Article: What To Do With Byron Buxton?

[yarnivek1972]

Looks like their moving OFs around on the Twins to prepare for Buxton's return. Kepler in CF again today insterad of Cave. Maybe they're trying to figure out which OFs can play CF to give them more options for next year. I think that tells us (1) they aren't sure if they can expect Buxton back in CF so they need to see Kepler and Cave there, and (2) they want to most flexible group of OFs around next year so they want to see Kepler in CFas a viable option for a no Buxton OF. I htink Buxton will come back in October so they can solve how these 4 OFs play out next year and, dare I say it, if there will be room for Grossman.

How does this explain Rosario in RF?

 

Not opposed to it, but he’s generally only played LF or CF at the MLB level.

 

Basically, what’s the (real or perceived) advantage of Cave in LF as opposed to RF?

Edited August 15, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[ashbury]

Basically, what’s the (real or perceived) advantage of Cave in LF as opposed to RF?

A desire to not repeat the BRE^*?

 

^{* _{Ben Revere Experience}}

[jkcarew]

Buxton is probably guaranteed a decent amount this winter in arbitration ($2 mil, perhaps?). That's pretty much his baseline for the next few years too, even if he doesn't get healthy or produce -- someone will keep betting on that potential through a few arb seasons in his mid-20's.

 

If he's in any way useful during that time, he's probably going to get $25 mil. Trevor Plouffe got $19.65 million through 4 arbitration seasons.

But the IF in that last paragraph is a pretty significant if where we sit today...and that’s what the ‘life of luxury’ money is dependent on. And if he’s not, he’s out of baseball or a AAAA player. I’m not sure his camp wouldn’t be willing to look at relatively friendly extensions...maybe sooner rather than later. Turning it around...what IF his 2019 resembles in any way his 2018 either in health or performance?

[yarnivek1972]

Buxton is probably guaranteed a decent amount this winter in arbitration ($2 mil, perhaps?). That's pretty much his baseline for the next few years too, even if he doesn't get healthy or produce -- someone will keep betting on that potential through a few arb seasons in his mid-20's.

 

If he's in any way useful during that time, he's probably going to get $25 mil. Trevor Plouffe got $19.65 million through 4 arbitration seasons.

That seems extremely high to me. I’d be surprised if it was $1 mil.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But the IF in that last paragraph is a pretty significant if where we sit today...and that’s what the ‘life of luxury’ money is dependent on. And if he’s not, he’s out of baseball or a AAAA player. I’m not sure his camp wouldn’t be willing to look at relatively friendly extensions...maybe sooner rather than later. Turning it around...what IF his 2019 resembles in any way his 2018 either in health or performance?

Like I said, he could get $2 mil this winter in arbitration. Probably $2 mil minimum for 2020 too, even if he does nothing -- he's not getting cut in the next year.

 

Already got $6 mil signing bonus, he's made ~$1.6 mil in MLB salaries to date. The lucrative Sheboygan saugage endorsement. Already has a pension, plus lifetime health care.

 

Not sure guaranteeing $25 mil right now is all that important, when he already has ~$12 mil without hedging bets on his future.

[Lonestar]

Buxton did not play today.  I wonder what that means.

 

Health has been a problem, but Buxton has been broken as a hitter.  He has 16 AAA games left to prove he is not broken as a hitter.  Otherwise I would give him September off.

[Squirrel]

Buxton did not play today.  I wonder what that means.

 

Health has been a problem, but Buxton has been broken as a hitter.  He has 16 AAA games left to prove he is not broken as a hitter.  Otherwise I would give him September off.

I thought I had read somewhere that they aren’t going to play him every day in the beginning to guard against reinjury.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That seems extremely high to me. I’d be surprised if it was $1 mil.

Career 4.5 fWAR, 7.0 bWAR already. 5.2 bWAR last year alone, plus a Gold Glove. It's not all based on this season, or on basic counting stats anymore.

 

Plouffe got $2.35 mil as a super-2 and had't done too much, 1.5 career bWAR at that point. Even ignoring his poor defense, it was 4.6 oWAR in 1351 PA, compared to 3.5 oWAR in 1074 for Buxton. And that was 5 years ago.

 

If Buxton isn't super-2 and surpasses 3 years service time in September, note that Escobar got $2.1 mil in his first arb season, with 3.9 bWAR, 4.1 oWAR in 1243 career PA. Even got a raise the next year to $2.6 mil after a dismal -0.7 bWAR campaign.

 

Maybe Buxton won't get $2 mil this winter, I am no expert -- but I don't think he'll get a token award barely above the minimum either.

[birddog]

You gotta like Buck, and I pray he can become the superstar we dreamed of but he just cannot stay healthy. Odds are he gets hurt in the few days he plays for Rochester so we don't have to make a decision. I shudder each time he hits a HR in minors, because he gets in the mindset "I'm a home run hitter and not a contact hitter".

 

If you ask me what he needs to do get back up, I say he has to master the bunt where he successfully gets a bunt  hit at least 3-4 times a week. He could probably sacrifice bunt to a .250 average with his speed. Have him stay at Fort Myers for a month and work with Rod Carew.

 

We don't have to worry about the extra year of control since the Pohlads said with the new stadium Twins will re-sign all our free agents.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

They should not bring him up based on performance and health. If he is playing every other day he doesn’t even have time to establish playing well and he certainly hasn’t met that bar yet.

 

These September at bats are not going to matter next spring.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They should not bring him up based on performance and health. If he is playing every other day he doesn’t even have time to establish playing well and he certainly hasn’t met that bar yet.

 

These September at bats are not going to matter next spring.

Could get enough at bats to show improved K rate, that stabilizes pretty quickly, no? And could be a good indicator for 2019.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Peeking at last year's arb awards, I see Maikel Franco got $2.95 mil as a super-2 coming off a -0.2 bWAR season. Obviously gets points over Buxton for staying on the field, but Franco was 2 years removed from being a plus-hitter, and obviously didn't have a gold glove. $1.5-2 mil for Buxton wouldn't seem outlandish. Should be interesting to follow.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Buxton is probably guaranteed a decent amount this winter in arbitration ($2 mil, perhaps?). That's pretty much his baseline for the next few years too, even if he doesn't get healthy or produce -- someone will keep betting on that potential through a few arb seasons in his mid-20's.

 

If he's in any way useful during that time, he's probably going to get $25 mil. Trevor Plouffe got $19.65 million through 4 arbitration seasons.

Billy Hamilton OPS .664 in ‘16 when he went to Arb and got 2.6 mil. Buck OPS .383 in ‘18. In 3 years buck has 5 weeks of tantalizing hitting.

 

I doubt he gets 2 mil in Arb. The gold glove will help, but how much? Maybe 1.5 mil?

 

Peter Bourjos made 1.2 mil in his first year of arb in 14, in 13 his ops was .606. Bourjos only made around 8 mil through arb.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Sconnie

[Riverbrian]

 

Didn't JJ Hardy get his time manipulated in a similar fashion when he was with the Brewers? 

 

I don't believe he won that... and honestly, Buxton has zero ground to stand on if the Twins did it. His performance speaks for itself, and a hot few weeks in August isn't going to change that, nor should it. 

 

Hardy was sent down 1 day short in 2009. Alcides Escobar was called up.

 

The MLBPA on behalf of Hardy never filed a grievance. 

 

Of course... Hardy was traded during the off season for Carlos Gomez. It could be argued that the extra year increased his trade value.

 

Maybe we could have traded the Brew Crew Alexi Casilla instead if the Brewers wouldn't have increased Hardy's value with that manipulation (that was a joke). 

 

Alex Gordon was another in 2009 and he is an interesting comparable to Buxton. Gordon was also a former #2 pick just like Buxton. At age 25 (Buxton is 24), Gordon was a weak hitting 3B approaching his third year of service time when he was sent down to the minors.

 

He returned to the majors in 2010 as an OF. 

 

Interesting enough.. At the age of 27 Gordon finally exploded for a dang good 5 year stretch of solid baseball. 

 

So let's not give up on Buxton yet. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Glen Perkins comes to mind.  Eflin might lose enough time with his 10 day demotion.  I am sure there are more players with mlb experience sent down     As far as Buxton goes,   almost 1000 PA, before this season, .701 ops.   Can he do a Dozier or a JD Martinez?

 

Yeah that's right... Perkins was also a 2009 issue. That one got contentious... and also an example that the supposed "bad will" that is created doesn't seem to stop players from eventually signing extensions. 

[Riverbrian]

 

I guess the question is, how many major-league at-bats do you sacrifice to get the extra year of control?

 

For my money, I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice many at all.  Buxton doesn't know how to hit major league pitching, and until that is figured out, the extra year of control doesn't have much value.

 

First things first.  He needs reps at hitting.  After that, he needs more reps at hitting.  And I'll hope that we even care about his service time down the road.

 

I agree that he needs reps without question. 

 

But.. my unprofessional FWIW opinion is that he might need a little re-tooling and then the reps. 

[The Wise One]

He has one option left. If he does not hit in the spring they can get their days that way and call him up next week if they want to. The year of control is worth far less than what a healthy hitting Buxton brings to the team. It might cost the team more money, but so what.  If he does not hit and ends up a .720 OPS GG  CF he is not going to be expensive to keep and you continue to draft CF

[yarnivek1972]

Peeking at last year's arb awards, I see Maikel Franco got $2.95 mil as a super-2 coming off a -0.2 bWAR season. Obviously gets points over Buxton for staying on the field, but Franco was 2 years removed from being a plus-hitter, and obviously didn't have a gold glove. $1.5-2 mil for Buxton wouldn't seem outlandish. Should be interesting to follow.

Franco played 150 plus games and had 600 plus PA. Buxton is sitting under 30 games and 100 PA. In other words, he’s been hurt or in the minors all year. Trevor May got $650 K this year with over 3 years service time.

[jorgenswest]

Could get enough at bats to show improved K rate, that stabilizes pretty quickly, no? And could be a good indicator for 2019.

120-150 PAs

 

In season I start looking at those rare stats around Memorial Day.

Edited August 16, 2018 by jorgenswest

[Otto von Ballpark]

Franco played 150 plus games and had 600 plus PA. Buxton is sitting under 30 games and 100 PA. In other words, he’s been hurt or in the minors all year. Trevor May got $650 K this year with over 3 years service time.

I said Franco had a clear advantage in games. He was just an example of guys getting awards based in part on earlier seasons. I don't think Buxton will get close to his award, but he's not getting $650k either. May's career is 0.3 bWAR. Peak of 1.4. 2018 won't help, but Buxton is going to get some credit for 2017, and even some for 2016 (1.8 bWAR in just over half a season).

 

If you want a comp for a guy coming off a terrible season, there is Jorge Soler last winter. 110 PA of 36 OPS+. MLBTR still estimated he would have gotten $1.1 mil as a super-2 in arbitration last winter, and his previous seasons were no better than Buxton either (slighty better bat but far worse glove and baserunning, and fewer PAs too). Not a stretch at all to think Buxton might get $1.5 mil, even if you think my initial guess of $2 mil was too high.

[Otto von Ballpark]

120-150 PAs

 

In season I start looking at those rare stats around Memorial Day.

Rochester plus Minnesota, Buxton had potentially 46 games remaining in 2018 when this article was written, over 7 weeks. Could get 120-150 PA there if we wanted. Even if we want to give him ample rest, and he only plays 4 games a week, he will probably be pushing 100 PA.

 

And hypothetically, if 120-150 is where it stabilizes, I have to imagine that a significant enough improvement at 100 PA could be meaningful. Say a guy was previously at 30% K rate, but managed 100 PA at 15%. I wouldn't call that worthless information.

 

And for that matter, even if he continued struggling over his next 100 PA, or 120-150 or whatever -- there is value to knowing that on October 1st this year, rather than on May 25th next year. Not just for the player's offseason prep, but the team's too -- trades/FA, waiver claims (could be big in spring training), etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Remember, the Twins could have optioned Sano just a couple days earlier back in June, and they would have stood to gain an extra year of control if Sano suffered an injury in the minors and couldn't return to the majors in 2018. They didn't do it. Suggests that perhaps the timing of Buxton's demotion was not service-time related either, and if he is healthy enough to return for Rochester, he should be healthy enough to return to MLB yet this season.

Edited August 16, 2018 by spycake

[jorgenswest]

Rochester plus Minnesota, Buxton had potentially 46 games remaining in 2018 when this article was written, over 7 weeks. Could get 120-150 PA there if we wanted. Even if we want to give him ample rest, and he only plays 4 games a week, he will probably be pushing 100 PA.

And hypothetically, if 120-150 is where it stabilizes, I have to imagine that a significant enough improvement at 100 PA could be meaningful. Say a guy was previously at 30% K rate, but managed 100 PA at 15%. I wouldn't call that worthless information.

And for that matter, even if he continued struggling over his next 100 PA, or 120-150 or whatever -- there is value to knowing that on October 1st this year, rather than on May 25th next year. Not just for the player's offseason prep, but the team's too -- trades/FA, waiver claims (could be big in spring training), etc.

I prefer the value of the extra year and would send him to Florida. Wade and maybe even Austin can get time when Cave, Rosario or Kepler sit. Buxton isn’t playing every day and I don’t know if he is even playing back to back days. He isn’t going to be seeing the best pitching in AAA or September. Given that pitching the data will be less reliable even at 150 PAs.

[yarnivek1972]

In the two seaons before Soler’s 36 OPS+, he posted 99 and 103. Both higher than Buxton at his best. By the way, Buxton’s OPS+ is 5 this year. 5.

 

They may settle somewhere, but I’d be surprised if the Twins submit a figure over $1 mil. He has been beyond terrible when he has played. He hasn’t played much. And his offense has been below league average - most of the time WAY below - his entire career.

 

IMO, a good comp for Buxton right now is Peter Bourjos at the time of his first arb go around. Bourjos had one season with an oWAR of 3.9. Other than that, pretty bad, but always above zero (Buxton has had TWO negative oWAR seasons). However, Bourjos had 3 seasons with a dWAR of .9 or better. Buxton so far has had just one.

 

Bourjos received $1.2 mil just 4 years ago. IMO just as elite a defender who was slightly better offensively.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I get that, but it's not so simple. I mean, his injuries this year were migraines, a broken toe from a foul ball, and a wrist sprain. I'm not an "exercise" kind of guy but I don't know what you can do about those first two. And the last one, he had a similar wrist issue going into last September, and wound up with a solid .790 OPS that month.

I have no idea what his offseason regimen was last year, but if you are willing to play him for 3 weeks at AAA right now, health-wise I don't see why you shouldn't be willing to play him for 4 weeks in MLB after that.

 

I agree with your point at the end and I'm no expert on training elite athletes....but dinky injuries like this are not new for him.  He's missed a lot of time over his development for these sorts of injuries as well.  

 

I look at the last four weeks with the big league club as a mental restart and the offseason as a chance for a physical restart.  We have to do something to help him endure the rigors of a baseball campaign.  At this point, if people believe his injuries have led to his offensive issues, I don't see any reason to have optimism about his offense until we find a way to stem the injury tide.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I prefer the value of the extra year and would send him to Florida. Wade and maybe even Austin can get time when Cave, Rosario or Kepler sit. Buxton isn’t playing every day and I don’t know if he is even playing back to back days. He isn’t going to be seeing the best pitching in AAA or September. Given that pitching the data will be less reliable even at 150 PAs.

Won't Wade and Austin be facing the same suspect pitching, in the same amount of PAs as Buxton? What's that going to tell you? Wade in particular has virtually zero shot of starting on opening day 2019, where presumably Buxton does.

 

Austin has hardly played OF in 3 years. I'd actually be a little surprised if the Twins call up Wade this September, and more surprised if they give him any significant PAs. If we are just wishcasting, why not use 1B and DH to maximize opportunities for younger players? DH might be particularly good for Buxton if you are concerned about health.

 

I also think "September pitching is worse" is frequently overstated. Sure, some new pitchers usually get called up, but it's not like the whole staffs or rotations get turned over on September 1st, nor do minor league lifers suddenly see significant September action. I'd wager the percentage of PAs for a particular batter against low quality "September callup" pitching is not meaningful, or at least not meaningfully different than other months. (With expanded bullpens, you might even wind up at a platoon disadvantage more often in September too.)

 

Like I posted upthread, if you really want reps for Buxton but you also want that extra year of control, play him in September, and then option him for 29 days to start 2019.

[DocBauer]

In my own dense little head, I was considering the entire Buxton issue the past few days before this article was written, though without the service time idea.

 

The service time idea has merit, though you can argue if fair or not. It's a reality in practicality as well as peactice, and as pointed out, in the CBA. One could make a sincere argument, and business argument, that "fair" would include the Twins gaining the extra year of control of a talented young player who has simply not performed to expected levels to this point, whether through injury or actual performance when healthy. Taking emotion out of the equation...was he rushed, the injuries not his fault, was he rushed back, we all want him to succeed, etc...from Aa practical standpoint, it makes sense. And IMO, a grievance would be hard to justify consider injuries and performance vs an argument by the Twins as to the "best interest" in regard to Buxton himself, and his potential career. In other words, finish at Rochester, spend some time in instructionals, get healthy, and re-ser for 2019.

 

And isn't that what really is most important here? What's best for Byron going forward? How js he and his career best served? And i think a strong arguement could be made for what i previously stated, finish at Rochester, go the instructional league...maybe consider winter ball...and work on health, pitch recognition, and a swing and approach at the plate that works. Based on pure ability alone, if he could avoid bad pitch recognition, and just make better decisions/contact, said natural ability should produce some pretty nice numbers, even as he continues to figure stuff out.

 

That being said, Buxton just being an average hitter, with natural power and speed, from ownership on down, I think they would gladly give up the extra year of control if a crystal ball could see a .250-.260 BA and OB% in the .320's with 30+ doubles, HR in the teens with 7-8 triples and 30 SB in 2019. An "average" hitting Buxton, healthy, could/should produce that.

 

I think the debate turns a bit moot if his final 3 weeks at Rochester are poor.

 

But again, I have to ask, what's best for Byron and his career? Not just for him, but for the Twins? IMO, a solid 3 weeks at Rochester, you bring him up to play and work with Rowson some more. Then you send him to instructional league to continue to work and make up for lost time. Then, while can continue to work off a "T" and further condition himself, you "shut him down" from winter league and just get ready for next season.

 

I hate to do anything to curtail Buxton's amazing defensive ability, but it seems the wall crashes may be the biggest problem. Different sport, but as I have referenced before, I think back to Robert Smith of the Vikings and his early career when he seemed snake-bit from injury. HOF RB Tony Dorsett explained to him the team needed him for the whole season, and sometimes going down, or out of bounds, instead of fighting for that extra yard, was more important. His career skyrocketed after that. A physical build-up, as has been suggested, may be a great idea! But maybe, just maybe, a hold up or two here or there could be smart for Buck, and the Twins. Just an added thought.

[jorgenswest]

My mistake bringing in my preference for Wade and Austin. I retract. It is only a distraction.

 

I don’t believe there is nearly as much value in a month of September at bats versus his value next April much less an extra full year at the end.

 

Could the difference be that I believe Buxton will be a very valuable player in that extra year and you believe the September at bats are critical to any possibility of future success?

 

If that’s the case, we disagree. I don’t think the at bats are very valuable but I get your point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In the two seaons before Soler’s 36 OPS+, he posted 99 and 103. Both higher than Buxton at his best. By the way, Buxton’s OPS+ is 5 this year. 5.

 

They may settle somewhere, but I’d be surprised if the Twins submit a figure over $1 mil. He has been beyond terrible when he has played. He hasn’t played much. And his offense has been below league average - most of the time WAY below - his entire career.

 

IMO, a good comp for Buxton right now is Peter Bourjos at the time of his first arb go around. Bourjos had one season with an oWAR of 3.9. Other than that, pretty bad, but always above zero (Buxton has had TWO negative oWAR seasons). However, Bourjos had 3 seasons with a dWAR of .9 or better. Buxton so far has had just one.

 

Bourjos received $1.2 mil just 4 years ago. IMO just as elite a defender who was slightly better offensively.

You started this tangent by saying "I’d be surprised if it was $1 mil" and now you are saying a good comp got $1.2 mil, 4 years ago. (Actually 5 seasons/offseasons ago -- Bourjos got that award after 2013, Buxton will get his after 2018.) Even if you think he is slightly worse than Bourjos, that sounds like you think he'll get a million. FWIW, Bourjos and the Cards settled at $1.2 mil, and included $150k in PA incentives, so the actual value of the deal was a tick higher.

 

Another oddity with Bourjos is that the Angels made him a bench player for a full season AFTER his big year -- 101 games, only 195 PA. Bench players are a lower salary class than starters, and I'm guessing that gave the Cardinals some leverage in arbitration, not unlike how an injury or AAA demotion might affect a starter like Buxton (perhaps not as much, but offsetting some).

 

Also, 5 years is a long time. It is quite possible that Bourjos did not have enough defensive data available to fully convince an arbitrator of his defensive value -- Statcast didn't even come around until 2015. Buxton will be able to point to a stronger correlation between defensive metrics and higher salaries. Bourjos didn't have a gold glove like Buxton either, for a more traditional defensive value argument.

 

Soler's 100 OPS+ over 2015-2016 is not that much better than Buxton's 92 over 2016-2017. And it is more than offset by baserunning and defense. And there's a point of diminishing returns to a bad OPS+ -- in similar playing time (or lack thereof), a guy with a 36 isn't going to be considered appreciably better than a guy with a 5. They're both just bad.

 

None of this is to say Buxton will get $2 mil. I've conceded my potential $2 mil guess (which was just that, a guess) was likely too high. But $1 mil seems like the floor here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t believe there is nearly as much value in a month of September at bats versus his value next April much less an extra full year at the end.

 

Could the difference be that I believe Buxton will be a very valuable player in that extra year and you believe the September at bats are critical to any possibility of future success?

 

If that’s the case, we disagree. I don’t think the at bats are very valuable but I get your point.

No, that's not really my position.

 

Let me put it this way: will you be comfortable, after your shutdown, of penciling Buxton in as your opening day CF in 2019?

 

If not, then why bother shutting him down? You still have an option for 2019, you can use it and achieve the same goal (extra year of control) before May 1st.

 

If yes, then that sounds pretty reckless, both from a player and a team perspective. With the performance challenges he already had, plus basically the lost season, it seems highly questionable to take away his last shot at healthy* high-level reps before the offseason and opening day 2019, replace them with instructs, and throw him back into the fire at the first opportunity and just expect it is all going to work out somehow.

 

I am not saying his September 2018 MLB stats will be super-meaningful, or critical to any chance of future success. All I am saying is that it's an opportunity for him to finally play and I don't see a compelling reason to just skip it. The extra year of control is not exclusive to the shut down plan. If anything, we should plan to option him in 2019 regardless. But he needs to play when possible.

 

* And we should be able assume he is healthy, by any reasonable definition. Even if they want to give him extra days off (and there is still plenty of time to slowly adjust that this season, if we so desire). If he's not healthy, he shouldn't be playing anywhere right now.

 

Obviously if he get hurt again, or he really struggles at Rochester, you can change course. If he needs to be rebuilt in Ft Myers like Sano, then so be it. (But if you think that today, then he should be in Ft Myers today, nothing gained by waiting.)