Article: What To Do With Byron Buxton?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bring him up in September, and offer a team-friendly extension in the off-season. Now is the time to buy low on Buxton.

I don't think Buxton has any incentive to sign anything at this point that doesn't still present significant risk for the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think Buxton has any incentive to sign anything at this point that doesn't still present significant risk for the Twins.

Yeah, one healthy, good year from Buxton could mean $30m in extension money. There's little reason not to take that relatively small risk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

idk, the presumed reason to shut a pitcher down is to prevent injury, right? Pretty much everyone in this thread has said that is definitely part of the reason to shut Byron down.

Well, that's far easier to justify in modern MLB with a pitcher. You can even send them down just to control their innings. For a pitcher, you're trying to avoid the bright line of surgery which has longer-term benefits. For a position player, are you really avoiding anything other than them getting hurt that month?

 

But absolutely, if there is any specific concern about Buxton's health (presumably the wrist at this point), you could shut him down. But in that case, I'm not sure you'd risk playing him at AAA for 3 weeks right now either.

[zenser]

If the team decided that they didnt want to call him up or be a September call up, is there anything to say he cant be in Minnesota working with Rowson as opposed to working in Ft Myers?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the team decided that they didnt want to call him up or be a September call up, is there anything to say he cant be in Minnesota working with Rowson as opposed to working in Ft Myers?

With expanded rosters, this would probably only make a grievance more inevitable or perhaps even winnable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe a good compromise would be to call him up, but as a part-time player or sometimes DH.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He wouldn't be the first guy in all of baseball who got sent home in September.

Among healthy position players with MLB experience on the 40-man roster, there aren't many that get sent home in September.

 

Dozier in 2012, Hicks in 2013. Both of those guys were rookies, though, and weren't hitting at AAA either.

 

Jorge Polanco in 2014-2015, but he had only been an "emergency" callup those seasons. -- not much AAA action yet. He also played winter ball that offseason.

 

If Buxton can hit well and stay healthy the next few weeks, he will have a stronger case for a September recall than any of these guys. Albeit maybe not strong enough to win a grievance, but maybe that's not the best criteria for the Twins to use either.

[Aerodeliria]

It's enjoyable reading this tug-o-war. I would opt not to bring him up to give Cave a little more playing time. He seems to be getting comfortable out there. In fact, he made the MLB best plays of the week (we get to see it here in Japan...I'm not even sure who produces this...is it only for Japan...I doubt it). I think he's played well enough to be considered more than a place-holder...although he could DH, I guess.

 

In addition, who knows if Buxton can even stay healthy once he comes up? The reward is not worth the risk to me. The Twins can do a reset in 2019.

 

That's my two-yen's worth (actually less than two cents...).

[Thrylos]

Rochester, then instructs, and then winter baseball.   He needs to see live pitching.

 

Oh. And a $1000 fine for each hands first slide

[Mike Sixel]

 

I was at the game last night in Columbus. What's missing in this deabate and the recent bias toward a 3 for 5, 4 RBI (no k's) night was Buxton's ordinarily spectacular fielding. He ran down a drive to deep left-center that would have scored two and kept Gonsalves' ERA over 3. Bring him up in September, and offer a team-friendly extension in the off-season. Now is the time to buy low on Buxton. BTW: Huntington Park is awesome!

 

Why would he take a team friendly deal? He's already a millionaire, he can bet on himself.

[jkcarew]

I guess the question is, how many major-league at-bats do you sacrifice to get the extra year of control?

 

For my money, I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice many at all.  Buxton doesn't know how to hit major league pitching, and until that is figured out, the extra year of control doesn't have much value.

 

First things first.  He needs reps at hitting.  After that, he needs more reps at hitting.  And I'll hope that we even care about his service time down the road.

[beckmt]

Bigger issue would be the perception that Buxton's camp might have if he is doing well in AAA.  

Don't call him up and give you control until 2022, and you risk his camp telling you if he goes very well during 2019-2020 that he will not be extending with you, so trade him now to a club the will appreciate him or walk away for a comp pick after 2022.  And you would have to do it offseason 2020 to get any good value or as we have seen every day after that the players value goes down.

[USAFChief]

Why would he take a team friendly deal? He's already a millionaire, he can bet on himself.

after taxes and agent fees and expenses, hes probably got a couple million in the bank. But that's not going to set up a 20 something for a lifetime of luxury. I think an extension, with say 25 million guaranteed, would be very tempting. And not all that risky for the Twins.

 

As for now, get him back up to MN.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

after taxes and agent fees and expenses, hes probably got a couple million in the bank. But that's not going to set up a 20 something for a lifetime of luxury. I think an extension, with say 25 million guaranteed, would be very tempting. And not all that risky for the Twins.

Buxton is probably guaranteed a decent amount this winter in arbitration ($2 mil, perhaps?). That's pretty much his baseline for the next few years too, even if he doesn't get healthy or produce -- someone will keep betting on that potential through a few arb seasons in his mid-20's.

 

If he's in any way useful during that time, he's probably going to get $25 mil. Trevor Plouffe got $19.65 million through 4 arbitration seasons.

[Loosey]

I don't think anything the Twins do at this point should be related to service time and control.  If he can't hit MLB pitching service time won't matter.  Even if the he develops over the next 3 seasons I can't imagine he will become a player the Twins can't afford.  Unfortunately, the more likely outcome will be the Twins will not sign him when he becomes a Free Agent because he isn't good enough.

 

I think of myself as a big Buxton supporter and I hope he rakes at Rochester over the next 10 days or so and gets himself back up to Minnesota to get a solid month of at bats against major league pitching.

 

The Mike Trout comparison days are long-gone.  I will take Kenny Lofton-lite.

[laloesch]

So far tonight he's 3 for 5 with a HR and 4 RBI....He keeps hitting like that for a few weeks and he'll be called up to finish the season with the Twins.

That's fine and all but he's done this before, performed well in AAA only to play poorly upon getting promoted. Maybe this time it will be different maybe not. Sometimes prospects just don't ever make it in the majors despite all the hype, despite being a high draft pick. They are called busts. Not saying Buxton is that.....yet. I think they need to really send a message home to him and send him to Fort Myers after Rochester finishes it season with clear instructions. Get stronger physically and spend a lot of time working on your hitting and pitch recognition.

Edited August 22, 2018 by Carole Keller

[laloesch]

 

As for now, get him back up to MN.

 

That's fine but Jake Cave deserves the starting job the rest of the season though. Byron needs to get his head in the right place and really work on plate discipline and pitch recognition.  

[BD57]

Started in the "bring him up, don't sew the seeds of ill-will" camp.

 

Then started reading the comments .... and I've changed my mind.

 

Send him home and get him healthy.   Preserve the potential leverage of another year of team control.

 

That's all it is at this point - "potential leverage."

 

If Buxton doesn't improve his offensive numbers, having another year of "team control" isn't going to be all that valuable, and if he does, then we can at least have a conversation with him, at the time, about how we're going to deal with it all going forward.

 

Because, after all, one of the options we'd have is to give him a contract "then" which compensates him well, regardless of the "team control."

 

The FO has no obligation to "give away" any leverage it might have under the CBA, no more than any individual player has an obligation to give away any leverage the CBA grants him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Send him home and get him healthy.

I assume he's healthy now, or he wouldn't be playing at AAA. (At least, I hope we're not rushing him back again!)

 

So let's be clear: he doesn't need to be shut down to "get" healthy, or this would be an easy decision. He should be able to "stay" healthy with a shutdown... but only for as long as you are willing to shut him down.

[Riverbrian]

 

All of those guys had service time manipulation at the very beginning of their careers. If you have never promoted a player to your MLB roster before, you can pretty much always find a justification for keeping them in the minors. And the player can't do much about it, because he is not even in the MLBPA yet -- he is not the union's primary concern.

Not so with a player like Buxton. The Twins have promoted him to MLB several times already. To skip out on a promotion after the minor league season ends, the Twins would need a reasonably compelling reason, or they probably could expect Buxton and his union to file a grievance.

I expect the Twins could present such a reason, but if Buxton demonstrates health and good performance at AAA, it will be tougher. And it could be acrimonious.

 

Agreed but I'm sure not unprecedented. OPS+ 7 would probably suffice. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Why would he take a team friendly deal? He's already a millionaire, he can bet on himself.

 

Because he can't hit and is injury prone. He might like the security. One decent deal and he's set for life. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The FO has no obligation to "give away" any leverage it might have under the CBA, no more than any individual player has an obligation to give away any leverage the CBA grants him.

It's not just giving away leverage, though. It's also giving away our only chance to see him face major league competition until spring training 2019 (if not opening day 2019, depending on how you view spring training).

 

So you're also giving away a potentially important evaluation opportunity (do we need to acquire another outfielder this offseason? for how much?), and possibly a development opportunity too.

 

You can still get the same extra-year-of-control leverage after calling him up in September, if you option him for 29 days in 2019. Maybe that's the best plan, to maximize his opportunity?

[Riverbrian]

 

But it's kind of a catch-22.

 

On one hand, 2018 is indeed lost, so perhaps there's no sense wasting service time in 2018.

 

But if 2019 is important, you want the player ready on opening day if at all possible, so maybe September 2018 isn't really a "waste" of service time after all.

 

With an option remaining for 2019, I'm increasingly thinking that it might be a win-win to promote him this September (assuming he's healthy and performing in Rochester, of course). Either it benefits him toward becoming a good MLB hitter again by opening day 2019, in which case we'll all be very thankful given the alternative. Or if it doesn't, he will probably need 29 days in the minors next year anyway.

 

Agreed

 

I'm OK with a May call up next year. I prefer shutting him down this year but am OK with that strategy as well. 

 

All in all... I want the year back. However the club gets there. I'm alright. 

 

 

 

 

[Kelly Vance]

Buck is our starting CFer. He is a platinum glove winner and last year he actually hit close to .300 near the end of the season. I thought he had figured out a lot of stuff, but the injury made him over swing to show he was still good... even though he wasn't.  Same with Sano.

 

When he is ready to resume his role he gets called up.... control and arbitration considerations be damned. I'd tell him we want him long term and offer him an extension. The way to engender a player's loyalty is to be loyal to them. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I think an important factor that none of us will ever know, and will be up to the FO and coaches to weigh, is Buxton's mental state.  Is he completely frazzled after a frustrating season and straining/pushing himself trying to break through?  If so, maybe it'd be better to not call him up, and actually tell him to disappear somewhere warm and tropical for the month of September and don't touch a baseball or bat while you're gone.  Get physically healthy, clear your head, and we'll see you for offseason workouts in a month and you better be ready to work hard.

 

Sure... I'll go with this as well. Whatever gets me that year back. 

[TheLeviathan]

If you are going to blame Buxton's hitting issues on injury, then you need to examine that issue and not use it as an excuse.  He's hurt all the time.  This wasn't one injury that derailed this one season.  He's largely been a bad hitter and frequently been hurt.  The two might be entwined, but even by themselves both are serious problems.

 

I'd like to see him on a regiment to strengthen his durability and resilience.  I don't want to see him again this year and risk his brittle physique taking another injury that derails his readiness for next year.  

[Jham]

It's not just giving away leverage, though. It's also giving away our only chance to see him face major league competition until spring training 2019 (if not opening day 2019, depending on how you view spring training).

 

So you're also giving away a potentially important evaluation opportunity (do we need to acquire another outfielder this offseason? for how much?), and possibly a development opportunity too.

 

You can still get the same extra-year-of-control leverage after calling him up in September, if you option him for 29 days in 2019. Maybe that's the best plan, to maximize his opportunity?

Of course, you can't be optioned off the disabled list. This is Byron Buxton we're talking about after all...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Of course, you can't be optioned off the disabled list. This is Byron Buxton we're talking about after all...

True, but close. Buxton and May were both optioned directly from rehab stints this summer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd like to see him on a regiment to strengthen his durability and resilience. I don't want to see him again this year and risk his brittle physique taking another injury that derails his readiness for next year.

I get that, but it's not so simple. I mean, his injuries this year were migraines, a broken toe from a foul ball, and a wrist sprain. I'm not an "exercise" kind of guy but I don't know what you can do about those first two. And the last one, he had a similar wrist issue going into last September, and wound up with a solid .790 OPS that month.

 

I have no idea what his offseason regimen was last year, but if you are willing to play him for 3 weeks at AAA right now, health-wise I don't see why you shouldn't be willing to play him for 4 weeks in MLB after that.

[Major League Ready]

Both sides have made compelling points in this debate. I don't see the FO giving up the year of control but it would be hard to justify if he rakes the remainder of the month. I would consider going to Buxton and his agent and offering to buyout his arbitration years while adding an option year or two with the stipulation he is brought back this year. Of course, there are other potential terms that fit into a similar scenario. It accomplishes the goal of extending control while avoiding the potential pitfalls listed within this thread.

 

The question would become should the Twins take this chance. There is obviously some risk because he looked dreadful at the plate. Having said this, the Twins need to be creative in retaining talent so maybe this is a risk that makes sense.

Edited August 15, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready