Article: Derek Falvey Discusses Returns, Future

[TL]

Things haven't worked like anyone hoped or wanted this season, but take a step back, and look at the franchise as a whole. MLB Pipeline, FWIW, put the Twins in their recent overview of top 10 milb systems after not ranking them before the season started. This is based on what we have, and what we just acquired. Yes, we have issues and frustrations with what has happened. But if you step back for a second And see a roster with the talent and potential of Sano, Polanco, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Gibson and maybe even Garver, tell me most people wouldn't be pretty excited to have this group to work with, promote/trade from the system, and augment with some smart signings.

 

I’m loving the young and talented MLB team with a very strong pipeline of prospects at virtually every position. We need a couple more guys to break out and become all stars, and several have that ability. I’m not against making a splash in free agency either given low ‘19 payroll and fact that minors will replenish the team with minimum salary guys over next few years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

C'mon. Lynn and Morrison weren’t the bargain bin. How long have you been a Twins fan? Rondell White was bargain bin. Tony Bautista was bargain bin. Juan Castro was bargain bin.

 

White was maybe close. The year before we signed him, 14 Rbat in 400 PA, compared to Morrison's 22 in 601. For projected DHs, they are about the same. Morrison had more health and was a few years younger, but White had much more of a track record.

 

The other names I won't dispute. You could add the holy trinity of Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, and Sidney Ponson on the pitching side of the ledger. (Although the old Twins did also acquire/re-sign Pavano, who was probably a fair comp for Lynn.)

[terrydactyls]

There have been several comments urging the front office to add players through free agency. So I went to Spotrak.com and found the 2019 list of free agents as of today. I sorted the position players by OPS and the pitchers by Wins/Saves. Here are the top players by position (age is in parentheses). For position players, I've listed those near or above .800 (plus Mauer). For starting pitchers, I chose 6 wins or more and for relief pitchers, I chose 10 saves or more.

 

POSITION PLAYERS

1B Matt Adams (30) .889

1B Joe Mauer (36) .726

2B Daniel Descalso (32) .849

2B Jed Lowrie (35) .820

2B Asdrubal Cabrera (35) .790

3B Mark Reynolds (35) .909

3B Eduardo Escobar (30) .847

SS Manny Machado (26) .935

LF Steven Pearce (36) .992

LF Michael Brantley (32) .805

CF AJ Pollack (31) .916

CF Bryce Harper (26) .869

RF Nick Markakis (35) .867

RF Lonnie Chisenhall (30).846

RF Carlos Gonzalez (33) .845

C Yasmani Grandal (30) .862

C Wilson Ramos (31) .834

DH Nelson Cruz (38) .903

DH Evan Gattis (32) .808

 

STARTING PITCHERS

SP Charlie Morton (35) 12

SP JA Happ(36) 11

SP Dallas Keuchel (31) 9

SP Patrick Corbin (30) 8

SP Lance Lynn (32) 7

SP CC Sabathia (38) 6

SP Anibal Sanchez (35) 6

SP Yoyani Gallardo (33) 6

SP Tyson Ross (32) 6

SP Gio Gonzalez (33) 6

SP Brandon McCarthy (35) 6

 

RELIEF PITCHERS

RP Craig Kimbral (31) 33

RP Cody Allen (30) 21

RP Bud Norris (34) 20

RP Jeurys Familia (29) 17

RP Sergio Romo (36) 13

RP Brad Brach (33) 11

RP Brad Ziegler (39) 10

 

This is not a very impressive list from which to choose from. My bet is that the Dodgers lock up Machado before he hits the open market. That leaves Harper as the only real "game changer" and from what I've read about his attitude, I'm not sure I want the Twins going after him.

 

***I had this in a nice table format before I hit Post. I don't know what happened.

 

*** And now it looks nice. Go Figure.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Ramos, Adams, Cruz, and Escobar would be a pretty good haul. Most would be reasonably priced.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't think we'll see a 10 year contract ever again. If I were him I'd be looking for a 5-6 year deal to cash in at FA again at 31 years old.

And with the player opt outs it could be a contract as short as 2-3 years. Up to 5-6 years if he doesn't opt out.

Here's a very rough sketch of what I'm thinking:

Year 1: $60 million. The Twins have a ton of money to spend. Take advantage of the situation and give him a boat load up front.

Years 2-3: $30 million.

Years 4-?: $15-25 million with player opt outs every year.

So he gets a guaranteed $120 million the first 3 years of his contract. After that, if he's still awesome, he could opt out and renegotiate. Or go somewhere else. It wouldn't really matter at that point because the Twins got him for his age 26-29 seasons.

 

I like the creativity but I seriously doubt he takes a contract for half of what he can get guaranteed. That's a lot of money to put at risk. Having said this ... I would endorse making such an offer, WCS he turns it down.

[jimmer]

I’m loving the young and talented MLB team with a very strong pipeline of prospects at virtually every position.

yeah, the Astros are fun to watch

[Major League Ready]

 

Ramos, Adams, Cruz, and Escobar would be a pretty good haul. Most would be reasonably priced.

 

Ramos - Not if Garver continues to produce offensively at the same rate as Ramos. Garver has upside and I just don't like guys who can no longer run and plug up the bases.

 

Adams - Having his best year but probably won't break 2 WAR and 2016-17 combined for 1.7 WAR. Interesting player. I don't think he moves the needle. 

 

Cruz - Sign me up if he could produce for 2 more years at a 900 OPS but it is so unusual for someone to continue to produce at his age that I am reluctant. Plus, DHs without positional flexibility are a liability. I could go either way with this one.

 

Escobar - You bet and twice on Sunday!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Ramos - Not if Garver continues to produce offensively at the same rate as Ramos. Garver has upside and I just don't like guys who can no longer run and plug up the bases.

 

Adams - Having his best year but probably won't break 2 WAR and 2016-17 combined for 1.7 WAR. Interesting player. I don't think he moves the needle. 

 

Cruz - Sign me up if he could produce for 2 more years at a 900 OPS but it is so unusual for someone to continue to produce at his age that I am reluctant. Plus, DHs without positional flexibility are a liability. I could go either way with this one.

 

Escobar - You bet and twice on Sunday!

 

With ramos, I'm operating under the assumption that Castro is done. Even in that scenario, a Ramos/Garver combo would be pretty nice.

 

Adams should be cheap, and 2 WAR or not, he's a huge upgrade over Mauer right now... or really anyone we'd be throwing at first. 

 

Cruz is going to sign a 1 or 2 year deal. Might be high salary, but a 1 year deal with an option would be great...

 

My point is that with the exception of Ramos, those four won't be that expensive, and they upgrade us where we need upgrading. Combine those 4 with Polanco, Sano, Rosario, and Kepler, and you have a pretty good offense. 

[Major League Ready]

 

With ramos, I'm operating under the assumption that Castro is done. Even in that scenario, a Ramos/Garver combo would be pretty nice.

 

Adams should be cheap, and 2 WAR or not, he's a huge upgrade over Mauer right now... or really anyone we'd be throwing at first. 

 

Cruz is going to sign a 1 or 2 year deal. Might be high salary, but a 1 year deal with an option would be great...

 

My point is that with the exception of Ramos, those four won't be that expensive, and they upgrade us where we need upgrading. Combine those 4 with Polanco, Sano, Rosario, and Kepler, and you have a pretty good offense. 

 

You make some good points. I did not realize Castro's injury made him questionable for next year. I suppose the Dodgers can afford Machado and Grandal.

 

If Cruz could be signed on a 1 year deal, I'm on board.

 

What about Justin Smoak? He was very good in 2017. Are the shifts getting him or is it the drop -off in hitters behind him in the line-up. Could Nelson Cruz still play 1st? He would be a great 1 year bridge to Rooker.

[ThejacKmp]

 

White was maybe close. The year before we signed him, 14 Rbat in 400 PA, compared to Morrison's 22 in 601. For projected DHs, they are about the same. Morrison had more health and was a few years younger, but White had much more of a track record.

The other names I won't dispute. You could add the holy trinity of Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, and Sidney Ponson on the pitching side of the ledger. (Although the old Twins did also acquire/re-sign Pavano, who was probably a fair comp for Lynn.)

 

Oh man, I forgot Sidney Ponson. That was bad.

[Squirrel]

 

You make some good points. I did not realize Castro's injury made him questionable for next year. I suppose the Dodgers can afford Machado and Grandal.

 

If Cruz could be signed on a 1 year deal, I'm on board.

 

What about Justin Smoak? He was very good in 2017. Are the shifts getting him or is it the drop -off in hitters behind him in the line-up. Could Nelson Cruz still play 1st? He would be a great 1 year bridge to Rooker.

But can they afford Machado, Grandal and Kershaw?

[Major League Ready]

 

But can they afford Machado, Grandal and Kershaw?

 

I don't see Kershaw's AAV going up much. He is at $35M/yr. I assumed his play would be to secure more years at roughly the same AAV. That would be smart on his part if he could add 2-3 years because the market has gone away from paying big in the post prime years. He will be 33 following his last year under his current contract.

 

Edited: I just looked at their payroll. Ryu and Kemp are both free agents as well. I would assume they go hard in on Ryu but use the 21.75M reduction from Kemp to fund other payroll needs. The key cost increase will probably be in arbitration cases but those are deep pockets.

 

If they do sign Grandal, I would like to find a way to trade for one of their two highly ranked catching prospects. That might take a 3rd team but that would be a great acquisition.

Edited August 4, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[yarnivek1972]

There have been several comments urging the front office to add players through free agency. So I went to Spotrak.com and found the 2019 list of free agents as of today. I sorted the position players by OPS and the pitchers by Wins/Saves. Here are the top players by position (age is in parentheses). For position players, I've listed those near or above .800 (plus Mauer). For starting pitchers, I chose 6 wins or more and for relief pitchers, I chose 10 saves or more.

 

POSITION PLAYERS

1B Matt Adams (30) .889

1B Joe Mauer (36) .726

2B Daniel Descalso (32) .849

2B Jed Lowrie (35) .820

2B Asdrubal Cabrera (35) .790

3B Mark Reynolds (35) .909

3B Eduardo Escobar (30) .847

SS Manny Machado (26) .935

LF Steven Pearce (36) .992

LF Michael Brantley (32) .805

CF AJ Pollack (31) .916

CF Bryce Harper (26) .869

RF Nick Markakis (35) .867

RF Lonnie Chisenhall (30).846

RF Carlos Gonzalez (33) .845

C Yasmani Grandal (30) .862

C Wilson Ramos (31) .834

DH Nelson Cruz (38) .903

DH Evan Gattis (32) .808

 

STARTING PITCHERS

SP Charlie Morton (35) 12

SP JA Happ(36) 11

SP Dallas Keuchel (31) 9

SP Patrick Corbin (30) 8

SP Lance Lynn (32) 7

SP CC Sabathia (38) 6

SP Anibal Sanchez (35) 6

SP Yoyani Gallardo (33) 6

SP Tyson Ross (32) 6

SP Gio Gonzalez (33) 6

SP Brandon McCarthy (35) 6

 

RELIEF PITCHERS

RP Craig Kimbral (31) 33

RP Cody Allen (30) 21

RP Bud Norris (34) 20

RP Jeurys Familia (29) 17

RP Sergio Romo (36) 13

RP Brad Brach (33) 11

RP Brad Ziegler (39) 10

 

This is not a very impressive list from which to choose from. My bet is that the Dodgers lock up Machado before he hits the open market. That leaves Harper as the only real "game changer" and from what I've read about his attitude, I'm not sure I want the Twins going after him.

 

***I had this in a nice table format before I hit Post. I don't know what happened.

 

*** And now it looks nice. Go Figure.

It left here fine. Something must have happened when it got to the transmitter...

[ND-Fan]

Lynn and Morrisson there was reason for them not to be signed and we have seen it this year in their performances. They were signed to one year deals not best thing for club house chemistry getting players not happy having to sign lower than expected one year contract and not with contending team after all was said and done. Second this young core is very close to being a bust for the Twins. Buxton looks to have career where he can't stay healthy and still hasn't learned to hit at big leagues. Sano career hangs in the balance but i just have feeling he can't sustain this life changing program i think his family and culture are to important to him so to change how he maintains himself and what important to him are so different than what MLB demands of its players.  I hope i am wrong but the next year is going to tell the story. Kepler i think is going to become all star player but i get feeling the Twins may part company for prospects before that happens. So if these players are not part of the core the twins become very weak team and dependent on farm system made up alot of very young talent still couple years from Majors. This could lead to couple of 100 loss seasons. They may have payroll flexibility but i am pretty sure your not going to sign top free Agent talent here when Minnesota can't show they can win. This talent wants to go to winners not team rebuilding. The problem with this Front Office has been they are not convinced of talent they have or had so they trying play both sides of the fence. Usually what happens is going down road for failure and rebuild proccess takes twice as long if you are still there. This is why i have little faith in this front office because either you believe in plan you start and try to make it work you can't be half committed because usually thats kind of performance you get from your players. Also way they have shuffled players back forth even when the player they have called up did everything you wanted  but they just wanted another fresh body doesn't create team moral or that they want to continue to play for this organization. I am afraid the word is out and alot of players are going to instruct thier agents to keep them away from the Twins. I believe this management team brought in has updated the Twins organization to analytics but I am not convinced that there are more to putting team together than just the numbers. Its intangibles and getting players believing in what your doing so far I don't think this has happened.