Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor

[Jerr]

 

Would he be even more valuable with 6 years of control?

Bringing up Buxton now, would not guarantee that would happen. Let him earn his way back. Buxton is where he is mostly do to his own doing.

 

Falvine could be referring to all the times that the Twins have mishandled Buxton and not just the "not calling him up".

 

Hopefully Buxton comes back, to be what so many thought he would be, a true steady superstar. 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Alright... This is going too far. They can't guarantee him a starting job to make amends.

 

Are you asking Jake Cave to compete with the mythical what Byron Buxton should be hitting or are you asking Jake Cave to compete with what Byron Buxton actually hit? 

 

I get all the injury suggestions but I have been watching all the games and I am looking at the stats that back up what I have been seeing with my eyes. . 

 

Both Buxton and Sano were brutal enough in 2018 that neither of them should be handed a starting job in 2019. 

 

Both need to battle back and earn the responsibility and both of them should be informed of that right now... so they can get serious in the off-season about what is in front of them. 

 

If Buxton is gone in 4 years... he's gone. 

 

Right now it's all about value and he is more valuable with 4 years of control than 3 years of control.

If the Twins are dumb enough to move off of Buxton and Sano after a bad year, they deserve everything that comes to them. Buxton is the future of this franchise. Jake Cave is a 4th outfielder. He shouldn't even be in the discussion about the future of this franchise and his feelings shouldn't have any bearing on what this team does.

[Riverbrian]

 

Would he be even more valuable with 6 years of control?

 

Depends on a lot of factors.

 

Things like Age and Contract are determining factors. 

 

If you are talking about the 6 year free agent deal that he will sign with any of the other 29 teams because he won't sign with us. 

 

He will be 29 which is the beginning of the "Decline Phase" and the Yankees out bid the Braves with a 180 million dollar deal over 6 years.  

 

If that is what you were asking?

 

His 4 years at maybe 50 Million tops through arbitration during his peak years is going to be WAY MORE valuable than the 6 at 180 million as he ages. 

 

If you are asking about value strictly from an on-field production standpoint.

 

According to the tables. Buxton should be at peak performance in year 3 of the 4 years of control we now have.

 

According to the tables... 3 of his 4 most productive years will now be under Twins control. 

 

If you are asking something else... I don't understand the question. 

 

It's about Value.

 

Ethics are a legitimate argument but like it or not, the Twins have increased his potential value to the Twins, if Byron Buxton is able to increase his personal value by actually performing, is in his best interest to do so... even if he is mad at us.

[Don Walcott]

 

Depends on a lot of factors.

 

Things like Age and Contract are determining factors. 

 

If you are talking about the 6 year free agent deal that he will sign with any of the other 29 teams because he won't sign with us. 

 

He will be 29 which is the beginning of the "Decline Phase" and the Yankees out bid the Braves with a 180 million dollar deal over 6 years.  

 

If that is what you were asking?

 

His 4 years at maybe 50 Million tops through arbitration during his peak years is going to be WAY MORE valuable than the 6 at 180 million as he ages. 

 

If you are asking about value strictly from an on-field production standpoint.

 

According to the tables. Buxton should be at peak performance in year 3 of the 4 years of control we now have.

 

According to the tables... 3 of his 4 most productive years will now be under Twins control. 

 

If you are asking something else... I don't understand the question. 

 

It's about Value.

 

Ethics are a legitimate argument but like it or not, the Twins have increased his potential value to the Twins, if Byron Buxton is able to increase his personal value by actually performing and actually performing, is in his best interest... even if he is mad at us.

The question is simple. Is he more valuable to the Twins with 4 years of control or 6?

[Riverbrian]

 

If the Twins are dumb enough to move off of Buxton and Sano after a bad year, they deserve everything that comes to them. Buxton is the future of this franchise. Jake Cave is a 4th outfielder. He shouldn't even be in the discussion about the future of this franchise and his feelings shouldn't have any bearing on what this team does.

 

If the Twins are dumb enough to watch a crash and burn in 2018 and repeat the process thinking that would never happen again. They deserve everything that comes to them. 

 

If Buxton is the future of this franchise... You should be pleased... We just got another year of him. 

[Riverbrian]

 

The question is simple. Is he more valuable to the Twins with 4 years of control or 6?

 

The answer isn't simple.  

 

I sense you are trying to set me up for the big hammer and I apologize for not co-operating. 

 

[Don Walcott]

 

The answer isn't simple.  

 

I sense you are trying to set me up for the big hammer and I apologize for not co-operating. 

So why is it so simple that 4 years is better than 3?

[Riverbrian]

 

So why is it so simple that 4 years is better than 3?

 

Because we know most of the X factors.

 

Age and a reasonable assumption of cost based on past arbitration cases that pretty much set the standard for future arbitration cases. 

 

All dependent on the Big X Factor of course... Will he perform? 

[rghrbek]

 

If the Twins are dumb enough to move off of Buxton and Sano after a bad year, they deserve everything that comes to them. Buxton is the future of this franchise. Jake Cave is a 4th outfielder. He shouldn't even be in the discussion about the future of this franchise and his feelings shouldn't have any bearing on what this team does.

Are we sure Jake Cave is a 4th outfielder?  I know he is not a CF'er, but right now but this year he's playing better than Kepler (yes small sample size).

 

This is a complicated mess by all accounts.  The way the MOY is managing currently is frustrating though.

[gunnarthor]

 

Are we sure Jake Cave is a 4th outfielder?  I know he is not a CF'er, but right now but this year he's playing better than Kepler (yes small sample size).

 

This is a complicated mess by all accounts.  The way the MOY is managing currently is frustrating though.

It's not impossible that he could be an avg corner OFer for a year if the team wanted to move Kepler for something but that's his ceiling and it's optimistic. He's more likely a decent 4th OFer. But he shouldn't have any bearing on Buxton's future.

Edited September 3, 2018 by gunnarthor

[Don Walcott]

 

Because we know most of the X factors.

 

Age and a reasonable assumption of cost based on past arbitration cases that pretty much set the standard for future arbitration cases. 

 

All dependent on the Big X Factor of course... Will he perform? 

If he doesn't perform, it doesn't matter for how many years. If he does perform, you've just lost any chance of keeping him beyond 4 years.

 

Obviously, we won't know the correct answer for another year or two or even three regarding whether he will perform, and whether we should have sought an extension (or more than one extension).. But I'd rather pay him more for 6 years, betting that he will perform, than be sure that he'll be done with us in four years. The FO has closed the door on having Buxton more than four years. And the FO's gamble is based on short-term monetary considerations, which makes it frustrating to be a Twins fan.

[VATwinsFan]

For what's it worth, Mauer, Sano, Austin, and Garver are listed in the starting line-up for today.

 

But then again, so are Grossman and Field.

[USAFChief]

If he doesn't perform, it doesn't matter for how many years. If he does perform, you've just lost any chance of keeping him beyond 4 years.

 

Obviously, we won't know the correct answer for another year or two or even three regarding whether he will perform, and whether we should have sought an extension (or more than one extension).. But I'd rather pay him more for 6 years, betting that he will perform, than be sure that he'll be done with us in four years. The FO has closed the door on having Buxton more than four years. And the FO's gamble is based on short-term monetary considerations, which makes it frustrating to be a Twins fan.

It’s not really a monetary issue.

 

It’s a one more year of team control issue.

 

I also believe I read the Twins tried to sign him to a deal this past winter, and for whatever reason he wasn’t agreeable. I could be wrong on this.

 

I do agree the chances of a long term contract are now probably gone.

[wsnydes]

If he doesn't perform, it doesn't matter for how many years. If he does perform, you've just lost any chance of keeping him beyond 4 years.

 

Obviously, we won't know the correct answer for another year or two or even three regarding whether he will perform, and whether we should have sought an extension (or more than one extension).. But I'd rather pay him more for 6 years, betting that he will perform, than be sure that he'll be done with us in four years. The FO has closed the door on having Buxton more than four years. And the FO's gamble is based on short-term monetary considerations, which makes it frustrating to be a Twins fan.

I think you nailed the frustration factor point. This team has so many facets that need to be sorted out that making short term financial decisions like they did is very frustrating. It would have been nice to see them try to keep sorting at least some of those things out.

[Don Walcott]

 

It’s not really a monetary issue.

It’s a one more year of team control issue.

I also believe I read the Twins tried to sign him to a deal this past winter, and for whatever reason he wasn’t agreeable. I could be wrong on this.

I do agree the chances of a long term contract are now probably gone.

As Riverbrian stated, team control means reasonably being able to predict costs based on the outcomes likely in arbitration. That's a money issue. If we pay a guy enough money, he'll stay longer. Of course, if we jerk him around, he won't stay longer. I see it primarily as a money issue. But I understand your point.

[USAFChief]

As Riverbrian stated, team control means reasonably being able to predict costs based on the outcomes likely in arbitration. That's a money issue. If we pay a guy enough money, he'll stay longer. Of course, if we jerk him around, he won't stay longer. I see it primarily as a money issue. But I understand your point.

Well, no. The extra year of team control means he CANT leave as a free agent until after the 2022 season. Without it, he could have left after the 2021 season.

 

It has nothing to do with predicting costs.

[TheLeviathan]

Money is a factor, but team control means he can't walk away because of money.  You can plan on him being on your roster, that has far more value to the organization than the dollar amount attached to his name.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sounds like Molitior is helping to poisoning the Buxton/Twins relationship as best he can. 

 

Molitor was careful not to reveal much of his planned message, one thing he won’t be doing is reassuring Buxton the starting center field job will be his upon reporting to spring training next February. "It's early,” Molitor said. “We’ve got some games here. I would imagine there’s going to be some competition for multiple spots on our team next spring."

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/09/02/byron-buxton-decision-becomes-sensitive-topic-for-twins-players/

 

So you want the Twins to hand him CF next year?

 

People, we're losing our minds here.  

[Riverbrian]

 

If he doesn't perform, it doesn't matter for how many years. If he does perform, you've just lost any chance of keeping him beyond 4 years.

 

Obviously, we won't know the correct answer for another year or two or even three regarding whether he will perform, and whether we should have sought an extension (or more than one extension).. But I'd rather pay him more for 6 years, betting that he will perform, than be sure that he'll be done with us in four years. The FO has closed the door on having Buxton more than four years. And the FO's gamble is based on short-term monetary considerations, which makes it frustrating to be a Twins fan.

 

Now that you have revealed your point. 

 

In my opinion, you have provided a legitimate alternate direction to the path they chose. 

 

Maybe instead.. they just make a bet on Byron Buxton.

 

Byron we are going to place a bet on you right now. We will buy up those arbitration years plus a couple more and then roll the dice. 

 

I agree that is a legit course of action. 

 

However... We have X factors again. We don't know if they didn't try to extend Byron and were turned down by the agent. 

 

It comes down the agent and team agreeing on how much of a bet they are willing to make.  

 

You have to remember that the agent and player are also capable of placing a bet on themselves as well and therefore turn down a reasonable offer in order to secure a bigger pay day down the road.  

 

 

[Platoon]

If the Twins are dumb enough to watch a crash and burn in 2018 and repeat the process thinking that would never happen again. They deserve everything that comes to them. 

 

If Buxton is the future of this franchise... You should be pleased... We just got another year of him.

 

I think the tenor of this topic may be more who will be able to make the Twins, someday, a truly competitive team? Jake Cave may contribute to that in a small way. But that chance will not evolve without Buxton reaching his ceiling. And since there is no empirical data that Jake Cave is a fool, he knows that more than anyone. Molitors comments likely fall into the depth and category of Gardy's bilateral weakness one.

[gunnarthor]

 

So you want the Twins to hand him CF next year?

 

People, we're losing our minds here.  

90 ML at-bats. Injured for most of them. Yes, I want the Twins to hand him CF next year.

[TheLeviathan]

90 ML at-bats. Injured for most of them. Yes, I want the Twins to hand him CF next year.

All the same issues plagued him even when healthy. I had bought shares in Buxton taking the next step too...but injuries are not the only thing that derailed him. Old habits and a bad approach seemed to rear their head too.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd hand him the Cf job, but I'd have found another OF too, a good one. Cave, Kepler, Rosario can all play center if Buxton doesn't work, but I want a really good OF brought in, assuming Machado is out.

[The Wise One]

 

Because if a manager can’t replace a 7 OPS+. We are done.

If Buxton is the guy who needs playing time to develop and therefore tolerate a 7 OPS+. We are not contenders anymore and there is no reason to sign Logan Morrison. Kenny’s Vargas would have been just fine.

I honestly don’t want to defend LaMarre because I’m really not that impressed with him but here is another point.

Projections are for the front office. Actual performance as it happens is on the manager.

Play through  migraines and nicked thus performing poorly the player can get ripped. Don't play with leg weakness, you get mocked and ridiculed.  There is no winning for a player

[Riverbrian]

 

Play through  migraines and nicked thus performing poorly the player can get ripped. Don't play with leg weakness, you get mocked and ridiculed.  There is no winning for a player

 

I'm not ripping Byron Buxton.

 

I'm ripping the person who played him through migraines, a broken toe and various things to the tune of an 4 OPS+ and still started him 26 out of his 28 games when he was on the active 25 man roster. 

 

I'm ripping the same person who played Logan Morrison through what I'm told was a painful hip impingement while he produced a 73 OPS+. 

 

Buxton just lost a year of service time and Morrison is going to sign a minor league contract next year and we are out of contention. The strategy of playing through the pain was a complete failure with real world consequences to the team and the players, if anybody wants to claim injuries were the reason.  

 

I blame the manager who made out the lineup cards or the front office who told him to do it or the meeting of everyone that reached a consensus of such.  

 

We have a 25 and 40 man roster so we had options. The names and past history of the options does not matter to me, they were hand chosen to play in case of injury, poor play or social media gaffes.

 

In Morrison and Buxton we had both injury and poor play and they still kept the every day job while remaining active and producing poorly. 

 

I'm not blaming Buxton, I just want the year back. 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Gimenez playing again. Why?