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Article: 7 Critical Twins Players to Track in the Final Months


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It doesn’t need to tell us anything. The coaches watching each at bat will see his growth long before we see it in fangraphs.

 

Growth isn’t linear. I think he will figure it out and start recognizing pitches and the switch will flip. At that point he just needs some time to sustain it in AAA.

But coaches watching his AB's in the first half tell them nothing about if he can keep from wearing down in the second half.

He clearly already has figured out how to recognize pitches in the first half. His issue is holding up for a full season.

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if they promote some younger players, and if the MOY plays them....I'm with you.

 

Yeah I hope MOY plays them.  That has been a problem in past years as well.  We need to figure out if Curtis, Businitz and Moya are the answer or if we need to find other players for those roles.  Would be nice to see what Trevor May brings to the table and I hope Meija proves more solid (i.e. longer outings) than last year.  Would like to see Romero gain experience and maybe even Gonsalves if they can find room. 

 

I really, really want to see what Wade can do at the MLB level.  He has been an on base machine no matter the level.  Only thing missing is power.  He needs to replace Grossman next year so they need to know what he can do this year to make that decision.  There are plenty of other options but they need to play these guys and I think\hope they struggle a little and then rise to the challenge.

 

I still think this is an exciting team whether they are in playoff hunt or not because I want to see how some of the young guys handle this level.  If players step up then 2019 should be a fun year because we should have more depth as a team and our farm will have some exciting players possibly ready by 2020.

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But coaches watching his AB's in the first half tell them nothing about if he can keep from wearing down in the second half.

He clearly already has figured out how to recognize pitches in the first half. His issue is holding up for a full season.

I am not sure the data supports holding up for a full season last year. Slash stats in a partial season are not useful. His strike out and walk rates in July of 2017 were pretty much in line or been better though his slash stats had fallen. This year those rates are much worse in AAA.

 

I think it is pitch recognition at a level where the pitchers are throwing a lot of breaking balls and off speed pitches. He has had that trouble in AAA from the day he arrived in May long before the second half.

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In 2010, I was breathing in that new concrete smell at Target Field, staring out at the downtown vista and thinking, 'Wow, this team is really put together well" We had added J.J. Hardy, Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome to  an already strong nucleus of Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer and Span. The pitching staff was effective, if not flashy (outside of Liriano who could still dazzle) and the bullpen of Guerrier, Crain and Duensing kept the Twins in enough games for each of the Twins five starters plus Crain to post 10 or more wins that year.

 

Fast forward to July 7th. 2010 - a day that will live in Twinfamy. Morneau gets kneed in the head and, from that point onward, the bright future and promise of the 2010 Twins comes apart like a truck tire disintegrating after a blowout. Whether from more unforeseen injury (Mauer's concussion and exit from catching) or an inexplicable fixation on Asian free agents, the team's recent history reads like The Fall of the House of Usher. (No, not the singer's crib, the Poe story - read a book!)

 

There have been an isolated pair of fluky competitive years since then, as if the fates of baseball tried to urge the Twins forward by ignoring the usual law of averages for things like batting average with runners in scoring position or by turning a blind eye as some first-year players posted Ruthian BABIPs (before regressing back to the inevitable mean) but even those cosmic nudges couldn't set the Twins franchise back on its once-promising course.

 

Perhaps ending this long strange disappointing trip requires an event of equal and complimentary force to the July 10th, 2010 singularity. I've already witnessed one such event in the Twins past - it occurred on May 8th, 1984 and set the Twins on the path to two World Series. I'm hoping to see another before this Twins baseball depression spans a decade. 

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Thoughts from the North Woods of Maine....

 

DFA five guys right now:  Belisle, Rodney, Wilson, Morrison, and Grossman.  Replace them with Nick Anderson, Alan Busenitz, Willians Astudillo, Zander Weil, and LaMonte Wade.  Plug them in and see what they can do during August.  Promote Trevor May and Matt Magill to be the co-Closers.  At the September roster expansion add Tyler Duffy, Jake Reed, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, John Curtiss, Aaron Slegers, Kohl Stewart, and Zack Littell to the pitching staff (and use them) and add Gregorio Petit, Nick Gordon, Mitchell Kranson, Brent Rooker and Luis Arraez to the bench and use them as much as possible.  Let's see what the farm system really has.

 

1.) Catching matters, especially with young pitchers. If you want Gonsalves, Mejia, Romero etc. to develop, you want a veteran catcher. Astudillo is not a long term solution and is not worth jettisoning Wilson.

 

2.) This is just the first deadline. LoMo will make it through waivers and Rodney may as well. Those two should keep playing as a result, we don't know what will happen over the next month and who might need reinforcements.

 

3.) Belisle should be gone. Depending on who can come up, Grossman would be okay too, though there is something to be said for having a veteran maybe?

 

4.) Disagree with many September call-ups. Guys who aren't ready for MLB don't gain anything by being overmatched and can lose confidence and develop bad habits. Gordon isn't ready. Rooker isn't ready. Arraez isn't ready. Other guys make sense but not all of them do.

 

5.) You also should keep playing a reasonable squad for fans. A mix of some high-level prospects (Gonsalves, Wade) and some older fan favorites (Mauer) is likely best.

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I like the Garver take. He could be a poor man's Brian Harper - not a great catcher but worked his tail off to become more than serviceable. Veteran pitchers can guide him along as well.

Give Buxton the rest of the season off. Give him time to heal and it doesn't seem like he's mentally there right now. Fighting a slump and injuries at the same time is tough enough, let along being a highly regarded prospect. Speed takes a little more time to develop and we can't afford another Hicks/Gomez situation where we give up too soon.

I think Cave is an interesting piece and having him as a 4th outfielder would certainly give us one of the strongest outfields in MLB.

Other than that, finish out the season with what we have a see what we got in the trades.

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Kepler has been very dissapointing.  He made huge strides against left-handed pitchers, but seemingly forgot how to hit right-handers.  I wonder if he's just a young guy who just doesn't get it, and keeps trying to do things his own way or isn't really focused.  Seems to have too much ability to be as badly as he's been.  

 

If Sano actually commits himself, I think he'll be fine.  Buxton, although it will cost him a little speed, needs to actually put on a little padding and play with some more smarts around outfield walls.  

 

I wasn't too familiar with Addison Reed coming into the season but haven't been impressed even from the beginning.  He doesn't seem to have much on his fastball or a really plus offspeed pitch and just flings it over the middle of the plate too much. Overall not too optimistic at this point about 2019 or 2020.  They've got a lot of holes and really need some things to break their way.  

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Thoughts from the North Woods of Maine....

 

DFA five guys right now: Belisle, Rodney, Wilson, Morrison, and Grossman. Replace them with Nick Anderson, Alan Busenitz, Willians Astudillo, Zander Weil, and LaMonte Wade. Plug them in and see what they can do during August. Promote Trevor May and Matt Magill to be the co-Closers. At the September roster expansion add Tyler Duffy, Jake Reed, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, John Curtiss, Aaron Slegers, Kohl Stewart, and Zack Littell to the pitching staff (and use them) and add Gregorio Petit, Nick Gordon, Mitchell Kranson, Brent Rooker and Luis Arraez to the bench and use them as much as possible. Let's see what the farm system really has.

You want 20 pitchers in September? How are they going to be used in a way that even comes close to replicating regular season usage?

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The dream of contention has died, and several longtime fixtures have departed, but that doesn't mean fans can't find reason to watch in August and September. I wrote last week that that the vision for a championship contender in 2020 remains intact. Can the Twins speed up at that timeline and become a serious factor in the American League as soon as next year?

That depends largely on a select group of players, many of whom will be on display and worth closely watching over the last two months of the campaign.Minnesota's roster has been whittled down over the past week, but plenty of remaining team members will be using the final third of the schedule to build toward better things next year.

Positive signs from these seven enigmatic figures over the balance of the season would be extremely reaffirming as far as the club's future outlook is concerned.

Miguel Sano

One way or another, Sano will figure into Minnesota's 2019 plans. Will it be as a third baseman? A first baseman? A designated hitter? Will he be a trusted slugger in the middle of the lineup, or a total wild-card coming off a roundly disappointing season?

We don't know the answers to these questions yet, but Sano can do much to provide clarity over the final nine weeks. First things first, he needs to start making some contact. Dating back to his return from the disabled list in late May, Sano has struck out in 36 of 84 plate appearances (43%) with the Twins, including six times in 10 plate appearances since his recall from a minor-league reset.

If he can move back toward his customary (though still extremely high) 35% K range, while starting to crush the ball with more consistency, it'll be a very reassuring sign heading into the offseason.

Monday's game at least felt like a step in the right direction, with Sano collecting a pair of hits (including a scorched double) and drawing a walk.

Mitch Garver

Already Garver is doing enough to prove himself with the bat. As an MLB rookie he has posted a .760 OPS, third-highest on the team, and that includes a .316/.409/.579 line in July. The 27-year-old combines a keen eye at the plate with strong contact skills and at least adequate power.

Questions mainly seem to surround his defensive aptitude. In spite of his offensive takeoff, Garver hasn't quite been able to tap into a true starter's regimen behind the plate, even with veteran minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson as the sole alternative.

As an outsider, it'll be a little tough to evaluate progress on this front. There are certain aspects of catching and receiving that are almost impossible to gauge as a mere spectator – rapport with pitchers, ability to execute a game plan, and so forth. I suppose we'll get a read on the coaching staff's perspective based on how Garver's usage behind the plate unfolds during the final weeks. Up to this point, Molitor has rarely had him catch on consecutive days.

If the Twins finish the year feeling confident in Garver as a backstop, it'll significantly lower the ambiguity around the position going forward.

Byron Buxton

It's been a nightmare season for Buxton. Can he wake up before it ends or will he carry its echoes into the offseason?

Crippling migraines, a trip to the disabled list, a broken toe, a horrendous stretch in the majors, a return to the disabled list, a demotion to Triple-A, another return to the disabled list, and now more distressing struggles.

Since rejoining the Rochester Red Wings on Friday after a two-week absence due to a wrist injury, Buxton is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts, amidst rumblings that the wrist is still bothering him. In 88 total plate appearances at Triple-A he has struck out 27 times (32%), which is tremendously alarming for a 24-year-old who had absolutely slain International League pitching in the past.

If he doesn't land on the DL again, Buxton will probably be back up fairly soon. Then, we'll get to see if the wayward centerpiece can start to find himself before time runs out on this season.

Max Kepler

Although his issues have been far less severe than fellow fizzling core components Sano and Buxton, Kepler's disappointing play has been arguably more troubling. Because unlike the other two, Kep's lackluster production can't be tied primarily to physical issues. He's been healthy enough to play in 102 of Minnesota's 105 games. There's nothing visibly wrong with him; he's even taking great ABs, tracking for a career-low K rate and career-high BB rate. But the results just aren't there.

Among qualified MLB right fielders, Kepler's .729 OPS ranks dead last, remaining almost exactly static with the past two seasons. The complete lack of offensive growth has turned him from a promising rookie into a stagnating below-average outfielder with 1,500 plate appearances under his belt, approaching arbitration and hardly locked in as a long-term starter.

He'd instill a lot more confidence with a big closing run that shows he's capable of translating the solid plate approach into sustained production. Right now this is very much in doubt.

Addison Reed

The front office's foray into free agency over the winter carried little risk. Lance Lynn and Zach Duke have already been flipped for prospects, and Fernando Rodney's contract for next year is optional (if he makes it through August). The only bold commitment they made was to Reed, whose two-year deal worth $16.75 million represented a record plunge for the Twins on the relief market.

So far the results haven't been great. Reed pitched fairly well early on, then seemed to wear down as the season progressed, and spent the past couple of weeks sidelined by elbow issues. Reed was activated on Monday, and owns the team's highest guaranteed salary for 2019, so it'd be nice if he could show any hint of getting straightened out the rest of the way. With Ryan Pressly gone, the Twins really need Reed to be a major late-inning factor in their bullpen next season.

In particular I'll be looking for a rebound in velocity. As you can see from the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed was trending downward in a big way before going on the shelf.
 

Download attachment: reedvelo.JPG

Fernando Romero

Unlike most of the others mentioned above, Romero isn't a concerning case at present. He has had a strong first year in Triple A, and a very respectable intro to the majors at age 23. But his continued development is essential to Minnesota's short-term outlook, so it'll be key for Romero to keep it rolling.

As you may be aware, the right-hander lost almost his entire 2014 and 2015 seasons to injury. He came back to log 90 innings in 2016, then ramped up to a career-high 125 last year before breaking down in August. He is currently at 110 frames this season between Rochester and Minnesota. Can Romero stay healthy and effective through 150-plus? If so, he'll answer one of the few remaining questions suppressing his stock.

Michael Pineda

Ah, the forgotten man. Minnesota signed Pineda to a two-year, $10 million contract in December as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The big righty's arm has now healed, and he's slated to start a rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League next week. If all goes well he ought to be up with the Twins for the final month, likely as a reliever.

As we look ahead to the 2019 season, Pineda's an awfully intriguing factor. He has a 3.60 FIP, 1.19 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 rate as a big-leaguer. If he returns at a similar level, he has a chance to join Romero, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson in a potentially formidable rotation capable of contending for a championship.

Which remaining players are you most interested in keeping an eye on as the season winds down?

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Sano

 

I agree with you. Getting him right is huge. His plate discipline has been better since his return which is encouraging but if he starts chasing crap again, Paul has got to sit him down for a game and say "take a seat, you are chasing crap again". By no means have I given up on the guy, nor will I, but we still need a safety net because of how he looked this year. Start him at both 3B and 1B throughout the rest of the season.

 

Mitch Garver

 

Unless we are planning on Wilson for 2019... Mitch Garver should be starting 7 out of the remaining 10 games. Hire a catcher coach that can quiet him down... make Garver stay after school. If pitchers are requesting Wilson as a personal catcher, let Garver hear that. Have a come to jesus meeting with the pitching staff, let them all work together on the problem. Let the pitchers invest in Garver and his development. 

 

Byron Buxton

 

We better not see Buxton the rest of the year. He should remain in Rochester so we can get the lost year of service time back in case he figures it out. 

 

Max Kepler

 

I agree... continue working with Rowson so he gets better handling pitches up in the zone. 

 

Addison Reed

 

I'm not worried yet. He is back next year... how he performs in the next couple of months is not critical in my opinion. Players have up and down years all the time. If he has had a drop in velocity maybe decrease his role in the pen and let him coast to a finish this year. 

 

Fernando Romero

 

I think he is going to be critical to our future and therefore not critical at all in the next two months. People disagree with me but I would rather prepare for the possibility that he might be the above average arm I think he could be. Keep him down in Rochester for the rest of the year and keep him out of Super Two status... that decision made right now could be worth a lot of money and that money could be worth a player when we are clicking. Let's see Gonsalves instead. 

 

Michael Pineda

 

Disagree with critical... I'll like to see him throw in September if he is ready but his first performances might be rough and I don't think we should be judging him or labeling his starts as critical. Just call it step one. 

 

The names I'll add are: 

 

Tyler Austin - Get him up here and give him a run and please give him a healthy dose of Outfield Play. 

Jake Cave - Give him a run... Give him a chance to show something sustainable. 

Ervin Santana - Got to make a decision on him for next year. 

Aldelberto Mejia - Got to make a decision on him for next year

Trevor May - Got to make a decision on him for next year. 

 

 

 

 

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I'll continue to read the wonderful game recaps on this website to stay up to date. I will not watch more than a few innings the rest of the season.

I’m actually more interested in watching the team today than I was seven days ago.

 

I *hated* this team earlier in the season. They were the most frustrating baseball team I’d ever seen. They’d beat Boston and then immediately collapse against the White Sox afterward. Rinse, repeat.

 

Personally, I’m glad one-fifth of this team got the boot. I wish more would have been given the same treatment. They were an immense let down and embarrassing. Most of the veterans should be ashamed of how they laid down and died so many times in the first four months of 2018.

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If the Twins have a 5 man starting rotation, Garver should be catching 3 of those starters. I think they moved to that 60% at the break. He doesn’t need more game work to continue his improvement. He will need to continue the hard work off the field. I think there is still a lot to learn from Wilson. I would keep him through the season.

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I really hope they bring up some of our Rochester relievers and see if they can contribute for 2019. Moya shoudln't be the only one called up.

I agree. I would like to see Curtiss, Busenitz and Duffey. Have they used Duffey as an opener like they did May? I wonder if he would fit in that role. As a starter his first two innings were his best.

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Honestly, their odds of contention in 2019 are just as good as they were at teh beginning of 2018. Only one player traded was a guy expected to be here next season. We can just as easily get Escobar back (who truthfully is the one player I think we need). I'd bring him back to play 2B and then move into a utility role when Gordon is ready. 

 

I don't think we need to add pitching (we may need to subtract it).  We do need to add some hitting help, and the FO did attempt to do that a bit. 

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Getting 2 very good starting pitchers alone in one offseason is a huge ask, assuming you mean actual top tier pitchers when you say "very good" You're asking for:

 

-2 very good SP (I would assume very good means something in the range of an ace to a solid #3)

-2 very good RP (I would say that would mean 2 RPs better than anything we have in our pen)

-2 players who were 100% failures this season to be very successful next season 

-a catcher who has never been good defensively to become good defensively

-sign or trade for multiple position players who all work out and don't require trading any of our good MLB players for

-players like Berrios and Gibson to maintain or improve their level of play

 

I don't think there is any perspective where your list isn't asking for a ton of things to all work out.

 

You do realize that the only change in terms of competing next year with the deadline moves is that we lost Pressly, right? So, while I agree the list is long, that's exactly why selling was the right move. This team had prohibitive issues both immediate and long-term. Moving those players had significant value to next year in the form of auditioning prospects now. Hopefully, we can find a solution or two and bring the required off-season moves into better focus. 

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I still think Kepler is being undervalued. His defense (by both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) has been a big positive this year (among qualified RF he's second to Mookie Betts in defensive value on Fangraphs), and he's been worth 1.5 fWAR (second most among Twins hitters now that Escobar is gone) and 1.9 bWAR so far this year. If you look at total fWAR (i.e. including defense and baserunning), Kepler is 13th among qualified RF. That's not too shabby.

 

Also, and I think this is critical, he's always had a surprisingly low BABIP despite a pretty good batted ball profile (lots of medium and hard contact, little soft contact and on the lower side for infield fly balls), but this year it has been ridiculously low at .246 BABIP. That makes him 151st out of 161 qualified hitters. And most of the ones below him on that list are sluggers who hit lots of high fly balls that are caught when they are not HRs. This BABIP has to at least be somewhat bad luck. If he even just had last year's BABIP of .276 (itself still quite low), he'd probably be hitting around a .770-.780 OPS and worth well over 2 WAR at 2/3 of a season.

 

I'm not saying Kepler has lived up to his potential, but I definitely think there is still a good chance he breaks out further. The BB and K rates look great, and his defense has improved a lot. And his numbers against lefties have improved. Once he gets even close to normal luck, he should be a well above average right fielder.

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The situation for 2019 is not as dire as many think if the following occurs:

 

1. Buxton gets his act together as a hitter and continues with great defense.

 

2. Sano shows significant improvement at the plate (and continues to be able to play 3rd base).

 

IMO 2019 comes down to your top two and that is it.

If Sano is close to all start level (2017 pre all star break)

and Buxton is .80% of the second half of 2017)

The rest will take care of it self.

I can't see the FO going out and getting 2 startering pitchers or even one. They did that last year with Odorizzi/Lynn and Pineda.

You would assume, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda and Romero will be the projected starting five going into next year.

 

 

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3. The front office signs and/or trades for two very good starting pitchers. The Twins have Berrios and Gibson, and they have Odorizzi and Mejia under contract. There are prospects such as Romero, Gonsalves, Alcala and Thorpe who could/should be knocking/kicking on the door.

You're forgetting Pineda. The Twins don't need two starters. I'm not sure they even need one if Romero goes into the offseason looking strong.

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You're forgetting Pineda. The Twins don't need two starters. I'm not sure they even need one if Romero goes into the offseason looking strong.

I could see them signing someone like Annibal Sanchez again and actually sticking with it. More or less AAA depth that won't kill the team if he has to start 3-4 games in a row for them.

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If the front office knew what they were doing wouldn't we be contending right now?  They didn't do anything when they had the chance when they needed more contingencies and didn't do anything cause they gave up back in April.  

 

as far as aquiring more Palka and Park and That one power hitter who went to the Braves minor leagues but never made it but had lots of power and drove in lots of runs....  ya aquiring more of them eh...  more Terry Ryan moves.  I didn't know he still worked here.

The answer is No. The FO put the team in position to contend, strengthening the rotation and bullpen, but injuries and regression prevented that. It happens. So I disagree completely with your perspective. Now they just turned a bunch of guys with two months left on their contracts into a bunch of young prospects, including a guy that throws over 100 mph.... and some major league ready guys, including a RH hitting 1b man to spell Joe.  These guys are smart and patient and know what they are doing. 

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The answer is No. The FO put the team in position to contend, strengthening the rotation and bullpen, but injuries and regression prevented that. It happens. So I disagree completely with your perspective. Now they just turned a bunch of guys with two months left on their contracts into a bunch of young prospects, including a guy that throws over 100 mph.... and some major league ready guys, including a RH hitting 1b man to spell Joe. These guys are smart and patient and know what they are doing.

Yet, incredibly, these two are the only guys that have given Matt Belisle a guaranteed MLB contract since 2016.

 

And they have done it TWICE. Doesn’t really jibe with them being smart or knowing what they are doing. Unless you think 29 other FO teams are stupid.

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Yet, incredibly, these two are the only guys that have given Matt Belisle a guaranteed MLB contract since 2016.

And they have done it TWICE. Doesn’t really jibe with them being smart or knowing what they are doing. Unless you think 29 other FO teams are stupid.

I think Matt is a placeholder and nothing more. And for all we know, Molly is the one wanting Matt around. I don't get Belisle either. But you seem to be trying to prove the rule by the exception. I like most of the FO's moves the last two years. Belisle, yeah I am kind of with you on that one. 

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I think Matt is a placeholder and nothing more. And for all we know, Molly is the one wanting Matt around. I don't get Belisle either. But you seem to be trying to prove the rule by the exception. I like most of the FO's moves the last two years. Belisle, yeah I am kind of with you on that one.

Seeing as how it is pretty clear that they want Molitor out, that seems unlikely. And even if he does, that is not Molitor’s job. If they allow the manager that kind of authority, the FO isn’t doing their job. Sure, they seek input. But at the end of the day, they need to make the decision and be held accountable for it.

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The overriding question for 2019 will be the same as it was while the Twins were sinking out of contention in 2018...where will the offense come from?  So, in that regard, everything dwarfs in comparison to Sano.  If you have a 'good' Sano in the middle of the line-up, it moves the needle more than anything else will.

 

Along those same line, if Garver can catch, the incremental offense out of the catchers spot in the lineup moves the needle.

 

I think Kepler can have marginally better results...not needle-moving IMO.  Meanwhile,  it's crazy to plan on Buxton contribute whatsoever offensively going forward.  It can be a happy surprise if it happens, but at this point, the FO would be negligent to assume that will happen when they construct the 2019-2020 roster.

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It seems to me that the upcoming off-season is what this front office was hired for.  With the relatively small amount of cash committed for 2019, they have the opportunity to make a profound impact on the club for the foreseeable future.  Everything that happened in 2017 and 2018 was just setting the table preparing for this off-season.  I have no idea how it will turn out, but I have a feeling it will be fun to watch.

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