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Article: MIN 6, KC 5: Cave Slugs Grand Slam as Twins Sweep Royals

Tom Froemming
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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Administrator
Posted
Posted

 

We were pretty bad offensively prior to the deadline and therefore hard to not improve. 

 

Almost anyone was going to improve over the output that Buxton produced. 

 

Sano being a decent player since returning from Ft. Myers is like getting a new player with talent.  

 

Polanco coming back and playing well is like getting a new player with talent. 

 

It would be difficult for Morrison to get worse or stay at the very disappointing pre-deadline level. 

 

And even if Brian Dozier is about to go nuts for the Dodgers... He didn't go nuts for us. So it's not like we lost much from the first half production that Dozier provided. 

 

There are times in baseball history where sellers become better after selling and the reason for this is the reason they ended up being sellers in the first place. 

Yep. I actually expected this team to be better after the deadline happened.

 

Not that they'd be good, but they'd be better.

 

My goal for the current team is to end up in the 77-80 win range. It's not a lofty goal considering their cupcake schedule.

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yarnivek1972 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

yarnivek1972

Verified Member
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Why? It weights late innings over early innings (as it should, as that's the point of the metric) and Rodney faced the top of the Royals order with a one run lead.

He gave up two hits and a walk. If Merrifield doesn’t try to steal - something Rodney had no control over - odds are he coughs up the lead.

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Tom Froemming All-Star

Tom Froemming

Twins Daily Staff
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He gave up two hits and a walk. If Merrifield doesn’t try to steal - something Rodney had no control over - odds are he coughs up the lead.

I was just having a laugh earlier with the whole disable comments thing :)

 

Yes, the biggest downfall of WPA is everything that happens in the field is credited toward the pitcher. WPA cannot account for defense in any way. Sometimes that's good for the pitcher, sometimes it's bad. WPA is not perfect, but I think it's a fun stat to reference in regards to individual games like this, and it's especially nice because you can use it for both hitters and pitchers.

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Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Community Leader
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I was just having a laugh earlier with the whole disable comments thing :)

 

Yes, the biggest downfall of WPA is everything that happens in the field is credited toward the pitcher. WPA cannot account for defense in any way. Sometimes that's good for the pitcher, sometimes it's bad. WPA is not perfect, but I think it's a fun stat to reference in regards to individual games like this, and it's especially nice because you can use it for both hitters and pitchers.

Yup. WPA is a story stat. Not unlike pitcher wins/losses, RBIs, etc. A player's WPA is highly context dependent -- as Fangraphs says, "A player with a high leverage index may have a higher WPA simply because they happened to come up more often when the game was on the line." (Same applies to pitchers who happened to pitch more often when the game was on the line.)

 

If you want to use WPA beyond telling the story of a game, to compare two players by WPA, you would want to divide by Leverage Index. See here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa-li/

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Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Leader
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Lol. It's like they're actively trying to annoy the fanbase.

And if this were a young guy, Molitor wouldn't play him anyway. But it's an older guy ... he'll be in the lineup today or tomorrow, is my guess.

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Vanimal46 MVP

Vanimal46

Old-Timey Member
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Oh, why did I think Field was 31? Okay then ... I stand corrected. Thank you. But given his age, maybe Molitor won't play him, either. ;)

Too many unfamiliar names around this team lately... I also thought he was old but that's the RP Drake. Hell, I thought he was Tommy Field earlier today.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
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I'm old. I get confused easily. Being young at heart still doesn't help my mind. :)

 

eat more dessert, I hear it is good for you*

 

*not actually true, mostly, but sort of, if you consider being happy good....as long as you are really happy.

**

 

**practicing to be a lawyer someday. Or not. Probably not. But just in case.

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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OK. If Rodney had the second best WPA for the Twins today, it doesn’t say much for the value of that stat.

In fairness, Fernando Rodney brings a different definition of the phrase "win probability" to any game.

 

When I was down the left-field line at Fenway for his "save" a week ago, I was literally LOLing at every new twist in the road during that inning, as the home crowd cheered louder and louder. I enjoyed it, in about the darkest way possible. "Had 'em, all the way!"

 

And then of course the next night he promptly served up the homer to tie the game. He'll astound you in a new way just when you think you've got him pegged. Truly enjoyable, once you get the knack.

 

Every stat has an outlier player. No stat can truly contain Rodney. He defies WPA completely.

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