Article: Derek Falvey Discusses Returns, Future

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

I pretty much said the same thing.....but post after post on this site is saying the Twins are smart because they did not sign him at all, not because they offered only 5 years.

Strawman alert?

[yarnivek1972]

The only way they sign Kershaw or Harper or Machado is if Falvey hits them over the head with a bat and Levine forges their signature. Guys like that aren't going to sign with the Twins just like Lebron James doesn't sign with the Timberwolves, there are better places for them to ply their services. First we need to start winning, then (and only then) will top free agents seriously consider Minnesota.

Of course, there’s a school of thought that says some guys have egos big enough to think “this will be my team” and WHEN I lead them to a title, I will get the acolades. If Machado goes to (for example) New York or LA, other stars will overshadow him.

[ThejacKmp]

 

That's great for you but it's irrelevant to the conversation.

 

Reality is that the Twins made an offer, albeit low, and weren't successful. We shouldn't be praising them for avoiding an apparent mistake that they obviously had some intention to make. 

 

See but I think you're saying that it would have been a mistake. It would not have been. Five years $100 million is a reasonable price to pay for an elite pitcher if you're the twins. There's risk but the payoff is worth it.

 

I think the thing I say the most on this site is Joe Mauer is the best. And the second is that we need to review the process, not the results. Hindsight GMing is worthless and unfair. The Twins handled Darvish well this year, getting in when it made sense and backing out once it didn't.

[ThejacKmp]

 

They weren't huh? I guess I missed where they had interest around the league and the Twins were able to convince them to forego better deals to sign with them for 1 year and 1 year + a team option. 

 

"The market fell out on," i.e. bargain bin. 

 

They retained that illustrious payroll flexibility because nobody was willing to hand either of those guys a long term deal.

 

Yes. The Twins clearly came into last year saying that they didn’t have a lot of obvious long-term needs except for pitching. They were only going to multiple years for high-end relievers (Reed) or starters (Darvish). They were in on both of those markets but didn’t over-react when the market went outside their comfort. They instead pivoted to guys available on one-year deals and spent aggressively, knowing that they had money to spend in the short term and wanted to preserve long-term flexibility. That’s smart GMing – know your priorities, follow your limits, pursue value.

 

I said the market fell out on Lynn and Logan for long-term deals. The Twins swooped in and made competitive one-year deals (with a nice team option for Morrison if he did well, a great touch) that were in no way bargain shopping. The Twins signed guys who were in the top 10-20 free agents available. That’s a far cry from Rondell White, Tony Bautista, Rick Reed. I really think you must’ve only started watching the Twins the last five years if that’s your concept of shopping the bargain bin. The bargain bin are the guys who are two years past being productive. The guys who were in Japan a year ago. The guys who have been cut twice in the past three years.

 

If you think that Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison would be sitting at home waiting still if the Twins hadn’t scooted in, I don’t know what to say. You’re not living in reality. There was interest for both of them but the Twins moved quickly to make competitive offers financially and PT-wise in an environment with a reasonable chance of competing (which is important to FA who want more exposure).

[Doomtints]

 

That's great for you but it's irrelevant to the conversation.

 

Reality is that the Twins made an offer, albeit low, and weren't successful. We shouldn't be praising them for avoiding an apparent mistake that they obviously had some intention to make. 

 

Who was praising them?

[ThejacKmp]

 

I pretty much said the same thing.....but post after post on this site is saying the Twins are smart because they did not sign him at all, not because they offered only 5 years.

 

Yeah, they're lucky they didn't sign him, not smart. The two aren't mutually exclusive. For instance, the Angels were smart to sign Ohtani. And if he never pitches again on this contract, they'll be unlucky (but not stupid since they paid so little. Maybe a bad example. Oh well.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, they're lucky they didn't sign him, not smart. The two aren't mutually exclusive. For instance, the Angels were smart to sign Ohtani. And if he never pitches again on this contract, they'll be unlucky (but not stupid since they paid so little. Maybe a bad example. Oh well.)

 

agreed. Just another example of how important luck, and things out of our control are, to success and failure at work.

[Vanimal46]

Concur. I’m about at the end of my rope with this team. I worry, though, when the GM says there’s financial flexibility to be creative. To me ... creative ... isn’t about an obvious move (Machado). But ... can’t complain about what hasn’t happened yet. But I’ll be highly critical if it’s too far short of expectations.

I hope there's room in the budget for both the obvious (Machado) and creative solutions.

 

I think we both agree this team needs star power. Machado fits the bill! Creative ways to lure him to Minnesota:

 

- Front loading the hell out of his contract where he sees a majority of it upfront.

 

- Give him opt outs every season after year 3 of the contract. That way if this team crashes and burns, he can get out of here.

 

- Give him the Bobby Bonilla contract and defer payments to him well beyond his playing career.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I hope there's room in the budget for both the obvious (Machado) and creative solutions.

I think we both agree this team needs star power. Machado fits the bill! Creative ways to lure him to Minnesota:

- Front loading the hell out of his contract where he sees a majority of it upfront.

- Give him opt outs every season after year 3 of the contract. That way if this team crashes and burns, he can get out of here.

- Give him the Bobby Bonilla contract and defer payments to him well beyond his playing career.

 

Man, I hope people don't really think the Twins are going to get Machado. Some big market team is going to give him 10-12 years and the Twins can't afford that. Big market teams can have $30 mill+ per year on one guy for that long and take the potential for 3-4 bad years at the end but small market teams can't. Anything the Twins offer (he won't be interested in the Bonilla thing, he's too young for that to matter), bigger market teams will match and exceed.

 

If the Twins sign Machado for 10 years I'll be super worried. They'll have to be the highest bidder and that's punching out of their class. That's a lot riding on one guy not getting a lingering injury.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Man, I hope people don't really think the Twins are going to get Machado. Some big market team is going to give him 10-12 years and the Twins can't afford that. Big market teams can have $30 mill+ per year on one guy for that long and take the potential for 3-4 bad years at the end but small market teams can't. Anything the Twins offer (he won't be interested in the Bonilla thing, he's too young for that to matter), bigger market teams will match and exceed.

 

If the Twins sign Machado for 10 years I'll be super worried. They'll have to be the highest bidder and that's punching out of their class. That's a lot riding on one guy not getting a lingering injury.

 

I agree that they won't, and I think I agree they shouldn't....but I'm not sure.

 

That said, if they don't sign someone to huge dollars, I have no idea where the money is going next year. There are't that many FAs that are better than what the Twins have.

[Vanimal46]

Man, I hope people don't really think the Twins are going to get Machado. Some big market team is going to give him 10-12 years and the Twins can't afford that. Big market teams can have $30 mill+ per year on one guy for that long and take the potential for 3-4 bad years at the end but small market teams can't. Anything the Twins offer (he won't be interested in the Bonilla thing, he's too young for that to matter), bigger market teams will match and exceed.

 

If the Twins sign Machado for 10 years I'll be super worried. They'll have to be the highest bidder and that's punching out of their class. That's a lot riding on one guy not getting a lingering injury.

I don't think we'll see a 10 year contract ever again. If I were him I'd be looking for a 5-6 year deal to cash in at FA again at 31 years old.

 

And with the player opt outs it could be a contract as short as 2-3 years. Up to 5-6 years if he doesn't opt out.

 

Here's a very rough sketch of what I'm thinking:

 

Year 1: $60 million. The Twins have a ton of money to spend. Take advantage of the situation and give him a boat load up front.

 

Years 2-3: $30 million.

 

Years 4-?: $15-25 million with player opt outs every year.

 

So he gets a guaranteed $120 million the first 3 years of his contract. After that, if he's still awesome, he could opt out and renegotiate. Or go somewhere else. It wouldn't really matter at that point because the Twins got him for his age 26-29 seasons.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

They’re not the Royals. 

No sir, unfortunately they are not! 

 

We should be so lucky.

[mngopherguy]

the FO just loves prospects

What were they supposed to do? Not trade Dozier and Escobar and end up with nothing?

 

Our owners will never allow them to win FA wars, this is the only way.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I agree that they won't, and I think I agree they shouldn't....but I'm not sure.

 

That said, if they don't sign someone to huge dollars, I have no idea where the money is going next year. There are't that many FAs that are better than what the Twins have.

 

I think the question is, where are the gaps? I don’t know the market (someone else likely does) but looking at the Twins:

 

Every team can use starting pitching, the Twins are no exception.

 

The pen seems okay with a lot of young arms. I could see the Twins making a Reed signing but they aren’t going after the high-end types like Andrew Miller (although, Cleveland connection . . .) Seems more likely they do what they did this offseason with a few veterans. And that’s probably smart.

 

The outfield could potentially use someone but it’s hard to see who the Twins would get. Rosario, Buxton and Kepler seem likely to start the year and Cave, Wade, Austin and Rooker are in the mix as backups. It’s hard to sign an elite free agent unless you give them an everyday job. I guess the Twins could get a corner OF and shift Kepler to a 4th OF/backup 1B/DH type but that seems like giving up early on him as an OF. I’m not sure the Twins have a real OF need, though someone on a short-term high dollar contract could be doable.

 

Middle infield is a spot you could spend but it seems like more of a one-to-two-year situation with Gordon, Javier, Lewis, and Arraez coming up and Polanco already set. There’s no one for spring training next year but that seems unlikely to be true in September.

 

Catcher is intriguing but there’s rarely someone amazing on the FA market and with Garver and Castro, that’s a decision that can be kicked a year down the line probably (when you’ll know more about Rortvedt). Not an obvious spot to spend.

 

Third base is the one place the Twins could really spend on someone long-term. Sano is a bit of an unknown and isn’t a five year third baseman anyways and there’s no one pushing from the minors (though that MI depth could spill over to 3B if things work out well). But it’s a spot you could go get someone. Machado would work but he’s the premier free agent and will be hard to get. After that it’s Donaldson, Moustakas, Escobar etc. I’d love Escobar for three years to cover that 2B spot in 2019 and shift to 3B when a young ‘un is ready.

 

First base/DH is another spot you could spend but outside of Nelson Cruz, it’s slim pickings there. Seems the Twins would be best to use a mixture of bargain bin, Mauer, and young guys like Austin/Sano/Rooker at 1B.

 

So realistically, the only places the Twins have a need are 3B and starting pitching. Those are going to be interesting places to look.

 

P.S. I’d actually say that weird, I could see the Twins in on Harper more than Machado. He seems more likely to want something with an out after two years and that wouldn’t bother the Twins so much since they have OF depth coming up. If they’re willing to gamble with a big front-loaded two years . . .

Edited August 3, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't think we'll see a 10 year contract ever again. If I were him I'd be looking for a 5-6 year deal to cash in at FA again at 31 years old.

And with the player opt outs it could be a contract as short as 2-3 years. Up to 5-6 years if he doesn't opt out.

Here's a very rough sketch of what I'm thinking:

Year 1: $60 million. The Twins have a ton of money to spend. Take advantage of the situation and give him a boat load up front.

Years 2-3: $30 million.

Years 4-?: $15-25 million with player opt outs every year.

So he gets a guaranteed $120 million the first 3 years of his contract. After that, if he's still awesome, he could opt out and renegotiate. Or go somewhere else. It wouldn't really matter at that point because the Twins got him for his age 26-29 seasons.

 

Oh man. Come find me here when Machado signs a ten year deal. He's 26, someone is going to give him that. I like the creativity above but someone is going to give him $30-$35 million a year for ten years. And an opt out after year four. That deal is fun but it won't beat the big market teams. Guys like him don't hit the market at the age he did and after the seasons he's had.

 

Harper might not get that long of a deal but he'll still do well.

[rv78]

I laugh at you guys that think the Twins can't afford to be burdened with long-term contracts to top free agents that go beyond the expected productive years of those free agents.

 

If the front years of those contracts lead to a Twins Championship or 2 are we better off with that or would you rather continue with the current state of affairs of being a second rate team or worse, and never, or taking forever, to getting back to where this Team makes it's fans proud once again? 

 

I for one, would welcome a big dollar investment in a couple of top free agents if it gives the Team a chance to be truely competitive again, even if it means that for a few years afterwards we are dollars short of doing it again for a while. Isn't that why Target Field was built in the first place? To be competitive $$$ ???

[Vanimal46]

Oh man. Come find me here when Machado signs a ten year deal. He's 26, someone is going to give him that. I like the creativity above but someone is going to give him $30-$35 million a year for ten years. And an opt out after year four. That deal is fun but it won't beat the big market teams. Guys like him don't hit the market at the age he did and after the seasons he's had.

 

Harper might not get that long of a deal but he'll still do well.

It's possible he gets 10 years but very unlikely IMO. We have years and years of data showing long term deals are bad. Even for players like Machado entering FA at a young age.

 

I guess I'd like to know what's more important to him, security of a 10 year deal or opt outs to control his own destiny?

 

Edit: Also, it's going to be tough to beat out the New Yorks and LAs of the world, which is why I propose giving him $60 million upfront next season.

 

Realistic? Not sure. But I would like to see Star Tribune melt down talking about a player making $60 million

Edited August 3, 2018 by Vanimal46

[yarnivek1972]

No one is going to sign anyone to a ten year contract. Let’s get real.

[KirbyDome89]

 

See but I think you're saying that it would have been a mistake. It would not have been. Five years $100 million is a reasonable price to pay for an elite pitcher if you're the twins. There's risk but the payoff is worth it.

 

I think the thing I say the most on this site is Joe Mauer is the best. And the second is that we need to review the process, not the results. Hindsight GMing is worthless and unfair. The Twins handled Darvish well this year, getting in when it made sense and backing out once it didn't.

No, in fact I would've been on board with a better offer than what the Cubs gave him. I realize long term commitments are risky ect. but at some you have the take the plunge and it didn't look like the Twins were going to get an ace caliber pitcher anywhere else. Like I said, 5/100M would've been a steal, but if you really want player X sometimes you just have to pay sticker. 

 

This is where we disagree, I don't think they did either. Darvish was expected to sign for 6/150+M before FA began. I don't think they were ever truly on board with bringing him in, hence the low offer, and I don't think they every really backed out either because they did actually make an offer. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

What were they supposed to do? Not trade Dozier and Escobar and end up with nothing?

Our owners will never allow them to win FA wars, this is the only way.

Keep Escobar and Dozier and win more games in the stretch, maybe even make the race interesting, and most important, keep good will with the fan base.

 

The Lynn trade and a couple of those others could have still happened and we would still have had a couple prospects to show for it.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yes. The Twins clearly came into last year saying that they didn’t have a lot of obvious long-term needs except for pitching. They were only going to multiple years for high-end relievers (Reed) or starters (Darvish). They were in on both of those markets but didn’t over-react when the market went outside their comfort. They instead pivoted to guys available on one-year deals and spent aggressively, knowing that they had money to spend in the short term and wanted to preserve long-term flexibility. That’s smart GMing – know your priorities, follow your limits, pursue value.

 

I said the market fell out on Lynn and Logan for long-term deals. The Twins swooped in and made competitive one-year deals (with a nice team option for Morrison if he did well, a great touch) that were in no way bargain shopping. The Twins signed guys who were in the top 10-20 free agents available. That’s a far cry from Rondell White, Tony Bautista, Rick Reed. I really think you must’ve only started watching the Twins the last five years if that’s your concept of shopping the bargain bin. The bargain bin are the guys who are two years past being productive. The guys who were in Japan a year ago. The guys who have been cut twice in the past three years.

 

If you think that Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison would be sitting at home waiting still if the Twins hadn’t scooted in, I don’t know what to say. You’re not living in reality. There was interest for both of them but the Twins moved quickly to make competitive offers financially and PT-wise in an environment with a reasonable chance of competing (which is important to FA who want more exposure).

All these terms: "preserve long-term flexibility, pursue value, follow your limits," are a kind way of saying aim low. It's putting a positive spin on shopping in the bargain aisle. 

 

That 10-20 number is relative to the talent only in that FA class, and by all accounts it wasn't a particularly good one, which explains the slow winter. I appreciate your fascination with how long I've followed the Twins but feel free to chill on that subject. Yeah, I understand that they aren't Bautista level bad, that's never been the case I've made. If we're just going to hold Lynn and Morrison up against some of the worst signings in team history and clap because they weren't scraping the absolute bottom of the barrel then what are really doing? The fact that neither Lynn nor Morrison was Rondell White doesn't mean the signings weren't lower level. 

 

I never said they'd be at home, or that no other team showed any interest whatsoever. Stop with that. Sure, maybe the Twins did slightly overpay to get these guys on one year deals, but in your rush to pat this FO on the back for those signings you're completely ignoring why those players are able to be signed to those deals in the first place. 

Edited August 3, 2018 by KirbyDome89

[KirbyDome89]

 

Who was praising them?

Plenty of posts across different threads

[jimmer]

This organization was all messed up. It shouldn't surprise anyone this new FO hasn't been able to turn things completely around yet. Probably unreasonable to think they could have so quickly.

Edited August 3, 2018 by jimmer

[tbhysgb]

Thats why Im not bothered by anything this FO is doing, this organization was in terrible shape when they took over. These things take time. Theyre trying to build a consistent competitive team with a constant pipeline of prospects that can keep coming up. 

[drivlikejehu]

Anyone that thinks the Pohlads would allow the front office to bid competitively on Machado or Harper simply does not understand how things work, at all.

 

No legitimate analysis can proceed from false assumptions about how decisions are made within the organization.

[KirbyDome89]

 

This organization was all messed up. It shouldn't surprise anyone this new FO hasn't been able to turn things completely around yet. Probably unreasonable to think they could have so quickly.

I don't think anybody expected a complete 180 by this point, but I believe incremental improvement both on and off the field as well as a departure from old "habits," was a realistic expectation for this group. I think a large source of the frustration is the fact that we haven't seen much of either of those goals. 

[Riverbrian]

 

See but I think you're saying that it would have been a mistake. It would not have been. Five years $100 million is a reasonable price to pay for an elite pitcher if you're the twins. There's risk but the payoff is worth it.

 

I think the thing I say the most on this site is Joe Mauer is the best. And the second is that we need to review the process, not the results. Hindsight GMing is worthless and unfair. The Twins handled Darvish well this year, getting in when it made sense and backing out once it didn't.

 

I'm not so sure I agree that the Twins "handled Darvish well" but I agree with your overall point. 

 

If you want the player... You have to pay the price. It's how free agency works. It's really that simple. If you want the player, you got to get serious about it and go pay the price it takes.

 

You have to acknowledge the risk and that risk has to be baked into the process. Every team by now is fully aware of the possibility of large chunks of dead money on the payroll when you offer multi year deals and no GM is going to put all their eggs into a one free agent basket. The cost it took to sign Darvish is the cost you have to pay if you want Darvish. 

 

I wanted Darvish... I admit it and his season this year hasn't made me hide from that wish.  

[Rosterman]

2017 showed there might be a contention possibility, all depended on how Cleveland played the off-seson. To reach the Wild Card...wild thought. But the Twins did try to expand on the momentum of being in a weak divisiion without handcapping themselves by trading away prospects and, especially, locking into longterm contracts.

 

The division IS weak and Cleveland is running away in the division with a poor record. You can look back and say that is the Twins had Mejia instead of Lynn, would they be five wins to the better than now? If Ervin Santana wasn't out for nearly four months and just out for one, would they have done it?

 

Of course, no one predicted that EVERYONE would falter. Polanco gets suspended. Buxton and Sano get demoted. Dozier has holes in his bat. Kepler improves in one area and falls apart in tow others. They lose a veteran catcher. And Joe Mauer just contributes.

 

They made decent signings/trades/ Got a first-rate closer who also keeps games exxciting. Two setup guys. They added a started on a one-year deal and another in trade. They got a 1B/DH with some power. All brilliant and economical signings. So economical that we now question WHY did they bother to sign the guys themselves for a bargian because didn't they think there was a reason every other team was hemming and hawing about these guys.

 

We will now enter 2019 same as 2018. Same prospects hoping to make it big. Joe Mauer still there. The difference is that the aging vets will be gone and the choice needs to be mae to bring in another run of one-year lowballers, or just go with youth and what you can stuff in the cracks.

 

They can pretty much fill the 40-man with guys on the team and in the organization. Can they improve? Sure, you can spend money and improve every position. But this is also the time to start closely evaluating the farm system. You will be trading pieces this coming season, and more than likely the next year, in hopes of getting more than decent team controlled pieces to strength true weaknesses.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Been rather quiet as life has been busy as can be. But still read all the threads, and a lot of different opinions.

 

Here is mine.

 

The FO has truly been in charge for less than 2 years at this point. From the day they came on board, they spoke about building/re-building the entire system to one of sustainability. Never once has anyone claimed an answer to super quick turnaround that would lead to a championship.

 

2016 was an abhorrent mess! Possibly a blip, to some degree. 2017 was solid, quality baseball with a surge. We saw a lot of good things. And through the season, the FO had a tremendous draft, and made a few trades that were somewhat debatable but have been largely applauded for who they acquired. They also made a couple milb trades in the off season that seem to look pretty good. Debate Darvish all you will, and there are solid points on both sides of the aisle. But they did not "dumpster dive" with the aggressive moves they made for 2018. They made sound decisions, and were aggressive on the market like we haven't seen them be for a long time, or ever. Hey...for lots of reasons, it didn't work out.

 

I am NOT an apologist for the FO. I think they blew the Rochester roster this season and have made some questionable in season moves. But a great draft, a seemingly good draft, and most all of their off season moves were smart.

 

Things haven't worked like anyone hoped or wanted this season, but take a step back, and look at the franchise as a whole. MLB Pipeline, FWIW, put the Twins in their recent overview of top 10 milb systems after not ranking them before the season started. This is based on what we have, and what we just acquired. Yes, we have issues and frustrations with what has happened. But if you step back for a second And see a roster with the talent and potential of Sano, Polanco, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Gibson and maybe even Garver, tell me most people wouldn't be pretty excited to have this group to work with, promote/trade from the system, and augment with some smart signings.

 

Yes, of course, we need to see some of these guys be healthy and take the next step. Duh! But there is so much to work with here! And no, I don't expect the FO to fork out $50+M in FA contracts next off season. Do they really need to? If this nucleus can just re-set a bit, what you need is a few key pieces and promotions/auditions.

 

I don't like every move that has been made. I've seen some that make me want to pull my hair out! But doom and gloom at this point, even with a frustrating season, is a bit silly to me. There is an awful lot to be excited about when you look at what we have, what is near, and what is on the way.

 

That being said, HUGE moves or not, THIS off season will help define the FO on its trajectory.

[mngopherguy]

 

Keep Escobar and Dozier and win more games in the stretch, maybe even make the race interesting, and most important, keep good will with the fan base.

 

The Lynn trade and a couple of those others could have still happened and we would still have had a couple prospects to show for it.

 

So end up with nothing.  No thanks.