Article: 7 Critical Twins Players to Track in the Final Months

[Nick Nelson]

The dream of contention has died, and several longtime fixtures have departed, but that doesn't mean fans can't find reason to watch in August and September. I wrote last week that that the vision for a championship contender in 2020 remains intact. Can the Twins speed up at that timeline and become a serious factor in the American League as soon as next year?

 

That depends largely on a select group of players, many of whom will be on display and worth closely watching over the last two months of the campaign.Minnesota's roster has been whittled down over the past week, but plenty of remaining team members will be using the final third of the schedule to build toward better things next year.

 

Positive signs from these seven enigmatic figures over the balance of the season would be extremely reaffirming as far as the club's future outlook is concerned.

 

Miguel Sano

 

One way or another, Sano will figure into Minnesota's 2019 plans. Will it be as a third baseman? A first baseman? A designated hitter? Will he be a trusted slugger in the middle of the lineup, or a total wild-card coming off a roundly disappointing season?

 

We don't know the answers to these questions yet, but Sano can do much to provide clarity over the final nine weeks. First things first, he needs to start making some contact. Dating back to his return from the disabled list in late May, Sano has struck out in 36 of 84 plate appearances (43%) with the Twins, including six times in 10 plate appearances since his recall from a minor-league reset.

 

If he can move back toward his customary (though still extremely high) 35% K range, while starting to crush the ball with more consistency, it'll be a very reassuring sign heading into the offseason.

 

Monday's game at least felt like a step in the right direction, with Sano collecting a pair of hits (including a scorched double) and drawing a walk.

 

Mitch Garver

 

Already Garver is doing enough to prove himself with the bat. As an MLB rookie he has posted a .760 OPS, third-highest on the team, and that includes a .316/.409/.579 line in July. The 27-year-old combines a keen eye at the plate with strong contact skills and at least adequate power.

 

Questions mainly seem to surround his defensive aptitude. In spite of his offensive takeoff, Garver hasn't quite been able to tap into a true starter's regimen behind the plate, even with veteran minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson as the sole alternative.

 

As an outsider, it'll be a little tough to evaluate progress on this front. There are certain aspects of catching and receiving that are almost impossible to gauge as a mere spectator – rapport with pitchers, ability to execute a game plan, and so forth. I suppose we'll get a read on the coaching staff's perspective based on how Garver's usage behind the plate unfolds during the final weeks. Up to this point, Molitor has rarely had him catch on consecutive days.

 

If the Twins finish the year feeling confident in Garver as a backstop, it'll significantly lower the ambiguity around the position going forward.

 

Byron Buxton

 

It's been a nightmare season for Buxton. Can he wake up before it ends or will he carry its echoes into the offseason?

 

Crippling migraines, a trip to the disabled list, a broken toe, a horrendous stretch in the majors, a return to the disabled list, a demotion to Triple-A, another return to the disabled list, and now more distressing struggles.

 

Since rejoining the Rochester Red Wings on Friday after a two-week absence due to a wrist injury, Buxton is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts, amidst rumblings that the wrist is still bothering him. In 88 total plate appearances at Triple-A he has struck out 27 times (32%), which is tremendously alarming for a 24-year-old who had absolutely slain International League pitching in the past.

 

If he doesn't land on the DL again, Buxton will probably be back up fairly soon. Then, we'll get to see if the wayward centerpiece can start to find himself before time runs out on this season.

 

Max Kepler

 

Although his issues have been far less severe than fellow fizzling core components Sano and Buxton, Kepler's disappointing play has been arguably more troubling. Because unlike the other two, Kep's lackluster production can't be tied primarily to physical issues. He's been healthy enough to play in 102 of Minnesota's 105 games. There's nothing visibly wrong with him; he's even taking great ABs, tracking for a career-low K rate and career-high BB rate. But the results just aren't there.

 

Among qualified MLB right fielders, Kepler's .729 OPS ranks dead last, remaining almost exactly static with the past two seasons. The complete lack of offensive growth has turned him from a promising rookie into a stagnating below-average outfielder with 1,500 plate appearances under his belt, approaching arbitration and hardly locked in as a long-term starter.

 

He'd instill a lot more confidence with a big closing run that shows he's capable of translating the solid plate approach into sustained production. Right now this is very much in doubt.

 

Addison Reed

 

The front office's foray into free agency over the winter carried little risk. Lance Lynn and Zach Duke have already been flipped for prospects, and Fernando Rodney's contract for next year is optional (if he makes it through August). The only bold commitment they made was to Reed, whose two-year deal worth $16.75 million represented a record plunge for the Twins on the relief market.

 

So far the results haven't been great. Reed pitched fairly well early on, then seemed to wear down as the season progressed, and spent the past couple of weeks sidelined by elbow issues. Reed was activated on Monday, and owns the team's highest guaranteed salary for 2019, so it'd be nice if he could show any hint of getting straightened out the rest of the way. With Ryan Pressly gone, the Twins really need Reed to be a major late-inning factor in their bullpen next season.

 

In particular I'll be looking for a rebound in velocity. As you can see from the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed was trending downward in a big way before going on the shelf.

 

Download attachment: reedvelo.JPG

Fernando Romero

 

Unlike most of the others mentioned above, Romero isn't a concerning case at present. He has had a strong first year in Triple A, and a very respectable intro to the majors at age 23. But his continued development is essential to Minnesota's short-term outlook, so it'll be key for Romero to keep it rolling.

 

As you may be aware, the right-hander lost almost his entire 2014 and 2015 seasons to injury. He came back to log 90 innings in 2016, then ramped up to a career-high 125 last year before breaking down in August. He is currently at 110 frames this season between Rochester and Minnesota. Can Romero stay healthy and effective through 150-plus? If so, he'll answer one of the few remaining questions suppressing his stock.

 

Michael Pineda

 

Ah, the forgotten man. Minnesota signed Pineda to a two-year, $10 million contract in December as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The big righty's arm has now healed, and he's slated to start a rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League next week. If all goes well he ought to be up with the Twins for the final month, likely as a reliever.

 

As we look ahead to the 2019 season, Pineda's an awfully intriguing factor. He has a 3.60 FIP, 1.19 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 rate as a big-leaguer. If he returns at a similar level, he has a chance to join Romero, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson in a potentially formidable rotation capable of contending for a championship.

 

Which remaining players are you most interested in keeping an eye on as the season winds down?

 

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[Vanimal46]

I'll continue to read the wonderful game recaps on this website to stay up to date. I will not watch more than a few innings the rest of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

great post!

 

I'd add Rooker and Gordon to this list.....given what might happen to their positions next year.....

[jorgenswest]

great post!

 

I'd add Rooker and Gordon to this list.....given what might happen to their positions next year.....

Yes.

 

For players who haven’t seen action this year we might also Gonsalves and Wade.

 

As for Gordon I hope they guarantee his age 29(?) season by keeping him in AAA for at least the few weeks necessary next year. In fact I really want to see a good two month stretch at that level. I hope he can start that clock today and continue into next year. In any case the way he has performed as he moved up I would trade a few weeks of 2019 for a full year at the other end.

[KirbyDome89]

My man Jorge.

 

He's been silently steady since returning. 

[Brandon]

The correct answer it doesnt matter. The front office is already planning to give up next year and sell so we get more prospects. We should plan on the front office calling it a season as soon as we are 5 games back. They dedinately wont do in season reinforcements. Keep expectations real and root for the Yankees future star pitcher (Gibson)or some other big markets future players as we get them developed so we can trade them for more prospexts to trade......

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes.

For players who haven’t seen action this year we might also Gonsalves and Wade.

As for Gordon I hope they guarantee his age 29(?) season by keeping him in AAA for at least the few weeks necessary next year. In fact I really want to see a good two month stretch at that level. I hope he can start that clock today and continue into next year. In any case the way he has performed as he moved up I would trade a few weeks of 2019 for a full year at the other end.

 

I like Gordon, but even I'd keep him down for 2 months next year, unless he positively blows up this year....

[Mike Sixel]

 

The correct answer it doesnt matter. The front office is already planning to give up next year and sell so we get more prospects. We should plan on the front office calling it a season as soon as we are 5 games back. They dedinately wont do in season reinforcements. Keep expectations real and root for the Yankees future star pitcher (Gibson)or some other big markets future players as we get them developed so we can trade them for more prospexts to trade......

 

Based on what they did this last offseason, increasing the budget to its highest level ever, and trading a prospect for Odo? I just don't agree with this take.

[Monkeypaws]

Really, what have we lost? Escobar to be sure. Pressly? Opportunity knocks for someone else. 

 

Dozier, Lynn, Duke, they can be replaced. 

 

Combined 1 WAR between the three of them.

Edited July 31, 2018 by Monkeypaws

[S.]

 

The correct answer it doesnt matter. The front office is already planning to give up next year and sell so we get more prospects. We should plan on the front office calling it a season as soon as we are 5 games back. They dedinately wont do in season reinforcements. Keep expectations real and root for the Yankees future star pitcher (Gibson)or some other big markets future players as we get them developed so we can trade them for more prospexts to trade......

Good to know you already know their offseason plans, as well as their plans for the entirety of next season. Is this reaction entirely based on a bad team selling when they're well under .500 at the deadline, or do you have any sort of evidence to back up your claims?

[Nick Nelson]

 

great post!

 

I'd add Rooker and Gordon to this list.....given what might happen to their positions next year.....

Well, I was referring more to players we might actually be able to watch in Twins games. Possibly one or both could be up in September but I kinda doubt it.

 

But yes, Rooker and Gordon could very well factor into the 2019 picture. Rooker just needs to stay the course; it'd be really nice to see Gordon get something going in Rochester before the season ends. 

[Han Joelo]

One of my past gags was comparing some of these guys to the actual Magnificent Seven--both the original movie and the remake.

 

Out of my original 7, only Berrios and Rosario didn't make this, less auspicious list.

 

I looked up synonyms for 'uncertain'.  A few options:

 

The Dubious Seven

The Unresolved Seven

The Precarious Seven

The 'Hanging By a Thread' Seven

 

Take your pick, or choose your own.

 

 

[rv78]

Another lost season and lost assests. The Twins have become the AAAA for the big market clubs. Contending and competing are 2 different things and the Twins are only competitors. When the competing is over by July they trade away their assets for hope and prayer prospects that have proven nothing at the major league level they need them to perform at. 

Contending in 2020 will only happen if current prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach turn into what we hope for and progress enough to get to the majors by then because the current roster is incapable of doing it without a monsterous amount of help.

[rghrbek]

Nick,

I am glad you mentioned Kepler and brought up that he has been very disappointing. I am very worried about him at this point.  Hoping Wade gets some run this year not just in September

[Mike Sixel]

I too would like to see Wade up. Now that Buxton's season is probably over.....and it isn't like Wade is so young that losing a year of control matters (nor is he a superstar in the making).

 

Ya, I'd call him up now.

[terrydactyls]

Thoughts from the North Woods of Maine....

 

DFA five guys right now:  Belisle, Rodney, Wilson, Morrison, and Grossman.  Replace them with Nick Anderson, Alan Busenitz, Willians Astudillo, Zander Weil, and LaMonte Wade.  Plug them in and see what they can do during August.  Promote Trevor May and Matt Magill to be the co-Closers.  At the September roster expansion add Tyler Duffy, Jake Reed, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, John Curtiss, Aaron Slegers, Kohl Stewart, and Zack Littell to the pitching staff (and use them) and add Gregorio Petit, Nick Gordon, Mitchell Kranson, Brent Rooker and Luis Arraez to the bench and use them as much as possible.  Let's see what the farm system really has.

[ChrisKnutson]

I wanna see if Nick Anderson (MN native) can solidify himself in a high leverage role in the pen.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I too would like to see Wade up. Now that Buxton's season is probably over.....and it isn't like Wade is so young that losing a year of control matters (nor is he a superstar in the making).

 

Ya, I'd call him up now.

I agree.

 

I don’t think service time was ever a factor but options might have been a factor. There is no need to burn an option and send him down at this point in the year though. Even if he levels off as a 4th/5th OF, the ability to move a guy back and forth is valuable.

[cy1time]

 

The correct answer it doesnt matter. The front office is already planning to give up next year and sell so we get more prospects. We should plan on the front office calling it a season as soon as we are 5 games back. They dedinately wont do in season reinforcements. Keep expectations real and root for the Yankees future star pitcher (Gibson)or some other big markets future players as we get them developed so we can trade them for more prospexts to trade......

It isn't necessarily giving up next year to blow it up and start over.  Picking up all these power hitting corner outfield/first base types and plenty of money to spend.  What if FO actually knows what they are doing?  

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The only good thing about Buxton hurt yet again (back on the AAA DL) is that Cave should get an extended look. Let's play him against LH pitching, not just as a platoon guy, and see whether he can be a 4th OF or even possible starter next year. This year is all about 2019 from this point forward. Let's see what we got...

 

Should really open room for Wade to come up also, and take Grossman's place, imo.

[Monkeypaws]

 

I too would like to see Wade up. Now that Buxton's season is probably over.....and it isn't like Wade is so young that losing a year of control matters (nor is he a superstar in the making).

 

Ya, I'd call him up now.

You and me on the same page where Wade is concerned. He'd be at worst a better Grossman given his plate control.

[Brandon]

 

It isn't necessarily giving up next year to blow it up and start over.  Picking up all these power hitting corner outfield/first base types and plenty of money to spend.  What if FO actually knows what they are doing?  

 

If the front office knew what they were doing wouldn't we be contending right now?  They didn't do anything when they had the chance when they needed more contingencies and didn't do anything cause they gave up back in April.  

 

as far as aquiring more Palka and Park and That one power hitter who went to the Braves minor leagues but never made it but had lots of power and drove in lots of runs....  ya aquiring more of them eh...  more Terry Ryan moves.  I didn't know he still worked here.

[Twinsoholic]

The situation for 2019 is not as dire as many think if the following occurs:

 

1. Buxton gets his act together as a hitter and continues with great defense.

 

2. Sano shows significant improvement at the plate (and continues to be able to play 3rd base).

 

3. The front office signs and/or trades for two very good starting pitchers. The Twins have Berrios and Gibson, and they have Odorizzi and Mejia under contract. There are prospects such as Romero, Gonsalves, Alcala and Thorpe who could/should be knocking/kicking on the door.

 

4. The front office signs and/or trades for two very good relief pitchers. There are some options at AAA (Duffy has pitched much better of late--check out his ERA; and Anderson and Bard are options).

 

5. Castro is healthy next season, and Garver is able to improve his defense.

 

6. The Twins need to sign some free agent position players such as a second baseman (they can jettison Morrison and Grossman and Wilson). Perhaps Escobar will want to re-sign with the Twins. If Rooker plays well at AAA next season then he can be a call up. 

 

From one perspective this looks like a long list, but from another perspective I don't think it does. The Twins have a lot of money off the books as a result of trades. They have a deep farm system that has only gotten deeper as a result of trades. They have the player resources to go out and make trades for proven players, and they have the financial resources to go out and sign free agents.

 

Buxton's performance next year will be important for turning this all around, but the Twins could hedge their bets by trading this off season for a center fielder who can take over if Buxton looks like a bust in 2019. Let's assume the Twins don't sign Machado; they could still sign Ramos. The Twins can trade for pitching. I  suspect this front office will not be hesitant to do that.

[Dman]

I am going to be excited to watch the Twins games and see how the younger players do.  I am sure there will be some tough moments but at least we should know who is most ready to help contribute next year and help with 40 man decisions.

 

This team hasn't really lost much starting pitching so they can still compete this year as well.  Impossible to replace Esco's production the rest of the way unless Sano takes off but even with some younger guys this team still has a chance to get to 500 and if the Indians falter maybe make things close.

 

I guess I don't understand the doom and gloom of some posters on this site.  We lost some marginal players for the most part. This is still the same team or better if a few players step up.  If they don't we weren't going to make it with the other guys anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am going to be excited to watch the Twins games and see how the younger players do.  I am sure there will be some tough moments but at least we should know who is most ready to help contribute next year and help with 40 man decisions.

 

This team hasn't really lost much starting pitching so they can still compete this year as well.  Impossible to replace Esco's production the rest of the way unless Sano takes off but even with some younger guys this team still has a chance to get to 500 and if the Indians falter maybe make things close.

 

I guess I don't understand the doom and gloom of some posters on this site.  We lost some marginal players for the most part. This is still the same team or better if a few players step up.  If they don't we weren't going to make it with the other guys anyway.

 

if they promote some younger players, and if the MOY plays them....I'm with you.

[S.]

 

From one perspective this looks like a long list, but from another perspective I don't think it does.

 

Getting 2 very good starting pitchers alone in one offseason is a huge ask, assuming you mean actual top tier pitchers when you say "very good" You're asking for:

 

-2 very good SP (I would assume very good means something in the range of an ace to a solid #3)

-2 very good RP (I would say that would mean 2 RPs better than anything we have in our pen)

-2 players who were 100% failures this season to be very successful next season 

-a catcher who has never been good defensively to become good defensively

-sign or trade for multiple position players who all work out and don't require trading any of our good MLB players for

-players like Berrios and Gibson to maintain or improve their level of play

 

I don't think there is any perspective where your list isn't asking for a ton of things to all work out.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'll continue to read the wonderful game recaps on this website to stay up to date. I will not watch more than a few innings the rest of the season.

 

I might be more inclined to watch depending on who is added a when. I was sick and tired of watching Dozier try to pull pitch after pitch on the outside edge of the plate regardless of the situation. I am quite interested to track the progress of Garver and Sano. I looked up the stats for catchers over the past 2 months and Garver was 4th in MLB in terms of OPS at 15 points behind Realmuto for 2nd overall. We should get a look at some of our SP and BP prospects. Sano's progress is essential to rebounding in 2019 so that will be worth watching.

 

Cave is a great story worth following. Polanco makes for good entertainment if he gets back into the form he had for an extended period last year and anytime our young pitchers get a shot will also make it interesting to follow for me.

[Mr. Brooks]

I like Gordon, but even I'd keep him down for 2 months next year, unless he positively blows up this year....

Not sure what the first 2 months of next year are going to tell us. We already know he can crush in the first half.

I wouldn't bring him up until he shows he can sustain a respectable performance over a full season.

 

I wouldn't call him up b any sooner than September 2019.

[jorgenswest]

Not sure what the first 2 months of next year are going to tell us. We already know he can crush in the first half.

I wouldn't bring him up until he shows he can sustain a respectable performance over a full season.

I wouldn't call him up b any sooner than September 2019.

It doesn’t need to tell us anything. The coaches watching each at bat will see his growth long before we see it in fangraphs.

 

Growth isn’t linear. I think he will figure it out and start recognizing pitches and the switch will flip. At that point he just needs some time to sustain it in AAA.

[mikelink45]

 

The situation for 2019 is not as dire as many think if the following occurs:

 

1. Buxton gets his act together as a hitter and continues with great defense.

 

2. Sano shows significant improvement at the plate (and continues to be able to play 3rd base).

 

3. The front office signs and/or trades for two very good starting pitchers. The Twins have Berrios and Gibson, and they have Odorizzi and Mejia under contract. There are prospects such as Romero, Gonsalves, Alcala and Thorpe who could/should be knocking/kicking on the door.

 

4. The front office signs and/or trades for two very good relief pitchers. There are some options at AAA (Duffy has pitched much better of late--check out his ERA; and Anderson and Bard are options).

 

5. Castro is healthy next season, and Garver is able to improve his defense.

 

6. The Twins need to sign some free agent position players such as a second baseman (they can jettison Morrison and Grossman and Wilson). Perhaps Escobar will want to re-sign with the Twins. If Rooker plays well at AAA next season then he can be a call up. 

 

From one perspective this looks like a long list, but from another perspective I don't think it does. The Twins have a lot of money off the books as a result of trades. They have a deep farm system that has only gotten deeper as a result of trades. They have the player resources to go out and make trades for proven players, and they have the financial resources to go out and sign free agents.

 

Buxton's performance next year will be important for turning this all around, but the Twins could hedge their bets by trading this off season for a center fielder who can take over if Buxton looks like a bust in 2019. Let's assume the Twins don't sign Machado; they could still sign Ramos. The Twins can trade for pitching. I  suspect this front office will not be hesitant to do that.

Yes - this is a long list.  I hope for the best, but I worry that we have more movements around the edges and not direct action where it is needed.  FA are never the answer for me.