Article: 7 Critical Twins Players to Track in the Final Months

[SwainZag]

 

Yet, incredibly, these two are the only guys that have given Matt Belisle a guaranteed MLB contract since 2016.

And they have done it TWICE. Doesn’t really jibe with them being smart or knowing what they are doing. Unless you think 29 other FO teams are stupid.

What was wrong with the signing in the 1st place?  He was coming off a year where he pitched 46 innings to the tune of 1.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with Washington and they gave him $2M. It wasn't a bank breaker.  Bringing him back this year was a bit of a head scratcher , but are you really just going to use that to judge the front office's intelligence?   The uproar and outrage over Belisle on this forum is so blown our of proportion it's incredible.

[SwainZag]

 

I'll continue to read the wonderful game recaps on this website to stay up to date. I will not watch more than a few innings the rest of the season.

 

I guess I am the opposite and will probably watch a lot more Twins baseball than I have in the last 2 months.  

[yarnivek1972]

What was wrong with the signing in the 1st place? He was coming off a year where he pitched 46 innings to the tune of 1.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with Washington and they gave him $2M. It wasn't a bank breaker. Bringing him back this year was a bit of a head scratcher , but are you really just going to use that to judge the front office's intelligence? The uproar and outrage over Belisle on this forum is so blown our of proportion it's incredible.

And despite putting up good numbers, Washington made no effort to retain him and no other team made a better offer. What does that tell you about how teams felt about him?

[Vanimal46]

I guess I am the opposite and will probably watch a lot more Twins baseball than I have in the last 2 months.

Somebody's gotta do it to justify Dick N Bert's livelihood. My fair weather approach is applied to all sports I like. If the team is good I'm all in. If it's a lost season I find other things to watch.

[Mike Sixel]

After Sano, I'd say how Belisle is used will indicate more about this team than I want to know.....

[Brandon]

And despite putting up good numbers, Washington made no effort to retain him and no other team made a better offer. What does that tell you about how teams felt about him?

Even I think Belisle is done and I am anti player dumping. I dont question bringing him back but his performance clearly shows he is done. I think he should have been let go by the all star break at the latest. He can always be hired as a coach behind the scenes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I’m actually more interested in watching the team today than I was seven days ago.

I *hated* this team earlier in the season. They were the most frustrating baseball team I’d ever seen. They’d beat Boston and then immediately collapse against the White Sox afterward. Rinse, repeat.

Personally, I’m glad one-fifth of this team got the boot. I wish more would have been given the same treatment. They were an immense let down and embarrassing. Most of the veterans should be ashamed of how they laid down and died so many times in the first four months of 2018.

 

I get the sentiment, but this reads more like you welcome the freedom to stop watching, which is pretty much what Vanimal said. Not that you actually want to watch now.

 

I mean, Erv and Mejia weren't part of the problem of vets laying down, and they both just came back a week ago with a theoretical chance to help make the race interesting. The most interesting addition since then (Sano) came at the expense of most beloved vet to get the boot (Escobar). And we also added Forsythe. By your own admission, plenty of the veteran stink is still around -- for example, Belisle still came into a key spot last night, in what might be our last glimpse of a "must win" game this season.

 

Even if you fully endorse the trades so far, it's hard to see interest in watching the team as it stands today. Following, yes, but not watching. Hopefully more moves come soon, because they need them.

[SwainZag]

 

And despite putting up good numbers, Washington made no effort to retain him and no other team made a better offer. What does that tell you about how teams felt about him?

 

He wasn't even that bad last year and they paid him a small amount in $2M.  I don't get why we get so hung up on him around here.  

 

Edit: This is based on the signing last year, not the current one

Edited August 1, 2018 by SwainZag

[Elliot]

Generally, for a team to compete, they need to have the majority of the players perform up to expectations; a few players exceed them; and few, if any, fall far short of what they are capable of. It also helps to have one or two young players come on quicker than expected.

By this measure, the 2018 everyday Twins players were a disaster. Due to injury or suspension, Buxton, Sano, Castro, and Polanco have provided next to nothing. Dozier, Mauer, Morrison, and Kepler have been healthy for the most part, but have underperformed dramatically. The only everyday players who performed at or above expected levels were the two Eddies. Garver and Cave are really the only young players, and neither has over delivered on their promise. When 80% of your players fall short of expectations you are either facing bad evaluations leading to unreasonable expectations or just plan bad luck.

Pitching was a different story. Santana (health) and Lynn (performance) were the only real washouts. Berrios and Gibson have probably exceeded reasonable expectations. I would say that Romero fits in that category as a young player. Most of the bullpen has been relatively healthy, and overall has performed adequately. Rogers may be the biggest disappointment. A number of young arms have performed well in the minors and are awaiting their chance.

What does this mean for 2019 and beyond? An everyday lineup with Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Rosario, Kepler, and Castro/Garver performing at reasonable expectations is still very potent. Bringing back one of either Dozier or Escobar would not be totally out of the question either. Mix in a surprise young player (Gordon, Rooker, one of the new guys) and maybe one new veteran and the offense does not seem so inept. I expect nothing from Mauer, Grossman, or Morrison. The current pitching staff with the addition of a few of the young starters and pen pieces currently at AAA or AA should reasonably be expected to be competitive.

The big question is whether or not this is based on unreasonable expectations. I, for one, am not ready to give up on Sano and Buxton. They are players who dominated at every level of the minors and have performed well at times in the majors. As noted, Kepler has in some ways performed better than his numbers indicate, and still holds reasonable hope.

I am not advocating a stand pat approach; however, I do believe that the doom and gloom some are expressing is a bit premature for this group of players. While it is true that the next wave of stars (Kiriloff, Lewis, Graterol, …) won’t arrive until 2020 at the earliest, there is still a great deal of talent on the current 40 man with some good potential on the verge of arriving or available for trades.

.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

After Sano, I'd say how Belisle is used will indicate more about this team than I want to know.....

That's an interesting point.

I was just thinking, the front office really didn't decide to pull the plug on the season last week. The plug was pulled then, but the decision was almost certainly made by the end of the late June / early July losing streaks, barring anything crazy like a 15 game win streak (or losing streak by Cleveland). Which is fair.

 

But then I thought, what if the decision was made earlier than that? We signed Belisle on June 12th. We didn't use him in any kind of leverage spot until we were already negotiating to deal Escobar and Pressly. There was no competitive purpose to adding Belisle to the MLB roster at that time. Maybe we were just done competing, and moving on to other goals? Dropping Sano to single-A a few days later seems like further evidence (although I didn't mind that move so much).

 

If so, I feel like giving up then was a bit too early. It had been a disappointing season up until that point, but we were only ~5 games out of the division with almost a hundred games to play. Our playoff odds at Fangraphs still ranged from 9-23% that day. We could have shook things up at that point by dropping a vet or two, trying something new, but instead we let them all play out the string up to the deadline. And by adding the retread Belisle, we simultaneously blocked potential pitching reinforcements from getting extended looks in that low-leverage position. We even maintained LaMarre as our primary starting center fielder over Cave until we were 8 games out, for some reason.

 

To those that like the deadline trades -- what do you think of that? Should the front office have acted sooner? Not necessarily big buying (although KC made a couple guys available affordably in June), but anything to shake up the veteran malaise. I can understand the case for selling or not selling last week -- but I'm having a hard time justifying doing nothing (or worse than nothing, Belisle) for as long as we did leading up to that point.

[Riverbrian]

 

I agree. I would like to see Curtiss, Busenitz and Duffey. Have they used Duffey as an opener like they did May? I wonder if he would fit in that role. As a starter his first two innings were his best.

 

Great idea... It wouldn't hurt to experiment a little. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I get the sentiment, but this reads more like you welcome the freedom to stop watching, which is pretty much what Vanimal said. Not that you actually want to watch now.

 

I mean, Erv and Mejia weren't part of the problem of vets laying down, and they both just came back a week ago with a theoretical chance to help make the race interesting. The most interesting addition since then (Sano) came at the expense of most beloved vet to get the boot (Escobar). And we also added Forsythe. By your own admission, plenty of the veteran stink is still around -- for example, Belisle still came into a key spot last night, in what might be our last glimpse of a "must win" game this season.

 

Even if you fully endorse the trades so far, it's hard to see interest in watching the team as it stands today. Following, yes, but not watching. Hopefully more moves come soon, because they need them.

I’m currently trying to program an IFTTT snippet that turns off my television if it hears the name “Belisle” spoken.

[Riverbrian]

 

Yet, incredibly, these two are the only guys that have given Matt Belisle a guaranteed MLB contract since 2016.

And they have done it TWICE. Doesn’t really jibe with them being smart or knowing what they are doing. Unless you think 29 other FO teams are stupid.

 

Maybe 20 are 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I’m currently trying to program an IFTTT snippet that turns off my television if it hears the name “Belisle” spoken.

 

I'd pay for that!*

 

*except I don't watch the games on tv, so that would be silly of me.

[Riverbrian]

 

That's an interesting point.

I was just thinking, the front office really didn't decide to pull the plug on the season last week. The plug was pulled then, but the decision was almost certainly made by the end of the late June / early July losing streaks, barring anything crazy like a 15 game win streak (or losing streak by Cleveland). Which is fair.

 

But then I thought, what if the decision was made earlier than that? We signed Belisle on June 12th. We didn't use him in any kind of leverage spot until we were already negotiating to deal Escobar and Pressly. There was no competitive purpose to adding Belisle to the MLB roster at that time. Maybe we were just done competing, and moving on to other goals? Dropping Sano to single-A a few days later seems like further evidence (although I didn't mind that move so much).

 

If so, I feel like giving up then was a bit too early. It had been a disappointing season up until that point, but we were only ~5 games out of the division with almost a hundred games to play. Our playoff odds at Fangraphs still ranged from 9-23% that day. We could have shook things up at that point by dropping a vet or two, trying something new, but instead we let them all play out the string up to the deadline. And by adding the retread Belisle, we simultaneously blocked potential pitching reinforcements from getting extended looks in that low-leverage position. We even maintained LaMarre as our primary starting center fielder over Cave until we were 8 games out, for some reason.

 

To those that like the deadline trades -- what do you think of that? Should the front office have acted sooner? Not necessarily big buying (although KC made a couple guys available affordably in June), but anything to shake up the veteran malaise. I can understand the case for selling or not selling last week -- but I'm having a hard time justifying doing nothing (or worse than nothing, Belisle) for as long as we did leading up to that point.

 

I still believe that Sano and Buxton being sent down was when they assumed they would be pulling the plug.

 

When Romero was sent down... that was when they actually pulled the plug.

 

They then held the plug in their hand for while while the team went on a little winning streak before the all-star break and they thought about plugging it back in.

 

But decided to drop it on the floor and walk away after Kansas City swept us out the all star break. 

 

The team has been kinda plugged up this year. 

 

Belisle... If I had to guess was the answer to the question. 

 

Paul is there anyone you would trust so you don't turn Pressly, Hildenberger and Reed into cinders and that is why Belisle is here. 

 

I have no proof of anything I'm saying. 

 

 

[S.]

 

You do realize that the only change in terms of competing next year with the deadline moves is that we lost Pressly, right? So, while I agree the list is long, that's exactly why selling was the right move. This team had prohibitive issues both immediate and long-term. Moving those players had significant value to next year in the form of auditioning prospects now. Hopefully, we can find a solution or two and bring the required off-season moves into better focus. 

To clarify, I certainly think we can be competitive next year with some moves and some players getting their **** together. I also am absolutely 100% in support of us selling this year and trading our pending free agents for some minor league pieces. But the person I was quoting was also asking for a ton of things to all break right in their hypothetical situation, and while I think we can be competitive I would not be banking on us acquiring two top tier SP + two top tier RP + multiple other quality major league pieces, and my confidence in Buxton and Sano is not particularly high. I have expectations of improvement over this year, and I expect they'll be making a fair number of FA moves and trades this offseason, but that list was definitely more moves/lucky breaks than I'd be counting on. But that isn't to say I don't think we can be competitive in 2019.

[Kelly Vance]

 

And despite putting up good numbers, Washington made no effort to retain him and no other team made a better offer. What does that tell you about how teams felt about him?

It doesn't tell me anything. And it doesn't tell anyone else anything either. There are lots of things that we don't know, but most of us don't forge ahead as if we did

[Mike Sixel]

 

It doesn't tell me anything. And it doesn't tell anyone else anything either. There are lots of things that we don't know, but most of us don't forge ahead as if we did

 

You don't think if they thought he'd be good, that they would re-sign him? I'm not sure I follow.

[Major League Ready]

 

To clarify, I certainly think we can be competitive next year with some moves and some players getting their **** together. I also am absolutely 100% in support of us selling this year and trading our pending free agents for some minor league pieces. But the person I was quoting was also asking for a ton of things to all break right in their hypothetical situation, and while I think we can be competitive I would not be banking on us acquiring two top tier SP + two top tier RP + multiple other quality major league pieces, and my confidence in Buxton and Sano is not particularly high. I have expectations of improvement over this year, and I expect they'll be making a fair number of FA moves and trades this offseason, but that list was definitely more moves/lucky breaks than I'd be counting on. But that isn't to say I don't think we can be competitive in 2019.

 

I should have prefaced my post with that I knew you were just putting his post in perspective and that we should all keep in mind that this was a pre-existing condition. I think the takeaway from this line of thought is that we have a a great deal of upside and selling opened roster spots that give us a head start figuring out the pieces.

 

There are not all going to work out be we have many possibilities.

 

1) I would love to see what a 235 lbs version of Miguel Sano could do.

2) Romero and Gonsalves working out would dramatically change the trajectory of this team. There are enough other SP prospects that we will be in darn good shape for several years if those two guys can get r' done.

3) Let Cave, Wade, and Kepler sort out who is a starter and who is a back-up. Between them we should be able to come up with a good outfield.

4) I don't think Mauer is part of the problem but he is not exactly the solution either and we need to solidify that position. Let's give Austin a shot this year and look at Rooker in spring training. Maybe even move Kepler to 1B and spread the 1B/DH ABS out between Kepler, Austin, and Rooker.

5) Can we get Escobar back on a 2-3 yr deal

6. Use a couple BP spots for auditions the rest of the year. FA relievers are not the best investment but we may have no choice. Let's do everything we can to find internal solutions.

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

You don't think if they thought he'd be good, that they would re-sign him? I'm not sure I follow.

Hey, Mike, don't listen to me.  I'm just saying if the Boss wants to pay him, its his deal. Maybe the family needs money. I see him pitch and he doesn't look terrible. Then he does.  And with runners on. I keep hoping he'd get hot and shut his critics up. I'm pretty sure he'd clear waivers. 

[yarnivek1972]

You do realize that the only change in terms of competing next year with the deadline moves is that we lost Pressly, right? So, while I agree the list is long, that's exactly why selling was the right move. This team had prohibitive issues both immediate and long-term. Moving those players had significant value to next year in the form of auditioning prospects now. Hopefully, we can find a solution or two and bring the required off-season moves into better focus.

Except that there is no indication from the FO or the manager that they intend to do that. If they did, where are Wade, Romero, Busenitz, Curtiss, and even add Tyler Austin to the list?

Edited August 1, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Twinsoholic]

 

You're forgetting Pineda. The Twins don't need two starters. I'm not sure they even need one if Romero goes into the offseason looking strong.

 

You are correct: I did forget Pineda. I would disagree with you about the Twins acquiring 2 starters from trades and/or free agency if the 2 hypothetical 2 starters--I am thinking of 2 starters who are least as good as Berrios (a tall order I'Il  admit--maybe one comes from a trade and one from free agency). Having two more top starting pitchers helps take the Twins to the next level (well beyond Cleveland so that the Twins can battle the top AL teams in the playoffs), and it would give them a lot of starting depth in the minors in case of injuries and/or the need to make trades during the 2019 season. 

 

The Twins starting pitching depth in the minors is expanding--I don't remember it being this deep with strong prospects. Don't stop with what we have under contract for next season. Start next season with an even stronger rotation and a much stronger bullpen.

[Minfidel]

 

Another lost season and lost assests. The Twins have become the AAAA for the big market clubs. Contending and competing are 2 different things and the Twins are only competitors. When the competing is over by July they trade away their assets for hope and prayer prospects that have proven nothing at the major league level they need them to perform at. 

Contending in 2020 will only happen if current prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach turn into what we hope for and progress enough to get to the majors by then because the current roster is incapable of doing it without a monsterous amount of help.

What lost assets? They traded guys who are going to be free agents, or otherwise weren't part of the long-term plan? Pressly was the only one who's career could be considered to be on the rise, but maybe the FO doesn't like what's in his head. These guys (even Escobar in a career year) were chips, not assets. 

 

Assets are guys like those you mentioned, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Brent Rooker, and Trevor Larnach. Did you see any of them getting sent out in a lost season?

[mattk]

One guy I was really looking forward to seeing was Taylor Rogers. He needs a little more seasoning, but I think he's going to be a real asset (probably for another team). When he gets out on the mound, he's got the deer-in-the-headlights look about him, and no wonder--if he does struggle a bit he gets yanked. Don't know what the deal is between him and Molitor (or whoever), but he could get a little more leeway based on how much leeway much more experienced pitchers like Rodney and Belisle get. Now is the time to let him get more mound experience. Maybe I'm wrong.

[yarnivek1972]

Rogers is a good loogy, he just hasn’t been as effective vs RHB as he was the last two years. RHB have an .860 OPS. Last year it was about 100 points lower. He’s having his best year vs LHB to the tune of a .460 OPS. Of course, MOY keeps using him in non loogy situations. That doesn’t help matters.

Edited August 2, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Major League Ready]

 

Except that there is no indication from the FO or the manager that they intend to do that. If they did, where are Wade, Romero, Busenitz, Curtiss, and even add Tyler Austin to the list?

 

We are less than 48 hours removed.  They are never going to just go nuts with DFAing players to open spots the way some fans would like. Let's see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks.

[yarnivek1972]

We are less than 48 hours removed. They are never going to just go nuts with DFAing players to open spots the way some fans would like. Let's see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks.

And this is why many have called it a half-@ssed rebuild. As Lucy always said to Charlie Brown: don’t be wishy washy.

 

If you are getting rid of players that aren’t in the plans for 2019, then they ALL should be gone in favor of players who will be or might be. Any other way is just wasting at bats and innings.

Edited August 2, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Major League Ready]

 

You are correct: I did forget Pineda. I would disagree with you about the Twins acquiring 2 starters from trades and/or free agency if the 2 hypothetical 2 starters--I am thinking of 2 starters who are least as good as Berrios (a tall order I'Il  admit--maybe one comes from a trade and one from free agency). Having two more top starting pitchers helps take the Twins to the next level (well beyond Cleveland so that the Twins can battle the top AL teams in the playoffs), and it would give them a lot of starting depth in the minors in case of injuries and/or the need to make trades during the 2019 season. 

 

The Twins starting pitching depth in the minors is expanding--I don't remember it being this deep with strong prospects. Don't stop with what we have under contract for next season. Start next season with an even stronger rotation and a much stronger bullpen.

 

I think it's too early to tell. Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi are set baring injury. They are going to take a good look at Mejia. That leaves only one position open If he gives reason for the team to believe he is part of the solution. They have at least three solid contenders for the final spot in Pineida, Romero, and Gonsalves. Pineida is only a few days away from starting a rehab assignment. The Twins desire to acquire additional SP is going to be dampened if he finishes the season looking good. Romero is another guy who could diminish the odds of the Twins acquiring addition SPs this winter with a good showing the rest of 2018.  

 

They have additional depth in Slegers, Littell, DeJong, and even Stewart. Alcala will get here quickly if he can gain a little better control. I just don't think it makes any sense to say we need to SPs until we see what happens the rest of the season. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it's too early to tell. Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi are set baring injury. They are going to take a good look at Mejia. That leaves only one position open If he gives reason for the team to believe he is part of the solution. They have at least three solid contenders for the final spot in Pineida, Romero, and Gonsalves. Pineida is only a few days away from starting a rehab assignment. The Twins desire to acquire additional SP is going to be dampened if he finishes the season looking good. Romero is another guy who could diminish the odds of the Twins acquiring addition SPs this winter with a good showing the rest of 2018.  

 

They have additional depth in Slegers, Littell, DeJong, and even Stewart. Alcala will get here quickly if he can gain a little better control. I just don't think it makes any sense to say we need to SPs until we see what happens the rest of the season. 

 

I'd be shocked if they feel they need more than 1, and that would only be for one of two reasons:

 

leadership (and I think that matters more for pitchers, but they seem to really think it matter)

TOP END pitching.

 

They are set at number 4-AAAA types.....as you point out.

 

So, I don't agree that SP should be the primary focus. That remains MIF and 1B and C. The other option is to upgrade the OF by trading Kepler and some minor league players for a better OF, but I checked the leaderboards last night....that's harder than it seems.

[yarnivek1972]

I don’t think Odorizzi is set in stone. Light pencil maybe. He is certainly a non tender candidate. If Pineda comes back and looks good in September, I think he is almost certain to be unless he shows dramatic improvement.

 

What’s the point of spending of $8 mil (likely his 2019 arb award) on a .7 bWAR pitcher who rarely goes deeper than 5 innings? The Twins are getting that from Mejia for $ 600 K.