Article: What To Do With Logan Forsythe?

[ThejacKmp]

This is not a question. They should absolutely trade him if anyone will take him. Same as with Dozier and Escobar and Lynn. They should sign someone better on a 2 year deal to play 2B this offseason. Hopefully Dozier or Escobar.

 

2 years vs. 2 weeks. This isn't a tough one

[Shaitan]

I wonder if he's a "small market" guy who prefers playing out of the national spotlight.

 

More likely, he's probably just on a hot streak. Ride it out, see where things sit after Thanksgiving.

[Thrylos]

Flip him while he is hot.  And sign Escobar next off-season to play second.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Going to be tough to trade him this offseason. His contract expires on the last day of this season.

What's even better than acquiring an expiring contract? Acquiring an expired contract!

[USAFChief]

 

What's even better than acquiring an expiring contract? Acquiring an expired contract!

Well, yes, but the cost will be higher, since he's now cheaper for the trading team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

• Roster Flexibility - As has been mentioned in the other thread, if Gordon DOES figure it out and take over at 2nd, you still have tons of flexibility with Forsythe. 

Not really "tons of flexibility." You could shift him to 3rd. He can't play shortstop, and his bat likely won't play at first or DH.

 

If Sano is healthy and capably manning third, you're basically stuck with Forsythe at second, or on the bench as one of two utility infielders (you'd need someone else to play short).

[gman]

Trade him. I believe the Twins original thought was to showcase him in the hopes of trading him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Of course, there's always the chance he regresses to his LAD form, but there's enough in his history from Tampa to think this could be sustainable (at a more reasonable level of course) and maybe LA just wasn't a good fit for him.

In some ways, he hasn't actually rebounded from his LAD form. His isolated power (SLG minus AVG) with the Twins is .082, virtually the same as it was with the Dodgers this year (.083).

 

His combined LAD/MIN season BABIP is now up to .316, above his career mark of .302, almost up to his career high of .323. And his season wRC+ is still only 82, and he's barely above replacement overall (0.3 fWAR).

 

Another way to look at it: his OPS with the Twins is 1.031, with a .537 BABIP. Substitute a .317 BABIP, and that OPS plummets to .680 -- which, lo and behold, is very close to his mediocre combined LAD/MIN OPS of .656. (And that's assuming that his drop in K% stays -- career 20.5%, down to 14.8% with the Twins. Normalize that, and his Twins OPS would actually be .642, worse than his Dodgers OPS.)

 

I'm not trying to rain on any parades -- Forsythe has absolutely had a couple successful weeks. But there's almost nothing "projectionable" in that two week performance at all.

[T_J]

Are some of you Gordon promotion people even looking at his numbers? He needs to be considered for a demotion over a promotion. The kid can't currently hit AAA pitching. He has a like a 540 OPS in AAA. I don't even need advanced statistics to tell me he isn't ready and won't be ready next season. If he has any value left they should be looking to trade Gordon.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

• Insurance - There's no way Gordon performs well enough down the stretch here to write him in for 2019.  Something has been exposed in AAA that he needs to figure out. I still love him and see him as a long-term fixture, but I think he HAS to go back to AAA next year and at least have a couple solid months before he comes up. You can't bank on that, so you need a stop-gap vet. A guy like Murphy isn't going go come here knowing he will get bounced around unless we dramatically overpay him.  Someone like Forsythe makes more sense as insurance. We saw what happened this year when we banked on Sano, Buxton and Polanco being keys to the team in 2018. Young players are volatile..

I think you are actually over-rating Gordon here. I think he gets his feet wet in MLB some time in the 2019 season, but I doubt he actually forces himself into the lineup at 2B before season's end.

 

There's absolutely no reason we can't sign someone to play 2B and give them reasonable assurance that the job is theirs for 2019.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

• FA Flexibility - The key to everything Falvine has done from a fan's perspective is what do they do this offseason? People aren't excited about a rebuild, but if they spend the money with a good FA class, it will pay off.  (I know...loading up the system was good too, just focusing on the fact this doesn't have to mean long-term "rebuild").  They will have plenty of payroll flexibility, they SHOULD be active, but they can't sign everyone. Getting a value filler at 2B to bridge the gap to Gordon could help them overpay for someone at another position (or three).

Not to pick on you, but what moves do you see that would require saving this money in the infield? Check out the potential FA list here:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Keep in mind, Murphy last signed for 3/37, and Lowrie for 4/28 -- and now they are 3-4 years older. Dozier and Escobar probably aren't getting any more than those deals either. I think you might be overrating the financial savings of signing Forsythe for 1/4 or whatever, and under-rating the decrease in quality (and meaningful position flexibility -- a guy who can cover SS, or whose bat could play at 1B/DH could be huge for this team).

[Otto von Ballpark]

And just so I don't seem too anti-Forsythe, ZiPS still pegs him around a 2 WAR player. You could certainly do worse. But that's also assuming power (.137-.160 ISO) that he hasn't shown in 2 years now, which might be an unnecessary risk to take, given all of our resources and needs.

[Cast of Thousands]

A little surprised at the contingent of "trade him" folks.  Who in the world is going to give the Twins anything for him right now?  They would get NOTHING for him in the next few weeks.

 

They could do a lot worse while spending a lot more money than having Forsythe for a reasonable 1-year deal for 2019.  He's a very capable 2B that knows how to handle himself at the plate, even when he's not on a hot streak.  At the moment, there are no other options for a 2019 Twins 2B man.

[birddog]

Except for these past two weeks, Forsythe has been the epitome of a mediocre/serviceable MLB player. Let's hope any talk of the future is not based on mediocrity. If we have no takers for Forsythe hitting .400, why should we sign him for a full season when he will probably hit for half that? Find out if bringing up Gordon in September lights a fire in him. If it does trade Gordon in the offseason for an established player who plays both halves of the season. Dozier was a good player for us, but never put together two consistently solid halves. Gordon has not proved he can do it either though he is still young. Either way, sign Escobar.

[Doomtints]

What Dozier was for the Twins this year = What Forsythe would be for the Twins next year.

 

I'm not against bringing him back, but hopefully the Twins explore other options first.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get the sign him crowd. Check out his numbers over his career, and the trend......this team isn't going to contend next year by filling out the holes with replacement level, or slightly above, players.

 

The don't need to save money on 2B, they have tens of millions available to spend.

 

I'd trade him for any lottery ticket, but I don't know why a GM trades for him w/o an injury. Barring that, I play him here the rest of the year, and thank him for his time here at the end of the season, and go get a better player.

[USAFChief]

 

A little surprised at the contingent of "trade him" folks.  Who in the world is going to give the Twins anything for him right now?  They would get NOTHING for him in the next few weeks.

 

They could do a lot worse while spending a lot more money than having Forsythe for a reasonable 1-year deal for 2019.  He's a very capable 2B that knows how to handle himself at the plate, even when he's not on a hot streak.  At the moment, there are no other options for a 2019 Twins 2B man.

They'd get nothing for him, but they should sign him to play second base next year?

[Vanimal46]

Let the season play out and explore all avenues to acquire someone who's better. I wouldn't make it a priority at all to sign LoFo right away. If he's unemployed in February and the Twins couldn't make a deal for someone better, sign him then.

Edited August 17, 2018 by Vanimal46

[jmlease1]

I doubt anyone is going to give up much for Forsythe, and he's a functional MLB 2B, so I'm fine with letting hold down the fort until the end of the year. Let him get some ABs and see if he's a guy they think can return to his TB form, or he's really a guy who's started on his decline phase and won't be a significant factor going forward.

 

If the Twins evaluators run through the offseason and think he's the best option to hold things over for next season, I'd be ok with bringing him back on a 1 year deal. he could be a reasonable bridge to Gordon, if the team thinks Gordon isn't going to be ready next season. (who knows, maybe what we'll need is a bridge to Royce Lewis at SS, with Polanco moving over to 2B)

 

I would not extend him now, no way. There's little chance the team could do a deal that would make sense for the club right now anyways; does anyone think Forsythe would accept a 1 year extension at $2M? I don't. I'm fairly certain his advisers would tell him "keep hitting, you're going to be a free agent, we can sell you better now that the dodger nightmare is over". he still might not get more than $2M or so, but someone might offer him a 2 year deal, someone might go higher (if he hits like he did in 2016, $5M would be a steal).

 

Let it play out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A little surprised at the contingent of "trade him" folks.  Who in the world is going to give the Twins anything for him right now?  They would get NOTHING for him in the next few weeks.

Forsythe still has ~$2 mil remaining in 2018 salary. Getting rid of some of that wouldn't be *nothing*, exactly.

 

Although I don't see a fit on any remaining contenders. Schoop has been awful for the Brewers but they're probably not looking for yet another external infielder. Maybe if someone wants a RH pinch hitter?

[Mike Sixel]

Good point above.....they might be moving Polanco to 2B, and promoting Lewis in 2020.....

 

OTOH, if Buxton can't hit, they might be moving Lewis to CF at some point.....

[purppride1]

 

I think you are actually over-rating Gordon here. I think he gets his feet wet in MLB some time in the 2019 season, but I doubt he actually forces himself into the lineup at 2B before season's end.

 

There's absolutely no reason we can't sign someone to play 2B and give them reasonable assurance that the job is theirs for 2019.

I agree 100%. Best case scenario is Gordon forcing his way in, but based on his AAA performance so far it's far from a sure thing... I don't think giving a guy like Murphy assurance the job is his in 2019 is the problem. It's 2020 and 2021 that may be more up in the air. Especially if Lewis keeps progressing. Any MI the Twins pursue who wants a multi-year deal will probably look at this team as a less-than-ideal scenario just because of what's coming.  Unless they miraculously get Machado to play SS of course, and slide Polanco to 2B, then this is settled and Gordon probably becomes trade bait, but EVERY TEAM will make a run at Machado, the chances that happens are so remote...

[Fargoguy]

Sign Machado and move Polanco to 2B.  Trade Polanco when Gordon is ready.  Move Machado or Lewis to 3B or 2B when Lewis is ready.  Trade Gordon or move Sano to 1B to make room for Lewis. 

 

I know it's a pipe dream, but Machado will be worth whatever money is necessary to get him since it probably allows us to solidify the entire infield for nearly a decade.  He shouldn't cost too much more than Mauer did with a much better chance of providing value through the entire contract.

[howieramone2]

 

My first opinion was to trade him and his recent run has been help to the Twins but I would like to see Gordon called up in September see if he could handle big league pitching. So I am back to trading him because I just don't see he has future here with Minnesota and if he does it means were in rebuilding phase again. 

You can not determine if a team is rebuilding by how they handle one player. If they deal members of the core of 4 plus Polanco and Rosario, then they are rebuilding.

[Winston Smith]

I'd much prefer they sign Iglesias and move Polanco to 2B. Strong no to resigning Forsythe.

[howieramone2]

 

Good point above.....they might be moving Polanco to 2B, and promoting Lewis in 2020.....

 

OTOH, if Buxton can't hit, they might be moving Lewis to CF at some point.....

To be an All-Star, Buxton only needs to hit .240. No need to panic.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think giving a guy like Murphy assurance the job is his in 2019 is the problem. It's 2020 and 2021 that may be more up in the air. Especially if Lewis keeps progressing. Any MI the Twins pursue who wants a multi-year deal will probably look at this team as a less-than-ideal scenario just because of what's coming.

I think Machado might be the only infielder who can afford to be so choosey. Murphy will be 34 and only got a 3 year deal last time. Lowrie will be 35. Escobar is younger, but has only started once on opening day aside from Polanco's suspension. They're not going to find "ideal scenarios" where they won't be subject to competition at 2B from younger players in 2-3 years.

 

If anything, Minnesota have an advantage by being able to offer an everyday 1B/DH spot for that eventuality (or 3B, in the case of Escobar).

[purppride1]

 

Not to pick on you, but what moves do you see that would require saving this money in the infield? Check out the potential FA list here:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Keep in mind, Murphy last signed for 3/37, and Lowrie for 4/28 -- and now they are 3-4 years older. Dozier and Escobar probably aren't getting any more than those deals either. I think you might be overrating the financial savings of signing Forsythe for 1/4 or whatever, and under-rating the decrease in quality (and meaningful position flexibility -- a guy who can cover SS, or whose bat could play at 1B/DH could be huge for this team).

 

Very fair question. I'd love some combination of Escobar (slide Sano to 1st), Carlos Gonzalez (trade Kepler) and another good arm. Plus some bullpen help but that always tends to work itself out. 

[purppride1]

 

Sign Machado and move Polanco to 2B.  Trade Polanco when Gordon is ready.  Move Machado or Lewis to 3B or 2B when Lewis is ready.  Trade Gordon or move Sano to 1B to make room for Lewis. 

 

I know it's a pipe dream, but Machado will be worth whatever money is necessary to get him since it probably allows us to solidify the entire infield for nearly a decade.  He shouldn't cost too much more than Mauer did with a much better chance of providing value through the entire contract.

Fans in every market are saying the exact same thing. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Very fair question. I'd love some combination of Escobar (slide Sano to 1st), Carlos Gonzalez (trade Kepler) and another good arm. Plus some bullpen help but that always tends to work itself out. 

That seems underwhelming. The offense would be the same as 2018, but sub Forsythe for Dozier, and Carlos Gonzalez for Kepler?

 

Gonzalez is on a 1/5 deal right now. Forsythe could be 1/2 or something cheap with incentives. Escobar, I would be pretty surprised if he got more than 3/39 and he could get less. That's like less than $20 mil in 2019 payroll. Cheap but not terribly good or efficient. Unless you think we can sign both Kershaw and Keuchel or something? You'd be giving up on Sano at 3B, and adding an outfielder who can't play CF.