents and I remain a naysayer. I wanted to give the young players a chance instead of the mercenaries. Can anyone tell me that bringing Kennys would not have at least matched Morrison and I am not even a Vargas fan.

 

Buxton and Sano needed a reset, why did it take so long to see it?

 

The BP is below league standards so we sign Belisle. Give me a break. I was against Darvish - check it out - and than god we did not succeed or imagine where we would be.

 

The minor league BP prospects are as questionable as ever, shouldn't we have figured that out by now?

 

Since Kepler continues to under produce will we have him follow Buxton and Sano for a reset?

 

We lost Castro and filled in with Wilson - does anyone see that as a positive?

 

Escobar was our shining light and he is gone - can we get him back?

 

No resolution on Mauer leaves us with a blocking decision before we take new steps.

 

We have some really good players in the minors - we said the same thing when TR left. How do we make them major leaguers>

 

No I do not see a plan, a pattern, a success to build on. Let me be wrong, let the team surge next year. I think Romero, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson can do it. And hopefully we will start to see some hitters come up and contribute, but do not tell me that they are better than TR. I was not a TR fan, but more than changing nametags is needed to improve.

 

Kepler has 2.5 bWAR. Sano and Buxton are both in negative territory.

 

The situations aren’t remotely comparable.

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I think that it is complicated, and the grade I give the FO right now is I (Incomplete).  Why?

 

I believe that the came in with a 5 year plan to turn a pathetic team into a contender, and the 2017 unexpected quasi-success aberration threw them off a bit (more on this later).  I will wait the 5 years for a grade other than incomplete.  

That said:

 

Things that this FO did well:

 

  • Take a $ hit to get rid of players like Hughes
  • DL people right away to have 25 able bodies with the team instead of 21 with a bunch of day-to-days
  • Trade people in season and get something before they leave for nothing
  • Go out and be a player in high level FAs
  • Take risks and cut the cord when they don't
  • Much better in season roster management; the above, plus rotating arms via the minors
  • Go out and get players in the off-season (but, see below)
  • Promote players even when not ready (but, see below)

 

Things that this FO did not do well:

 

  • Kept too much of Ryan's staff around, including proven disappointments like the head of the player personnel and the head of the draft, and even the head of player development; areas the Twins have proven to be behind the rest of the league
  • Likely misguided by 2017 but keeping Santana and Dozier in the off-season was a disappointment
  • Going half ass with pitching instead of going for proven arms when they did not get what they wanted in FA; again likely misguided by 2017 and/or an effort to put butts on seats.  Their closer is a 7th inning pitcher in a competitive team, their star FA starter took 2 months to throw strikes, and their opening day trade is a 5 in a competitive team on a good day (but they were all inexpensive)
  • Expose non-ready players with major flaws (like Gonsalves) thus potentially dropping their value in a trade.

Yet to see:

 

  • The ability to trade prospects to fill holes, such as an ace or all star level closer.
  • Cutting ties with Mauer for baseball reasons vs re-signing him for " PR reasons

 

Edited by Thrylos
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<p>

 

I think that it is complicated, and the grade I give the FO right now is I (Incomplete). Why?

 

I believe that the came in with a 5 year plan to turn a pathetic team into a contender, and the 2017 unexpected quasi-success aberration threw them off a bit (more on this later). I will wait the 5 years for a grade other than incomplete.

That said:

 

Things that this FO did well:

 

  • Take a $ hit to get rid of players like Hughes
  • DL people right away to have 25 able bodies with the team instead of 21 with a bunch of day-to-days
  • Trade people in season and get something before they leave for nothing
  • Go out and be a player in high level FAs
  • Take risks and cut the cord when they don't
  • Much better in season roster management; the above, plus rotating arms via the minors
  • Go out and get players in the off-season (but, see below)
  • Promote players even when not ready (but, see below)

Things that this FO did not do well:

  • Kept too much of Ryan's staff around, including proven disappointments like the head of the player personnel and the head of the draft, and even the head of player development; areas the Twins have proven to be behind the rest of the league
  • Likely misguided by 2017 but keeping Santana and Dozier in the off-season was a disappointment
  • Going half ass with pitching instead of going for proven arms when they did not get what they wanted in FA; again likely misguided by 2017 and/or an effort to put butts on seats. Their closer is a 7th inning pitcher in a competitive team, their star FA starter took 2 months to throw strikes, and their opening day trade is a 5 in a competitive team on a good day (but they were all inexpensive)
  • Expose non-ready players with major flaws (like Gonsalves) thus potentially dropping their value in a trade.
Yet to see:

  • The ability to trade prospects to fill holes, such as an ace or all star level closer.

Since you mention having a 25 man roster, I think a definite thing to add to the not well category is not cutting bait on Hughes and Kinley fast enough so that there were 25 actual players on the roster. I get that cutting Hughes is likely a decision that Pohlad had to approve, but I doubt Kinley was. Kinley was only used 4 times but was on the roster all of April.

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Cuddyer should have been traded. Glen Perkins should have been traded. Oswaldo Arcia should have been traded. Jason Kubel should have been traded. Josh Willingham should have been traded a year sooner. Justin Morneau should have been traded a year sooner...............(I'm probably leaving out others too)

Cuddyer brought back Berrios as a comp pick. Kubel... Luke Bard, who hasn't turned out but he was a pretty high pick.

 

Perkins is about the only guy in that list who would have brought back anything. I looked into it awhile back and found Soria was a decent comp, and he did return Corey Knebel. But we didn't have an asset to land an Addison Russell or Anthony Rizzo, and I think Arrieta and Hendricks might represent more coaching/development achievements than trade achievements (although both aspects are involved).

 

Should we have gotten more from Meyer and May? Or targeted different players in trade?

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2017 was a couple of games better than 2015. Molitor being Manager of the Year for that is a joke. So they inherited around a .500 team really, and now will be considerably worse than last year. 

 

What really matters? Results. The rest is hopes and dreams and smoke and no fire. I can't live there. Regardless of players doing what is expected or not, the buck stops with the controller. This team has gotten worse in the 2 years of control. Their "great drafts" and trades and restructuring of coaches and managers, have produced, overall in the farm, an unimpressive set of team records. Will the great drafts really produce where it matters? Time will tell. They will be graded appropriately.

 

Results.

Seasons still happen, whether you want to grade them or not.

Seasons are complete.

We all live through them.

 

Baseball doesn't get incompletes, even if one feels like they should have mercy.

This season's grade?

Solid D.

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yeah, I'd say it's a bit too soon to grade them. What I like is that there seems to be an increased use of analytics and a much more decisive approach. Their drafts have been very good, and they've made some wholesale organizational changes on the development side.  Problem is those things take time. 

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If this is the level you expected for Kepler, you had lower expectations than I did. 

 

He's a 25 year-old producing a league average or better WAR figure for the third year now.

 

Were you expecting perennial all-star out of the gate?

 

Compared to Buxton/Sano expectations-to-production, he's blowing both of them out of the water, combined.

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Obviously it should be incomplete at this point, but if I had to give a grade I'd go with a straight C.  Their first draft is looking pretty good right now, but still very early.  This year's draft too early to tell.  I like they've been a little more aggressive in free agency, although it didn't pan out.  They've put some resources into the organization which will hopefully produce some results down the road.

 

On the negative side, their skills at identifying talent seem to be overstated as they've let some players go (JT Chargois, Derek Rodriguez) that wouldn't look too bad right now on the roster.  I really didn't like selling the draft pick to San Diego.  Nearly 2 minor league seasons in and player development still seems to be lacking, especially the pitchers don't seem at all prepared to pitch at the MLB level.  Also I'd rather give some younger relief pitchers a shot that are sitting in AAA than some of the guys they've picked up off the scrap heap.  

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TR did a mighty big disservice to this team for many years before 2011. Also never tearing it down after 2011. Like many said he held the franchise back by trying to field a competitive team every year when a full on rebuild was staring him in the face. Never made any moves to jump to one side or the other. Build a winner or rebuild. Instead he stood in the middle of the road and never committed to one side or the other in order to put as many fans in the seats as possible. He chose to keep feeding an alcoholic drinks in hopes he would quit instead of just sending him to rehab. There are many analogies to describe this but the fact is he kept doing the same thing hoping for different results every year. Anyone that could have been traded should have. No questions. Short term pain for long term gain. Who did that? Houston. Chicago. Who ironically have both won a World Series since then. Where are the Twins? Still wondering when they will make a legitimate playoff appearance and still wondering if next year is the year. That year should have been many ago now. There is no excuse. Why are we where we are. TR and his staff. I would also throw the pohlads in there for not having the balls to commit either.

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I'll echo there are a lot of great comments and points of view here even those I don't necessarily agree with. And I'm going to cop out on a final grade and just say "incomplete" but optimistic, waiting for the final pages of their thesis to be turned in.

 

They were brought in to re-build the culture and the system. (Note: this does not have to include an over night razing of everything and everyone). If you felt a pair of off season's would accomplish their version of a re-build, re-tool or re-construction, then I would say you were at least overly optimistic, if not a bit naive.

 

My incomplete is an overview of what I have seen so far:

 

LIKE:

 

They made "meh" low-key additions for 2017 like Giminez and Belisle and even Castro, instead of looking for quick fixes or a scorched earth philosophy. Those moves worked quite well.

 

BOTH Garcia trades made sense last season, though they were made for different reasons, even so close together. Not trading Dozier initially made sense for what it appears was offered. However the players acquired at this year's trading deadline turn out, the fact that they acted definitively to increase talent and options for pending FA was decisive and much more aggressive than we have seen in a very long time.

 

I was pleased with the FA moves, and Odorizzi trade, this past off season. Nothing long term. Nothing to block young talent. All smart moves, mostly all heralded, but simply didn't turn out. I am just not going to hold them accountable for injuries and poor showings. They took an aggressive shot!

 

I like the way the juggled the 25 man last season and rode the Rochester shuttle to keep the team as complete and fresh as they could.

 

I really like both of their drafts so far. I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how good the 2018 early returns look thus far. (Early I know). And I think it's a bit disingenuous to say the 2017 draft should have been good when you have the 1st pick over all. You still have to make the right choice and choices. There was no Strasburger or Harper as the clear cut, OMG, #1 choice.

 

I like that they seem to be a bit more aggressive in milb promotions. I love they weren't conservative with Romero, and were maybe too aggressive with Littell, but weren't afraid.

 

There are other points I like, including the move for Cave just before the season began, but this covers the majority.

 

DISLIKE:

 

I think the re-set of Sano was later than it should have been. In fact, I think they should have done a better job of monitoring him during the off season.

 

I don't think they handled Buxton's toe injury well at all.

 

For as well as they handled the 25 man last season, and the mentioned Rochester express, I don't think they have done a very good job this season. Not only have I felt some guys got yanked back down too early, at times, but I also feel they have been way too slow, especially at this point in the season, to look at Reed, Curtiss and others vs Belisle and Drake. (Note: I can ALMOST understand Drake as a "what if" flier). My next THREE points work in conjunction with this one.

 

Each unto themselves, I can understand not protecting Bard, Chargois, Burdi and Rodriguez. There are legitimate reasons to not protect each and everyone of those guys! But ALL of them? (But too be fair, could ANYONE actually see Rodriguez having the decent/solid year he's had?)

 

I don't like the way they've tried to "out smart" everyone else in the rule 5 each of the last two off seasons. Please stop!

 

I very much dislike the way the built the Rochester team this year. I get you felt there were some guys, like Gordon and Wade, for example, that you wanted to take some time with. And the real depth of the system was always going to be in the lower part of the system. But with the financial flexibility granted to them...I'd say the proof in that is the FA moves made...you couldn't find a few AAAA type guys to put together a decent roster with opportunities awaiting if someone got hurt, under performed, etc? Sano was a concern of mine, and I voiced that before the season began. I lamented letting Goodrum walk, though maybe he saw greener pastures anyway. But there wasn't a Brian Buscher, SOMEWHERE to be had? Was Wilson, not being mean, truly the best and only catching option available? For all the angst written about Tyner and Florimon being given real ML time in the past, wouldn't a couple of guys like them have improved the Rochester team and provided at least competent call up options?

 

In a nutshell, as I'm reading the thesis on "how to re-tool the Twins to a competitive and sustainable franchise" I'm mostly impressed and about ready to hand out a positive grade. But this next off season will move my grade up, or down. And to be precise, my grade won't be determined by a sudden FA flurry the likes of which we have never seen. Nor will it be a sudden trade explosion involving the ML roster and half the top 10 prospects in the system. It will involve improving what is on hand, and setting those players up for success. (The absolute most talented players on the roster will still be 26 or younger in 2019). It will include a smart FA signing or two. It will be about a smart trade, or two.

 

My final grade doesn't involve a legitimate run at the WS next season. (Though that would be wonderful!l. It's about building on what you have, making it better, and making smart decisions to augment what you have...as well as what is coming...without a "damn the torpedoes" trap for a short term fix.

 

In any sport, I think most can agree, year 3 is where your stamp should start showing.

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$43 million comes off the books - Mauer, Erv, and LoMo. In 2019 they have $32.5 million in committed dollars so far (Pineda, Castro, Reed)

I don't recall a time when I paid attention to payroll where the Twins had this much flexibility.

I don't expect them to match this year's payroll total, but even at a conservative $100 million payroll they have $30-40 million to play with this winter.

That doesn't mean they have to spend it. 

 

I could see them possibly spending the money on extensions to Rosario, Berrios, Kepler, etc. 

 

We will see, the free agent market last year was funky and I don't see it changing, if it was me I'd have a wait and see attitude, see if some of the huge contracts will come down.  The high end free agents like Harper and Machado will get paid but it will be interesting to see about the rest of the free agents.

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Unless they are wildly front-loaded, those extensions wouldn't impact 2019 payroll much at all.

You're probably correct but I just threw that in there to placate some of the TD readers that willl be outraged when the Twins don't spend that 30-40 millions dollars, at least they've spent it long-term on extentions.

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If this is the level you expected for Kepler, you had lower expectations than I did.

League average to above average is pretty much what most every scouting report projected his reasonable ceiling to be.

 

I mean, I can certainly understand being hopeful that he'd outshine his projections. But that's a far cry from suggesting he should be demoted just because he's "only" a league average player.

 

Getting league average production, for the league minimum, from a 16 year old international signing from Germany, who was never an elite prospect? That's a huge win for the Twins scouting and development.

We need more success stories like this from that department, not less.

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League average to above average is pretty much what most every scouting report projected his reasonable ceiling to be.

I mean, I can certainly understand being hopeful that he'd outshine his projections. But that's a far cry from suggesting he should be demoted just because he's "only" a league average player.

Getting league average production, for the league minimum, from a 16 year old international signing from Germany, who was never an elite prospect? That's a huge win for the Twins scouting and development.
We need more success stories like this from that department, not less.

Actually I was not suggesting that he be sent down, but I do expect him to hit more than 235 and the only solution we have had for players who do not reach their goals and expectations is to send them down.  I still think that Kepler has plateaued way too early and something needs to be done, but who will help him move forward.  I have not seen any indication that this team knows how to do it. 

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Actually I was not suggesting that he be sent down, but I do expect him to hit more than 235 and the only solution we have had for players who do not reach their goals and expectations is to send them down. I still think that Kepler has plateaued way too early and something needs to be done, but who will help him move forward. I have not seen any indication that this team knows how to do it.

What about all the other things a player brings to the table aside from batting average?

 

Overall, he's a slightly above average MLB player. Nobody realistically projected him to be better than that. If he's failing to meet your expectations, then I'd suggest your expectations were too high.

Not every player will become a star. That doesn't make them a disappointment. Kepler's projected ceiling was a complimentary player to the stars that were supposed to be Buxton and Sano. Kepler has lived up to that expectation.

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What about all the other things a player brings to the table aside from batting average?

Overall, he's a slightly above average MLB player. Nobody realistically projected him to be better than that. If he's failing to meet your expectations, then I'd suggest your expectations were too high.
Not every player will become a star. That doesn't make them a disappointment. Kepler's projected ceiling was a complimentary player to the stars that were supposed to be Buxton and Sano. Kepler has lived up to that expectation.

It's funny that you should mention that.  I was about to go back and edit my statement.  He is batting .227 - is it too much to expect a BA of 250?  His career BA is 235.  Is that really acceptable?  His WAR is 2.4 and I am getting dizzy from this STAT - what does that mean - only that since we have won 61 games someone has to get credit for the wins.  He averages 14 HR and 45 RBIs - is this what you expected when he came up as the big three - Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler.  You might have seen him as an average or below batter, I had hopes of a Rosario take off.

 

Sorry, but Kepler has really fallen short of my hopes and if he represents the future we can expect to be mediocre for a long time.

 

Thanks for setting me off again!

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