Article: 7 Critical Twins Players to Track in the Final Months

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don’t think Odorizzi is set in stone. Light pencil maybe. He is certainly a non tender candidate. If Pineda comes back and looks good in September, I think he is almost certain to be unless he shows dramatic improvement.

What’s the point of spending of $8 mil (likely his 2019 arb award) on a .7 bWAR pitcher who rarely goes deeper than 5 innings? The Twins are getting that from Mejia for $ 600 K.

 

Two points:

 

Certainty has real value. They can be relatively sure Odorizzi will pitch 30ish games next year. That has real value.

 

I believe ODO has an option left....so if they want, they can send him down.

 

Bonus:

He strikes me as a guy that would REALLY do well with a move to the bullpen. If htey somehow have "too many" SPs next year, I'd move him over. You can always move him back, since he's a veteran.

[yarnivek1972]

That’s exactly what I’m worried about: 30 “ish” games.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I believe ODO has an option left....so if they want, they can send him down.

Odorizzi hits 5 years service time in 3 days, I think. And with that comes the right to refuse any optional assignment. So this isn't a factor anymore.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That’s exactly what I’m worried about: 30 “ish” games.

I just don’t see the cost outweighing the benefits.

The Twins have probably 4 or 5 guys that can pitch as well as Odorizzi has this year. If they tender him, it might preclude the FO from seeking a better option because “that slot is filled”.

Sure, maybe he would work in the pen. Maybe not. He’s never pitched in relief on a regular basis in his pro career. Some guys make the adjustment. Some don’t. Are you willing to risk $8 mil (that could be spent elsewhere) to find out?

 

IMO, the 8MM is irrelevant, I don't see any way, short of signing Machado or Harper, they spend their budget next year.

 

I really think we under value certainty a lot when talking about  moving to a minor league pitcher....we also under value the ability to send guys up and down.

 

I would not be surprised if they keep him, I would not be surprised if they don't.

 

As for the "better option"......IMO, given their depth, they aren't signing 2 (or trading for 2) new SP next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Odorizzi hits 5 years service time in 3 days, I think. And with that comes the right to refuse any optional assignment. So this isn't a factor anymore.

 

thanks, it only slightly changes my opinion, but it lessons it a tiny bit. Like, barely can see it, it is so small....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins have probably 4 or 5 guys that can pitch as well as Odorizzi has this year. If they tender him, it might preclude the FO from seeking a better option because “that slot is filled”.

Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

 

The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

 

Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

 

And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

[yarnivek1972]

IMO, the 8MM is irrelevant, I don't see any way, short of signing Machado or Harper, they spend their budget next year.

 

I really think we under value certainty a lot when talking about moving to a minor league pitcher....we also under value the ability to send guys up and down.

 

I would not be surprised if they keep him, I would not be surprised if they don't.

 

As for the "better option"......IMO, given their depth, they aren't signing 2 (or trading for 2) new SP next year.

Since neither you or I know what their budget will be, that is a meaningless statement. I’d say it is pretty likely they spend whatever Pohlad allows. Will that be less than 2018? Almost certainly. A lot less? Probably. 20% less? Wouldn’t surprise me.

 

I don’t mind certainty as long as it is sufficient quality. Odorizzi almost certainly won’t pitch even 170 innings this year. Keeping in mind he had the advantage (such as it was) of starting the first game of the season. Odorizzi will also almost certainly see his ERA and WHIP go up for the fourth consecutive season. That’s not good. He’s going to post about a .7 or .8 bWAR this year. Isn’t that the definition of someone you should be looking to replace?

 

You’re right. The Twins are not likely to pursue two new starting pitchers. But, maybe if they jettison Odorizzi, they will go after one who will be better. Hopefully someone trending in the right direction.

[jimmer]

Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

 

The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

 

Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

 

And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

yeah, there is a difference between depth and MLB quality depth.

[yarnivek1972]

Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

 

The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

 

Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

 

And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

Odorizzi isn’t league average and is trending the wrong way.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

 

The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

 

Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

 

And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

 

The big difference between 2019 and every other year is the volume of prospects available to fill that role. We've relied on cast offs such as Deduno or just tons of org filler (PJ Walters anyone?) to fill those roles.

 

Don't get me wrong, I expect guys like Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart to struggle when they get their shot... Maybe we get lucky and they don't, but we really do have a fairly large list of guys that could provide some of that quality major league depth that Jimmer specified in another post, and quite a few of them have the upside to make it work. We aren't stocked with non-prospects in Rochester anymore.

 

Truthfully, I think they may need to trade off some of their SP prospects in the not so distant future. They have way too many of them with guys like Wells and Graterol nipping on their heels. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Odorizzi isn’t league average and is trending the wrong way.

Yeah, he is league average. ERA+ of 95, FIP in line with his ERA. He's right around league average for starters.

 

Also, his 2018 FIP is just 0.20 above his career line. Odorizzi is actually having a consistently better season in 2018 than he did in 2017.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The big difference between 2019 and every other year is the volume of prospects available to fill that role. We've relied on cast offs such as Deduno or just tons of org filler (PJ Walters anyone?) to fill those roles.

 

Don't get me wrong, I expect guys like Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart to struggle when they get their shot... Maybe we get lucky and they don't, but we really do have a fairly large list of guys that could provide some of that quality major league depth that Jimmer specified in another post, and quite a few of them have the upside to make it work. We aren't stocked with non-prospects in Rochester anymore.

 

Truthfully, I think they may need to trade off some of their SP prospects in the not so distant future. They have way too many of them with guys like Wells and Graterol nipping on their heels. 

The Twins have some interesting starting prospects coming up but the thing about pitching prospects is that they tend to disappear overnight.

 

I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched. We see rotation attrition in every baseball season. If those guys are healthy and good, they'll get their shot as the pitchers in front of them are injured and/or ineffective. The Twins couldn't even make it to Opening Day this season without losing their 2017 All-Star starting pitcher.

 

And if several of those prospects manage to be healthy and good at the same time, that's not really a problem... But counting on that to happen and trading away an established starter before they've proven themselves is a good way to enjoy a season of Andrew Albers at Target Field.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins have some interesting starting prospects coming up but the thing about pitching prospects is that they tend to disappear overnight.

 

I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched. We see rotation attrition in every baseball season. If those guys are healthy and good, they'll get their shot as the pitchers in front of them are injured and/or ineffective. The Twins couldn't even make it to Opening Day this season without losing their 2017 All-Star starting pitcher.

 

And if several of those prospects manage to be healthy and good at the same time, that's not really a problem... But counting on that to happen and trading away an established starter before they've proven themselves is a good way to enjoy a season of Andrew Albers at Target Field.

 

I don't really disagree with anything you said here, but I just think there's a pretty huge difference between guys like Gonsalves, Thorpe, Littell, Romero, Slegers, May, and Mejia in comparison to guys like Walters, Albers, and Deduno. 

 

Now that said, I'd certainly be fine flipping one or more of those guys for an established ML need (such as C or a 1B/DH type), as we have too many of them and more coming behind them. But I can also see why we might flip a guy like Odorizzi to make room for them too. It really comes down to how many open spots the FO is willing to roll with. Right now, our sure things to be in the rotation are Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, and most likely Pineda. That's a lot of guys for 1 spot, and I personally struggle with the idea that May and Mejia won't be able to outperform Odorizzi in 2019. 

[jorgenswest]

Yeah, he is league average. ERA+ of 95, FIP in line with his ERA. He's right around league average for starters.

 

Also, his 2018 FIP is just 0.20 above his career line. Odorizzi is actually having a consistently better season in 2018 than he did in 2017.

This is correct. The ERA+ of starters as a whole is almost always in that range.

 

It would be folly to project based on WAR or ERA or FIP but the Two s have a bunch more data in order to project next year. If he projects similarly or better they absolutely should take him to arbitration.

 

I am also intrigued by the opener. He might be a good fit for a pitcher to come in following an opener with his reported better success twice through the line up.

[wsnydes]

The correct answer it doesnt matter. The front office is already planning to give up next year and sell so we get more prospects. We should plan on the front office calling it a season as soon as we are 5 games back. They dedinately wont do in season reinforcements. Keep expectations real and root for the Yankees future star pitcher (Gibson)or some other big markets future players as we get them developed so we can trade them for more prospexts to trade......

If this was the plan, Gibson would have been traded this deadline. Since they hung on to him and anyone else with team control past this season (Pressly being the exception), that tells me that they still think they can compete next season.

 

They do have work to do this offseason, but with so many players having career worst type years, it may not be as much as it seems. I do hope that they bring in more depth as a contingency though.

[yarnivek1972]

An ERA of 95 + is close to average, but is still below.

 

And as I said, trending the wrong way.

 

117 in 2015, 108 in 2016, 100 in 2017 and 95 this year. Not a significant drop year to year. However, 117 to 95 is a significant difference. One you pay. One you try to replace. It is certainly concerning that a guy who should be in his prime is getting worse. If you are banking on Gibson and Berrios being better (and the Twins certainly are) and if Pineda comes back and looks good - because that is what I indicated as a major factor in the decision - that makes 3. Mejia certainly looks like a league average pitcher. That’s 4.

 

So the question is again - are you really willing to spend $ 8 mil for a guy that might be your worst starter when Romero can do that for next to nothing and allow the team to use that $8 mil elsewhere?

 

I’m not.

Edited August 2, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Brock Beauchamp]

An ERA of 95 + is close to average, but is still below.

 

And as I said, trending the wrong way.

 

117 in 2015, 108 in 2016, 100 in 2017 and 95 this year. Not a significant drop year to year. However, 117 to 95 is a significant difference. One you pay. One you try to replace. It is certainly concerning that a guy who should be in his prime is getting worse. If you are banking on Gibson and Berrios being better (and the Twins certainly are) and if Pineda comes back and looks good - because that is what I indicated as a major factor in the decision - that makes 3. Mejia certainly looks like a league average pitcher. That’s 4.

 

So the question is again - are you really willing to spend $ 8 mil for a guy that might be your worst starter when Romero can do that for next to nothing and allow the team to use that $8 mil elsewhere?

 

I’m not.

That’s not how ERA+ works. The metric is drawn from ALL pitchers, including relievers, who usually pitch at a much lower ERA because they pitch in favorable matchups and hitters only face them once.

 

A 95 ERA+ is virtually spot-on for a league average starting pitcher.

 

As for Odorizzi’s declining ERA, I’m sure moving out of Tampa and then losing Buxton behind him for the season dinged his ERA a condsiderable amount, which is why I included FIP. And FIP says Odorizzi’s ERA is close to his performance (unlike last season, where FIP *hated* Odorizzi).

[jorgenswest]

Inherited runners are also a factor in the difference between the ERA+ of starters and relievers.