Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor

[Don Walcott]

 

That's certainly the vibe you put out with your comment. I'm simply reacting to what you typed.
 

This back and forth started with Riverbrian quoting me when I suggested that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman, and that having Grossman on the roster has limited Molitor's options. I don't think it's reasonable to even get a vibe that I was okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman. The words I typed would indicate almost the opposite of that.

[Riverbrian]

This back and forth started with Riverbrian quoting me when I suggested that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman, and that having Grossman on the roster has limited Molitor's options. I don't think it's reasonable to even get a vibe that I was okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman. The words I typed would indicate almost the opposite of that.

I take full responsibility.

[wsnydes]

This back and forth started with Riverbrian quoting me when I suggested that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman, and that having Grossman on the roster has limited Molitor's options. I don't think it's reasonable to even get a vibe that I was okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman. The words I typed would indicate almost the opposite of that.

I interpreted your comment that I responded to initially to mean that even if Molitor advocated for Grossman and then the FO didn't go out and find an upgrade anyway that it's the FO's fault and he had no culpability. That's what I was responding to, not that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. But based on your comment, I respectfully disagree that it's not reasonable to believe that you were okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman since you appeared to heap all of the blame onto the FO. Your response to my initial comment would seem to back that up with the Clarence Darrow reference.

 

You may not have intended to infer that, but that's how I interpreted it. Even rereading our exchange, I still don't believe it to be unreasonable considering your words. I really don't have any interest in going down the "I meant this or that" rabbit hole.

 

Fact of the matter is that I believe that Molitor essentially "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. If Molitor wouldn't play him, he'd be gone. Does the FO have culpability in that decision, yes they do. Neither party is completely without blame in any roster decisions, including this particular one. But I was not responding to anything regarding anyone being "stuck" with Grossman or any particular player, simply that Molitor wouldn't have any culpability in decision gone bad regarding a player that he advocated for. Nothing more, nothing less.

[ken]

Just to make sure I'm following this,it's the owners fault the FO signed the manager to a 3 year contract and the managers fault that the FO signed and kept poor players. Sounds like being in the FO is pretty safe from responsibility.

[Don Walcott]

 

I interpreted your comment that I responded to initially to mean that even if Molitor advocated for Grossman and then the FO didn't go out and find an upgrade anyway that it's the FO's fault and he had no culpability. That's what I was responding to, not that the FO "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. But based on your comment, I respectfully disagree that it's not reasonable to believe that you were okay with Molitor advocating for Grossman since you appeared to heap all of the blame onto the FO. Your response to my initial comment would seem to back that up with the Clarence Darrow reference.

You may not have intended to infer that, but that's how I interpreted it. Even rereading our exchange, I still don't believe it to be unreasonable considering your words. I really don't have any interest in going down the "I meant this or that" rabbit hole.

Fact of the matter is that I believe that Molitor essentially "stuck" Molitor with Grossman. If Molitor wouldn't play him, he'd be gone. Does the FO have culpability in that decision, yes they do. Neither party is completely without blame in any roster decisions, including this particular one. But I was not responding to anything regarding anyone being "stuck" with Grossman or any particular player, simply that Molitor wouldn't have any culpability in decision gone bad regarding a player that he advocated for. Nothing more, nothing less.

FIrst of all, "even if" is very clear. Second, my position in that post, and every other, is that the FO is responsible regardless of what the manager may have recommended. It's their job. There's a reason they employ analytics people, and it's not so that they can make decisions based on what the manager tells them. The manager cannot be expected to be the analytics department and the scouting department. It was their responsibility to determine whether to stick with Grossman or look for an alternative. Personally, I think they found an alternative in Cave, but just not before the season started with Buxton as a fixture in center. If Buxton sticks at center next year, we have Cave and/or Austin and likely no Grossman.

 

You may believe that Molitor is responsible for these decisions. I don't know, you may be right. But I'm saying again, even if that's the case, I blame the FO. That's their job, their responsibility, and there's no sharing blame here.

[SwainZag]

What exactly does the manager do to "develop young talent?"  and yes this is an honest question.  The Twins employ dozens of employees.  Is it on Molitor's shoulders that Kepler still struggles against left handed pitching?  Or that Dozier got pull happy again this year?  Or that Berrios lost steam once August rolled around?  Or that Eddie will make an occasional base running blunder?  

 

I am not the biggest Molitor fan out there, but he has a whole staff.  There's a lot of questions about the Polanco sac bunt earlier in this thread.  Do we know this came from Molitor?  If Polanco did it on his own, are we still going to blame the manager because the player has the option to have a green light like that?  Do we blame the manager if the 3rd base coach gave the call?  

 

IMO managers will always get more credit when a team plays great and get more blame when a team is playing badly.  I don't think I would give Molly more than a B- to a B, but I think a lot more blame gets thrown on his shoulders around here than it should.

[Riverbrian]

I don't want to start a new thread and I don't know what existing thread to post this in... However, I want to make this point. 

 

David Bote hit another home run for the Chicago Cubs yesterday. 

 

Why do I want to point this out? 

 

David Bote was an 18th round draft pick that never appeared on any of those top prospect lists. He was called up to the Cubs about a month ago and he has a total of 109 MLB AB's. Nobody knew who he was. 

 

The Cubs are currently in one of the most contested playoff races that we have seen in quite some time. 

 

The Cubs currently have Javier Baez, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ and Tommy La Stella as more experienced and established options. 

 

Why do I point this out? 

 

Joe Maddon is playing David Bote!

 

Does anyone believe that Paul Molitor would have played David Bote with Zobrist and Happ sitting on the bench, in playoff contention, in late August. 

 

I don't. 

[Vanimal46]

Happ is batting .172 with a .534 OPS over the last 28 days. Yeah, pretty sure Molitor would bench him too.

[Riverbrian]

 

Happ is batting .172 with a .534 OPS over the last 28 days. Yeah, pretty sure Molitor would bench him too.

 

Logan Morrison

Byron Buxton

Miguel Sano

Max Kepler

Brian Dozier

 

I don't

[Vanimal46]

Gotcha. We're at the point in this thread where Molitor is screwing up in hypothetical scenarios.

[Riverbrian]

Gotcha. We're at the point in this thread where Molitor is screwing up in hypothetical scenarios.

I’m sure you are aware that this Is a larger point of playing time allocation even as you point out the hypothetical nature of the post.

 

If every baseball team is doing the same thing then I suppose that there is no point. But they are not and I’ll keep pointing them out as a way to compare and contrast until the amount of playing time given to Morrison, Wilson, Buxton and Sano becomes as ridiculous to others.

[Vanimal46]

Keep us posted. Until there's something with more substance than 'Molitor's lineup construction/bullpen management is terrible' or 'David Bote played a few games for the Cubs! I bet Molitor wouldn't do that!' I'll keep pushing back as well.

[Don Walcott]

 

Gotcha. We're at the point in this thread where Molitor is screwing up in hypothetical scenarios.

To be fair, much of the criticism and praise for Molitor is based on speculation. It's only a logical progression to start posing hypothetical scenarios where he would do well or not do well.

[Riverbrian]

 

Keep us posted. Until there's something with more substance than 'Molitor's lineup construction/bullpen management is terrible' or 'David Bote played a few games for the Cubs! I bet Molitor wouldn't do that!' I'll keep pushing back as well.

 

What kind of substance are you looking for? 

 

Lineup Construction is out

Bullpen Management is out

David Bote played a few games for the Cubs is out

 

What will you allow? Define substance because we are all flying blind here. 

 

I'm trying to be constructive. I'm not even calling for his head. I'm trying to point out another way that other teams are doing it. You want to push back against that... Ok... Go ahead...  I guess, I deserve it. 

 

Go ahead and carve me up at your pleasure. 

[TheLeviathan]

I hear Paul Molitor doesn't like puppies. 

 

/thread

[Riverbrian]

 

Happ is batting .172 with a .534 OPS over the last 28 days. Yeah, pretty sure Molitor would bench him too.

 

Eddie Rosario is batting .210 with a .576 OPS over the last 28 days. 

 

Are you sure? 

 

BTW... Maddon hasn't benched Happ at this point but Molitor will? 

 

Also... Zobrist is batting .356 with a 1.026 OPS over the last 28 days. I did mention both Zobrist and Happ. 

 

[jimmer]

 

Eddie Rosario is batting .210 with a .576 OPS over the last 28 days. 

 

Are you sure? 

 

BTW... Maddon hasn't benched Happ at this point but Molitor will? 

 

Also... Zobrist is batting .356 with a 1.026 OPS over the last 28 days. I did mention both Zobrist and Happ. 

Well, the Cubs depth of true quality players is ridiculous. Maddon has been given options.

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, the Cubs depth of true quality players is ridiculous. Maddon has been given options.

 

I won't deny that... but that is ultimately my point. 

 

With all the depth of options that the Cubs undeniably have and the depth of options that the Twins absolutely don't have. 

 

It's the Cubs... (in the middle of an intense National League playoff race) who are willing to play a "David Bote" type player.  

 

 

[old nurse]

 

I don't want to start a new thread and I don't know what existing thread to post this in... However, I want to make this point. 

 

David Bote hit another home run for the Chicago Cubs yesterday. 

 

Why do I want to point this out? 

 

David Bote was an 18th round draft pick that never appeared on any of those top prospect lists. He was called up to the Cubs about a month ago and he has a total of 109 MLB AB's. Nobody knew who he was. 

 

The Cubs are currently in one of the most contested playoff races that we have seen in quite some time. 

 

The Cubs currently have Javier Baez, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ and Tommy La Stella as more experienced and established options. 

 

Why do I point this out? 

 

Joe Maddon is playing David Bote!

 

Does anyone believe that Paul Molitor would have played David Bote with Zobrist and Happ sitting on the bench, in playoff contention, in late August. 

 

I don't. 

Reputations and repeated phrases becoming truths. Molitor does not play rookies and prefers veterans is one of them. In a poor hitting offense , Molitor would play  Bote. . The guy hits.  An OPS over .800  Why he doesn't show up on prospect lists is that that hand to eye thing doesn't work so well with leather instead of wood.  Those players do not get  ranked as high unless they are huge HR hitters. What player in the Twins organization that hits like that  has and sat? You hit like Bote, you play. The thing is, other than Sano, what rookie in a Twin's uniform has hit like that?

[Riverbrian]

 

 

Reputations and repeated phrases becoming truths. Molitor does not play rookies and prefers veterans is one of them. In a poor hitting offense , Molitor would play  Bote. . The guy hits.  An OPS over .800  Why he doesn't show up on prospect lists is that that hand to eye thing doesn't work so well with leather instead of wood.  Those players do not get  ranked as high unless they are huge HR hitters. What player in the Twins organization that hits like that  has and sat? You hit like Bote, you play. The thing is, other than Sano, what rookie in a Twin's uniform has hit like that?

 

I have to get to work... so I'll respond to this later after I do some research, because first, I want to know many Rookies have gotten at least 100 AB's? 

[Vanimal46]

What kind of substance are you looking for?

 

Lineup Construction is out

Bullpen Management is out

David Bote played a few games for the Cubs is out

 

What will you allow? Define substance because we are all flying blind here.

 

I'm trying to be constructive. I'm not even calling for his head. I'm trying to point out another way that other teams are doing it. You want to push back against that... Ok... Go ahead... I guess, I deserve it.

 

Go ahead and carve me up at your pleasure.

Data compared to the average manager is ideal. Does Molitor manage his bullpen better or worse than the average manager? Does he have unorthodox lineups more often than the average manager?

 

These are the questions I've been asking throughout this thread.

 

Statements like 'Molitor is terrible managing a bullpen and lineup' don't have a lot of substance behind it when it's not compared to other examples.

[Vanimal46]

Eddie Rosario is batting .210 with a .576 OPS over the last 28 days.

 

Are you sure?

 

BTW... Maddon hasn't benched Happ at this point but Molitor will?

 

Also... Zobrist is batting .356 with a 1.026 OPS over the last 28 days. I did mention both Zobrist and Happ.

Is the only OF option left on the 40 man Buxton? I suppose we could bench Rosario for Astudillo. Sounds like a plan to me.

[Riverbrian]

Data compared to the average manager is ideal. Does Molitor manage his bullpen better or worse than the average manager? Does he have unorthodox lineups more often than the average manager?

 

These are the questions I've been asking throughout this thread.

 

Statements like 'Molitor is terrible managing a bullpen and lineup' don't have a lot of substance behind it when it's not compared to other examples.

Isn’t that what I’m doing? I might not be comparing to the average manager. But old school with new school. But isn’t that what I’m doing.

 

I’m providing examples.

[Vanimal46]

Isn’t that what I’m doing? I might not be comparing to the average manager. But old school with new school. But isn’t that what I’m doing.

 

I’m providing examples.

Keep doing the research and you may come to the conclusion that all managers handle their bullpens and weird lineups in a similar fashion.

 

May I suggest your next case study? Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

Lovullo should be fired for over using Bradley, Chaffin, and Hirano. All have 62(!) appearances which ranks top 10 in the league. He also started Jake Lamb for a long time and was having a bad season!

[Riverbrian]

Is the only OF option left on the 40 man Buxton? I suppose we could bench Rosario for Astudillo. Sounds like a plan to me.

Bringing up Astundillo isn’t taking me seriously. That’s making your point by being unnecessarily extreme and gives the impression that I’m saying bench Rosario for Astundillo.

 

Happ hasn’t been benched by the Cubs and you said that you are pretty sure Molitor would bench him.

 

Is any part of this post not true?

[Riverbrian]

Keep doing the research and you may come to the conclusion that all managers handle their bullpens and weird lineups in a similar fashion.

 

May I suggest your next case study? Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

Lovullo should be fired for over using Bradley, Chaffin, and Hirano. All have 62(!) appearances which ranks top 10 in the league. He also started Jake Lamb for a long time and was having a bad season!

Have I said that Reed and Pressly and Hildenberger have been over used.

 

I’ve said that Molitor will keep giving them the ball when they are struggling but I haven’t said they were overused.

 

I have looked at the D Backs pen and the Twins Pen usage. My theory is that the games used numbers are high in both cases because they were healthy.

 

Don’t attach that discussion to me. That is others... it’s not mine.

[old nurse]

 

I have to get to work... so I'll respond to this later after I do some research, because first, I want to know many Rookies have gotten at least 100 AB's? 

2015 Eddie Rosario 474 Byron Buxton 138,  Sano 335 

2016 Max Kepler 447 Park with an ^ 244,  Polanco 270,  Centeno 192

2017 Granite 107

2018 Cave,  LaMarre,

[Riverbrian]

 

2015 Eddie Rosario 474 Byron Buxton 138,  Sano 335 

2016 Max Kepler 447 Park with an ^ 244,  Polanco 270,  Centeno 192

2017 Granite 107

2018 Cave,  LaMarre,

 

Thanks for the list.

 

I was going to do it. 

 

For a David Bote comp, we should probably include AAAA guys because Bote is an out of nowhere story, You and I both typed rookie which is kind of limiting and rookie wasn't really the reason I brought him up, it was Bote being nobody.   

 

I'd say Centeno, Granite and LaMarre (maybe Cave) would be the closest comps from your list but the list could get bigger still if we listed the "who are these guys" guys which (in my opinion) are closer Bote comps. Granite was a 27th ranked prospect, so he was ranked but I think Granite is a "who are these guys" guy. 

 

In 2015: Buxton and Sano were #1 and #2 in the system. Rosario was top ten. I don't feel they are good comps, but I will say this, just to show that I'm capable of objectivity. As I'm started looking through 2015. Molitor and the front office did a pretty good job of adjusting on the fly. They opened 2015 with Santana at SS, Arcia in LF, Schaefer in CF and Vargas at DH. However, a point could still be made that the guys that Molitor/Front office were willing to adjust, were all under 25.  

 

I apologize... I didn't have the time to post as comprehensibly as I'd like and I probably won't tonight or tomorrow but I will. 

 

 

[Don Walcott]

 

Isn’t that what I’m doing? I might not be comparing to the average manager. But old school with new school. But isn’t that what I’m doing.

I’m providing examples.

Okay, here's just one example in the comparison of Maddon v. Molitor:

 

1. At the end of the 2017 season, Molitor would not have used Lackey as a relief pitcher in the last game of the regular season, which the Cubs lost because of Lackey.

 

2. Then, in the first game of the playoffs, Molitor would not have gone to Lackey at the end of the game for 1.2 innings and 27 pitches.

 

3. Then, even if he had done either or both of the previous two things (that he wouldn't have done), he definitely would not have put Lackey in at the end of Game 2 to blow the game for the Cubs.

 

Therefore, Molitor is better at managing his bullpen than Maddon.

 

P.S. There are other great examples of Maddon being terrible at managing his bullpen from the 2016 WS.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Bringing up Astundillo isn’t taking me seriously. That’s making your point by being unnecessarily extreme and gives the impression that I’m saying bench Rosario for Astundillo.

Happ hasn’t been benched by the Cubs and you said that you are pretty sure Molitor would bench him.

Is any part of this post not true?

 

I'd argue using one player's usage over a small time frame to attack another manager is where the unnecessary extremes happened.  

 

We wouldn't declare Tyler Austin better than Eddie Rosario based on the last ten days.  And therein lies the real problem with this discussion - we simply don't have good metrics, with strong sample sizes, from which to draw conclusions.  Instead we draw sweeping conclusions like "Well Molitor would never do this one thing that some one other guy did one or two times!" and think the argument has merit.

 

It doesn't.  Most of our observable criteria for managers are impossible to put into context, so we are driven almost entirely by perception rather than fact.  And that observable criteria is but a shred of the manager's job, the rest of which we don't see at all.  I get why we want to do it and feel compelled to do it....but we should probably take some time to consider the limits of our ability to do so.

Edited August 29, 2018 by TheLeviathan