So ... how much do you think Kyle Gibson will make in his last year of arbitration? How about free agency?

 

Would you extend Kyle Gibson? If NO, why not? Even if you would not, what do you think an extension would look like?

 

Kyle is going to be 30 next year. I think I would like to extend him this off-season for next year + 2 or 3 years. My objective is to extend team control while guranteeing less money and fewer/younger years than signing him as a free agent. I would like to modestly front load the contract meaning that I would pay more than the next year's expected arbitration to incentivize training and to use some of the team's excess room under their artificial salary cap in 2019, leaving more room in later years. I am still talking about paying less in 2019 than in later years.

Gibby's making $4.5 million this season. Is it accurate to double that for 2019?

 

I would not sign him to an extension and play things out. It's possible he can sustain this performance through his mid-30s like Charlie Morton. I'd rather see it first and pay a higher price later than be stuck with a dud contract.

I would just ride it out.

If he accepts a QO, you get his next 2 years, without having to pay for his decline years.

If he doesn't, you get a draft pick.

 

I would just ride it out.
If he accepts a QO, you get his next 2 years, without having to pay for his decline years.
If he doesn't, you get a draft pick.

 

This.

 

So ... how much do you think Kyle Gibson will make in his last year of arbitration? How about free agency?

 

Would you extend Kyle Gibson? If NO, why not? Even if you would not, what do you think an extension would look like?

 

Kyle is going to be 30 next year. I think I would like to extend him this off-season for next year + 2 or 3 years. My objective is to extend team control while guranteeing less money and fewer/younger years than signing him as a free agent. I would like to modestly front load the contract meaning that I would pay more than the next year's expected arbitration to incentivize training and to use some of the team's excess room under their artificial salary cap in 2019, leaving more room in later years. I am still talking about paying less in 2019 than in later years.

Kyle is going to be 31, not 30.  He's 30 right now and his Bday is in October.

 

I'm in the minority, but after his 2016 and 2017, I'd be leery of believing he has turned the corner.  

 

Having said that, I'd guess the Twins will give him 4/52

See if he bites on something in the 2/20-3/35 range and also try to tack on a performance year/500,000 buyout for a per year increase...

This.

This twice. Get two more years for reasonable money or a draft pick. Then let someone else pay for his decline years

I'd be willing to give him a 3 year deal this offseason. Not more than that though, and the idea of 2 years and a QO isn't bad, except that if he has another year like this next year, he won't sticking around for the QO. I suppose there's enough young arms that we can reasonably expect someone to step in there, but there will likely be 2 openings in 2020 if he leaves. 

I would just ride it out.

If he accepts a QO, you get his next 2 years, without having to pay for his decline years.

If he doesn't, you get a draft pick.

With the way that he’s pitching, I doubt Gibby will accept anything less than a significant raise, let alone a QO.

 

Which is why I personally think we should just trade him, because while I don’t think he’s worth the raise he’s gonna get, I do think he’s vastly worth more than one stinking draft pick.

 

With the way that he’s pitching, I doubt Gibby will accept anything less than a significant raise, let alone a QO.

Which is why I personally think we should just trade him, because while I don’t think he’s worth the raise he’s gonna get, I do think he’s vastly worth more than one stinking draft pick.

It's interesting to me how some people are praising Gibson's pitching this year and some people are dogging Odorizzi for his.

 

Gibson's FIP this year is 4.05, Odo's is 4.15.  Gibson has been worth 2.3 fWAR, Odo is at 2.2 fWAR. Odo has more K/9 and less BB/9.  Gibson's biggest advantage is he goes am inning more in games (which is obviously of value).

 

I'm not sure too many teams would trade that much for Gibby.  He was horrible in 2016 and 2017 and while he's certainly been better this year no doubt, he's still not been so good he can command a large amount once he gets to FA unless he REALLY improves on THIS year.  If he goes to FA, team's will see a guy who is 32, with no consistent history of being even ok, much less good.

 

His biggest chance for a nice contract is with us.

 

 

Edited August 26, 20188 yr by jimmer

It's interesting to me how some people are praising Gibson's pitching this year and some people are dogging Odorizzi for his.

 

Gibson's FIP this year is 4.05, Odo's is 4.15.  Gibson has been worth 2.3 fWAR, Odo is at 2.2 fWAR. Odo has more K/9 and less BB/9.  Gibson's biggest advantage is he goes am inning more in games (which is obviously of value).

 

I'm not sure too many teams would trade that much for Gibby.  He was horrible in 2016 and 2017 and while he's certainly been better this year no doubt, he's still not been so good he can command a large amount once he gets to FA unless he REALLY improves on THIS year.  If he goes to FA, team's will see a guy who is 32, with no consistent history of being even ok, much less good.

 

His biggest chance for a nice contract is with us.

My point exactly, I don’t want to overpay someone with no track record.

 

And speaking of teams that would trade for Gibby, I could see the A’s having interest in him, and I sure as h*ll would be quick to make that deal if it meant getting Frankie Montas and a B prospect in return.

 

Gibby's making $4.5 million this season. Is it accurate to double that for 2019?

I would not sign him to an extension and play things out. It's possible he can sustain this performance through his mid-30s like Charlie Morton. I'd rather see it first and pay a higher price later than be stuck with a dud contract.

Just amazing how a pitcher becomes better on a better team. Morton improved,  Verlander looks like he is 20 again. Perhaps find a pitcher that sustains it on a fringe team.

 

See if he bites on something in the 2/20-3/35 range and also try to tack on a performance year/500,000 buyout for a per year increase...

 

If he's a legit number 2 or 3 type, he gets at least twice that in the market. 2/20? That's less than he gets in arbitration and the QO.