Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor

[Riverbrian]

 

 

Ask yourself honestly, would Maddon or Roberts do better with the Twins this year than Molitor?

 

Honestly... I have asked myself that. I've been researching this since June. 

 

I posted this back on July 1.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30462-twins-game-started/?hl=%2Bdave+%2Broberts

 

 

I don't know the answer to your question, but yes... I am still under the opinion that Dave Roberts wouldn't have allowed Buxton, Morrison, Sano, Dozier, Kepler and Wilson to do the damage they did for as long as they did and therefore would have done better than Molitor with the Twins. But... I want to stress, that I don't know the answer to your question, none of us do.

 

I also fully recognize that it's hard for anyone to plug 6 holes with the roster limitations. 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

1. No... Ryan LaMarre received 69 AB's (out of his 99 with the Twins) from May 29 to June 23. Why then? Buxton was hurt... He was about to go on the D.L. LaMarre had to wait nearly two months until Buxton was put on the DL to end his 2018 before he got a chance.

 

BTW... LaMarre hit .263 with a .313 OBP with the Twins.

 

LaMarre is now up to .288 with a .333 OBP and a .727 OPS with the White Sox.

 

Byron Buxton who got the playing time by starting 26 of his 28 healthy games hit .156 with an OBP of .183 and an OPS of .383 but LaMarre had to wait until Buxton got hurt first.

 

LaMarre may have been a bad choice for depth and Buxton maybe the greatest prospect in Twins history but LaMarre was better than Buxton by quite a bit in 2018. Molitor was juggling on his unicycle making it much harder.

 

2. Agreed

 

3. Why do the Dodgers and Cubs have the luxury?

 

My point isn't about AAAA types specifically. I am using Muncy and Bote as examples to say... "Play someone else" "Anyone Else" Ryan LaMarre, Gregorio Petit, Will Middlebrooks or Jim Gaffigan... I don't care. We had guys who were playing every single day and killing us.

We're so far down the rabbit hole in this discussion I don't remember what the point of this is. It sounds like your Ryan LaMarre Opportunity thread again.

 

Go back and read your thread again, because you changed your tune and who you're blaming since then.

Edited August 31, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Riverbrian]

 

We're so far down the rabbit hole in this discussion I don't remember what the point of this is. It sounds like your Ryan LaMarre Opportunity thread again.

Go back and read your thread again, because you changed your tune and who you're blaming since then.

 

I haven't changed my tune... I'm just really bad at explaining myself. 

 

I honestly don't understand how others can't see what I'm seeing.

 

The only explanation is that I'm really bad at explaining myself. 

[Riverbrian]

We're so far down the rabbit hole in this discussion I don't remember what the point of this is. It sounds like your Ryan LaMarre Opportunity thread again.

 

Go back and read your thread again, because you changed your tune and who you're blaming since then.

In a nutshell. I’m trying to be objective. I’m trying to be constructive and I am not calling for his head but I am trying to point out that there is another way of doing things.

 

I do believe that Molitor is guilty of playing players everyday who didn’t deserve it.

[The Wise One]

 

Honestly... I have asked myself that. I've been researching this since June. 

 

I posted this back on July 1.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30462-twins-game-started/?hl=%2Bdave+%2Broberts

 

 

I don't know the answer to your question, but yes... I am still under the opinion that Dave Roberts wouldn't have allowed Buxton, Morrison, Sano, Dozier, Kepler and Wilson to do the damage they did for as long as they did and therefore would have done better than Molitor with the Twins. But... I want to stress, that I don't know the answer to your question, none of us do.

 

I also fully recognize that it's hard for anyone to plug 6 holes with the roster limitations. 

Roberts has a team that should be leading the division by a safe margin not anywhere near that. What would Roberts do with these players based on this year is not a good example to use. LaMarre started hot and was an option for Molitor. When he cooled, Molitor played him less. In Chicago LaMarre has once again started hot. 35 AB is not that much to judge a player on other than the manager is using him effectively and not over exposing him. I don't think Molitor really had that option 

[Doomtints]

 

I'm not taking the bait, man. If it's that easy to scrape through the data I'm open to reading your analysis.

 

Cool. Let me know what you find. Here's a link which might help.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=schwaky01&year=2018&t=b

 

I'll be extra helpful. Here's an image.

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Roberts has a team that should be leading the division by a safe margin not anywhere near that. What would Roberts do with these players based on this year is not a good example to use. LaMarre started hot and was an option for Molitor. When he cooled, Molitor played him less. In Chicago LaMarre has once again started hot. 35 AB is not that much to judge a player on other than the manager is using him effectively and not over exposing him. I don't think Molitor really had that option 

 

Roberts also has a team that had 4 starting pitchers on the DL at the same time and is only 2 games back of the AL West leading D-Backs. Their Record is 72-62... Now If you are saying that they should be 82-52 right now with the best record in the National League. I won't argue that.. .it's personal opinion and impossible to debate but... my opinion is that the National League is twice as competitive as the American League this year so 72-62 isn't a bad number. Only the Cubs are better with a little cushion everybody else is in striking distance. The National League is entertaining baseball this year. 

 

However... If Roberts and all the interesting playing time allocation moves that he makes is actually costing them games. I can't debate that... I only have my opinion with no numbers to back that up. I can only confirm that he manages his roster much different than the majority of managers and Paul Molitor is in that majority. 

 

On your point with LaMarre... You have it backwards. LaMarre was hot in Spring Training and April and that was when Molitor barely utilized him. It wasn't until May 29 that LaMarre starting getting playing time after Buxton went on the DL and LaMarre had cooled. No question and oddly enough... that was when he got his playing time. Because Molitor has rolled with the struggling time and time again this year. 

 

I want to be clear because when I post stuff like that last paragraph, it becomes red meat and my point gets lost down the rabbit hole. I was just correcting your assessment of LaMarre's usage.  

 

To be clear: 

I am not and never have been predicting a major league career for Ryan LaMarre. I don't know Ryan Lamarre other than he made the roster. 

 

I am not saying that LaMarre's hot streaks and cold streaks need to be timed perfectly by the manager. 

 

I am saying that LaMarre was given a spot on the 25 man roster (Yes Blame the front office for that if anyone is inclined) and every spot on that 25 man roster is valuable and needs to be occupied by players who can play full time in case of injury and really bad performance from a designated starter and we had really bad performance from multiple designated starters. 

 

I am saying that Ryan LaMarre played better than Byron Buxton and it wasn't even close. 

 

I am saying that any time I bring up Ryan LaMarre's name as part of the discussion, he becomes the point of discussion and I end up looking like I think Ryan LaMarre is the next JD Martinez. I wasn't the one who selected LaMarre for the 25 man roster.  

 

Ultimately, what I'm saying is that we had woeful play from a bunch of players and that is why we are sellers. While we may not have had great options... we had options because we get a 25 man roster just like all the other teams and Molitor elected not to go with those options to full extent and therefore went down with the ship. 

 

My opinion is that Roberts wouldn't do that. I could be wrong but I also might be right and I have been researching it before I presented it for consumption on Twinsdaily. 

 

[USAFChief]

 

Roberts also has a team that had 4 starting pitchers on the DL at the same time and is only 2 games back of the AL West leading D-Backs. Their Record is 72-62... Now If you are saying that they should be 82-52 right now with the best record in the National League. I won't argue that.. .it's personal opinion and impossible to debate but... my opinion is that the National League is twice as competitive as the American League this year so 72-62 isn't a bad number. Only the Cubs are better with a little cushion everybody else is in striking distance. The National League is entertaining baseball this year. 

 

However... If Roberts and all the interesting playing time allocation moves that he makes is actually costing them games. I can't debate that... I only have my opinion with no numbers to back that up. I can only confirm that he manages his roster much different than the majority of managers and Paul Molitor is in that majority. 

 

On your point with LaMarre... You have it backwards. LaMarre was hot in Spring Training and April and that was when Molitor barely utilized him. It wasn't until May 29 that LaMarre starting getting playing time after Buxton went on the DL and LaMarre had cooled. No question and oddly enough... that was when he got his playing time. Because Molitor has rolled with the struggling time and time again this year. 

 

I want to be clear because when I post stuff like that last paragraph, it becomes red meat and my point gets lost down the rabbit hole. I was just correcting your assessment of LaMarre's usage.  

 

To be clear: 

I am not and never have been predicting a major league career for Ryan LaMarre. I don't know Ryan Lamarre other than he made the roster. 

 

I am not saying that LaMarre's hot streaks and cold streaks need to be timed perfectly by the manager. 

 

I am saying that LaMarre was given a spot on the 25 man roster (Yes Blame the front office for that if anyone is inclined) and every spot on that 25 man roster is valuable and needs to be occupied by players who can play full time in case of injury and really bad performance from a designated starter and we had really bad performance from multiple designated starters. 

 

I am saying that Ryan LaMarre played better than Byron Buxton and it wasn't even close. 

 

I am saying that any time I bring up Ryan LaMarre's name as part of the discussion, he becomes the point of discussion and I end up looking like I think Ryan LaMarre is the next JD Martinez. I wasn't the one who selected LaMarre for the 25 man roster.  

 

Ultimately, what I'm saying is that we had woeful play from a bunch of players and that is why we are sellers. While we may not have had great options... we had options because we get a 25 man roster just like all the other teams and Molitor elected not to go with those options to full extent and therefore went down with the ship. 

 

My opinion is that Roberts wouldn't do that. I could be wrong but I also might be right and I have been researching it before I presented it for consumption on Twinsdaily. 

LaMarre started games April 5, 10, 21, 23, 24, and 26 April, and 4, 5 May, and appeared in about as many as a sub.

 

If you ask me, that's too many, not too few.

 

I have to push back here...I don't want a manager who plays Ryan LaMarre over Byron Buxton in April or May, based on a handful of spring training ABs and a couple ground ball singles to right.

 

I guess we'll have to disagree on this, Bri.

[wsnydes]

I think that I understand what RB is trying to say, and I agree with some of it. I agree with the notion that it takes Molitor too long to make adjustments sometimes. In my view, it did take Molitor too long to take Dozier out of the leadoff spot. Then he basically doubled down by dropping him to the middle of the order. As much as I still don't get why Grossman is on the roster, he probably should have been playing more than Morrison at DH. This would especially be the case if Morrison's hip was indeed bothering him all season long.  You've got to ride your horses, that goes for the bullpen too, but I think that he can do a better job of finding places to rest guys. There's no reason to bring Pressly into a 5 run game, save him for high leverage situations. As much as Dozier likes to play every day, even he's got to get to a point where the mental break of a day off would be rejuvenating. Riding your horses to the point of being ineffective is counterproductive.

 

I can't go along with the LaMarre over Buxton bit though. Buxton needs to play as much as he can at that point.   

[yarnivek1972]

If you go through every major league team. I think you'll find that all the teams have similar numbers. There is slight variance in the total team numbers but almost all teams are going to have 4 or 5 over 400 AB's and 13 to 15 players with at least 100 AB's.

 

Due to 27 outs being the standard, All the teams have a similar amount of AB's and similar roster space.

Unless some team has a ridiculous number of extra innings, I think one would logically find that teams rank in total plate appearances is consistent with their team obp. In other words, team with best obp probably has most PA.

[Riverbrian]

LaMarre started games April 5, 10, 21, 23, 24, and 26 April, and 4, 5 May, and appeared in about as many as a sub.

 

If you ask me, that's too many, not too few.

 

I have to push back here...I don't want a manager who plays Ryan LaMarre over Byron Buxton in April or May, based on a handful of spring training ABs and a couple ground ball singles to right.

 

I guess we'll have to disagree on this, Bri.

I understand we’ve had this discussion before. Then we need a better option.

 

Because if a manager can’t replace a 7 OPS+. We are done.

 

If Buxton is the guy who needs playing time to develop and therefore tolerate a 7 OPS+. We are not contenders anymore and there is no reason to sign Logan Morrison. Kenny’s Vargas would have been just fine.

 

I honestly don’t want to defend LaMarre because I’m really not that impressed with him but here is another point.

 

Projections are for the front office. Actual performance as it happens is on the manager.

[IndianaTwin]

 

...Odorizzi has a history of struggling if you leave him in too long. Every person on the planet knows this. Odorizzi struggles to get through the fifth, ...

 

Actually, my wife is one person who is not aware of this, though I've said it often enough myself that she may be starting to get the picture. My mother-in-law doesn't even know who Odorizzi is, however. :-)

 

But you point to one of the inherent challenges. As I read on TwinsDaily, two of the most common complaints about Molitor's in-game managing are that 1) he stays with the starter too long; and 2) that he overworks his bullpen. Short of a 15-man pitching staff with Chris Gimenez as your bench player, what's a guy to do?

 

I'm guessing the response is, "Don't use the same bullpen guys over and over." But as I look at long-term usage patterns and try to balance them with in-game situations, I actually think he walks that tightrope pretty well.

 

For example, we worry about overuse with Rogers because of him being on pace for 74 games. But look at his game logs and you'll see that he's only gone back-to-back on 15 occasions. On all but one of them, he threw 12 pitches or fewer in one game or other other (or both, on several occasions). The one exception was a time when his first game was 14 pitches, but came on the heels of four days off, so he was still rested. On the two occasions when he went back-to-back-to-back, in the middle games he threw 8 and 3 pitches. The first series was 15-8-17 pitches, but it came on the heels of two days off and was followed by three days off. The second stretch had a total of 20 pitches in three days. I don't know how to compare that to other managers, but to me, his long-term usage pattern for one of his most effective pitchers has been pretty good. 

 

I didn't take the time to look at others as closely, but a cursory eyeballing of Hildy, for example, show's a similar long-term pattern. 

 

I think it would be interesting to see Tom's game summary pitch count chart as an entire season to see what it looks like. 

Edited September 1, 2018 by IndianaTwin

[TheLeviathan]

 

But you point to one of the inherent challenges. As I read on TwinsDaily, two of the most common complaints about Molitor's in-game managing are that 1) he stays with the starter too long; and 2) that he overworks his bullpen. Short of a 15-man pitching staff with Chris Gimenez as your bench player, what's a guy to do?

 

 

If this thread is any indication?  Pitch Ryan LaMarre.

[Riverbrian]

 

Actually, my wife is one person who is not aware of this, though I've said it often enough myself that she may be starting to get the picture. My mother-in-law doesn't even know who Odorizzi is, however. :-)

 

But you point to one of the inherent challenges. As I read on TwinsDaily, two of the most common complaints about Molitor's in-game managing are that 1) he stays with the starter too long; and 2) that he overworks his bullpen. Short of a 15-man pitching staff with Chris Gimenez as your bench player, what's a guy to do?

 

I'm guessing the response is, "Don't use the same bullpen guys over and over." But as I look at long-term usage patterns and try to balance them with in-game situations, I actually think he walks that tightrope pretty well.

 

For example, we worry about overuse with Rogers because of him being on pace for 74 games. But look at his game logs and you'll see that he's only gone back-to-back on 15 occasions. On all but one of them, he threw 12 pitches or fewer in one game or other other (or both, on several occasions). The one exception was a time when his first game was 14 pitches, but came on the heels of four days off, so he was still rested. On the two occasions when he went back-to-back-to-back, in the middle games he threw 8 and 3 pitches. The first series was 15-8-17 pitches, but it came on the heels of two days off and was followed by three days off. The second stretch had a total of 20 pitches in three days. I don't know how to compare that to other managers, but to me, his long-term usage pattern for one of his most effective pitchers has been pretty good. 

 

I didn't take the time to look at others as closely, but a cursory eyeballing of Hildy, for example, show's a similar long-term pattern. 

 

I think it would be interesting to see Tom's game summary pitch count chart as an entire season to see what it looks like. 

 

I believe you are right. I believe the usage numbers are up compared to other teams for two reasons. 

 

1. The Bullpen was pretty healthy. 

2. He got very little use out of two bullpen positions by insisting that he saves his long man for long man situations (Magill) which kinda wasted that bullpen spot. Plus he did a fair amount of hiding, Kinley, Hughes, and a couple of the guys on the Rochester shuttle which wasted another position. This increased the pressure on the guys that he used. 

[Mike Sixel]

Chris Gimenez is your starting first baseman today, while Austin sits.. ..

[USAFChief]

Anyone still defending Molitor, raise your hand.

 

Anyone?

[old nurse]

 

Anyone still defending Molitor, raise your hand.

Anyone?

What would change in a meaningless game.  The game showed the FO  what some of the September call ups could do. Get out the pitch forks. The whole season and people's career rested on this one.

 

[Vanimal46]

Anyone still defending Molitor, raise your hand.

 

Anyone?

I am. September 2, 2018 isn't going to change my mind.

[Vanimal46]

Chris Gimenez is your starting first baseman today, while Austin sits.. ..

Austin also started 5 games in a row before today. 4th time he's sat in the last 20 games since he's been called up.

Edited September 3, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Wyotwinsfan]

This isn't Molitor's fault, but I don't think we need to see more of Belisle, Duffy, or Field. On the manager, though, wouldn't it have been fun to have had Gardy managing today when Belisle got tossed?

[Mr. Brooks]

Austin also started 5 games in a row before today. 4th time he's sat in the last 20 games since he's been called up.

4 times in 20 is kind of a lot, IMO. That's 32 times over a 162 game season. Why is he sitting at all in favor of Gimenez? Who is more likely to be a contributor to the next Twins contender, Austin or Gimenez?

 

I'm not making any judgements off one game, but it's absolutely a data point that goes against him, IMO.

[USAFChief]

Austin also started 5 games in a row before today. 4th time he's sat in the last 20 games since he's been called up.

Unless there was something physically wrong with Austin, that’s no reason he should have been on the bench today, in favor of Gimenez.

[3balls2strikes]

Steve Lein:

"The up and down records of his teams during his tenure also tells me he may not have that special sauce that extracts the best out of most of his players consistently. That's one idea I do think the great managers accomplish."

THIS! Just look what happened to the Cardinals when they replaced Matheny with Shildt.  

 

Edited September 3, 2018 by 3balls2strikes

[Platoon]

There is no conceivable reason Austin should not hit every day for the rest of the year. LH, RH, or ambidextrous pitchers notwithstanding. I don't even care where he plays, but some OF time wouldn't hurt. Giminez should play only after Garver gets kicked out of game, and Astudillo has a broken right arm. Anything over that is wasted AB's. (Edit this to include Field alongside Giminez on the bench)

Edited September 3, 2018 by Platoon

[Vanimal46]

4 times in 20 is kind of a lot, IMO. That's 32 times over a 162 game season. Why is he sitting at all in favor of Gimenez? Who is more likely to be a contributor to the next Twins contender, Austin or Gimenez?

 

I'm not making any judgements off one game, but it's absolutely a data point that goes against him, IMO.

Digging into the data he sat out 8/15, 8/21, 8/23 now 9/2. Other than the time he sat out 2 games in a 3 day stretch he's played every day.

 

Maybe he tweaked something, maybe he needs a mental break for a day. It's not like he's being egregiously mishandled during his time with the Twins.

Edited September 3, 2018 by Vanimal46

[gunnarthor]

Sounds like Molitior is helping to poisoning the Buxton/Twins relationship as best he can. 

 

Molitor was careful not to reveal much of his planned message, one thing he won’t be doing is reassuring Buxton the starting center field job will be his upon reporting to spring training next February. "It's early,” Molitor said. “We’ve got some games here. I would imagine there’s going to be some competition for multiple spots on our team next spring."

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/09/02/byron-buxton-decision-becomes-sensitive-topic-for-twins-players/

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Sounds like Molitior is helping to poisoning the Buxton/Twins relationship as best he can. 

 

Molitor was careful not to reveal much of his planned message, one thing he won’t be doing is reassuring Buxton the starting center field job will be his upon reporting to spring training next February. "It's early,” Molitor said. “We’ve got some games here. I would imagine there’s going to be some competition for multiple spots on our team next spring."

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/09/02/byron-buxton-decision-becomes-sensitive-topic-for-twins-players/

 

Why would a manager reassure a player that a job will be his after reporting to spring training in September before he knows who are the players on the roster actually are? 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Why would a manager reassure a player that a job will be his after reporting to spring training in September before he knows who are the players on the roster actually are? 

Because the team just pissed off their most important player to the point that the GM said he knows he has to make amends to Buxton? Because a manager who thinks Jake Cave should compete with Buxton shouldn't manage anymore?

[Riverbrian]

 

Because the team just pissed off their most important player to the point that the GM said he knows he has to make amends to Buxton? Because a manager who thinks Jake Cave should compete with Buxton shouldn't manage anymore?

 

Alright... This is going too far. They can't guarantee him a starting job to make amends.

 

Are you asking Jake Cave to compete with the mythical what Byron Buxton should be hitting or are you asking Jake Cave to compete with what Byron Buxton actually hit? 

 

I get all the injury suggestions but I have been watching all the games and I am looking at the stats that back up what I have been seeing with my eyes. . 

 

Both Buxton and Sano were brutal enough in 2018 that neither of them should be handed a starting job in 2019. 

 

Both need to battle back and earn the responsibility and both of them should be informed of that right now... so they can get serious in the off-season about what is in front of them. 

 

If Buxton is gone in 4 years... he's gone. 

 

Right now it's all about value and he is more valuable with 4 years of control than 3 years of control.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Don Walcott]

 

Alright... This is going too far. They can't guarantee him a starting job to make amends.

 

Are you asking Jake Cave to compete with the mythical what Byron Buxton should be hitting or are you asking Jake Cave to compete with what Byron Buxton actually hit? 

 

I get all the injury suggestions but I have been watching all the games and I am looking at the stats that back up what I have been seeing with my eyes. . 

 

Both Buxton and Sano were brutal enough in 2018 that neither of them should be handed a starting job in 2019. 

 

Both need to battle back and earn the responsibility and both of them should be informed of that right now... so they can get serious in the off-season about what is in front of them. 

 

If Buxton is gone in 4 years... he's gone. 

 

Right now it's all about value and he is more valuable with 4 years of control than 3 years of control.

Would he be even more valuable with 6 years of control?