Article: Derek Falvey Discusses Returns, Future

[Parker Hageman]

The venerable Sid Hartman spoke with Derek Falvey following the flurry of moves at the trade deadline.

 

Obviously no baseball executive is going to say "we screwed up, we screwed up real bad, Sid" while banging their head on the desk, sobbing lightly into the sleeve of their favorite blazer in front of a live microphone. So it should go without saying that Falvey is currently happy with what the team acquired.

 

As far as we know.That being said, the Twins did land two arms that Falvey and company are excited about.

“I think the jewel of what we got back was the high-upside pitching,” he said. “I think that we’ve acquired at least two guys in these trades that we think have the chance to be upper-end starters in Jhoan Duran, who carried a no-hitter in Cedar Rapids into the seventh [Monday] who has real power stuff, and then Jorge Alcala, who is now one of our top prospects in terms of pitching at the Double-A level. Some impact, power arms. That’s what we’re going to need to compete with the best in the league.”

Pitching prospects are notoriously volatile and the attrition rate is high but it doesn't hurt to stockpile as many as you can. I mean, even Alcala was immediately placed on the DL with a tricep strain. Still, given their ages and radar readings, both Duran and Alcala are sexy AF right now. Until they are not. Remember when the Twins traded for Alex Meyer? So -- for now -- these arms are sexy.

 

In addition to the trades, Falvey was also pressed about the team's future, especially in light of the numerous expiring contracts, leaving the Twins with an estimated $30 million-to-$55 million coming off the payroll heading into 2019.

“With the blessing of the Pohlad family, we have had real opportunities in the free-agent market over the last year-plus,” Falvey said. “I anticipate with some of the expiring contracts that we have and the flexibility that we have around payroll, we’re going to be creative in this free-agent market and see what opportunities present.”

It's a non-answer answer but an obvious one. Will the Twins be active in the free agent market this offseason? Sure, why not? Will they target someone they want to sign to a long-term deal or will they try to piecemeal creative one-year deals with various options? Who knows?

 

The 2018 season was disappointing, yes. There were high expectations. Hell, I would have lost my house hammering the over on the Vegas-set 83-win mark had I followed through with my own proclamation. Now, based on Baseball Prospectus' current projections, the Twins are currently on a 76-win pace and even that feels like a best-case scenario going forward.

 

This does not mean 2019 will be a continuation of this dreck. The team still has a young, talented core albeit one that stumbled this season. Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton (when not hurt) and Miguel Sano (when properly conditioned and not hurt) are still a solid foundation. Find the right combination of bodies to add to that mix and you can have yourself a contender quickly.

 

For their part the front office is trying to build a sustainable model. The long-term goal means loading the system with potential impact players, putting the right development process in place, and begin cranking out guys who can contribute when the window closes on the current core. In the interim, depending on the expiring contract decision, the Twins have a base and flexibility to potentially reload as a contender for next season.

 

As you follow along with the development of the prospects as well as the team, remember, progress is never a straight line.

 

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[gocgo]

While we've got a lot of payroll to play with, we don't want to overpay...and therein lies the problem.  Winners want to win.  In order to coax quality free agents to come to Minnesota and play, we have to overpay for them.  We don't want to do that, and they would prefer to play for a winner.  So, we end up sifting thru the scrap heap for the diamond in the rough.

[Doomtints]

The FO did a good job. And even better, now they can get a head start on next year.

[NASCAR Steve]

the FO just loves prospects

[akmanak]

The guy has been GM for two years now. Think he deserves a little time before he is hung out to dry.

 

The moves he made with exception of Esky didnt really have much affect on the team and I still believe Esky might be back.

[mazeville]

I for one am glad that we have a regime that does not sit on its hands at deadline time, one way or the other.

 

This team clearly could not contend without Sano and Buxton being healthy and productive, among other things, and had little chance to catch the Indians. So they turned expiring contracts into a bunch of prospects. Good. Makes it more fun as a fan and gives the team assets to use in the future.

[ThejacKmp]

 

While we've got a lot of payroll to play with, we don't want to overpay...and therein lies the problem.  Winners want to win.  In order to coax quality free agents to come to Minnesota and play, we have to overpay for them.  We don't want to do that, and they would prefer to play for a winner.  So, we end up sifting thru the scrap heap for the diamond in the rough.

 

I don't know. They were in on Darvish to the end and simply couldn't match the Cubs financial might. They also made fair market offers to Lynn and Morrison, dropping $20 million to take advantage of the market. I think all three of those set the stage for the Twins to be players in free agency. They're not going to get Bryce Harper or Machado but they'll be able to make some moves.

[ashbury]

"and then Jorge Alcala, who is now one of our top prospects in terms of pitching at the Double-A level."

 

Whew, enough qualifiers for ya? All he needed to add was "whose last name begins with the letter A". Almost damning with faint praise there; I'm sure he didn't mean it that way, so it was merely cause for a chuckle.

 

 

[ashbury]

They also made fair market offers to Lynn and Morrison, dropping $20 million to take advantage of the market.

Did they take advantage of the market, or did the market take advantage of them? Swooping in and making a late offer, to a player no one else has seen fit to step up to sign, has its risks too.

 

[Vanimal46]

This is a defining off-season coming up for Falvine. More financial flexibility and prospects to trade than I can ever recall.

 

I want them to put their stamp on this team and be BOLD. The boldest move they could do is recruit and sign Machado. Front load the hell out of that contract and give him $60 million next year if that's what it takes.

 

Be creative. Be bold. Put your stamp on this organization Falvey.

[TheLeviathan]

I like the high upside targets, I think that was a brilliant tactic.

 

But you can't finish second on players you want in free agency this year.  And this is where all those dollars and bodies you invested into the development system need to pay dividends.

[howieramone2]

 

This is a defining off-season coming up for Falvine. More financial flexibility and prospects to trade than I can ever recall.

I want them to put their stamp on this team and be BOLD. The boldest move they could do is recruit and sign Machado. Front load the hell out of that contract and give him $60 million next year if that's what it takes.

Be creative. Be bold. Put your stamp on this organization Falvey.

The defining draft was 2017. The defining trade deadline was 2018. Seems like you're missing a good show. 

 

The boldest move they could make is signing Kershaw and Harper.

[Thebigalguy]

I'm cautiously optimistic. Reportedly they tried to keep Escobar but his agent wouldn't bite with free agency a few months ahead, so they traded him. In return for players who, aside from Eskie, wouldn't be back anyway, they got a small boatload of prospects. This is how Houston did it. It paid off. If this year made one thing clear, it's that there aren't very many sure-fire free agents. Last year was exciting; this year, meh. Better to cut bait and prepare for next year. The Indians are too far ahead, they've been a .500 team, at best, ever since they started 9-15, and there are no wild cards to be had. Disappointing. Se la vie.

[kenbuddha]

The only way they sign Kershaw or Harper or Machado is if Falvey hits them over the head with a bat and Levine forges their signature. Guys like that aren't going to sign with the Twins just like Lebron James doesn't sign with the Timberwolves, there are better places for them to ply their services. First we need to start winning, then (and only then) will top free agents seriously consider Minnesota.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I don't know. They were in on Darvish to the end and simply couldn't match the Cubs financial might. They also made fair market offers to Lynn and Morrison, dropping $20 million to take advantage of the market. I think all three of those set the stage for the Twins to be players in free agency. They're not going to get Bryce Harper or Machado but they'll be able to make some moves.

The Darvish situation was a black eye all around for the FO.

 

They were "in," on him to the tune of $100isM over 5 years, which was an offer that was never likely to get a deal done. Darvish eventually signed a deal that was still considerably under expected market value. If he truly was a priority and the organization was actually willing to make a serious offer heading into FA then I have a hard time believing they couldn't have beaten the Cub's offer. 

 

That quickly morphed into the FO being wise not to sign him. If they could foresee his struggles this season then why bother with the 5 year offer + media hype in the first place? 

 

They dug Lynn and Morrison out of the bargain bin, which isn't anything new for this organization. They'll be players in FA ,if for no reason other than they won't be able to fill all their roster holes internally. The goal should be to aim higher than "value signings." IMO there isn't much to suggest that'll happen. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Darvish situation was a black eye all around for the FO.

 

They were "in," on him to the tune of $100isM over 5 years, which was an offer that was never likely to get a deal done. Darvish eventually signed a deal that was still considerably under expected market value. If he truly was a priority and the organization was actually willing to make a serious offer heading into FA then I have a hard time believing they couldn't have beaten the Cub's offer. 

 

That quickly morphed into the FO being wise not to sign him. If they could foresee his struggles this season then why bother with the 5 year offer + media hype in the first place? 

 

They dug Lynn and Morrison out of the bargain bin, which isn't anything new for this organization. They'll be players in FA ,if for no reason other than they won't be able to fill all their roster holes internally. The goal should be to aim higher than "value signings." IMO there isn't much to suggest that'll happen. 

 

100x this. somehow they went from "see, they are playing in the deep end" to "see, they were smart not to sign Darvish". It can't be both.....they wanted Darvish, they were no smarter than the rest of us on that front.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The Darvish situation was a black eye all around for the FO.

 

They were "in," on him to the tune of $100isM over 5 years, which was an offer that was never likely to get a deal done. Darvish eventually signed a deal that was still considerably under expected market value. If he truly was a priority and the organization was actually willing to make a serious offer heading into FA then I have a hard time believing they couldn't have beaten the Cub's offer. 

 

That quickly morphed into the FO being wise not to sign him. If they could foresee his struggles this season then why bother with the 5 year offer + media hype in the first place? 

 

They dug Lynn and Morrison out of the bargain bin, which isn't anything new for this organization. They'll be players in FA ,if for no reason other than they won't be able to fill all their roster holes internally. The goal should be to aim higher than "value signings." IMO there isn't much to suggest that'll happen. 

 

Oh man, I think this is revisionist thinking,

 

First of all, no one saw Darvish struggling this year. People thought the end of that deal would be a bear and people overreacted to Game 7 and said he wasn’t a true #1 pitcher but no one said “Darvish is going to get hurt year 1.” I don’t think we’re saying anything bad about the FO in saying they were in on Darvish. If the Twins had gotten him for 5 at $100 million, everyone would’ve thought that a good deal. Anything else is MMQBing. Front office personnel never pretend to be omniscient, it’s the fans talking afterwards who do (and then expect the FO to have been so beforehand).

 

And I also think you’re forgetting that the Twins were very much in. They had the top offer on the market for a good amount of time (3-5 days?) Darvish’s agents did the right thing and used that offer to drive up the price but it took a long while for the Cubs to bite. No one else was in on it – Yanks and Dodgers were watching luxury tax, Red Sox were interested in hitting, Astros went with a trade. The Twins came much closer than you’re giving them credit for to getting Darvish. (Thankfully they didn’t!)

 

That deal almost did get it done. Arietta got three years $75 and that was the other big arm out there. The market was depressed last offseason and it was a chance for a smaller market to be able to afford the biggest pitching name on the market. If not for the Cubs, we’d be bemoaning the albatross contract and Target would be selling Darvish T’s on the clearance rack.

[ThejacKmp]

 

100x this. somehow they went from "see, they are playing in the deep end" to "see, they were smart not to sign Darvish". It can't be both.....they wanted Darvish, they were no smarter than the rest of us on that front.

 

It can absolutely be both. They were smart to be in on Darvish for 5 years at $100 million. That's a reasonable price and though the contract will likely suck by year 5, you can certainly justify it for years 1 to 3 or 4.The Twins got into the deep end (not the deepest end but that's reserved for larger markets) for sure.

They also were smart not to sign Darvish at what he got. That sixth year is tough for a small market team with a bunch of young talent. That cuts into resigning guys (not a problem right now but FO couldn't know that at the time) and makes it much more likely you're sitting on multiple terrible years at the end of the contract. They knew when the contract got too large to be justifiable and were smart to back off.

Wanting Darvish last offseason doesn't make anyone foolish. Taking future events into consideration when evaluating past decision making is.

[ThejacKmp]

 

They dug Lynn and Morrison out of the bargain bin, which isn't anything new for this organization. They'll be players in FA ,if for no reason other than they won't be able to fill all their roster holes internally. The goal should be to aim higher than "value signings." IMO there isn't much to suggest that'll happen. 

 

C'mon. Lynn and Morrison weren’t the bargain bin. How long have you been a Twins fan? Rondell White was bargain bin. Tony Bautista was bargain bin. Juan Castro was bargain bin.

 

Lynn and Morrison were two guys who the market fell out on. Lynn’s qualifying offer, the (over?)valuing of draft picks, the desire of big markets to stay under the tax for this offseason, and increasing analytics meant that Lynn and Morrison weren’t going to get the long-term deals they wanted.

 

At that point, the Twins paid fair market value for one year deals. Both guys saw a chance to come to a team that could contend and build up their value for 2019 when teams are likely spending again. The Twins didn’t play it cheap – they played it conservative. They weren’t in on either guy long term because they have a young team and wanted to keep payroll flexible. They waited out the market and made two smart signings.

 

Neither worked out but that’s the way it goes sometimes. They weren’t in the bargain bin though. Maybe the sale aisle but that’s just smart shopping.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The only way they sign Kershaw or Harper or Machado is if Falvey hits them over the head with a bat and Levine forges their signature. Guys like that aren't going to sign with the Twins just like Lebron James doesn't sign with the Timberwolves, there are better places for them to ply their services. First we need to start winning, then (and only then) will top free agents seriously consider Minnesota.

 

Meh, I don't think its this. There's nothing inherent about the Twin Cities that makes a guy not choose it. Especially a summer sport. Guys go where the money is, period.

 

The real issue is that for elite players, there’s always going to be more money in big markets. Those markets can afford tax payments, they can offer more years and eat the bad years, they’re just always going to win.

 

It’s like me going to a silent auction with the Vanderbilts and the Du Ponts. When the fancy items come up, they’ve just got deeper pockets. If they want Manny Machado, they’re going to be able to make him an offer he won’t refuse. I’m going to be stuck shopping the next tier down. Which is fine – the Manny Machado contracts regularly turn bad and I might do better in that lower tier. But it isn’t going to be flashy.

 

It isn’t anything but money. Players go where the money is.*

 

* To a point. No one is going to the Royals. But the Twins have an exciting core and were in the playoffs a year ago. They’re not the Royals. Thank Flying Spaghetti Monster.

[Doomtints]

 

The Darvish situation was a black eye all around for the FO.

 

It was? There isn't a snowball's chance in hell I would sign Darvish if I were GM. I said all along he is too injury prone. Look at how many innings he has logged for the Cubs so far this year.

The Cubs have a good roster and can overpay for a guy like Darvish and still win games. The Twins are do not have that kind of depth. Giving Darvish what he wanted would have sunk this team for a long time. The Cubs are stuck with him until 2023!

Edited August 3, 2018 by Doomtints

[ThejacKmp]

 

Se la vie.

 

Not being a crank a-hole in any way. It's c'est la vie. Just FYI, an easy spelling mistake to make. Stupid French.

 

I concur on everything you said and think it's important to emphasize that the Twins tried to extend Escobar before dealing him. That was smart. And he was smart to want to hit the market. This is likely his only shot and a big kick down the stretch could really set him up. I'm assuming the Twins weren't dumb and didn't offer him a contract based on the expectation he will regularly lead the league in XBH.

Edited August 3, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

It was? There isn't a snowball's chance in hell I would sign Darvish if I were GM. I said all along he is too injury prone. Look at how many innings he has logged for the Cubs so far this year.

The Cubs have a good roster and can overpay for a guy like Darvish and still win games. The Twins are do not have that kind of depth. Giving Darvish what he wanted would have sunk this team for a long time.

 

This to an extent. The sinking part.

 

I would've signed him for 5 years. It was reasonable to expect him to be good for 2-3 years and then decline. $20/yr isn't crazy for a 4th starter, especially with inflation over a half decade.

 

We've also all written off Darvish but there's nothing preventing him from coming back and having a nice years 2-4 on that deal. There's no TJ or major injury that anyone can point to. It's just hard for the Cubs to lose year 1 when you know years 5 and 6 won't be pretty.

 

Glad the Twins didn't but I won't pretend I thought 5 for $100 was a stupid gamble for the Twins. It actually felt just about right to get a potential ace pitcher. (and FWIW I would've done the Arietta deal in a heartbeat as well).

[mikelink45]

As an anti Free agent commentator I am constantly against the big signing for players over 30. Someday I hope that someday we can get a study on the actual return for free agents signed by age and position. Pujols is a good example. For what he's getting paid he's a shell of his Hall of Fame self. I believe that you have to gather and develop the young players and when they're at a position where one or two changes can put them over the top that's when you make the investment but not like we did this year with Morrison and Lynn and Rodney and Duke and read and odorizzi

[Doomtints]

 

Glad the Twins didn't but I won't pretend I thought 5 for $100 was a stupid gamble for the Twins. It actually felt just about right to get a potential ace pitcher. (and FWIW I would've done the Arietta deal in a heartbeat as well).

 

I would have been all over Arrieta with no hesitation. The Twins could have pulled off the contract he got, too.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Oh man, I think this is revisionist thinking,

 

First of all, no one saw Darvish struggling this year. People thought the end of that deal would be a bear and people overreacted to Game 7 and said he wasn’t a true #1 pitcher but no one said “Darvish is going to get hurt year 1.” I don’t think we’re saying anything bad about the FO in saying they were in on Darvish. If the Twins had gotten him for 5 at $100 million, everyone would’ve thought that a good deal. Anything else is MMQBing. Front office personnel never pretend to be omniscient, it’s the fans talking afterwards who do (and then expect the FO to have been so beforehand).

 

And I also think you’re forgetting that the Twins were very much in. They had the top offer on the market for a good amount of time (3-5 days?) Darvish’s agents did the right thing and used that offer to drive up the price but it took a long while for the Cubs to bite. No one else was in on it – Yanks and Dodgers were watching luxury tax, Red Sox were interested in hitting, Astros went with a trade. The Twins came much closer than you’re giving them credit for to getting Darvish. (Thankfully they didn’t!)

 

That deal almost did get it done. Arietta got three years $75 and that was the other big arm out there. The market was depressed last offseason and it was a chance for a smaller market to be able to afford the biggest pitching name on the market. If not for the Cubs, we’d be bemoaning the albatross contract and Target would be selling Darvish T’s on the clearance rack.

You're missing the point. We agree that 5/100isM would've been a steal. We agree that the market was depressed. IMO that's all the more reason to question the desire to spend the $$ it takes to bring back elite talent. If they're making offers that clearly aren't likely to get a deal done in a depressed market, where as you said, the big FA players are sitting out, why should we believe they'll pay sticker price in 19'? 

 

Of course they wouldn't have predicted Darvish would have the season he has. The "foresee," part was tongue in cheek. What that means is they shouldn't be given credit for "avoiding signing Darvish," because they submitted a lowball bid, and they shouldn't in turn be praised for that low offer.

[KirbyDome89]

 

C'mon. Lynn and Morrison weren’t the bargain bin. How long have you been a Twins fan? Rondell White was bargain bin. Tony Bautista was bargain bin. Juan Castro was bargain bin.

 

Lynn and Morrison were two guys who the market fell out on. Lynn’s qualifying offer, the (over?)valuing of draft picks, the desire of big markets to stay under the tax for this offseason, and increasing analytics meant that Lynn and Morrison weren’t going to get the long-term deals they wanted.

 

At that point, the Twins paid fair market value for one year deals. Both guys saw a chance to come to a team that could contend and build up their value for 2019 when teams are likely spending again. The Twins didn’t play it cheap – they played it conservative. They weren’t in on either guy long term because they have a young team and wanted to keep payroll flexible. They waited out the market and made two smart signings.

 

Neither worked out but that’s the way it goes sometimes. They weren’t in the bargain bin though. Maybe the sale aisle but that’s just smart shopping.

They weren't huh? I guess I missed where they had interest around the league and the Twins were able to convince them to forego better deals to sign with them for 1 year and 1 year + a team option. 

 

"The market fell out on," i.e. bargain bin. 

 

They retained that illustrious payroll flexibility because nobody was willing to hand either of those guys a long term deal.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It can absolutely be both. They were smart to be in on Darvish for 5 years at $100 million. That's a reasonable price and though the contract will likely suck by year 5, you can certainly justify it for years 1 to 3 or 4.The Twins got into the deep end (not the deepest end but that's reserved for larger markets) for sure.

They also were smart not to sign Darvish at what he got. That sixth year is tough for a small market team with a bunch of young talent. That cuts into resigning guys (not a problem right now but FO couldn't know that at the time) and makes it much more likely you're sitting on multiple terrible years at the end of the contract. They knew when the contract got too large to be justifiable and were smart to back off.

Wanting Darvish last offseason doesn't make anyone foolish. Taking future events into consideration when evaluating past decision making is.

 

I pretty much said the same thing.....but post after post on this site is saying the Twins are smart because they did not sign him at all, not because they offered only 5 years.

[KirbyDome89]

 

It was? There isn't a snowball's chance in hell I would sign Darvish if I were GM. I said all along he is too injury prone. Look at how many innings he has logged for the Cubs so far this year.

The Cubs have a good roster and can overpay for a guy like Darvish and still win games. The Twins are do not have that kind of depth. Giving Darvish what he wanted would have sunk this team for a long time. The Cubs are stuck with him until 2023!

That's great for you but it's irrelevant to the conversation.

 

Reality is that the Twins made an offer, albeit low, and weren't successful. We shouldn't be praising them for avoiding an apparent mistake that they obviously had some intention to make. 

[Squirrel]

This is a defining off-season coming up for Falvine. More financial flexibility and prospects to trade than I can ever recall.

I want them to put their stamp on this team and be BOLD. The boldest move they could do is recruit and sign Machado. Front load the hell out of that contract and give him $60 million next year if that's what it takes.

Be creative. Be bold. Put your stamp on this organization Falvey.

Concur. I’m about at the end of my rope with this team. I worry, though, when the GM says there’s financial flexibility to be creative. To me ... creative ... isn’t about an obvious move (Machado). But ... can’t complain about what hasn’t happened yet. But I’ll be highly critical if it’s too far short of expectations.